STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 1 August

[ozymandius]

Tuesday August 1, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 904 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2047 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1747 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1708
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 31, 2006

Dow... 11,185.68 -34.02 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq... 2,091.47 -2.67 (-0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,276.66 -1.89 (-0.15%)
Gold future... 646.80 -1.00 (-0.15%)
30-Year Bond 5.07% +0.00 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.99% -0.00 (-0.04%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

NOTING THE NOTABLES

For those of you who may have missed it, the New York Post’s John Crudele penned a piece last week titled, http://www.nypost.com/business/come_clean__ben__business_john_crudele.htm">Come Clean, Ben! Building on previous articles Crudele has written about the Plunge Protection Team . The piece highlights an exchange between Rep. Ron Paul and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke up on Capitol Hill a couple of weeks ago at the House Financial Committee hearings. The gist of Rep. Ron Paul’s line of questioning to the esteemed chairman was whether or not the PPT had in fact intervened in the equity markets to lend support to General Motors stock.

-cut-

Understand folks, the PPT constituents are the Treasury and, of course, the Fed as well as the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission.) When questioned by Rep. Paul, Crudele points out that Mr. Bernake “guessed” that the PPT met four or five times per year – but wasn’t sure.

When Rep. Paul asked Mr. Bernanke if ‘minutes’ or records were kept of the PPT meetings – Mr. Bernanke responded that he ‘believed’ there were records kept – but not completely sure by exactly who – and ‘did not know’ if those records would / could be made available to lawmakers.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

12:00 AM Auto Sales Jul
Briefing Forecast 5.5M
Market Expects 5.5M
Prior 5.3M

12:00 AM Truck Sales Jul
Briefing Forecast 7.7M
Market Expects 7.5M
Prior 7.2M

8:30 AM Personal Income Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.6%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.4%

10:00 AM Construction Spending Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior -0.4%

10:00 AM ISM Index Jul
Briefing Forecast 54.0
Market Expects 53.5
Prior 53.8

[Ghost Dog]

18. Inflation in line; futures fall

http://today.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage.aspx?type=markets&src&src=080106_0656_FEATURES_before_the_bell
8:43am ET

Stock futures were signaling a lower open for Wall Street on Tuesday after government inflation data came in line with expectations.

Core U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in June, continuing a steady march that has taken the year-on-year rate of nonfood, nonenergy inflation to 2.4 percent, its highest since September 2002, the Commerce Department said.

Personal income rose 0.6 percent in June. The data matched expectations on Wall Street.

With investors unsure if the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its meeting on Aug. 8, the core personal consumption expenditure price data -- a key inflation measure -- was getting extra attention.

/more...

[54anickel]

26. US June Personal Income, Spending Grow

http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/1364647,10,1,0,120,686,item.html

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. personal income and spending grew in line with estimates in June, while a key inflation indicator rose further beyond the central bank's implied comfort zone.
========================================================
U.S. Personal Income June May !Consensus Est.: !
Income +0.6% +0.4% ! (income) +0.6% !
Expenditures +0.4% +0.6%r !Actual: !
! +0.6% !
========================================================

By Campion Walsh
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. personal income and spending grew in line with estimates in June, while a key inflation indicator rose further beyond the central bank's implied comfort zone. Personal income rose in June at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.6%, after climbing an unrevised 0.4% in May, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

Meanwhile, personal consumption increased 0.4% in June, after a revised 0.6% expansion the month before, previously reported as a 0.4% increase.

The median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was for a 0.6% increase in personal income in June and 0.4% growth in consumer spending.

A price index for personal consumption expenditures - or PCE - excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% in June, the third straight month it has risen by that amount.

Compared with a year earlier, the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, grew 2.4% in June, the fastest growth since September 2002. The June rate was up from the 2.2% pace in May and April of this year.

The Federal Reserve is watching the core PCE and other economic indicators closely ahead of a meeting next week where it will decide whether or not to raise interest rates yet again after steady hikes since June 2004.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Treasurys slightly lower after inflation data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7B24D27D13-838E-40EC-ADA9-2E89C92F8D12%7D&keyword=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices edged slightly lower early Tuesday, sending yields higher, registering little reaction to a Commerce Department report that showed U.S. core consumer inflation rose to match an 11-year high in June.

The core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% for the third straight month in June, and has risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, matching the largest year-over-year gain since April 1995. See full story.

snip>

"While we deem this a negative for the market, it's not definitive for the Fed," said David Ader, government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The odds of an August interest rate hike increased slightly, but remained unlikely. Traders are now pricing in a 43% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its target on overnight rates to 5.50% from 5.25% after its policy setting meeting on Aug. 8, up from 32% before data.

Bond analysts at research firm Action Economics noted that the market's "muted reaction" to the PCE price data suggests "that the bond market is still fixated on the growth, rather than inflation outlook....remaining convinced of a pause next week."

snip>

A speech by new Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson at Columbia University at 10 a.m. will be closely monitored. The market is eager to figure out his stances on dollar policy and the Chinese yuan.

more...

[54anickel]

27. U.S. June construction spending up 0.3% vs. up 0.1% expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBD6B8FF9%2DBBAA%2D4B89%2D9102%2D5B7558AF82DD%7D&siteid=google

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects rose 0.3% in June to an annual rate of $1.22 trillion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists had anticipated an increase of 0.1% in June, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. June's outlays for private projects rose 0.1% to $944.7 billion. Construction outlays were flat in May, according to revised data. May outlays were previously estimated to decline by 0.4%.

[54anickel]

28. U.S. July ISM manufacturing index 54.7% vs 53.8% in June

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=fb7fa3a5-2ffd-4819-a5f2-4dc69bfe765a&siteid=google&dist=MorePulse

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States picked up unexpectedly in July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index rose to 54.7% in July from 53.8% in June. The rise was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to inch lower to 53.6%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders fell to 56.1% in July from 57.9% in June. But production picked up to 57.6% from 55.1% in the previous month. The employment index rose to 50.7% from 48.7%. The price index jumped to 78.5% from 76.5%. This is the highest level since October.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers near $75; Mideast worries, heat support

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil held steady near $75 on Tuesday as dealers remained on edge over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and after heat waves in the United States and Europe triggered a surge in natural gas prices.

U.S. light sweet crude for September delivery slipped 5 cents to $74.35 a barrel by 0723 GMT after gaining $1.16 on Monday.

London ICE Brent crude shed 22 cents to $74.93 a barrel, having widened its premium to U.S. crude on fears that a small pipeline leak on a branch of Russia's biggest oil pipeline to Europe could curtail supplies.

Russian officials said later that deliveries to Europe via the main line were unaffected by the spill.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Drivers try another gas to save gasoline

TOPSHAM, Maine - Many motorists seeking to improve their mileage as gas prices soar this summer are examining everything — right down to the air in their tires. And for a growing number, plain old air isn't good enough.

George Bourque of Fairfield is one of those who's driving around on tires filled with pure nitrogen, the same stuff that
NASCAR racers use.

Bourque, an engineer, said he has seen a 1 to 1.5 mile-per-gallon increase since he began filling his tires with nitrogen, which is touted as maintaining tire pressure longer and resisting heat buildup on hot summer days.

more

Cool! Costco is carrying Nitrogen for tires now.

