STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 15 June

[ozymandius]

Thursday June 15, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 951 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2000 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1700 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1661
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 14, 2006

Dow... 10,816.92 +110.78 (+1.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,086.00 +13.53 (+0.65%)
S&P 500... 1,230.04 +6.35 (+0.52%)
Gold future... 566.50 -0.30 (-0.05%)
30-Year Bond 5.09% +0.08 (+1.50%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.05% +0.09 (+1.79%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME

Since Bernanke took the helm from Alan Greenspan he has been flip-flopping back and forth from hawk to dove. He began hawkish, reversed course back in April, and has become hawkish once again. Many commentators point out that Bernanke is “between a rock and a hard place” with the effects of interest rates and the economy and stock market. If he continues to raise interest rates he would crush an already slowing housing market, but if he finishes this rate cycle, the dollar stands to deteriorate even further.

Bernanke must choose the lesser of two evils: fight inflation and save the dollar, or save the economy and housing market at the risk of rising inflation. It appears that Bernanke is unsure of which to choose based upon his flip-flopping between dove and hawk. The Fed has an excellent track record of going too far as their interest rate raising has a delayed effect on the economy and ends up pushing the economy into a recession and sending the markets into a correction. This tug of war between identities has had a clear impact on the markets as the markets themselves appear to stage a rally that falters and can’t seem to get any legs under it.

To see the Fed’s record in action please review my previous article, “Caution is warranted!” back in April. When looking at the previous eight business cycles since 1957, on average the Fed Funds rate peaked four months before the business cycle did and the S&P 500 peaked three and a half months before the peak of the interest rate cycle. My conclusion at the end of the article was that based on the Fed’s record of going too far and the anticipatory action of the markets to correct prior to the end of the interest rate cycle coupled with the late stage rate cycle we are in, that “Caution is Warranted.”

-cut-

Bernanke’s wavering at the helm is causing many to bail out of the markets, and what worries me is that Bernanke’s indecisiveness or pushing rates too far will cause those still in the markets to jump ship and really send the markets lower and the economy into a recession. It could be that he is deliberately flip-flopping to shake out excess speculation in the markets and to bring down commodities and commodity related stocks to use as evidence that inflation is under control, to give himself credibility to go on pause, or end the string of rate hikes. Everything is up in the air until we know where he is going at the upcoming Fed meeting. Until then, expect uncertainty which should aid to health care sector’s relative performance.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Binka]

2. Ben Is Between A Rock And A Hard On

I bet he saves the dollar.

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning Binka.

:donut:

How are things with you?

:hi:

[Binka]

10. Good It Is A Beautiful Day Here And My Kids Ian & Callie Are Coming

to Sicily in August. I am very happy because I have spent little time with them because of Ben. They are 22 & 20 so they only want me when it is time for $$$$$$ but I love & miss them anyway! LOL! Ben is healing up nicely and he calls at least once a week now. It used to be MONTHS! Now if Ben B and the Fed would get our economy in order I would be really happy!

How are you?

[UpInArms]

22. hiya, Binka!

Glad to see you this morning :hi:

Also, am glad that your son is getting better :D

:hug:

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/10
Briefing Forecast 330K
Market Expects 320K
Prior 302K

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Jun
Briefing Forecast 17.0
Market Expects 11.0
Prior 12.4

9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Apr
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior $69.8B

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization May
Briefing Forecast 82.0%
Market Expects 82.0%
Prior 81.9%

9:15 AM Industrial Production May
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.8%

12:00 PM Philadelphia Fed Jun
Briefing Forecast 12.5
Market Expects 11.0
Prior 14.4

[stop the bleeding]

32. Morning everyone - I am not familar with any of these reports

Are any these inflationary reports or ones that could move the market up or down? Sorry to bother y'all on these, but if they are important maybe a brief explanation why would be good.

:)

Thank you in advance

[UpInArms]

36. g'morning, stb!

here's a place where you can find more info on the daily economic reports

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

there are clickable links for many of them that describe the significance and whether they are timely in their ability to move the markets.

The Net Foreign Purchases report's significance is described in today's dollar watch post - it is definitely a mover for the dollar

The NY Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Fed reports give a fairly current read on what is happening within specific districts - but since they are specific, unless they mirror each other, they do tend to be ignored

Usually, the Initial Claims report is read as "good" by the markets if there are lots of claims (kind of backwards, imho)

The Capacity Utilization and the Industrial Production, since they are for May, tend to be ignored because they are for the past month - see the comment for the Philly Fed and the NY Empire - so the market ignores the current and the past (really stoopid)

Hope that helps!

:hi:

[Roland99]

40. More unemployment claims than expected. Less consumer spending =

Higher Stock Prices! WHEE!!

[stop the bleeding]

50. Beyond helpful you are yes,

my yodaease kicks in when I am in the presence of superior knowledge, I am bowing down before you - ohmmmmmmmm, ohmmmmmmmm, ohmmmmmmm

I can not say it enough, you, Ozy, Roland, Ghost Dog, 54 Nickle are bricks in my foundation of trading.

Thank you once again;)

[Ghost Dog]

62. Jacqueline Lee Bouvier

http://www.whitehouse.gov/history/firstladies/jk35.html

Sorry, it's been three days, now.

Still feeling this: http://jfkmurdersolved.com/zapruder.htm

Truth.

/Mad Dog...

[UpInArms]

44. 8:30 Reports in:

8:29 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO 4-MONTH LOW

8:29 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 15,000 TO 2.425MLN

8:29 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. INITIAL CLAIMS FALL 12,250 TO 315.750

8:29 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 8,000 TO 295,000

8:30 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 52.9 VS 43.1 IN MAY

8:30 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 21.8 VS 16.2 IN MAY

8:30 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 5.1 VS 9.7 IN MAY

8:30 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE INDEX WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS 12.5

8:30 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. JUNE EMPIRE STATE INDEX 29.0 VS REV 12.9 IN MAY

[UpInArms]

45. U.S. weekly jobless claims drop 8,000 to 295,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7CC420FF%2D7F8B%2D449D%2D887C%2D953D045B32D5%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time applications for state unemployment benefits dropped by 8,000 to 295,000 in the week ending June 10, the Labor Department said Thursday. It's the lowest level of new claims since mid-February. Initial claims have fallen by 42,000 in the past two weeks. The four-week average of new claims dropped by 12,250 to 315,750, the lowest in six weeks. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment checks climbed by 15,000 to 2.425 million in the week ending June 3. It's the highest level of continuing claims in six weeks.

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. June Empire State index jumps to 29.0 vs rev 12.9 May

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B189AD181%2DC18E%2D427B%2D95A5%2D54E27A7DFC10%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area surged in June, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index jumped to 29.0 in June from a revised 12.9 in May. The increase was well above expectations. Economists were expecting the index to inch higher to 12.5 from the initial estimate last month of 12.4. New orders, shipments and unfilled orders were well above May levels. The prices paid index rose again while the index for number of employees fell for the third straight month.

[UpInArms]

49. more info (check out prices paid!)

excerpt:

New orders jumped to 25.8 points in June from 16.2 in May.

The indexes for shipments and unfilled orders also jumped higher.

Inflation indexes strengthened.

The prices-paid index rose to 52.9 points in June from 43.1 in May.

Despite the increased activity, the factory job market weakened for the third straight month, with the employee index falling to 5.1 points in June from 9.7 in May. The average workweek index rose to 11.3 points from 9.4.

The index of activity in the next six months showed continued optimism. The future general business condition index rose to 33.7 in June from 30.2 in May.

Inflation expectations also rose in June to 62.5 from 59.4 in the previous month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. US April capital inflows slip to $46.7 bln (Ruh-Roh!!!)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-15T130250Z_01_TRT000137_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CAPITAL-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 15 (Reuters) - Net inflows of capital into and out of U.S. assets tumbled to a much smaller-than-expected $46.7 billion in April, well short of the nation's trade deficit in that month, a Treasury Department report showed on Thursday.

Analysts were expecting net capital flows of $67.5 billion. The U.S. trade deficit swelled to $63.4 billion in April as oil prices rose to historical highs.

[UpInArms]

52. More Info: U.S. capital flows fall sharply to $46.7 billion in April

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B6B68FC76%2D04D3%2D49D7%2DB561%2D08AFD9291292%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Capital flows into the U.S. fell sharply to $46.7 billion in April as private investors sold Treasury bonds and notes and bought fewer equities, the Treasury Department said Thursday.

But central banks and other official foreign institutions bought $10.7 billion in Treasurys, more than reversing March's sales of $6.3 billion.

Private investors sold $7.4 billion in Treasury bonds and notes in April, the Treasury data show.

Foreign private investors bought $3.2 billion in U.S. equities in April, down from the $17.5 billion they bought in March and the $17.1 billion purchased in February.

...more...

China and Japan are still propping up this dying economy.

[UpInArms]

53. U.S. May industrial output down 0.1%, first drop since Jan.

9:15 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. MAY CAPACITY UTILIZATION 81.7% VS 81.9% IN APRIL

9:15 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DECLINE FIRST SINCE JAN.

