New Voters, Unaffiliated Rush To Join Democrats (CT primary)

[Pale Blue Dot]

http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-newdems0805.artaug05,0,4759056.story

As Tuesday's primary draws near, town halls across the state are being inundated by people who want to register with the Democratic Party, according to the secretary of the state and town registrars.

From May through Friday, 11,496 unaffiliated voters became registered Democrats. From May through the end of July, 10,344 new voters became registered Democrats, said Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. "If you think about those Democrats, those are people who are obviously motivated to participate. That could have an impact on not only turnout, but election results," Bysiewicz said.

The race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate has drawn national interest, and challenger Ned Lamont has a double-digit lead over incumbent Joseph I. Lieberman, according to a poll released Thursday. Some have likened the primary to a referendum on the Iraq war, which Lieberman has supported.

<snip>

Since Bysiewicz started the Affiliate to Participate initiative in July, nearly 5,000 unaffiliated voters have become Democrats, compared with just more than 1,000 a month earlier. The number of unaffiliated voters who became Republicans rose slightly, from 117 in June to 161 in July.

[Tuttle]

1. I wonder if Joe will go GOP?

it looks pretty bad for him... Zell Lieberman.

I read the article but didn't see any info about the cut off date/time: anyone here know that info (actually I think I read it ended awhile back and was surprised to see this).

Tut-tut

[Junkdrawer]

2. Crossovers?

:shrug:

[jonnyblitz]

4. no, the deadline for that was May. Like the headline says

the unaffiliated are registering. This has been brought up before in previous discussions here at DU and I am pretty sure May was the deadline mentioned for switching parties here in CT.

[Tuttle]

19. so what is the deadline?

People may still want to sign on.

Tut-tut

[Tuttle]

21. answering my own question

"Unaffiliated voters, who make up roughly 45 percent of the electorate, have until noon on Monday to change their registration."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/05/nyregion/05lieberman.html

Tut-tut

[jpkenny]

3. This will be part of the blow-back from the Iraqi invasion and Lebanon

atrocities. It is seething under the surface as more and more Christian evangelicals are secretly defying their leadership, beginning to think for themselves, and understand what they can clearly see and hear with their own senses. Polls won't pick up the sickening feelings of many decent Americans who now also see Israel bombing, unprovoked, Christian areas of Lebanon and carrying out crimes against humanity equaled only by Rwanda and the Holocaust. They won't speak out in public but I can tell you for sure that in many homes around the dinner table there is much talk about how the Christian religion has been hijacked by RW, hawkish, neocon controlled fundamentalists. Thease people will be out in droves or some may just refuse to vote at all if they can't in good conscience vote for a Dem. CT is really the tip of the iceberg. And are they sorry they ever voted for this current administration? You bet they are.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

5. Further evidence that 2004 election was stolen

Whenever there is a surge in registered voters, that usually means that people are eager to vote *against* incumbents. This occurred in 2004 when record numbers of people registered to vote, mostly Democrats. And yet the corporate media wants us to believe that George Bush won. I wonder if Zell LIEberman will attempt a Diebold on us?

We have to make sure the numbers turn out BIG and the polling data isn't even close. Let's see what happens. 4 days is an eternity in politics. One small mistake, one mishap, a slight gaffe, faux paus and it's over for either candidate...

[flyarm]

13. Conn does not have the DRE voting machines..they have the old machines

the lever machines..so diebold, ES&S AND SEQUOIA ARE NOT IN CONN!

[w4rma]

20. Yup. As Israel bombs Christian Lebanese who are nowhere near

the Hezbollah areas.

[Zhade]

29. I agree, but the Holocaust comparison is WAY off.

Israel's war crimes are very real, and very repugnant, but not on that level - though tactics similar to those the Nazis used are being employed (namely, collective punishment).