[ozymandius]

5. Gas futures climb to near six-month high

WASHINGTON - Natural gas futures surged 14 percent to a near six-month high on Monday, rallying on strong demand from power producers amid scorching temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast.

-cut-

The U.S. heat wave drove up demand for natural-gas-fired electricity as consumers cranked up their air conditioners and many utilities asked homeowners to conserve electricity.

September natural gas futures jumped $1.027 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, settling at $8.211 per 1,000 cubic feet — the highest close for front-month natural gas futures since Feb. 3.

The upper Midwest and Plains were steamy, with heat warnings issued from Michigan to Oklahoma. Forecasts for above-normal highs were posted along the East Coast, where triple-digit readings were in the offing by midweek from the Carolinas through southern New England.

more

[ozymandius]

6. Pipeline leak in west Russia could pose serious threat: ministry

MOSCOW (AFP) - A major pipeline delivering oil from Russia to its European neighbours ruptured at the weekend, posing a potentially serious environmental threat, the government said.

"Taking account of the information the ministry has received from representatives of environmental NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Bryansk region, the consequences of this accident could lead to an ecological catastrophe," the ministry of natural resources said in a statement.

The accident occurred on Saturday on a section of the Druzhba pipeline running through the province of Bryansk, near Russia's border with Belarus.

"This was an accident of medium severity that has polluted a large part of the public forests," the ministry statement added.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Where will big oil's big profits go?

After a particularly heady gush of oil- company profits, everyone from industry executives to international energy policymakers seems to be asking the same question: What should be done with all that cash?

The scale of the windfall is stunning: Exxon Mobil reported Thursday $10.36 billion in quarterly profits for the three months ending June 30. The results beat Wall Street expectations and marked, according to the Associated Press, the second-highest quarterly profit in history. The highest ever? Exxon's $10.71 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005.

It's an industrywide earnings bonanza built on the very thing - rising oil prices - that have been a source of growing consumer anxiety during a summer of $3-a-gallon gasoline.

-cut-

The industry is lobbying against punitive measures such as a windfall profits tax, while pointing to its new spending on exploration and development. For example, Exxon Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson recently said he wants to boost oil and gas production 25 percent by 2010. The company said yesterday that it will spend $20 billion this year in that effort, with Russia, Qatar, and West Africa among the key growth areas. Last year, the company put $17.7 billion into exploration and capital spending, while earning $36 billion in profits.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0728/p01s03-usec.html

[ozymandius]

8. Paulson heads for Wall Street

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in his first major outing since taking over the post, heads for Wall Street on Tuesday to share his views about key challenges facing the economy.

The former Goldman Sachs chairman was sworn in on July 10 as President George W. Bush's third Treasury secretary, taking office when analysts agree growth is slowing while challenges including a huge U.S. trade deficit still loom.

Paulson's keynote appearance is at Columbia University in late morning where he is to deliver a speech, but before that he tours the New York Stock Exchange and at the end of his visit rings the closing bell on the Nasdaq.

On Monday, Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto described Paulson's address as "a look at the major economic structural challenges this country faces" but declined to define it more precisely.

more

[ozymandius]

9. Spending Less? You're Helping Slow the Economy

Conserving her family's cash as costs rise, Riverside resident Laureen Pittman is postponing vacations, home repairs and other big purchases. For necessities, she is increasingly relying on discount retailers, shopping at Costco instead of Ralphs and Marshalls instead of Nordstrom.

Belt-tightening by consumers like Pittman is a key reason the U.S. economy is slowing. Inflation-adjusted economic growth fell to a surprisingly sluggish 2.5% in the second quarter from 5.6% in the previous three months, largely because of slower consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The economy's latest growth rate was below the expected 3%, which is average for an economic expansion. It triggered a rally in stock and bond markets as investors boosted their expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon halt its anti-inflation campaign to raise interest rates.

Consumers — accustomed in recent years to spending more than they earn, saving little and tapping home equity to pay the bills — have clearly been hit by $3-plus gasoline prices. Whether that and other worries prompt consumers to scale back even more will largely determine whether the economy can maintain a slower but steady "soft landing" or veer toward recession, economists say.

more

[54anickel]

21. But, but. but what evern happened to that idea of a baton toss? You

know, the one where business spending will pick up where consumers left off? We've been hearing that for the last few years now. :eyes:

[54anickel]

39. Love the way they polish a turd in that article. Worth reading the entire

thing. What a joke!

But today's consumers — whose spending accounts for two-thirds of growth — are increasingly resilient, able to maintain their standard of living thanks to the global economy, experts say. Such globalization has a dual effect: Although cheap labor abroad suppresses wages, it also provides consumers with low-cost goods, keeping U.S. inflation down.

snip>

Consumers also are protected by a more stable job market. Employers are trying to increase efficiency with more technology and fewer new hires than in past expansions, leading to fewer job cutbacks.

Any recession now is likely to be milder than those in the past, because many manufacturing jobs — once the most volatile part of the economy — have been outsourced, removing the possibility of massive layoffs that sparked severe recessions, said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

snip>

Thanks in part to consumers' ability to cope, most analysts expect annualized economic growth to remain 2.5% to 3% for the rest of the year. As long as consumer spending continues to grow by more than 1% and the Fed keeps inflation under control, a recession is unlikely, said Jan Hatzius, an economist with Goldman Sachs.

snip to the race to the bottom paragraph>

Shoppers who earn $75,000 or less are switching to retailers such as Target and sampling discounters such as Dollar General, analysts said. Low-income shoppers who occasionally shopped at Wal-Mart are downgrading to Dollar General, 99 Cents Only Stores, Save-A-Lot and other deep discounters.

[ozymandius]

10. Tyson Foods Has Second Straight Loss, Cuts Forecast

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Tyson Foods Inc., the world's biggest meat processor, reported a second-straight quarterly loss and projected its first yearly loss since 1994 because of chicken and beef gluts.

The net loss was $52 million, or 15 cents a share, in the fiscal third quarter, after net income of $131 million, or 36 cents, a year earlier, Tyson Foods said today in a statement. Analysts expected a 3-cent loss, based on the average of 11 estimates in a Thomson Financial survey.

-cut-

Closed Export Markets

The operating loss in beef was Tysons's fourth straight as export markets such as Japan and South Korea remained closed. Japan last week lifted its mad-cow disease-related ban on U.S. beef that had been in effect since December 2003, except for a five-week period late last year and early this year.

Tyson is the world's biggest beef producer and the biggest U.S. exporter of the meat. Before imposing its ban, Japan was the biggest overseas customer for U.S. beef, buying about $1.4 billion worth in 2003, out of total U.S. exports of $3.8 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=axb1GWliTZmQ&refer=us

[stop the bleeding]

11. Thank you Ozy

kinda quiet around here since everyone is on hiatus :donut:

[Ghost Dog]

12. German Unemployment Falls, Europe Manufacturing Grows

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aHxopMP_COcc

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- German unemployment fell to the lowest in almost two years and European manufacturing expanded at close to the fastest pace since 2000, bolstering arguments the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates.