9:15 AM ET 6/15/06 U.S. MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1% VS UP 0.2 FORECAST

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B353CCBC4%2D40D9%2D41FA%2DBAA2%2D493C375FA0B6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in May, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. This is the first decline since January. Capacity utilization fell to 81.7% in May from 81.9% in the previous month. This is the first decline in capacity since January. Economists were expecting production to rise 0.2% in June and for capacity utilization to hold steady. Production is up 4.3% in the past 12 months. April production rose 0.8%, unrevised from the initial estimate. Manufacturing output fell 0.1% in May. Output of utilities rose 0.2%.

[UpInArms]

56. more info: (fall related to auto plants closings)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-15T132039Z_01_N15400432_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PRODUCTION-URGENT.XML

excerpt:

Wall Street economists polled by Reuters were expecting growth in industrial production to rise by 0.2 percent in May after an April increase of 0.8 percent.

Industrial capacity use dipped to 81.7 percent in May from 81.9 percent in April. Analysts were expecting May capacity use to edge up to 82.0 percent.

Driving a durable goods production decline of 0.2 percent in May was a 1.3 percent fall in the output of motor vehicles and parts, the Fed report said. The annualized rate for motor vehicle assembly fell to 11.25 million vehicles from 11.73 million in April.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

68. DOE NatGas Inventories Report:

10:31 AM ET 6/15/06 NATURAL GAS IN STORAGE UP 77 BCF IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

[UpInArms]

72. June Philly Fed @ 13.1 vs 14.4 in May

12:01 PM ET 6/15/06 JUNE PHILLY FED PRICES RECEIVED 14.0 VS. 10.3

12:01 PM ET 6/15/06 JUNE PHILLY FED NEW ORDERS 17.7 VS. 2.7

12:01 PM ET 6/15/06 JUNE PHILLY FED PRICES PAID 48.7 VS. 55.3

12:00 PM ET 6/15/06 JUNE PHILLY FED 13.1 VS. 11.8 EXPECTED

12:00 PM ET 6/15/06 JUNE PHILLY FED FALLS TO 13.1 VS. 14.4 IN MAY

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices rise for second day

SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures rose for a second day Thursday after a report out of the United States showed domestic crude stocks suffered a larger-than-expected fall as U.S. refineries boosted production rates to meet peak summer fuel demand.

Light, sweet crude for the July contract rose 36 cents to $69.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 58 cents Wednesday to $69.14 a barrel.

The Department of Energy reported Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 900,000 barrels last week to 345.7 million barrels.

The report also showed that refiners increased run rates by 1.7 percentage points to 92.7 percent of capacity — the highest level since hurricanes slammed into the Gulf Coast in 2005.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Constellation Energy gas business files for IPO

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. power company Constellation Energy Group Inc. (NYSE:CEG - news) said on Wednesday it will sell part of a natural gas exploration and production business in an initial public offering in an attempt to take advantage of high gas prices.

The business, Constellation Energy Resources LLC, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to sell up to 6.05 million common units representing Class B limited liability company interests in the IPO.

Citigroup and Lehman Brothers are underwriting the IPO. The sale of the common units is expected to generate proceeds of $109.6 million assuming an IPO price of $20 per unit, Constellation Energy Resources said in its filing.

more

[ozymandius]

7. US oil back at $70 as commodities extend turnaround

Commodity prices on Thursday extended their turnaround that started late in the previous session as the sector looked to claw back some of the losses incurred earlier in the week.

-cut-

Gold jumped $16 to $574.00 a troy ounce, and silver moved above $10 a troy ounce after spending the past two sessions below this level.

Copper prices added $80 to $6,710 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, and aluminium moved back above its key support level of $2,500 a tonne.

more

[UpInArms]

23. Gasoline prices spark new shot of inflation

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060615/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

WASHINGTON - Surging gasoline prices helped trigger another big increase in consumer inflation in May, and one closely watched price gauge rose at the fastest pace in 11 years.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent last month, in line with expectations, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up a worse-than-expected 0.3 percent.

Private economists said the latest news on inflation virtually guaranteed a 17th straight interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the end of this month based on recent comments by Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues that they are determined to combat rising price pressures.

Wall Street, however, greeted the latest report with relief because it did not paint an even worse picture on inflation. Much of the rise in non-energy costs was blamed on a statistical quirk in how the government measures shelter costs.

<snip>

All energy prices were up 2.4 percent in May and have risen at an annual rate of 30.8 percent through May, nearly double the 17.1 percent rise for all of last year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Answers from Brazil: The New Fuel That Will Shape the Future

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/43806

Until recently, Brazil was better known for soccer and carnival than for leading the world into the future of energy consumption. But now Brazil is also famous for what might be called its "sweet gold." "Sweet" as in sugarcane, "gold" as in a fuel to replace "black gold" -- oil.

About three decades ago, Brazil decided to use its overabundance of sugarcane to decrease its overdependence on foreign oil. It created an industry of sugarcane-based ethanol, a grain alcohol fuel. That effort kicked into high gear a few years ago, when "flex-fuel" vehicles that can run on up to 100 percent sugarcane ethanol reached a critical mass in Brazil. The alternative to gasoline took off.

Now, the fifth largest country in the world is producing enough home-grown sugarcane-based ethanol to equal 300,000 barrels of oil per day. Ethanol currently supplies half of the fuel needs of Brazilian vehicles, and the government is expected to announce energy self-sufficiency within a year.

Can a similar approach lead to an energy-independent future in the U.S. and elsewhere?

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. Crude @ $69.75 bbl

10:09 AM ET 6/15/06 CRUDE-OIL FUTURES UP 61C AT $69.75 A BARREL

[ozymandius]

6. FTSE rebounds strongly from six-month low

London equities rebounded from a six-month low on Thursday amid a fresh batch of takeover speculation, including talk of an Emirates bid for British Airways.

With the highly-volatile mining sector leading the bounce, the FTSE 100 index jumped 82 points, or 1.6 per cent, to 5,587.8, ending three straight-days of losses.

more

[Ghost Dog]

14. Sterling moves higher on strong retail sales data

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=ukPoundRpt&storyID=2006-06-15T083834Z_01_L15895168_RTRIDST_0_STERLING-MOVES-HIGHER-ON-STRONG-RETAIL-SALES-DATA.XML
Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:38 AM BST

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Sterling spiked higher against the euro and the dollar on Thursday after UK retail sales rose at a faster than expected annual pace in May, supporting the view that interest rates could be hiked this year.

Retail sales rose 4.0 percent on the year -- above a forecast for 3.6 percent rise. The monthly increase, at 0.5 percent, was in line with forecasts.

"Risks of further rate hikes are being priced in and it's not unreasonable," said Adarsh Sinha, currency strategist at Barclays Capital.

By 0835 GMT, sterling had spiked up as high as $1.8464 <GBP=>, from pre-data levels around $1.8447. Versus the euro, it ticked up by about 10 ticks to 68.34 pence <EURGBP=>

[Ghost Dog]

Europe makes early recovery

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d2683db0-fc3a-11da-9599-0000779e2340.html
By Chris Flood
Published: June 15 2006 07:51 | Last updated: June 15 2006 10:45

European equity markets extended their early gains, enjoying a recovery on Thursday, following an overnight rebound on Wall Street and gains in Asia.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 19.19 points or 1.6 per cent to 1,259.34 while the German Xetra Dax added 83.02 points or 1.6 per cent at 5,388.27 and the French CAC 40 gained 72.19 points or 1.6 per cent at 4,687.63.

ABB, up 5.6 per cent to SFr14.25, led the FTSE Eurofirst 300 after the enggineering giant won a $33m pwer equipment order from Tianjin Power of China. Prior to today’s news, ABB shares had fallen 26.4 per cent from their 2006 high in late April.

Carmakers enjoyed gains after stronger than expected European car registrations data with Fiat up 2.2 per cent to €9.99 while Renault added 1.4 per cent at €82.30 and Volkswagen gained 1.2 per cent at €51.35. DaimlerChrysler rose 1.4 per cent to €37.25 and BMW gained 0.9 per cent at €36.89.

<snip>

Bargain hunters pushed EADS up 2.9 per cent to €19.25. WestLB thought Wednesday’s sharp share price fall was overdone and upgraded its recommendation to buy.

/more, details...

[Ghost Dog]

79. European stocks bounce back as miners, Wall St rally

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-15T165328Z_01_L15425463_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML
Thu Jun 15, 2006 5:53 PM BST
By Sophie Hares

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - European stocks rose sharply on Thursday to claw back a chunk of their recent steep losses, buoyed by a rally in mining stocks and gains on Wall Street as investors took advantage of cheaper valuations on offer.

Takeovers remained in the spotlight, with Associated British Ports (ABP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) jumping as a bidding battle for the group heated up, while Veolia Environnement (VIE.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) and Vinci (SGEF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) both fell as merger talks failed to get off the ground.

"We're struggling to find the way out of the doldrums, obviously, unless you've been under a stone for the past month, it's inflation. It's always a big worry," said Victor Polak, portfolio manager at Citigroup's wealth advisory unit.

"It's still very much a stock picker's market. Can you find value in these markets? Absolutely."

The pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares closed up 2.3 percent at 1,268.4 points, its biggest one-day gain since May 23.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

80. Europe rebounds in broad rally

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d2683db0-fc3a-11da-9599-0000779e2340.html
By Chris Flood and Darryl Thomson
Published: June 15 2006 07:51 | Last updated: June 15 2006 17:31

European bourses forged ahead on Thursday in line with strong gains for equities across the globe.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 2.3 per cent to 1,268.44.

Not surprisingly, the biggest gainers were those stocks most prominent in the recent retreat. Norsk Hydro, the Norwegian oil and aluminium producer, soared 9.3 per cent to NKr159.50 and Statoil gained 6.2 per cent to NKr164. National Bank of Greece, which had fallen nearly 10 per cent since it won shareholder approval on June 1 for a heavily discounted €3bn rights issue, added 9.5 per cent to €29.02.

ABB gained 7.4 per cent to SFr14.50, recovering part of a 26.4 per cent flop from its 2006 high in late April. The engineering giant on Thursday won a $33m power equipment order from Tianjin Power of China.

Deutsche Börse rose 7 per cent to €101.35 on hopes the battle for Euronext, which operates the Paris, Amsterdam, Lisbon and Brussels bourses, was not yet over. Politicians in Germany, France and Italy have warned that the proposed merger between Euronext and the New York Stock Exchange could cause an erosion of Europe’s strength in financial markets. Euronext added 6.1 per cent to €67.50.

Speculation that Alstom would replace steelmaker Arcelor in the CAC-40 was ascribed by traders as a possible reason for the French engineering group’s 8.3 per cent climb to €65.95.

Euronext said on Wednesday it would remove Arcelor for technical reasons from the CAC-40 until its takeover situation was resolved. The index would temporarily have 39 constituents.

Arcelor, up 2.3 per cent to €33.53, is in talks with Mittal Steel about a possible takeover, having rejected its advances more than four months ago. Arcelor recently announced plans to merge with Severstal of Russia, but shareholders have expressed unease about the tie-up.

Carmakers enjoyed gains after the release of stronger than expected European car registrations data. Volkswagen rose 5.1 per cent to €53.36, BMW 3.3 per cent to €37.75 and Fiat 4.9 per cent to €10.234.

EADS climbed 6.8 per cent to €20 on bargain hunting after it sank 26 per cent on Wednesday in response to a warning about delays to its Airbus A380 superjumbo. A shareholder group called on the French regulators to investigate stock option sales in March by directors of EADS, three months before the delay announcement.

/better cut here...

[Ghost Dog]

81. Some numbers:

FTSE 5619.3 +2.04%
CAC 40 4724.58 +2.36%
DAX 5422.22 +2.19%
SMI 7324.4 +2.13 %

[ozymandius]

9. Netscape reborn again as blog-era news site

NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - Netscape, which started life as a Web browser company and then evolved into a media destination site, is being reinvented once again to merge news reporting and blogs with the latest Internet trends.

On Thursday, the revised Netscape.com will begin a public test of what its new general manager, dot-com news entrepreneur Jason Calacanis, said aims to reinvent the modern news service.

"I don't think journalism is broken at all," Calacanis told Reuters. "But some things can come faster."

more

[Ghost Dog]

11. HK stocks rebound, H shares end 6 days of losses

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=hongkongMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-15T091918Z_01_HKG350214_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-HONGKONG-STOCKS-UPDATE-4.XML
Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:19 AM BST
By Rita Chang

HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks recovered across the board on Thursday, finishing up 1.23 percent, as firm commodity prices buoyed battered resource shares, snapping a six-day losing streak for Hong Kong-listed H shares of mainland Chinese companies.

The energy sector got an extra boost from news that Husky Energy Inc. (HSE.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), a partner of mainland offshore oil producer CNOOC Ltd.'s (0883.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) parent, had made a giant natural gas discovery in the South China Sea. (For details, please click on ).

The China Enterprises index of H-shares <.HSCE> jumped 2.29 percent to 6,036.49, its biggest one-day percentage gain in nearly a month.

The benchmark Hang Seng index <.HSI> closed at 15,435.08.

"The market had a turn in sentiment, from very bearish to slightly bullish," said Andrew To, sales director at Tai Fook Securities. "If the index holds above 15,500, then it will break a secular downtrend pattern."

Many market watchers said the market was nearing a short-term bottom.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

12. Kyodo economic news summary -5-

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060615/kyodo/d8i8ipn80.html

(Kyodo) _ ---------- Dollar moves at snail's pace around 115 yen line in Tokyo

/more...

---------- Koizumi repeats no intent to axe Fukui over Murakami Fund investment

/more...

---------- BOJ chief denies possible resignation over Murakami Fund investment

/more...

---------- India aims to strike FTA with Japan later this year: Nath

/more...

---------- BOJ almost ends process of cutting current account deposit balance

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

13. BOJ chief denies possible resignation over Murakami Fund investment

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060615/kyodo/d8i8ibjo1.html

(Kyodo) _ Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui on Thursday ruled out the possibility that he will resign to take the blame for his investment in a fund founded by Yoshiaki Murakami, who was arrested last week for alleged insider stock trading.

"I will accept public criticism humbly," Fukui said at a news conference. "I want to fulfill my duty."

Fukui earlier this week said he put 10 million yen in the fund in the autumn of 1999 before becoming central bank chief in 2003 and is still keeping the money in it.

[UpInArms]

15. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.97 Change -0.11 (-0.13%)

FX Market Set For Run Of Market Worthy Indicators

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__FX_Market_1150321131619.html

US Empire Manufacturing Survey (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)



Consensus: 10.9

Previous: 12.4



Outlook: Manufacturing activity in the Empire State is expected to slow even further in June, with the state’s survey reading likely to fall to 10.9 from 12.4 in May. Although still signaling expansion – with a read above the 0.0 growth/contraction figure – the index has averaged 15.6 throughout 2005. What’s more, the expected figure would represent the lowest value in over a year. As was occurring in June, skyrocketing energy prices have hammered profit margins, limiting the ability of businesses expand. Factory production accounts for some 13 percent of total gross domestic product, while that of the New York area represents almost 5 percent of the region’s growth, highlighting the importance of continued prosperity in this arena. Although relatively small, Empire Manufacturing often foreshadows results from the broad ISM survey due July 3.



Previous: Manufacturing growth in New York unexpectedly slowed to a reading of 12.4 in May as costs of energy and raw materials jumped. Surging prices of crude oil and metals drove up factory costs across the nation, not just in the Empire region. The higher costs were somewhat offset by rising demand, the survey found, as measures of new orders, shipments and unfilled orders all increased; though is partially due to a carry over from previous months’ demand. Higher costs haven’t deterred companies from adding new factories and warehouses, the survey also showed. Of the companies in the survey planning new construction, 55 percent said spending this year will be about the same as last year.





US Net Foreign Securities Purchases (TICS) (APR) (13:00 GMT; 09:00 EST)



Consensus: $60.0B

Previous: $69.8B



Outlook: Net foreign investment in the US is expected to have declined over the month of April, complicating the bloating of the trade deficit to $63.4 billion. The tumble in US securities for the month of April was likely due to decreasing confidence in the US economy, and emerging doubt in the stability of the US dollar. Treasury bills are expected loose some of their appeal, as some central banks, such as the Riksbank of Sweden, diversified reserves by moving out of US government securities. Equities markets are also likely to shed foreign investments, as the US stock markets moved sluggishly in April, with the Dow dipping 1.75% on the month. In addition, record oil prices shook confidence in the US economy, a major oil importer, and made PPI spike to a 7 month high 0.9% thanks to the sharp rise in manufacturing costs. Foreign investors, particularly those in Asia, sold off over $18 billion in equity and government securities market in March, and April’s economic turmoil probably produced some of the same. With a trade deficit that rose by almost $2 billion in April, the predicted $60 billion foreign investment will leave the US unable to finance its deficit – further diminishing the currency’s appeal.

Previous: March saw a dip in international investment in the US, with net foreign investment plunging over $20 billion from the month before. On the back of February’s net foreign investment coming in over $90 billion, a decline in purchases of Treasury bonds and notes contributed to the significantly smaller surplus in March, with Japan selling off over $14 million in Treasury securities. Foreign securities purchases reached only $69.8 billion, but were still strong enough to cover the trade deficit, which itself fell to $61 billion. While the balance dropped significantly, investors were still relieved to see that the US would yet again be able to pay for its expensive import habit.


US Industrial Production (MAY) (13:15 GMT; 09:15 EST)

Consensus: 0.2%

Previous: 0.8%



Outlook: Industrial output in the United States is expected to have slowed to 0.2 percent growth last month, the lowest level since January. This indicator focuses on manufacturing activity, an aggregate of production in factories, mines and utilities. The projected deceleration should be no surprise as prices received by firms – measured by the producer price index – just printed at three-month highs, giving evidence that companies have raised prices to recoup the higher bills paid for commodities, though consumer confidence and spending was looking somewhat fragile. In addition to the direct burden of higher energy costs, the effects of higher lending rates that are also partially resultant of more expensive crude, will be taxing on industrial production. This broad measure of factory activity will be compared to the regional measures such as the Empire and Philadelphia manufacturing surveys to produce a more complete picture of the sector’s health.



