'More disasters' for warmer world

[DoYouEverWonder]

14 August 2006

Rising temperatures will increase the risk of forest fires, droughts and flooding over the next two centuries, UK climate scientists have warned.

Even if harmful emissions were cut now, many parts of the world would face a greater risk of natural disasters, a team from Bristol University said.

The projections are based on data from more than 50 climate models looking at the impact of greenhouse gas emissions.

The study appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4791257.stm

[ERF]

1. What do you think is the first step we should be taking

to mitigating this problem?

[DoYouEverWonder]

2. Get new leaders

In the meantime, there are lots of things we can do has individuals to lessen our impact on the environment.

Here's a good place to start: http://www.apolloalliance.org/

[ERF]

3. What do you think the "new leaders" should then do?

[opihimoimoi]

6. What them Leaders should do? LEARN LEARN LEARN of the subject matter

and get advisdors who are not Peters/Cronies/Brownies/Chertoffs.

Find ways to advance Mankind through cooperation and unifying,

[acmejack]

4. Depends on how serious they are at truly stopping it.

Lip service are real action? True concrete action demands immediate, unpalatable steps. Bans on night flying, restrictions on auto-travel, even limits on coal burning electrical plants. We would need a team of eminent scientific experts to make these recommendations, not some fool on DU. But you get the idea. It will require some draconian steps, IMO.

[Delphinus]

5. Limits on population growth, imo,

is going to be necessary. People will howl and scream but we simply must, if we are to survive.

[ERF]

7. Isn't ecomonic growth a natural limit on population growth?

US population (minus immigration) is stable. Europe and Japan are actually losing population size.

Thus, the key in the long terms is to establish high standards of living and high levels of education.

In the meantime, starvation, abortion and your occassional genocide ought to suffice.

[Nihil]

19. News for you ...

> In the meantime, starvation, abortion and your occassional genocide
> ought to suffice.

Options 1 & 3 are about to increase significantly over the next decade.

Whether planned or unplanned, population reduction *will* happen.

[ERF]

20. Isn't news for me. I posted them to begin with.

Of course, we may also get a resurgence of old diseases or fun and fancy new ones to help thin the herd.

[raccoon]

21. The US, Europe, Japan, that is, industrialized countries,

are the ones using the lion's share of the world's resources, although they have a small percentage of the world's population.

[ERF]

8. Wrong on several accounts

First of all, you will not stop it. There is a good chance that a not insignificant percentage of the warming is actually part of a natural cycle.

Secondly, the amount of carbon already in the system will guarentee 1-2 degrees by the end of the century. The warming we are currently experiencing is from past carbon releases and we are accelerating it exponentially.

Thirdly, your suggestions are frankly impossible and would be more damaging to human beings than the unknown benefits they would have. Better, cheaper and more humanitarian to adapt.

Fourth, the technolgies exist to gradually slow and then reverse trends in carbon emissions using market mechanisms. The government of the US and all other industrialized countries need to create markets for renewables and put a tax on carbon. China and India will very quickly need to come under restrictions as well.

$400 billion would build a lot of windmills and foster a lot of research. Too bad we spent it on a war.

Total investment needed to convert global energy use to wind is about $5 trillion. That is actually not that much and over a 15-20 year period fully imaginable.

Gas in America needs to be $4 a gallon. (In Germany I pay $6.50 so $4 is still a bargain).

[NYC]

9. Gas prices are not comparable.

Our gas prices enrich the oil companies. Note their recent record profits. If we pay more for gas, the profits will increase. That's all.

[ERF]

10. You are joking right? Gas prices in Europe are that high

because of taxes. 75 cents a litre are taxes. The price of gas is Europe is as market based as anywhere else, except if a barrel of oil were free, we would still pay 2.50 a gallon. That is what the government gets.

If the US government would tax gas $1 more a gallon, it would cost 4$ . It could set a varying tax that always kept the floor at $4. Then the more gas you bought, the more taxes you would pay.

