Hurricane center predicts calmer season/NHC predicts 4 to 6 major hurrican

[uppityperson]

Interesting competing headlines in the same paper's website. "Hurricane center predicts calmer season" yet "National Hurricane Center predicts 4 to 6 major hurricanes this year". Hmm.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/APWires/headlines/D8HP0B500.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003011607_webhurricanes22.html
Both go to the exact same story:

A hectic, above-normal tropical storm season could produce between four and six major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year, but conditions don't appear ripe for a repeat of 2005's record activity, the National Hurricane Center predicted today.

There will be up to 16 named storms, the center predicted, which would be significantly less than last year's record 27. Still, people in coastal regions should prepare for the possibility of major storms, said Max Mayfield, the National Hurricane Center director.

''One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season,'' Mayfield told reporters.

Last year, officials predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major, with winds of at least 111 mph. But the season turned out to be much busier, breaking records that had stood since 1851. Last season there were 15 hurricanes, seven of which were Category 3 or higher...(more at links)]

[Kagemusha]

1. It's not hard to understand

The NHC is predicting a more vigorous hurricane season than they PREDICTED last year, but calmer than the hurricane season THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

See?

[uppityperson]

4. I see. Lies, damned lies and statistics. And "predictions"

Last yr predicted less, got more.
This yr predict more, will get less.
Yes?

[sarcasmo]

2. But, But, Pat Robertson talked to GOD and he said many storms

will ravage the coasts of Amerika.

[drthais]

3. ....as a Louisiana resident,

I was skeptical of this headline (and the story)
I had heard exactly the opposite, although I couldn't remember where I had read that,
contrary to this story, forecasters were warning of another season much like last year.

I headed over to the Weather Underground (a good source when we're in a panic)
and read Dr. Jeff Master's Tropical Weather Blog

He does say the opposite....although noting various disclaimers
from experts that there is no way to know where storms will form or hit, etc etc.
and no way to know whether or not the lack of El Nino or La Nina will effect
the hurricane season this year.

There's even a bar graph there that shows hurricane activity
over the past 50 years or so....

You know, putting out a story like that is useless.
It reminded me of Gore's statement in the press today
about the Bush administration's attitude re: the veracity of Global Warming.
(and I paraphrase)...You can only prop up your own reality for so long.


Saying the season will be milder won't make it so
It is so very important that all of us who live in hurricane zones
be well informed this year, and keep up with tropical activity.

By the way, take a moment to read Bush's response to the reporter's question
of whether he will go see Gore's film.

idiot

[Kagemusha]

5. Given how restricted NHC scientists' contacts with the media are now

we should be very wary of what's coming out of there. When you put a secrecy wall between experts and the media, it's generally not for putting out 'alarmist' messages, is it? If they don't like my characterization, their political masters shouldn't have dictated chaperoning experts in the meteorological field by executive fiat. (Not to mention Santorum's thankfully never-enacted nightmarish legislation to castrate the NHC in favor of what was it, AccuWeather, a private concern?)

[uppityperson]

6. I wish the best of a yr for you south coasters this yr.

and the east coasters and we west coasters. Be aware and careful everyone and remember, we need to work together because that is all we have.

[cliss]

7. Really?!?

I could have sworn I read somewhere that the hurricane season promises to be as wild as last summer, if not worse.

Yes.....there was a thread here on the LBN about it.

The article said that the "surface temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico is as warm as last year" = the reason why the hurricanes went out of control.

[ixion]

8. so, they predict MORE storms for this year, but calmer?

:wtf: :crazy:

They must be taking spin lessons from the WH.

[Ghost Dog]

9. Compare & contrast (csmonitor):

Active hurricane season forecast, but who listens?
A recent poll finds that fewer than half of coastal residents are prepared.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0523/p02s02-ussc.html

<snip>

Four groups, including the US government, are calling for a hurricane season far more active than average - although no group currently expects as many storms as last year's record-setting 27. At least two groups are attempting to estimate the likelihood that specific segments of the US coastline will feel the brunt of some of these storms - a far more difficult prediction to make.

<snip>

At a briefing in Miami Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spelled out its initial forecast for the season, which will be updated in August, on the eve of the season's peak period. It expects 13 to 16 named tropical storms this season, with eight to 10 of those becoming hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, four to six will be intense hurricanes registering Category 3 or above.

That's on par with the forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, based in Britain, which is calling for 14.6 tropical storms during the Atlantic season. Of those, it expects 7.9 to become hurricanes and 3.6 to reach at least Category 3. In April, the hurricane forecast group at Colorado State University estimated that the season would yield 17 tropical storms, leading to nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

<snip>

In NOAA's forecasts, for example, a feature dubbed the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation plays a key role. This is thought to be manifest as a 20- to 40-year (or by some accounts 50- to 80-year) swing in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Atlantic. Currently, the North Atlantic is said to be in a warm phase. Warm ocean temperatures fuel hurricanes. Thus, its advocates hold, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation currently is driving any increased punch.

Others, however, including researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Georgia Tech, hold that the increased proportion of strong storms could well be driven by global warming's heating effect on the oceans in the tropical Atlantic, where hurricanes form.

/more...

[1monster]

10. Florida has had a very mild, even cool spring this year. That would

mean the waters off Florida are not heating up as quickly as they have other years, which old delay the start of hurricanes in the area.

If the water is cooler, then the storms will not pick up as much energy from them to grow stronger.

Ergo, the season will be calmer than other years... (Of course that late-hot-weather effect would be negated if we have any long spells of extremely hot weather. I remember several years back the summer was so hot that the evening temps of 96 degrees felt very comfortably cool in comparison to the day time temps of up to 104 degrees.)

on edit: sometimes the fingers get ahead of the thought, and sometimes the thoughts get ahead of the fingers...

[pitohui]

13. i would put little faith in that

true there is expected to be v. low risk to florida this year in june

damn few killer hurricanes are a concern in june in florida in any year

[1monster]

19. Yeah, I did state something like that in the parenthetical ...

Could I interest you in some investment (potential) ocean front property in Atlanta? Avoid the (future) rush. Buy now! :evilgrin:

[Endangered Specie]

11. I think they just roll dice to make up these numbers...

Wish someone would keep track of their "predictions"

[pitohui]

14. they do not just roll the dice

and anyone is welcome to keep track of these predictions in their own blog or diary, they are public information

they knew 2005 would be bad, however, you cannot go out on a limb and predict that a season will be 265 percent more active than any previously recorded season

you just can't

it can't all go by models, some of it has to go by empirical and historical

they now have 2005 in the models and can be a little more free w. admitting that a season can have these huge numbers of storms

you will note that the prediction is indeed for a chance of one of the most active in recorded history

i don't think they can do much more

yelling from the rooftops "the end of the world is nigh" won't help anything

[pitohui]

12. they don't really predict a calmer season

actually the prediction is for a bigger season than they predicted, at the same time last year, for 2005

read the fine print

they won't know dick until august and it's irresponsible to just scream out COULD BE WORST STORM SEASON EVAH!

they just don't know

so they try to warn it will be bad w/out being mathematically irresponsible and w.out being hysterics

too many "we don't know yets" in that report -- and they're still predicting a huge, huge, HUGE above normal season

frankly i think it's bombing for the atlantic this time

time will tell

[uppityperson]

17. I know "calmer" was one of their headlines to this story.

I would not want to be a hurricane predicter, especially after last yr (both predicting of last yr and reality). I am amused by the 2 headlines "will be calmer" combines with "predicts 4-6".

[Akoto]

15. To tell the truth, I've been hit every year these past years ...

No kidding. I live on the east coast of Florida and my area has taken a direct hit from at least one hurricane a year for the past few years. Even had my roof collapse in Jeanne, though that's owed to the poor practices of a roofing guy we had.

I really don't fear the storms like I used to. The storms that've hit here have been category 3 or below, and while they're obviously frightening to be in, we held up okay. What scares me is the aftermath, when there are no utilities or services for weeks and no way to contact your loved ones.

As to the storm predictions? My advice is to begin stocking up well beforehand, just in case. If you can't afford to buy a bunch of extra water and canned food at one time, just do it in little bits. Buy a pack of bottled water with your groceries, some canned foods, just add them on to your normal routine. It won't raise your individual bills that much, but it WILL pay off if a storm comes. You'll be prepared while others are fighting each other tooth and nail ahead of the storm for that last can of soup on the shelf.

Other than that, you really just have to wait out the season. We spent our hurricane-trapped nights together in the same room, keeping busy. Games on the laptop, cards, books, talking.

[Rainscents]

16. Starting next year... the worst solar season will start and we ain't

seen nothing yet far as bad weather goes. Fasten your seat belts, ladies and gentleman! This next solar flair season start end of this year or early next year and this is going to be 50% worst then the last solar flairs. My understanding, the last was very bad, but this next one will be much worst! It will start end of this year or early next year and the peak is 2010-2011. :scared: :scared: :scared:

Calm before the storm???

[Malikshah]

18. The mantra in SFl on the local news and among those of us preparing

"It only takes one."