STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 11 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 11, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 894 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2057 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1757 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1718
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 10, 2006

Dow... 11,124.37 +48.19 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq... 2,071.74 +11.46 (+0.56%)
S&P 500... 1,271.81 +5.86 (+0.46%)
Gold future... 646.00 -16.00 (-2.48%)
30-Year Bond 5.07% +0.02 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.93% -0.01 (-0.20%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

The Stock Market Looks Overvalued
Now it’s technically weak

If he were alive today, Benjamin Graham would not be buying any stocks, because they are overvalued. If legendary trader, Jessie Livermore were alive today, he would be selling stocks at a rapid pace because in addition to being overvalued, stocks are also breaking down technically. This is a good time to read the original edition of The Intelligent Investor. It is important to remember that in terms of business fundamentals, nothing has changed over time. The valuations cited in this book are directly relevant for comparing past valuations and dividends with those of today. Once you make these comparisons, it will be obvious to you that if he were alive today, Mr. Graham would not be buying stocks.

The chart below (reference) which tracks stock valuations in terms of price to earnings ratio dating back from 1880 to the present, pretty much spells out the situation. The price to earnings ratio (P/E) depicted in the chart is the P/E for the S&P 500. The P/E for some other indices such as the Nasdaq 100 tends to be even higher than that of the S&P 500. P/E’s have been above the upper green line in the chart only two other times since 1880. These times were 1929 before a crash, and in 2000 before a crash. Who is to say why or how the US market has levitated toward its historical high valuation line for over 6 years since 2000? The relevant question is whether the US stock market has reached a permanently high plateau near its record high valuation point ,or if it will eventually come back to its historical valuation benchmark ranges.

-cut-

Until recently, there was a reason to buy or hold stocks that was separate from valuations – technicals. But now those technicals are also breaking down. For most investors, with regard to most US stocks, the sideline is the place to be. Are technicals actually breaking down? Let’s look at the long term charts of the major US stock indices.

-cut-

Today’s Market

The action today was meaningless in the broad scheme of things. The only major indices that moved more than 1% were the recent laggards, semi-conductors and transportation stocks. Volume was light, further adding to the evidence that today’s action was rather meaningless. Those things that are in a bull market--oil, commodities, gold, and silver--were down, suggesting that today was an upside down day. Notable in today’s action was the apparent short squeeze in the department store, Target.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jul
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.6%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jul
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Retail Sales Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.9%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior -0.1%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.8%

[UpInArms]

9. 8:30 reports tumbling in:

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES DOWN 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY PETROLEUM PRICES UP 4.7% VS 1.4 FALL IN JUNE

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.9% VS 0.8% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES OF DURABLE GOODS STRONG

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES EX-CARS, EX-GAS UP 0.7%, 6-MONTH HIGH

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES STRONGEST IN 6 MONTHS

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 4.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES REVISED LOWER TO -0.4% VS. -0.1%

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY GASOLINE SALES UP 2.5%

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY AUTO SALES RISE 3.1%

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 1.0% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES UP 1.4% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. July retail sales up 1.4%, biggest gain in 6 months

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBF94148F%2DE739%2D4D30%2DAC48%2D0008186195AD%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales increased at the fastest pace in six months in July, rising 1.4% on higher auto and gasoline sales, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Higher sales were seen across the board, from electronics to clothing. Sales of durable goods were particularly strong. Auto sales surged 3.1% in July, also the biggest gain since January. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 1%. The figures were higher than expected on Wall Street, where economists surveyed by MarketWatch were reckoning on a gain of 0.8% for retail sales and a 0.5% increase in sales excluding autos.

[54anickel]

22. Gee, I suppose we can look forward to another record in consumer

credit for July too, huh?


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a1NorWYIh4Fk&refer=us
U.S. Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Accelerated in June (Update2)
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Borrowing by U.S. consumers unexpectedly accelerated in June as credit card debt jumped, a Federal Reserve report showed today.

Consumer credit, or non-mortgage loans to individuals, rose $10.3 billion to $2.19 trillion following a revised $5.89 billion increase in May. The two-month gain was the biggest since September-October 2004.

Americans are making greater use of their credit cards to finance purchases because rising interest rates and a cooling housing market make it harder for them to take out home-equity loans. Higher prices at filling stations are also prompting consumers to take on more debt, economists said.

``The jump in consumer credit coming at a time when consumers are hard hit by soaring gasoline costs could indicate some financial woes on the part of borrowers,'' said Chris Rupkey, an economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. ``It looks as if consumers are relying more on credit cards now that other avenues of credit such as mortgage refinancing have been shut off to them.''