Previous: The 0.8 percent climb in production at US factories, mines and utilities in April beat expectations and expanded beyond March’s 0.6 percent increase. The gain was led by demand for business equipment, which in turn pushed the amount of utilized factory capacity near six-year highs. More specifically, the proportion of industrial capacity in use rose to 81.9 percent from 81.4 percent, coming in at the highest level since July of 2000. Breaking down the numbers reveals low amounts of slack in the economy as capacity utilization has been gradually rising since disruptions attributable to Hurricane Katrina. The sector has also enjoyed higher demand for increased technology. This has benefited companies like Texas Instruments, Inc., whose production levels grew around 8.4 percent in April. In turn, however, companies like this are nearing their production limits, which can add to inflationary pressures and thus add one more reason for the Fed to boost lending rates. Overall these numbers are encouraging and will help to pay off the looming trade deficit as foreign demand for US goods is met.

...more...

Yield Curve Inversion Deepens as Market Worries About the Impact of Higher Rates

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Yield_Curve_Inversion_Deepens_as_1150320443499.html

US Dollar

The US dollar’s rally over the past month has become extremely overextended and the market is finally beginning to feel it. After yesterday’s sharp movements in the commodity and stock markets, today’s theme has been retracements. Oil and gold prices are both slightly higher, along with the Dow. In the FX markets, the buck has sold off even though today’s US data is more dollar positive than negative, purely because buyers are starting to become scarce ahead of critical resistance levels. Inflation is the Fed’s primary focus, which made today’s report on consumer prices even more important. Headline prices rose 0.4 percent while core prices rose 0.3 percent, which was slightly stronger than expected. Although it may seem like only a mild up tick from the 0.2 percent forecast, the three month annualized rate of core inflation, the number that Bernanke is keeping an eye on, hit 3.8 percent, the highest level in over a decade. This strong pace of growth has sent rate hike expectations to 100 percent, with the market already beginning to price in a tiny chance for another hike in August. However, a closer look at the report shows that a large part of the rise was due to the higher cost of owners equivalent rent. The pickup in mortgage rates has made renting a far more attractive option than owning. Bond yields has risen as traders price in higher rates, but at the same time the yield curve has inverted further, indicating that the market believes the higher interest rates will have a big impact on growth. Even though the rise in owners equivalent rent is an immediate inflationary concern, it is also a longer term headache. The higher mortgage rates rise, the more risks it poses for the housing market. The Fed’s Beige Book is already showing signs of this impact as many of the districts report slower growth and higher inflation. Yet the Fed has chosen to focus exclusively on the inflation component at the risk of growth. This is a dangerous game to play, but with such solidarity behind their decision to unanimously tell the markets that another quarter point rise will be coming in June, it is a message that we cannot ignore. Therefore until the next meeting, even if we do see the dollar give back more of its gains, it will probably not come close to 1.30 in the EUR/USD as the fear of how far the Fed will go keeps dollar bears cautious of taking on new positioning. Meanwhile tomorrow we are expecting the TIC data, also known as the report on net foreign purchases of US securities. Talk of reserve diversification over the past few months could bring about a weak number, which would extend the dollar’s losses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

48. Dollar rallies on manufacturing, jobless claims data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5B672477%2D6E88%2D4924%2D9C30%2DF29F285F621E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar rallied early Thursday after robust economic data showed activity in the New York area surged unexpectedly in June and initial jobless claims at the lowest level since mid-February. The New York Federal Reserve Bank said the bank's Empire State Manufacturing index jumped to 29.0 in June from a revised 12.9 in May. Economists were expecting the index to inch higher to 12.5 from the initial estimate last month of 12.4. Elsewhere, first-time applications for state unemployment benefits dropped by 8,000 to 295,000 in the week ending June 10, the Labor Department said. The euro was at $1.2593 vs. $1.2622 before data, while the dollar was at 115.03 yen vs. 114.82 yen.

[UpInArms]

54. Dollar lower after weak capital-flow data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA23DFF12%2D9A73%2D416D%2DB7C5%2D2A5BCA7DCF4D%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar weakened across the board early Thursday after a much weaker-than-expected foreign capital flows report reignited concerns over the U.S. ability to finance its swelling deficits.

Capital flows into the U.S. fell sharply to $46.7 billion in April as private investors sold Treasury bonds and notes and bought fewer equities, the Treasury Department said Thursday. The number was well short of covering the nation's trade gap of the month, which widened 2.5% to $63.4 billion.

This is "extremely bad number," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at FXCM. "No surprise though given the rampant talk of reserve diversification over the past few months and the weakness of the dollar exacerbating the concern of central banks who saw the value of their portfolios erode."

"However even though this is a clear confirmation of the country's structural problems, it should only have a mild impact on the U.S. dollar as traders focus primarily on the Fed's rate decision," she added.

...more...

[NC_Nurse]

16. Well, I'm glad to know healthcare

is doing well.
I wonder when the boon will trickle down to us front line caregivers? Actually, I know when: NEVER!
Fortunately, I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure the CEO's will all get a nice fat bonus, meanwhile everyone will keep whining about the nursing shortage...
well ya get what you pay for folks.

:rant:

[Ghost Dog]

17. You know the answer to that, Nurse: ¡Democratise. Socialise, Nationalise!

:rant:

[NC_Nurse]

20. Indeed.

But what would happen to the American Dream if the few white men at the top couldn't make a king's ransom at others' expense? While "cost-cutting" the rest of us into impossibly difficult jobs with too little support and equipment?

That would be just terrible! :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

18. Michaels Understated Exec Comp by $60 million - options timing (1990-2001)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA4F82A89%2D67DF%2D445B%2DA94F%2DE251F0BE15F1%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crafts retailer Michaels Stores Inc. said it understated compensation expenses by as much as $60 million between 1990 and 2001 because of stock options it awarded with effective dates that were earlier than the date on which they were approved, according to a media report Tuesday.

Irving, Texas-based Michaels (MIK : 37.70, +1.52, +4.2% ) , which operates more than 1,000 stores under the Michaels, Aaron Brothers and Star Decorators Wholesale brands, said the discovery, which emerged from an internal options investigation, will require reclassification of certain financial results but it doesn't expect to make any restatements, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition. See Wall Street Journal story (subscription required).

The company previously said it would delay reporting results for its quarter ended April 29 to pursue the internal investigation of options-granting practices.

Michaels has said it changed its practices in 2001 to give options awards on set dates, and its investigation didn't uncover any anomalies since then.

Michaels didn't specify which options were involved or which executives got them, The Journal reported.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

19. Gold, silver jump in Europe on technical buying

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-15T101906Z_01_L15896010_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-2.XML
Thu Jun 15, 2006 11:19 AM BST
By Atul Prakash

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Precious metals bounced back on Thursday on strong technical buying, with gold gaining three percent and silver jumping more than six percent in choppy trade, analysts said.

Market players watched movements in the dollar and oil for clearer direction. Some analysts said the steep downtrend had stalled for the timebeing.

"The worst of those falls seems to be over. Fundamentals are very strong and gold is now moving back up again," said Michael Widmer, analyst at Macquarie Bank.

"I will be very surprised if gold falls so much further. There are good reasons to believe that prices will move gradually higher from where we are."

Spot gold <XAU=> rose as much as $576.30 an ounce after falling to $553.75 in Asian trade. It was at $575.60/576.30 per ounce by 0953 GMT, sharply up from $558.20/558.90 in New York late on Wednesday.

Buyers returned after gold almost touched a technical support level of $540 on Wednesday, dealers said. At its three-month low of $543, gold was down 26 percent from its 26-year peak of $730 hit last month.

/more...

[UpInArms]

21. Chrysler announces second Jeep recall in 2 days

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060614/bs_usatoday/chryslerannouncessecondjeeprecallin2days

DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler Group will recall 131,000 Jeep Grand Cherokees because of a defective engine fan, and Connecticut's attorney general called for an investigation into the SUV after reports of a separate problem.

It was the second Grand Cherokee recall in as many days.

Plastic blades on engine-cooling fans in model-year 2000 and 2002 vehicles can fly off and injure bystanders, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Tuesday.

Chrysler said Monday that it would recall 111,600 Grand Cherokees from 2003 and 2004 because their heated front seats may catch on fire.

Separately, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to NHTSA asking for an investigation into late-model Grand Cherokees after reports of the vehicles accelerating without warning. He didn't say how many incidents were recorded.

<snip>

In his letter, Blumenthal said a Grand Cherokee suddenly accelerated and killed a man at a car wash in Hamden, Conn., in February.

...more...

[fasttense]

24. Happy Days are here again! n/t

[UpInArms]

26. Morgan Stanley turns cautious on homebuilders

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B62FDC98C%2DEBB2%2D463D%2D96DA%2DD402A490B1F8%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley downgraded the homebuilding sector to cautious from attractive, as order declines and increasing inventories are expected to lead to further negative earnings revisions. Analyst Robert Stevenson also downgraded KB Home (KBH : 43.19, +0.93, +2.2% ) , Lennar (LEN : 43.65, +0.59, +1.4% ) and Pulte Corp. (PHM : 27.17, +0.61, +2.3% ) to equal weight from overweight. Stevenson said he expects the group as a whole to trade down another 15% to 25%. "Our view is based on the current supply/demand imbalance, the increasing odds of further rate increases, and the prospect that operating fundamentals could continue to get worse," Stevenson said. The Philadelphia Housing Index (HGX : 204.30, +1.65, +0.8% ) closed Wednesday up $1.65 at $204.30, and has already lost 22% over the last 2 months. For KB Home, Stevenson cuts his stock price target to $32 from $80. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter results after Thursday's closing bell. Stevenson cut Lennar's price target to $31 from $66 and Pulte's target to $22 from $43.

