Gallup: Democrats Maintain Advantage in Fall Elections

[Mark E. Smith]

GALLUP NEWS SERVICES 8/16

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's "generic ballot" measure of voter preference for the fall congressional elections remains about the same as two weeks
ago, and has been in a virtual freeze frame since the spring. The latest Gallup survey, conducted Aug. 7-10, 2006, finds registered voters more likely
to say they will support the democratic candidate in their district rather than the Republican candidate by a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%.

The Democratic party held narrower leads on this measure earlier this year, of six and seven points in January and early February. However, starting
with a poll conducted Feb. 28-March 1, 2006, and in every survey thereafter, the Democratic lead has ranged from nine to 16 points.

(Later)

Another important gauge of the political winds leading into the fall elections is the approval rating of Congress. High approval would be a reassuring
sign for the incumbent Republican majority, but the current low approval could signal that voters are in the mood for a change.

Like the generic ballot, this measure has shown little movement for most of the year, continuing through the current survey. Twenty-seven percent of
Americans approve and 65% disapprove of the wat Congress is handling its job.

...At 26%, the 2006 average approval is markedly lower, and the worst Gallup has recorded since the closing days of the Democratic majority in the
U.S. House of Representatives in 1994.

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=24178

[saltpoint]

1. The Republicans need to do some soul-searching in the post-Dubya

era.

They shouldn't have let the little monkey get anywhere near power but they did, and they're paying the price.

If the Democratic Party benefits, it seems to me the nation benefits, if government is to be people-directed and not corporation-directed. Iraq. Halliburton. Abu Ghraib. Thousands of deaths. Fucked up health and social security landscapes. And lies and deceptions and smears as far as the eye can see.

The GOP gets what it deserves, and it deserves to be removed from majority status in both chambers of the Congress.

[Kolesar]

2. GOPs will find a new monkey and a new meme for 2008

And this well-funded candidate will have the audacity to claim that he is running "against George Bush". He will say that George Bush was too much like the Democrats in that he was militarily adventurous. He will say George Bush was also "big government" like the Democrats. Then the bastard will put the same corporate creeps in charge and proceed with the same damn policies that bush used.

[saltpoint]

3. A plausible strategy, but we will whip said creep and elect one of

the blue team.

I think McCain has crossover appeal (none at my house, but I mean nationwide), but after that, I think our people whip their people.

[Kolesar]

4. McCain is a threat

I saw CNN pumping him in a "documentary" last weekend. No, let's call it a "pimpumentary". The problem for McCain is that he is not young and that he does have some notable health problems.

[saltpoint]

7. Yes. He polls strongly versus potential health obstacles.

It might come down to how his kids are doing and whether he wants to swap being a dad to them with being president.

And you're right -- he might have to wait for his doctor to weigh in before making a presidential run.

[Maribelle]

5. That would be fine to search their souls,but they'll never find them

Some lost them.

Some sold them.

Some never had one to begin with.

[saltpoint]

6. Welcome to DU, Maribelle.

Have to agree with you on Republicans. You got it.

[Virginia Dare]

8. Great post....

welcome to DU!!!

:applause:

[newyawker99]

11. Hi Maribelle!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[damntexdem]

9. But to really know what was in the cards, Gallup would have to ...

interview a representative sample in every congressional district, to see how this breaks down.

Well, they could focus on races expected to be close and do representative samples in those districts.

[depakid]

10. This is why the poll is worthless

which is true of most Gallup polls.

[Exiled in America]

12. Instert obligatory reference to diebold voting machines here.

:)