STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 12 June

[ozymandius]

Monday June 12, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 954 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1997 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1697 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1658
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 9, 2006

Dow... 10,891.92 -46.90 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq... 2,135.06 -10.26 (-0.48%)
S&P 500... 1,252.30 -5.63 (-0.45%)
Gold future... 612.80 -1.00 (-0.16%)
30-Year Bond 5.03% -0.03 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.98% -0.01 (-0.22%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Change in the Making

Back in late April I warned that there were important non-confirmations in place that had historically proceeded important down turns. We have also been following the badly lagging internals. I have explained that both the non-confirmations and the poor internals were indications of changes that were in the making. These changes are now just beginning to materialize.

-cut-

This brings us to today and we have now had the additional leg down that the cyclical phasing was suggesting. Furthermore, we are now in the window of opportunity in which an intermediate-term bounce can begin. This will probably coincide with the typical “Summer rally.” Unless things turn down much harder than what is now anticipated, this bounce should serve to retest the May highs and last long enough to erase many of the fears that this initial break may have caused. This rally should lull the unsuspecting masses back to sleep.

Based on the evidence at hand today, I look for the coming Summer rally to be a failed rally that will serve as a bull trap. Once that trap is sprung, all the things that have not mattered like the poor internals, the bearish Primary trend under Dow theory, the other important non-confirmations and so forth, should begin to matter in spite of the “Liquidity Factor.” This is when the pain that I discussed as being scheduled for later in 2006 should begin to be widely felt. In the meantime, things are setting up to make this initial leg down look like the typical buy-the-dip correction that has been occurring since this mammoth rally separating Phase I from Phase II began.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[stop the bleeding]

17. Man you guys are good! - Morning y'all

and Thank you!

[ozymandius]

2. One report today

2:00 PM Treasury Budget May
Briefing Forecast -$39.0B
Market Expects -$36.6B
Prior -$35.4B

[UpInArms]

66. U.S. May federal deficit $42.8 billion (Yikes!)

2:00 PM ET 6/12/06 U.S. MAY FEDERAL OUTLAYS $235.5 BLN VS. $188.2 BLN

2:00 PM ET 6/12/06 U.S. MAY FEDERAL RECEIPTS $192.7 BLN VS. $152.7 BLN

2:00 PM ET 6/12/06 U.S. 2006 FEDERAL DEFICIT $227 BILLION YEAR-TO-DATE

2:00 PM ET 6/12/06 U.S. MAY FEDERAL DEFICIT $42.8 BILLION VS. $35.4 BILLION

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD2232F85%2DD175%2D444B%2DBBD9%2D93B6CAEB4B3C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The federal budget deficit widened to $42.8 billion in May from $35.4 billion in May 2005, the Treasury Department said Monday. Timing of certain benefit payments accounted for the increase compared with last year. Receipts in May were $192.7 billion vs. $152.7 billion a year ago. Outlays were $235.5 billion compared with $188.1 billion last year. For the fiscal year to date, the federal government has run a deficit of $227 billion, compared with $272.4 billion at this time a year ago.

[Ghost Dog]

69. Are they trying to get the bulk of the bad news out now,

in order to attempt to stage-manage a 'recovery' in time for November? (ie. somehow sustain that 'summer rally' into the autumn, sorry, fall?) :bounce:

ed. And the culprit is: "certain benefit payments", ¿huh?

[Roland99]

73. Hey, $50 billion less than last year. See? Those tax cuts are working!!

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices fall to $71.52 a barrel in Asia

SINGAPORE - Crude futures dipped Monday amid a measure of relief that Iran has accepted some parts of a Western offer aimed at getting the country to halt its nuclear program, even as it rejected others.

In its first specific comments on the incentive package, Iran said Sunday that the key issue of uranium enrichment — a process that can make nuclear fuel for a power plant or fissile material for an atomic bomb — needed clarification.

The incentives include promises that the United States and Europe will provide Iran nuclear technology and that Washington will join direct talks with Tehran.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Oil steady below $72 as first storm Alberto emerges

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil held below $72 a barrel on Monday as Tropical Storm Alberto, the first of what forecasters say will be an active Atlantic hurricane season, looked likely to miss U.S. oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

-cut-

U.S. light, sweet crude for July delivery edged 13 cents lower to $71.50 a barrel by 0610 GMT, having soared $1.28, or 2 percent, on Friday as continuing violence in
Iraq dashed hopes that the death of al Qaeda's leader there would turn the tide for the country's struggling oil sector.

Brent crude rose 2 cents to $70.50 a barrel.

With the memory of last year's devastating hurricanes Katrina and Rita still fresh, oil traders are on alert for any threat to Gulf of Mexico infrastructure through the hurricane season, which runs for six months.

Although one oil firm evacuated a deepwater platform due to Alberto, which was formally named on Sunday after wind speeds picked up, most forecast tracks showed the storm heading for Florida, safely east of Gulf Coast rigs and refineries.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Survey: Gas prices about flat over 3 weeks

CAMARILLO, Calif. - U.S. gasoline prices were virtually flat over the last three weeks, according to a survey released Sunday.

The average nationwide price for a gallon of self-serve regular was $2.9328 on Friday, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations across the country. The previous Lundberg Survey, completed May 19, showed the price at $2.9330 cents a gallon, according to analyst Trilby Lundberg.

more

[UpInArms]

37. July Crude @ $71.80 bbl - July NatGas @ $6.19 mln btus

10:18 AM ET 6/12/06 JULY CRUDE CLIMBS 17 CENTS TO $71.80/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:18 AM ET 6/12/06 JULY NATURAL GAS UP 1.8 CENTS, OR 0.3%, AT $6.19/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

48. July Crude @ $70.95 bbl - July NatGas @ $6.195 mln btus

12:08 PM ET 6/12/06 JULY CRUDE DOWN 1% TO $70.95/BRL AFTER $72.32 OVERNIGHT HIGH

12:08 PM ET 6/12/06 JULY NATURAL GAS UP 2.3 CENTS, OR 0.4%, AT $6.195/MLN BTUS

[54anickel]

58. U.S. deficit is a global risk, G-8 warns (Russia flexing energy muscles)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/06/11/business/g8.php

snip>

The statement called for greater investment in the development of oil fields as a long-term solution to high energy prices. More investment would bring more oil onto the market and eventually lower prices at the gasoline pump, the statement suggested.

snip>

Russia, which will be the host of a G-8 conference for the first time, chose energy security as its theme. Ministers in Vladimir Putin's government have said it is committed to ensuring stable oil prices for big consuming countries like the United States, making a promise of price relief through greater supply - but with a catch.

Russia wants the large consuming countries to open their energy retail and distribution markets to Russian companies in exchange for allowing foreign investment in Russia.

This quid pro quo is expected to be an obstacle as the summit approaches, with Britain and other European nations resisting efforts by Russia's state- owned Gazprom monopoly to buy other energy companies in Europe.

Putin recently likened Russia's potential for increased energy production to a piece of candy that the whole world wanted. But he said it would be held in Russia's "sweaty fist" unless other countries were willing to offer investment opportunities in return.

more...

[UpInArms]

71. July Crude @ $70.35 bbl - Opec Output numbers:

2:11 PM ET 6/12/06 MAY OPEC CRUDE OUTPUT AVERAGES 29.75 MLN BRLS/DAY: PLATTS

2:11 PM ET 6/12/06 MAY OPEC ESTIMATE UP 120,000 BRLS/DAY VS. APRIL: PLATTS

2:11 PM ET 6/12/06 JULY CRUDE LAST DOWN $1.28, OR 1.8%, AT $70.35/BRL

[ozymandius]

6. More choppiness expected on markets as rising interest rates quash enthusi

More choppiness expected on markets as rising interest rates quash enthusiasm

TORONTO (CP) - Investors should brace themselves for a choppy summer of trading and get used to the end of the days of cheap money.

"My suspicion is we have a ways to go," said John Johnston, chief strategist at The Harbour Group at RBC Dominion Securities. "And we're going to see some softness through the summer." Global stock markets were sent reeling last week after U.S.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke stunned investors in saying the central bank would remain vigilant on inflation.

That came as a shock to many who were expecting the central bank to take a pause in raising interest rates after two years of steady quarter point hikes.

But it's not just the rising rate environment in the U.S. that has investors worried - it's the trend to higher rates around the world.

more

[ozymandius]

7. MARKET OUTLOOK: Investor worries likely to carry over

Wall Street suffered its worst week so far this year as interest rate worries haunted investors and gave the major indexes a substantial beating. The Dow Jones industrials shed 356 points, the Nasdaq composite index widened its loss for 2006 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index now lingers just above the flatline.

And the market's nervousness likely will extend to the week ahead, which brings a raft of economic numbers critical to the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. As in the past, data that is too hot or too cold could give stocks a sharp move in either direction.

Ever since late last year, investors have been watching inflation data for signals that the Fed has hiked rates enough to contain price increases. Over the past two years, the central bank has nudged the nation's key short-term lending rate 16 consecutive times to a current level of 5%.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060612/BUSINESS07/606120368/1020/BUSINESS

[ozymandius]

10. Bernanke lacks the Midas touch

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid back below the 11 000 mark in early trading on Tuesday after falling nearly 200 points on Monday, as Ben Bernanke’s baptism of fire as chairperson of the United States Federal Reserve prompted a fresh bout of jitters on Wall Street.

In less than a month, the indicator of US blue chip stocks has fallen by more than 700 points amid concerns that the man running the world’s most important central bank lacks the sure touch of his predecessor, Alan Greenspan.

