STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 15 August

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 15, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 890 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2061 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1761 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1722
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 14, 2006

Dow... 11,097.87 +9.84 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,069.04 +11.33 (+0.55%)
S&P 500... 1,268.21 +1.47 (+0.12%)
Gold future... 639.30 -5.10 (-0.79%)
30-Year Bond 5.12% +0.03 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.00% +0.03 (+0.68%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

At 1:00 a.m. ET this (Aug. 14, 2006) morning, a fragile peace has descended upon parts of the Middle East with the adoption of a U.N. Security Council Resolution mandating the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Let’s hope it is successfully enacted, the killing and destruction stops and peace holds.

The resulting ‘easing of tensions’ is already being served up by much of the mainstream financial media as the reason for steep declines in the price of gold and crude oil. Interestingly, or perhaps not, little or no attention has been paid to this newsy item from Chinadaily,

China's crude oil imports rise by 17.6%
(Agencies)
Updated: 2006-08-13 09:57

China's net import of crude oil rose by 17.6 per cent year on year in the first half of 2006, due to the rapid economic growth and booming automobile purchases.

Net imports of crude oil rose to 70.33 million tonnes while that of refined oil products increased to 12.03mts in the first half.

Net imports are calculated after subtracting the amount of oil China exported from the amount it imported. China imported 73.33mts of crude oil and exported 3mts in the first six months, Chinese customs officials said.

-cut-

Isn’t it incredible how supply disruptions and reports of greater-than-expected new demand of an increasingly scarce commodity have empirically led to lower – 72.85 / bbl at the time of writing - crude prices? Maybe we should all celebrate and go buy new Hummers?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Core PPI Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Aug
Briefing Forecast 17.0
Market Expects 14.8
Prior 15.6

8:30 AM PPI Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.5%

9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Jun
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior $69.6B

[54anickel]

13. Core U.S. wholesale prices fall 0.3% in July

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4DCC0258%2DCFC4%2D442F%2D8214%2D7AEEBBA6D7AF%7D&dist=newsfinder&siteid=google

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inflationary pressures at the wholesale level eased in July, but price pressures mounted for goods midway through the production process, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday The producer price index for finished goods rose 0.1% in July, below the 0.3% gain expected.The core PPI -- which excludes food and energy prices - fell 0.3%, the first decline since October. Economists expected the core rate to rise 0.2%. For intermediate goods destined for further processing before final sale, prices rose 0.5% in July. Core intermediate goods prices rose 0.7%, bringing the year-over-year increase to 7.9%, the most since February 2005. Prices of crude materials rose 3.1%

[54anickel]

14. Aug NY factory activity slowest in a year - NY Fed

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-15T123006Z_01_N15372305_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NYFED-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Manufacturing in New York State factories slackened in August to the slowest in more than a year, the New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" index of general factory conditions index fell to 10.34 in August from an upwardly revised 16.58 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an August reading of 14.80.

July's number was originally reported as 15.64.

The August index was the lowest since June 2005.



New orders jumped to 19.12 in August from 11.30 in July while the prices paid component fell to 44.63 from 50.46.

[54anickel]

15. Philly Fed sees slower growth, faster inflation (Yesterday's news)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-08-14T182857Z_01_N14305091_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-FED-PHILADELPHIA.xml&archived=False

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Growth in U.S. real output over the near term looks slower but inflation a bit higher than they did three months ago, according to a survey issued by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank on Monday.

The 51 forecasters pegged current-quarter growth in real gross domestic product at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the previous survey and not up much from 2.5 percent in the second quarter.

Growth in the fourth quarter was pegged at 2.9 percent, down from the forecasters' previous estimate of 3.0 percent.

The panelists raised their projections for consumer price index inflation over each of the next four quarters.

more...

[UpInArms]

17. item lines

(sorry I'm late to the party)

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE JOB INDEX 6.5 VS 6.4 IN JULY

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE PRICE PAID INDEX 44.6 VS 50.5 IN JULY

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE INDEX AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE '05

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY ENERGY PPI UP 1.3%

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 13.9

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. AUG. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 10.3 VS REV 16.6 IN JULY

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 7.9% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. CORE FINISHED PPI UP 1.3% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY CRUDE PPI UP 3.1%

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 0.5%

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY CORE PPI FALLS 0.3% VS. 0.2% RISE EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JULY PRODUCER PRICE INDEX UP 0.1% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. June capital flows rise to $75.1 billion - May rev'd down by $6 bill

9:00 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. MAY CAPITAL FLOWS REVISED DOWNWARD TO $63.6 BILLION

9:00 AM ET 8/15/06 U.S. JUNE CAPITAL FLOWS RISE TO $75.1 BILLION

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1AF29337%2D2B63%2D4ABB%2D8DF5%2D958B645CD40C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Capital flows into the U.S. rose to $75.1 billion in June, as private foreign investors bought more Treasury bonds and notes, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday. Foreign central banks unloaded Treasurys for the second consecutive month, selling $4.4 billion. In June, private investors bought $31.4 billion in Treasury bonds and notes, up from $21.8 billion in May. They also purchased $37.7 billion in corporate bonds. Net capital flows into the U.S. for May were revised to $63.6 billion. China held $327.7 billion in Treasurys in June, the ninth consecutive month Chinese investors' holdings have risen.

May's report had been $69.6 Billion - now revised to $63.6 Billion - hmmmmm - that makes a minus $6 Billion error (?) and those central banks are selling the buck :think:

(edited cuz I don't know what day it is)

[ozymandius]

3. Oil slips to $73 as Lebanon truce hold

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - Oil slipped to about $73 a barrel on Tuesday as a truce between Israel and Hizbollah held for a second day, easing concern over threats to Middle East oil supply.

Thousands of refugees headed home to south Lebanon and Israeli forces began pulling back from some positions they had occupied. Prices also fell as oil kept flowing from Prudhoe Bay, North America's largest oilfield.

"The market appears to have gained a degree of comfort..." Barclays Capital said. "There is still the risk of further upside should perceptions change again."

-cut-

Oil is up about 20 percent this year because of cuts to supply in Nigeria, Africa's top exporter, and concern that fellow OPEC member Iran's dispute with the West over its nuclear work could affect oil flows.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc

[ozymandius]

4. Japan tanker spills 1.4M gallons of oil

TOKYO - A Japanese tanker spilled about 1.4 million gallons of crude oil in the eastern Indian Ocean following a collision with a cargo ship, the tanker's operator said Tuesday.

Japan's Kyodo news service said the spill — which would be about 4,500 tons — may have been the largest ever involving a Japanese tanker.

The Bright Artemis tanker spilled the oil following a collision Monday with the Amar, a smaller cargo ship, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said in a statement. It said the accident took place when the tanker maneuvered near the Amar, which was in distress about 300 miles west of India's Nicobar islands.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060815/ap_on_re_as/japan_oil_tanker_9

[ozymandius]

5. Stock futures nudge up; Wal-Mart, PPI eyed

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures ticked up on Tuesday, indicating an opening rise on Wall Street, as oil continued to fall and investors awaited inflation data and quarterly results from retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - news).

