Syrian Minister Rejects Cease-Fire Plan

[maddezmom]

BEIRUT, Lebanon Aug 6, 2006 (AP)— The Syrian foreign minister declared on Sunday that the U.S.-French cease-fire plan was "a recipe for the continuation of the war" and he warned his armed forces were under orders to respond immediately if Israel attacks.

"If Israel attacks Syria by any mean, on the ground, by air, our leadership ordered the armed forces to reply immediately," Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said after emerging from a meeting with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=2279215&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

[wakeme2008]

1. smart move... Let Israel make the first strike and then hit them hard

This is not the Cheney/Rummy plan....

[hack89]

2. Syria has no real offensive capability

beyond chemical weapons - and there is no way they are headed down that path.

[wakeme2008]

3. I do not know

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/syria/airforce.htm

The Air Force, which was independent of Army Command, consisted of about 100,000 regular and 37,500 reserve officers and men. In 1985 its 9 fighter-ground attack squadrons and an estimated 15 interceptor squadrons totaled approximately 650 combat aircraft. Almost all combat planes were Soviet manufactured and included 50 MiG-25 and MiG-25R (Foxbat) interceptors and nearly 200 MiG-23S/U (Flogger) and Su-17 FitterK ground-attack and multirole aircraft. In 1986 there were reports that the Soviet Union had agreed to provide Syria at least two squadrons of the advanced supersonic MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter aircraft equipped with top-of-the-line avionics. The air force was equipped with approximately ninety attack helicopters of the Mi-24/Mi-25 Hind and SA-342 Gazelle types. As part of an effort to upgrade its command-and-control network, the air force was reported to have the Tu-126 (Moss) AWACS.



....

While not the newest planes,,, how many have to get to Israel before major damage is done.

[Solo_in_MD]

5. Having the tools and knowing how to use them are two different things

Syria has never fielded a competent military force and there is no reason to think this one is any better.

The answer to your question is really could they get a single strike in on Israel before they were shot down. The answer to that is maybe if IAF is not paying attention to air defense. Don't forget that Israel also has the best US SAMs out there. The price for that single strike would be horrific and worse if cheminal weapons, even worse.

[hack89]

6. Does 87 to 2 ring a bell?

that was the score the last time the Syrian AF took on the IAF.

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj89/hurley.html

The planes are the least of it (even though Israel has better planes) - Israel has an overwhelming advantage in: command and control, electronic warfare, air-to-air missiles, tactics and (most importantly) pilot training.

[wakeme2008]

7. If they take out Israel's Nuc Power station and

power lines live in Israel will not be good. And how many planes have to get through to do that.

[Solo_in_MD]

11. Depends what they go after

You normally don't go after the reactor itself, you hit the distribution nodes or the turbines. A hit on either takes them down for an extended period. Theoretically it would only take one plane with one bomb. However, look at where it is located vs where the planes would have to come from. If Syria got a massive single wave up, and its preparations went undetected, they might get through the air defenses, including CAPs and SAMs, but it would be iffy. The counter strike would be massive and would effectively end the Assad regime.

Also Israel has the C&C thing down a lot better than most nations. Redundant power and comm links are basic to that strategy. The real impact would be to the Israeli psyche. Anyones guess if it would be a wake up call to back off or energize them to supporting the total destruction of Syria.

[JackNewtown]

24. And that was with Soviet planes

Without being supplied with modern aircraft from a superpower, the SAF should fare even worse today against the American armed and financed (About 25% of Israel's military budget comes from US taxpayers) IAF.

[Solo_in_MD]

4. Assad can not afford to lose so he will not poke Israel directly

but continue to use Hezbollah as his proxy.

[wakeme2008]

8. If Israel attacks Syria,, He will fight back IMHO nt

[Solo_in_MD]

9. But I doubt israel will unless they catch him red handed with

Hezbollah weapons in Syria or such. There have been discussions that the long range rockets are stashed in Syria and are used in a shoot or scoot fashion.

Short of the Israel has no reason to attack Syria directly and Assad should be smart enough not to give them reason to. I would not be surprised to see Hezbollah try a false flag op to stir things up though.

[MrPrax]

10. Chemical weapons?

You got any citations for this?

There are reports of phosphorus bombs being used by Israel in Lebanon...were these the type of chemical weapons you were talking about?