Nobody said it was going to be easy for Bernanke. All the financial sages of Manhattan warned that Greenspan was a tough act to follow after more than 18 years in the Federal hot seat. Just how tough has been starkly illustrated this week.

Wall Street has been unimpressed by Bernanke’s attempts to manipulate market sentiment. He has received scant credit for trying to be more transparent in his dealings with the market -- a culture shift from Greenspan’s delphic utterances.

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=274219&area=/insight/insight__economy__business/

[girl gone mad]

90. Just as many suspected..

Bernanke will take the blows for cleaning up Greenspan's mess.

No good deed goes unpunished.

[Ghost Dog]

13. BIS says asset risk worries behind markets fall

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b336bbd0-f972-11da-8ced-0000779e2340.html

(FT) Share prices have been falling in recent weeks because investors have become more nervous about risky assets. not because the outlook for companies has worsened, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the co-ordinating bank for the world’s central banks.

The ongoing turmoil in global financial markets is almost entirely due to a re-pricing of risk rather than any fundamental change in the intrinsic value of assets, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

<snip>

However research by the BIS casts doubt on the popular perception that the sell-off has been caused by worries over rising global inflation and interest rates or by concerns that global growth is slowing.

“We don’t find much evidence for a change in the intrinsic value of assets. Fundamentals did not change in any significant way in mid-May,” said Christian Upper, senior economist at the BIS, which fosters international monetary and financial co-operation and serves as a bank for central banks.

“Rather than a reassessment of fundamentals, the drop in the price of higher risk assets seemed to represent a weakening of investors’ appetite for risk. This resulted in a reallocation of portfolios in favour of highly rated instruments such as government bonds.”

/more...

[54anickel]

64. Ben Bernanke and Meat Powder (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060612.htm

Ivan Pavlov was an accidental psychologist. The Russian scientist was actually interested in stomach ailments and the digestive systems of dogs. In order to study their saliva, he would offer them meat powder. At one point, Pavlov noticed that some of his dogs would start to salivate as soon as he walked into the room, but it only happened with dogs that had been in the laboratory. So he paired a bell with the meat powder, and showed that after a while, the dogs could be made to salivate just by ringing the bell.

Investors who experienced the 1987 market crash might remember that for months after that event, the market would get extreme jitters every time the trade balance was about to be released. The reason is that when the market crashed, investors and journalists looked for the news of that specific day to explain the move, and all they could find was a bad trade number. And just like pairing meat powder with a bell, pairing the market crash with a bad trade number made investors hypersensitive to trade numbers for months.

Investors are now pairing Ben Bernanke with the market's recent weakness as if they are legitimate cause and effect. Don't blame Bernanke. Make no mistake – the recent pullback has little to do with the Federal Reserve except that it creates enough of an excuse for the inevitable to happen. Are we actually to believe that the economy is so precariously perched on pins and needles that one single quarter-point move too-many in the Fed Funds rate means the difference between a continued economic “boom” and an economy driven to its knees? And if the economy is in fact that vulnerable, shouldn't investors be selling stocks anyway based on the prospective risks?

Look. Probable market weakness has been baked into the cake for months – resulting from a combination of unfavorable valuations, weakening internals, and speculation in low quality stocks. Nor does the historically insignificant wiggle that we've seen in the past few weeks do much to resolve those issues. That doesn't mean that stocks should or must decline in the immediate future, but it does mean that the problems for the market (being, as it is, still priced to deliver disappointingly low long-term returns) remain yet be resolved. (There's that “yet” word again).

Personally, I feel a little bad for Bernanke – though as I noted in the October 31, 2005 comment, he more or less invited all of this criticism by focusing on an inflation target which can't, in fact, be controlled by the Fed, and can only be measured effectively with a lag. Remember that the Fed does nothing except determine whether government liabilities will be held by the public in the form of bonds or in the form of cash (currency and bank reserves). The actual quantity of those government liabilities is not under the Fed's control, but is controlled by Congress through its fiscal policies. If fiscal policy makers insist on creating a flood of government liabilities (as they currently are), the Fed's decisions will have extremely little importance or impact in avoiding the resulting inflation. The Fed's policies are important when there is a panic for liquidity, such as bank runs and financial crises, but unless bank liquidity is actually constrained (and it doesn't appear to be presently), the Fed's moves are largely irrelevant.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

75. Excellent. Never underestimate the (temporary) power

of the (higher-brainless) 'Pavlovian Response'.

...But it is possible to attain to, and to obtain, much more profound psychic states... :smoke:

[Ghost Dog]

8. Japan revised figures show economy growing faster than expected

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060612/afp/060612074425business.html

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan has sharply upgraded its first quarter growth to 3.1 percent on an annualized basis, putting the long slumping Asian giant in the ranks of the industrialized world's top performers.

Backed by rising domestic investment, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.8 percent in the three months to March from the previous quarter, faster than the initial estimate of 0.5 percent growth, the Cabinet Office said.On an annualized basis, the Japanese economy grew 3.1 percent, up from 1.9 percent in the preliminary estimate, it said.

The revision showed that Japan is firmly on the recovery track, putting its decade-long slump from the early 1990s further behind it. By comparison, the White House estimates 3.6 percent growth in the United States in 2006.

<snip>

The revised GDP figures showed a sharp growth in non-residential investment, a key measure of corporate capital spending, which jumped 3.1 percent quarter-on-quarter, up sharply from the earlier estimate of 1.4 percent.

"What is good about it is that investment among large non-manufacturers, such as real estate developers, is improving, reaching its best level in years. This reflects solid domestic demand," said Tatsuya Torikoshi, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. He said the growth figures showed that the economy is less dependent on overseas economies -- an encouraging trend given the market slump had been triggered by concers over the US outlook. "Even if the US economy weakens, the Japanese economy will still be supported to some extent by domestic demand which would work as a shock absorber," Torikoshi said.

However, consumer confidence slipped in May as a growing number of Japanese said that general economic well-being was falling, a survey from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. The confidence index dropped to 49.8 percent from April's 50 percent, which was the best reading in nearly 16 years. A rating above 50 percent means more consumers see improvement rather than deterioration.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

9. Bargain hunting pushes Tokyo shares higher for 2nd straight day

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060612/kyodo/d8i6hfk00.html

(Kyodo) Tokyo stocks gained Monday for the second straight trading day as investors bought paper, oil and other shares that looked undervalued following the market's recent sharp sell-off.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 82.17 points, or 0.56 percent, to 14,833.01. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose 12.21 points, or 0.81 percent, to 1,510.89.

The Tokyo market opened lower in line with Friday's falls in U.S. shares, with the benchmark Nikkei turning in a nearly 170-point loss at one time in early deals. But once the initial selling ran its course, bargain-hunting grew, giving a lift to the market toward the end of the day's session.

<snip>

Advancing issues outpaced declining ones 1,321 to 326, with 51 shares ending unchanged.

Brokers said the upward revision of Japanese gross domestic product data, released shortly before the market opened, underlined the solid footing of the domestic economy, together with better-than-expected machinery orders data for April, released Friday.

<snip>

Trading volume on the TSE's main section came to 1,959.28 million shares, down from Friday's 3,168.55 million shares.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

14. China racks up record trade surplus in May

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-06-12T075731Z_01_PEK269404_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHINA-UPDATE-2.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China raked in a record monthly trade surplus of $13.0 billion in May, but analysts said Beijing was unlikely to respond by allowing the yuan to rise at a faster pace despite concerns about global economic imbalances.

The gap was much bigger than a year-earlier $9 billion and contributed to a cumulative surplus in the first five months of $46.8 billion. That compared with around $30 billion in the same period of 2005.

<snip>

"The trade surplus is very much a structural problem and adjusting the exchange rate alone will not resolve the problem," said Wang Chuanglian, economist at Great Wall Fund Management in Shenzhen.

"The structural adjustments pledged by the government, such as reducing the savings rate and boosting consumption, will need time to show their effects," he said.

<snip>

But analysts expressed concern that growth in money supply, resulting in part from central bank efforts to hold down the currency by selling yuan, could spill over into asset price inflation.

Official media reported last week that annual M2 money supply growth had accelerated in May to 19.5 percent, running well above the central bank's 2006 growth target of 16 percent.

Economists were ambivalent over May consumer price data released on Monday that showed prices up 1.4 percent over a year earlier, picking up slightly from 1.2 percent in April's data.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

15. Yuan falls vs dollar, ignores trade surplus

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060612:MTFH61442_2006-06-12_10-16-46_PEK215935&type=comktNews&rpc=44

SHANGHAI, June 12 (Reuters) - The Chinese yuan weakened against a globally stronger U.S. dollar on Monday, and dealers said the announcement of a record Chinese trade surplus for May had no impact on trade.

The yuan <CNY=CFXS> closed at 8.0188 to the dollar, down from Friday's close of 8.0112, even after the People's Bank of China set the mid-point of the yuan's exchange rate slightly stronger at 8.0161 on Monday from Friday's mid-point of 8.0180.

<snip>

But "the record surplus won't have a major impact on the yuan's exchange rate because the rate isn't wholly decided by the market", said a dealer at a second foreign bank. "The central bank's polices will have a bigger influence than trade data."

Chinese officials have been arguing against any dramatic appreciation of the yuan for fear of hurting export sectors and fuelling job losses.

The yuan has stopped appreciating since May 15, when it hit an intraday high of 7.9972, its strongest level in a dozen years. The standstill has undermined the previous conventional wisdom in the market that Beijing would continuously permit a slow but steady rise in the yuan, fuelled by China's massive trade surplus and burgeoning inward investment.

<snip>

After its latest weakness, the yuan has now appreciated only 1.14 percent against the dollar since its revaluation in July last year, compared with a peak of 1.41 percent on May 15.