[rodeodance]

6. good

[Rene]

7. Lieberman will be voted out and should stay out because of

several reasons. he was one of the originators of that behomoth, ridiculous agency they formed Dept of Homeland Security that's an awful waste of money(any new administration should dismantle it as their first priority); he was an originator of the gang of 14 that did not protect the American people against activist judges(as we've learned from Kennedy's writing on the rulings of Roberts and Alito); he's an "Israel first' legislator and they're going to be tossed out across the nation; and he enabled bush on too many topics to list (primarily the Iraq war and it's total false-premise start and it's 3+ year long mismanagement).
I went on Lieberman's bus trip from CT to New Hampshire when he was 'rejuvenating' his bid for the Presidency back in 2004....listed to his lame, hashed over uninspiring statements. I don't see why ANYONE would follow that man.
CT wanted to get rid of Weicker because of the income tax he installed after promising not too....Joe Lieberman happened to be in the right place at that time and got selected as an anti-weicker choice. He's just been a Democrat place holder since...and he's turned into a Repug enabler. Joe's got to go.

I'm not happy that Weicker is a Lamont backer.....but we'll deal with that later.

Weicker is as useless as tits on a bull.....and a liar. I, for one, wish he didn't even reside in CT any longer.

[Tuttle]

9. Weicker was governor with the income tax

Rene said

...CT wanted to get rid of Weicker because of the income tax he installed after promising not too....Joe Lieberman happened to be in the right place at that time and got selected as an anti-weicker choice. He's just been a Democrat place holder since...and he's turned into a Repug enabler. Joe's got to go...

Convicted felon John Rowland promised to end the income tax, not Lowell Weicker (who said he "wouldn't rule it out").

BTW, Rowland first bid for the governor was a failed one where his issue was to criminalize those born with birth defects after a knife attack in downtown Middletown: the victims family pleaded with Rowland not re-open the wounds, but he wanted the governor's seat very badly... Now he lives off a tidy pension paid for by the citizens of Connecticut.

Lieberman defeated Weicker for the Senate seat - nothing to do with state income tax - because Weicker got too progressive for his Republican credentials (kinda sounds familiar in an inside-out sort of way).

Weicker ran for governor (and won) on the "A Connecticut Party" ticket - both the Dems and 'pukes owe him big time for establishing their cash cow as an independent.

Tut-tut

[Stuckinthebush]

8. Not so sure this is a bad thing for Joe

Unaffiliated voters are usually more moderate or see themselves as 'independent'. They may be more inclined to agree with Joe about a number of issues including the war. This could be a rush of voters who like Joe and normally vote for him in the general, but see that he may lose in the primary and must get in there to support him.

With the race in double digits for Lamont, I don't suspect that these people are now rushing in to register Dem so they can lend their support to the guy who is predicted to win anyway.

Look at this quote:

"Some of them have indicated that the day after the primary they're going to go back to being unaffiliated," Byrnes said.

No...this doesn't sound good for Lamont.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

10. I don't think Lamont is predicted to win...

Again, anything can happen in 4 days. It could actually be that people are registering as Dems because they have learned more about Lamont and expect for it to be a close race. Also, if they were so gung ho about Joe, then why are they just now registering? I think people are galvanized by this particular race. Politics bears this out: when there is an increase in registrations, the conventional wisdom is that it spells trouble for the incumbent. If there are a lot of disgruntled voters, their eagerness to register as Democrats can only be beneficial to the challenger.

I still think anything goes and there's no guarantee of a Lamont win. I'm just not that confident yet. Living in D.C. as a political scientist has taught me to be ever skeptical about the world of politics. Anything can make a difference. Let's see. It's getting very interesting, at any rate.

[Stuckinthebush]

15. Well I hope you are right

I'd like to see Lamont win.

Yes, this race is fascinating from a political science perspective, isn't it?

[krkaufman]

17. "why just now?"

if they were so gung ho about Joe, then why are they just now registering?

Because Lamont wasn't so far ahead in the polls until just recently. Lazy, unaffiliated or Independent voters may have been sitting back expecting Lieberan to turn on the juice and pull away down the stretch. Instead, the challenger is gaining more strength and has actually built a significant (polling) lead.

So some/many/most/all of this registration surge could be Lieberman voters. There's no way of knowing w/o having some sort of post-registration exit poll.

Sure does make for an interesting next couple of days, though.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

33. You might be right, but...

it just defies the conventional wisdom of politics and makes no sense. Again, there's no guarantee of a Lamont win, but some things are predictable and others aren't. This is one of the theories that political scientists have tested for years, and I believe it rings true. Disgruntled Americans, eager to vote in critical elections, don't usually turn out at the last minute unless they are pissed off at the incumbent. Again, this particular election may prove to be an aberration, but we'll have to wait in see. All indications point to an advantage for Lamont, not Lieberman.

[Pale Blue Dot]

22. Lamont is now predicted to win in EVERY SINGLE poll taken

in the past three weeks. By as many as 10-14 percentage points.

[calico1]

12. I was one of those unaffiliated, though in recent

elections I voted almost all for Democrats. I switched so that I could participate in the primaries because I so want to see Lieberman out. They did a report on the local news about this issue and the feeling was that this tended to favor Lamont. One woman interviewed coming out of her town hall said that she had to register as a Democrat because she hated the war and she had to cast her vote for Lamont. I would say that Independents are split about 50/50 with regard to support for the war. But it is also apparent that Lamont is stirring up a lot more enthusiasm than Lieberman is. The momentum and enthusiasm is on Lamont's side, not Lieberman's. Most of the people voting for Joe are already registered to vote. From what I am seeing and reading in the local news, I just don't see a big burst of enthusiasm for Lieberman. He's had to pay people to work in his campaign, while Lamont has tons of volunteers. I could be wrong of course but I just don't see it there for Lieberman. He's got a lot of establishment for him as far as support but because this is a primary and turnout tends to be low, I just don't see people rushing to their town halls because of Joe Lieberman.

[Stuckinthebush]

14. Good news!

That makes me feel better.

[JerseygirlCT]

24. It's only in the last couple of days I've seen a couple of

Lieberman lawn signs around.

Meanwhile the number of Lamont signs keeps growing around here.

[krkaufman]

16. Agreed. Increasing registration, when Lieberman is in such ...

... publicly dire peril, does not necessarily mean a surge of potential Lamont voters. They could just as easily be unaffiliated, middle-of-the-stream voters* who want to keep Lieberman in place.

* didn't want to use the term "moderate", since there's nothing moderate about being so clueless that you'd think Republicans and Conservatives are anything other than harmful to the long-term health of the country.

[JerseygirlCT]

23. That was my suspicion as well

The race is getting a whole lot of coverage here, as you might expect. The trend is now that the momentum is going Lamont's way. The Lieberman people seem to be quite nervous and are going all out -- and I mean all out (if I get another taped call, I'll scream! And the number of trees killed for campaign flyers...)

My suspicion would be these are Lieberman supporters who have finally realized there's a real race and a real chance Joe won't be the Dem. nominee in a few days.

Just a hunch.

[femmedem]

25. I optimistically disagree.

I live in CT, and I know a few unaffiliateds who switched in order to vote for Lamont. They were previously unaffiliated because they were disenchanted with both major political parties.

[Stuckinthebush]

26. So what is the mood there?

Do most people feel that it will be Lamont in a landslide, or are people nervous, hence the increased registrations?

My thoughts were based on the assumption that CT voters were sure that Lamont was walking away with this. If that is the case, then unaffiliated voters would have little need to go through the trouble of changing their registration. I am going with the hypothesis that people are lazy! But if there is still some nervousness about the possibility of a Lamont win, then it would make sense for those unaffiliated voters to switch.

Of course, there is the possibility that voters are so excited that there is a candidate that speaks for them that they are moving their registrations because of it. I guess I'm too pessimistic!

Thanks!

[femmedem]

27. I'd say the mood is "butterflies in the stomach."

I don't know anyone who's taking a Lamont win for granted. However, there is a sense of hope, which is rousing people to action.