By 0945 GMT, U.S. stock futures were showing opening gains of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent for the three main indexes. Oil slipped to $73 a barrel as the fragile truce between Israel and Hizbollah held.

"The Dow futures point to positive start in the US as oil prices continue their decline this morning," said Angus Campbell at Finspreads in London.

"Inflation data in the U.S. will also be closely watched both today and tomorrow. With the Federal Reserve expecting inflation to be dampened by slower growth going forward, they will not wish to see higher than expected figures."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060815/bs_nm/markets_stocks_us_europe_dc

[ozymandius]

6. Toyota Leads in Buyer Satisfaction, Study Says; Hyundai Gains

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp. led a customer satisfaction index as industry-wide quality improvements helped automakers earn their highest marks ever from U.S. consumers.

Toyota scored an 87 on a 100-point scale for the second year in a row on the American Customer Satisfaction Index. The overall index rose 1.3 percent to a record 81, while Hyundai Motor Co., which debuted with the industry's lowest rating in 1994, climbed to within three points of Toyota, at 84.

Enhanced quality, not the big sales incentives of 2005, propelled U.S. motorists' satisfaction with their vehicles this year, according to the index, which is produced quarterly by the University of Michigan. U.S. automakers still trailed Asian and European rivals.

-cut-

Hyundai, which is based in Seoul, has improved its score the most of any automaker. It scored a 68 when automakers were first rated in the index 12 years ago, compared with an 86 for Toyota. It ranked No. 7 on this year's index.

more

[trogdor]

11. I love my Scion xA

Made, of course, by Toyota. It's nothing fancy, just a damn good car.

[ozymandius]

7. UPDATE 4-HealthSouth may spin off units, posts smaller loss

CHICAGO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - HealthSouth Corp. (HLSH.OB: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it may spin off or sell its surgery centers and outpatient rehabilitation units to focus on its more profitable inpatient rehab hospitals, pushing its shares up 10 percent.

The company, still emerging from a multibillion-dollar accounting scandal that led to investigations by securities regulators and the Justice Department, also reported a narrower second-quarter loss due to cost controls.

Birmingham, Alabama-based HealthSouth said it hired Goldman Sachs to explore strategic options, including the sale of the surgery and outpatient units to cut debt so that it can focus on the inpatient rehabilitation market.

more

[ozymandius]

8. Google Maps Gets Coupons

Hmm? How do you prove to local merchants who lack tracking software or even web sites that search converts? Coupons! That's right, the conversion tracking tool that requires no internet connection, cookies or software has come to Google Maps.

Google provides more information on how merchants can get going with coupons at its local business center here (for those logged in with a Google Account). They're available for free to anyone with a local business listing on Google Maps.

How do you get those free local listing? Easy. If you're logged into Google, provide your real-world location information here (for the US, UK, Canada, China & Japan). Then a letter will get sent to that location with a PIN to verify your listing. Once that's added, you can assign coupons to your locations.

http://blog.searchenginewatch.com/blog/060815-053619

[ozymandius]

9. Hi and bye.

Good morning everyone.
:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's time to journey to the salt mine. I really hope you have a wonderful time on the thread. Mind you - we could see some surprised economists today. Be on the lookout!

Ozy :hi:

[JNelson6563]

10. Have a great day Ozy!

I am off to meet with my state House candidate in a moment but wanted to kick the thread before leaving since you're outta here too.

Some mighty jagged peaks on those future charts. Safety glasses recommended.

Will check back later. Hope everyone enjoys the casino today!

Julie

[54anickel]

12. Not Much Fizz Left in the Global Economy (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060814-mon.html#anchor0

There is nothing like the seduction of a boom. The recent vigour of global economic growth is a siren song. By International Monetary Fund metrics, world gross domestic product growth probably averaged 4.8 percent over 2003-06, the strongest four years since the early 1970s. As tempting as it is to extrapolate this into the future, that may be a serious mistake. There is a much better chance that global growth has peaked and the boom is about to fizzle.

The world’s main growth engine, the US, is slowing. That is the verdict from the labour market, with job growth in the past four months running 35 percent below average since early 2004. It is the verdict from the housing market, where an emerging downturn in residential construction activity is knocking at least 1 percentage point off the GDP growth trend of the past three years. And notwithstanding July’s temporary bounce-back in retail sales, it is a message from the consumer, whose inflation-adjusted spending growth fell to 2.5 percent in the spring period – one percentage point below the heady trend of the past decade.

America’s slowdown represents an important transition in the sources of economic growth, away from the vigorous wealth creation of asset bubbles – first equities, then housing – and back towards more subdued labour income generation. The delayed impact of higher interest rates is also taking a toll. Even though the Federal Reserve has put its two-year monetary tightening campaign on hold, there is a risk it has already gone too far. The confluence of higher energy prices, rising debt-servicing burdens, and negative personal saving rates reinforces the possibility of a pullback in discretionary US consumption and GDP growth.

This is an equally critical transition for the global economy. The world is about to lose significant support from the key driving force on the demand side of the equation – the American consumer. In a post-bubble climate, US households will be unable to save through asset appreciation, prompting America to increase income-based saving and reduce its claim on the pool of global saving. That points to a long-awaited reduction in the big US current account deficit – initially painful for export-dependent economies elsewhere in the world but ultimately a welcome resolution for global imbalances.

But who ill fill the void as the US consumer pulls back? The simple answer is; maybe no one. Europe, the world’s second largest consumer, is an unlikely candidate. Surprising economic growth on the Continent this year may be borrowing from gains that might have otherwise occurred in 2007. The European economy is about to be hit with a “triple whammy”: a big tightening in fiscal policy, the delayed impact of monetary tightening, and the drag of a stronger euro. Growth in the eurozone may exceed 2.5 percent this year, marking the strongest gain since 2000. Next year, it could slip back below 1.5 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

16. CA to Cut 1,700 Jobs; First-Quarter Profit Falls 64% (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ablbXwsUkPZc&refer=us

CA Inc., the world's No. 2 maker of mainframe computer software, said it will cut about 1,700 jobs, or 11 percent of its workforce, after first-quarter profit tumbled.

Net income dropped 64 percent to $35 million, or 6 cents a share, from $97 million, or 16 cents, a year earlier, Islandia, New York-based CA said today in a statement. Sales in the quarter ended June 30 rose 3.1 percent to $956 million.

The cuts come on top of 1,600 reductions in the past two years as Chief Executive Officer John Swainson struggles to revive the former Computer Associates from a $2.25 billion accounting fraud. CA, reporting results that were delayed by a review of stock-option grants, said pension payments and higher commissions for its sales staff lowered earnings.

``This company needs to cut costs,'' said Walter Pritchard, an analyst at SG Cowen & Co. in San Francisco. Pritchard, who rates CA ``neutral,'' spoke before the announcement and had expected CA to cut as much as 20 percent of its workforce. ``They have too many people.'' :eyes: Read the previous paragraph one more time after that last quote. :grr:

more...

[AnneD]

38. Oh no they didn't...

CA on Aug. 7 delayed reporting first-quarter results because it had been too busy finishing its annual report. That report missed its filing deadline because CA found $342 million in additional stock-option costs over a decade.

(Company officials will discuss the results at 5 p.m. New York time at 1-800-729-6829 or 1-706-679-5227.)