Because China's central bank announces a reference rate for yuan trade every day and can intervene in the market indirectly through state banks, it retains great power to influence the exchange rate.

[Ghost Dog]

11. Europe extends early losses

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9433f942-f9df-11da-b7ff-0000779e2340.html
Published: June 12 2006 07:50 | Last updated: June 12 2006 10:23

European equity markets extended their early losses by mid-morning on Monday after Wall Street closed lower on Friday, capping the worst week in more than a year for the US market.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 4.4 points or 0.3 per cent to 1,271.93 while the German Xetra Dax lost 29.4 points or 0.5 per cent to 5,434.69 and the French CAC 40 declined 23.6 points or 0.5 per cent to 4,744.92.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

43. Miners drag European stocks down; M&A in focus

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-12T111635Z_01_L12347977_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML
Mon Jun 12, 2006 12:16 PM BST

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - European shares languished in negative territory on Monday as interest rate and economic growth fears showed no signs of weakening their grip, with miners leading the slide as copper remained under pressure.

Takeover activity continued to bubble away, with Arcelor (CELR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) falling after Mittal Steel (ISPA.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) ruled out improving the financial terms of its bid, while Misys (MSY.L: Quote, Profile, Research) tumbled as potential bids emerged for the software firm.

"Although we are bullish about the prospects for European equities, we think optimism about the economy and earnings has peaked," said Ian Scott, strategist at Lehman Brothers, in a note. "We think the recent deleveraging 'event' may be close to an end, equity market fundamentals should now take over with bullish implications."

By 1058 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares was down 0.6 percent at 1,268.6 points, after rallying 1.7 percent on Friday. The index is about 10 percent below its near five-year high of 1,407.5 points hit a month ago.

/more guff, detail...

[Ghost Dog]

68. M&A in the spotlight as European stocks end down

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-12T164012Z_01_L12708566_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-5.XML
Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:40 PM BST

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - European stocks ended lower on Monday in cautious trade as interest rate and economic growth fears continued to haunt investors, with mining, chemicals and insurance stocks leading the slide.

Takeover activity continued to bubble away, with Arcelor (CELR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) falling after agreeing to calls from rebel shareholders to vote on its planned Severstal (CHMF.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) deal, while Centrica (CNA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) gained on press reports Russia's Gazprom had approached the UK government about taking a stake.

"Sentiment is really bad right now; the recent stock market performance is the worst I've seen in the last couple of years," said Philipp Musil, fund manager at Constantia Privatbank.

"The valuations are quite good. For me it's a screaming buy, but don't forget it's June, and we have this football championship; nobody cares about equities right now."

The pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares closed down 0.8 percent at 1,265.8 points, after rallying 1.7 percent on Friday. The index is about 10 percent below its near five-year high of 1,407.5 points hit a month ago.

Around Europe, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> ended down 1.3 percent, while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> dropped 0.9 percent, and Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> slid 0.6 percent.

Oslo's OBX index <.OBX> was sold off sharply, closing down 2.8 percent.
Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:40 PM BST

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - European stocks ended lower on Monday in cautious trade as interest rate and economic growth fears continued to haunt investors, with mining, chemicals and insurance stocks leading the slide.

Takeover activity continued to bubble away, with Arcelor (CELR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) falling after agreeing to calls from rebel shareholders to vote on its planned Severstal (CHMF.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) deal, while Centrica (CNA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) gained on press reports Russia's Gazprom had approached the UK government about taking a stake.

"Sentiment is really bad right now; the recent stock market performance is the worst I've seen in the last couple of years," said Philipp Musil, fund manager at Constantia Privatbank.

"The valuations are quite good. For me it's a screaming buy, but don't forget it's June, and we have this football championship; nobody cares about equities right now."

The pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares closed down 0.8 percent at 1,265.8 points, after rallying 1.7 percent on Friday. The index is about 10 percent below its near five-year high of 1,407.5 points hit a month ago.

Around Europe, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> ended down 1.3 percent, while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> dropped 0.9 percent, and Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> slid 0.6 percent.

Oslo's OBX index <.OBX> was sold off sharply, closing down 2.8 percent.

/more fear/greed detail...

[Ghost Dog]

12. Gold inches down, demand falls on weak stocks

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-12T044604Z_01_T296445_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-1.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=3
Mon Jun 12, 2006 5:45 AM BST
(Updates to afternoon)
By Chikafumi Hodo

TOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - Gold edged down on Monday after rising modestly on short covering in early trade as investors were careful about chasing prices actively due to the recent strength of the dollar and weakness in global equity markets.

Gold was vulnerable to further liquidations, with falls in industrial metals, such as copper, also weighing on sentiment.

Around 0404 GMT, spot gold was at $605.00/605.70 an ounce, down from $605.45/606.45 late in New York on Friday.

Early rounds of short covering pushed up the spot price to a session high of $609 an ounce, but the buying mood quickly ran out of steam after some profit-taking orders around $610, traders said.

"$600 is seen as an important level, but there is no strong factor to be confident that level would be supported," said Shuji Sugata, assistant manager at Mitsubishi Corp. Futures and Securities Ltd.

"In this kind of mood, the market wants to keep positions very light."

Sugata said active, follow-through selling would emerge should the spot price fell below $600.

/more...

[UpInArms]

16. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.05 Change +0.25 (+0.29%)

Dollar Denies Doom

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Trade_or_Fade_Jan_12_1149895196766.html

Only a week after a very disappointing NFP, dollar bulls were back with a vengeance as the unit gained across the board. In last week’s commentary we noted that “The only major positive for dollar bulls is the fact that positioning is in their favor as EUR longs reached records highs on IMM.” And euro longs were indeed caught flatfooted as the greenback scored the trifecta of positive news. First Bernanke and Co. came out of the gate with ultra hawkish rhetoric signaling that 5.25% was done deal. Next the surprising death of al-Zarqawi, Al Qaeda’s top man inIraq, provided an unexpected boost to dollar bulls. And finally, the much anticipated press conference by Jean Paul Trichet turned into a rout for euro longs as the ECB President refused to unambiguously endorse rate hikes by the Central Bank. On Friday, the slightly narrower than expected Trade Balance temporarily pushed the pair below the 1.2600 figure fully 370 off its recent highs, but by midday Central Bank bargain hunting finally stabilized the decline.

Next week the US calendar shows nothing but red in the expectation column and unless the market sees some unexpected strength from Advanced Retail Sales or significantly higher CPI, - a distinct possibility, given the fact that rental costs have been inching up and comprise more than 30% of the index - the greenback counter trend rally will have a hard time moving past 1.2500 off these lackluster fundamentals.

...more...

Little Changed As Corrective Moves Near End

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Little_Changed_As_Corrective_Moves_1150105205840.html

EUR/USD – The destructive C wave (3rd wave of the correction of the rally to 1.2971) continues to unleash its power as the pair has fallen for the 5th straight day (first time since 1/30). A support zone below is bound by the 5/1 low of 1.2553 and 5/4 low of 1.2570 – which is the previous 4th wave of one less degree. Just below is the 38.2% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2535. These support levels could be the terminus for the correction from 1.2971. Strength contends with the 5/19 low of 1.2691and then the 6/1 low of 1.2721. Hourly oscillators favor a bounce in the short term, possibly to the 38.2% fibo of 1.2976-1.2624 at 1.2758 (if 1.2624 holds), as RSI has ascended above 30.

<snip>

USD/JPY – USD/JPY rallied to 114.72 and has since fallen off to just below the 100 day SMA at 114.05. Wave structure on the hourly is as follows – the current decline from 114.72 to 113.50 on Friday was likely a 4th wave decline and thus the current rally attempt is a 5th wave that could challenge 114.72 and beyond – potentially to the 61.8% fibo of 118.87-108.96 at 115.07 before a complete retracement of the decline to 108.96 is professed as complete. The structure of the correction from 108.96 is in A-B-C zigzag form with the current rally as the C wave. A property often seen in these corrections is the equality of the A and C waves - with the length of wave A equal to 398 pips (112.94-108.96) and wave C starting at 111.33, we find that 111.33 + 3.98 (398 pips) approximates an end to the overall correction at 115.31. This is very close to the 61.8% fibo level at 115.07 as well as the 4/26 high at 115.36.

<snip>

USD/CAD – Friday’s remarks that “wave C traded to 1.1243 so far but there is a possibility that the correction from 1.0969 is over” proved correct and USD/CAD has plummeted 200 pips since. As such, probability is high that the overall correction from 1.0969 is over. Further, Friday’s 178 pip decline is the largest since the 8/13/2004 224 pip decline. That decline marked the end of a correction and beginning of new downtrend. Resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.1217-1.1016 bear wave at 1.1092 with continued losses targeting the 5/31 low at 1.0927. Hourly RSI is rising from below 30 and favors a correction to 1.1092 before another impulsive move down.

...more...

[54anickel]

50. Looking At Data A Strange Way! (Today's Pfenning)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=773

snip>

First of all... Let me get this straight... The Trade Deficit did widen in April! Yes... It did, it did, I did see it widen, thus putting the deficit on track to set another new record in 2006... But what did the media and markets focus on? Get this baloney... They focused on the fact that it didn't widen as much as forecast! Excuse me for a minute, I'm going to go scream at the wall! We'll have to put this down as "Looking at data a strange way"!

OK, I'm back now, but still shaking my head at this thinking! The currencies deserved much better! The euro quickly sold off and then tried to recover, and did by about 3/4 of a cent... But the Asian session last night carried on with the dollar buying, as that 3/4 has been wiped out. The market's focus is really myopic right now... It is focusing on the higher interest rates scheduled for the U.S. at the next FOMC meeting, June 29th.