The jobless rate in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, declined in July to a seasonally adjusted 10.6 percent, matching the lowest since August 2004, from 10.8 percent in June, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc said its index based on a survey of purchasing managers slipped to 57.4 from June's 57.7, the highest since August 2000. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The economy of the dozen euro nations is weathering higher borrowing costs as the central bank seeks to contain inflation. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled an Aug. 3 move from 2.75 percent when he said July 6 the bank will show ``strong vigilance'' on inflation, language that preceded the last three increases.

<snip>

First-quarter economic growth in the euro region was driven by a 3.8 percent gain in exports, the European statistics agency reported July 12. Increased domestic spending will push the area's expansion to the fastest pace in more than two years by the final quarter, the European Commission said the same day.

The full-year advance may be stronger than the initial forecast of 2.1 percent, the fastest pace since 2000, the commission said May 8.

The expansion ``is stabilizing, and we see healthy growth in the euro zone this year,'' said Wolfgang Leim, an economist at Dresdner Bank in Frankfurt.

<snip>

The decline in unemployment is spurring confidence and spending. In Germany, Europe's biggest economy, the adjusted number of jobseekers fell 84,000 from June to 4.44 million. That's nearly three times as much as the drop of 30,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

<snip>

Joblessness in the euro area declined to 7.8 percent in June, the lowest since August 2001, from 7.9 percent in May, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today.

<snip>

Stronger growth and the effect of record oil prices on inflation are fueling expectations that the ECB will push rates higher as soon as the next council meeting on Aug. 3. All 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the ECB will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3 percent from 2.75 percent at the meeting.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

13. European equities struggle for direction

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/febd09fc-2126-11db-b650-0000779e2340.html

A mixed bag of earnings reports left European equity markets struggling for direction on Tuesday, as broadly pleasing results from Allied Irish Banks and KPN were countered by weakness from Deutsche Bank and Ryanair.

By midday, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 0.1 per cent to 1,339, the CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.2 per cent to 4,999.45, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax shed 0.1 per cent to 5,676.6 and London’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.2 per cent to 5,940.1.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

41. Inflation fears hit European equities

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/febd09fc-2126-11db-b650-0000779e2340.html

European stocks fell back sharply in afternoon trade after US inflation numbers dented hopes that US interest rates had peaked.

By mid afternoon, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.9 per cent to 1,326.91, the CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.1.2 per cent to 4,947.49, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax shed 1.4 per cent to 5,603.74 and London’s FTSE 100 slid 0.8 per cent to 5,879.4.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

43. European shares close down 1 pct on U.S. data

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-08-01T153557Z_01_L01052941_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-URGENT.XML

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - European shares closed almost 1 percent lower on Tuesday after U.S. economic data revived fears that the Federal Reserve will continue with its monetary tightening campaign next week.

A mixed batch of corporate earnings including poor trading income at Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) also weighed while a political source said Israel had decided to step up its offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> unofficially closed 0.9 percent down at 1,326.5 with the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> falling 0.7 percent to 11,110.36 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> dropping 1.4 percent.

Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> fell 1.5 percent, France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> slipped 1.2 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> lost 0.8 percent.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

15. Sharp drop in German unemployment (The FT has some doubts)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6c518a2c-2147-11db-b650-0000779e2340.html

<snip>

The release is the latest in a sustained raft of positive economic news out of Germany, including a 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in retail sales for the three months to July, the biggest in two years, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office this week.

While most economists now bank on growth of around 2 per cent this year, Germany will face formidable challenges in 2007, they warn, as reflected in weakening forward-looking confidence surveys.

Topping the list is the threat of a slow-down in the world economy and particularly the US, which would be a major setback for Germany’s export oriented industry.

Other adverse factors include political instability in the Middle-East, rising eurozone interest rates and a massive three-point rise in German value-added tax next January.

/more doubts...

[54anickel]

33. Hmmm, some of that sounds vaguely familiar

Concerns about the sustainability of the recovery could account for the remarkable rise in demand for temporary workers, as reported by temping agencies, although companies typically resort to temporary workers in the early phase of a recovery.

The heavy reliance on temporary staff is the most plausible explanation for a discrepancy between the improving job market statistics and corporate restructuring indicators, which show the number of lay-offs announced so far this year exceeding the 2005 figures.

snip>

[Ghost Dog]

16. Odds shorten on ECB rate rise

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/7ae86ff4-20a4-11db-8b3e-0000779e2340.html

Higher than expected Eurozone inflation and business confidence data on Monday bolstered expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates on Thursday.

July indicators published by the European statistics office showed business confidence in the 12 Eurozone countries at its highest in five years, while prices continued to rise well above the level deemed safe by the ECB.

The data confirmed many economists’ belief that the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points to 3 per cent this week.

Economic sentiment in the Euro currency area rose to 107.7 points in July from a revised June level of 107.1. Recent drops in regional confidence indicators – notably Germany’s widely-watched Ifo index – had led economists to forecast a drop.

At the same time, the rate of Eurozone inflation remained at the same level as June. The statistics office said prices were 2.5 per cent higher in July than the same month a year ago. The ECB’s aim is to keep inflation at or below 2 per cent.

Both sets of figures lent weight to those observers who argue that inflation-hawks on the ECB governing council are in the ascendant, and that the bank will quicken the pace of rate increases before the end of the year.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Gold in range, focus on dollar and oil

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2006-08-01T100239Z_01_L01886179_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-2.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=2

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Gold gyrated in a tight band on Tuesday as a marginal rise in the dollar pressured the market while firm oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East prompted investors to buy.

Spot gold <XAU=> rose as high as $637.50 an ounce before dipping to $630.90. It recovered to $634.50/636.00 by 0943 GMT, compared with $634.70/635.45 in New York late on Monday.

"The name of the game is to buy on the dip and take profits on the move higher," said Frederic Panizzutti, metals analyst at MKS Finance. "There is good potential on the upside but the market would remain shy," he added.

Dealers said gold was likely to face stiff resistance at $650, but any move down to about $620 was expected to attract fresh buyers and support the market.

<snip>

In industry news, sales for Dubai's gold industry dropped 30 percent in the first half of the year as gold prices soared, Tawhid Abdullah, chairman of the Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group, told Reuters.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

17. Dollar loses early gains, awaits PCE, Paulson

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2006-08-01T121559Z_01_L01906922_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-5.XML
Tue Aug 1, 2006 1:16 PM BST

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The dollar shed early gains on Tuesday and steadied near 3-week lows after positive euro zone data sank in ahead of a closely-watched U.S. inflation gauge and a speech by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

The euro was underpinned by broadly positive euro zone data including a faster-than-expected fall in the region's unemployment to a 5-year low which cemented expectations the European Central Bank would raise rates to 3.00 percent, after Thursday's meeting.

"Overall the data this morning from euroland was as or slightly better than expected. So the market's been confirmed that we'll not only get a rate hike on Thursday but that the ECB will continue to hike in the Autumn as well," said Niels From, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

By 1201 GMT, the euro was steady at $1.2765 <EUR=> after hitting a three-week high of $1.2783 in the previous session.

The dollar was steady at 114.67 yen <JPY=> having hit a three-week low of 114.17 on Monday. The euro was also steady at 146.40 yen <EURJPY=>.