[stop the bleeding]

35. Some of my best

Put plays have been in this sector for the last 2 weeks.

Take a look at these charts PHM and RYL - and from what I heard PHM just got downgraded by at least 2 different analysts this morning.

These typically go down no matter what the market does, however yesterday both went from flat to slightly up but not bad considering the market went up 110 points, if either one of these gaps down, then I will unload them before there is any kind of an bounce. I won't be greedy and try to wait for them to trade down further throughout the rest of the day.

Hovnanian(spelling may be off) is another that was downgraded along with others in this sector.

[UpInArms]

27. Hedge fund executives want publicity rules changed

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-06-14T193503Z_01_N14332681_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-HEDGE-PERCEPTION.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. securities regulations restrict the hedge fund industry from defending itself adequately against a bad rap in public perceptions as being secretive and prone to fraud, top hedge fund officials said at a conference on Wednesday.

Hedge fund managers are barred by the so-called general solicitation rule from publicly discussing their fund performance, fund-raising or other matters that may be interpreted as advertising to the general public.

But hedge fund managers said the rule prevents them from educating the public about the benefits hedge funds bring to financial markets, which include increased market liquidity, better pricing of illiquid securities and general market efficiency.

<snip>

SAC, widely viewed as one of the most successful hedge fund groups, had its own share of bad publicity earlier this year in a CBS-TV "60 Minutes" report, in which small Canadian biotech company Biovail Corp. <BVF.TO> alleged SAC's short-selling activities manipulated and damaged its stock.

<snip>

But a media focus on a handful of frauds such as that involving Bayou Management, a collapsed Connecticut hedge fund, along with reports of hedge fund managers' lavish lifestyles, has given the industry a negative image that isn't being offset by positive comment, industry officials said.

...more...

I only wish the media would focus on Bayou Management!

Bayou and the Bush Cousin

A first cousin of President Bush is emerging as a peripheral player in the increasingly bizarre Bayou Management hedge fund scandal.

Sources say John P. Ellis, a former journalist turned investment banker, represented several companies in investment presentations to IM Partners, a side venture set up by Samuel Israel and Daniel Marino. Israel and Marino were the management team that ran Bayou and who federal prosecutors allege defrauded investors out of $300 million.

People familiar with the Bayou saga say Ellis, a personal friend of Israel for the past several years, helped arranged at least five investment deals for IM Partners while working as a managing director for GH Venture Partners, a New York City-based investment bank. In all, IM Partners, a Connecticut-based investment partnership, invested at least $25 million in deals handled by GH Venture.

There's no indication that Ellis or GH Ventures were direct or indirect investors in either Bayou or IM Partners. And, other than their common principals, there's no direct evidence that any relationship existed between IM Partners and Bayou, although both operated out of the same Stamford, Conn., office.

A former columnist for the Boston Globe, Ellis may be best known for his work as an electoral consultant for Fox News during the 2000 presidential election. It was Ellis' analysis of the Florida vote total that led Fox to declare Bush the victor before any of the other networks.

...more...

[Buttercup McToots]

30. Good Morning!

Let The Games Begin!
:bounce:

[UpInArms]

31. g'morning to you, Buttercup McToots!

:hi:

Should be interesting today :eyes:

[UpInArms]

28. Exec says cuts at Ford going faster than expected - US closings & layoffs

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-06-14T205720Z_01_N14238928_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-FORD.xml&src=rss

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is making faster-than-expected progress in reducing its hourly work force as part of a restructuring, a senior company official said on Wednesday.

Mark Fields, Ford's president for the Americas and the executive overseeing the auto giant's North American restructuring, also said in a speech to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that plant closings are on schedule.

With U.S. automakers losing market share mainly to Asian rivals, Ford announced a North American restructuring last November that includes plans to idle 14 plants and cut up to 30,000 jobs.

Germany's DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), parent of Detroit-based Chrysler Group, has restructured to be more competitive. General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is also overhauling its operations.

Fields, who helped turn around Japan's Mazda Motor Corp., said Ford has completed its 10 percent reduction in costs for salaried workers and is moving "faster than expected" on hourly reductions.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Ford to invest $9.2 billion in Mexico: report - 150,000 jobs w/i 10 yrs

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-06-14T171636Z_01_N14226570_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-FORD-MEXICO.xml&src=rss

ETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which is slashing jobs and closing plants in the United States as it seeks to return its North American operations to profitability, is preparing to invest up to $9.2 billion in Mexico to leverage its low operating costs there, a Michigan newspaper reported on Wednesday.

The Oakland Press, a Detroit-area newspaper, said the investment was detailed in a confidential, 28-page document turned over to it by a Ford employee.

The document, part of which had been prepared for a presentation in early April to officials from the Mexican government, said Ford, the No. 2 U.S. automaker, could invest a total of $9.2 billion in Mexico over a six-year period from 2006 to 2012, according to the newspaper.

Ford spokesman Oscar Suris declined to comment on the report, calling it "speculative."

The newspaper said a second source familiar with Ford operations vouched for the authenticity of the document, "which suggested the automaker's investment could potentially create up to 150,000 jobs in Mexico within the next decade."

...more...

[fasttense]

37. So with all those wonderful American jobs,

Why are there so many Mexican citizens here in the US illegally?

[Roland99]

43. There's more of Ross Perot's great sucking sound

[spinbaby]

33. Here's a minor economic indicator

In the Pittsburgh area, Goodwill is shutting down stores and collection centers because of a "nearly 30 percent decline in donor traffic and a lessening of quality donations."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06166/698386-85.stm

[JNelson6563]

34. That IS a bad sign!

I hope we don't see this on a wide-spread basis.

[ozone_man]

78. Making do with the clothes we have.

I would take that as another good economic indicator. Sorry baby, you may need a new pair of shoes, but I think the old ones still have some life left in them. :)

[UpInArms]

38. Pier 1 loss nearly doubles, sees weak June sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BABC6760A%2DC61C%2D44E7%2DA1C3%2DA20B999EC4C9%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pier 1 Imports on Thursday said its first-quarter loss nearly doubled as customer traffic remained weak and store occupancy costs rose.

The Fort Worth, Texas-based home furnishings and accessories retailer reported a net loss of $23.2 million, or 27 cents a share. Pier 1 (PIR : 8.40, +0.14, +1.7% ) said results included an after-tax loss from discontinued operations of 1 cent a share. In the year-ago period, it lost $12.5 million, or 14 cents a share.

Total sales declined 3.6% to $376.1 million for the three months ended May 27. Sales at stores open at least one year, a retail industry metric known as same-store sales, fell 6.6%.

<snip>

The company, which has struggled with merchandise missteps and shaky profits, launched a brand repositioning campaign in March featuring "Modern Craftsman" merchandise, new advertising and in-store marketing. The overhaul was not enough to turn the quarter around. See more retail coverage.

...more...

Isn't this the 20th quarterly loss in a row for Pier I?

[UpInArms]

39. Bear Stearns profit rises 81%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0C1DDB80%2D45D1%2D4D3A%2DA497%2D3354CEB02A73%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bear Stearns (BSC : 124.20, +0.77, +0.6% ) said Thursday its second quarter profit rose 81% on strength in its capital markets business. The firm, the third of three Wall Street firms to report this week, said it earned $539.3 million, or $3.72 a share compared to $298.1 million, or $2.09 a share a year ago. In the first quarter of 2006, the firm earned $529.3 million, or $3.54 a share. The firm had revenue of $2.50 billion in the latest quarter, compared to $1.87 billion a year ago and $$2.19 billion in the first quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had, on average, expected the firm to earn $3.12 a share in the quarter.

:wow:

The rich become richer!

[UpInArms]

41. Treasuries tick lower; to scope out manufacturing

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-15T121829Z_01_N15293980_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices eased slightly early Thursday as investors, still reeling from an inflation-driven sell-off, awaited figures on U.S. industry.

While the numbers could certainly rattle the market in what has been a volatile June so far, they are unlikely to alter perceptions cemented by this week's outsized inflation figures: the Federal Reserve is all but certain to raise interest rates again later this month.

"The firmer-than-expected core CPI has sealed the chances of a 25 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting, but more importantly it opens the door to another possible rate move at the next meeting in August," said Lena Komileva, G7 market economist at Tulett Prebon.

The Federal Reserve is slated to release data on national manufacturing production for May, while the New York and Philadelphia regional central banks will publish June results for their own areas.