[UpInArms]

11. U.S. July import prices rise 0.9% vs 0.8% expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2D168546%2DFA21%2D47DC%2D931A%2D5C9796871CD3%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. import prices rose 0.9% in July, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists were expecting import prices to rise 0.8%. Prices in June were revised down slightly to show no change from the initial estimate last month of a 0.1% rise. Imported petroleum prices rose 4.7% in July after falling 1.4% in the previous month. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.1% after a 0.4% rise in June. This is the first decline since March. Natural gas prices fell 1.9% in July. Prices of non-fuel industrial supplies fell 0.8% in July, the biggest decline since May 2005. Meanwhile, prices of U.S. exports rose 0.4%.

[UpInArms]

33. Consumer confidence hits 3-month low

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060811/ap_on_bi_ge/ipsos_consumer_confidence

WASHINGTON - Consumer confidence slid to a three-month low as people fretted about the direction of the economy and their own balance sheets in the months ahead.

The RBC CASH Index, based on results from the international polling firm Ipsos, showed confidence ebbed to 74.8 in early August. That marked a sharp drop from July's showing of 80.1. It was the second month in a row that confidence dropped, and it was the lowest reading since May.

Economists blamed the deterioration in confidence mostly on galloping energy prices and a cooling in the once-hot housing market.

With housing prices not going up as much as they had been, people aren't feeling as wealthy. That — along with the strain of expensive energy bills — have forced consumers to tighten their belts, an important factor in the slowing of overall economic activity.

"Right now consumers are feeling insecure. They are worried about their inability to finance their standard of living in the face of higher gas prices, a softening economy, a slowing job market and a cooling housing market," said Peter Morici, an economist and professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business.

<snip>

Consumers are growing more anxious about future economic conditions.

An index measuring their expectations about the next six months — including the overall economy's prospects as well as their own financial situations — declined in early August to 21.8, down from 34.2 in July. It was the weakest since May.

...more...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

38. I'm Confused....

I just think that the majority of people in this country are too fucked up.

So? Retail Sales are at their Biggest gain in 6 months, Up 1.4%. Yet, consumer confidence is Down to the Lowest level in 3 months.

People are less confident about the future, yet they're spending more money on "retail" crap. Obviously that figure doesn't include essentials like food, housing, gas, health care.

Me? I prefer to actually spend less if I'm pessimistic about what the future holds. I'm funny that way I guess.

[AnneD]

39. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Here's my take on this....I'm fairly average. Now, my spending has gone up-not because I am buying more crap, but because it costs more (inflation). I pay in cash so no credit card debt for me. Yes I am spending more because it costs more. For those that have not weaned themselves off cards-they are charging more but not getting that much more either. Interest rates are draining more of their money from their wallets.
July and August will see a jump in retail sale because parents are preparing for kids return to school.

My teacher friend had her vehicle parked in her drive way for most of the summer (only taking her daughter to lessons and combined trips), took in 3 movies (use to go weekly), cut back on cable, had take out once a week (down from once a day), ran the A/C at a higher setting, bought 2 new outfits and a pair of shoes for her daughter for her daughter and nothing for herself, and only rented 4 movies. She makes a bit over 53K per year and is a single parent with one in state college and one in high school. None of that sounded excessive to me. She is very worried about making ends meet and had to put off home repairs because of the economy.

What is fucked up is the economy and how they capture the data.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

36. June Business Inventories up 0.8% as sales slow (above concensus)

10:00 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JUNE RETAIL AUTO INVENTORIES UP 1.7%

10:00 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JUNE RETAIL INVENTORIES RISE 0.9%

10:00 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JUNE INVENTORY-TO-SALES RATIO RISES TO 1.26

10:00 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JUNE BUSINESS SALES UP 0.2%

10:00 AM ET 8/11/06 U.S. JUNE BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.8% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8F30850F%2D6C70%2D487B%2D89EB%2D2A48EEAFF13F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. businesses' sales slowed sharply in June while inventories continued to grow, the Commerce Department said Friday. With sales up 0.2% and inventories rising 0.8%, the inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.26 in June from the record-low 1.25 in May. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting inventories to rise 0.6%. In May, sales had increased 1.6% while inventories rose a revised 1.1%. Much of the data in the report had been released previously. The one new bit of information was the 0.9% rise in retail inventories in June. In the retail sector, sales fell 0.4%. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.50. Retail auto inventories rose 1.7% in June. Excluding autos, retail inventories increased 0.5% in June.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil market rests on fragile supply cushion: IEA

PARIS (AFP) - Estimated world oil product demand is flat at 84.8 million barrels per day this year and the market has a fragile cushion to absorb supply disruptions in Alaska and elsewhere, the IEA reported.

"For the time being, the market can cope with current outages," the International Energy Agency said in its monthly review of the oil market.

"But in the light of the many possible threats to output, including the current hurricane season, there is little doubt that the upstream spare capacity cushion remains thin."

The impact of disruption to supplies from the BP field in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, would probably be substantially less than the 400,000 barrels per day reported because of offsetting factors elsewhere.

more

[ozymandius]

4. BP tries to keep part of oil field open

PRUDHOE BAY, Alaska - The nation's largest oil field got a reprieve of sorts as BP PLC announced it will try to keep part of its North Slope production running while replacing corroded pipes that have caused two spills this year.

