STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 21 July

[ozymandius]

Friday July 21, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 915 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2036 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1736 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1697
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 20, 2006

Dow... 10,928.10 -83.32 (-0.76%)
Nasdaq... 2,039.42 -41.29 (-1.98%)
S&P 500... 2,039.42 -41.29 (-1.98%)
Gold future... 632.50 -10.30 (-1.63%)
30-Year Bond 5.08% -0.02 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.03% -0.03 (-0.61%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. What should happen to the Enron tally?

Skilling is convicted, pending appeal. Lay is dead. Should we continue the count as-is? Or should we ditch it? Or possibly change the nature of it? Does it have significance anymore?

I bring this for the group to discuss as it has been expressed to me that the Enron numbers are becoming dated.

Thoughts?

[noel adamson]

6. As for Lay...

"Lay is dead"

...I'd like to see the body.

[fasttense]

10. Good question. I don't look at it every day only about once a month.

It is a good reference. I vote to keep the Enron numbers, if only as a reminder of Corporation corruption.

[saigon68]

13. Its a constant reminder

Of criminal greed, avarice and envy

Principles that most of us here reject.

I love this thread

I read it every day

I seldom have anything to say because I am learning from you and the others who post here

It should stay the way it is

Ozy, you and your posse do a hell of a job explaining to novices like me what is going on in the world of $$$$$$$$$$$$

Thanks much. Whatever you decide, will be ok with me

A Fan :-) :-)

[NC_Nurse]

15. I think it's an important reminder

that the game is usually rigged. I think I'd keep it.

But then again, I don't know sh*t! :D

[UpInArms]

20. I think the Enron count should stay and have an additional

number added:

Convenient Enron Deaths: 3

(Baxter, Lay and Coulbeck)

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

108. Works For Me nt

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

NECKLINES AND SUPPORT LEVELS ARE UPON US

Let me start this article, coming on exactly like a technical analyst. The US market is at an important fork in the road whereby we may be at a major turning point, or we could have more of the same in the weeks ahead. What is important is that in the charts of many individual stocks and indices we are at a location where this should be known soon enough to make intelligent intermediate term tactical trading and investing decisions. If the answer is that we will get more of the same swing trading environment, we will see it in the action of stocks and indices.

For example, the long term trend has been for the market to respect support levels to the point where they were sometimes broken by a marginal amount; but shortly afterward the former support levels were rocketed past by a sharp and decisive rally. Such rallies have left the bearish grabbing at air, or worse. It now seems as if this behavior is continuing in some of the most popular household Nasdaq names. A poster child for this behavior occurred this week in the action of Apple Computer. The stock broke support in the high 50s and headed consistently downward until a bullish Barron’s cover story and well-perceived quarterly earnings whipped the bears.

-cut-

A Word About Sentiment

What are illustrated above are key technical patterns and support and resistance levels at key levels where they are now being tested. At the moment, investor sentiment has turned from extremely bullish to rather bearish. While contrary opinion can be used to suggest a rally is due, that would only hold true if the swing trading characteristic market were to continue. If investor sentiment could always be used to as a contrary indicator, then that would be the “holy grail” of technical analysis. Since we know there are no holy grails, it must be true that there are times when the crowd is right. Whether or not this is one of those times, in my view will be confirmed by the behavior of the key stocks and charts that are now at key technical positions. If the crowd is always wrong, then there would be no one left to pay excessive prices to contrarians when they sell their shares!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. no reports due today n/t

[UpInArms]

51. Gauge of U.S. economy flat in latest week

(this report is not on the "list" - but attention is paid to it)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-21T142954Z_01_NAT002152_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-ECRI-WEEKLY-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - A gauge of U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week due to higher commodity prices and lower jobless claims, a report showed on Friday.

The moves were partly offset by lower housing activity.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index was flat at 136.9 in the week ended July 14.

The index's annualized growth rate edged up to 0.3 percent, compared with 0.2 percent in the prior week.


"Despite the latest uptick in the annualized growth rate, the weekly leading index's growth remains in a clear cyclical downtrend," said Melinda Hubman, a research associate at ECRI.

The downtrend points to dimming U.S. economic growth prospects, Hubman said.

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices drop on Fed chair's comments

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices fell Friday following comments by the U.S. Federal Reserve chief that surging energy prices are crimping growth even as they push up inflation, and that oil demand was decreasing.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery dipped 18 cents to $74.09 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, mid-afternoon in Singapore. The contract on lost 50 cents to settle at $74.27 a barrel in the previous session.

-cut-

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday "the increase in energy prices is clearly making the economy worse off both in terms of real activity and in terms of inflation. There is no question about it."

more

[ozymandius]

5. Schlumberger second-quarter earnings climb

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB - news), the world's largest oilfield services company, on Friday posted higher second-quarter earnings as buoyant energy prices kept demand brisk from its oil and gas-producing customers.

Net income from continuing operations rose to $857 million, or 69 cents per share, from $482 million, or 39 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding discontinued operation and charges, earnings were 73 cents per share.

more

[Roland99]

17. Chopper Ben has that much power already?

It's not just the speculators and price fixers letting prices ease a bit to lull us into thinking $70/bbl would be cheap?

;)

[UpInArms]

28. Bernanke: High energy prices hurt economy

Whatever happened to the "resilient consumer" bullsh*t mantra that we have been hearing?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060721/ap_on_bi_ge/bernanke

WASHINGTON - Surging energy prices are acting like a double whammy on the country's economy, crimping growth even as they push up inflation,
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

"The increase in energy prices is clearly making the economy worse off both in terms of real activity and in terms of inflation. There is no question about it," Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.

<snip>

Oil prices, which set record closing high of $77.03 a barrel last Friday, have retreated and are now hovering above $73 a barrel. If oil prices were to rise an additional $10 or $15 a barrel, there would be "significant consequences" for the economy, the Fed chairman added.

<snip>

Lofty energy prices, a cooling housing market and less consumer appetite for spending are figuring prominently in the forecast for slower overall economic activity.

The rise in "core" inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, "seems to be a broad-based phenomenon, so we don't think it is a statistical illusion," Bernanke told the panel. Fed policymakers focus on the core measure to get a better sense of how other prices are acting.

...more...

[wordpix2]

39. ME oil sheiks easing off so the rest of their portfolios won't tank?

They no doubt have a lot of money invested in stocks other than oil

[UpInArms]

42. Crude @ $74.58 bbl - NatGas @ $5.94 mln btus

10:02 AM ET 7/21/06 SEPT. CRUDE CLIMBS 58 CENTS TO $74.58/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:02 AM ET 7/21/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS FALLS 15.1 CENTS TO $5.94/MLN BTUS

[54anickel]

47. Oil Prices Rise After Bernanke Remarks

Oil Prices Rise After Bernanke Says High Energy Prices Slow Growth, Cause Inflation

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060721/oil_prices.html?.v=9

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Crude oil prices rose Friday, as concerns about Mideast fighting and potential gasoline supply tightness outweighed the bearish pull of comments by the U.S. Federal Reserve chief that surging energy prices are crimping growth and that oil demand was decreasing.

snip>

While oil prices have receded from recent highs after data showed that U.S. petroleum inventories grew across the board last week, worries about the Middle East crisis linger.

"It is difficult to construct an argument for lower prices as long as the situation in the Middle East persists. It still has the potential to mutate into an uglier and uglier state of affairs with each passing day," wrote Fimat USA broker Mike Fitzpatrick in a research note.

Energy analyst Paul J. Harris of the Bank of Ireland Global Markets in Dublin said that while traders are closely following the fighting, "the market seems less concerned ... than a week ago," because the conflict shows no sign of spreading. Still, he said, "risks remain on the upside."

more...

[Roland99]

55. Wait a minute! I thought they dropped on Bernanke's words just a while ago

Damn, Ben must be a powerful sorcerer!

[54anickel]

121. Crude oil and the Middle East powder keg (Warning - pro-bush, pro-war

slant)

Commentary: Unless Iran backs off, the war premium will remain
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BB29D2575-951C-4953-9452-A33CFBFB35D5%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude oil has entered into uncharted territory, with prices climbing above psychological barriers, such as $50, $60, and $70 per barrel, then establishing these levels as a base of support, before mounting rallies into still higher ground.

Markets don't trade in a straight line, they usually move up and down within a trend. Crude oil has been marching higher in an orderly fashion since the U.S. conquest of Iraq, fueled by a razor thin difference between global supply and demand.

The uptrend in crude oil has confounded market bears, because prices were climbing alongside a 25% increase in U.S. commercial oil stocks from two years, to an eight-year high of 347 million barrels in June. Apparently, U.S. oil companies have been hoarding oil supplies, in case Iran decides to withhold crude oil exports or targets oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Iraq is also falling into a civil war and its daily oil output of 2.4 million bpd is unstable. And now China has just completed oil storage tanks in Zhejiang, Shandong and Liaoning, with capacity to hold up to 88 million barrels, and is planning a third phase of yet another 200 million barrels of storage.

snip>

The last time the crude oil market built in a $10 to $15 per barrel 'war premium" was from November 2002 through early March 2003, as the drum beat of war with Saddam Hussein's regime grew louder. Yet at the moment U.S. president George Bush presented Saddam with an ultimatum of war or exile on March 19th, the price of crude oil peaked, and began to collapse by 25% within a few days, even before the first bombs fell in Baghdad. Oil traders had correctly calculated that the war would end quickly, and without any damage to Iraq's oil installations. :eyes:

There is always a risk that the current $10 to $15 per barrel "war premium" built into oil prices, due to fears of an eventual military confrontation with Iran, could dissipate overnight, if the Ayatollah flinches at the eleventh hour and agrees to the U.N. incentive plan for abandoning the enrichment of uranium. But Iran is not Iraq, and the game of brinksmanship between the U.S. and Iran, probably won't be settled until after the U.S. Congressional elections in early November.
:think: Now there he's onto something!

[ozymandius]

7. European bourses suffer tech-led losses

European stocks fell on Friday as inflation concerns returned to knock Wall Street stocks, while chipmakers fell following weaker-than-expected results from Germany's Infineon.

By mid morning, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.5 per cent to 1,294.54, while Frankfurt's Xetra Dax fell 0.7 per cent to 5,508.34. Tha CAC 40 in Paris shed 0.6 per cent to 4,833.29, while London's FTSE 100 lost 0.5 per cent to 5,740.3.

The Fed minutes revealed continuing concerns over inflation in the US and "significant uncertainty" over future interest rate decisions. This left the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.8 per cent lower at 10,928.10 and the Nasdaq Composite 2 per cent lower at 2,039.42.

Back in Europe, and technology stocks were set for heavy losses. Intel, the world's biggest chipmaker announced a lower sales forecast in the US overnight, contributing to the Nasdaq's 2 per cent fall. Meanwhile, Germany's Infineon reported a weaker-than-expected rise in its third-quarter core earnings after a 1 per cent fall in sales.

more

[ozymandius]

8. London lower as banks and miners weigh

London equities slipped into the red in early trade on Friday as weakness in the banking and mining sectors weighed on the market.