<snip>

This increase in short-term rates also helped further an re-inversion of the yield curve, with spreads between 10- and two-year notes now at 6 basis points.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves through 14-day system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-15T122702Z_01_N15302829_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds traded at 5.063 percent, above the Fed's target of 5 percent for the benchmark overnight lending rate, at the time of the operation.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Roland99]

86. Those wouldn't be used to spark the markets into buying now, would they?

naaaaaaaahhhhhhh

[UpInArms]

47. Treasurys tumble on stronger-than-expected Empire survey

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA74E9B70%2D5D7C%2D4AE5%2DA14A%2DDEC1EC2CB1C5%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys tumbled early Thursday, sending yields higher, after a survey of manufacturing in the New York area came in well above expectations, adding to the Federal Reserve's case for further interest-rate hikes. The 10-year was last trading down 10/32 at 100-5/32, to yield 5.1%, up from 5.06% at Wednesday's close. Manufacturing activity in the New York area surged in June, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index jumped to 29.0 in June from a revised 12.9 in May. Economists were expecting the index to inch higher to 12.5 from the initial estimate last month of 12.4.

[wordpix2]

59. they still do manufacturing in NY?

[Ghost Dog]

65. That would be; New Jersey. eom.

[UpInArms]

61. August Fed Rate Hike has 75% probability

BULLETIN>> MARKET PUTS LIKELIHOOD OF FED HIKE IN AUGUST AT 75%

[UpInArms]

75. U.S. Treasury to sell $29 bln bills on Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-15T150700Z_01_WAT005845_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday announced the following details of a bill offering: Term 3 months 6 months Amount $15 billion $14 billion Auction date June 19 June 19 Refunding maturing debt $35.96 bln Pay down debt $6.96 bln Competitive bids deadline 1300 EDT/1700 GMT Noncomp deadline 1200 EDT/1600 GMT Settlement June 22 June 22 Maturity date Sept 21 Dec 21 CUSIP 912795XW6 912795YK1 Net Long Position Reporting

Threshold $5.25 bln $4.90 bln NLP Exclusion

Amt $5.90 bln none

and what if no one shows up to buy them :eyes:

[UpInArms]

55. pre-opening blather

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Stage remains set for the cash market to open modestly higher as investors sift through the morning's last piece of economic news. May Industrial Production fell 0.1% (consensus 0.2%) while Capacity Utilization unexpectedly fell to 81.7% (consensus 82.0%), offering some relief in bonds since 80% is the barrier in which inflationary pressures are generated. The 10-yr note is now down only 3 ticks to yield 5.07%.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.8. Futures indications are off their best levels, in sympathy with a pullback in Treasuries following stronger than expected economic data, but still suggest recent buying efforts will carry over into the opening bell. Meanwhile, even though Financials failed to participate in yesterday's relief rally, questioning the sustainability of the market's gains without its leadership, the underperforming sector could get a boost today after Bear Stearns (BSC) posted its third straight record quarter with an 81% year/year rise in Q2 profits.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Still shaping up for stocks to open on an upbeat note as futures indications continue to trade comfortably above fair value, getting additional support from material gains across the board in overseas markets. Separately, initial claims fell 8K to 295K (consensus 320K) and June NY Empire Index checked in at 29.0 (consensus 11.0). The reaction in stocks so far has been muted, but bonds have weakened; the 10-yr note is now down 7 ticks to yield 5.09%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures versus fair value suggest the major indices will extend yesterday's recovery from seven-month lows. Despite an absence of any real market-moving corporate news behind early follow-through efforts, the market's ability Wednesday to regain some upward momentum in the face a worrisome core-CPI report and validation of more rate hikes underscores that a short-term bottom for stocks has been put in place.

[UpInArms]

57. Fannie, Freddie bailout not guaranteed: Treasury's Henry

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC51536D0%2D3F5A%2D4B40%2DB796%2D4C4F3AFADD53%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration continued to turn up the heat on government-sponsored housing giants Fannie Mae (FNM : 47.26, -0.18, -0.4% ) and Freddie Mac (FRE : 57.58, +0.36, +0.6% ) on Thursday, as a senior Treasury official warned the huge companies they shouldn't expect assistance from the government if they get into financial trouble. In a speech to a real estate group, Treasury Undersecretary Emil Henry said past government bailouts don't mean the government will act again. "Past actions, especially in the case of government bailouts, are not a good predictor of future actions," Henry said in prepared remarks to the Real Estate Roundtable.

Hmmmm.....

Are they saying that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are about to "fail"?

edited to add line items:

9:30 AM ET 6/15/06 TREASURY TROUBLED BY FREDDIE MAC ACCOUNTING, HENRY
SAYS

9:30 AM ET 6/15/06 FANNIE, FREDDIE U.S. BORROWING ABILITY LIMITED: HENRY

9:30 AM ET 6/15/06 FANNIE, FREDDIE BAILOUT NOT GUARANTEED: TREASURY'S HENRY

[UpInArms]

58. 9:35 EST Lots of Joy in LaLa Land!

Dow 10,853.67 +36.75 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,103.88 +17.88 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 1,236.02 +5.98 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 50.82 +0.32 (+0.63%)

NYSE Volume 90,096,000
Nasdaq Volume 102,051,000

[UpInArms]

60. 9:43 EST Happy Numbers and Skeptical Blather

Dow 10,866.80 +49.88 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,104.87 +18.87 (+0.90%)
S&P 500 1,237.42 +7.38 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 5.086 +0.36 (+0.71%)

NYSE Volume 178,124,000
Nasdaq Volume 179,808,000

09:40 am : Strong follow-through seen at the onset of trading as a sense that the market is still oversold on a short-term basis sidelines sellers for a second straight day. Recognition that stocks shrugged off a worrisome core-CPI report and validation of more rate hikes yesterday is again lending credence to the argument that a technical bottom has been reached. Be that as it may, we still don't believe a sustained rally is likely and maintain a Neutral view until the market gets an indication that inflation is easing and that the end of Fed tightening is more visible. DJ30 +51.12 NASDAQ +20.37 SP500 +7.36 NASDAQ Vol 138 mln NYSE Vol 92 mln

[Buttercup McToots]

63. Yup

Yes Yes Yes
I love green...
:9


In the middle of foggy night in the North-west Atlantic.....two lights are heading directly for one another... and on the radio an American voice is heard saying "We suggest you alter course by 10 degrees to port". Back comes the reply "We suggest YOU alter course by 10 degrees to port!" Then the American voice says "This is the battleship USS Missouri leading the American Atlantic battle fleet. You had better alter course by 10 degrees to port." Back comes the reply "This is the Outer Hebrides lighthouse, but it's your call, Jimmy".

[UpInArms]

66. Walgreen to stop filling prescriptions for a Michigan plan

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=82db54de-ec3f-4ca0-a7c2-67d22fb7365c&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Walgreen Co., (WAG : 43.17, +0.09, +0.2% ) the Deerfield, Ill., drugstore chain, said that as of July 1 it would stop filling prescriptions for members of Midwest Health Plan of Dearborn, Mich. The reason: The plan's pharmacy-reimbursement rates were inadequate, Walgreen said in a statement. "Walgreens has been in discussions with Midwest Health Plan for the past several months on a rate that reflects the considerable costs of providing patients with their medication therapy and processing insurance claims," the company said. It added that it remains "committed to working with" Midwest Health Plan and is "optimistic our pharmacies will rejoin the plan" in the future. Walgreen shares are trading up 12 cents at $43.20.

[UpInArms]

67. 10:45 EST Markets having Ecstacy Attack

Dow 10,913.21 +96.29 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,120.82 +34.82 (+1.67%)
S&P 500 1,242.93 +12.89 (+1.05%)
10-Yr Bond 5.080 +0.30 (+0.59%)

NYSE Volume 717,959,000
Nasdaq Volume 605,146,000

10:30 am : Buying remains the name of the game early on as the market continues to hit fresh session highs. Aside from reasonable valuations providing early support, as the P/E ratio on the SnP 500 for operating earnings is only 15.5, a batch of encouraging economic data are also lending some early support. Initial claims fell to 295,000, a positive sign for the economy and reflective of strong labor conditions, while the NY Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly jumped to 29.0 in June from 12.9 in May, also acting as a reminder that the anxieties in the financial markets do not necessarily translate into the real world economy.DJ30 +73.22 NASDAQ +28.15 SP500 +9.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 523/2147/198 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 642/2252/406 mln

10:00 am : Indices extend their reach to the upside as eight out of 10 sectors post respectable gains. Energy and Materials are again pacing the way higher as weakness in the greenback renews enthusiasm for dollar-denominated commodities like oil (+1.0%) and gold (+1.9%). Financials, which was absent during yesterday's rebound, is providing the bulk of early leadership this morning, fueled by another record quarter from Bear Stearns (BSC 127.30 +3.10). Technology, the year's worst performing sector (-8.6%), is also attracting bargain hunters, with notable buying efforts seen in semiconductor, while Industrials has gotten a boost after Caterpillar (CAT 70.23 +2.75) reiterated its FY06 guidance and raised its dividend. Per usual when sentiment turns around and prospects for growth return, the defensive characteristics of sectors like Consumer Staples and Health Care -- today's only laggards -- become less attractive. DJ30 +67.12 NASDAQ +24.74 SOX +1.9% SP500 +8.68 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 496/2011/296

Markets now love interest rate hikes and unfinancible deficits :crazy:

[UpInArms]

69. Honeywell to pay $2.6 mln for False Claims violation: DOJ

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5F99CA12%2D3E1A%2D42E0%2D88A4%2DEACFE7BEA5CB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Honeywell International Inc. (HON : 38.87, +0.85, +2.2% ) will pay the United States $2.6 million to resolve allegations that it violated the False Claims Act, the Justice Department said on Thursday. The government alleges that Honeywell did not properly test electrostatic protective metallic sheets which had been qualified by the Department of the Navy for use in packaging over 186,000 sensitive parts used by the Defense Department and the National Aeronautic and Space Administration. The settlement resolves Honeywell's potential liability under the False Claims Act, the Justice Department said.

[UpInArms]

70. Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index falls 1.3% in May

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC720E598%2D1784%2D47E3%2DB74E%2D197BEE4C9D22%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index fell 1.3% in May, its worst performance in a year and a half as emerging markets managers, equity funds and managed futures players lost money. Hedge funds focused in short selling did well, making 5.39% on average last month, Credit Suisse (CSR :
53.64, +1.87, +3.6% ) and Tremont Capital Management said on Thursday. The firms' hedge fund index, which tracks more than 400 managers, is still up 6.4% for the first five months of 2006. Emerging markets funds dropped 5.02% on average in May, while equity long/short managers shed 2.84% and managed futures players were down 2.7% on average.

[UpInArms]

71. Hedge funds have worst month since Oct. 2005, report says

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B60DF4547%2D2547%2D4B09%2DB7BC%2DA2723A514C33%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index fell 1.3% in May, its worst performance in a year and a half as emerging markets managers, equity funds and managed futures players lost money.

The last time hedge funds suffered bigger losses was in October 2005, when the index shed 1.46%.

The index, which tracks more than 400 managers, is still up 6.4% for the first five months of 2006, Credit Suisse (CSR : 53.66, +1.89, +3.7% ) and Tremont Capital Management said on Thursday. "After weathering the worst month in almost two years, fears of inflation, continued interest rate increases, and a large drop in consumer confidence, characterized the market climate," Oliver Schupp, president of the Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index, said. "Long/Short equity managers with large net and gross exposures were caught."

<snip>

Hedge funds focused in short selling did well, making 5.39% on average last month, Credit Suisse and Tremont said.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

73. 12:09 EST Nothing But Blue Skies

Dow 10,907.22 +90.30 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,120.13 +34.13 (+1.64%)
S&P 500 1,242.24 +12.20 (+0.99%)
10-Yr Bond 5.100 +0.50 (+0.99%)

NYSE Volume 1,205,893,000
Nasdaq Volume 961,614,000

12:00 pm : Market is holding onto the bulk of its gains midday as a sense that the market is still oversold on a short-term basis sidelines sellers for a second straight day. Recognition that stocks yesterday shrugged off a worrisome core-CPI report and the fact that the Fed will unquestionably combat firming inflationary pressures through further rate hikes, underscores that a technical bottom for stocks has been reached.

Nevertheless, our Neutral view speaks to the possibility that a sustained rally, getting some help from short covering efforts, is not likely based on the reality that worsening market fundamentals -- inflation is on the rise, interest rates are still climbing, and economic growth is slowing -- increases the risk that the Fed will go too far with its tightening.

Aside from reasonable valuations attracting broad-based bargain-hunting interest, as the P/E ratio on the SnP 500 for operating earnings is only 15.5, a batch of encouraging, albeit typically uneventful, economic data are also lending some early support. Initial claims fell to 295,000, a positive sign for the economy and reflective of strong labor conditions, while the NY Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly jumped to 29.0 in June from 12.9 in May, also acting as a reminder that the nervousness in the financial markets do not necessarily translate into the real world economy.

Of the nine economic sectors trading posting respectable gains, Energy and Materials are again pacing the way higher with respective gains of 2.0% as weakness in the greenback renews enthusiasm for dollar-denominated commodities like oil (+1.4%) and gold (+2.2%). Financials sector, which failed to participate in yesterday's relief rally and questioned the sustainability of the market's gains in the absence of its leadership, is among the more notable areas trading sharply higher. Despite a continued slide in Treasuries lifting bond yields, the rate-sensitive sector has gotten its biggest boost from a huge rebound in brokerage. All 12 components in the PHLX Securities Broker/Dealer Index are surging, benefiting in large part from a third straight record quarter from Bear Stearns (BSC 128.60 +4.40), which plays into favorable opinion on brokers.

Technology, the year's worst performing sector (-8.6%), is also attracting bargain hunters, led by a 2.9% surge in semiconductor. Of all 19 components in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, Marvel Technology (MRVL 51.21 +2.48), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, is leading the charge with a 5% gain. Industrials is also providing some strong leadership, getting a lift after Caterpillar (CAT 70.11 +2.63) reiterated its FY06 guidance and raised its dividend.

Consumer Staples, though, continues to struggle as the sector's defensive characteristics become less attractive when sentiment turns around and prospects for growth return. BTK +1.6% DJ30 +90.05 DJTA +2.0% DJUA +0.3% DOT +1.4% NASDAQ +35.28 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +2.3% SOX +2.8% SP400 +1.9% SP500 +12.45 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 571/2344/930 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 635/2477/806 mln

[JNelson6563]

74. I'm here for my free pony

It sure looks like it's free ponies for everybody day today (if you don't mind the bloody mess in Treasuries, of course):

12:13


Dow 10,903.76 +86.84 (0.80%)
Nasdaq 2,119.47 +33.47 (1.60%)
S&P 500 1,241.94 +11.90 (0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 5.104% +0.54 (OUCH)

[The_Casual_Observer]

76. Only 400 pts to go & I'm out until a dem is in charge.

[Roland99]

77. 1:33pm - It's a beautiful day in the neighborhod...

DJIA 10,881.75 +64.83 +0.60%
Nasdaq 2,116.59 +30.59 +1.47%
S&P 500 1,240.57 +10.53 +0.86%
Dow Util 406.13 +2.18 +0.54%
NYSE 7,887.06 +106.73 +1.37%
AMEX 1,848.38 +34.27 +1.89%
Russell 2000 692.32 +15.23 +2.25%
Semcond 450.76 +11.43 +2.60%
Gold future 575.00 +8.50 +1.50%
30-Year Bond 5.14% +0.05 +1.02%
10-Year Bond 5.10% +0.05 +0.91%

[Roland99]

82. 2:22pm - Bernanke says energy prices bear watching....stocks SKYROCKET!!

DJIA 10,948.59 +131.67 +1.22%
Nasdaq 2,130.63 +44.63 +2.14%
S&P 500 1,248.27 +18.23 +1.48%
Dow Util 407.46 +3.51 +0.87%
NYSE 7,930.00 +149.67 +1.92%
AMEX 1,853.48 +39.37 +2.17%
Russell 2000 696.90 +19.81 +2.93%
Semcond 455.04 +15.71 +3.58%
Gold future 570.30 +3.80 +0.67%
30-Year Bond 5.13% +0.04 +0.87%
10-Year Bond 5.09% +0.04 +0.83%


Guess those energy prices should bear watching more often!

[wordpix2]

83. up 70 pts. because energy prices should bear watching? Geez

[stop the bleeding]

84. BOO!

it is amazing how the market reacts, I got stopped out today on my 2 Put plays :(, but I was able to turn around and sell a Naked Put for Friday's expiration :)

making lemonade out of lemons, what is crazy about the Puts is they were in 2 housing symbols, both that have been charting and playing really well no matter which way the market went, but after today's sector wide downgrade of the housing market they shot up like rockets - go figure. I guess people smell the blood in the water, and now they think is a good time to buy those housing stocks.

[Zynx]

85. The market was badly oversold.

This was particularly true in international markets.

[trogdor]

88. It ain't over.

Despite two days of sturdy gains, some analysts were skeptical about whether Wall Street has finally reversed course. Stocks are expected to remain volatile until the Fed issues its opinion on the economy's health at the June 28-29 policy meeting.

"I think the market is trying to look beyond any day's set of numbers and the next Fed comment and try to get a real assessment of how this inflection point in the economy is going to play out," said Jerry Webman, chief economist of Oppenheimer Funds. "The crosswinds are blowing in different directions - the question is how far they're going to push us."

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20060615/D8I8RHQ00.html

[stop the bleeding]

87. 200++ points

WOW, what a ride for today - yowzers

[ozone_man]

89. Panic buying.

;)

Setting up another opportunity to sell short.

[stop the bleeding]

91. yep

I have made the same buying and selling Puts lately as when I was buying and selling Calls in May

I just want the market to move - thats all ;)

[Clarkie1]

102. We are in a cyclical bull market, not a cyclical bear. n/t

[VegasWolf]

90. Gottta love Bush's incompetence!!! He's got the market schitzoid! I've

made great money day-trading the downs of the last month and the ups of the last few days. From my perspective, clowns like Bush and Co. who scare the market up and down like a yoyo are far superior to boring, really competent leaders who causes only minor market fluctuations. Any guesses if this is the start of a summer sucker rally, or just a bear-trap?

[ozone_man]

93. So you catch falling knives?

:)

The trend is my friend and I think it's going down, way down. There'll be many bounces on the way down, but I'm not sure I'd want to play the bounces when the trend is clear. Short term, the market was deeply oversold. Once that wears off, it should resume down IMO. Isn't that usually the way it works?