But federal regulators on Thursday ordered the company to conduct more rigorous pipeline inspections to continue operations, and BP must pass a series of tests before restarting pipes it shut down.

The news came as BP gave a tour of its massive Prudhoe Bay facility on the edge of the Arctic Ocean, where a 210-gallon spill led the company to announce earlier this week that it was shutting down its 400,000 barrel-a-day operation.

On Thursday, it said it was moving forward to replace the eastern transit lines that leaked, signing contracts with United States Steel Corp. and Nippon Steel Corp. to supply 10 miles of pipeline. Sixteen miles will be replaced. BP is working to win contracts for the remaining materials.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Oil bounces after $2 slump on aircraft bomb plot

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil rebounded on Friday from a 3 percent slump as traders saw a limited impact on air travel and oil demand from an attempted transatlantic aircraft bomb plot and fretted over Middle East violence.

U.S. light, sweet crude oil rose 45 cents to $74.45 by 0714 GMT, recovering from the $2.35 slump a day ago when traders sold oil on fears that travelers might shun airlines after officials said they stopped the suicide plan just days before being carried out.

London Brent crude climbed 55 cents to $75.83, nearly $3.00 below the record-high touched on Tuesday.

"By today we know that there were no following threats to attempt attacks," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, Chief Investment Strategist at CFC Securities in Hong Kong.

more

[UpInArms]

29. World can cope now with Alaska, Nigeria oil loss: IEA

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060811/bs_nm/energy_iea_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - The world can cope for now with the loss of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Alaska and Nigeria, but the pressure is on exporter group OPEC to fill the gap, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

It bumped up the estimate of demand for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries by 600,000 bpd in the third quarter and 200,000 bpd in the fourth in its monthly Oil Market Report.

But OPEC, which pumps a third of the world's oil, is already meeting the extra requirement, the Paris-based agency said. It pegged July OPEC output at 29.8 million bpd, well above the revised third quarter call of 29.1 million.

"In the overall balance, there has been no deterioration in oil market fundamentals," said Lawrence Eagles, head of the Oil Industry and Markets division at the IEA. "There's quite a lot of crude around, so there's not much of a worry."

Oil prices hit record highs above $78 this week after BP Plc (BP.L) said it was shutting down production at its 400,000 bpd Prudhoe Bay oilfield in Alaska because of pipeline corrosion.

...more...

[ozymandius]

6. Bourses recoup some losses

Europe's bourses opened in positive territory on Friday, recouping some of the losses in the previous session triggered by the revelation of a plot to bomb transatlantic flights.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.4 per cent to 1,335.41 with the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt up 0.5 per cent to 5,656.76, the CAC-40 in Paris 0.6 per cent ahead at 5,006.68 and the FTSE 100 in London 0.2 per cent better at 5,835.2.

Wall Street clawed back early losses to close higher on Thursday as the market put aside concerns over the terror threat and reacted to some robust earnings reports.

more

[Ghost Dog]

16. Bourses cling to positive territory in mid-session trade

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38940.3296180556-880306514&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Europe’s bourses clung on to positive territory on Friday, recouping some of the losses in the previous session triggered by the revelation of a plot to bomb transatlantic flights. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.3 per cent to 1,333.98 with the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt up 0.2 per cent to 5,643.33, the CAC-40 in Paris 0.5 per cent ahead at 5,003.05 and the FTSE 100 in London 0.1 per cent better at 5,827.8. AGF, the French insurer, rose 2.4 per cent to €97.10 after first-half net profit climbed 33 per cent to €1.06bn. Allianz, which owns 58 per cent of AGF, rose 1 per cent to €128.40. Fortis, the Belgian-Dutch financial group, rose 2.7 per cent to €29.26 after JP Morgan raised its price target on the stock to €34.50 from €32.30. Adecco, the Swiss recruitment group, fell 6.4 per cent to €64.05 on disappointment over margins on its business, particularly in France.

[Ghost Dog]

17. London falls as Schroders leads financial stocks lower

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38940.340775463-880307298&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

London equities lost intraday gains to fall under the flatline on Friday, as news of a fall in assets under management at Schroders pressured the wider financial sector. The FTSE 100 was 0.1 per cent lower at 5,820.3 in mid-session trade, a small decline of 3 points. Schroders fell 7.2 per cent to 836p after it said the value of the assets under its charge fell in the first half as institutions withdrew money and volatility in global stock markets hit performance in the second quarter. Stocks most affected by the wave of selling initiated by Thursday’s increased terror alert continued to recover, limiting the downside on the senior index. British Airways was 2.1 per cent higher, EasyJet recovered by 1.5 per cent to 420.5p and InterContinental Hotels was 0.4 per cent stronger at 842.5p.