I included those folks number. I think the problem doesn't lie with their employees.:mad: Sorry SOBS.

[54anickel]

41. Heh-heh, funny how they buried that at the very end of the article - ain't

it? BASTARDS!!!!

[UpInArms]

18. Treasuries surge on softer-than-forecast PPI data

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-15T123640Z_01_NYG000321_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected July producer prices bolstered views that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to raise interest rates in the short-term.

The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.1 percent in July, sharply below economists' median estimate for 0.4 percent increase after climbing 0.5 percent in June.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> rose 13/32 in price for a yield of 4.95 percent, versus 4.99 percent just before the report and versus 5.00 percent late on Monday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

The yield of the two-year note <US2YT=RR> fell to 4.96 percent compared to 5.01 percent before the data and 5.02 percent late on Monday.

[UpInArms]

19. daily dollar watch

(since I was so late - I figured we should just wait 'til the reports hit the dollar to post the numbers)

Last trade 85.36 Change -0.18 (-0.21%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Dollar Awaits TICS And PPI Reads

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__Dollar_Awaits_1155593198594.html

US Producer Price Index (JUL) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.4% 4.5%
Previous: 0.5% 4.9%

Outlook: Prices received by US producers for their goods are expected to grow another 0.4 percent in July, putting the gauge up 4.5 percent on an annual basis. The reading will show that inflationary pressures will persist in the US even as Fed officials warn the economy of a slowdown. Energy prices will once again be the key contributor to inflation, as exemplified in the divergences between core and headline CPI indices. Food prices are also expected to grow, but many discretionary goods such as autos and computers should fall as increased foreign competition prevents companies from passing on costs, which is being seen in increased discounts from US automakers. The Federal Reserve hopes to see the lagged effects of its hawkish policy in inflationary numbers, as it has already seen in output reads. Sustained inflation, amid slowing growth, could leave the central bank with some difficult choices in months to come.

Previous: The U.S. Producer Price Index rose in June by 0.5 percent, followed by a 0.2 percent gain in May. Growth in the inflationary gauge was led by prices in food, energy and automobiles while the core PPI, which excludes food and fuel, advanced only 0.2 percent. Higher energy prices, including heating oil and gasoline, have allowed many companies to blame revenue shortcomings on energy woes this earnings season. Additionally, intermediate goods were up 9.3 percent annually in June, the highest since October, while prices of raw materials were up 8.6 percent. Higher prices paid early in the production stream, stirred by commodities, made for another 0.2 percent increase in the consumer price index, putting it even further above Bernanke’s comfort zone.


US Empire Manufacturing Survey (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: 14.9
Previous: 15.6

Outlook: The New York Empire State Survey numbers are expected to fall for the second consecutive month to 14.9 from July’s 15.6 reading, potentially indicating an overall shift in region’s manufacturing activity. Disappointing employment numbers, building inventories, lower than average sales, and rising energy prices all remain risk building up behind Augusts’ forecasted slump. The New Orders index has steadily dropped over the past few months and currently sits below 10.0, the lowest level in over a year. Furthermore the inventories index printed a negative read for the second consecutive month. Although general business conditions are still positive, recent sharp drops in the Empire Manufacturing index demonstrate a discernible strain on the US economy and maybe one more indicator weighing into the Fed’s difficult decision surrounding the future of interest rate policy

Previous: The Empire Manufacturing index for July indicated that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve from June, but at a much slower pace. The data showed a near 13.0-point drop from June’s 29.0 release, while holding above the 0.0 expansionary/contractionary level at a disappointing 15.6. The sharp drop in numbers from June to July was most likely due to heavy flooding in the region as new orders and shipments dropped to fresh lows on the year. Also, July’s monthly New Orders plummeted to 10.3 from 25.8 in June while shipments took an equally devastating blow, falling to 11.3 from 30.3.


US Net Foreign Securities Purchases (TICS) (JUN) (13:00 GMT; 09:00 EST)

Consensus: $65.0B
Previous: $69.6B

Outlook: Net Foreign Securities Purchases are expected to decline in June, although higher interest rates could continue to draw investors. After last month’s unexpected jump in investment from foreign sources, the Federal Reserve’s additional 25-basis point hike for the month likely enticed more interest in US treasury assets. However, there remain many worrisome signs for TICS numbers, not the least of which was June’s marked dip in the US stock markets. Continuing May’s sharp equities downturn, the Dow languished below 11,000 for most of the month, and the S&P 500 followed suit, falling almost 6 percent. Although many had relied on the predicted “flight to quality” to boost American stocks as emerging markets declined, evidence mounted that the effects would be weaker than expected. In addition, as the US economy displayed myriad signs of a slowdown and GDP estimates saw repeated revisions to the downside, the attraction of stable US assets is likely to diminish as investors look to other economies that are in a earlier stage of economic expansion.

Previous: May’s TICS data came in higher than the month before as investors diverted cash from declining emerging markets to more secure US securities. With stock markets in the developing world falling dramatically, and oil prices holding tight above $70 a barrel, low-risk American bonds became more popular as a safe-haven for capital collection. In fact, May saw purchases of US treasury bonds rise by over $10 billion, with government agency bonds doubling from the month before. The data did beat expectations by a significant margin, and more importantly, came in high enough to outstrip the US shortfall in the trade of goods and services. However, with June’s TICS number barely expected to cover the $65 billion gap in the trade balance, the US must continue to make itself attractive to foreign investors.

...more...

[54anickel]

23. Never too late to join the fun UIA. I see the buck is still headed down

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 85.26 Change -0.28 (-0.33%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.53

Previous Close 85.54 High 85.75

Low 85.25 2006-08-15 09:01:27, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

21. Futures rally on inflation report

Markets set for surge at open as tame report heightens hopes of further Fed pause.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/15/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stock futures turned sharply higher Tuesday after a key inflation report came in lower than expected and some items excluding food and energy actually saw a drop in price.

At 8:35 a.m. ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures were soundly higher.

The Producer Price Index, the government's reading of inflation at the wholesale level, rose 0.1 percent in July. Economists had forecast a gain of 0.4 percent, according to Briefing.com.

But the real surprise came when the core number, which excludes food and energy costs, declined by 0.3 percent. Economists were looking for a gain of 0.2 percent.

The report came a day before the Consumer Price Index, the measure of inflation at the retail level.

Inflation reports have gotten particular attention from the market after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than two years at its meeting last week, but said economic readings would determine if it would resume rate hikes at future meetings.

more...

[54anickel]

31. US inflation data supports Fed rate pause

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14359212/

snip>

The Federal Reserve's open market committee, headed by Ben Bernanke, decided to hold the Fed Funds rate at 5.25 per cent two weeks ago after 17 consecutive hikes. The decision came amidst a slew of inflation data that came in higher than expectations, but he Fed has said that it believes slowing growth will itself help to curb inflation.

The PPI data for July suggests that inflationary pressures may be slowing, adding to the case for the Fed to maintain the pause.

"The unexpected improvement in the core PPI is a powerful fillip to those commentators and policymakers hoping that inflationary pressures may have peaked and now be on a downward trend," said economists at Sempra Metals.