From said trading had been muted as the market eyed a key U.S. inflation indicator and Paulson's first speech since starting his new job due later, as well as the ECB meeting and U.S. payrolls data later this week.

Markets are still uncertain if the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its meeting on Aug. 8, so the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price data due at 1230 GMT could be key.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

19. Dollar gains in choppy trade after in-line PCE

http://today.reuters.com/Investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2006-08-01T124938Z_01_NYJ000130_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-DOLLAR-UPDATE-6-URGENT.XML
Tue Aug 1, 2006 8:49am ET

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The dollar initially slipped then turned higher on Tuesday as traders grappled with the interest rate implications of a key measure of U.S. inflation which came exactly in line with forecasts.

The euro ticked up to $1.2775 <EUR=> from around $1.2760 just before the data were released but then fell back to $1.2735, while the dollar initially fell against the yen to 114.55 yen <JPY=> from around 114.70 yen before bouncing up to a session high of 115.05 yen.

Core consumer prices rose 0.2 percent on the month, in line with forecasts, although the annual rate ticked up a little from May, according to the personal consumption expenditures index.

Right after the release, federal funds futures priced in a 32 percent chance of a rate increase next week compared with 38 percent just before the data. But that quickly reversed and spiked up to 43 percent.

[54anickel]

20. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
Last trade 85.29 Change -0.14 (-0.16%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.44

Previous Close 85.43 High 85.58

Low 85.27 2006-08-01 08:31:56, 30 min delay


The September Dollar was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday’s decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.60. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 84.42 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends Monday’s breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.405. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 129.50 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 126.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

24. Protectionist policies may add to dollar woes

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-07-31T183634Z_01_N28437979_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-DOLLAR-PROTECTIONISM.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. senators are once again cranking up talk of tariffs on Chinese imports -- and this time it's making currency traders nervous.

In addition to stemming the stream of cheap Chinese goods that have helped keep a lid on U.S. inflation, markets worry that trade restrictions will impede the free flow of capital.

That's trouble for the dollar and the currencies of countries such as Australia and New Zealand that run large deficits and rely on capital inflows for financing.

"Protectionism has raised its ugly head again," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at The Bank of New York. That creates "quite a bit of event risk for the dollar."

Midterm elections in November make the risk more acute, as lawmakers may point to trade barriers and other measures to ease voter anxiety about the threat to American jobs from globalization.

more...

[54anickel]

38. Fed official says Poole says China's growth is good for U.S. (Strange

headline)

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060801/BUSINESS/608010347

A rising China will lift economic boats in the United States -- especially when Beijing can be persuaded to stop manipulating its currency and counterfeiting American products, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis told a legislative group meeting in Louisville yesterday.

William Poole said there will be short-term challenges, however, as a glut of cheap labor from China, India and other emerging nations depresses the wages of low-skilled U.S. workers.

Poole addressed the Southern Legislative Conference at the Marriott Louisville Downtown. The event attracted lawmakers and staffs from 16 states.

Poole said many states, especially in the South, have seen dramatic gains in exports to China, helping to create jobs.

Kentucky's exports to China have soared from $64 million in 2000 to $400 million in 2005, with chemicals, metals and machinery leading the way.

"Put simply, a wealthier China is a better market for U.S. goods and services," Poole said. "Especially for the high-tech and agricultural goods which the United States produces in abundance."

Poole said protectionist policies to defend U.S. wages would not create jobs and would deprive consumers of inexpensive Chinese products.

more...

[54anickel]

34. Quite the roller coaster ride for the buck this morning. Headed up

the next big incline now....

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 85.52 Change +0.09 (+0.11%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.44

Previous Close 85.43 High 85.58

Low 85.27 2006-08-01 10:01:44, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

37. Gold edges lower as inflation data props up dollar

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7B0FC6A8DE-6886-4D13-968D-007D2FB9E3B7%7D&keyword=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures edged lower early Tuesday, pulling most other metals with them, as the dollar rose following inflation data that reignited expectations for another U.S. interest-rate hike next week.

Gold for October delivery was down $1.90 at $638.50 an ounce. On Monday, the contract closed lower, although it ended July with a 3% gain, with metals traders showing caution about developments in the Middle East while hashing over what to expect from next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Data released Tuesday showed core U.S. consumer inflation matching an 11-year high in June, keeping pressure on the Fed to take action to cool rising prices.

snip>

But losses were capped by worry about the Middle East, where Israel continued to bombard Lebanon overnight, dampening hopes for a cease-fire. The violence has created demand for gold as a safe-haven instrument.

Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a minister in the Israeli cabinet, said the country needs 10 days to two weeks to drive Hezbollah from its border. The BBC reported fierce fighting on the ground, with the Israeli air force continuing to bomb targets across Lebanon despite its pledge to suspend air strikes for 48-hours following a bomb attack on Sunday that killed many civilians.

snip>

On the supply side, gold inventories were unchanged at 8.09 million troy ounces as of late Monday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell by 838,801 troy ounces to 99 million. Copper supplies were unchanged at 6,756 short tons.

[Ghost Dog]

44. Gold edges higher as traders eye Mideast, Fed

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0FC6A8DE%2D6886%2D4D13%2D968D%2D007D2FB9E3B7%7D&siteid=bigcharts&dist=news
Last Update: 10:56 AM ET Aug 1, 2006

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures edged higher Tuesday, reversing early losses as traders continued to fret about the violence in the Middle East and await next week's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.

Gold for October delivery was up $2.10 at $642.50 an ounce, off an early low of $636.20.

"Gold is marking time until the Fed meets, or until diplomats come up with a compromise that will stop the bullets from flying in the Middle East," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

<snip>

Traders are also awaiting Iran's official response to the package of incentives Western governments are offering Tehran in an effort to dissuade it from enriching uranium.

"To add just a bit more nerves to the mix, the two Koreas exchanged gunfire along their common border overnight," said Nadler. "A month ago, this unsettling brew of bad news would have witnessed a 2% or 3% rally in metals."

Technical factors were also at play, according to Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter. In recent sessions, investors with short positions have moved into the market after the London fixing and physical buying of gold in Europe has stopped.

"They couldn't push the contract lower, so now they're just covering positions," he said. The short squeeze "offers a lot of opportunities to move higher, especially if we can take out the $640 spot level," he said.

<snip>

Other metals were also higher with silver up 12 cents at $11.49 an ounce. Platinum added $6.30 to $1,247.90 an ounce, palladium rose $2.35 to $319.50 an ounce and copper added 1 cent to $3.58 a pound.

/more...

[54anickel]

46. A Pause For The Cause...Today's Phenning

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=865

snip>

Well... I've changed my mind about the Fed's August meeting... As I told Chris last week, and he so neatly inserted it into the Pfennig... As Lord Keynes famously quipped, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" And the facts are quickly changing... The Fed Heads have been out laying the ground work for a pause... Let's listen in on St. Louis Fed Head Poole... "I'm still undecided on the Fed's August rate decision, putting the chances of an August rate hike at 50-50." And how about San Francisco's Fed Head Yellen..."A gradual approach is likely to be better," Yellen said in a speech yesterday. "If we kept automatically raising rates until we saw inflation start to respond, we most likely would have gone too far." "We have more data to receive and more analysis to do," Yellen said, "and I will be going into the meeting eager to learn what my colleagues think and help them form a judgment."