[Ghost Dog]

19. Eurozone bonds fall on growth data

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38940.3589236111-880308750&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Eurozone government bonds sold off on Friday following another set of strong economic data for the region. Official figures for the French and Italian economies bolstered expectations that the European Central Bank would continue to raise interest rates following last week’s increase. France, the eurozone’s second largest economy, grew by1.1 per cent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, higher than expectations. This triggered the sell-off. Meanwhile, Italy’s economy, the region’s third largest, rose 0.5 per cent, from the first quarter, close to expectations. Both figures are provisional. Though data continued to dominate market movements, market participants continued to follow developments regarding the foiled terror plot in the UK. In late morning trading, the yield on the two-year Schatz rose 4.7 basis points to 3.597 per cent as prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Bund added 3.5bp to 3.967 per cent. Gilt prices were on the backfoot, ahead of a slew of data expected next week, including inflation figures.

/...

[ozymandius]

7. Good morning everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time to sign off for the day. There have been some changes to my office which will preclude me on the thread anymore. So this post-and-run will be the norm for awhile.

Have a wonderful day! Welcome back UpInArms! :hug: Many thanks to 54anickel for the Daily Dollar Watch.

Ozy :hi:

[NC_Nurse]

8. Have a great day!

Thanks for keeping things going, even though you can't hang out! :hi:

[UpInArms]

15. G'morning, Ozy!

Thanks for the welcome back - still not on a schedule - running hither and thither - but I'm sure it will all settle down into some type of routine soon.

Thank you for being so steadfast every day - my hat is definitely off to you, my friend.

And 54anickel definitely rocks - taking up the slack for this slacker :D

:grouphug:

Come back and be with us whenever you can and have a great day!

:hi:

UIA

[AnneD]

40. Ya gotta do...

what ya gotta do. Just let us know you're ok.

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.24 Change 0.00 (0.00%)

Dollar Safety

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/Dollar_Safety_1155228604450.html

Capital was flowing into the Dollar at a powerful clip in the morning hours of the New York session as the market discounted the trade account for more immediate concerns over the evolving details of the foiled terror plot in the UK. Looking to the majors, it was obvious the dollar received a wave of momentum in dollar bidding as US liquidity came online.

In the benchmark EURUSD, a third touch on 1.2905 resistance eventually led to a 160-point sell off down to 1.2745. Despite initial signs of hesitation in following through with the slide, few strong support levels were in sight. The rally against the yen ended a falling channel formed since the close of yesterday’s New York session. A low for the USDJPY was tested at 114.65 and the flip turned into a 95 point run before taking to consolidating just below resistance at 115.75. The arguably over-bought GBPUSD relieved some of the pressure in the pair with its own 225-point plunge to a spike-low of 1.8865. Finally, the USDCHF was working on two-week highs approaching mid-day after a sizable 195-point run to 1.2385.

Once again the currency markets were grappling with the question of where investment capital would be best placed as uncertainty was heightened after British police prevented a terror plot based out of their own country. While the preliminary details are still fuzzy, it is known that 21 men were arrested before they could carry out a plan to board planes with improvised explosives. News sources say six to ten planes, that were all destined for the United States, were targeted. This incidence has put airports around the world on high alert while the US has specifically raised its threat levels for inbound air traffic from the UK to ‘severe’ for the first time ever. The relative importance of the ‘safe haven’ accountability of currencies in the markets was easily grasped in European and North American trading. With scheduled economic indicators printing unimpressive results to suggest a stable US dollar, the currency was instead able to produce a sizable rally. Over the past few months, demand for the most liquid currency in the world on safety concerns has occurred several times, most notably when the war between Israel and Hezbollah began and when North Korea tested its missile capabilities. And, with new issues popping up all over the world every day, anxious global investors are likely to continue to err on the side of safety of funds when a decision has to be made. On the other hand, though fundamentals were not taking precedence at the moment of their release, their effects on valuations will be around long after fear subsides. For today, the headiest piece of data was June’s trade figure. As was expected, the deficit grew from May’s preliminary read to $64.8 billion. However, due to a sizable upward revision in the previous month’s gauge to a $65 billion shortfall, June’s figure actually represented a slight contraction. According to the Commerce Department’s statistics, imports rose 1.2% to $185.5 billion while exports advanced 2.0% to a record $120.7 billion. This ambiguous improvement in the goods and services trade account comes on part of stronger growth from foreign markets like Japan and the Euro-zone and a drop in the US dollar, which tallied 3.8% against the euro. Looking ahead to tomorrow, should fears subside that the terror plot runs deeper than is currently believed, traders will respond to July retail sales to gauge whether economic growth is improving in the third quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Treasurys dip on stronger-than-expected retail sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0C6F0037%2D84AF%2D435F%2DA5B0%2DCC2DEBD5CA78%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys fell, sending yields higher, after data showed retail sales rising at their fastest pace in six months. The benchmark 10-year note fell 5/32 to 99 12/32. Its yield ($TNX : 49.55, +0.28, +0.6% ) rose to 4.957% from 4.92% late Thursday. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 1.4% in July on higher auto and gasoline sales. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 1%. The figures were higher than expected on Wall Street, where economists surveyed by MarketWatch were reckoning on a gain of 0.8% for retail sales and a 0.5% increase in sales excluding autos. Separate data showed import prices up 0.9% in July vs. an expected 0.8% rise. Excluding petroleum, prices fell 0.1% after a 0.4% rise in June. This is the first decline since March.