The data comes after a higher than expected 0.5 per cent rise in the PPI in June, and a 0.2 per cent rise in the core producer prices.

The PPI data showed a fall thanks in part to falling prices of light motor trucks and passenger cars, civilian aircraft and mobile homes among other indicators.

more...

[AnneD]

33. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I heard a troubeling report today. Due to the heat and times of the rains, this seasons hay crops have fallen way below what is needed for the winter. Look for ranchers to sell off before winter. Beff will be cheap now but prices will go up. Fuel costs are eating these folks alive too. God help the family farms and the farmers that tend them.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

35. Good morning AnneD....

Yes, I believe you're onto something there. Many ranchers have sent their livestock to market early because of the drought conditions. I posted a troubling article last week, if I remember correctly it stated that the world's store of grain is enough to last 57 days. Scary sh*t!

I'd guess that the drop in food prices mentioned in that inflation report may have been due to that suddenly glut on the markets. It also said something about a drop in egg prices - once again, the incredible, edible egg to the rescue. Wonder why they dropped? You'd think with the heatwave, chickens would be dying off or getting shipped to the soup factories. My past experience on the farm is that they sure as heck don't produce more eggs when stressed. Where'd all them extra eggs come from? :shrug:

[AnneD]

37. Frankly...

I am amazed hens produce ANY eggs the way they are couped up. And those modern hen houses are stifling in their heat. I get free range eggs and chickens anymore. They are a bit more but they are very tasty. Chickens were meant to scratch for worm and bugs.

We have a restaurant close to the school that make wonderful boxed lunches. There is this Rhodes Island red chicken that hangs around and has more or less been adopted by the neighborhood. She has an area that she has staked out by the restaurant. It freaks out those that don't know about her-and we hope animal control doesn't arrest her. She is one clever hen and she is particular as to those she will come to (she comes up to me very easily). She has been out and about for at least 4 yrs that I know of. No one know where she came from-but she has a great life and is so big and pretty.

[54anickel]

39. Inflation Inches Up on Wholesale Level

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060815/economy.html?.v=9

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Inflation at the wholesale level edged up by the smallest amount in five months in July as falling food prices helped offset another rise in energy costs.

The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices increased a slight 0.1 percent in July, far below the 0.5 percent jump in June. The improvement reflected a retreat in food prices, which fell by 0.3 percent in July, after having surged by 1.4 percent in June, which had been the biggest increase in nearly two years.

Federal Reserve policy-makers broke a two-year string of interest rate increases last week, saying they believed that a slowing economy would help restrain inflation pressures. But some private economists are worried that the relentless rise in energy costs could force the Fed to resume rate increases in coming months.

snip>

Price pressures have been accelerating this year as energy costs have soared, reflecting rising tensions in the Middle East and tight supplies because of increased demand from emerging economies such as China.

snip>

Those higher energy costs were expected to show up quickly in higher consumer energy bills. Analysts were forecasting that the Consumer Price Index would register a 0.4 percent increase for July when that figure is released on Wednesday.

more...

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.2.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.0. Futures trade continues to strengthen heading into the open as investors rally around the unexpected decline in core PPI -- the first since October. Even though a single month of data does not mean that inflation risks have disappeared, as a high core-CPI figure tomorrow could completely undermine the benefit of today's tame inflation figure, the year-over-year core PPI dropping to 1.3% clearly eases the worst of inflation fears and greatly increases the chance that the Fed will not raise rates again in this cycle.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.0. Futures trade gets a big boost following tame inflation data, and now suggests an even stronger open for the indices. Total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) actually fell 0.3% (consensus 0.2%), lending further credence that another rate hike may not be necessary. August NY Empire State Index checked in at lower than expected 10.3 (consensus 14.8). Bonds, which were up ahead of the data, have strengthened, as the 10-yr note is now up 13 ticks to yield 4.94%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.8. Early indications suggest yesterday's modest gains may carry over into this morning's open, as investors sift through a batch of earnings reports that so far can best be characterized as mixed. Dow components Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD), which are among a handful of retailers posting results, lived up to Wall Street's expectations but offered cautious guidance. However, with the Fed still dependent on "incoming" data, added attention will be placed on an upcoming July PPI report (8:30 ET) that will provide investors with an update on inflation at the wholesale level.

[54anickel]

24. 9:32 and they're off! Look at 'em fly

Dow 11,186.96 +89.09 (+0.80%)
Nasdaq 2,096.54 +27.50 (+1.33%)
S&P 500 1,278.74 +10.53 (+0.83%)
10-yr Bond 4.951 -0.05 (-1.00%)
30-yr Bond 5.074 -0.044 (-0.86%)
NYSE Volume 54,484,000
Nasdaq Volume 62,810,000

[54anickel]

25. Slower selloff by central banks keeps shine on gold

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/companies.aspx?ID=BD4A250233

THE failure of central banks to sell the full amount of gold they are entitled to in the current year of their sales agreement could be positive for the gold price in future, says the latest gold-hedging report by Virtual Metals Research and Consulting.

An important factor helping to stabilise the gold market in the past few years has been the voluntary signing of sales agreements — which limit how much gold signatories will sell each year — by a number of central banks.

In the year to this September, the signatories were permitted to sell 500 tons of gold but by the end of July they had sold only 331 tons. They cannot carry over the allocation from one year to the next.

Virtual Metals said it seemed unlikely the signatories would sell the full allocation this year — and if they did not, it would not only limit the amount of gold in the market at present but also affect future assumptions about sales by central banks. Previously, the banks had sold their full allocations every year.

Virtual Metals researcher Matthew Turner said reduced selling by central banks was not necessarily a general policy change, but largely reflected the dispute between the German government and the Bundesbank over using Germany’s gold reserves to cut the budget deficit. Once this was resolved, Germany could resume selling its allocation.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Bulgarian poker

http://www.mineweb.net/gold_silver/927535.htm

LONDON (Mineweb.com) --A game of high-stakes poker seems to be being played out in Bulgaria between the country’s government, or at least a part of it, and Canadian mining company, Dundee Precious Metals (DPM).

DPM, formerly a closed end Canadian precious metals fund, transformed itself into a mining company in 2003 following the acquisition of the Chelopech gold mine and the Krumovgrad exploration project in Bulgaria. Now, the country’s Environment Minister, Djevdet Chakurov is reported by Associated Press as saying that previously approved plans by Dundee to expand and develop the gold mining concessions need revision “because they do not suit government interests.”

This is perhaps another example of high metal prices leading to instability in the mining sector, as interested parties (in the same way as the unions at Escondida and elsewhere) seek to re-negotiate previously mutually agreeable contracts and concessions. In this case Bulgaria’s Ministry of Economy and Energy had reportedly previously approved terms with DPM to invest in the expansion project at Chelopech. Last month, though, the Bulgarian Court denied the Company’s claim that the Ministry of the Environment and Energy had failed to rule on the EIA submitted on the Krumovgrad Gold Project within the statutory time limit established under Bulgarian law. The Company intends to appeal the Court’s ruling and is considering pursuing its rights in the International Courts.

snip>

However, this is perhaps yet another warning to the mining sector as a whole that seemingly watertight concession contracts can come under threat if major increases in metal prices are seen as benefiting foreign mining companies without a sufficient share of the gains filtering through to the local economy and government treasury.