The increases in efficiency (because people couldn't afford to drive such huge, inefficient vehicles) would probably cause the price of a barrel of oil to drop and with it, the profits of oil companies.

[bennywhale]

12. In th UK most of the litre of petrol you pay for

IS made up of tax.

and people in this country know that (although aren't too happy at times)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_fuel_protest

See particularly 2nd paragraph for 75% tax level

[The Anti-Neo Con]

13. $4 a gallon gas will not encourage gas conservation.

I'll have to dig up this study I found online. It was written by an economist who basically said that consumers are not going to cut back on their driving habits considerably until gas reaches $10 a gallon.

Scary huh?

[ERF]

16. I have seen studies like those and they are often misleading

Some people won't change because of $4. Some will. Also, even $3 is causing people to buy more efficient vehicles. If I drive the same amount and distance in a car that weighs half as much, I still use less fuel.

Thus, "driving habits" can be misleading. There is a huge segment of the US population that drives vehicles far larger than they need, because gas is cheap. It will cause them to change their habits.

[bennywhale]

15. "China and India will very quickly need to come under restrictions

restrictions as well"

What about America. America refused to sign Kyoto. What kind of message does that send to the world about climate change.

Kyoto is by no means perfect but it is a start in the right direction and gave political momentum to the climate change issue.

It is something that can be built upon.

India and China can't be lectured to by the US who produce 1/4 of the globes emmissions and has a culture od waste and gluttonous consumtion when they still have people going hungry every night.

The climate change buck stops with the american government and the American people, both can and should act, both haven't.

[acmejack]

17. Sure, continue on your fool's path unabated!

Your children will die not mine. Let the Governments dawdle for another few decades. You don't have to the end of the century, sorry!

"We are quickly moving to the point where the damage will be irreversible," warned Dr. Jonathan Pershing, director of WRI's Climate, Energy and Pollution Program. "In fact, the latest scientific reports indicate that global warming is worsening. Unless we act now, the world will be locked into temperatures that would cause irreversible harm."

http://www.countercurrents.org/en-lobe160304.htm

DOZENS of the world’s cities, including London and New York, could be flooded by the end of the century, according to research which suggests that global warming will increase sea levels more rapidly than was previously thought.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2100776,00.html

Global warming looks set to be much worse than previously forecast, according to new research. Ironically, the crucial evidence is how little warming there has been so far.

Three top climate researchers claim that the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere should have warmed the world more than they have. The reason they have not, they say, is that the warming is being masked by sun-blocking smoke, dust and other polluting particles put into the air by human activity.

But they warn that in future this protection will lessen due to controls on pollution. Their best guess is that, as the mask is removed, temperatures will warm by at least 6°C by 2100. That is substantially above the current predictions of 1.5 to 4.5°C.

“Such an enormous increase would be comparable to the temperature change from the previous ice age to the present,” says one of the researchers, Meinrat Andreae of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany. “It is so far outside the range covered by our experience and scientific understanding that we cannot with any confidence predict the consequences for the Earth.

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7607

[ERF]

18. Running around and shouting the the sky is falling doesn't

help anyone. Even if you are 100% right, what you suggest is impossible. Since I am very serious about making the necessary changes, it is necessary to keep a level head and convince people that this change can be made in a logical, appropriate and consequential manner.

To carry out your suggestions would require a global dictatorship capable of exercising its will on everyone, everywhere. Because no nation is going to go down that path without being forced to.

Thus, as I said before, my method will cause far less suffering and damage than yours would.

[acmejack]

22. Agreed, but will it be a case of too little, too late?

As an old person I suppose the question is moot in my case, but I certainly am concerned for you younger individuals. In this particular case, I fear the sky really is falling, but I feel distinctly uneasy in adopting the stance that it is of no particular consequence to me personally.

I have taken my own small personal steps, but they are so inconsequential in the greater scheme of things as to be laughable. I might as well not even bother, but my own personal well being demands I do so. I suppose in the end it is for others to worry about, since I will be long gone by the time it really becomes problematical.

Good luck to you all, seriously.

[ConcernedCanuk]

23. "A single bag of money is stronger than two bags of truth.- PNACers mantra

.
.
.

and welcome to DU ERF

:hi:

[skids]

26. I think the dire predictions of horrible consequences...

...from draconian energy rationing are overrated, personally.

I agree with the rest of your points.

But, take, for example, auto travel. If we did restrict, for example, commuter travel (with a few exceptions), then what would be the real fallout? Businesses would have to reopen the branch offices they closed during their horribly misguided 80's and 90's "consolidation" efforts, and invest in telecommutting resources.

How many of the business air travel flights are really necessary? Come on, be honest. How many times do people really have to be on-site for something, other than the occasional installation technicians and site surveyors in the blue-collar area?

Who would really be hurt by that, other than an airline industry that has proven time and time again that they are not actually going concerns but rather a corporate ward of the state?

Methinks folks that rail against major conservation initiatives protest too much.

[zeemike]

11. What we need is a plan for the future

One that is far reaching and has a goal that is truly futuristic.
And that is not some pipe dream, but has been thought of already.
For instance in 1969 in National Geographic they purposed a mass transit system that would replace the auto as well as the airplane for continental travel. I won't go into the details of it but it was plausible enough for National Geographic to feature it, and if built would require far less energy than any system we now have, and it would also eliminate traffic accidence and a host of other problems that our present system is full of.
The free market cannot give us this, it must be a goal of the government just like the race to the moon was. If we wait for the free market to act it will be too late.

[theophilus]

14. Don't be a YOYO! We need an "FDR" approach. Try tons of stuff and

stick with what works. If we need to try a "quick fix" like sulfer in the upper atmosphere (brimstone?) then do it but make major changes for the long run. This is the most serious of serious problems. In human history the cycles have been survivable. With our "help" this one might not be. Let's do OUR part to make it better and make a goal to save every single species. It's a better goal than two hummers in every garage!

First step......get population growth to zero or below.



Don't be a YOYO!

The GOP has become the “YOYO” party………..”You’re On Your Own”. They would love to undo every liberal/progressive accomplishment of the last century. No sir, I don’t like it! I am against the YOYO party. I want to form the Anti-YOYO party. The emphasis will be liberal/progressive and environmental. The symbol will be a Tree.
I want all of the citizens of this country to know that they are NOT on their own. The government can care and the government can be made to work to the benefit of all. It will take some work, but it CAN be done. It will need a Rooseveltian program to save the country and, indeed, the WORLD. Climate change will kill us all. We CAN reverse what we have caused if we hit it quick and hit it hard. Details are in the Anti-YOYO Environmental Party platform. Let’s look at some of the planks, shall we?


1. Plant trees in every possible open space between the Mississippi and the East Coast. We need to restore the old ability of a squirrel to go from the Mississippi to the Coast without setting a paw on the ground. The trees will tie up carbon and put oxygen into the air. Fruit and nut trees should be planted in all public areas and along highways, etc. The populace is welcomed to use the fruit for their personal use. Animals will use the rest. Grassy areas need to be done away with except for designated natural meadows for wildflowers, etc. No lawns will mean no mowing. Think of the gas it will save. The shade from the trees needs to cover everything possible….houses, roads, buildings. There will be less runoff containing fertilizer and pesticide so the water will be cleaner.

2. Out west there needs to be a massive deployment of windmills for electric power generation. Farms that are struck with drought can still hold windmills and generate electricity. The farmers will be paid by power companies for excess power produced. A portion of that money will go to pay the government for the wind turbines, etc.

3. Out west and wherever possible there needs to be solar panels put on every structure that is above the trees or in the open to generate power. Same principle as wind mills, the owners will sell power to the electric companies and repay the government with a portion of the profit.