[UpInArms]

14. Futures raise chance of Sep Fed hike on retail sales

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-11T123715Z_01_CHB000205_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FEDFUNDS-RETAIL-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term rate futures slipped on Friday after July retail sales were reported to be stronger than expected, slightly raising the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.

Chances for a September Fed rate hike shown by futures prices <FFU6> rose to 38 percent from about 31 percent at Thursday's close.

U.S. retail sales for July rose by 1.4 percent against forecasts for a 0.8-percent advance. Excluding autos, sales were up 1.0 percent, more than the 0.5-percent forecast.

[UpInArms]

32. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds bank reserves via 6-day system repos

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-11T133355Z_01_N11343307_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on_Friday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through 6-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Roland99]

45. $37 billion this week. Action every day but Wed. but they doubled up Thur.

[UpInArms]

18. Citigroup fined for claiming hedge funds customers were 'disabled'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060810/bs_afp/uscompanybanking

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Banking giant Citigroup has been fined 1.1 million dollars after dozens of its brokers gained waivers on mutual fund sales charges by falsely claiming their customers were disabled, the NASD securities regulator said.

The NASD said in a statement that the scheme involved over 100 Citigroup brokers and was tied to over 2,000 mutual fund transactions totaling 47 million dollars. The sham deals were conducted between June 2001 and June 2002.

In some cases, according to NASD investigators, brokers at the bank's Citigroup Global Markets Inc. group falsely claimed their customers were disabled individuals when in fact they were hedge funds.

"Its representatives were able to improperly exploit the mutual funds' fee waiver provisions that were specifically reserved for disabled individuals, extending them even to hedge funds," NASD head of enforcement James Shorris said.

The regulator said Citigroup had agreed to pay 715,000 dollars in restitution to the affected mutual fund groups and a further 400,000 for record-keeping and oversight violations.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Unit of Citigroup Fined $1.1 Million (for cheating and lying)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/business/11broker.html?ex=1312948800&en=b826f364e03f6ed2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

WASHINGTON, Aug. 10 (AP) — Securities regulators ordered a division of Citigroup to pay $1.1 million in fines and restitution Thursday to settle charges that it allowed more than 100 brokers to submit false disability claims for customers so they would not have to pay certain mutual fund fees.

NASD, the brokerage industry’s self-policing organization, announced the settlement with Citigroup Global Markets, which agreed to pay $400,000 in civil fines and $715,000 in restitution to affected mutual fund companies. Citigroup neither admitted nor denied violations of supervisory and recordkeeping rules.

NASD said that from June 2001 to June 2002, the brokers submitted invalid customer disability claims in 2,419 mutual fund transactions totaling about $47 million, which it called an unusually high number for about 100 brokers to file.

“Yet Citigroup failed to scrutinize those transactions or make inquiry of the brokers entering those transactions,” NASD said.

One broker filed disability claims for more than 80 percent of his customers, according to the organization, which said most of those customers were not disabled.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

20. Tokyo stocks fall on disappointing data

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d4132754-28f1-11db-a2c1-0000779e2340.html

Sentiment in general was weakened by slightly lower than expected figures for second-quarter economic growth while Japanese airline stocks fell on news of the aborted plot to blow up aircraft flying from London.

The Nikkei 225 was down 0.4 per cent to close at 15,565.02. The Topix fell 0.3 per cent to 1,577.92.

Japan Airlines, the country’s biggest international carrier, was down 1.4 per cent to Y207. All Nippon Airways, its largest rival, fell 1.6 per cent to Y442.

But Japan’s biggest general construction contractors gained after Credit Suisse raised its rating on them to “outperform” from “neutral”. Taisei soared 4.7 per cent to Y422, with Shimizu up 4.6 per cent to Y679 and Obayashi up 5.6 per cent to Y832. The construction sector as a whole rose 1.4 per cent.

Real estate climbed 1.1 per cent, continuing to build on the positive news of last week’s land price survey, which showed a nationwide rise.

Mitsui Fudosan, Japan’s biggest property company, jumped 2.2 per cent to Y2,565.

But there was mild profit-taking in some domestic stocks that had been performing well, in the wake of strong domestic data such as a surge in bank lending. After rising earlier in the week, banking fell 0.7 per cent. Mitsubishi UFJ, the world’s biggest bank by assets, declined 1.9 per cent to Y1,580,000.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

23. Japan sees slower growth in Q2

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9bcf5cf6-28d7-11db-a2c1-0000779e2340.html

Japan grew slower than expected in the second quarter, according to preliminary government estimates, as solid growth in private domestic demand was undermined by the rising cost of imports and a fall in public spending.