I believe it applies to much more than the mining sector. Damned socialist/populist tendencies are threatening corporate fascism all over the world these days. Blame Hugo!! :evilgrin:

more...

[54anickel]

26. OT - Gullible Americans by Paul Craig Roberts

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14531.htm

I was in China when a July Harris Poll reported that 50 percent of Americans still believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction when Bush invaded that country, and that 64 percent of Americans still believe that Saddam Hussein had strong links with Al Qaeda.

The Chinese leaders and intellectuals with whom I was meeting were incredulous. How could a majority of the population in an allegedly free country with an allegedly free press be so totally misinformed?

The only answer I could give the Chinese is that Americans would have been the perfect population for Mao and the Gang of Four, because Americans believe anything their government tells them.

big snip>

Or consider this explanation. Under the Nuremberg standard, Bush and Blair are war criminals. Bush is so worried that he will be held accountable that he has sent his attorney general to consult with the Republican Congress to work out legislation to protect Bush retroactively from his violations of the Geneva Conventions.

Tony Blair is in more danger of finding himself in the dock. Britain is signatory to a treaty that, if justice is done, will place Blair before the International Criminal Court in the Hague.

What better justification for the two war criminals’ illegal actions than the need to foil dastardly plots by Muslims recruited in sting operations by Western intelligence services? The more Bush and Blair can convince their publics that terrorist danger abounds, the less likely Bush and Blair are ever to be held accountable for their crimes.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Another OT - Welcome to Neo-Fascism 101

http://www.mathaba.net/z.htm?http://www.virtualcitizens.com/bosworth_2006-08-14_neo_fascism.html

Neo-conservatives decided that World War III is to be waged against “Islamic-Fascists” or “Islamo-Fascism.”

Who is reading from the new script? William Kristol, Bill O’Reilly, Christopher Hitchens, Michelle Mankin, Michael Savage, Ann Coulter, Nick Cohen, Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh, Daniel Pipes, Glenn Beck, Oliver North – even George W. Bush, prompting legitimate complaints from Muslim-Americans.

Middle Eastern powers include pan-Arab socialist dictatorships (Syria), monarchies (Saudi Arabia), constitutional theocracies (Iran), and assorted fundamentalist movements. None are “fascist.” For three decades of political scientists, “fascism” is a phenomenon of industrialized societies and exhibits features alien to the Middle East.

Classical fascism was evident in inter-war Italy, Germany and Japan, and full-blown fascism exhibits three dimensions: economic, political and cultural.

1. Economic fascism is based a merger of big business and big government. Sometimes, a formal corporatism emerges; other times, the private sector (monopolies and oligopolies) simply pass over into the public sector (as in the US), capturing the state and using it to wage that most profitable of activities: war. This later scenario is what happened in the United States, and the incestuous relationship between Big Business and Big Government ushered in a new Gilded Age of cronyism and corruption. Benito Mussolini was clear: “Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power.”

more.....

[AnneD]

47. We are living

in an informational ghetto and most folks haven't woke up to that fact yet. When they clap down on the internet-democaracy WILL be dead.

[54anickel]

27. 10:39 update - the Fed is done! All hail Chopper Ben!!!

Dow 11,184.48 +86.61 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,095.53 +26.49 (+1.28%)
S&P 500 1,279.91 +11.70 (+0.92%)
10-yr Bond 4.929 -0.072 (-1.44%)
30-yr Bond 5.048 -0.07 (-1.37%)
NYSE Volume 572,121,000
Nasdaq Volume 434,227,000

10:30 am : Little changed since the last update as stocks settle into a relatively tight trading range. Onward and upward remains the driving mantra in bonds, however, as today's economic data lend further credence that another rate hike may not be necessary. Aside from the surprise decline in pricing pressures in the tame PPI report making Treasuries more attractive, more evidence that growth "moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year" is also helping to push the yield on the 10-year note (+17/32) to 4.92%. The NY Empire State manufacturing index showed a larger than expected decline to 10.3 in August -- the lowest level in over a year.DJ30 +73.60 NASDAQ +22.42 SP500 +9.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 629/2035/402 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 417/2517/332 mln

10:00 am : Major averages are off their opening highs, but nine out of 10 economic sectors continue to sport solid gains. Pacing the way to the upside for a second straight day is Technology (+1.3%). Among the several areas within the underperforming sector attracting early bargain hunting interest, Hardware is up 1.9%. Dell (DELL 21.71 +0.47) has surged after saying it's recall of 4.1 mln notebook computer batteries will not affect its financials (i.e. battery maker Sony is expected to bear the estimated $400 mln cost). With bond yields falling across the curve in the wake of encouraging economic data, the rate-sensitive Financials sector (+1.2%) is offering some influential leadership. Energy recently slipping into the red, however, has stalled some of the early momentum as a modest pullback in oil provides just enough of an impetus for investors to lock in more of the sector's leading year-to-date surge (16.5%) and rotate into underperforming areas like Tech, Industrials (+0.9%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%).DJ30 +73.56 NASDAQ +22.40 SOX +2.4% SP500 +9.37 XOI -0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 413/2018/242 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 291/2187/194 mln

09:40 am : Strong follow-through seen at the onset, as stocks open sharply higher following tame inflation data. With financial markets looking for some good news on inflation, a sign that pricing pressures are easing, at least at the wholesale level, has restored investor confidence. Total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly fell 0.3% (consensus 0.2%) -- the first decline since October. Even though the PPI data are much more volatile than tomorrow's more influential CPI data, which measures inflation at the consumer level, the year-over-year core PPI falling to 1.3% clearly eases the worst of inflation fears and strengthens the credibility of the Fed, which may not have to raise rates again this year. DJ30 +87.65 NASDAQ +26.57 SP500 +11.96 NASDAQ Vol 114 mln NYSE Vol 84 mln

[54anickel]

29. John Hussman: Don't Be Surprised By Stagflation Ahead

http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/15471

1. Profit margins are likely to contract in the next few years...

2. The U.S. stock market is likely to struggle. While the current price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 (net trailing earnings) is a historically above-average but seemingly benign 17.6, it's notable that the current P/E would be approximately 25 on the basis of normalized profit margins. Alternatively, the current multiple of 17.6 should be evaluated relative to the norm of just 9 times earnings that has historically prevailed when earnings have been near the top of their long-term growth channel.

3. The U.S. economy is likely to experience weak growth in the coming quarters. Given the collection of evidence already in hand, at the point that the ISM Purchasing Managers Index drops below 50, or the 6-month growth in total non-farm employment declines below 0.5%, the likelihood of an oncoming recession will rise to near-certainty.

4. The U.S. current account deficit is likely to contract in the quarters ahead, but only because of a decline in foreign capital inflows. This is likely to result in flat or declining U.S. domestic investment, particularly in the housing sector...

5. Inflation is likely to remain a persistent “structural” problem, rather than a “cyclical” one that will go away at the first hint of economic slowing. Meanwhile, U.S. nominal interest rates will most likely fail to track economic growth lower...

more...