[VegasWolf]

94. Exactly! That is why I play micro-trends! With the 10 trillion dollar

deficit, the offshoring of our manufacturing base, the outsourcing of high tech jobs and the insourcing of no-tech jobs (illegal immigrants), the decline in the housing construction ( which is the only real growth I have seen in the last 5 years), the emerging dominance of China as number 1 in the world, and an insane leader pissing of all the oil producers (esp Venezulea and Iran ) such that they want the petro-dollar to be based in euros, I see no bright light at all. My thought that if someone wants to retire comfortably then just short sell everything, you can't go wrong that way. What is good about Bush is that he is so stupid, his constant false starts, foot in mouth statements, policy of devaluing the dollar, drives the market crazy. For day traders this is a dream come true! Can't we keep Bush for 4 more years until I have plenty of money!

:toast:

[ozone_man]

95. All markets moving in synch down.

Housing, SM, gold, all headed down, except the dollar (for now). Maybe when the DOW gets down below 10,000 there'll be a good bounce, maybe even a 1,000 points, but after that, wooosh! :toast:

[wordpix2]

97. !

[wordpix2]

96. but---you are neglecting we the people---demanding clean energy, science

technology, organic food and cleaning products, clean water, high mpg cars, recycled products and so on. The consumer is getting smarter and there is still need for innovation, and money to be made on certain stocks, if you can find the right ones. That is why the experts say, "Stay for the long term, go more conservative as you get older."

No one can time the market unless he has insider trading knowledge. Bill Frist, BushCheney, Rummy, do you hear me? Your insider knowledge about the oil industry, health care and insurance industries is questionable.

[ozone_man]

98. Finding the winners in a downhill market

is a challenge. it's much easier to find the losers in a downhill market. In the 1990's, almost everyone who was a long was a winner. In the 2000's, almost everyone who is a short will be a winner, long term that is. The trend is your friend, you just have to know which way the trend is.

Doesn't it make more sense to get in at the bottom, after it has been established? Now, if we only knew where that bottom was. I have a good idea, but I'm not telling, it would spoil the surprise. :)

[stop the bleeding]

99. I trade in the trend as well and

ever since the head and shoulders on the DJIA just a few weeks ago I have known that we are in a down market, this coupled with the next 2 rate hikes and probably some weaker 2Q earnings due to higher energy will make the market "scared/unstable" for at least past August,now can I try at the spoiler?

You commented earlier about a Whooosh past 10K which I agree based on my charting the 10K-10500 mark is a point of possible support based on past resistance and support in this area, now if we Whooosh past the 10K mark then the only thing between 10K and nowhere is the 8K-7500 mark. Now if I when the prize lets hope people are able to sell short or by in the money puts with 4++ weeks until expiration to make $$ on the way down.

Up until the downgrade today in the housing sector the Put plays that I have been using were working quite well, but even after getting stopped out today I am up 10-15% for the month. Also I was able to sell a Naked Put play today that will expire on Friday for a good chunk of change :)

The best thing about a down market is stocks generally fall 66% faster than they climb so the ability to make faster $$$ is easier once you chart the right ones.

You talk like some traders I know hmmmm.

[ozone_man]

104. You're getting warm

If there was a prize, I'd offer it. :)

I guess it depends what time frame you're looking for that mark, but I think we'll hit that within 2 years. But, I'm still not sayng what my final target is. I'm bearish, but I don't think unrealistically so. I don't think the bear market that began in 2000 ever got a chance to bottom out before the interest rates were lowered to zero, the war economy deficit spending, etc. So here we are approaching that bubble situation again, i.e. 2000, but with some different circumstances, such as the home equity being tapped out and real estate is no longer a shelter, very large personal debt, in addition to our national debt. It's a house of cards waiting to collapse. I don't really do any day trading, except on the occasion where market timing requires a change in positions. I have a day job (engineering).

Shorts are a necessary balance to keep the market from being over priced. Just feel sorry for the 401Kers who will be hit when things really start to go down.

[Clarkie1]

101. The Bottom was the Tuesday close.

Sorry if I spoiled your "surprise." I expect it is likely to be tested.

:-)

[ozone_man]

103. Bottom, hah.

It's all perspective I guess. It was a bottom all right, but just for the week. My, what an optimist. :)

[Clarkie1]

106. I think it is likely to be tested, but I think it was the bottom

for this year. Like I said, I expect the S & P to trade in at least the mid-1300s by years end. Let's talk again next week.

Cheers.

[VegasWolf]

105. Sure you can. On any given day there are 40,000 stocks in play. I

look for the 2-3 stocks with high volume and that trade in a daily range of at least a dollar 1.50 a day. You can find these stocks every day. I want to wait for a upward drift if going long and the market is up and the stock is up and go in for 10 cents. 10 cents * 10,000 shares is a $1,000 dollars. Jump in the stream, ride it for 3 minutes and get the heck out. Not looking for a generalized pattern that works for all stocks all the time. That doesn't exist. This does.

[UpInArms]

92. closing numbers and rah-rah

Dow 11,015.19 +198.27 (+1.83%)
Nasdaq 2,144.15 +58.15 (+2.79%)
S&P 500 1,256.16 +26.12 (+2.12%)
10-Yr Bond 5.098 +0.48 (+0.95%)

NYSE Volume 2,752,905,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,275,660,000

On Thursday, stocks rallied even higher than the day before as government reports and encouraging commentary from Bernanke suggested the economy remains resilient.

Strong follow-through in stocks was seen at the onset of trading as a sense that the market is still oversold on a short-term basis continued to attract bargain hunters on the heels of Wednesday's technical bounce. Recognition that stocks shrugged off a worrisome core-CPI report, and the understanding that the Fed will be raising rates again at its June 28-29 FOMC meeting, lent credence to the argument that a bottom had been reached. Before yesterday's relief rally got underway, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were trading 13% and 14.6% below their recent peaks, reflective of a technical "correction" that had also been realized in roughly two-third of the global markets. With major European bourses posting average gains of 2.0% and closing near session highs today, the stage was set for U.S. indices to follow suit.

In addition to material gains across the board in foreign markets and reasonable valuations, as the P/E ratio on the SnP 500 for operating earnings is only 15.5, investors showed a renewed sense of enthusiasm to get back into stocks that was supported a batch of encouraging economic data. Initial claims fell to 295,000, the lowest level since mid-February, which was reflective of strong labor conditions and a positive sign for the economy. Investors also sifted through strong reads on the NY Empire Index and Philadelphia Fed Index, which suggested that manufacturing remains on a decent growth path and acted as reminders that the nervousness in the financial markets did not necessarily translate into the real world economy. While the reports exacerbated nervousness in the Treasury market, as strong growth also fuel concerns about further Fed tightening to keep inflation in check, the reports were embraced by equity investors concerned about slowing economic growth.

Fueling a rising tide that lifted virtually every boat, as only 1 of the 147 SnP 500 industry groups did not partake in today's broad-based rally, were remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke. While Bernanke said that commodity price hikes contribute some to recent core inflation, he also reassured investors that the impact of higher energy prices will probably be "manageable" and that the economy remains resilient despite the drag of higher oil on households - testimony that traders used as the latest justification to keep on buying. To wit, the Dow was up a respectable 80 points before Bernanke spoke but climbed as much 219 points as short covering assisted in the indices breaking through key resistance levels, further suggesting that the bears had all but gone into hibernation... at least for the time being. We still don't believe a sustained rally is likely and maintain a Neutral view until the market gets an indication that inflation is easing and that the end of Fed tightening is more visible.

Of the ten economic sectors posting respectable gains, Energy and Materials again turned in the best overall performances as weakness in the greenback made dollar-denominated commodities like oil and gold more attractive. Financials, which failed to participate in yesterday's rally and left many questioning the sustainability of the market's gains in the absence of its leadership, and another rebound in Technology -- the year's worst performing sector -- were the most influential sectors to the upside. Despite a continued slide in Treasuries lifting bond yields, the rate-sensitive Financials sector got its biggest boost from a huge rebound in brokerage. All 12 components in the PHLX Securities Broker/Dealer Index surged, benefiting in large part from a third straight record quarter from Bear Stearns (BSC 131.33 +7.13), which plays into our favorable opinion on brokers.

Technology was strong across the board, led by a 4.2% surge in semiconductor. All 19 components in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index closed higher with Marvell Technology (MRVL 52.19 +3.46), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, leading the charge with a 7% gain. Industrials also provided some influential leadership, getting a lift from Caterpillar (CAT 70.85 +3.37), which reiterated FY06 EPS guidance and raised its dividend, and strong follow-through buying in Boeing (BA 84.81 +2.80), which added 3.4% to Wednesday's 6.5% surge.DJ30 +198.27 NASDAQ +58.16 SP500 +26.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 604/2482/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 626/2672/1.81 bln

:hi:

[Clarkie1]

100. Today was the turning point for the market this year.

We have experienced the presidential off-year election cycle low, and now the cyclical bull market should continue through the rest of the year. Look for the S&P to trade at least in the mid-1300s by the end of the year.

Cheers!