Gross domestic product in the three months to June rose a real 0.2 per cent over the previous quarter, or 0.8 per cent on an annualised basis. That was about half the consensus forecast.

Thanks to mild inflation, which followed years of price falls, nominal GDP growth outstripped that of real GDP, showing a rise of 0.3 per cent on the quarter.

Government ministers played down the headline number, pointing out that consumption and capital expenditure — now the main engines of growth — were more robust than expected.

The headline figure was brought down, one government official said, by special factors such as a drop in housing investment due to uncertainty about new anti-earthquake regulations. Inventories also fell sharply, suggesting there would be a strong bounce back in production in the third quarter, he said.

Recent monthly data, including strong machinery orders and bank lending this week, suggested such optimism might be warranted, economists said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

25. Japan’s overseas investment gains at record

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/fa0a84e4-28c8-11db-a2c1-0000779e2340.html

Japan’s income from overseas investments surged 30 per cent to a record high while its trade surplus shrank 23 per cent to a record low in the first six months of this year, highlighting a structural shift in the country’s economy.

The income surplus reached Y7,031bn ($61bn, €47bn, £32bn) in the first half of the year, according to figures released yesterday by the ministry of finance, taking it to the highest level since 1985, the earliest year for which comparable statistics are available.

In contrast, the country’s trade surplus shrank to Y4,044bn, largely because of higher import costs. This was the lowest level since 1985.

The current account figures suggest the Japanese economy is moving away from its heavy dependence on income from trade, and deriving more income from investments in businesses and financial assets overseas. This was the third time the country’s six-monthly income surplus had renewed its record, the finance ministry said.

<snip>

The trade surplus could, however, change course as the figures were cyclical and influenced by business and commodity price cycles, Mr Shirakawa said. If the price of commodities, particularly oil, fell, this would push up the trade surplus, he said. The income surplus was also boosted by higher interest rates overseas and a relatively weak yen.

Japan’s current account surplus rose 7.8 per cent in the first half to Y9,437bn.

/...

[UpInArms]

21. Judge Orders $1 Million Cash Added to Conrad Black's Bond (for lying)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/business/media/11black.html?ex=1312948800&en=5b17dbd6ef9e39b0&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

CHICAGO, Aug. 10 (Reuters) — A federal judge raised the bond for the media baron Conrad M. Black by $1 million in cash on Thursday, saying he had lied about how much he was worth.

Judge Amy St. Eve of United States District Court in Chicago, who is overseeing Lord Black’s coming trial on racketeering and fraud charges, agreed with prosecutors that Lord Black had misrepresented his assets, but denied their request to revoke his bond and put him in jail.

“It’s appropriate to increase the bond somewhat in this case,” Judge St. Eve told lawyers for Lord Black in demanding an additional $1 million in cash.

“I’m not here to micromanage his finances,’’ the judge said. “I’m here to assure bond is sufficient to assure his future appearances before this court.”

A lawyer for Lord Black said the additional $1 million would be paid.

Up to now, Lord Black’s $20 million bond has been secured by $30 million in assets, including a Florida home. Some of those assets are subject to forfeiture if he is convicted.

In his original filing used by the judge to set bond, Lord Black underestimated the worth of some Canadian media holdings by millions. They have since been sold. He also left out a Canadian tax lien and a mortgage on his Florida property.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. pre-opening blather

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5.

09:04 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Some pretty steady action in the futures market has stocks on course for a relatively uneventful start. With the Retail Sales report out of the way, and surprisingly, not much reaction to it, we could be in store for a lackluster day of trading as there isn't anything else scheduled for today that holds market-moving sway. In turn, with the tension between Israel and Hezbollah escalating, and the recent reminder that one can't grow complacent to the threat of terrorist action, buying conviction is apt to be lacking ahead of the weekend.

08:39 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Retail Sales for July checked in stronger than expected with overall sales up 1.4% (consensus +0.8%) and sales, ex-autos, up 1.0% (consensus 0.5%. There were downward revisions to the June results, which have lessened the impact of July's increase a bit, but clearly, consumer spending remains in a good state. A number reflecting that point is the 0.6% increase in sales excluding autos, building materials, and gasoline. The futures market backed up some on the initial report as the data piqued concerns about the Fed possibly returning with another tightening, but net-net, there has been little change from the levels seen prior to the report.

08:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. With a lack of catalysts, futures traders are showing little conviction at the moment, and as a result, stocks appear headed for a relatively flat beginning. There is potential for a change in tone at the bottom of the hour when the Retail Sales report for July is released, as participants will be eying it for insight on the state of consumer spending. Economists are expecting a 0.8% increase in overall sales and a 0.5% increase, excluding autos.

[UpInArms]

26. Glaxo to Pay $70 Million to Settle Suits for Inflating Drug Prices

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/business/11glaxo.html?ex=1312948800&en=a2854bb5706eb32d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

GlaxoSmithKline, the pharmaceutical company, said yesterday that it had agreed to pay $70 million in a national settlement of civil lawsuits that accused the company of inflating costs of several medicines, including its blockbuster Zofran nausea drug.