[54anickel]

30. Delphi Has $2.6 Billion First-Half Loss on Attrition

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aDHPz7BODcCE&refer=news

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Delphi Corp., a bankrupt auto-parts maker, said its first-half loss widened to $2.6 billion as the former General Motors Corp. unit spent money to eliminate jobs.

About 85 percent of eligible union workers have accepted early retirement incentives or buyout offers of as much as $140,000, the Troy, Michigan-based company said in a statement today. First-half sales rose less than 1 percent to $14 billion.

``Delphi appears to be maintaining or slightly improving its performance level,'' said Morgan Keegan & Co. analyst Pete Hastings. ``The bad news is that the operating losses continue and will remain that way without additional help from the courts on restructuring.''

Delphi has now lost money for eight consecutive quarters because of North American production cuts by GM and Ford Motor Co. The company hasn't released its quarterly results on time since filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in October.

more...

[54anickel]

32. 11:35 more of the same-o same-o

Dow 11,195.12 +97.25 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq 2,102.11 +33.07 (+1.60%)
S&P 500 1,280.90 +12.69 (+1.00%)
10-yr Bond 4.927 -0.074 (-1.48%)
30-yr Bond 5.049 -0.069 (-1.35%)
NYSE Volume 899,691,000
Nasdaq Volume 683,631,000

11:30 am : Market continues to trade at its best levels as buyers remain in complete control of the action. Even though it's among the least influential of the S&P 500 sectors, Materials (+1.1%) is hitting session highs as further deterioration in the greenback, after tame inflation data lowered expectations of a Fed hike in September, makes dollar-denominated commodities more attractive. Bucking that trend, however, have been oil and gold; but with both slipping to three-week lows, their appeal as hedges against inflation is providing additional support for the broader market. DJ30 +102.70 NASDAQ +34.78 SP500 +13.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 643/2161/668 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 461/2603/556 mln

11:00 am : Major averages regain some upward momentum within the last 30 minutes and are hitting fresh session highs. The bulk of early leadership continues to come from Tech and Financials. Growth companies, from semiconductors (+2.7%) to software (+2.1%), as well as rate-sensitive issues, like banks (+1.4%) and brokers (+2.1%), that are dependent on borrowing costs are taking full advantage of the rally in bonds, which continues to inch the 10-year note yield closer to its four-month low of 4.88%. DJ30 +98.05 NASDAQ +32.76 SP500 +12.91 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 652/2101/540 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 453/2559/444 mln

10:30 am : Little changed since the last update as stocks settle into a relatively tight trading range. Onward and upward remains the driving mantra in bonds, however, as today's economic data lend further credence that another rate hike may not be necessary. Aside from the surprise decline in pricing pressures in the tame PPI report making Treasuries more attractive, more evidence that growth "moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year" is also helping to push the yield on the 10-year note (+17/32) to 4.92%. The NY Empire State manufacturing index showed a larger than expected decline to 10.3 in August -- the lowest level in over a year.DJ30 +73.60 NASDAQ +22.42 SP500 +9.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 629/2035/402 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 417/2517/332 mln



Quick peek at the buck that's making "dollar-denominated commodities more attractive".

Last trade 85.14 Change -0.40 (-0.47%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.53

Previous Close 85.54 High 85.75

Low 85.10 2006-08-15 11:38:25, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

34. Mexico's Peso Bond Yield May Fall to Six-Month Low on Calderon

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aRNcfPDNc0ew&refer=latin_america

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico may pay the lowest yield since February to borrow pesos over 10 years after Felipe Calderon said a court-ordered recount of presidential election ballots confirmed him as the winner, putting the governing party candidate a step closer to office.

``The fact that Calderon, even with a small margin, is still expected to come out ahead in the presidential election will be good for bonds,'' said Cristina Panait, an emerging-market analyst at Los Angeles-based Payden & Rygel, which manages more than $50 billion in assets.

The yield on the government's benchmark 8 percent bond due December 2015 has fallen 90 basis points to 8.21 percent yesterday since an initial tally of the July 2 election showed Calderon, of President Vicente Fox's National Action Party, beating rival Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador by 0.6 percentage point, according to Santander Central Hispano SA. A basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage point.

The government today plans to sell 3.1 billion pesos ($286 million) in a reopening of its benchmark bond at 2:30 p.m. New York time. In last month's auction, the government sold the 10- year bond at a yield of 8.69 percent.

Calderon's margin of victory was 243,934 votes of the 40.9 million valid votes cast July 2, and won't change by more than 1,500 votes following the recount, his party's chief lawyer, Cesar Nava, said on Aug. 13. Calderon, 43, pledged to maintain economic policies that have reduced the government's foreign debt, cut inflation and lowered interest rates.

Fraud Allegations

more...

[donkeyotay]

42. Fraud? No the BFEE is just lucky and beloved by god

It's just a coincidence that it's important for their boy to win this election. That crazy socialist Obrador wants to use Mexico's wealth for the Mexican people's benefit, so of course they voted for the BFEE.

<snip>
Some analysts say . . . Mr. Calderón . . . would be preferred by many U.S. officials . . . "Definitely, from a Washington perspective, it would be easier to work with someone like Calderón . . "The PAN is a relatively conservative party and shares an economic philosophy with the White House . . . Mr. Calderón, 43, is a free-market proponent. He promotes lower taxes, more private investment in the government-controlled energy sector . . .

In the debate, Mr. Calderón touched on some of the themes near and dear to Washington, such as investing more money in oil exploration to keep Mexico, one of the U.S.'s biggest suppliers, from running out of crude in the next decade. . . .

Traditionally, the Mexican government has dumped oil profits into the government's general fund to pay for everything from education to roads. Mr. Calderón said the state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, should reinvest those funds in exploration before its current oil fields dry up. . .

In February, Mexico was the No. 1 foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S., averaging nearly 1.8 million barrels per day. Normally, Mexico is No. 2 or 3, behind Saudi Arabia and Canada. end>

http://www.kvue.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/mexico/elections/stories/042706dnintdebate.ed2ebbb.html

<snip>
Left-of-center candidate Andres Lopez Obrador wants to de-emphasize production of crude oil and focus instead on refined products such as gasoline and plastics, while his main challenger, conservative Felipe Calderon, proposes opening the industry to foreign oil corporations to help increase crude exports.

Calderon, candidate of the pro-business National Action Party (PAN), says that foreign companies, which are allowed only as contractors providing oil-field services such as drilling, seismic work and infrastructure construction, should be allowed to enter into joint-production agreements with Pemex.

Lopez Obrador defends the ban on most foreign investment and has pledged to build three gasoline refineries and boost petrochemical production. He notes that Mexico annually spends $4.5 billion in gasoline imports and nearly $10 billion in petrochemical imports, mainly from the United States. Pemex has made no significant refining investments in 20 years, and none in petrochemicals in 15 years.

In Tabasco, engineers who have been fired from the company complain that Pemex under the Fox administration has unnecessarily given billions of dollars of service contracts to U.S. companies such as Bechtel, Halliburton and Schlumberger.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/06/30/MNGAAJN9JG1.DTL

[54anickel]

36. 12:37 and all is well

Dow 11,195.28 +97.41 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq 2,101.92 +32.88 (+1.59%)
S&P 500 1,281.14 +12.93 (+1.02%)
10-yr Bond 4.923 -0.078 (-1.56%)
30-yr Bond 5.045 -0.073 (-1.43%)
NYSE Volume 1,139,102,000
Nasdaq Volume 868,953,000

12:30 pm : No change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway. While stocks appear to be settling into a holding pattern, it is worth noting that limited participation is again providing little conviction behind renewed enthusiasm for equities, as was the case yesterday when late-day selling pressure amid below average volume eventually took much of the steam out of an early rally. As a result, it remains to be seen if intraday gains will be sustainable since the market could again exhibit some anxiety heading into the close, especially with tomorrow's influential CPI data holding even more significance from an inflation standpoint than today's PPI report.DJ30 +100.78 NASDAQ +33.48 SP500 +13.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 725/2157/844 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 520/2625/706 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks are holding onto the bulk of today's gains as investors continue to rally around "incoming" economic data which eased the worst of inflation fears.

Before the bell, investors sifted through a batch of mixed earnings reports, lying in wait for the release of the July PPI report to set a more definitive tone to trading. Then, promptly at 8:30 ET, the likelihood of moderating inflation pressures, which the Fed alluded to in its policy statement one week ago today, came to fruition. Total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly fell 0.3% (consensus 0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003.

Even though a single month of data does not mean that inflation risks have disappeared, as a high core-CPI figure tomorrow could completely undermine the benefit of today's benign inflation figure, the year-over-year core PPI dropping to 1.3% clearly represents a true easing in pricing pressures that will flow through to the consumer level over time. The PPI report, coupled with more evidence (i.e. a larger than expected decline in NY Empire State manufacturing index) that growth "moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year," has also strengthened the credibility of the Bernanke-led Fed, which now may not have to raise rates again this year. To wit, fed fund futures are now pricing in less than a 30% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 42% likelihood before the data were released.

Among the nine sectors posting gains, Technology (+2.0%) is pacing the way higher for a second straight day, as evidenced by the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+1.6%) turning in the best performance among the majors. Aside from a sense that a short-term bottom has formed in everything from semiconductors (+2.9%) to software (+2.4%), hardware (+2.4%) has also attracted some notable bargain hunting interest and gotten additional support from a 3.4% surge in Dell (DELL 21.96 +0.72), after it said a recall of 4.1 mln notebook computer batteries will not materially impact its financials, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 33.94 +0.65), which could steal market share from Dell due to in part to the recall.

With bond yields falling across the curve in the wake of encouraging economic data, the rate-sensitive Financials sector (+1.5%) is also offering some influential leadership. Energy, however, remains under modest pressure amid a pullback in oil; but ongoing consolidation in crude futures is providing just enough of an impetus for investors to lock in more of the sector's leading year-to-date surge (16.5%) and rotate into underperforming areas like Tech, Industrials (+1.3%), and Consumer Discretionary (+1.0%). The latter has gotten a lift from further momentum in retail, as an earnings surprise from Home Depot (HD 34.44 +1.18) helps offset Wal-Mart's (WMT 44.35 -0.75) first profit decline in 10 years. BTK +0.8% DJ30 +100.22 DJTA +1.8% DJUA +0.6% DOT +1.7% NASDAQ +34.78 NQ100 +1.9% R2K +1.8% SOX +2.9% SP400 +1.2% SP500 +13.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 690/2167/774 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 502/2620/650 mln

[54anickel]

43. Stocks may face a dreary decade ahead

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/060815/98abce56aa1848d68888464e5b32334a.html

snip>

When we first looked at Siegel's numbers in the late 1990s, stocks were over 80% above the long-run total return trendline, about as high as they ever get. Stocks reached similar levels in 1928 and 1968 -- both years when the stock market was notoriously topping out.

Stocks did fall after 2000 (remember?) But they never got lower than a few points below trend. Then the post-election Bush bounce in 2004-2005 took stocks to some 7% above trend.

After that, stocks stalled. That means that this time last year, because of that relentlessly accumulating trendline, stocks were down to less than 1% above it. See Aug. 26, 2005 column.

snip>

And even that's still well above the levels usually seen at major bear market lows. In both 1931 and 1973, stocks got some 40% below trend.

In other words, an epochal but not unprecedented bull market high has not yet, unlike in every other case on record, been succeeded by a corresponding bear market low.

This may sound worrying. But of course the major market indexes we're used to watching don't literally have to fall 40%. Because the underlying total return trend rises at some 7% a year, the indexes can just move sideways.

How long? Well, adjusting just for dividends, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved sideways until 2019, that would be the equivalent of Siegel's broad, total-return measure of stocks getting 40% below trend.

more...

[54anickel]

44. 2:26 and pumpin' up (shorts run for cover)

Dow 11,206.89 +109.02 (+0.98%)
Nasdaq 2,107.71 +38.67 (+1.87%)
S&P 500 1,282.82 +14.61 (+1.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.929 -0.072 (-1.44%)
30-yr Bond 5.048 -0.07 (-1.37%)
NYSE Volume 1,585,550,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,203,214,000

2:00 pm : Indices settle back into their tight trading range as broad-based buying efforts leaves virtually every industry group in positive territory. Electronic Equipment Manufacturing (+7.0%) is pacing the way higher, led by an 8.0% surge in Agilent Technologies (A 30.76 +2.29) -- today's best performing S&P 500 constituent after it beat analysts' Q3 forecasts. Airlines (+3.8%) is turning in the second best performance after Citigroup upgraded Southwest Airlines (LUV 17.05 +0.61) to Buy from Hold while Computer & Electronics Retail (+3.3%) ranks third after an earnings surprise from Home Depot (HD 34.19 +0.93) renews interest in one of last month's worst performers. Of the 147 S&P industry groups, only nine are trading lower, led by Hypercenters and Super Centers (-1.6%) after Wal-Mart (WMT 44.16 -0.94) posted its first profit decline in a decade. DJ30 +93.57 NASDAQ +32.37 SP500 +12.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 807/2133/1.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 560/2655/934 mln

1:30 pm : Major averages are off their best levels but market internals continue to suggest that a bullish bias remains firmly intact. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE outpace decliners by a 5-to-1 margin while those on the Nasdaq hold a nearly 3-to-1 edge. A 4-to-1 ratio of up to down volume on both the Big Board and the Composite also signals that a short-term bottom has been put in place while the ability by the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to breach key resistance levels of 11150, 1279 and 2099, respectively, further suggests that sellers remain sidelined for the time being.DJ30 +92.35 NASDAQ +31.72 SP500 +12.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 790/2135/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 545/2659/864 mln

1:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as short sellers continue to run for cover, clearing the way for bargain hunters to rally back into a market that was showing signs of being oversold. To wit, Tech (+2.0%), Industrials (+1.4%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%) -- the three worst performers this year -- are among today's top performers. Health Care, albeit not among the biggest gainers but also garnering some renewed interest, is also worth noting since its 0.6% gain lifts the sector back into positive territory for the year. ..DRG +1.0%. BTK +0.8% DJ30 +106.22 NASDAQ +35.58 SP500 +13.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 753/2168/952 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 530/2665/802 mln

[54anickel]