I think a lot of the last-minute rush is due to people procrastinating. They've been planning to change their registration for a while; they just didn't get around to it until now.

Edit to add: I'll admit to living in an urban center, more progressive than most of the 'burbs. Has anyone seen a breakdown of what towns the changeovers are coming from? CT, after all, isn't as blue as most people assume. We've had a R governor for a long time. And my Congressman is R as well.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

34. I'm an example of an unaffiliated voter...

Maybe I can bring a little perspective on this:

I have been unaffilated, Independent voter for over 10 years now. Both the Dems and the Repugs turn me off. As a progressive and liberal, I've voted third party in Maryland for years, although I did vote for Kerry in 2004.

Well, I think like most critical elections, many Independents realize the high stakes. Here in Maryland, we have a contentious primary coming up and I rushed to switch from Ind to Dem so that I can participate in these closed primary elections.

So I think that people rushing to change party affiliations or registering for the first time doesn't bode well for the status quo. It never has. The logic is there: when people want a change, they are eager to express it at the voting both. I'm not suggesting that Lieberman supports aren't galvanize and don't fear retribution. All I'm saying is that in politics, the trend of uptick in registrations generally is a good sign for challengers because people want a change.

Again, it's getting interesting. Lamont is on the talk shows embracing the liberal label. It will be quite interesting to see how doing so would affect the race from here on.

Three days! Three days is an eternity in politics. Anything goes and anything can happen!!!!

I'm glued to this race, as well as my own here in Maryland.

[Iniquitous Bunny]

11. Lamont gives people a decent alternative.

A year ago, I was afraid I'd have to hold my nose and vote for Joe in the general election in November. Hopefully, I won't have to do that. Doesn't look like it, does it? :D

[IndianaGreen]

18. Are these "independents" that ended up voting for GOP?

I am very suspicious of these people rising from the ground like mushrooms.

[me b zola]

31. That is how I feel

...suspicious and uneasy. I hope Lamont supporters don't become apethetic because of the large leads in the polls.

[nasher]

28. I hope this helps Lamont, but I am not sure.

[MysteryToMyself]

30. A lot of new voters?

Could that possibly be Republicans crossing over to vote for MOe JOe?

[femmedem]

32. Fortunately, no.

New voters would refer to people who have never voted before. My guess is that they are overwhelmingly for Lamont, because Lamont, at least up until the last few days, has had a better field campaign and has probably registered many of these new voters.

The bad news is that, according to one campaign manager manual I read, new registrants are not very likely to vote. They have good intentions, but then they just don't. If I remember correctly, it takes an average of 3 campaign contacts to get a newly registered person to the polls.

Welcome to DU!:)

[TrueFunkSoldier]

35. You're absolutely right...

New registrants generally are not reliable voters, but there is reason to be optimistic: people who have never voted before and who register for the first time for a critical election is telling. In other words, voter participation generally tends to be extremely low in midterm elections. So, if there are *new* registrations, this says two things: (1) people are unusually determined to vote in this election and understand how crucial their vote is going to be; and (2) it wouldn't make sense for new registrants to go through the trouble of filling out the form, mailing it in; or, going to their local DMV to register, etc. only to not participate in this end. This is simply not a rational thing for voters to do. Unless they registered through the help of campaigns where they don't have to put forth too much effort, I just can't see them going through the trouble to get registered, then not showing up at the polls. I think it's the opposite. I think people are fired up and ready to participate, whether they are for Lamont or Lieberman. The fact that there is a surge in new voter registrations is a good thing. It means that people are taking their civic duty seriously and that makes people like me proud to know that there is still hope for our democracy. Thank God Diebold is not involved!

[newblewtoo]

36. crossing over ?

The GOP wants Joe to lose the primary and run as an independent or run as a 'thug (watch the courtship begin when he loses). They are not looking to do Lamont any favors. They want to split the fall Democratic vote. They do the same thing with the Greens. Divide and conquer by draining resources and votes in the primaries.

Someone up thread laid out the time table for the primary enrollment.