The FTSE 100 was down 15.8 points, 0.3 per cent at 5,755.1 while the mid-cap FTSE 250 was 38.8 points, or 0.4 per cent lower at 9,168.3.

-cut-

Banks were lower as the sector was touched by interest rate sensitivity and investors bought into defensive stocks such as tobacco and healthcare instead.

more

[ozymandius]

9. Microsoft to whittle cash pile for $40 billion stock buyback

Microsoft has found something to do with the $34.1 billion in cash it has sitting around.

The company said Thursday it will buy back stock worth up to $20 billion next month, part of a $40 billion repurchase plan the likes of which some investors have requested.

The plan, announced along with quarterly earnings down 24 percent from a year ago, comes on the heels of a $30 billion stock repurchase completed during the past two years.

more

[54anickel]

30. Coca-Cola sets repurchase plan, shares rise

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=newIssuesNews&storyID=2006-07-20T222046Z_01_N20323466_RTRIDST_0_FOOD-COCACOLA-SHAREPURCHASE-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Coca-Cola Co. (KO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday said its board authorized the repurchase of up to 300 million shares, or nearly 13 percent of its outstanding stock, based on growth prospects at the world's largest soft drink company.

Shares of Coca-Cola jumped in after hours trading following the announcement.

"Things are getting better, that's what's going on here," said Manny Goldman, a beverage industry consultant and longtime follower of the sector. "The company sees the outlook improving significantly versus a few years ago, and if that's the case, there's a decent chance that the stock may be a good value." :eyes:

snip>

"It sets the stage for them to continuing doing what they do, which is return a good portion of cash to shareholders via share repurchase," said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Mark Swartzberg.

Since 1997, Coca-Cola has repurchased about $10 billion worth of its shares and paid shareholders $18.7 billion in dividends.

more...


:freak: Hmmmm, what if there were a million FTEs out there? You know, those failed transactions from naked short sales? Wonder if some corrupt, Enron type has figured out a way to play some sort of game with those yet. Have a crooked broker/dealer naked short your own company, issue a buyback to either reduce the number of legitimate shares or somehow wipe out the FTEs, and then start all over again. Would it be doable? :shrug:



Related stories -
Dasani, IPO send Coca-Cola to surprise profit increase
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060719.RTICKERSMALL19/TPStory/Business

Coca-Cola Co. reported an unexpected increase in second-quarter profit on sales of Dasani water and a gain from the initial public offering of a Turkish bottler.

Profit rose 6.6 per cent to $1.84-billion (U.S.) or 78 cents a share, from $1.72-billion or 72 cents a year earlier, Coca-Cola said yesterday. The company is "in a good position" to meet its growth targets for the year, chief executive officer Neville Isdell said.

Revenue increased 2.6 per cent to $6.48-billion on gains in Europe and Latin America as Coca-Cola promoted the World Cup tournament with soccer ball-shaped pop bottles and images of players on cans.

Mr. Isdell is trying to regain ground lost to PepsiCo Inc. in the United States by adding flavoured Dasani water and expanding lower-calorie drinks such as Powerade.

more...


Herbal tea beverage to eclipse Coca Cola in Chinese
http://english.people.com.cn/200607/20/eng20060720_285121.html

China's traditional herbal tea beverage packaged in fashionable cans and bottles is likely to eclipse Coca Cola in the Chinese market this year.

The market position of herbal tea was consolidated by news of its inclusion on China's first national Intangible Heritage list in June.

Zhang Junxiu, director of the Guangdong Provincial Food and Drug Industry association said that with rising market demand, production of herbal tea is expected to surpass Coca Cola products for the first time this year.

Zhang said that Guangdong Province in south China will produce 3.5 million tons of herbal tea this year, as compared with Coca Cola's output of 3.17 million tons last year.

Herbal tea, which relies on Chinese traditional pharmacological principles to reduce internal heat, has become increasingly popular with its market image of being a healthy choice for cooling summer heat while quenching thirst.

more...

[ozymandius]

11. SEC files charges in backdating scandal

US authorities handed down the first criminal and civil charges in a widening US stock options backdating scandal on Thursday, charging three former executives of California technology company Brocade Communications Systems in a case described as “poisoning to an efficient marketplace”.

In an unusual move, the Securities and Exchange Commission, Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation unveiled the charges at a joint news conference in San Francisco, spiritual home to the technology companies that pioneered the used of stock options in the 1990s.

-cut-

At issue has been whether options were deliberately backdated to periods when a company's stock price was at or near a record low and whether this was properly disclosed and accounted for.

The agencies alleged in criminal and civil suits that Gregory Reyes, former Brocade chief executive and the company’s former human resources director, Stephanie Jensen, “routinely backdated stock options grants to give employees favourably priced options without recording necessary compensation expenses”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0477b68a-1826-11db-99a6-0000779e2340.html

[ozymandius]

12. Ford's problems mount with second-quarter loss

Pity the role of Mark Fields, Ford Motor Co.'s executive vice president and president of the Americas.

As he tours the country -- he was in Pittsburgh Wednesday for the grand opening of a new facility for a local Ford-Mercury dealer -- pitching the automaker's turnaround plan, the ground under him continues to give way.

The latest evidence came yesterday, when the nation's second-largest car company, citing slumping sales and the cost of shedding personnel, posted a surprise second-quarter loss of $123 million.

The loss of 7 cents per share for the April-June period contrasts with a profit of $946 million, or 47 cents per share, in the second quarter of last year and, after excluding special items, still came to a loss of 3 cents a share on continuing operations, well off the 12 cents-per-share profit Wall Street had been expecting. Revenue fell 6 percent to $41.97 billion from $44.55 billion.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06202/707459-185.stm

[UpInArms]

27. Ford blames 2Q loss on dependence of SUVs

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060721/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_ford

DETROIT - Ford Motor Co. dashed Wall Street's hopes for a profitable second quarter Thursday, blaming its dependence on high-margin SUVs for a $123 million loss as consumers shifted toward gas-sipping cars.

The nation's second-largest automaker, whose shares slipped more than 2 percent, sought to appease its critics by pledging to speed up its North American turnaround plan but didn't say how.

Ford, which has been losing market share to Asian manufacturers for a decade, has been badly stung by high gas prices because big trucks and sport utility vehicles account for nearly 70 percent of the vehicles it sells. Despite some recent success with new car models like the Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan, the speed with which consumers have migrated away from gas-guzzlers has caught the company by surprise.

"We did anticipate that the world would not remain static and that things like crossovers and cars would actually play a bigger role in the industry's future, and, therefore, we planned them to play a bigger role in our future," Chairman and Chief Executive Bill Ford told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.

"It's just that the speed at which this happened — over one quarter — we didn't foresee that."

...more...

[wordpix2]

40. BS, companies like Toyota & Honda & even people like me knew peak oil is

here and now some years ago. Toyota came out with Prius in 2001 and Honda had its first Civic hybrid in '02.

A 2nd quarter loss is not what Ford's problem is about. Being WAY behind the times, is.

[Paulie]

43. Slight correction, Prius came out in 1997

But it was only in Japan. First model to the U.S. was 2001 though.

See: http://www.hybridcenter.org/hybrid-timeline.html

Toyota's technology is almost 10 years old...

[wordpix2]

79. thanks for correction

[Roland99]

45. FORD = Found On Road Dead

[WePurrsevere]

14. EBay to buy back billions in stock - Company meets analyst 2nd Q prospects

Hopefully this isn't a dup, if so I apologize in advance. Hot on the heels of an eBay store fee increase as a long term ebay seller/buyer/PITB I found this "interesting".

Providing a modest boost to its depressed shares, eBay Inc. reported second-quarter results on Wednesday in line with analyst expectations, and it disclosed plans to buy back up to $2 billion in stock in what would be the first share repurchase in the Internet giant's history.

At the same time, the San Jose online marketplace addressed fears about a slowdown in the company's e-commerce business by saying it will raise fees for sellers who operate online stores, a move that will inevitably elicit grumbling from some of the Web site's users.

<snip>

During the second quarter, eBay's profit fell 15 percent to $249.9 million (17 cents per share) from $291.6 million (21 cents) in the same period a year ago. A change in how the company accounts for stock-based compensation was responsible for the decline.

<snip>

The plan is to raise prices for such listings by an average of 6 percent starting on Aug. 22 to encourage users to sell in the auction format instead. The company has determined that those "core listings" sell 14 times faster than items that are available in Stores.

and here are some POVs from the "happy" eBay store sellers about this "6%" increase (if you use Bush* Math):
Check out many of eBay's Store Board threads: http://forums.ebay.com/db2/forum.jspa?forumID=21
and more from one of the older (if not oldest) online auction communities: http://www.otwa.com/community/showthread.php?t=42489

Sales are down all over eBay and the main reason many sellers started using the stores was because auciton sell through was and is down so badly. IMO how they're reacting is to be expected. Many sellers put a LOT of work into their stores to get them picked up by search engines like Google, Froogle, etc. They did this at eBay's prompting to help drive traffic to their stores AND eBay.

[TheFarseer]

16. The Market is pissing me off

I'm in a stock that released a glowing earnings report - beating the Wall Street estimates yesterday and got pounded by the market. Tell me how that made sense!

[Roland99]

18. What were their future earnings projections, though?

[wordpix2]

41. my bro the stock market expert says don't be in for the short term

If the stock is a good one, hang onto it but if you're listening to hot tips, forget it.

[sgxnk]

122. well...

the classic adage of "buy the rumour sell the news" is there for a reason

the real key is that Wall Street estimates are total rubbage.

if i'm B&H'ing a stock i try to do my own field research cause these analysts are dipsh*ts generally speaking. and lemmings

[UpInArms]

19. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.86 Change -0.34 (-0.39%)

To Hike or Not to Hike 'Tis The Dollar's Question

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/To_Hike_or_Not_to_1153476263410.html

What only a few days ago seemed like a done deal is now rife with uncertainty. We are referring of course to the possibility of the Fed rate hike rate at the August FOMC meeting. Fed fund futures which in the aftermath of the “hot’ CPI numbers earlier this week spiked to above 80% probability have scaled back the odds down to even money as the ramifications of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s guarded testimony continue to resonate throughout the currency market. With the Fed signaling a more neutral rather hawkish posture, currency markets continued to sell dollars as US rate hike expectations are pared down.

In tonight’s trading no currency has been the bigger beneficiary of this change in sentiment that the Japanese yen which up to now was the biggest victim of interest rate spread speculation. The yen fell to multi year lows against the British pound and near all time lows against euro earlier in the week but tonight yen appreciated materially with USD/JPY tumbling more than 100 points breaking the 116.00 level for the first time in five days. The move downward occurred despite statements by BOJ Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto that Japanese rates are likely to remain low for an extended period of time as the central bank tries to gradually normalize monetary policy to ensure that the ongoing Japanese economic recovery is not damaged in the process.

In the currency markets however, it is not the absolute value of the carry that matters but the future direction of the interest rate spreads. If the US rate hike cycle will indeed come to a halt at 5.5%, as many market players now anticipate, while the BOJ proceeds, albeit slowly, to push rates higher yen should continue to strengthen against the greenback. Tonight’s price action may be a signal that the USD/JPY up move is finally exhausted, as traders cast their eye to the future of shrinking interest rate differentials between the two currencies.

...more...

Dollar Extends Slide as We Inch Closer to a Pause

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Extends_Slide_as_We_1153431665304.html

US Dollar

Bernanke stuck to his guns at his second back to back testimony on the economy and monetary policy. Despite pressure to elaborate on the messages that he has been sending, Bernanke reiterated his toned down comments and left the market still guessing on whether we will see another interest rate hike in August. The minutes from the June 28-29 FOMC meeting were equally subdued. Confirming how close the Fed is to pausing on interest rates, the minutes indicated that the decision to raise interest rates at the last meeting was a “close call.” Furthermore, many of the FOMC members warned about the difficulties in terms of what to do next with monetary policy. According to former FOMC member McTeer, “normally, its fairly clear.” The fact that it is “uncertain” this time suggests that the Fed may really be concerned about the risks that lie ahead. At this point, the futures market is pricing in a less than 50 percent probability of an August rate hike. The odds have fallen significantly since the stronger inflation numbers that we saw on Monday and Tuesday. Today’s weaker economic reports provide additional evidence of the biggest risk, which is that an overly aggressive Fed could cripple the US economy. This may be a bit dramatic, but a meaningful slowdown is not. Everyone from bank analysts to interest rate traders are pricing in much weaker conditions in 2007. Leading indicators have already grown at a slower pace in the month of June following two straight months of negative readings. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Fed survey took a sharp plunge from 13.1 to 6.0, the lowest reading since January. Although a positive reading still indicates growth, the combination of today’s weakness along with a big drop in the Empire State survey reported on Monday suggests that we could see an equally meaningful drop in the ISM report for the same month. There was one piece of good news that came out, namely jobless claims, which shrank from 334k to 304k. Claims continue to be at very encouraging levels and indicate that for the time, even though the economic outlook is uncertain, companies have yet to institute any major layoffs, which should keep consumer spending stable.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Gold rises on fears Israel will invade Lebanon (@ $634.00 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B309FD107%2DD560%2D4E43%2D928C%2D034643E99A7B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rose early Friday, as safe-haven demand was refuelled by speculation that Israel is planning a ground invasion of Lebanon. Gold for August delivery was last up $1.50 at $634.0 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Israeli army said that it has mobilized thousands of reserve troops, igniting speculation that it is preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon. Gold futures are likely to gain today on the news. Other metals prices were mixed. Silver added 17.50 cents at $11.240 an ounce, copper edged up 3.05 cents at $3.44 a pound and palladium rose 0.5 cent at $312.05 an ounce. Platinum dropped $1.30 at $1,225.0 an ounce.

[UpInArms]

25. Israel pounds Lebanon as casualties mount

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topnews&storyid=2006-07-21T042214Z_01_L11538533_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsArt-R1-MostViewed-1

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israel jets struck Beirut and east Lebanon on Friday in a bloody 10-day-old war against Hizbollah, but the guerrilla group insisted it would only free two Israeli soldiers it is holding as part of a prisoner swap.

As the evacuation of thousands of foreigners from Beirut proceeded unhindered, four Israeli troops were killed in fierce battles with Hizbollah guerrillas inside Lebanon on Thursday, according to Al Jazeera TV.

Israel confirmed two of its troops were killed in the clashes and said two of its helicopters collided near the Lebanese border, killing a pilot and injuring three crewmen.

Hizbollah said it lost two of its fighters in the clashes, which occurred just inside Lebanon near where Hizbollah killed two Israeli soldiers on Wednesday.

<snip>

Its campaign has killed at least 312 people in Lebanon, the vast majority civilians, and displaced half a million. Thirty-two Israeli troops and civilians have been killed.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Huh? So NOW gold is paying attention to the ME, or is this to draw

attention away from the fact that the buck is sliding? Inquiring minds and all that jazz. A buck-and-a-half rise certainly doesn't sound like "safe-haven demand" due to ME tension to me. But hey, what do I know? :shrug:

[sgxnk]

124. gold

gold USED to be an inflationary play...

now, it is PRIMARILY a commodity play. the dynamic is change. most wall street ANALysts missed this. not surprising considering...

clearly, the disconnect between USD and gold is quite astounding

the market is open like never before, with ETF, futures, minifutures, options, and a global market in gold that is simply astounding... think India middle class, etc. heck, last time gold ran there were restrictions on physical commodity ownership (let alone no ETF).

of course it is still the safe haven play to an extent too, but ya gotta watch the technicals (as i always propose)

also, the XAU and other gold indexes are historically cheap in relation to spot gold

[54anickel]

74. Gold futures drop in volatile trade (Here I thought peace broke out or

sumptin :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B408303B1%2DDA43%2D42B6%2D87FD%2DB04B30DBCCD4%7D&siteid=bigcharts&dist=news

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped Friday in volatile trade, as investors shrugged off dollar weakness and speculation that Israel's planning a ground invasion of Lebanon.

snip>

"Volatility continues to buffet the gold markets once again as the week draws to a close," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco.com. "Swinging within a $25 range, the precious metal is struggling to find its bearings as news item after news item tugs at it in different directions."

snip>

"The market is on hold," said Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com, adding that traders are waiting to see whether the end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle is indeed approaching. Norman said that gold will rise in the long term: "It's not a question of if; it's a question of when."

Frederic Panizzutti, a senior Vice President at MKS Finance S.A., said that he expected trading to remain very volatile next week.

snip>

John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service, said he expects gold's downtrend to continue into next week.
Person cited several reasons for his bearish outlook. First, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony signaled that long-term inflation appears to be under control and as a result gold may not be needed as an inflation hedge, Person said. Second, oil prices will also pull back, particularly if supply data next week shows an increase in inventories, easing fears that Middle East violence would disrupt supplies.

more...

[54anickel]

87. The Uncle Sam Boogie (another Dore tune)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/dore/dore072106.html

Still like Purchasing Power the best.

[54anickel]

116. Gold closes lower; loses 7.2% on the week

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B408303B1%2DDA43%2D42B6%2D87FD%2DB04B30DBCCD4%7D&link=&keyword=silver

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed lower Friday, as investors, unsettled by the metal's recent volatility, shrugged off dollar weakness and speculation that Israel is planning a ground invasion of Lebanon.

Gold for August delivery closed down $12.30 at $620.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal lost 7.2% on the week.

Other metals prices also posted losses. Silver dropped 22 cents to $10.845 an ounce and copper declined 8.65 cents at $3.3230 a pound. Palladium was down 20 cents at $311.80 an ounce and platinum dropped $5.80 at $1,220.50 an ounce.

"Volatility continues to buffet the gold markets as the week draws to a close," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco.com. "Swinging within a $25 range, the precious metal is struggling to find its bearings as news item after news item tugs at it in different directions."

Reports suggesting Israel may invade Lebanon pushed crude oil for September delivery above $75 a barrel Friday, while the dollar dropped to one-week lows against the euro and the Japanese yen.

more...

[UpInArms]

22. Dell warns results below forecasts

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060721/bs_nm/dell_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dell Inc. (Nasdaq:DELL - news) on Friday warned that second-quarter profit would fall well below forecasts and revenue would also disappoint, blaming "aggressive pricing" in a slowing commercial market.

Shares of the computer maker fell more than 10 percent in premarket trade after it issued an outlook calling for earnings per share of 21 cents to 23 cents and revenue of about $14 billion for the quarter.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast, on average, 32 cents a share on revenue of $14.2 billion.

"Certainly you have to be surprised by the level of the earnings warning in this case, but it's certainly not a good indication for the economy or for the stock market at least today." said Tim Ghriskey, Chief Investment Officer at Solaris Asset Management.

Revenue growth at Dell, which sells directly to customers via the Internet and phone, has slowed in recent quarters amid tougher competition from No. 2 PC maker Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ - news) and complaints about poor after-sale services.

Some analysts question whether Dell can regain its high double-digit percentage growth of the early years of the decade.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. Dell shares fall 13% to lowest level since 2001

shows that the Dimson's "robust economy" is a flat-out lie.

[UpInArms]

23. RadioShack slides to 2Q loss from profit

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060721/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_radioshack

SAN FRANCISCO - RadioShack Corp. said Friday it slid to a second-quarter loss from year-ago profit, as the electronics retailer posted restructuring and legal settlement costs, as well as lower sales of post-paid wireless products.

Quarterly losses totaled $3.2 million, or 2 cents per share, compared with a year-ago profit of $52.3 million, or 33 cents per share. Revenue edged up nearly 1 percent to $1.1 billion from $1.09 billion last year.

RadioShack recorded pre-tax charges of $21 million for restructuring activities including lease terminations, store liquidations and other actions, and $8.5 million to settle wage-and-hour class action lawsuits.

Analysts, on average, predicted a profit of 12 cents per share on revenue of $1.08 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Financial. Wall Street estimates typically exclude charges and other one-time items.

Same-store sales, or sales in stores open at least one year, dipped 3 percent during the quarter. The switch to selling Cingular products from selling Verizon products, beginning late last year, has posed a problem, the company said.

...more...

They have also run through a few CEOs because they had a LIAR at the helm.

[UpInArms]

24. Barclays says US court dismisses Enron shareholder claims

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-07-21T085210Z_01_L21843612_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-BARCLAYS.xml&src=rss

LONDON (Reuters) - A U.S. court has dismissed claims against Britain's Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) in a multi-billion dollar lawsuit filed by Enron shareholders against banks that worked with the fallen energy giant, the lender said on Friday.

Britain's third largest bank, which worked with Enron largely in an investment banking capacity, said it had received the order from a U.S. district court on Thursday dismissing the claims in a civil suit against the group and its investment banking arm, Barclays Capital.

Enron shareholders had filed a class action suit against Enron itself, its banks and several former top executives, claiming they had lost $40 billion when Enron collapsed. They said Barclays and other banks had helped Enron hide its debts.

<snip>

Several banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have already reached billion dollar settlements over the suit, which is scheduled to start later this year.

Another British giant, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research), was reported this weekend to be close to reaching a settlement with Enron investors.

...more...

[Roland99]

26. Futures outlook...

S&P 500 +1.00 1255.20 7/21 8:56am
NASDAQ -3.75 1473.50 7/21 8:56am
Dow Jones +3.00 10981.00 7/21 7:49am

[UpInArms]

29. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. S&P 100 futures are paring early gains and now signaling a relatively flat open, but Nasdaq 100 futures remain under pressure as the absence of economic data places even more emphasis on Dell's warning and technology's ongoing struggles. While guidance overall hasn't been that bad, there is no doubt that earnings growth has to slow for many companies in the months ahead, as the absence of leadership from the Tech sector only makes it harder for the market to generate a sustained rally.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Stage remains set for yesterday's pullback to carry over into today's open as futures trade continues to languish below fair value. At the expense of further weakness expected in equities, though, and amid some safe-haven buying ahead of the weekend as developments in the Middle East take a turn for the worse, bonds are catching an early bid. The yield on the 10-yr note is now at 5.01% with two maturities -- the 3-yr and 5-yr -- actually yielding less that 5.0%, which could offer some support for rate-sensitive sectors like Financials and Utilities.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.8. Futures indications were pointing to a slightly higher open, in large part following better than expected earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), Amgen (AMGN) and Schlumberger (SLB). However, just as Caterpillar (CAT) was following suit with a solid report and upside FY06 guidance, Dell (DELL) warned that Q2 results will miss Wall Street's estimates. Thus, with Dell now indicating to open down about 12% and at its lowest level since 2001, the concerns about slowing economic growth that rattled tech yesterday have returned and are weighing heavily on overall sentiment.

[UpInArms]

31. 9:38 EST red opening numbers

Dow 10,916.73 -11.37 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,026.14 -13.27 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,247.34 -1.79 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 5.01 -0.018 (-0.36%)

NYSE Volume 255,900,000
Nasdaq Volume 240,742,000

[UpInArms]

32. U.S Treasuries edge up, 10-yr notes eye 5 pct

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-21T133622Z_01_N21374152_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - U.S Treasury debt prices edged up on Friday and the 10-year note's yield dipped toward the key 5 percent mark on hopes the Federal Reserve might be considering a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign.

But a slight pullback was expected as bond investors squared positions ahead of the weekend amid a lack of major economic data and light volumes.

"We are opening fairly strong this morning, but I would not be surprised to see a little bit of pullback as we head into the weekend. We had a pretty good slide (in yields) this week," said Sharon Stark, chief market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore.

The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> rose 4/32 in price for a yield of 5.01 percent, compared with 5.03 late on Thursday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

Debt prices staged their biggest rally in six weeks on Wednesday as investors bet that even if the Fed raised interest rates in August, that could be the last in this cycle.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves via over-the-weekend system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-21T133204Z_01_N21342655_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday it added temporary reserves to the banking system through over-the-weekend system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Here's what it says at the FRB link:

To implement monetary policy, short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements are used to temporarily affect the size of the Federal Reserve System's portfolio and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.

No amount given for the repos issued :eyes:

[Roland99]

38. It was just a mere $2.5 billion. Pocket change.

[UpInArms]

36. 9:48 EST redder numbers and blather

Dow 10,886.71 -41.39 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,022.39 -17.02 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,246.31 -2.82 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 5.012 -0.016 (-0.32%)

NYSE Volume 357,795,000
Nasdaq Volume 346,208,000

09:40 am : Major averages open in split fashion but all three are now trading below the flat line as investors weigh a warning from Dell (DELL 19.31 -2.79) against an otherwise solid batch of earnings reports. Last night, Microsoft (MSFT 23.99 +1.14) closed its fiscal year by beating estimates by a penny, boosting its FY07 outlook and rewarding shareholders with a $20 bln buyback. Google (GOOG 386.76 -0.36) more than doubling Q2 profits and countering Yahoo's (YHOO 25.05 -0.22) recent disappointment has also been welcome news, as has Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 70.40 +1.32) growing record earnings 41% year/year and raising FY06 revenue forecasts. However, taking some steam out of what was initially shaping up to be a respectable rebound following yesterday's pullback has been Dell opening sharply lower (-13%) and its worst level in five years, which is fueling concerns about tech's diminishing growth prospects.DJ30 -16.26 NASDAQ -13.28 SP500 -2.11 NASDAQ Vol 242 mln NYSE Vol 232 mln

[UpInArms]

37. advancer/decliner statistics (updated)

9:47 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 19 TO 5

9:47 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 9 TO 5

on edit:

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE VOLUME 329.1M

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ VOLUME 413.9M

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE HAS 847 ADVANCERS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE HAS 1,340 DECLINERS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE HAS 196 ISSUES UNCHANGED

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 501 GAINERS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 1,834 LOSERS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 110 ISSUES UNCHANGED

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE HAS 36 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NYSE HAS 62 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 9 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

9:56 AM ET 7/21/06 NASDAQ HAS 141 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

[UpInArms]

44. 10:15 EST floor is slippery red with blather

Dow 10,856.13 -71.97 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,015.70 -23.72 (-1.16%)
S&P 500 1,240.72 -8.41 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 5.016 -0.012 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 611,735,000
Nasdaq Volume 563,965,000

10:00 am : Stocks extend their reach to the downside as market technicals take a turn for the worse. Within the last 15 minutes, the inability by the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to find support near key levels of 10900, 1247 and 2024, respectively, has merely added to the market's early struggles. Technology removing all doubt as the worst performing S&P economic sector with a year-to-date date decline of more than 13%, including today's 1.5% slide, remains the biggest drag on sentiment. DJ30 -40.11 NASDAQ -19.47 SOX -3.6% SP500 -5.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1835/545/460 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1748/887/374 mln

[UpInArms]

46. Today's Howler: Halliburton shares fall on disappointing earnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B2CC9A9B5%2D12BB%2D4FA2%2D89AD%2D8E77A767FA33%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Halliburton Co. reported late Thursday a 51% increase in its second-quarter profit, with a sharp rise in oilfield services revenue more than offsetting a loss for its KBR subsidiary caused by a decline in U.S. Defense Department contracts in the Middle East and costly delays on a big natural gas project in Nigeria.

But the results fell short of what investors had been looking for, triggering a sell-off at the open Friday that sent the stock as much as 6.4% lower to $30.58 a share.

Houston-based Halliburton (HAL) said its net income for the three months ended June 30 rose to $591 million, or 55 cents a share, from $392 million, or 38 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

The results included $82 million of income from discontinued operations, which added 7 cents a share to the bottom line.

Excluding special items, income from continuing operations was $509 million, or 48 cents a share, up from $384 million, or 37 cents, a year earlier.

...more...

[Roland99]

50. 51% increase for the bastard war profiteers!

:mad:

[mike923]

64. Whose large stock holders happen to be...

democrats. In case you didn't know.

[Roland99]

70. Doesn't surprise me. IMO, there are few Democrats that have America's best

interests at heart instead of their own.

Would also explain why so many voted for the IWR.

[TheWatcher]

132. And your point?

There are far more holders of this stock the opposite party, and we get a front row seat everyday to how much they give a damn about this country.

Oh that's right, you had no point.

[wordpix2]

80. Halliburton investors are seeing the end of BushCo & no hope for Cheney08

that's what's really happening.

[stop the bleeding]

48. will we see 10825 by 10:30am?

there is a good chance at this point

a possible triple digit loss?

[Roland99]

52. Bit of a pause and small recovery from daily lows.

But, give it time.

All the market needs is a bit of a trigger and it will shoot one way or the other. People are way too antsy, imo.

[stop the bleeding]

53. yep

the DJIA just shot up 30+ points in the last 8 minutes B-)

we are out of the market today.

we were able to lock in gains yesterday morning before everything started to go south, we will have to wait and start over on Monday.

[54anickel]

49. Government to slash testing for mad cow disease by 90%

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4061989.html

WASHINGTON - The Agriculture Department is cutting its tests for mad cow disease by about 90 percent, drawing protests from consumer groups.

The current testing level — 1,000 each day — reflects the heightened concern that followed the discovery in December 2003 of mad cow disease in the U.S.

Since then, tests have turned up two more cases of the disease, known medically as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE.

The government says there may be a handful of undetected cases.

"It's time that our surveillance efforts reflect what we now know is a very, very low level of BSE in the United States," Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Thursday. "There is no significant BSE problem in the United States, and after all of this surveillance, I am able to say there never was."

more...

[54anickel]

54. Short interest positions on NYSE rose in July

http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-07-20T195954Z_01_N20439822_RTRIDST_0_SHORTINTEREST-NYSE.XML&rpc=66

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange rose for a fifth consecutive month in the July reporting period, signaling growing bearish sentiment among equity investors.

As of mid-July, the number of short-selling positions not yet closed rose to 9,298,283,040 shares from 9,087,309,158 shares on June 15, according to the NYSE.

Short interest on July 14 was equal to 2.5 percent of the total shares outstanding on the NYSE.

Investors who sell securities "short" profit from betting stocks will fall. Short sellers borrow shares and then sell them, waiting for the stock to fall so they can buy the shares at the lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Hedge funds rake in big bucks

Hedge funds gained $42 billion in new money in the second quarter, their biggest quarterly gain in three years.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/20/markets/hedge_flows/

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Hedge funds attracted $42 billion of new money in the second quarter, the largest quarterly spike in new assets since 2003, according to an industry tracker.

That brings the total assets invested in hedge funds up to $1.225 trillion, according to Chicago-based hedge fund tracker Hedge Fund Research, which conducted the survey of asset flows.

snip>

While hedge fund performance this year has been disappointing to some, the funds have outperformed many major market indices. For the year, hedge funds have posted gains of 6.16, according to the HFRI Composite Index. Hedge fund performance can be difficult to track, because the funds are private and are not required to report their performance. Thus, different hedge fund indexes will report different results.

By contrast, the S&P 500 is up 0.92 percent for the year to date, while the MSCI World Index is up 2.17 percent.

snip>

For the quarter, hedge funds are flat, according to the HFRI Index. The top performing hedge fund category for the quarter was short selling, with an average return of 4.17 percent, reflecting the tough market environment during the quarter. Short selling funds are up 2.30 percent for the year, according to HFR.

Equity non-hedge performed worst, posting a 2.94 percent decline for the quarter....

more...

[harlinchi]

57. Here's a question that will cause you smart guys to laugh in derision:

At what point do remarks Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke become manipulation of the market? His words just seem to have positive effects that are superbly timed. I guess I'm overly suspicious but it does seem convenient.

[ozone_man]

60. He can't prevent the inevitable.

I'm not one of the "smart guys", but I'll add my 2 cents anyway. :) I think the Fed has delayed the recession pretty well over the past few years through interest rate lowering and all, but that effect is now ending. WS is grasping at positive interpretations of Fed speak now. The same goes for the PPT. They can't prevent the inevitable. Whether market manipulation really works long term will become clear over the next two to four years, since I think most of the antirecession cards have been played. I think it will only make the fall that much more severe, since our accumulated debt will exert that much more weight against a recovery.

[Roland99]

63. I agree. It's *possible* a deep recession or depression can be avoided but

it will come at a cost somewhere (huge Medicare/Social Security spending cuts, increased taxes, some new market paradigm, rejuvenation of manufacturing jobs here in the US or any combination thereof).

But, to be honest, I don't see the pieces fitting into place to allow that to happen.

[harlinchi]

65. To Roland99 and Ozone_Man, thanks, guys!

I know the tone of your answers was negative over the long term but somehow I am reassured by your responses regarding the inability of the chairman to manipulate events or results.

[specimenfred1984]

71. The Fed's Big Banking Allies Do Intervene

I'm am a smart guy, being that I've been watching this manipulation with real-time quotes over the last few years. When a Fed Gov or the Fed head speaks, there are 20,000 volume spikes on 2-minute charts in the S&P 500 futures, very easily seen by anyone with real-time quotes and charting.

A day or two later, there are 20,000 volume spikes with the price moving down instead of up. The usual volume during up or down moves rarely exceeds 15,000 in a 2-minute increment.

It's a sad state of affairs that we have a gov't and a Fed that are clearly just propaganda tools at this point in time. There is no question about it, the public is being lied to, manipulated, misdirected and defrauded.

[VegasWolf]

58. Morning Traders! Ready for options expiration Friday? Lots of deadzones

today.

[stop the bleeding]

59. wishing I

had sold some Naked Puts for today, but I have been too busy to look for them, oh well there is always next month.

[specimenfred1984]

61. Looks Like The 2006 Bottom Will Be Hit Again

Whoever those spew-posters were a couple of days ago, here's some advice: provide some reason for your bullish or bearish position so you won't look like such a blowhard.

Right or wrong, at least it'd show you have some balls. For instance, this market and especially the S&P is completely corrupt as evidenced by pure manipulation as witnessed on Wednesday. It's been a clear pattern for 2 years now that when the "Fed speaks the Fed pumps". It's been documented that big trading houses such as Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley do the buying for the Fed on these days that they "pump".

It's also a clear pattern that they "dump" a day or two later as evidenced by yesterday's and today's trading.

GROW SOME BALLS BLOWHARDS (not any of the reg posters, you guys and women are great!).

[IChing]

66. That's why we have faries in this world of trading

they magically appear from almost nowhere, coming out of their haunts in the remotes of Iceland,
to save the stock market in America.

[MUAD_DIB]

68. Would that be considered insider info, or just plain

stock fudging?

[IChing]

73. Stock Fudging or faries? You decide

The Invisible Hand
(of the U.S. Government)
in Financial Markets
by Robert Bell
April 3, 2005

Summary: The U.S. government is manipulating all major U.S. financial markets—stocks, treasuries, currencies. This article shows how it is possible and how it is done, why it is done, who specifically is doing it, when they do it, and where they get the money to do it.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2005/0403.html



In Iceland, spirits are in the material world
Many on island nation believe in other-worldly beings
By COLIN NICKERSON
THE BOSTON GLOBE

"It can be a strange country," said Arni Bjornsson, head of ethnological studies at the National Museum of Iceland. "Even hard-headed engineers, who say they don't hold with superstition, will build a road around a certain hill or boulder rather than take the risk of offending elves."

[Spazito]

83. Thanks for the link to Bell's article, it is a MUST READ, imo, for

those who are unfamiliar with the PPT, etc. This article fills in the holes for me re how the various manipulations are done in detail. I have added this to my growing PPT file.

Thanks again for this, much appreciated.

[IChing]

86. No problem, I sold my stocks but still look at the market

Bell is one that I read from years back.

[Spazito]

92. I am in the market but not the US market directly, I made sure I have

no US holdings anymore but, the reality is, what happens in the US market still directly affects my portfolio, just to a lesser extent.

[Roland99]

95. Helps explain the idea that Iraq invasion was partly over a move to euros.

[Spazito]

97. Yes, I have always believed that was definitely a part of the bush

cabal's reasoning, I think it definitely helped determine the "when" of it. The article gives me backup now for when I talk to friends, family, etc, about the REAL reason for a lot of things beyond the market itself.

[RawMaterials]

99. Same deal with IRAN n/m

[specimenfred1984]

77. Market Manipulation

with the clear intent to use their large number of contracts traded to corner the market. It literally scares all small traders out of the market, as evidenced by extremely low volume after the previously mentioned 20,000 volume spikes. Once the market manipulators have used their buying power and propaganda to falsely drive the price up, they exit the market and take profits from the very people they lied to.

Because of the low volume following these spikes in volume, I doubt many insiders are hurt by this. It's the unsuspecting public that's "in it for the long-term" that gets taken.

[UpInArms]

62. Morgan Stanley says SEC seeks John Mack (*Co Crony) testimony

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=2006-07-21T150427Z_01_N21440433_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-SEC-MACK-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week asked Morgan Stanley chief John Mack to testify regarding what role he may have played in an insider trading case involving hedge fund Pequot Capital, Morgan Stanley said on Friday.

Morgan Stanley said they were notified of the SEC request on Thursday and the deposition could take place in coming weeks.

"Yesterday, the SEC contacted John Mack and asked that he be interviewed regarding the hedge fund matter that has been widely covered by the media recently," spokeswoman Jeanmarie McFadden said in a statement.

"John immediately responded that he is happy to meet with the commission staff, and he welcomes the opportunity to put to rest any issues surrounding this matter," she added.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

67. background: Ex-SEC Lawyer Sues Commission, Charges Cover-up

http://www1.cchwallstreet.com/ws-portal/content/news/container.jsp?fn=07-19-06

An ex-SEC attorney is suing the Commission, charging that the regulator stopped an insider trading investigation to protect the politically connected CEO of Morgan Stanley.

Gary Aguirre, who was terminated from his position as senior counsel at the Division of Enforcement in September, filed a 45-page lawsuit last week under the Freedom of Information Act. In it, he requests documents related to an investigation he had been conducting prior to his termination. He filed the case in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

Last summer, Aguirre began investigating Pequot Capital Management, a Westport, Ct.-based hedge fund firm, to determine if officials at the firm had been guilty of insider trading. As the investigation progressed, John Mack, a former CEO of Credit Suisse and currently the CEO at Morgan Stanley, began to figure prominently in the case.

But Branch Chief Robert Hanson told Aguirre that it would be difficult to investigate Mack due to his close ties with the Bush administration, he charges in his suit.

“Hanson told Plaintiff that it would be difficult to obtain approval to take Suspect’s testimony because he had powerful political connections. From time to time thereafter, Hanson repeated his statements ... and made similar statements the suspect had ‘political clout’ and the Suspect’s attorneys had ‘juice,’” the lawsuit stated.

...more...

[54anickel]

78. Well, they've certainly been given ample time to "firm up" the story. I'm

sure we'll all be given a "logical" explaination and it will all be put to rest. Nohting to see here, move along.

[wordpix2]

81. "welcomes the opportunity to meet" with SEC---yeah, I'll bet

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

69. 11:36 EST number and "no holding stocks over the w/e" blather

Dow 10,876.79 -51.31 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,023.26 -16.16 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,243.18 -5.95 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 5.024 -0.004 (-0.08%)

NYSE Volume 1,152,977,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,077,697,000

losses do not last long as sellers send buyers back to the sidelines. Adding insult to injury for those investors recently helping tech giants like Intel (INTC 17.35 +0.25), Apple Computer (AAPL 60.69 +0.19) and Yahoo! (YHOO 25.43 +0.16) turn positive after all being down at least 1.4% intraday has been huge volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. The latter has already surpassed 1.0 bln shares (i.e. today is July expiration Friday), nearly 300 mln of which are attributed to MSFT, DELL and INTC alone, which is lending even more conviction behind the lack of enthusiasm for owning stocks with questionable growth prospects over the weekend. DJ30 -51.23 NASDAQ -16.48 SOX -3.5% SP500 -6.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2037/699/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1978/1032/808 mln

11:00 am : Indices bounce of their worst levels as the struggling Tech and Industrials sectors more than halve their recent losses. Meanwhile, the Health Care sector's defensive characteristics are showing up for a fifth straight session and providing some additional support behind recovery efforts. To wit, four of the top 10 S&P industry groups trading higher are tied to the sector. Health Care Distributors (+1.7%) ranks as the day's third second best performer while Biotech is up 1.4% after Amgen (AMGN 66.49 +2.57) topped estimates and raised its FY06 EPS forecasts. Health Care Tech (+1.1%) and Health Care Equipment (+0.5%) are also attracting buyers. DJ30 -25.62 NASDAQ -9.16 SP500 -2.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2097/622/906 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1985/973/702 mln

[skids]

72. Can we start calling it a "suckers rally" yet? n/t

[54anickel]

75. A peek at yesterday's crystal ball

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100110/content.asp?menu=indices&dia=2072006

Hefty losses at Ford Motor Co. weighed on blue chips despite impressive numbers from Apple and Motorola. A drop in Intel earnings highlighted a slowing tech sector. Mixed earnings and tension in the Middle East halted the buying frenzy. However, the upside move will likely continue. The Dow rallied 300 points from it's low; I think that this calls for a corrective move.

Pete Studeman, head trader at Phutures a dot come day trading service, notes that terrorism is still a viable threat. According to Mr. Studemen, Investors continue to be uneasy, and this can only lead to one thing...a Dow plunge to 10700 and eventually 10300. Adding to his bearish view, high levels of inflation and increasing interest rates should create an environment in which stocks can't flourish.

Tomorrow is option expiration; expect choppy action. A close above 11083 in the Dow or 1510 in the Nasdaq confirm a continuation of the bullish move.

Helpful Hints:

July is typically the strongest month of the third quarter for the broad market, but tech stocks tend to struggle during this time. This is because many retirement accounts are beefed up for the second half of the year. On the contrary, this is the beginning of the worst four months of the year. Dow strength occurs at the beginning and end of the month, while sagging in between.

[54anickel]

76. The Dow's Cold Right Shoulder

http://www.kitco.com/ind/wallenwein/jul202006.html

snip>

This path the Dow seems about to take could also be exemplified by another well-known, equally symmetrical configuration (if you only look at the general outline of it). It is a gesture often used as a somewhat untoward, rather impolite form of “waving goodbye,” a crasser, more modern form of saying the same thing as “giving someone the cold shoulder.”

But then, again, chart patterns are not very reliable. They don’t really prove anything. They only underline and highlight certain possibilities, or trends in action.

The current trend for the Dow, after having taken over six full years to just barely touch the same 11,700 level again that it hit back in late 1999 to early 2000, is certainly not “up, up and away.”

snip>

Bernie is proving his fundamental incompetence in matters economic by zig-zagging around the landscape of Fed-speak mumbo-jumbo, seemingly contradicting himself at every other turn. He has no clue what is going on.

Sometimes he talks about inflation being well contained. Other times he warns of it threatening to get out of hand. Then he says not to worry, a downturn in the economy will keep inflation contained.

Wow! Doesn’t that calm your fears as an investor? Just what you wanted to hear, right?

The world still listens, because it is used to regarding his office as the equivalent of the ancient Oracle of Delphi. But traders and investors are beginning to realize that the oracle’s new chairman is likely on some form of crack. (Drug addiction was not uncommon in the oracles of antiquity, either. It helped them attain their altered states in which to utter their prognostications. It seems Bernie is carrying that venerable tradition forward.)

Might as well. In this insane world where news of war and mayhem in the middle east lead to a 200-plus point Dow rally, smoking crack might actually lead to a perfect alignment with how the world already thinks....


more...

[ozone_man]

The gold bugs have their own cold shoulder.

I got a kick out of this. The H&S pattern is waving goodbye for the Dow, but not for gold. :eyes:

Stephen Chan has made the very astute observation that the HUI is following a similar pattern right now. In his most recent article, he pointed out that there is a palpable threat of the HUI’s turning us the cold right shoulder, as well.

But the fundamentals are different in that case.

The HUI is an index of the stock prices of producers of a commodity that constitutes the world’s most suitable and stable form of money, even of wealth itself

[54anickel]

88. Yeah, it's always "different this time" - from either side. Guess I should

have put in the old "Gold-buggy" warning. Haven't bothered doing that here for a long time, I assumed it's become a given.

[54anickel]

91. Bernanke’s Transient Hopes

http://www.merkfund.com/merk-perspective/insights/2006-07-21.html

When Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke was President Bush’s Chief Economic Advisor, he described high oil prices as transitory. Transient they were: they headed higher, not lower. In his testimony before Congress, Bernanke now calls inflationary pressures transitory, predicting they will abate by next year.

Bernanke’s testimony, for the time being, has raised hopes again of a goldilocks economy. And if the economy does not pan out as predicted, he has already indicated that the turmoil in the Middle East would be at fault.

It has become apparent that the economy is slowing down. Homebuilders have been increasingly reporting challenges; home sales and prices have started to fall. Builders of luxury goods such as yachts have warned that even the so-called high-end consumer is cutting expenditures. Even Target, the mass retailer and catering to more affluent consumers has warned it cannot meet its own targets. The message to the Fed is clear: rates are high enough to induce a recession – raising rates any further will cause serious disruptions.

But it has also been very clear that inflation is rising. The cost of transportation and apparel are amongst the leading culprits in pushing the consumer price index (CPI) higher. And while energy prices even helped to reduce the CPI for this report, oil prices were above $70 a barrel before the most recent escalations in the Middle East. Inflation cannot be switched off like a light switch: while inflation has been held back by globalization, it has not been eliminated. As of a few months ago, the processors of raw materials suddenly have some pricing power, and we would expect inflationary indicators to continue to go up.

It comes as no surprise that Bernanke’s testimony was perceived positively by just about all markets: the stock market, the bond market, the gold market; only the dollar fell.

more...

[54anickel]

93. What, me worry?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buss/buss072106.html

The overwhelming feeling right now, it seems, is one of complacency - everywhere. Recessionary forces at work globally, weak stock markets, Russia + China emerging stronger, resource races throughout the world, Middle East war, US quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan, fiscal imbalances galore, gasoline prices in Europe are $7/gallon, global warming... ho hum, what me worry? Dear reader, these are BIG issues and everybody's on a daisy walk through the fields. Or so it seems. Investors seem impervious to the bad news yet the signals, like selling pressure, are increasing and the markets have now started moving lower. Recently gold and silver both took large hits even while oil remained high and war, and rumours of war, in the Middle East seem to be more entrenched despite weak press statements from the G8 and UN. As for recessionary concerns, we have a few items to briefly point out: historical 4 year cycles may be pointing to a stock market low in the Q4 timeframe; despite all the mail to the contrary, we continue to see the USD climbing higher or at least not giving up too much ground until EOY - fundamentals are not spectacular no matter who spins what, but the alternatives of a rising C$ or EUR might depress world economies even more.

Also the idea of central banks now gingerly tipping the rates higher implies recessionary forces sooner rather than later. An interesting long-term graphic is shown whereby global liquidity has been steadily shrinking and the Asia foreign currency reserves look set to stabilize thus any more US deficits or growing imbalances may not necessarily be offset by greater US Treasury purchases from those asian central banks - that game for the US administration may be just about burned out. The reason may be that the Asian economies now feel more at ease to a somewhat stronger local currency as this eases petrol purchase imports (in USDs) and it eases the burden on local lending as interest rates remain lower than in an inflationary environment, i.e the environment of keeping their currency artificially low to aid exports abroad. As said, that game might now be slowing from the asian perspective.

snip>

In conclusion, Bernanke must now juggle all the balls in the air: US consumer, US asset prices, market expectations, higher energy prices, "trust" in the US Dollar towards USD creditors, administration politics and of course the Fed funds rate (FFR)... unfortunately everything seems to be "crumbling" around him. Consumers see a weak economy, asset prices falling, energy + geopolitics are a mess, USD creditors are diversifying, the US administration has never been one to reform or save and the little FFR to solve everything and make the world "good" again? Good luck Ben.

more...

[54anickel]

82. Slower Growth will not Contain Inflation

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff072106.html

When Ben Bernanke told Congress that moderating economic growth will likely contain inflationary pressures, Wall Street responded with its biggest one-day rally in nearly two years. Unfortunately for the Wall Street party boys, the Fed Chairman is likely wrong on both counts. In the first place the U.S. economy will not merely slow, but tumble, in the coming months/years, and rather than quelling inflation's fire, the inevitable recession will actually stoke its flames.

Bernanke's faulty logic assumes that inflation is somehow a by-product of economic growth. However, real economic growth emanates from increased productivity, which tends to hold prices down. Bernanke also dramatically underestimates the strength of the economic headwinds that will quash consumption and crush GDP growth. The rising costs of energy, adjustable rate mortgage payments, rents, insurance, food, and local taxes, combined with the reverse wealth effects associated with collapsing real estate prices will combine to produce a recession much worse than those seen in the last 30 years.

The argument that weaker growth will somehow cause consumer prices to rise more slowly focuses on the demand side of the price equation and ignores the supply side. Prices are a function of both supply and demand, and while slower growth, or an outright recessions, would certainly reduce demand, it would also work to reduce supply. The result could well be equilibrium prices that are higher during a recession than during an expansion.

As the U.S. economy contracts, the Federal budget deficit will grow and the perceived appeal of U.S. financial assets will be lost. As a result, foreign capital will flee at precisely the time it is needed the most. This will put additional upward pressure on interest rates, further increasing mortgage rates, suppressing real estate prices and consumer spending. More importantly, it will also cause the dollar to fall, making imports more expensive and pushing up raw material prices, thereby increasing production costs for domestic manufactures as well. As the dollar loses value relative to other currencies, foreigners will be able to outbid Americans for scarce consumer goods. As a result fewer products will be imported into the U.S. and more of America's domestic production will be exported. Therefore, despite the fact that financially strapped Americans will be consuming much less, they will be paying much higher prices for the privilege of doing so.

Interestingly, in response to a direct question from Congressman Ron Paul, Bernanke actually admitted that growth was unrelated to inflation. Unfortunately, the Congressman missed the opportunity to press Bernanke to explain the inconsistency between that admission and the implication in his prepared remarks that the Fed might pause in its rate hikes based solely on the expectation that a slowing economy would contain inflation.

more...

[wordpix2]

84. 12:34 numbers

Dow 10,880.55 -47.55
Nasdaq 2,024.03 -15.39
S&P 1,243.56 -5.57
10-Yr Note 100.69 -0.03

12:34 PM ET.

[stop the bleeding]

85. 7 minutes later the DJIA is bumping around 10855

@ 12:42pm

[stop the bleeding]

89. just broke through today's low on the DJIA

now trading @ 10845

[Roland99]

90. And still dropping...at least until Faeries are off lunch.

[54anickel]

103. Hey Stop the bleeding, I think they wrote this one just for you

Looks like they are trying to discourage others from using your "techniques" to make a quick buck. Wonder if that means you're onto something. :evilgrin:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/060720/corner.html
Sell, Don't Hedge, To Protect Your Money

That's why option-trading should be left to professionals who have the models and computer programs to execute complex trades.

[stop the bleeding]

105. Thank you

best advice:

The moral of the story: If you're that concerned about a stock going down, just sell it. You'll save yourself a lot of time and money.

I personally will not waste money on buying/selling stock unless it involves a "Covered Call" and that CC has to have a least a 7% return - those were easier to find some time ago but now come on a hit and miss basis.

I strictly buy and sell the options both Puts and Calls depending what direction the market dictates. I wait for the premium to increase in value and then sell them back long before expiration ends.

As stated in up thread I wish I had a Naked Put that was expiring today, but then again with this "down day" it would be a little riskier and therefor a little more stressful.

We stayed out today and will play next week.

thanks again for this and all of the other information that you put up here.

[54anickel]

94. 1:06 numbers and blather catch-up

Dow 10,850.05 -78.05 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq 2,018.09 -21.32 (-1.05%)
S&P 500 1,239.41 -9.72 (-0.78%)
10-yr Bond 5.045 +0.017 (+0.34%)
30-yr Bond 5.10 +0.018 (+0.35%)
NYSE Volume 1,603,374,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,440,841,000

1:00 pm : Indices slip to afternoon lows, spearheaded by further deterioration in Semiconductors (-2.7%). The PHLX Semi Sector Index off 4.7% is at its worst levels of the day; 17 of its 19 components are trading lower, paced by a 13% sell-off in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 18.80 -2.85) which said Q2 revenue surged 53% but fell short of sales targets due to aggressive price cuts from rival Intel (INTC 17.12 +0.01). Other notable chip stocks hitting 52-week lows are ALTR (-4.1%), AMAT (-0.5%), BRCM (-11.8%), KLAC (-3.6%), LLTC (-2.8%), MRVL (-7.0%), NSM (-5.5%), TXN (-4.1%) and XLNX (-5.6%). DJ30 -82.56 NASDAQ -21.38 SOX -4.7% SP500 -9.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2205/665/1.43 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2103/1030/1.12 bln

12:30 pm : Sellers remain in complete control of the action as trading works its way through the New York lunch hour. Not even record Q2 earnings from Nucor (NUE 48.86 -1.28), which is consolidating amid concerns that moderating economic growth may dampen demand for steel, and weakness in the greenback making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive, has been able to incite interest in Materials. The sector, which is again expected to be a large contributor to aggregate earnings growth for the S&P 500, is now turning in the day's worst performance (-1.3%) and has turned negative for the year. DJ30 -54.75 NASDAQ -17.23 SP500 -5.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2170/668/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2091/1012/1.00 bln

12:00 pm : Stocks are extending Thursday's sell-off as more disappointments in tech overshadow an otherwise solid batch of earnings reports.

Early futures indication had been pointing to a slightly higher open after tech bellwether Microsoft (MSFT 23.85 +1.00) closed its fiscal year last night by beating estimates by a penny, boosting its FY07 outlook and rewarding shareholders with a $20 bln buyback. Google (GOOG 389.00 +1.88) more than doubling Q2 profits and countering Yahoo's (YHOO 25.69 +0.42) recent disappointment, also had many thinking that stocks were poised for a bounce in the wake of yesterday's broad-based pullback.

Be that as it may, Dell (DELL 19.19 -2.91) warning that Q2 results will miss Wall Street's estimates, and subsequently plunging 13% to a five-year low, merely made matters worse for a Tech sector already reeling from concerns about growth prospects that continue to force analysts' to lower their estimates for the second half of the year. Not even Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 68.71 -0.37) posting record earnings on 41% year/year growth and raising FY06 revenue forecasts minutes later was enough to offset renewed worries about the pace of a slowdown in economic growth.

Aside from weakness throughout Technology, the absence of leadership from influential areas like Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary are also leaving investors weary of owning stocks over the weekend, especially amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. DJ30 -41.31 DJTA -1.1% NASDAQ -11.52 SOX -3.8% SP500 -4.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2103/704/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2115/962/916 mln

11:30 am : Recent attempts to recoup some of the morning's losses do not last long as sellers send buyers back to the sidelines. Adding insult to injury for those investors recently helping tech giants like Intel (INTC 17.35 +0.25), Apple Computer (AAPL 60.69 +0.19) and Yahoo! (YHOO 25.43 +0.16) turn positive after all being down at least 1.4% intraday has been huge volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. The latter has already surpassed 1.0 bln shares (i.e. today is July expiration Friday), nearly 300 mln of which are attributed to MSFT, DELL and INTC alone, which is lending even more conviction behind the lack of enthusiasm for owning stocks with questionable growth prospects over the weekend. DJ30 -51.23 NASDAQ -16.48 SOX -3.5% SP500 -6.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2037/699/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1978/1032/808 mln



Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 960 (29%) 667 (22%)
Declines 2179 (66%) 2221 (74%)
Unchanged 148 (4%) 109 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 291 (19%) 387 (27%)
Down Vol* 1181 (78%) 993 (71%)
Unch. Vol* 31 (2%) 5 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 35 25
New Lo's 148 223


edit for html

[Roland99]

96. Faeries must have skipped martinis at lunch. Not much post-lunch effect.

[VegasWolf]

98. Exactly, trading choppy and in a tight range. nt

[Roland99]

102. Oh, there they are. They were just stuck in traffic on the way back.

DJIA 10,891.04, -37.06, -0.3%
NASDAQ 2,023.88, -15.54, -0.8%
S%P 1,242.89, -6.24, -0.5%

[54anickel]

101. Here they come - 1:56

Dow 10,889.61 -38.49 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,023.75 -15.67 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 1,243.04 -6.09 (-0.49%)
10-yr Bond 5.051 +0.023 (+0.46%)
30-yr Bond 5.104 +0.022 (+0.43%)
NYSE Volume 1,835,099,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,630,955,000


1:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the downside. The site of red figures today, however, is nothing new since all three of the major averages have been in negative territory since the open. Losses have been extended throughout the session as there has been a conspicuous lack of leadership all day. With today's decline, the S&P 500 has returned to a losing position on a year-to-date basis. DJ30 -65.15 NASDAQ -20.19 SP500 -8.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2234/667/1.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2253/917/1.21 bln

1:00 pm : Indices slip to afternoon lows, spearheaded by further deterioration in Semiconductors (-2.7%). The PHLX Semi Sector Index off 4.7% is at its worst levels of the day; 17 of its 19 components are trading lower, paced by a 13% sell-off in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 18.80 -2.85) which said Q2 revenue surged 53% but fell short of sales targets due to aggressive price cuts from rival Intel (INTC 17.12 +0.01). Other notable chip stocks hitting 52-week lows are ALTR (-4.1%), AMAT (-0.5%), BRCM (-11.8%), KLAC (-3.6%), LLTC (-2.8%), MRVL (-7.0%), NSM (-5.5%), TXN (-4.1%) and XLNX (-5.6%). Teradyne (TER 12.26 +0.36), which swung to a profit in Q2, is the only component aside from Intel that is trading higher. DJ30 -82.56 NASDAQ -21.38 SOX -4.7% SP500 -9.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2205/665/1.43 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2103/1030/1.12 bln

12:30 pm : Sellers remain in complete control of the action as trading works its way through the New York lunch hour. Not even record Q2 earnings from Nucor (NUE 48.86 -1.28), which is consolidating amid concerns that moderating economic growth may dampen demand for steel, and weakness in the greenback making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive, has been able to incite interest in Materials. The sector, which is again expected to be a large contributor to aggregate earnings growth for the S&P 500, is now turning in the day's worst performance (-1.3%) and has turned negative for the year. DJ30 -54.75 NASDAQ -17.23 SP500 -5.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2170/668/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2091/1012/1.00 bln

[54anickel]

104. Side of 2:00 blather

2:00 pm : Market regains some upside momentum since the last update, but market breadth remains decidedly negative. On the Dow, CAT, DD and XOM recently turning positive, along with General Motors (GM 29.45 +0.90) spiking 3% higher within the last few minutes, have helped the price-weighted index halve its recent losses. However, decliners still outpace advancers on the NYSE, as well as the Nasdaq, by at least a 2-to-1 margin while a more than 3-to-1 ratio of down to up volume at both reflects even more of a bearish bias and the market's struggles to get a good thing going.DJ30 -32.98 NASDAQ -15.19 SP500 -5.64 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2245/690/1.64 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2200/981/1.31 bln

[VegasWolf]

106. That's funny reporting. XOM has been in a long slide down all day. I've

just been waiting for a quick scalp.

[stop the bleeding]

110. now it is at it's lows for the day

maybe the bump will come before 3:30pm

[VegasWolf]

111. Don't know. I for one do not want to go long into the weekend at this

time!!! No telling what the cokehead will do over the weekend.

[VegasWolf]

100. The EUR/USD starting to look like a greenback firesale? nt

[VegasWolf]

107. 2:40. Bollinger bands so tight that you couldn't squeeze Ann Coulter

through them.

[54anickel]

109. WHY ARE AMERICANS SO ANGRY? - PART II (Ron Paul)

About midway down the page....
http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1152818539.php

Short wars, with well-defined victories, are tolerated by the American people even when they are misled as to the reasons for the war. Wars entered into without a proper declaration tend to be politically motivated and not for national security reasons. These wars, by their very nature, are prolonged, costly, and usually require a new administration to finally end them.

This certainly was true with the Korean and Vietnam wars. The lack of a quick military success, the loss of life and limb, and the huge economic costs of lengthy wars precipitate anger. This is overwhelmingly true when the war propaganda that stirred up illegitimate fears is exposed as a fraud. Most soon come to realize the promise of guns and butter is an illusion. They come to understand that inflation, a weak economy, and a prolonged war without real success are the reality.

The anger over the Iraq war is multifaceted. Some are angry believing they were lied to in order to gain their support at the beginning. Others are angry that the forty billion dollars we spend every year on intelligence gathering failed to provide good information. Proponents of the war too often are unable to admit the truth. They become frustrated with the progress of the war and then turn on those wanting to change course, angrily denouncing them as unpatriotic and un-American.

Those accused are quick to respond to the insulting charges made by those who want to fight on forever without regard to casualties. Proponents of the war do not hesitate to challenge the manhood of war critics, accusing them of wanting to cut and run. Some war supporters ducked military service themselves while others fought and died, only adding to the anger of those who have seen battle up close and now question our campaign in Iraq.

When people see a $600 million embassy being built in Baghdad, while funding for services here in the United States is hard to obtain, they become angry. They can't understand why the money is being spent, especially when they are told by our government that we have no intention of remaining permanently in Iraq.

The bickering and anger will not subside soon, since victory in Iraq is not on the horizon and a change in policy is not likely either.

more....

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

112. "Tolerating" war.

Sad.

[54anickel]

113. What are they thinking?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/vaneeden/vaneeden072106.html

On Wednesday the stock market in the US rallied because Ben Bernanke indicated that he might not push for higher interest rates. Two weeks ago the market rallied because of weak retail sales numbers (see previous Commentary, "When bad news is good news, all news is bad news"). This market is dangerous: investors are desperately searching for good news.

When weak retail sales figures and the Fed Chairman's comments that he sees the economy slowing are interpreted as good news for stocks, then you know it is time to get out of the market.

Rising interest rates make bond yields attractive, putting downward pressure on stocks. Stock prices then have to decline so that dividend yields can again become competitive against bond yields. The opposite occurs when interest rates fall: bonds become unattractive relative to stocks and stock prices rally. So when investors think interest rates will not rise any further they infer that stocks may become relatively more attractive and the result is a stock market rally. Those investors who are currently buying stocks believe interest rates have stopped rising and are betting that economic growth will continue.

But if interest rates are not going to rise any further because of a risk that the economy will slow down, what will happen to corporate earnings? Even though average price to earnings ratios for US equities have come down over the past five years, there is now considerable risk that earnings declines could occur going forward. Declining earnings will cause stock prices to decline as well.

more...

[VegasWolf]

114. Wednesday certainly turned out to be an outlier data point. It should

be thrown away so as to not falsely affect the mean.

[Roland99]

115. "investors are desperately searching for good news."

Gee...that sounds familiar. I've only been saying that for quite a while.

We're on the downslope of that receding valuation wave.

[mike923]

119. People are searching for the best place to put their money...

if it appears that interest rates are going to rise, they will pull their investments from the market, and put them in places to take advantage of the higher interest rates.

If it looks like rates are going to fall, they remove money from those places, and put them in the next safest place in conjunction with return. That's often times the stock markets.

This thread, by its nature being in a political message board, looks for the angle on any current event in relationship to politics. This is often a stretch, but especially so on the market. The market is not a political scoreboard, or even a 100% true indicator on the economy.

[VegasWolf]

117. I'm outta here today. I just watched a pro trader make 3 bad calls in

a row. Market way too choppy! Have a nice weekend all!

[Roland99]

118. Enjoy!

:toast:

[54anickel]

120. Treasurys close lower after quiet session

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7BFDE2B9E5-2C94-422E-8721-9018F481252F%7D&keyword=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices closed lower Friday, pushing yields above their recent lows, as investors took a break from a recent rally sparked by varied events that led many to conclude that the Federal Reserve may be on the verge of halting in its rate tightening program.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note closed down 3/32 at 100 20/32 with a yield of 5.044%, up from 5.026% at Thursday's close. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The 30-year long-bond ended down 8/32 at 90 28/32 with a yield of 5.101%.

The 2-year note was 1/32 lower at 100 3/32 with a yield of 5.080% at the close of trade.