One currency that was not affected by the dollar buying was the belle of the ball, The Canadian dollar/loonie... The loonie got bid up quickly on Friday after it was announced that the Canadian economy generated 96,700 jobs in May! WOW! The job gains beat the "experts" forecast by almost 4 times! Canada's unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, the lowest level since December 1974. That data was great! But the thing that caught my eye was this... Canada's average hourly earnings ratcheted up at a 3.8% pace... Talk about an attention-getter for the Bank of Canada! There's another rate cut in those boys at the Bank of Canada, and this data just made them realize that!

snip>

Overnight, it was reported that China had posted a record $13 billion Trade Surplus in May! I guess we (U.S. consumers) just can't get enough, eh? Look at that surplus! That's $1 billion more than the previous record! This ought to make U.S. lawmakers (especially Schumer and Graham) a little red in the face... In fact, I bet there will be a few veins popping out of the necks of these guys! Oh... And one more thing regarding China... They also reported that inflation in May had accelerated rising 1.4% annually...

snip>

OK... In the U.S. this week, we'll see the color of the May Monthly Budget Statement today... Tomorrow we'll see the PPI and Retail Sales for May... The Butler Household Index (BHI) tells me that Retail Sales will be disappointing in May... We'll also see CPI on Wednesday and then my favorite piece of data, Capacity Utilization, along with Industrial Production on Thursday. However, Thursday's data will be dominated by the Net Foreign Security Purchases (NFPS), which is expected to be very disappointing right now... We'll finish the week with the Current Account Balance for the 1st QTR...

more...

[UpInArms]

53. they have been spinning the data now for so long, it has become

the Orwellian hell just attempting to remain sane.

Up is Down
Black is White
War is Peace

[Ghost Dog]

79. Setting themselves up for invasion there

(one way or the other).

I believe I read convincing information about invasion plans made some 50 years ago and constantly updated since then... In fact there are moves afoot right now, am I right?

All that liebensraum, all those resources. A moribund UK. And an arctic frontier essential to US National Security!

:silly:

[UpInArms]

18. Whackin' the Heartland: Johnson Controls Planning To Shut Missouri Plant

http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/for5/200606081621DOWJONESDJONLINE001045_FORTUNE5.htm

ALBANY, Mo. (AP)--Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI) plans to close the York Engineered Systems plant in Albany, Mo., eliminating the city's largest employer.

The plant, which makes commercial and industrial air handler units, employs 220 people in this city of 1,800. Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls, which bought York Engineered Systems in December, plans to lay off employees in phases, beginning in the fall, through May 2007.

Employees at the plant were told on Wednesday.

"We knew something was in the works when most of the upper management team started announcing they were leaving the ship two weeks ago for other jobs," said Penny Collier, a plant veteran of more than 17 years.

"This will cripple our community and the area," resident Robert Crockett said during a meeting called by community leaders Wednesday to formulate a response. "It's a man-made disaster."

<snip>

He said production is being shifted to a plant in Monterey, Mexico, and several undetermined U.S. locations.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Whirlpool signs application outsourcing pact w/ Accenture

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE66A82B0%2DFF89%2D4D69%2DBC3F%2D1657B9971C01%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Whirlpool Corp. (WHR : 84.25, -0.25, -0.3% ) Monday signed a five-year application outsourcing agreement with Accenture (ACN : 27.06, +0.02, +0.1% ) . The deal calls for Accenture to provide maintenance and support services for SAP software applications related demand chain, supply chain, human resources and finance at Whirlpool operations in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia. Financial terms weren't disclosed. Whirlpool shares closed Friday at $84.25, down 25 cents, while Accenture's stock finished at $27.06, up 2 cents.

[UpInArms]

20. Treasuries softer, wary of inflation boogeyman

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-12T123850Z_01_N12303734_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices eased modestly on Monday as investors grew reluctant to buy bonds at the start of a week packed with potentially troubling inflation data.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear last week he would rather err on the side of caution by tightening monetary policy further, even at the risk of slower growth, if it means preventing a broader flare up of inflation.

"Given Chairman Bernanke's emphasis on transparency, it would be wrong to dismiss recent Fed commentary merely as rhetorical posturing," said Bruce Kasman, senior economist at JP Morgan.

With producer inflation figures out on Tuesday and the consumer price index due on Wednesday, jittery traders took benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> 5/32 lower for a yield of 5.00 percent, up from 4.98 percent last week.

The market will be particularly keen to see what sort of growth consumer prices, excluding food and energy, chalked up for the month of May. It was an oversized gain in April core prices that sent Treasuries reeling and kickstarted a slide in global stock markets that has yet to let up.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Fed's Pianalto says troubled by rise in inflation

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-12T133413Z_01_WAT005792_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-PIANALTO-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 12 (Reuters) - Recent news on U.S. inflation has been troubling, but if the economy moderates as forecast, a federal funds rate of 5 percent is near a point that will gradually improve the inflation outlook, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday.

"The core CPI (the consumer price index excluding food and energy) has increased at an annualized rate of more than 3 percent during the past three months. This inflation picture, if sustained, exceeds my comfort level," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said in a speech.

But in remarks made available to the media prior to delivery, she acknowledged the U.S. central bank had already increased borrowing costs some distance and that policymakers may have done enough to control prices.

"There is, after all, a time lag between monetary policy actions and their ultimate effect on inflation. That is, even though the recently reported inflation numbers have been edging upward, I think that the current 5 percent level of the federal funds rate is near a point that is consistent with a gradual improvement in the inflation outlook," she said.

...a bit more...

[Ghost Dog]

80. "Near Point" n/t

[UpInArms]

30. Printing Press Hums: Fed added reserves via overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-12T133313Z_01_N12342865_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Monday said that it added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds traded at 5 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate, at the time of the operations.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm

[UpInArms]

46. Presses Whirling Faster: Fed bought coupons, adding permanent reserves

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-12T154018Z_01_N12417646_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday that it bought coupons, adding $1.316 billion in permanent reserves to the banking system.

The Fed bought coupons with maturities ranging from March 31, 2008 to January 15, 2009. There were six exclusions.

Fed funds traded at 5 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate, at the time of the operations.

For further details on the operation, see http://ftp.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm

[UpInArms]

21. Lehman second-quarter earnings rise 47 pct

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-12T123004Z_01_N12287701_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-LEHMANBROTHERS-EARNS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday its quarterly earnings jumped 47 percent, driven by sharp gains in revenue from trading and investment banking.

Lehman, the fourth largest U.S. investment bank by market capitalization, said earnings were $1.0 billion, or $1.69 a share, for the fiscal second-quarter ended May 31, up from $683 million, or $1.13 a share, a year earlier. The year-ago per share is adjusted to reflect a two-for-one stock split in the 2006 second quarter.

Revenue rose 35 percent to $4.41 billion from $3.28 billion in the year-earlier quarter.

Lehman Brothers, once considered mainly a bond house, has built up a strong mergers advisory business in recent years. The company's shares have risen more than 90 percent since August 2004.

But the stock has fallen 15 percent since April 27, compared with a roughly 10 percent decline in the broader sector, as investors have grown increasingly concerned that global inflation and rising interest rates could cut into Lehman's businesses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Furniture Brands to close NC Plant - 700 jobs disappear (updated- grrrrr!)

9:07am 06/12/06 CORRECT: Furniture Brands expects 6c charge in Q3 - MarketWatch.com

9:06am 06/12/06 Furniture Brands expects 1c charge in Q2 - MarketWatch.com

9:05am 06/12/06 Furniture Brands unit to close NC plant and cut 700 jobs - MarketWatch.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB0BC7F34%2D6643%2D4D51%2DB065%2D772FCDF4FBB6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Furniture Brands International (FBN : 20.89, +0.88, +4.4% ) Monday said its Broyhill Furniture unit plans to close its Pacemaker case goods manufacturing facility in Lenoir, N.C. The company said the plant has about 700 employees, and that it will cease operations in August. Furniture plans to record charges totaling about $5.1 million from the closure. Net of the income tax benefit, the charges will total about $3.3 million, or 7 cents a share, from the closure. The charges will be recorded in the company's second and third quarters. Furniture Brands' shares closed Friday at $20.89, up 4.4%.

:wtf: Income tax benefit??????

Stock goes up while people are ruined?????

:nuke:

[UpInArms]

25. Broyhill Furniture To Lay Off Nearly 700

http://www.wxii12.com/news/9354209/detail.html

LENOIR, N.C. -- Broyhill Furniture will close a plant in Lenoir next month and lay off 692 workers because of competition from other countries.

Some employees will lose their jobs by Aug. 9 but others will stay on until mid-September to clean the plant and get it ready for sale or storage.

Company spokesman said the closing is the result of competitive pressure in a global marketplace.

After the layoffs, Broyhill will have about 1,900 workers. The company has cut about 1,000 jobs and closed five plants since January 2005.

[KoKo]

41. And the great Globilization marches on.....

while we make plans for which country to invade next. After all gotta keep the Military/Government going...because it's all we have left for job growth.

It's really sickening isn't it? Chalmers Johnson ("Sorrows of Empire") last night on C-Span,was talking about all we make anymore is weapons and sell them worldwide fulfilling Eisenhower's prophecy of the vast Military/Industrial complex. He said it's so out of control that he doesn't think any President will be able to stop it.

But, a President with a vision could do alot with the power that the Bushies have given the Executive Office.

[Ghost Dog]

44. I'm not sure 'Presidents with (that kind of) vision' are permitted

in the USA anymore, especially because of the kind of power that the Bushies have given (not only to) the Executive Office.

Cf. eg. this data re. "RFK's Last Words" here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1396182#1398638

(and surrounding thread: sorry, I'm only just now catching up with the latest in this regard, reading/viewing more...).

ed. And see here: http://jfkmurdersolved.com/index1.htm

[UpInArms]

23. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.8. Futures trade is now off its best levels and signal more of a flat open for equities. Even if there is a bounce today following the broader market's biggest weekly loss in more than a year, its apparent that investors still need a greater confidence that inflation is not picking up significantly and that stocks can find a reasonable bottom. Unfortunately for the bulls, today's only economic release – the May Treasury Budget – won't have any market impact as investors brace themselves for Wednesday's influential CPI data to offer the best read on inflation.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures indications continue to improve as the opening bell approaches. Lehman Brothers (LEH) kicking off a limited week of earnings with a 47% rise in Q2 profits may be offsetting some of the concerns tied to rising global interest rates and slowing economic growth. Potential clues about monetary policy, as Fed Chairman Bernanke prepares to make his first of three speeches over the next four days this afternoon, may also be offering some early solace.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures versus fair value are signaling stocks will rebound modestly amid a sense that an average decline of 3.3% for the major indices last week was overdone. However, with nothing in the way of notable earnings reports, no typical Monday-morning activity on the merger and acquisition front coupled with key inflation reports (PPI and CPI) hitting the wires over the next two days, early gains are modest at best.

[stop the bleeding]

24. Thank you UIA

let the games begin ;)

[UpInArms]

26. g'morning stb!

:hi:

Should be another interesting week ;)

[UpInArms]

27. 9:41 EST wheels spinning

Dow 10,917.21 +25.29 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,130.06 -5.00 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,253.51 +1.21 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.993 +0.12 (+0.24%)

NYSE Volume 92,831,000
Nasdaq Volume 86,554,000

9:40 AM ET 6/12/06 <$INDU> DOW INDUSTRIALS DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 21 TO 9

9:40 AM ET 6/12/06 NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 7 TO 6

9:40 AM ET 6/12/06 NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 17 TO 7

[Roland99]

28. Dec/Adv is 21:9 and Dow is up 25 early. More flight to safety?

[UpInArms]

31. here's the inane blather

09:40 am : Stocks open with little fanfare as the absence of notable economic data, no Monday merger announcements and not much corporate news offer investors little incentive to aggressively get back into buying mode following the market's steepest weekly decline in more than a year. A 3.3% surge in General Motors (GM 26.20 +0.85), after the UAW and Delphi reached an agreement Friday that may help ease union pressures on GM, and Lehman Brothers (LEH 65.80 +0.19) posting a 47% rise in Q2 earnings, are offering some early support. However, key inflation reports (PPI and CPI) and a host of more Fed speak throughout the week will set a more definitive tone to trading as investors continue to search for a technical bottom. DJ30 +14.73 NASDAQ -3.47 SP500 +1.10 NASDAQ Vol 66 mln NYSE Vol 58 mln

[Roland99]

32. I figure a rather tight trading range until the PPI/CPI reports

[stop the bleeding]

34. that would be the prudent approach to this week :) n/t

[UpInArms]

33. August Gold @ $614.90 - July Silver @ $11.25 - July Copper @ $3.32

9:51 AM ET 6/12/06 AUGUST GOLD CLIMBS $2.10 TO $614.90/OZ IN MORNING TRADING

9:51 AM ET 6/12/06 JULY SILVER UP 4 CENTS AT $11.25/OZ

9:51 AM ET 6/12/06 JULY COPPER ADDS 5.25 CENTS, OR 1.6%, TO $3.32/LB

[UpInArms]

49. August Gold @ $612.70 - July Silver @ $11.12 - July Copper @ $3.228

12:07 PM ET 6/12/06 AUGUST GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS AT $612.70/OZ AFTER A $616.40 HIGH

12:07 PM ET 6/12/06 JULY SILVER FALLS 9 CENTS TO $11.12/OZ IN NY

12:07 PM ET 6/12/06 JULY COPPER LOSES 3.95 CENTS TO STAND AT $3.228/LB

[54anickel]

51. GATA Keeps Its Promise to Zulu King (Gold Cartel "stuff")

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/jun122006.html

snip>

Bykov wasn’t the first representative of the Russian government to take note of GATA. On June 3, 2004, a year before Gold Rush 21, the deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, the Bank of Russia, Oleg Mozhaiskov, addressed the London Bullion Market Association at the Baltschug Kempinsky Hotel in Moscow.

He said there was a "dualism" in the determination of the gold price that -- and I quote –

"distinguishes it from other commodities and makes the movements in the price sometimes so enigmatic that market analysts need to invent fantastic intrigues to explain price dynamics. Many have heard of the group of economists who came together in the society known as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and started a number of lawsuits against the U.S. government, accusing it of organizing an anti-gold conspiracy. They believe that with the assistance of a number of major financial institutions (they mention in particular the Bank for International Settlements, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and others), some senior officials have been manipulating the market since 1994. As a result, the price dropped below US$300 an ounce at a time when it should, if it had kept pace with inflation, reached US$740-760."

snip>

*To begin with, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan confessed to the gold price suppression scheme in testimony to Congress on July 24, 1998. Greenspan said:

"Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

That is just what the central banks did.

*The Reserve Bank of Australia confessed to the gold price suppression scheme in its annual report for 2003. "Foreign currency reserve assets and gold," the RBA said, "are held primarily to support intervention in the foreign exchange market.

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/RBAAnnualReports/2003/Pdf/operations_financial_markets.pdf

more...

[Ghost Dog]

85. Gold to "support intervention in the foreign exchange market":

Who isn't a currency-manipulator when required/necessary?

[54anickel]

60. Gold and value

http://www.forbes.com/global/2006/0619/049.html

snip>

You are Chairman Bernanke. What do you do? A conscientious fellow, you try first to do no harm. You have made a lifelong study of deflation and the Great Depression. Of all the mistakes you could make at the helm of the Federal Open Market Committee, there is one you really want to avoid: You do not want to go down in history as the scholar of the Great Depression who inadvertently steered the highly leveraged U.S. economy into Great Depression Part II. You will be slow to tighten monetary policy when home prices are deflating, let the cpi be what it may.

Gold competes with the Bernanke dollar, just as it did with the Greenspan dollar and just as it has with government-issued money since the invention of the printing press. The historical record is undebatable: 1) Currencies ultimately lose their value. 2) Gold is a lousy long-term investment. 3) Yet when markets lose confidence in paper, there is nothing quite like a Krugerrand.

How confident are you? The U.S. annually consumes much more than it produces. It finances the deficit with dollars. More than $1.6 trillion has come to rest on the balance sheets of foreign central banks (as opposed, say, to the bank accounts of profit-seeking corporations). In recent months some of these central banks have signaled their intention to diversify into other currencies. Some of them have indicated they are buying gold.

The post-1971 dollar is uncollateralized. Its value is derived from the world's faith in America as much as from the strength of the U.S. economy or the level of U.S. interest rates. Reading the newspapers, I judge that faith to be wavering.

The gold price has doubled in the past three years. But it has only just kept up with the price of lead and has badly trailed the prices of copper and zinc. Arguably, then, gold's rise to date is not as much a reflection on U.S. monetary management as it is an echo of the commodity boom.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. WCI Communities (home builder) says 2nd quarter may miss forecast

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-12T135116Z_01_WEN9305_RTRIDST_0_CONSTRUCTION-WCI-ORDERS-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, June 12 (Reuters) - Home builder WCI Communities Inc. (WCI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday warned that orders have continued to run well below year-earlier levels and said second-quarter earnings per share may miss its forecast set on May 9.

WCI said it now appears earnings per share may fall below the lower end of its forecast range of 75 cents to 85 cents. Analysts on average have expected it to report earnings per share of 84 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Homebuilding orders for the first two months of its second quarter were down almost 50 percent from a year earlier and the company has taken steps to slow construction and capital spending, it said.

Orders are now expected to be down at least 20 percent in 2006 from 2005, partly due to expectations that it will release to market three to five home towers in 2006, compared with prior expectations that it would release 11 to 13, it said.

[UpInArms]

36. 10:06 EST blood begins seeping through bandage

Dow 10,906.49 +14.57 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,124.79 -10.27 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,251.37 -0.93 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.997 +0.16 (+0.32%)

NYSE Volume 256,095,000
Nasdaq Volume 235,230,000

10:00 am : Major averages continue to trade in split fashion as the bulk of industry leadership remains mixed. Energy and Materials, last week's biggest laggards, are turning in this morning's best recovery efforts. Technology, though, last week's third poorest performing sector (-4.4%) and the year's worst (-7.5%) is still struggling to attract bargain hunters despite a modest rebound in the underperforming semiconductor space following an analyst upgrade on Intel Corp (INTC 17.30 +0.14). DJ30 +24.81 NASDAQ -5.59 SOX +0.2% SP500 +0.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1720/746/192 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/1145/156 mln

[JNelson6563]

38. 10:50, more seepage

Dow 10,900.88 +8.96 (0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,121.15 -13.91 (0.65%)
S&P 500 1,250.39 -1.91 (0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.985% +0.04


Just a quick check-in Marketeers. Raised $2000 for my State House candidate this morning and have a press conference in a little while. I hope we fare better than the markets.

:toast: Leave the light on for me, I'll check in for hot market action after this afternoon's events.

Cheers--
Julie

[Roland99]

40. Cool beans!

[ozymandius]

54. Great news!

Thanks Julie and congratulations! Break a leg at your press conference!

Ozy :hi:

[JNelson6563]

105. Thanks all, it was a great day!

We raised another $1500 today on top of the $2000 this morning and the press gig went great! I jsut finished watching my candidate on teh local news and they did a very nice segment. Great stuff! The tide is turning in a big way.

Bloody day on the Street though, damn bloody. Will finish reading SWT now and see how it played out through the day, thanks to all of you.

Marketeers rock! :toast:

Julie--part time Marketeer/part time overthrow coordinator

[wordpix2]

56. congrats on the fund raising

[TrogL]

39. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2006-05-09 Tuesday, May 9 0.907276 USD
2006-05-10 Wednesday, May 10 0.908678 USD
2006-05-11 Thursday, May 11 0.910001 USD
2006-05-12 Friday, May 12 0.90212 USD
2006-05-15 Monday, May 15 0.897505 USD
2006-05-16 Tuesday, May 16 0.899928 USD
2006-05-17 Wednesday, May 17 0.899604 USD
2006-05-18 Thursday, May 18 0.89214 USD
2006-05-19 Friday, May 19 0.890313 USD
2006-05-22 Monday, May 22 0.893336 USD
2006-05-23 Tuesday, May 23 0.894935 USD
2006-05-24 Wednesday, May 24 0.890631 USD
2006-05-25 Thursday, May 25 0.903179 USD
2006-05-26 Friday, May 26 0.903179 USD
2006-05-29 Monday, May 29 0.903179 USD
2006-05-30 Tuesday, May 30 0.909504 USD
2006-05-31 Wednesday, May 31 0.906865 USD
2006-06-01 Thursday, June 1 0.908843 USD
2006-06-02 Friday, June 2 0.909008 USD
2006-06-05 Monday, June 5 0.908183 USD
2006-06-06 Tuesday, June 6 0.896861 USD
2006-06-07 Wednesday, June 7 0.899523 USD
2006-06-08 Thursday, June 8 0.890234 USD
2006-06-09 Friday, June 9 0.903261 USD

Current values

Last trade 0.9078 Change +0.0033 (+0.36%)
Previous Close 0.9045 Open 0.9067
Low 0.9066 High 0.9090


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above May’s high crossing at .9175 are needed to renew this spring’s rally. If September renews the decline off May’s high, May’s low crossing at .8903 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.


Analysis

The blather above pretty much sums it up.

[UpInArms]

42. 11:29 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,866.54 -25.38 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,113.88 -21.18 (-0.99%)
S&P 500 1,247.06 -5.24 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.985 +0.04 (+0.08%)

NYSE Volume 733,196,000
Nasdaq Volume 626,370,000

11:00 am : Equities bounce off morning lows, as the semiconductor group inches into positive territory, but there still isn't much conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. To wit, Telecom, Utilities and Materials are among the three best performing sectors but regrettably are the three least influential of the 10 economic sectors, combining for only 9.9% of the weighting on the SnP 500, and have done little to offset weakness in Financials and Technology, which combine for a much more significant 36.4% of the SnP's weighting. DJ30 +13.20 NASDAQ -11.66 SOX +0.1% SP500 -1.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1991/780/490 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1951/963/408 mln

10:30 am : Indices spike to fresh session lows since the last update, spearheaded by further deterioration in Tech and diminishing support from the influential Financials sector. Even though Lehman Brothers (LEH 62.86 -2.75) posted a better than expected 47% rise in Q2 profits, recent results that weren't as good as record-setting Q1 figures have kept buyers on the sidelines, prompting investors to wait for results from competitors Goldman Sachs (GS 146.95 -2.94) and Bear Stearns (BSC 132.86 -3.49) later in the week to determine whether or not to get back into brokerage stocks. ..XBD -1.8%.DJ30 -4.08 NASDAQ -13.98 SP500 -3.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1969/722/358 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1787/1046/296 mln

[Roland99]

45. Damn...a couple more weeks like these and NASDAQ will be under 2k!

[KoKo]

47. Tim Wood and Robert Merriman say that we are at a crucial point

and we could get the "Summer Sucker Rally" and then down after that...but if we don't get the "Sucker Rally" then "watch out." This week is crucial.

I'm thinking that there's lots of angst out there with folks scratching their heads right now, waiting for the signal directions....

[Roland99]

62. The receding valuation wave?

http://www.zealllc.com/2006/curse3.htm

[ozymandius]

52. lunchtime check-in

12:24
Dow 10,897.92 +6.00 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,117.91 -17.15 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,249.55 -2.75 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 49.91 +0.10 (+0.20%)
NYSE Volume 971,492,000
Nasdaq Volume 823,977,000

12:00 pm : Choppy trading has the indices trading in split fashion again midday but a bearish bias remains intact and interest rate uncertainty continues to act as an overhang.

To wit, the yield curve between the 2-yr (5.02%) and 10-yr (4.99%) notes has shifted deeper into inversion, reflecting expectations that more rate hikes will be needed to keep inflation under control. Cleveland Fed President Pianalto echoing Fed Chairman Bernanke's tough talk on inflation, hawkish commentary and "unwelcome developments" which caused deep concerns for investors all last week, have only exacerbated the disconcerting risk / reward ratio on this week's influential CPI number -- the stock market's main focus until it is released Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, the Dow has inched back into the green largely due to a 3.5% surge in General Motors (GM 26.23 +0.88) after the UAW and Delphi reached an agreement Friday that may help ease union pressures on GM.

Despite crude oil futures continuing to hit new session lows at $70.85 per barrel (-$0.78), as it appears Tropical Storm Alberto won't inflict as much damage to Florida as initially thought, the absence of industry leadership from the Energy sector is offsetting the positives attributed to falling prices at the pump. Weakness in Financials and Technology -- the two most influential sectors -- are also weighing on the proceedings.

With regard to Financials, even though Lehman Brothers (LEH 62.80 -2.81) posted a better than expected 47% rise in Q2 profits, which plays into our favorable outlook for brokers, recent results that weren't as good as record-setting Q1 figures continue to keep buyers on the sidelines until results later this week from rivals Goldman Sachs (GS 148.36 -1.53) and Bear Stearns (BSC 133.73 -2.62) determine whether or not now is the time to get back into the brokerage space. DJ30 +11.12 NASDAQ -14.24 SOX -0.3% SP500 -1.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2154/717/750 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2175/852/640 mln

[ozymandius]

55. Last Week's Market Drop Continues; Economy on Thin Ice

Last week, NASDAQ dropped 3.8% and the S&P 500 dropped 2.8%. As of this writing (8AM CST) the market futures are pointing to a higher opening. However, we'll have to wait and see if that holds throughout the trading day. Several stories today point to the central reason for the reason behind this drop.

Technically (that is simply looking at the charts irrespective of the underlying economic fundamentals), the markets are in poor shape. The NYSE Composite Index, The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have all been dropping hard since early May. All the markets have either wiped out any gains they made on the year or have wiped out most of the gains they have made. This could simply be a hard correction or the beginning of a bear market. Right now no one knows, although opinions are rampant. The markets have not had any correction like this for sometime, so market participants have forgotten that hard corrections are possible and - more importantly - are sometimes followed by rallies. Unfortunately, only time will tell which path the market will take.

Right now, markets are torn on the future. Either the economy will slow or it won't.

-cut-

This placed the Fed in a very difficult situation. If it raises rates to stop inflation's advance, it will slow the economy. If it keeps rates at current levels, the economy will probably continue a high rate of growth but with the possibility of increasing inflation. This is the worst possible place for the Fed to be in.

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/6/12/92739/1076

[UpInArms]

57. Whackin' Continues: Kimberly-Clark layoffs begin at Wisconsin diaper plant

http://www.kltv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5013727&nav=1TjD

NEENAH, Wis. A union official says the first wave of scheduled layoffs left 105 Kimberly-Clark Corporation employees of the Lakeview Diaper Plant unemployed this week.

The self-proclaimed largest private employer in the area announced in March it was shuttering the diaper plant and eliminating 510 jobs. The Dallas-based consumer products company is also selling or closing the Neenah Nonwovens Plant and cutting its 165 jobs by the end of the year.The cuts are part of a plan to trim ten percent of the company's 62-thousand workers worldwide.

[UpInArms]

59. NPS Pharmaceuticals to cut 53% of workforce (250 jobs)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B05966B9E%2D7336%2D4865%2DB92A%2D143B79535D57%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NPSP : 5.50, -0.08, -1.4% ) said Monday it will reduce staff by 53% as part of a restructuring. The job cuts will reduce the Parsippany, N.J.-based company's total workforce to 230. NPS will also discontinue all activities related to the commercialization of Preos in the United States; close technical operations facility in Mississauga, Ontario; eliminate commercial sales and related field operations; and terminate its agreement with Allergan Inc. (AGN : 103.31, +0.27, +0.3% ) to promote Restasis Ophthalmic Emulsion to rheumatologists. NPS said the restructuring will reduce cash burn for 2006 to a range of $135 million to $145 million. The company expects to end 2006 with year-end cash and cash equivalents balance of between $114 million and $124 million.

[54anickel]

61. IBM chief calls for end to colonial companies

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/aa447f34-f973-11da-8ced-0000779e2340.html

Sam Palmisano, head of IBM, on Monday called on multinationals to evolve into a new type of corporation if they are to avoid an anti-globalisation backlash that leads to the election of governments hostile to the interests of big business.

In a rare public intervention, Big Blue’s chairman and chief executive writes in today’s Financial Times that traditional multinational companies need to abandon their almost colonial approach to operations outside their home country. He cites as examples of this old-style method the way GM, Ford and his own company built factories in Europe and Asia but kept all the research and development in the US.

Instead, he argues they need to move towards full global integration of their operations so as to stop the current unease about the forces of globalisation turning into an all-out assault on big business. The danger for multi-nationals that fail to change their thinking is that countries will elect political leaders who impose draconian labour regulations or try to constrain free trade.

“The alternative to global integration is not appealing: left unaddressed, the issues surrounding globalisation will only grow...People may ultimately choose to elect governments that impose strict regulations on trade or labour, perhaps of a highly protectionist sort,” he writes.

His views could upset many US anti-globalisation campaigners who see offshoring as a threat to US jobs. But to them, Mr Palmisano replies: “These decisions are not simply a matter of offloading non-core activities, nor are they mere labour arbitrage – that is, shifting work to low-wage regions.”

more...

[Ghost Dog]

87. Uh huh. Beginning to think more intelligently, here.

Ie: good business (truly free (well-regulated) market) == all sides win.

Long-term, stable, meaningful, secure growth should be the goal.

Forget colonialism and 'Great Power' rivalries. Just make sense.

[UpInArms]

63. 1:40 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,885.83 -6.09 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,113.61 -21.45 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,246.87 -5.43 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.993 +0.12 (+0.24%)

NYSE Volume 1,238,145,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,045,072,000

1:30 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. Health Care, though, has recently slipped into the red as analyst upgrades on Genentech (DNA 79.85 +1.34) and Genzyme (GENZ 61.46 +1.22) are not enough to offset further deterioration in Managed Healthcare, one of the year's worst performing SnP industry groups (-16.6%). DJ30 +7.76 NASDAQ -15.40 SP500 -3.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2033/911/1.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2099/1012/860 mln

1:00 pm : Range-bound trading persists as the Dow and Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions. Still providing the bulk of blue chip support are General Motors (GM 26.25 +0.90) and AT&T (T 27.03 +0.41). However, more consolidation in Boeing (BA 78.98 -1.52), one of the index's best performers, and a 1.7% decline in Walt Disney (DIS 28.84 -0.49), after valuation concerns prompted Citigroup to downgrade the stock, are keeping the Dow's advance at a minimum. DJ30 +6.24 NASDAQ -15.30 SP500 -2.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2058/866/922 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2068/1019/780 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in the standings as the afternoon session gets underway. Technology remains the worst performing sector, led by a 3.2% decline in Qualcomm (QCOM 42.07 -1.37) amid concerns that a third complaint filed against Nokia (NOK 19.79 -0.27) may distract QCOM's day-to-day operations. The networking group is getting hit even harder (-3.0%) as Comverse Technology (CMVT 20.70 -2.87) plunges to a 52-week low and an analyst downgrade weighs heavily on Tellabs (TLAB 13.83 -1.18). DJ30 +8.56 NASDAQ -15.36 SP500 -2.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2048/832/838 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2015/1042/718 mln

[54anickel]

65. Iraq war bill deletes US military base prohibition

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2006-06-09T205941Z_01_N09199214_RTRUKOC_0_US-SECURITY-CONGRESS-FUNDING.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Congressional Republicans killed a provision in an Iraq war funding bill that would have put the United States on record against the permanent basing of U.S. military facilities in that country, a lawmaker and congressional aides said on Friday.

The $94.5 billion emergency spending bill, which includes $65.8 billion to continue waging wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is expected to be approved by Congress next week and sent to President George W. Bush for signing into law.

As originally passed by the House of Representatives, the Pentagon would have been prohibited from spending any of the funds for entering into a military basing rights agreement with Iraq.

A similar amendment passed by the Senate said the Pentagon could not use the next round of war funding to "establish permanent United States military bases in Iraq, or to exercise United States control over the oil infrastructure or oil resources of Iraq."

The Bush administration has said it does not want to place any artificial timelines on a U.S. presence in Iraq and that it wants to begin withdrawing troops when Iraqi security forces are better able to protect the country. But it has not ruled out permanent bases in Iraq.

more... Bastards! :grr:

[Roland99]

70. Imperial Hubris

[ozymandius]

77. I remember when an additional $78 billion was a huge deal.

Remember when President Stupid whined on TV for extra funds for this misadventure? Fiscal conservatives started dumping their stock in Bushco then. I wonder if this gets on their radar?

[UpInArms]

67. 2:04 EST no reaction to the spending spree

Dow 10,885.21 -6.71 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,114.95 -20.11 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,247.59 -4.71 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.991 +0.10 (+0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,324,573,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,121,769,000

[UpInArms]

72. 2:16 EST market has picked its color: red

Dow 10,861.04 -30.88 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,109.01 -26.05 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,244.61 -7.69 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.991 +0.10 (+0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,393,745,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,180,990,000

2:00 pm : Stocks remain mired in relatively tight trading ranges even though the Dow has recently inched below the flat line. More consolidation of the index's strong performers (e.g. BA, CAT, and MMM) coupled with Intel Corp (INTC 17.01 -0.15) failing to hold onto early gains and hitting new three-year lows is taking some steam out of the blue-chip index's modest efforts at trying to regain upside momentum as the only major average to remain in positive territory for 2006. The SnP 500's 0.38% decline, albeit modest in scope, has been just enough to push it into the red for the year. DJ30 -5.29 NASDAQ -19.69 SP500 -4.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2130/835/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2090/1043/946 mln

[Roland99]

74. NASDAQ shoveling down past those support levels

[ozymandius]

76. The beatings will continue.

2:25
Dow 10,855.26 -36.66 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,108.18 -26.88 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 1,243.84 -8.46 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 49.93 +0.12 (+0.24%)
NYSE Volume 1,429,290,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,209,560,000

[stop the bleeding]

78. this is sweet sweet music to my ears

thanks everyone

[Roland99]

81. You vulture, you!

:evilgrin:

[stop the bleeding]

82. Trade within the overall market's trend

and this is what you get:evilgrin:

[Roland99]

83. Wish I had money to invest at this point. But, this time next year I just

might make it to the "investor class"!!

[UpInArms]

84. 39% of U.S. housing 'extremely overvalued,' study says

2:25 PM ET 6/12/06 CALIF., FLA. HAVE 17 OF TOP 20 MOST OVERVALUED MARKETS

2:25 PM ET 6/12/06 71 U.S. HOUSING MARKETS EXTREMELY OVERVALUED, STUDY SAYS

2:25 PM ET 6/12/06 39% OF U.S. HOUSING IS OVERVALUED: GLOBAL INSIGHT/NAT CITY

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A growing percentage of U.S. housing markets are "extremely overvalued" and are at risk of falling prices, according to a study based on government data released Monday by Global Insight and National City. In the first quarter, 71 housing markets, representing 39% of all U.S. housing, was deemed to be "extremely overvalued" based on median sales prices, median income and historic values. That's up from 64 markets accounting for 36% of housing in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of 2004, just 1% of housing was considered overvalued. California and Florida accounted for 17 of the top 20 most overvalued markets, the economists at the two firms said.

[girl gone mad]

89. Yep.

IMO, the entire west coast is overvalued, and most of the east coast, too. The speculation has even spread to places like Idaho, Wyoming and Alabama. Prices have gotten too far ahead of wages in many areas.

[noel adamson]

94. Adding to the gigantic homeless and poorly housed population

Average wages only pay enough to live in Mexico...

[Ghost Dog]

96. Love your handle, girl gone mad.

(sorry) :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

86. 2:44 EST Puke and Choke Continues

Dow 10,845.17 -46.75 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,105.32 -29.74 (-1.39%)
S&P 500 1,242.60 -9.70 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.985 +0.04 (+0.08%)

NYSE Volume 1,532,333,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,296,211,000

2:30 pm : Market extends its reach to the downside as investors' risk aversion continues to grow. To wit, the growth markets that have experienced the most significant selling pressure recently are again pacing the way lower. The Russell 2000 is off 1.7% on the day but down 12.0% from an all-time high reached on May 5th, while the Nasdaq is off 1.2% but down 11.2% from its April 20 high of 2375.54, also reflective of a "correction" and leaving participants on edge as to when and where stocks will eventually form a technical bottom. DJ30 -34.90 NASDAQ -26.49 SP500 -8.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2199/781/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2258/923/1.06 bln

[ozymandius]

88. Witching hour cometh with a vengeance.

3:21
Dow 10,830.60 -61.32 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 2,102.11 -32.95 (-1.54%)
S&P 500 1,240.76 -11.54 (-0.92%)
10-Yr Bond 49.87 +0.06 (+0.12%)
NYSE Volume 1,733,921,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,489,983,000

3:00 pm : Sellers are showing no signs of slowing heading into the final hour of trading as the major averages continue to hit session lows. The Nasdaq is positioned to record its seventh straight decline, extending its year-to-date decline to more than 4.0%, while the broader market, with the exception of modest gains in the defensive-oriented Utilities sector (+0.4%) and Telecom (+0.5%), remains absent of any notable leadership. Energy is now turning in the worst performance (-1.6%) as oil prices recently closing near session lows at $70.40 (-1.7%) continues to weigh on Explorers, Refiners, Drillers and leave Oil & Gas Equipment -- the year's fourth best performing industry group -- as today's third worst.DJ30 -44.91 NASDAQ -27.53 SOX -1.1% SP500 -9.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2279/723/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2294/900/1.16 bln

Bye folks! Gotta run.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

91. 3:55 EST under 10,800 just before the close

Dow 10,799.06 -92.86 (-0.85%)
Nasdaq 2,094.48 -40.59 (-1.90%)
S&P 500 1,237.56 -14.74 (-1.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.987 +0.06 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 2,073,559,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,804,909,000

[stop the bleeding]

92. Next stop on the downward express 10500

it's a cruel.., cruel summer.... - I know don't give up my day job ;)

[Ghost Dog]

93. Livin' in America (sic):

Straight outta school but still just
a fool
thought the streets were paved
with gold
he moved oof the block and
found he was lost
in a world he'd never known
he had to hustle so he could pay
the rent
played all the aces and wound up
president
you see it's okay
got to find your own way
keep on trying all day
and you know your time
will come
you'll get your chance to run
Chorus:
You're livin' in America
you're livin' in the home of
the dream
you're livin' in America
just make it what you want it
to be
Soap opera child with hope in
her eyes
lookin' for a starrin' role
she came into town and acted
the clown
had a long, long way to go
waitin' on tables and pumpin'
gasoline
she served an agent, now she's
a movie queen
you see it's okay
got to find your own way
keep on tryin' all day
and you know the time will come
for each of everyone
Chorus:
You'll stand alone on a long
hard road
with a crowd that you can't see
just start by steppin' out
then let your mind run free
Chorus:
It's okay
you're livin' in the USA
find your dream
you know that dream can set
you free
It's okay
we're part of a United State
you and me
can be just what we wanna be
he's okay
he left the block and reached
the top
she's all right
the agent put her name in lights
He's okay
he's paid his rent he's president
she's all right
she's on your TV screen tonight

Donna Summer: http://www.mp3lyrics.org/d/donna-summer/livin-in-america/

[stop the bleeding]

97. Ghost Dog - you are awesome :) thanks for the humor/reality

and also many many many thanks to the information that you post here - you are a vital cog;)

[Ghost Dog]

102. Aww, shucks.

:+

Here's something:

"Don't Let It Bring You Down"

Old man lying
by the side of the road
With the lorries rolling by,
Blue moon sinking
from the weight of the load
And the buildings scrape the sky,
Cold wind ripping
down the ally at dawn
And the morning paper flies,
Dead man lying
by the side of the road
With the daylight in his eyes.

Don't let it bring you down
It's only castles burning,
Find someone who's turning
And you will come around.

Blind man running
through the light
of the night
With an answer in his hand,
Come on down
to the river of sight
And you can really understand,
Red lights flashing
through the window
in the rain,
Can you hear the sirens moan?
White cane lying
in a gutter in the lane,
If you're walking home alone.

Don't let it bring you down
It's only castles burning,
Just find someone who's turning
And you will come around.

Don't let it bring you down
It's only castles burning,
Just find someone who's turning
And you will come around.

Neil Young: http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/neilyoung/dontletitbringyoudown.html

(ed. a little spelling).

[Ghost Dog]

103. Also spracht...

Hard Nose The Highway

Hey kids dig the first takes
Ain't that some inspiration
When Sinatra sings against Nelson Riddle strings
Then takes a vacation

Seen some hard times
Drawn some bad lines
No time for shoeshines
Hard nose the highway

I was tore down at the dead's place
Shaved head at the organ
But that wasn't half as bad as it was oh no
Belfast and Boston

Put your money where your mouth is
Then we can get something going
In order to win you must be prepared to lose sometime
And leave one or two cards showing

Van Morrison (I hope you can hear it in your head: http://www.utterlyrics.com/v/van-morrison/hard-nose-the-highway-1973/hard-nose-the-highway.html - takes me straight back to that time, Limerick City/(and Clare) County).

[Roland99]

95. Closing numbers:NASDAQ busts below 2,100. Dow under 10,800. SP under 1,250

DJIA 10,792.58 -99.34 -0.91%
Nasdaq 2,091.32 -43.74 -2.05%
S&P 500 1,236.40 -15.90 -1.27%
Dow Util 412.74 +0.51 +0.12%
NYSE 7,855.44 -109.88 -1.38%
AMEX 1,859.34 -23.80 -1.26%
Russell 2000 683.19 -18.20 -2.59%
Semcond 435.69 -8.47 -1.91%
Gold future 611.30 -1.50 -0.24%
30-Year Bond 5.03% -0.00 -0.02%
10-Year Bond 4.99% +0.01 +0.12%

2-year/10-year bonds in inversion and 10-year/30-year nearing inversion.

[Buttercup McToots]

98. Oh Shyte

Oh Shyte:puke:

[Roland99]

99. The larger-than-*I*-expected drop makes me wonder if PPI/CPI data leaked?

We all know members of Congress have engaged in some 'insider trading' for quite a while and the big brokers, well, (shrug)

[Roland99]

100. Percent change from Bush Jan. 2001 Inauguration to today >>>>>>>>>

5 1/2 years of the Bush Doctrine gives us:

DJIA: +2.03%
NASDAQ: -24.17%
S&P 500: -7.93%

[nolabels]

104. We are in economic recovery now, can't you tell?

:rofl:

No matter how much cheating went on in all them elections there still must have been millions that voted for the monkey. What have they got to say for all of it :shrug:


P.S. I know, don't ask, cause he at least didn't lie about the blow job

[stop the bleeding]

106. I know, it is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders

I am just wondering what their asses are leaking now?

[UpInArms]

101. heaping helping of inflationary blather

Sellers were in total control of trading yet again as fears that the Fed will go too far with its tightening continued to act as an overhang.

Last week, the three major indices averaged declines of 3.3%, fueled by Fed Chairman Bernanke commenting about the "unwelcome development" of rising core rates of inflation. Today, Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, a voting member of the monetary policy committee saying the rate of inflation "exceeds my comfort level" echoed Bernanke's worries and exacerbated an already cautious tone heading into Wednesday's CPI report -- the only "incoming data" on consumer inflation prior to the next FOMC meeting on June 29. Fed funds futures are now pricing in almost a 90% chance of a 17th straight 1/4% rate hike while the yield curve between the 2-yr (5.02%) and 10-yr (4.98%) notes shifting deeper into inversion further reflects expectations that more rate hikes will be needed to keep inflation under control. A third straight 0.3% rise in core CPI could significantly add to longer-term inflationary expectations, leaving no choice but to keep raising rates to address building pricing pressures, regardless of the impact on economic growth.

Per usual, the tech-heavy Nasdaq paced the way lower among the majors, recording its seventh straight decline with a 1.9% sell-off and extending its decline from an April 20 high to -11.9%. Technology was the biggest drag on stocks, led by a drubbing in Communications Equipment. Tellabs (TLAB 13.83 -1.18) plummeted nearly 11% after it was downgraded, Corning (GLW 20.70 -1.57) plunged 7.0% after LG Philips LCD Co. cut its Q2 earnings outlook on softening demand and Motorola (MOT 19.90 -0.69) fell to a seven-month low. Also indicative of a technical correction of 10% and leaving participants on edge as to when and where stocks will eventually form a reasonable bottom was the Russell 2000. Since higher rates greatly impact the borrowing power of small-cap companies, the small-cap index more than halved its 4.1% year-to-date gain to leave it down 12.9% from an all-time high of 784.62 reached on May 5th.

The Dow was also in focus, actually clinging to a modest gain early on after the UAW and Delphi reached an agreement Friday that may help ease union pressures on General Motors (GM 25.78 +0.43). However, the auto maker was one of only four components to post a gain. Boeing (BA 77.88 -2.62) plunged 3.3% amid reports that technical and production problems could delay 787 Dreamliner deliveries in 2008, Walt Disney (DIS 28.90 -0.43) lost ground after valuation concerns prompted Citigroup to downgrade the stock and Intel Corp (INTC 16.86 -0.30) hit another three-year low, which pushed the PHLX Semiconductor Index to October lows.

On a positive note, Lehman Brothers (LEH 61.91 -3.70) posted a better than expected 47% rise in Q2 profits, which played into our favorable outlook for brokers. Be that as it may, recent results that weren't as good as record-setting Q1 figures reminded investors that profit forecasts for the second half of the year will have to come down and prompted participants to wait for results from competitors Goldman Sachs (GS 145.93 -3.96) and Bear Stearns (BSC 131.93 -4.42) later in the week to determine whether or not to get back into brokerage stocks. BTK -1.7% DJ30 -99.34 DJTA -1.8% DJUA +0.1% DOT -1.6% NASDAQ -43.74 NQ100 -2.0% R2K -2.6% SOX -1.9% SP400 -2.2% SP500 -15.90 XOI -1.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2445/624/1.91 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2516/734/1.62 bln

[54anickel]

107. Holy crapola!!! My first chance to check back - what a freaking mess!

Will this week really end up being a bad as some have predicted? Certainly won't be any "glowing reports" coming down the pike.

[54anickel]

108. Risk management key to bank oversight (Ben's doing the circuit this week)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1A9026E9-FD5F-4B32-920E-EB278BA24B1A%7D&siteid=google

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. banks' capital levels should match up to the risks they're taking to avoid endangering the American banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday.

In remarks to a banking graduate school audience, the Fed chairman touted the Basel II banking agreement, which he said will enable regulators to measure banks' capital and risk.

But he added the accord is a "work in progress" and the transition to the agreement will be gradual. No U.S. bank will have its capital determined by the accord before 2012, he said.

snip>

He also said the Federal Reserve would offer guidance "in the not-too-far-distant future" about nontraditional mortgages.

In the question and answer session, Bernanke also said China would benefit by adopting a more-flexible exchange rate regime.

snip>

Bernanke is also scheduled to make two more speeches this week. On Tuesday, he speaks about consumer issues at 11 a.m. Eastern. Thursday, he's scheduled to address the Economic Club of Chicago and focus on energy. That speech begins at 2 p.m. Eastern.

more...

[daleo]

109. Bush took over at 10,600 and the DOW is now at 10,800

That's a gain of 0.4% per year. Of course the CPI is up 10T to 15%, the U.S. dollar is way down, so the minuscule gain is a huge loss in those terms. You wonder why people with money keep supporting him.