45. 3:12 and I've gotta run - someone catch the lights on the way out

Dow 11,220.58 +122.71 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,111.73 +42.69 (+2.06%)
S&P 500 1,284.47 +16.26 (+1.28%)
10-yr Bond 4.929 -0.072 (-1.44%)
30-yr Bond 5.045 -0.073 (-1.43%)
NYSE Volume 1,824,762,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,400,948,000

3:00 pm : Market showing no signs of slowing heading into the final hour of trading. Every major average is up at least 1.0%, led by a 2.0% surge on the Nasdaq that has shaved nearly one third of its 6.2% year-to-date decline. Faring even better is the Russell 2000, which is up 2.2% as small-cap companies typically dependent on borrowing are taking full advantage of a bond rally that has knocked yields lower across the curve. DJ30 +120.11 NASDAQ +43.16 SP500 +16.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 775/2218/1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 544/2711/1.12 bln

2:30 pm : More of the same for the averages as the Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the upside for a second straight day. Providing the latest boost to the tech-heavy Composite, which is now at session highs, has been a spike higher in Qualcomm (QCOM 35.13 +1.54), which was up 2.2% 15 minutes ago but is now up 4.6% following reports that a judge has delayed a trade dispute ruling until October 10th. DJ30 +112.13 NASDAQ +38.77 SP500 +14.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 811/2164/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 553/2690/1.04 bln

2:00 pm : Indices settle back into their tight trading range as broad-based buying efforts leaves virtually every industry group in positive territory. Electronic Equipment Manufacturing (+7.0%) is pacing the way higher, led by an 8.0% surge in Agilent Technologies (A 30.76 +2.29) -- today's best performing S&P 500 constituent after it beat analysts' Q3 forecasts. Airlines (+3.8%) is turning in the second best performance after Citigroup upgraded Southwest Airlines (LUV 17.05 +0.61) to Buy from Hold while Computer & Electronics Retail (+3.3%) ranks third after an earnings surprise from Home Depot (HD 34.19 +0.93) renews interest in one of last month's worst performers. Of the 147 S&P industry groups, only nine are trading lower, led by Hypercenters and Super Centers (-1.6%) after Wal-Mart (WMT 44.16 -0.94) posted its first profit decline in a decade. DJ30 +93.57 NASDAQ +32.37 SP500 +12.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 807/2133/1.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 560/2655/934 mln



Final peek at the buck
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 85.21 Change -0.33 (-0.39%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.53

Previous Close 85.54 High 85.75

Low 85.10 2006-08-15 14:44:51, 30 min delay

Have a great evening! :hi:

[JNelson6563]

46. Where do I pick up my free pony?

So glad to see the top 1% liked today's economic news! Whoo-hooo!

[AnneD]

48. Don't know about your pony...

but the are dishing out Rainbow Stew at the soup kitchen.

[UpInArms]

49. closing with free ponies and ice cream for everyone!

Dow 11,230.26 +132.39 (+1.19%)
Nasdaq 2,115.01 +45.97 (+2.22%)
S&P 500 1,285.58 +17.37 (+1.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.931 -0.07 (-1.40%)

NYSE Volume 2,353,827,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,807,215,000

Stocks rallied Tuesday as tame inflation data helped strengthen the view that the Fed will remain on hold at its next meeting on September 20.

Amid lingering uncertainty as to whether policy makers can successfully engineer a "soft landing," and with financial markets looking for some good news on inflation, a sign that pricing pressures are moderating like the Fed alluded to in its policy statement a week ago, helped restore investor confidence Tuesday.

Total PPI rose a smaller than expected 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in July, which was well below the 0.5% jump in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) unexpectedly fell 0.3% (consensus +0.2%) -- the first decline since October and the largest drop since a 0.5% decline in April 2003.

Even though the PPI data are much more volatile than tomorrow's more influential CPI data, which measures inflation at the consumer level and could completely undermine the benefit of today's benign inflation figure if it checks in stronger than expected, core PPI dropping to a 1.3% annual rate clearly represented a true easing in pricing pressures that will flow through to the consumer over time.

Aside from the surprise decline in core PPI making Treasuries more attractive, as the yield on the 10-year note (+16/32) fell 7 basis points to 4.92%, further evidence that growth "moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year" also strengthened the credibility of a Bernanke-led Fed which may again forgo a rate hike when it convenes in a few weeks. To wit, fed fund futures are now pricing in less than a 30% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 42% likelihood before the data were released. The NY Empire State manufacturing index showed a larger than expected decline to 10.3 in August -- the lowest level in over a year.

Of all 10 sectors posting gains, bargain hunters again flocked to the most beaten-down sector of them all -- Technology (+2.6%) -- which paced the way higher for a second straight day and helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq shave more than one third of its 6.2% year-to-date decline as short sellers continued to run for cover. Aside from a sense that a short-term bottom has formed in everything from semiconductors (+3.8%) to software (+3.2%), hardware (+3.4%) also garnered some renewed interest as Dell (DELL 22.08 +0.84) soared 4% after it said a recall of 4.1 mln Sony-made notebook computer batteries will not materially impact its financials.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 33.99 +0.70), which could steal market share from Dell due in part to the recall and is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, coupled with a 7% surge in CA Inc. (CA 23.27 +1.50) and a 9% surge in Agilent Technologies (A 31.09 +2.62), provided additional sector support. Agilent, today's best performing S&P 500 constituent, more than doubled Q3 profits while CA Inc. beat expectations last night and issued upside FY07 EPS guidance on the back of a broad $200 mln restructuring.

With bond yields falling across the curve in the wake of encouraging economic data, the rate-sensitive Financials sector (+1.7%) also offered some influential leadership for the S&P 500, helping it finally break through key resistance near the 1280 level. With a good deal of concern about the pace of economic activity still looming, which has weighed heavily on the Dow Jones Transportation Average of late, lowered expectations of a Fed hike next month renewed buying interest in everything from trucking to railroads, lifting the Industrials sector back into the green for the year. Also paring a significant portion of its year-to-date loss was Consumer Discretionary, as a Q2 earnings surprise from Home Depot (HD 34.38 +1.12) on stronger than expected sales helped offset Wal-Mart's (WMT 44.51 -0.59) first profit decline in 10 years and Q2 revenues that fell short of analysts' estimates.

Even though it's among the least influential of the S&P 500 sectors, Materials tacked on an impressive 1.9% surge to its 1.0% year-to-date advance, as further deterioration in the greenback made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive. Bucking that trend, however, were oil and gold; but with both trading near three-week lows, their lack of appeal as hedges against inflation provided additional support for the broader market.

In contrast to Monday's action, which succumbed to late-day selling pressure that took much of the steam out of an early morning rally, stocks continued to gain ground going into Tuesday's closing bell, as a bullish bias remained firmly intact and the major averages finished at, or near, their best levels of the day. BTK +1.6% DJ30 +132.39 DJTA +2.9% DJUA +0.8% DOT +2.5% NASDAQ +45.97 NQ100 +2.7% R2K +2.4% SOX +3.7% SP400 +1.9% SP500 +17.37 XOI +0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 769/2277/1.78 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 545/2757/1.51 bln

[Roland99]

50. One month of decent inflationary news bucks the trend?

:eyes: