Gallup: Voters Seem Ready for a Change of Scenery (Dems Lead 54% to 38%)

[Mark E. Smith]

Many Indicators Point to Democratic Strength in Midterms

Gallup News service

PRINCETON, NJ - According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted June 23-24, 2006, the Democrats now lead the Republicans 54% to 38% as the preferred party of registered voters in this fall's congressional elections.

This 16-point Democratic advantage ties with a mid-March Gallup survey for the widest Democratic lead in the 2006 elections for Congress since Gallup started measuring voter support last fall. It is slightly greater than the average 12-point lead the Democrats have held across the nine Gallup "generic ballot" measures conducted since the start of the year.

The difficulties ahead for the GOP in this election are underscored by voters' sour reaction to rewarding the current membership of Congress with another term. Only 38% of registered voters today say that most members of Congress deserve to be reelected. This is down from 42% in January, and is the lowest level of support for incumbents seen on this measure since November 1994 -- just before the transformational election which swept the Democratic majority out of power.

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=23509

[still_one]

1. polls are worthless unless we have a good voter turnout

and are assured that the voting is accurate

[lonestarnot]

2. Not according to big Candy and little wolfie.

[goclark]

8. Yep, Big Chunk Candy said it will be a "struggle" for Democrats

because the polls are coming up for Bush.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. These numbers look great, but.....

I wonder how this breaks down district by district. While the generic ballot numbers are encouraging, people rarely think that their representative is the problem.

[bluestateguy]

5. Republican districts are more efficient

Democrats have all of the inner city districts, that vote 80% or more Democratic. That concentrates Democratic votes into fewer districts. Republicans, on the other hand, have more districts that are 55%-60% Republican, thus spreading out their votes more efficiently.

[Kolesar]

7. True in gerrymandered Ohio, but not all states,

In states that are controlled by Democrats, it can be gerrymandered the other way. Texas was run by Democrats and the districting used to be favorable to the Dems.

[bluestateguy]

4. That's better

I was getting worried about those polls showing the lead slipping to 8-10 points.

[gully]

6. Great news, I hope it translates into state by state results.

Thanks.

[Scout1071]

9. And Bush wants to start talking about Social Security again? Bring it on!

[usregimechange]

10. esp if you donate here:

[LaCrosseDem]

11. this is why the Republicans are working so hard on voter supression

It's the only way they win... but it works for them every time.

[ShockediSay]

12. Wait'll you run into the gerrymandering, the vote suppression

(supported by data mining and warrantless wiretapping) and the crooked voting machines.

[mvd]

13. It's great to see the trend staying so steady

Now we need it to influence things locally..

[Rex]

14. By election night, those numbers will be 47% to 45%

just too close to call it. Those funny exit polls. Just the data readout from a hardrive...and ding we have a winner! Guess who!

[Cookie wookie]

15. If the numbers hold stead, we may

have a way to beat the electronic vote stealing machines if we can get out the numbers. We have to beat them in every way, as voter suppression is high on their list (Justice Dept just approved the voter ID in Georgia which with so little time before the primaries is going to be a nightmare).

According to the recent report, "The Machinery of Democracy: Protecting Elections in an Electronic World," by the Brennan Center (http://www.brennancenter.org), big differences in the numbers will be hard for those who are planning on stealing elections with electronic voting to do and hide it. It's worth reading the report, as it sums up everything that's been said by technologists (and us "tin foil hatters") about the serious security vulnerabilities of the top three electronic voting systems.

It's up to us to get everyone we know out to vote in primaries, if your state hasn't held them yet, and then again in November. If we have the will, we can do it.

From the study:
"- All three voting systems have significant security and reliability vulnerabilities, which pose a real danger to the integrity of national, state, and local elections.

<snip>

- When the goal is to change the outcome of a close statewide election, attacks that involve the insertion of Software Attack Programs or other corrupt software are the least difficult attacks."(p. 3)