The deal follows a separate $150 million settlement that Glaxo reached in September to resolve government charges that it had fraudulently inflated the price of drugs bought by federal health care programs.

The pharmaceutical company said the latest settlement resolved suits filed in recent years against it by individuals, health plans and six states.

The states involved are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Montana, Nevada and New York.

Glaxo said 34 other states and the District of Columbia would also be eligible to receive money from the settlement.

The suits accused Glaxo of inflating the average wholesale price of its medicines as far back as the early 1990’s. Many insurers and government health plans reimburse doctors and pharmacies for medicines based on the stated average wholesale price.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Brocade Communications Officers Settle Suits Over Options

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/business/11brocade.html?ex=1312948800&en=0930faa19640faec&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 10 (Bloomberg News) — Officers and directors of Brocade Communications Systems Inc., the software maker, agreed to strengthen corporate governance and pay $525,000 along with former executives to settle shareholder lawsuits over stock-option backdating.

The settlement resolves some claims that Brocade, based in San Jose, Calif., misled investors before restating earnings twice last year because it did not properly account for backdated stock option grants to employees.

The company has been swept up in an investigation into illegal backdating and manipulation of employee stock option grants. On Thursday, its former chief executive, Gregory L. Reyes, and the former vice president for human resources, Stephanie Jensen, were indicted by a grand jury on charges of conspiracy and securities fraud.

They are accused of backdating job offer letters so employees could be given stock option grants that were priced when shares were lower.

The two were originally charged in a criminal complaint by prosecutors on July 20. The grand jury indictment includes additional charges of conspiracy, falsifying regulatory filings and making false statements to auditors. An indictment allows the government to proceed to trial.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Gold recovers as oil prices resume upward trend

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BECCEE025%2D4F91%2D40D7%2D8CF5%2DB27A626B8378%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Friday, rebounding from the lows hit a day earlier when oil prices responded to a terror scare by falling sharply, overriding the metal's traditional role as a safe-haven instrument.

Gold for December delivery was last trading up $3.50 at $649.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract briefly ticked higher on Thursday on the news that U.K. authorities had apparently thwarted a terror plot against air flights from Britain to the U.S. but later gave way as oil fell sharply and the dollar rose.

Ned Schmidt, editor of The Value View Gold Report, said the notion that terror fears would deter people from flying, thereby reducing demand for oil and easing oil price-driven inflation, was misguided.

"Gold, at these levels and for the next week, is a buy for investors," he said.
Oil was last trading up 60 cents at $74.60 a barrel, pulling gasoline, heating oil and natural gas prices higher with it.

...more...

I wondered why gold did not jump yesterday with the Terra! Terra! Terra! and the heightened ORANGE and RED color coding - well, surprise! surprise! surprise! that "plot" was old and known and only after they "caught" their "bad guys" did they even raise the alerts :grr:

Why raise the color coding after it's over? The only thing that comes to my mind is that Rove thinks the political gain can take the Bush-Kissing Joe off the front pages.

[UpInArms]

31. 9:35 EST Wheels turnin' at the Casino

Dow 11,098.03 -26.34 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,063.17 -8.57 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,268.88 -2.93 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.957 +0.03 (+0.61%)

NYSE Volume 68,342,000
Nasdaq Volume 71,167,000

[UpInArms]

34. advancers/decliners

9:37 AM ET 8/11/06 NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 17 TO 8

9:38 AM ET 8/11/06 NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 8 TO 3

[UpInArms]

35. 9:55 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,096.19 -28.18 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,060.02 -11.72 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,267.62 -4.19 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.965 +0.038 (+0.77%)

NYSE Volume 210,364,000
Nasdaq Volume 178,755,000

09:45 am : The market has gotten off to a soft start, which is in keeping with the pre-opening indication provided by the futures market. The initial decline is being paced by the technology sector (-0.6%), which is on the defensive after some disappointing reports from chip makers Analog Devices (ADI 28.06, -3.84) and NVIDIA (NVDA 22.82, -1.34). The latter company actually topped quarterly revenue estimates, but held off on reporting earnings due to an investigation into its stock option grant practices that has revealed some incorrect grants. DJ30 -22.26 NASDAQ -6.31 SP500 -2.63 NASDAQ Vol 109 mln NYSE Vol 79 mln

[biscotti]

37. Novice question

How do I watch a NASDAQ OTC stock progress on a UK stock? The symbol I check always says unchanged from the previous day until 6pm central time. I don't understand the difference in the regular NASDAQ and the OTC NASDAQ. Hope it is OK to ask a question in this thread. Thanks

[ozymandius]

47. Seems that the difference would be in a time delay due to the

nature of trading. OTC stocks pricing does not register with the same brisk pace as electronically traded stocks do. OTC stocks are traded in a very old-fashioned way: by hand.

Look here for a definition of OTC Nasdaq.

