BBC: Civil war in Iraq 'most likely'

[Eugene]

Last Updated: Thursday, 3 August 2006, 07:05 GMT 08:05 UK

Civil war in Iraq 'most likely'

Civil war is the most likely outcome in Iraq, Britain's outgoing ambassador
in Baghdad has warned, in a confidential memo to ministers obtained by the BBC.

William Patey, who left the Iraqi capital last week, also predicted the break-up
of Iraq along ethnic lines.

He did also say that "the position is not hopeless" - but said Iraq would remain
"messy and difficult" for the next five to 10 years.

-snip-

The bleak assessment of the country's future was contained in Mr Patey's final
e-cable, or diplomatic telegram, from Baghdad.

-snip-

Full article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5240808.stm

Also: Leaked UK document sees "civil war" in Iraq - Reuters

[Syrinx]

1. seems to me, it's underway and has been for a while n/t

[ECH1969]

3. It could easily get many many times worse

and it may very well happen.

None of the religious leaders have yet committed themselves to war on the rival sect, they are all hedging their bets. The second Sadr or the Association of Muslim Scholars declares their intention to wage war on the other sect we will see the kind of bloodletting Iraq hasn't seen since 1993.

[Syrinx]

4. no doubt it could get worse, and probably will

I'm just wondering what is the yardstick this is measured by.

[Solly Mack]

2. Can't slide anything by some people

That man could predict wind in a tornado

[heliarc]

5. This battle of semantics...

would be funny if it weren't so sad. Denial. Pure and utter Denial. Not a river in Egypt, people. Face the music, Already!

[saigon68]

6. Really? No kidding?

He's been living in Borneo for some time now.

[IndianaGreen]

7. Ambassador: Shia militias becoming like Hezbollah in Lebanon

Talking about the Shia militias blamed for many killings, Mr Patey added: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Jaish al-Mahdi (the Mahdi Army) from developing into a state within a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5240808.stm

Those that supported Bush's drive toward war in Iraq, should be very pleased with the consequences to the US, the UK, and Israel of their folly.

Why do we listen to them when they advocate war against Iran and Syria?

[Virginia Dare]

8. Yes, and it will probably snow this winter too....n/t

[Eurobabe]

9. It's been in a state of civil war for some time

What flippin' genius just figured this out?

[sabra]

10. k & r

for the truth

[uppityperson]

11. k&r for ambassadors that speak the truth

hoping they might get heard someday before situations deteriorate so much

[Marie26]

12. Iraq will be like Lebanon.

Trapped in a 15-year civil war between all the different ethnic & religious factions. And it will be our fault.

[Patiod]

13. No! Say it aint so!! Who could have predicted this!!!???

Next youre going to be telling me the levies might break in New Orleans!!!!!!

[keta11]

14. The sad part of this whole situation is -

Iraq will be a mess 5,10,15 years out as a consequence of the 2003 invasion, and the Republican propaganda machine will blame the Democratic? incumbent president for mismanaging Eye-raq. And the ass-clown former president who launched the war for vanity will be making money on the speaking circuit with not a thought about Iraq to trouble his beautiful mind.

Bush to reporter in the year 2010 - "Iraq? What is that?

[Name removed]

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