The thing to keep in mind here is that a "pause" is not an "end"... At least not for a couple of months anyway... There's always a chance the Fed Heads come back to hike one more time... However, currency traders are champing at the bit and quite restless waiting for this Fed announcement... That's what's holding the euro back right now, as the traders really want to make certain they hear the Fed correctly.

The European Central Bank will meet this Thursday... And their rate hike has been made quite transparent by ECB President Trichet... So... The rate increase is probably already priced into the euro.... Except... If the ECB goes 50 BPS... The euro would really gain vs. the dollar... And on the other side of the coin, if Trichet doesn't mention the vigilant word or sound like these rate hikes will continue, the euro would get spanked!

I don't think the latter will happen as I still see the ECB moving rates to 3.50% by year-end, which should firmly support the euro...

snip>

There was a report issued this last weekend from the IMF in which they very politely mention that the dollar is overvalued anywhere from 15-35% on a Trade Weighted basis... This is a switch.. In that, all we ever hear about is the fact that the Chinese renminbi is too weak.... I found it really interesting that the IMF, which you might recall was given the con on the currencies by G-7 back in April, preferred to phrase it as the dollar being overvalued! We all know that it is overvalued, but now we have the IMF on our side!

more...

[54anickel]

22. Words Speak as Loud as Numbers for Bernanke's Fed

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_currier&sid=aQ1RAEv7.hvw

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Most people who follow the Federal Reserve may be fixated right now on what the central bank will do next week about interest rates.

A few, including this mutual-fund columnist, are already looking ahead to the October meeting.

According to a recent press release, the Oct. 24-25 confab of the Federal Open Market Committee ``will be expanded to two days to allow time for discussion of communications issues.''

A worthy topic -- indeed, one of the stickiest subjects Fed policy makers have wrestled with in recent years. The conversation will be the latest in a long series of meetings, speeches and working groups relating to ``transparency,'' or the promoting of a better understanding in the securities markets, and among the general public, of what the Fed is up to.

When he took over from Alan Greenspan early this year as the Fed's chairman, Ben Bernanke declared increasing transparency to be one of his prime goals. In the next few months, he seemed to struggle with that mission, drawing protests that he and his colleagues were talking so much they were confusing everybody.

More recently, Bernanke's statements and those of the FOMC have drawn better reviews from the markets, including a couple of 200-point jumps in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the past several weeks.

Sending Messages

more...

[54anickel]

23. Depends on the Definition of 'Pause'

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10300676.html

The Federal Reserve had one last chance Monday to correct the markets' belief that it will not raise the fed funds rate on Aug. 8. But when St. Louis Fed President William Poole and San Francisco Janet Yellen came to the podium, they chose to let sleeping dogs lie.

In separate speeches, the Fed Presidents commented on the future of monetary policy, but neither elicited much response from the financial markets. Traders were sanguine about warnings that inflation is undesirable, and investors continue to read "pause" as "full-stop."

"The market hears 'pause' and they think 'over'," says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research. "I'm hearing from Fed officials that they say pause and mean pause."

If the market read pause as pause, they would not react as they have to recent economic data and Fedspeak, Bianco says. The markets "are locked into the growth story," and ignoring the inflation tale, he says. If the Fed were to pause and begin hiking rates again, the markets would likely be knocked on their heels.

more...

[54anickel]

25. 9:57 opening in the red

Dow 11,137.57 -48.11 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,069.34 -22.13 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,270.24 -6.42 (-0.50%)
10-yr Bond 5.002 +0.014 (+0.28%)
30-yr Bond 5.087 +0.017 (+0.34%)
NYSE Volume 275,133,000
Nasdaq Volume 196,223,000

09:40 am : Stocks open on a downbeat note as this morning's steady inflation data so far are not providing enough evidence that the Fed will end their two-year campaign of rate hikes one week from today. Earlier, the Commerce Dept. showed that the core-PCE deflator, which was released with in-line personal income and spending data, rose 0.2% in June. Even though that figure also matched expectations and was the third straight increase of that magnitude, the absence of an uptrend in inflation still left the year-over-year increase at 2.4% -- the largest such increase since a 2.5% rise in April 1995, leaving investors wondering just how patient policy makers will be next Tuesday since it takes time for the previous rates hikes to impact the data. DJ30 -43.70 NASDAQ -18.28 SP500 -5.63 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 74 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.8. Negative bias persists in pre-market trading as futures trade continues to deteriorate heading into the opening bell. Despite another day of earnings reports underscoring a surprisingly good quarter, the market's focus shifting from earnings to economic data coupled with rising oil prices to start off what is historically the worst month for stocks, according to Stock Traders Almanac, leaves investors little incentive to get back on the buying track after such a strong performance last week.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0. Futures indications completely reverse course and now signal a sharply lower open for stocks after further analysis of the core-PCE index questions the possibility of a pause at next Tuesday's FOMC meeting. Evidently investors' initial response to an in-line reading was not good enough, since the Fed's key inflation measure rising at its fastest pace in more than a decade keeps the pressure on policy makers to keep tightening. To wit, fed funds futures are now pricing in a 43% chance of another rate hike on August 8, up from 35% before the data, as traders now set their sites on the prices paid component, another inflation indicator, in the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Index. The 10-yr note is down 6 ticks to yield 5.00%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Personal income and spending for June were up 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in line with expectations. The more closely watched core-PCE deflator, meanwhile, was up 0.2% for a third straight month, in line with expectations. While that reading puts the year-over-year rate at 2.4%, which is above the Fed's forecasted range, it has so far been viewed favorably by the market since it wasn't stronger than expected. Futures indications have improved slightly following the report and are now signaling a mixed open for equities. Bonds have also improved a bit, with the yield on the 10-yr note falling 1 basis point to 4.98%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Futures versus fair value currently suggest a lower start for stocks as investors show some reserve ahead of some key economic data. Most notably will be the upcoming release of the Personal Income & Spending report at 8:30 ET, with special emphasis being placed on the core-PCE index -- the Fed's favored inflation measure -- and the impact it could have on the outlook for Fed policy, especially with the next FOMC meeting one week from today. While a core PCE reading of 0.1% would be comforting for the equity market, stocks may get hit if it comes in at a stronger than expected 0.3%.

[54anickel]

30. 10:16 and redder on reports

Dow 11,108.52 -77.16 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,058.42 -33.05 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,266.18 -10.48 (-0.82%)
10-yr Bond 4.998 +0.01 (+0.20%)
30-yr Bond 5.079 +0.009 (+0.18%)
NYSE Volume 452,033,000
Nasdaq Volume 324,357,000

10:00 am : Indices are still trading in negative territory as buyers remain on the sidelines, waiting for this morning's other key report (ISM Index), which will be out momentarily, to perhaps shed some more positive light on a possible pause by the Fed on August 8th. Meanwhile, all 10 economic sectors are under pressure, paced by a 0.9% decline in Technology. Industrials is also losing ground, as continued weakness in Transportation, this time on the heels of an Q2 earnings shortfall from Expeditors International (EXPD 41.16 -4.31), overshadows a 38% year/year rise in Q2 profits at RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD 31.07 +1.88). Even Energy, despite Valero Energy (VLO 67.85 +0.42) more than doubling Q2 net income and raising its Q3 EPS outlook, is in the red. DJ30 -45.95 NASDAQ -22.32 SP500 -6.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1851/581/218 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1961/737/192 mln

[54anickel]

31. China Bank Fraud Fails to Damp Investor Frenzy for Share Sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aulORKuIY26M&refer=exclusive_to_bloomberg

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Managers at Bank of China Ltd., the country's second-largest lender, spent a decade pulling off the biggest bank heist in Chinese history. The men at a branch in southern China embezzled $485 million before using false identities to flee to the U.S., where they were arrested in 2004, U.S. prosecutors say.

The former bankers, Xu Chaofan and Xu Guojun, are coming to trial for fraud and racketeering in federal court in Las Vegas following the arrest of top executives in China last year. Zhang Enzhao, former chief executive officer of No. 4 lender China Construction Bank, was nabbed on suspicion of bribe taking. And Liu Jinbao, former CEO of a Bank of China subsidiary, was handed a suspended death sentence for embezzlement.

The corruption in China's banks hasn't scared off investors who are enthralled by an economy that grew by 10.9 percent in the first half of 2006. They've poured about $37 billion into Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the biggest lender, through direct investments and stock purchases in the past 15 months, according to Bloomberg data.

``Western investors want to be at the party, but there's a real risk,'' says Donald Straszheim, former chief economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. who now leads China activities as vice chairman at Roth Capital Partners LLC, an investment bank in Newport Beach, California. ``They don't fully comprehend what they're buying into. They're buying into a mess, a system where loans are doled out with little regard for risk and reward, with a regulatory structure that doesn't look anything like what they're used to.''

Hmmmm, how's that last part any different than Freddie, Fannie or hedge funds?


more...

[PATRICK]

32. The difference here

is that the embezzlers won't be shot as they certainly would be in China. Here, they may eventually get out to live off their squirreled away accounts or as consultants to US firms.

[54anickel]

36. They'll become highly sought after experts if they can beat the rap.

[54anickel]

35. Dr M Tells World To Use Dollar Weapon To Pressure Washington

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=211207

LANGKAWI, July 29 (Bernama) -- Former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad Saturday urged countries in the world to stop using the US dollar in their international trade in order to pressure Washington to end its support for Israel's savage attack on Lebanon.

He said the oppression and cruelty of Israel against the Lebanese and Palestinians would not end so long as the United States continued to support and give aid to the Jewish regime.

"Switching out of the US dollar to using other currencies such as the euro and yen or gold will somewhat weaken the US and put pressure on it," he told reporters after visiting several development projects here.

He was asked to comment on the fierce land, sea and air bombardment of Lebanon in the past few weeks which had destroyed much of southern Lebanon and killed more than 600 Lebanese.

snip>

Even the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) did not have the courage to take on the US because its members were divided in their stand, with some supporting the US while others were opposed.

"We cannot hope for OIC to do anything. Only when the Western world acts, then the OIC might follow suit," he said.

[54anickel]

40. 11:11 and stuck in a rut

Dow 11,108.52 -77.16 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,063.14 -28.33 (-1.35%)
S&P 500 1,267.65 -9.01 (-0.71%)
10-yr Bond 4.998 +0.01 (+0.20%)
30-yr Bond 5.081 +0.011 (+0.22%)
NYSE Volume 816,290,000
Nasdaq Volume 583,076,000

11:00 am : More of the same for the averages as the Nasdaq (-1.4%) continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the downside. Aside from weakness in Semiconductors (-1.9%), Networking (-1.8%) and Software (-1.3%) weighing heavily on the primarily tech-heavy Composite, losses in Restaurants (e.g. SBUX --3.7%), Food Retail (e.g. WFMI -9.8%), Retail (e.g. COST -2.1%, SPLS -1.3%), Transports (e.g. EXPD -10.8%, CHRW -3.7%), Biotech (e.g. BIIB -1.5%, GILD -1.6%) and Human Resources (MNST -2.8%) are also taking a toll on the index. Of the only nine Nasdaq 100 components trading higher, IAC/InterActive (IACI 24.69 +0.98) is pacing the way with a 4.0% surge amid encouraging revenue growth across three of its biggest Web properties. DJ30 -81.21 NASDAQ -30.87 SP500 -9.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2050/672/530 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2218/749/490 mln

10:30 am : Equities extend their reach to the downside as the latest economic data merely exacerbate early nervousness. At the top of the hour, the ISM index unexpectedly rose to 54.7% in July (consensus 53.5%) from 53.8% in June. While levels in the low 50 range are consistent with the widespread economic slowdown apparent in other sectors as well, and is consistent with the view that a soft landing is developing nicely for the economy, the prices paid component jumping from 76.5% to 78.5% -- the highest level this year, appears to be adding to renewed concerns on the inflation front. DJ30 -71.12 NASDAQ -30.42 SP500 -9.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2061/552/406 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2190/679/362 mln

[JNelson6563]

42. 11:56 and bloody on all fronts

Dow 11,108.84 -76.84 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,063.44 -28.03 (1.34%)
S&P 500 1,268.40 -8.26 (0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.994% +0.006

Money leaving markets & Treasuries. Ouch!

Julie

[54anickel]

45. Hi Julie! Good to "see" ya. Say, howz-bout that gold though?

(numbers are a bit old compared to the chart right now)

Gold edges higher as traders eye Mideast, Fed

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0FC6A8DE%2D6886%2D4D13%2D968D%2D007D2FB9E3B7%7D&siteid=bigcharts&dist=news

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures edged higher Tuesday, reversing early losses as traders continued to fret about the violence in the Middle East and await next week's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.

Gold for October delivery was up $2.10 at $642.50 an ounce, off an early low of $636.20.
"Gold is marking time until the Fed meets, or until diplomats come up with a compromise that will stop the bullets from flying in the Middle East," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

Israel continued to bombard Lebanon overnight, damping hopes for a cease-fire and adding to gold's attraction as a safe-haven investment.

snip>

Traders are also awaiting Iran's official response to the package of incentives Western governments are offering Tehran in an effort to dissuade it from enriching uranium.

"To add just a bit more nerves to the mix, the two Koreas exchanged gunfire along their common border overnight," said Nadler. "A month ago, this unsettling brew of bad news would have witnessed a 2% or 3% rally in metals."

more...short squeeze?

[JNelson6563]

51. Shiny, pretty gold.

Still worth sittin' on I'd say. Watch for signs of increasing panic for guidance. ;-)

Julie

[ozone_man]

52. It's just a rock.

:evilgrin:

Wake me when it gets to $450.