Look here for a definition of OTC in general.

[biscotti]

49. Thank you so much

I have been trying to figure that out for a while. Just looking through the Nasdaq web site
got me no where and my broker said it was just the time difference. I felt there had to be a different reason.

[skids]

41. Another "where's the money going" day...

Metals down, futures down, bonds not selling, stocks down, and forex down except for the looney. So what, people are buying a whole lotta loonies, or is it foreign stocks, or are they just paying down their 4th mortgages?

[Buttercup McToots]

42. What the hell is going on?

Saw this on another board...

Gold up $9 and gold stocks flat. You know what that means, I assume. When you see this setup, it means that hedge funds are buying gold futures (paper gold), to dupe retail into buying gold shares, which they themselves are shorting like crazy.

When they have built their short position up completely, they sell the paper gold, at a profit, and retail panics and throws their shares down on the ground. Seen this movie many times.

This is illegal trading. If someone can buy enough paper gold to move the markets, then they should be barred from trading gold stocks, since they have information not available to the investing public about the underlying metal that supports the stocks.

Bloody Hell!

This game don't play fair...

[loudsue]

43. Where are the closing numbers? Have the SMW thread gurus taken off early?

Ok, I know it's Friday. But some of us check back here all during the day, and, well, it's still light outside!

:hi: Anybody home???

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

44. drive by closing (sorry - no time today :(

Dow 11,088.03 -36.34 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,057.71 -14.03 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,266.74 -5.07 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.967 +0.04 (+0.81%)

NYSE Volume 2,012,110,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,467,445,000

The market languished in negative territory from bell to bell, bogged down by rate hike concerns that followed a stronger than expected Retail Sales report for July, a weak showing from the transportation and semiconductor stocks, and an underlying sense of anxiety ahead of the weekend due to the geopolitical unrest and next week's key inflation data.

Buyers, for the most part, were absent throughout the session, although they did appear in the last half hour of trading to help pare larger losses after a Reuters report indicated that the U.N. had authorized a force of up to 15,000 U.N. troops to monitor a truce in Lebanon.

The overall tone of today's session, however, was a negative one, and it was seen in the breadth figures which favored decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. Similarly, the performance of the ten economic sectors spoke to the market's negative bias as nine of ten economic sectors finished the day with a loss. The lone winner was Telecom Services, which eked out a negligible gain (+0.09%).

Although the Materials sector (-1.20%) suffered the biggest loss in the face of persistent growth concerns, it was the weakness in the technology sector (-0.80%) that had the greatest influence on the broader market. In particular, semiconductor stocks got hit hard after disappointing earnings results and guidance from Analog Devices (ADI 26.73, -5.17). The SOX Index fell 2.3% and was trailed only by the Dow Jones Transportation Average (-1.70%) in the loss department among the market's most closely followed averages.

The Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.10%), meanwhile, was a relative pocket of strength as it garnered support from an impressive earnings report out of retailer Kohl's (KSS 60.76, +2.57) and word that overall retail sales in July increased 1.4%, and 1.0%, excluding autos. Those healthy gains topped consensus estimates of +0.8% and +0.5%, respectively, and validated the argument that consumer spending remains in a good state. That same consideration, though, piqued concerns that the Fed might be inclined to return to its rate hike ways when it convenes for its FOMC meeting in September.

The latter thought was enough to keep most buyers sidelined ahead of next week's key inflation data that will take the form of the Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, and Capacity Utilization reports.DJ30 -36.34 NASDAQ -14.03 SP500 -5.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1941/1003/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2145/1117/1.32 bln

3:25 pm : We can't call the trading action volatile, but it can be labeled as being negative considering the indices haven't seen the light of positive territory all day, and currently, reside near their worst levels of the session. Overall, there has simply been an absence of buyers to this point, as participants don't appear willing to make any aggressive bets on the long side of things going into the weekend and knowing there is a batch of influential inflation reports awaiting them next week.DJ30 -59.48 NASDAQ -17.49 SP500 -7.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1974/955/1.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2235/1012/1.08 bln

3:00 pm : The final hour of trading has arrived, and if the market's form of late holds true, one shouldn't be surprised to see some added volatility. As it stands now, the indices have been holding close to their worst levels of the day for the better part of the afternoon session with buyers showing little conviction. Similar to yesterday, airlines are playing a large role in the Transportation Average's weakness. FedEx (FDX 98.26, -2.02) is leading today's slide that has 18 of the average's 20 components registering a decline.DJ30 -56.20 DJTA -1.71% NASDAQ -16.16 SP500 -6.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1973/921/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2227/1014/1.00 bln

:hi:

[Roland99]

46. Alas, I won't be able to check in daily anymore

New rules at work but, I guess that's why they call it work!

:)

[54anickel]

48. Sorry I was a slacker today. Hey, I HAD to go to the fair!!!!

[loudsue]

50. Thanks all! UIA I appreciate the check in. Nickel - hope the Fair was

good fun!

:hug:

You guys are the BEST!