4. Plants will be built by the government, or private industry if they will do it right, to produce seedlings, build wind turbines, and build solar panels. Jobs will be significant and carry full health benefits. More jobs can be created to plant trees, tend to the forests, and help distribute needed parts of the process.

5. Organic farms, using the minimum pesticides and fertilizers need to be established and employ as many as possible with good salaries and health benefits. The food will be sold directly to the public at the lowest prices possible.

6. Universal single payer healthcare (Surgically Remove the Middle Men). This will allow a burst of entrepreneurial spirit never before seen. There will be more tax dollars taken in and the middle and lower class will do better and better. Believe me, it can work.

Some things we will ALL need to do:

1. Be happy with less. We need to realize and point out that GREED is a planet killing problem. For the religious, it is a mega bad SIN.

2. We have to be willing to tax the Corporations and the Rich in a fair way. They need to all give their fair share to save our country and our world. (They won’t be making much when their customers are all dead. To live a few months/years longer than the vast majority of the world is a silly goal.)

3. We must embrace environmentally friendly technologies, whether they are our first choice or not. Once again, your hummer won’t be much use when you’re dead or out of gas.

4. Stop wars of aggression and aggrandizement. Everyone should have clean water, clean air, AFFORDABLE and dignified healthcare, and a life suitable to pursuing happiness.

Make Government actually WORK for the people. Make it accountable and make it honest. (We might have to tinker with the Constitution a bit, but mostly we just need to enforce laws we already have.)

Possible slogans:

End War and Save Our Planet
Less is More (At Least You’ll Be Alive!)
Greed Kills Planets
Greed Kills People

Remember: If we do nothing, we are going to have to change. There just won’t be nearly as many of us to do it. Let’s make the choices now, hard as they may be, and live to pat each other on the back!

[militaryWife]

25. love this thread, and this post in particular

well said, realistic, and hopeful at the same time. Why don't you make it it's own thread? Lots of information in there to digest.

[Barrett808]

27. Good plan. Now if we weren't spending a trillion dollars killing Iraqis...

...maybe we could pursue it.

[Megahurtz]

29. Excellent Post!

Now if only we could convince the IdiotsInCharge.

[Control-Z]

24. Can anyone tell me where to find the most current,

single, credible report on global warming? I can't even convince one of my semi open minded liberal acquaintances that it is real. I would like to have one simple printed report to hand to him and to anyone else that doesn't believe it is happening. There was something from 60 minutes or another like program a while back - the WH had altered scientific data? - I can't remember where I saw it. Something like that but more recent maybe? Anybody know?

[DoYouEverWonder]

28. Sometimes showing someone a picture

is easier then trying to explain it. Maybe this will help?










http://www.net.org/warming/stills.html

[Control-Z]

31. I hadn't seen these particular stills.

I feel sick. Thanks for the link.

[humus]

30. stoke that furnace

why don't we use
the condition of the earth and it's elements
as a barometer for our country's health,
instead of the condition of the Fortune 500 companies ( i.e.stock market)?

[womanofthehills]

32. If unpredictable weather signals global warming

Here in the desert of New Mexico it won't stop raining. Flooding all over the state like I have never seen before. Vines are growing up my trees and all kinds of wild plants that I have never seen before are coming up all over my land. It is a shock. We have humidity like back east. No one I talk to ever remembers it being this humid here Very weird. In our local paper there was an article about scientists gathering in Santa Fe to decide if our drought was over.

[Nihil]

33. Yep

That's why it is better to talk about "climate change" rather
than "global warming".

Some places will be getting wetter while others have droughts.
Some places will be baking while others freeze.
Some places will see life unexpectedly thriving while others watch
cropland turn to desert.

All are changes. All are due to the abuse that humans of the last
few centuries have caused to the planet.

Climate change - it's a fact not a religion.