With no economic reports on tap Friday, the fixed-income market was left to mull events which took place earlier in the week.

snip>

In an interesting switch in stance, he revealed that future policy decisions would take into account economic forecasts. In the past, Bernanke has said rate decisions would be driven heavily by data, which reveal past events.

more...

[stop the bleeding]

123. have a safe weekend everyone

keep the ME in your thoughts

:hi:

[Roland99]

125. Closing numbers:

DJIA 10,868.38 -59.72 -0.55%
Nasdaq 2,020.39 -19.03 -0.93%
S&P 500 1,240.29 -8.84 -0.71%
Dow Util 428.02 +0.60 +0.14%
NYSE 7,953.14 -54.39 -0.68%
AMEX 1,891.87 -5.67 -0.30%
Russell 2000 671.94 -11.67 -1.71%
Semcond 384.88 -19.25 -4.76%
Gold future 620.20 -12.30 -1.94%
30-Year Bond 5.10% +0.02 +0.41%
10-Year Bond 5.05% +0.02 +0.34%

[54anickel]

126. And the yada (was just checking back to see if someone closed up

shop for the weekend) :hi:

Volumes weren't too shabby either
NYSE Volume 2,765,214,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,409,286,000



4:20 pm : What was shaping up overnight to be a healthy rebound in the wake of Thursday's broad-based pullback never even got off the ground, as more disappointments in the struggling tech sector overshadowed a batch of earnings reports that on balance were better than analysts anticipated.

Early futures indications were pointing to a slightly higher open after tech bellwether Microsoft (MSFT 23.87 +1.02) closed its fiscal year last night by beating estimates by a penny, boosting its FY07 outlook and rewarding shareholders with a $20 bln buyback. Google (GOOG 390.10 +2.98) more than doubling Q2 profits, and countering Yahoo's (YHOO 25.89 +0.62) recent disappointment, also had many thinking that stocks were poised for a bounce following yesterday's sell-off.

Dell (DELL 19.91 -2.19), though, changed the mood in a hurry with a warning that it was going to miss Wall Street's second quarter estimates. Dell's stock plunged 13% to a five-year low, and merely made matters worse for a Tech sector already reeling from concerns about growth prospects that continue to force analysts to lower their estimates for the second half of the year. At its lows, Dell was down 18%, losing nearly $9 bln off its market cap and, despite being only one fifth the size of Microsoft, which provides the software for its PCs, had the last word in driving the market and contributing to the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing lower for a third straight week.

Not even Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 68.33 -0.75) posting record earnings on 41% year/year growth, and raising FY06 revenue forecasts minutes later, was enough to offset renewed worries about the pace of a slowdown in economic growth. Tech also took a hit from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 18.31 -3.34), which plummeted 15% to a 52-week low after its Q2 earnings merely matched downwardly revised estimates and the market viewed its relatively rosy forecast with some skepticism. AMD's loss helped push the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index to its lowest point in 14 months. Aside from weakness throughout Technology, the absence of leadership from influential sectors like Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary also left buyers on the sidelines waiting for a short-term bottom to form before getting back into a market focused more on the negatives (i.e. moderating economic growth) than the positives (i.e. possible pause in Fed tightening).

Health Care, however, traded higher for a fifth straight session, getting a boost after Amgen (AMGN 66.15 +2.23) topped estimates and raised its FY06 EPS forecasts. However, modest interest in a number of defensive-oriented areas like Biotech and Pharmaceuticals merely underscored the market's sense of reserve to own more non-cyclical names over the weekend.

Separately, fed funds futures early in the day were pricing in as little as a 35% chance of a hike on August 8th and are now pricing in a 45% likelihood, which is still significantly dismissing the possibility of more tightening. Nonetheless, the expectations that slowing economic growth -- a catalyst for selling stocks over the last two sessions -- will keep inflation contained, typically a positive for Treasuries, were not realized Friday, as bond traders looked past growing uncertainty in the Middle East and also took some profits. Two consecutive days of gains had pushed the 10-year yield to a six-week low Thursday. DJ30 -59.72 DJTA -0.8% DJUA +0.1% DOT -0.8% NASDAQ -19.03 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -1.6% SOX -4.8% SP400 -1.5% SP500 -8.84 XOI -1.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2191/815/2.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2129/1123/1.92 bln

3:30 pm : Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session as buying interest remains scarce across the board. Among the few areas garnering some attention going into the weekend are a number of Health Care-related industry groups (e.g. Biotech +1.8%, Distributors +1.5%) and Tobacco (+0.7%), as Altria Group (MO 79.69 +0.60) hits a new all-time high. However, interest in a number of defensive-oriented areas merely underscores the market's widespread nervousness. DJ30 -60.04 NASDAQ -19.02 SP500 -8.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2248/726/2.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2211/1013/1.65 bln

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1117 (32%) 778 (24%)
Declines 2142 (63%) 2220 (70%)
Unchanged 134 (3%) 137 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 580 635 (26%)
Down Vol* -2146 1702 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 24 72 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 43 31
New Lo's 167 275

[UpInArms]

127. just had to post the "weekly recap" blather

- or as much as is available - the "more" button doesn't seem to work :eyes:

(I had to go and see for myself that there is no consumer confidence - and, no, there isn't any - if anyone is curious)

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Weekly Recap - Week ending 21-Jul-06

The stock market was schizophrenic this week. It loved the Fed, it hated the Fed. It loved the earnings reports, it hated the earnings reports. Not surprisingly, the indices ended mixed for the week. Ultimately though, the fundamentals improved.

The market opened the week with a mixed day on Monday. The S&P lost 2 points, but the Nasdaq and Dow were up. The market was looking forward to the PPI and CPI data later in the week and the flood of earnings reports that would start after the close on Monday. Good earnings news before the open from Citigroup and Harley-Davidson had little broad impact.

Tuesday was another day of a holding pattern. The S&P regained the 2 points it had lost the day before. The June core PPI came in at a comfortable 0.2%. That was in line with expectations and did not cause concern. Earnings reports were generally good. Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, and United Technologies in particular posted good numbers.

Wednesday the market busted loosed. Before the open, the June core CPI was reported to have jumped 0.3% for the fourth straight month. The year-over-year increase rose to 2.6%. The data raised inflation concerns and the S&P futures dropped sharply. The conclusion was that the Fed would probably have to raise rates again in August to counter building inflationary pressures. Fed funds futures priced in a high probability of a rate hike.

Then Bernanke testified before Congress at 10:00 ET. His testimony turned that logic on its head. Bernanke said that the core personal consumption (PCE) deflator, which does not include the rental...(no more available as link doesn't work)

[54anickel]

128. and showing an astounding flair and finese in the art of verbal

intervention, Chopper Ben's words invoked a huge rally taking the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P up 1.96%, 1.83% and 1.86% (with a little help from teh repo department). Ahh, but alas the Fed ran out of ammunition not only on Thursday, but Friday as well, giving up the Chopper Popper from Wednesday. Traders decided that with the unrest in the Middle East it might not be such a good weekend to be holding stock afterall.


Guess that's why they decided to break the link to more.....what more is there to say? :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

129. Bwahahaha - the "more" was worth checking back for. Looks like

things are looking up for the long-term, even setting up for a year-end rally! And now, for the rest of the story.....


Then Bernanke testified before Congress at 10:00 ET. His testimony turned that logic on its head. Bernanke said that the core personal consumption (PCE) deflator, which does not include the rental equivalency measure for housing costs, was a better measure of inflation than the core CPI. It has been up 0.2% each of the past two months and the year-over-year gain is only at 1.9%.

Furthermore, Bernanke indicated that the Fed expects core inflation to ease in 2007. That implies the Fed might be willing to wait for the impact of the previous rate hikes to take effect, and not feel the need to raise rates right now. Fed funds futures plunged as expectations of an August rate hike dropped sharply.

Bernanke clearly indicated a more dovish stance towards policy and the 23 point surge in the S&P 500 index that day was justified on that basis.

Earnings reports also helped, as IBM, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and UnitedHealth Group posted good numbers. Yahoo, however, gave a soft outlook and the stock was hit.

Thursday, the market shifted personality again. The release of the June FOMC minutes did not reflect as dovish a stance as Bernanke had done the day before. The market became concerned that the Fed might indeed raise rates in August. It is not clear why the market would place so much emphasis on minutes that are now many weeks old when the Fed Chairman had spoken on policy the day before. Nevertheless, the market was near flat at mid-day but sold off after the release of the minutes to end with an 11 point loss on the S&P 500 index.

Also hurting the Nasdaq that day was a disappointing report and outlook from Intel. Apple and Motorola had excellent reports, but Intel's numbers were more influential.

Friday the S&P 500 lost another 9 points. A major factor was a warning from Dell that second quarter profits would be lower than expected. There was probably also some risk-event selling ahead of the weekend given the continuing conflict in the Middle East. As to the Fed outlook, fed funds futures ended the day with a 45% chance of a rate hike at the August meeting built into the price structure.

Earnings overall this week were good. The best numbers came from Dow firms such as Coca-Cola, Citigroup, Caterpillar, Honeywell, IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, and United Technologies. Even Pfizer posted good numbers. As a result, the Dow had a strong week and advanced 1.2%.

There was far greater concern in the tech sector. Intel, Dell, and Yahoo gave cautious to poor outlooks. These key companies overrode the impact from good earnings from some companies such as Apple and Google. The broader technology picture is of concern, while some companies remain in growth mode. The Nasdaq took it on the chin again this week.

Overall, however, the market enters the latter stage of earnings season on a sounder footing. There is no reason to doubt the veracity of Bernanke's testimony. He clearly represented a less hawkish stance than the market had assumed at the start of the week. Earnings are coming in better than expected (as usual) and warnings are far less prevalent than feared. Economic growth is clearly slowing, so many companies will have trouble posting good earnings numbers the second half of the year. That should not be surprising.

The near-term outlook remains mixed, and perhaps even dicey for the tech sector, but the longer-term outlook is improving. The market is coming to grips with the reality that earnings growth will have to slow down in the quarters ahead. The end of the rate hike cycle is clearly nearing. And valuation measures have improved significantly.

The crisis in the Middle East remains an important wild card, but at least oil prices came off their highs to end near $74 a barrel. The market faces another week of heavy earnings reports, and individual companies that warn will get slammed. The foundations for a year-end rally, however, may be falling into place.

[Roland99]

130. Nevermind mixed and disappointing earnings, war in the mideast, inflation

continuing at too-high a pace for the Fed, the "fundamentals improved".


:wtf:

[JNelson6563]

131. Astounding, isn't it?

I was out of town most of the week and have been amazed at the glances I caught of market action. The more I read the articles posted in the SWTs of last week the more stunned I am. Seems to be an "economist" these days one must be blind in one eye and have no peripheral in the other.

Catch you Marketeers tomorrow! :hi:

Julie