Will Mexico Soon Be Tapped Out?

[bemildred]

MEXICO CITY — Output at Mexico's most important oil field has fallen steeply this year, raising fears that wells there that generate 60% of the country's petroleum are in the throes of a major decline.

Production at Cantarell, the world's second-largest oil complex, in the shallow gulf waters off the shore of Mexico's southern Campeche state, averaged just over 1.8 million barrels a day in May, according to the most recent government figures. That's a 7% drop from the first of the year and the lowest monthly output since July 2005, when Hurricane Emily forced the evacuation of thousands of oil workers from the region.

Though analysts have long forecast the withering of this mature field, a rapid demise would pose serious challenges for the world's No. 5 oil producer. The oil field has supplied the bulk of Mexico's oil riches for the last quarter of a century, and petroleum revenue funds more than a third of federal spending.

"Cantarell is going to fall a lot, and quickly," said independent consultant Guillermo Cruz Dominguez Vargas, a former executive with Mexico's state-owned oil monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos, known as Pemex. "I can't imagine the strain on this society if there is nothing to replace it."

LA Times

[WCGreen]

1. Build that freakin wall....

Cause here they come....

Ready or not....

[hunter]

10. The U.S. and Mexico will tumble down the stairs hand in hand.

Like Jack & Jill.

It's the Canadians who should be thinking about a wall... Ready or not.

[Totallybushed]

2. The USA

better get an energy policy soon.

Just another reason to elect a Democrat in 2008, and a Democratic Congress in 2006.

[krkaufman]

3. One of the best scenes in the movie 'Syriana'....

... was when Matt Damon's character went-off on a potential heir to a fictional Middle East country's throne, telling him that the foreign oil, construction, technology and consulting = companies want the kingdom to continue wasting their oil-based wealth until the oil runs out -- failing to build infrastructure or education systems that could sustain the country once the oil runs out.

Pretty much what Mexico may now be facing, if one-third of their federal budget comes from oil production.

[bemildred]

4. It's going to make things interesting in El Norte too ... nt

[krkaufman]

20. huh? El Norte? n/t

[bemildred]

21. The USA. Mexico is a major supplier of our oil. nt

[hatrack]

5. This is THE Western Hemisphere story of the year . . .

And I can't believe it's not getting more attention than it is.

President Fox hyped a recent discovery as containing 10 billion bbl EUR, when suddenly whoopsie! A few months later, with more data in, looks like the exciting new find is maybe 1/10th as big. Maybe.

Oops.

[bemildred]

6. Shhhh! nt

[MGD]

7. Good, burn it all I say.

[RangerSmith]

14. I agree

the quicker we burn it all, the quicker we move on.

It's apparent that the politicians aren't going to do anything constructive.

[belab13]

16. Couldn't agree more... only hope for the planet...

distributed renewable energy systems... and take the corporation out of the equation...

[cliss]

8. It's not just Mexico.....

Saudi Arabia has been the perennial provider of oil over the past 5 decades. It has held about 60% of the world's oil supply. One of their biggest fields, the Ghawar, has been an unbelievable gusher of the fabulous black Gold. The light, sweet crude that has fueled the world's economy.

I hope no one missed that insult. It wasn't about productivity, or new innovations, or all the other wonderful things which make our economy run. It's oil, pure and simple. Without oil, we go back to the horse & buggy days.

And now? The demand for oil is only going in 1 direction: up. Supply? It seems to be peaking. I've heard that the Saudis are pushing the Ghawar even harder than before, pumping in salt water at high pressure to force more oil out. This supposedly will damage the field even more, causing the situation to become more dire.

[AlphaCentauri]

9. building the wall is part of the plan

[4dsc]

11. I'm also surprised this story isn't #1

At which point do you realize we are all on a sinking ship here??

[JPZenger]

12. Large Part of US Oil Production Goes to Japan and China

Let's talk about energy indepedence for the US. A large part of the US production of oil goes to China and Japan. If there would be a crisis causing a shortage, could this production be shifted to the US, or are their contractural obligations to keep providing it to them? My guess is they have ironclad contracts that prevent using the oil in the US.

[4dsc]

17. If the US used US oil only

If the US used US oil only, supplies would only last 4 years based upon current usage amounts of 20 mbpd.

But don't fret, peak oil will be here soon enough.. Decades of oil shortages are coming..

[jpak]

13. A BIG Peak Oil K&R

n/t

[Maven]

15. K&R for peak oil here too

[Bushwick Bill]

18. I'll go ya one more.

Matt Simmons is one of the peak oil "rock stars" because he is basically the only energy insider speaking the truth. In his latest paper/speech, he goes completely doomer. He is certain we are at peak now and says that at Schlumberger's estimated annual decline of 8%, we go from producing 80+ million barrels now to 25 million by 2020 (p. 52)! Even if you double that and say we end up at 50 by 2020, DO PEOPLE KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THIS MEANS?
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Energy%20Conversation.pdf

Also see, "Why Peak Oil Is Probably About Now."
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/1/3402/63420

[bemildred]

19. Generally, I don't think most people understand the implications.

Or perhaps one should say the ramifications.

[Strelnikov_]

22. Real Wrath-Of-God Type Stuff . . .

Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling . . .

Forty years of darkness. Earthquakes, volcanoes . . .

The dead rising from the grave . . .

Human Sacrifice, Dogs And Cats Living Together, Mass Hysteria . . .

Yergin/CERA admitting that the production peak will occur in 2040 versus their previous estimate of 2050, but no worries bacause ethanol will make up for any shortfall in supply by then. . .

[Bushwick Bill]

23. lol

Kenneth Deffeyes will have Daniel Yergin in his graveyard of cornucopians before we know it.
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events-05-11.html
Then, it is time to head for the hills. Or, it already is past time.