[Solo_in_MD]

12. Syria has not been under embargo so an assumption of some kind

of chemical weapons capability is reasonable. Nothing demonstrated that I know of. Note also that white phosphorus is not considered a chemical weapon in this context.

[MrPrax]

22. LOL...

Yeah just like it was reasonable to assume Saddam had them...some people never learn, huh?

I would post George Santayana's maxim, but I always thought that was one of the stupidiest sayings around.

White Phosphorus IS a chemical weapon when used for combat purposes other than lumination. Just like tear gas that is meant for street use -- if thrown into small rooms with poor ventilation, it can cause death, spontaneous abortions, stroke, etc etc.

But that was the atrocities from the first infitada -- did Israel ever get any 'new' tear gas to terrorize the people in the West Bank and Gaza strip or they still using that banned stuff? ;-)

[Solo_in_MD]

23. I was speaking from a tactical perspective

and given Saddam's past actions, keeping a MOPP suit handy was a reasonable precaution.

I see from other posts in this thread that Syria is known to have a Chemical weapons program (I should have looked it up)...but Syria having chemical weapons is not adequate justification for the IDF to attack. However, if things do go hot there, first use of gas by Syria and Damascus could well be toast.

Willie Pete is not in the same class as nerve or blister agents. It is not considered a WMD. So in this context, it is not considered a chemical weapon, neither is tear gas. I've seen the effects of WP up close, and know how horrific it its, so I am not minimizing it, but VX it is not.

[hack89]

13. Here you go...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/syria/cw.htm

Syria has developed a robust chemical weapons program, perhaps one of the most advanced in the Middle East, and a variety of delivery methods. The country is still very depending on outside assistance in procuring important precursor chemicals and equipment.

Apparently, during the early 80’s, a policy decision within the Syrian government, led to the rapid development of non-conventional weapons. It is likely this decision was the result of the realization that Syria could not reach conventional military parity with Israel.

The Syrian arsenal is said to be comprised mostly of large amounts of Sarin in addition to tabun, mustard gas and is reportedly producing and weaponizing VX.

As you can see, quite a step up from white phosphorus.

[bemildred]

14. Yep, and plenty of SCUDs. nt

[Karmadillo]

15. Syria ready for regional war, blasts UN resolution

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2006/08/06/afx2930131.html

BEIRUT (AFX) - Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said Damascus is ready for regional war and condemned a draft UN resolution seeking to end the violence in Lebanon as merely a recipe for more conflict.

'If Israel attacked Syria by any means from the ground or the air, our leadership has ordered the armed forces to reply immediately,' he said, after meeting with pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud.

Muallem, who was due to participate tomorrow in Beirut in an Arab foreign ministers' meeting on Israel's devastating 26-day-old offensive on Lebanon, also condemned a UN draft resolution on the conflict.

The draft, sponsored by the United States and France, called for a 'full cessation' of fighting, but not for the immediate pullout of Israeli forces from Lebanon.

'The UN resolution is a recipe for the continuation of the war... and a recipe for civil war (in Lebanon) that nobody has interest in but Israel,' Muallem said.

[cornermouse]

16. That campfire Bush set has escaped

and is on its way to becoming a very large, very bad forest fire.

[cali]

17. He's added to my long list of people about whom

I say; "screw him". I'm sick of people who are ready for war.

[rodeodance]

18. Have no fear--the bushies are strategizing down on the ranch.

[cali]

19. and triple screw them

I can always hope for a tornado that whisks them off to Oz.

[Poll_Blind]

21. "If Israel attacked Syria by any means from the ground or the air"

 sp:Sounds like he's saying that Syria would retaliate if attacked by Israel. I've seen enough of your posts to know that you're just as sick of the Israeli agression but his statement is predictable from any country who has reasonable reason to believe that it may be attacked.

PB

[Poppyseedman]

20. Question

'We defend Lebanon and its resistance against any plan that they try to impose on it through UN Security Council resolutions which do not reflect the Lebanese military victory over the Israeli army,' he said.

Correct me if I am wrong here. I thought the Lebanese military was not involved in the fighting

Muallem said a ceasefire could only be achieved if Israel withdrew from Lebanon, including the disputed Shebaa Farms,

Is not the Shebba Farms an issue between Lebanon and Syria?

Translation: We will agree with the creasefire to get a reversal on the UN decision on the Shebba Farm disagreement that gave it to Lebanon after Israel left in 2004 ???