[54anickel]

47. 12:56 watchin' red paint dry on so-so volumes

Dow 11,108.28 -77.40 (-0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,062.36 -29.12 (-1.39%)
S&P 500 1,268.73 -7.93 (-0.62%)
10-yr Bond 4.987 -0.001 (-0.02%)
30-yr Bond 5.074 +0.004 (+0.08%)
NYSE Volume 1,320,668,000
Nasdaq Volume 887,777,000

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as the afternoon session gets underway. Market breadth continues to favor declining issues at both the NYSE and Nasdaq, as they hold more than a 2-to-1 edge over advancers. On a positive note, though, limited participation is lending less conviction behind the broad-based selling efforts, especially since volume is typically above average on the first trading day of the month in anticipation of new fund inflows. DJ30 -71.88 NASDAQ -27.78 SP500 -7.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2090/786/812 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2123/999/794 mln

12:00 pm : Market continues to languish near session lows midday as heightened inflation concerns and rising oil prices kick off the first day of August on a sour note.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that the core-PCE deflator, which was released with in-line personal income and spending data, rose 0.2% in June. That matched also expectations and was the third straight increase of that magnitude, reflective of a steadying trend and consistent with the Fed's view that inflation will ease in 2007. Be that as it may, the year-over-year increase now at 2.4% -- the largest such increase since a 2.5% rise in April 1995 and further above the Fed's comfort zone of 1.75-2.00%, has left investors wondering just how patient policy makers will be next Tuesday since it takes time for the previous rates hikes to impact the data.

Adding insult to injury, investors didn't get any relief on the inflation front after the prices paid component in the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Index jumped from 76.5% to 78.5% -- the highest level this year, questioning just how soft a landing the economy can actually expect after two years of rate hikes.

he reality that August has been the worst month for stocks over the last 15 years, according to Stock Traders Almanac, is also lending to the lack of enthusiasm for owning equities amid renewed uncertainty with regard to Fed policy.

Of the eight economic sectors trading lower, Technology is turning in the worst performance as renewed fears that the Fed may go too far with its tightening weighs on everything from semiconductors to software. Consumer Discretionary and Telecom are also off more than 1.0% while the absence of notable leadership from Financials and Industrials is also keeping buyers on the sidelines.

Utilities, though, is holding onto respectable gains as better than expected earnings from FirstEnergy (FE 56.28 +0.28) and Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG 68.90 +1.47), as well as expectations that a nationwide heat wave will result in higher electric bills, add to the sector's attraction as a defensive play in a down market. Energy has also inched into positive territory as oil prices hit session highs (+1.3%) and are back above $75 per barrel. DJ30 -79.80 DJTA -2.1% DJUA +0.5% NASDAQ -28.01 NQ100 -1.6% R2K -1.5% SOX -2.0% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -8.43 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2115/742/738 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2165/919/704 mln

11:30 am : Not much has changed since the last update as selling remains widespread most areas. Utilities, however, has recently inched into positive territory, fueled by better than expected earnings from FirstEnergy (FE 56.35 +0.35) and Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG 69.18 +1.75) as well as some relief on the commodities front, as profit-taking in natural gas futures (-2.2%) chips away at yesterday's 14% surge. As one of the least influential sectors, though, not even a 0.7% gain in the S&P Utilities sector has had much of an impact on the broader market.DJ30 -75.08 DJUA +0.7% NASDAQ -29.82 SP500 -8.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2112/684/654 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2237/811/600 mln

11:00 am : More of the same...

[54anickel]

48. 1:39 and falling through support - getting defensive

Dow 11,092.19 -93.49 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,058.18 -33.29 (-1.59%)
S&P 500 1,267.43 -9.23 (-0.72%)
10-yr Bond 4.99 +0.002 (+0.04%)
30-yr Bond 5.076 +0.006 (+0.12%)
NYSE Volume 1,504,634,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,007,268,000

1:30 pm : A renewed wave of selling interest within the last 15 minutes pushes the indices to fresh afternoon lows. Contributing to the recent pullback have been the indices' inabilities to find support near key technical levels of 11,105, 1268 and 2060 on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. The only four Dow components now clinging to gains (e.g. JNJ, MO, MRK, and PFE) are attracting investors largely on their defensive characteristics. DJ30 -94.45 NASDAQ -33.14 SP500 -9.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2109/804/972 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2065/1114/948 mln

1:00 pm : Major averages remain in a relatively tight trading range but sellers remain in complete control of the action. Technology now off as much as 1.6% and extending its year-to-date decline remains the biggest thorn in the market's side while ongoing valuation concerns throughout the transportation group has pushed the influential Industrials sector into negative territory for the year. DJ30 -75.88 NASDAQ -29.20 SP500 -8.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2079/806/898 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2091/1049/874 mln

[54anickel]

49. Why options backdating is a big deal

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/01/magazines/fortune/lashinsky.fortune/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

(Fortune) -- For the past several weeks I've been asking experts (to be precise: lawyers) if they think the options backdating scandal is a big deal with major ramifications, a medium-sized brouhaha that will fade after the egregious abusers have been punished, or a tempest in a teapot we'll have forgotten by Christmas.

Wishful thinking aside, almost nobody believes it's Door No. 3, a scandal-of-the-day wiped out by the next news cycle. The question on backdating then remains: pervasive rot in the system or technical malfunction that needs to be cleared up?

My conclusion is the former. So first let's dispense with the pooh-poohers, those who'd minimize the importance of this issue. And they are legion. Options backdating is something of a misnomer, as I've explained in this brief article in Fortune.

At its worst, the practice is called backdating because an executive manages to move the date of a stock option back in time, presumably to when the stock price was lower. Stock options grant the recipient the right to buy shares at the stated price after a certain period of time has gone by. If the market price is higher than the so-called strike price, the employee makes money. Find a way to lower the price of the grant - by moving back the grant date during a rising market, for example - and the option is worth even more.

The scandal, however, involves far more shenanigans, and deeper nuances, than mere backdating. Forward-dating in the event of good news, holding open a grant to see where the stock goes and systematically picking dates that represent a low point in the stock are all variations of how the game is played. Some of the practices could be outright fraud. Some are perfectly legitimate. Sometimes it's just not clear.

more...

[54anickel]

50. What are emerging nations telling us about the market?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA572A2E-F965-4ED2-9DA2-7606BE601C03%7D

VANCOUVER (MarketWatch) -- Between May 2005 and 2006, the Zambian kwacha jumped 37% in value against the U.S. dollar. With a main claim to fame as the sixth largest exporter of fresh vegetables to Europe, why should what happens in a small African country concern you?

It indicates the zeal with which global investors (mostly hedge funds) have thrown money into emerging high-yield economies in a strategy called the carry trade. Borrowing cheap money from Japan at rates as low as 0.25%, investors purchased bonds in high-yield nations such as Zambia, Iceland and New Zealand where interest rates approached high single to low double digits. All was great as long as there were no currency collapses.

Unfortunately for these investors, that is exactly what started to happen. The Turkish lira was the worst of all, dropping more than 20% in the six weeks ending June 22. Its stock market lost more than 25%. Halfway around the world, the Icelandic krona fell more than 30% between November 2005 and June 22, 2006. Panicked global investors quickly began getting out of harm's way, and the collapse was under way.

snip>

With just one exception (2002), periods of low risk-premiums (investor complacency high) preceded a financial crisis and/or bear market. On May 1, 2006, the index hit an all-time low of 172 basis points -- investors were willing to buy emerging market bonds for a yield premium of just 1.72% more than comparable U.S. Treasuries, making this the greatest level of investor complacency since the index's inception more than 15 years ago. It is no coincidence that the emerging market meltdown started just 11 days later.

Is the most recent meltdown trying to tell us something? The EMBI says investor complacency is at all-time highs. As a financial indicator, it's not alone. Two-year Treasury bond yields now sit above 10-year yields in an inverted yield curve. Between 1976 and 2000 there were five such inversions, and each time a bear stock market followed within an average of 12 months.

more...

[JNelson6563]

53. 3:09 Update

Dow 11,093.55 -92.13 (0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,054.46 -37.01 (1.77%)
S&P 500 1,267.31 -9.35 (0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 4.983% -0.005

Hmmmm. If the faeries are going to show up it needs to be soon.

Julie

[54anickel]

54. Amazingly, they have clawed their way back up to those key technical

levels mentioned in the 1:30 blather. Just in the nick of time.

key technical levels of 11,105, 1268 and 2060 on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.

Lookie here:

Dow 11,125.73 -59.95 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,061.99 -29.48 (-1.41%)
S&P 500 1,270.91 -5.75 (-0.45%)
10-yr Bond 4.983 -0.005 (-0.10%)
30-yr Bond 5.069 -0.001 (-0.02%)
NYSE Volume 2,454,959,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,621,172,000

[JNelson6563]

57. It's like a miracle!

Alleluia! :toast:

[stop the bleeding]

55. well that was fun

Played Calls again today on Energy and Copper and did very well, had called it a day until that run up happened from 3:27 - 3:50 - that was too irresistible for me to pass by.
Cheers got to wonder what the TS Chris will do to Oil overnight:toast:

[54anickel]

56. The official closing for the day with colors and blather

Dow 11,125.73 -59.95 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,061.99 -29.48 (-1.41%)
S&P 500 1,270.92 -5.74 (-0.45%)
10-yr Bond 4.983 -0.005 (-0.10%)
30-yr Bond 5.069 -0.001 (-0.02%)
NYSE Volume 2,461,496,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,664,334,000

4:20 pm : Not all that surprising, as the first trading of August has resulted in declines for the Dow in 13 of the last 20 years, stocks closed lower across the board, as heightened inflation fears provided an excuse to question the possibility of a pause at the next FOMC meeting one week from today. According to Stock Traders Almanac, August has been the worst month for stocks over the last 15 years.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that the core-PCE deflator, an indicator of inflation tied to spending patterns, rose 0.2% in June. That matched expectations and was the third straight increase of that magnitude, reflective of a steadying trend and consistent with the Fed's view that inflation will ease in 2007. Be that as it may, the year-over-year increase now at 2.4% -- the largest such increase since a 2.5% rise in April 1995 and further above the Fed's comfort zone of 1.75-2.00%, left investors wondering just how patient policy makers will be next Tuesday since it takes time for the previous rates hikes to impact the data.

Participants also didn't get much relief on the inflation front after the prices paid component in the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Index jumped from 76.5% to 78.5% -- the highest level this year, questioning just how soft a landing the economy can actually expect after two years of rate hikes.

With eight of the 10 worst performing S&P 500 constituents in July among the 85 components that make up Technology, the struggling sector didn't waste any time maintaining its underperformance on the first trading of August as renewed fears that the Fed may go too far with its tightening weighed on everything from semiconductors to software. Aside from discouraging economic data, mixed earnings reports reminded investors that analysts' estimates for the second half of the year must come down since double-digit profit growth cannot continue in the face of an economic slowdown. Most notably was Dow component Verizon (VZ 33.35 -0.47), which beat expectations by two cents but posted Q2 revenues that fell short of estimates.

Consumer Discretionary was another influential leader to the downside. Disappointing auto sales figures gave investors little to cheer about. General Motors (GM 31.35 -0.88) reported a 19.5% drop in July sales while rival Ford Motor (F 6.58 -0.09) reported a larger than expected 34% decline in total vehicle sales. Starbucks (SBUX 32.96 -1.27) selling off ahead of its earnings report and Eastman Kodak (EK 19.20 -3.05) hitting its worst levels in more than 20 years after posting a seventh straight quarterly loss also took a toll on a sector also reeling from rising oil prices and today's consumer spending figure recording its smallest gain (0.4%) this year.

Industrials was also under pressure, as continued weakness in Transportation, this time on the heels of a Q2 earnings shortfall from Expeditors International (EXPD 40.56 -4.91), which overshadowed a 38% year/year rise in Q2 profits at RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD 30.97 +1.78).

Utilities, however, posted a noticeable gain after FirstEnergy (FE 57.07 +1.07) beat forecasts and raised its full-year profit outlook and Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG 69.41 +1.98) swung to a profit in Q2. Natural gas futures giving back more than half of Monday's 14% surge amid eased concerns about Tropical Storm Chris in the Caribbean provided additional sector support since the commodity is used by utilities to generate electricity. BTK -1.5% DJ30 -59.95 DJTA -2.0% DJUA +1.1% DOT -1.2% NASDAQ -29.48 NQ100 -1.6% R2K -1.5% SOX -2.0% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -5.74 XOI +0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2146/861/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1995/1263/1.66 bln

3:30 pm : Selling remains the name of the game going into the close. Photo Products (-13.3%) continues to turn in the worst performance as Eastman Kodak (EK 19.34 -2.91) hits its worst levels in more than 20 years after posting a seventh straight quarterly loss. Steel (-3.4%), one of the best performers in Q2 (+8.3%) ranks second among today's biggest laggards as investors consolidate gains while Trucking (-2.9%) and Internet Retail (-2.8%) -- two of the worst performers in July are shaping up to be two of this month's biggest disappointments only one trading day into the month of August. DJ30 -92.77 NASDAQ -36.33 SP500 -9.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2235/758/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2178/1063/1.39 bln

3:00 pm : Indices are still on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative. Technology continues to pace the way lower among the nine sectors posting losses with a 1.8% decline while only one sector remains in the green. With natural gas futures recently closing down 7.7%, giving back more than half of yesterday's 14% surge amid eased concerns about Tropical Storm Chris in the Caribbean, the Utilities sector is now trading at session highs but still struggling to offer much in the way of any leadership. DJ30 -91.45 NASDAQ -35.82 SP500 -9.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2207/769/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2155/1067/1.26 bln

2:30 pm : Indices retrace previous lows as disappointing auto sales figures give investors little to cheer about. General Motors (GM 31.42 -0.81) reported a 19.5% drop in July sales, versus an expected 21% decline, while rival Ford Motor (F 6.56 -0.11) reported a larger than expected 34% decline in total vehicle sales and Chrysler Group (DCX 50.71 -0.94) said total July sales plunged 37%. It is worth noting, though, that year/year comparisons were difficult due to aggressive employee-incentive programs in 2005 that resulted in near-record auto sales for all three. DJ30 -91.41 NASDAQ -35.42 SP500 -9.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2163/792/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2104/1101/1.15 bln

2:00 pm : Stocks bounce off their worst levels but buyers remain a reluctant bunch. One of the few areas catching a bid has been gold futures, which recently closed up 1.9% at $659 an ounce (+$12.20) on the COMEX; however, the commodity's attraction as an inflation hedge, alongside gains across the energy complex, merely speaks to the underlying concerns that have weighed on sentiment all day. DJ30 -71.80 NASDAQ -31.33 SP500 -7.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2145/777/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2183/1021/1.03 bln

Have a good evening :hi: