Atlantic Tropical Storm 3 Forms In Carribean - Heads For Bahamas

[althecat]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W_sm2+gif/031116W_sm.gif

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/





First Official HURRICANE WARNING CENTER Warning
ttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/010253.shtml

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[soothsayer]

1. Hey, at least it's a slower season than predicted, so far!

[outofbounds]

2. Lets hope its stays that way.

It however is just now getting to the heart of the season. The area I live in hasn't taken a direct hit in about 40 years, but it is an area that holds 5 of the 25 deadliest storms on record. we get the remnants of most of the hurricanes that hit Florida and Alabama and the outer edges of those that hit N & S Carolina. I'm not complaining though.

[maxrandb]

3. Slow so far

but things can turn from good to bad rather quickly. Those along the coast have to be vigilant. It's not like the current heat wave and lack of rain hasn't made the ocean waters about 88 degrees now.

The potential for another devastating hurricane season are there.

[Ragin_mad]

5. Nope, the water is not that warm there

more in the 84-85 degree range.

[gasperc]

10. let's hope it stays out of the Gulf

[leftyladyfrommo]

4. Whoa Nellie!

I will take our tornadoes anyday over your hurricanes.

Everybody keep your fingers crossed.

[RebelOne]

6. No way, I'd rather have a hurricane than a tornado.

At least, with a hurricane you have time to prepare. Tornadoes give no warning.

[leftyladyfrommo]

7. No, no, no - the chance of being hit by a tornado is so slim

I have lived her over 30 years and I have never even seen one.

And we have really good weather coverage when dangerous storms are around - all the regular channels go to non-stop weather reporting and follow the storms on radar. And most of us have weather radios hooked up to NOAA that blast yo out of bed if the storms come thru in the night.

And we have sirens.

It really doesn't amount to much. It is just that the news loves to cover tornadoes and they always put out these horrible pictures.

But a hurrican doing 125 mph here would completely destroy everything - our houses aren't built to withstand that kind of wind and rain.

[Bridget Burke]

12. Tornadoes often accompany hurricanes...

Several hit Galveston when Hurricane Carla came ashore--back in 1961.

The Ursuline Convent that had sheltered many during the Great Storm of 1900 was destroyed.

[alfredo]

13. tornadoes do their dirty work and move on. Hurricanes are like

unwanted guests. They hang around for ever.

[hedgehog]

8. I was thinking last night that August 1 was going to be the start

The next three months until Election Day are going to be a wild ride. The hurricane(s) to come are just part of it.

[Delphinus]

11. What else is part of the mix?

If you don't mind sharing.

[hedgehog]

15. I figure the hurricanes to come are one trigger- obviously

the country is not prepared to respond. It will get even more disastrous if a hurricane travels up the East Coast. New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts have already had bad floods. Good luck calling out the National Guard to help, they're already strained to the breaking point.

Iraq is going so bad so quickly that we'll be lucky to get to the election without some major loss of American life. I know that Iraqis are dying every day, but they don't really seem to register with most people. Consider how many Native Americans were killed in the 19th Century and the fact that the slaughter everyone remembers is Little Big Horn.


The heat is only going to build through the next month. How secure is your power grid?

The economy? How about rising gas prices, falling housing markets, the effect of drought and excess heat...

Come September the media will wake up and notice that an election is coming on. Expect some really dirty fighting if the Republicans think they're going down.

Wild card: Al-Quadia decides to grab the spot light from Hezbolla or Hamas or some other outfit decides to make its presence known.

All in all, the next few months are going to be strange.

[Delphinus]

16. Hi hedgehog,

Thank you for pointing everything out so clearly. Add into the mix the seniors finding out how screwed they are by that "donut hole" and we've got just about every segment of the population ready to fight.

I said on another post yesterday in the Environment/Energy forum that we've lived in darkness for too long and I hope the "world" awakens. If what you talk about doesn't do it, I don't know what will.

[hedgehog]

21. I knew I left something out!

Maybe I'm just waiting for the heat to break and am projecting, but we're in for more than one kind of storm if you ask me!

[gasperc]

9. Damn, I hope it doesn't reenter the Gulf

I hope it stays relatively weak over Cuba and hopefully going over Cuba it'll completely break it up

[Up2Late]

14. TS Chris isn't going amount to much, I think, but Check out this other...

...area, just East of the Bahamas! If you ever wanted to see a Hurricane form from birth till death, check out the circulation on this Atlantic Water Vapor satellite view! I predict a Cat 1 Hurricane by tomorrow or Thursday:

<http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html>

<http://www.storm2k.org/sats.php?loc=trop&sat=wv&h=5>

<http://www.storm2k.org/wx/>

[GoddessOfGuinness]

19. I thought the same thing when I looked at the weather map.

But so far they aren't even calling it a depression...

[Up2Late]

22. It looks Sub-Tropical right now...

...but you never know.:shrug:

[althecat]

27. Wow.. that is very cool Up2late....

[shawmut]

17. Chris strengthens, forecasted to become a hurricane

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2130 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 61.1W AT 01/2130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 61.1W AT 01/2130Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 60.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml






http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[tinfoilinfor2005]

18. Well that track goes right through my living room.

Hoping they would leave the Keys alone this year, but no dice. :(

[hedgehog]

20. How random are the tracks in a given year?

Would one storm tend to follow another's track or are they pretty much random depending on conditions day by day? In other words, is the fact that the last tropical storm tracked up the East Coast a predictor of things to come?

[Up2Late]

24. It mostly depends on the winds, a few years ago, we had several...

... follow one after the other, here are a few examples:

1996

<http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/index.html>

1998


<http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/index.html>

2004


<http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/index.html>

[jab105]

23. Don't hit FL dammit, I got a triathlon this weekend in...

the Atlantic Ocean...I'll get seasick!

[HeeBGBz]

25. I'm keeping a close watch on this one

Once it hits the gulf it's gonna blow up in size. The waters are too warm in the gulf. Maybe it will dissipate before it gets there. Otherwise, look out.



Heres a Chris thread in the Weather group.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=328x581

[althecat]

26. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Eugene]

28. Reuters: Chris may become hurricane

Chris may become hurricane
Wed Aug 2, 2006 5:11am ET

MIAMI (Reuters) - The third tropical storm of the Atlantic season skirted
the Caribbean's northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday and could become
the year's first hurricane headed for the Gulf of Mexico later this week,
U.S. forecasters said.

At 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT), tropical storm warnings remained up for some
of the small northeastern Caribbean islands and the U.S. territory of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as Tropical Storm Chris' maximum
sustained winds remained near 60 miles per hour (97 kph), the U.S. National
Hurricane Center said.

The Miami-based hurricane center said Chris was expected to strengthen and
could become a hurricane later on Wednesday as it traveled on a path that could
take it into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could damage U.S. oil and gas
facilities.

Chris was 65 miles northeast of St. Martin and moving west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 kph). On that track, forecasters said, Chris' center would be north of the
northernmost Leeward Islands later on Wednesday morning and remain north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

-snip-

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2006-08-02T091040Z_01_N0175121_RTRUKOC_0_US-WEATHER-CHRIS.xml

[HeeBGBz]

29. It may reach hurricane status today

Looks like it will go into the gulf. Then we're screwed.

[Up2Late]

30. All of our thoughts a prayers are with you HeeBGBz...

Hopefully it won't get too big.

[althecat]

31. Florida or Gulf? Could easily be both...

Could easily be both... several hurricanes lately have crossed Florida intact lately. In fact... probably most of em.

[althecat]

32. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

000
WTNT43 KNHC 022038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
CHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
WERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.
THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER
10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED.
FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N
MI FROM THE CENTER. ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN
WSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM. ALL OF
THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND
INTENSIFICATION RESUME. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE
5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT
LEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR
THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY
NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE. THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS
COULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE
IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/9. BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
CHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
AND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL
LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.9N 64.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.4N 65.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 67.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 69.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.7N 71.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH