STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 4 May

[ozymandius]

Thursday May 4, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 991 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1960 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1660 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1621
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 3, 2006

Dow... 11,400.28 -16.17 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq... 2,303.97 -5.87 (-0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,307.85 -5.36 (-0.41%)
Gold future... 668.50 +1.10 (+0.16%)
30-Year Bond 5.24% +0.04 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.14% +0.03 (+0.67%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

MARKETS FALL FROM MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AS STRONG ECONOMIC REPORTS FUEL RATE FEARS

The Fed has indicated that its rate hike decisions will be data dependent and recent economic reports point to more rate hikes. The ISM manufacturing data came out on Monday, with the data showing continued business expansion as well as rising prices. The production index in April increased nearly 5% over March to 60.4, the highest reading since last October. The imports index rose to 59, marking the highest reading in over a year as businesses imported materials to meet production needs. Employment was also up more than 5% though other indicators point to a possible slowdown in manufacturing.

The main forward-looking indicators of manufacturing production, new orders, new export orders, and backlog of orders, all dropped with the biggest fall in new export orders of 7.3% followed by a 4.4% decline in order backlogs that would put further pressure on already rising inventories. New export orders fell 1.4% despite the fact that the trade-weighted dollar fell during the month, falling nearly 5% in the past two weeks alone.

-cut-

U.S. vehicle sales for April were slightly higher than March sales, rising 0.1 million units to 16.7 million. A flat sales trend in autos despite rising energy prices and interest rates further support the resiliency of the U.S. economy as consumers do not seem to be deterred. Higher energy prices do not seem to be dampening consumer purchases, but they are having an effect on consumer preferences (as I mentioned they would last week), as the share of autos to total vehicle sales increased to 48% from 45% in March, while trucks share of the total sales fell from 55% to 52%. Looking even deeper into the auto sales figures shows the U.S. consumer’s preference switching from domestic vehicles to import brands, as Ford's sales dipped while GM’s were flat as gains were seen for both Honda and Toyota, who lead in hybrid technology and have a greater emphasis on smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. Sales of imported vehicles rose measurably and account for 23.5% of total sales, up from 20% at the start of the year. Domestic brand sales fell 9% (not adjusted) compared to last April, as all three domestic manufacturers experienced year-over-year declines in sales.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/29
Briefing Forecast 305K
Market Expects 310K
Prior 315K

8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q1
Briefing Forecast 2.5%
Market Expects 2.8%
Prior -0.5%

[UpInArms]

30. 8:30 Reports:

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS HIGHEST SINCE NOVEMBER

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 21,000 TO 2.46 MLN

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. Q1 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY UP 4.2%

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. 2005 NONFINANCIAL PRODUCTIVITY UP 5%, MOST SINCE '59

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. Q4 NONFINANCIAL PRODUCTIVITY UP 4.6%

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. UNIT LABOR COSTS UP 1.4% IN PAST 4 QUARTERS

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. PRODUCTIVITY UP 2.4% IN PAST 4 QUARTERS

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. Q1 UNIT LABOR COSTS UP 2.5% VS. 1.3% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. Q1 PRODUCTIVITY UP 3.2% VS. 2.9% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS 314,250, HIGHEST SINCE DEC.

8:30 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 5,000 TO 322,000

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. initial jobless claims rise 5,000 to 322,000 (last wk rev'd up 2K)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B56DCD44B%2D97DC%2D4439%2DABED%2DFE61FBF5031B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time applications for state unemployment benefits drifted higher by 5,000 last week to 322,000, the highest level since Nov. 19, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of seasonally adjusted new claims rose by 5,250 to 314,250, also the highest of the year. The number of people collecting unemployment checks rose by 21,000 to 2.46 million in the week ending April 22, the highest level in five weeks. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 7,500 to 2.44 million from a five-year low of 2.43 million. The insured unemployment rate -- the percentage of those eligible for benefits who are receiving them - remained at 1.9%.

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. productivity up 3.2% in first quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3483D532%2D59F5%2D4441%2DA00F%2DBB298AA6E567%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The productivity of the American workplace increased at a 3.2% annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Labor Department said Thursday. Unit labor costs - a key inflation gauge - increased 2.5% in the nonfarm business sector in the quarter. Both numbers were higher than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted productivity would rise 2.9%, while unit labor costs were expected to rise 1.3%. In the past four quarters, productivity has increased 2.4%, while unit labor costs are up 1.4%. In the manufacturing sector, productivity increased at a 4.2% annual rate in the first quarter, while unit labor costs fell 2.6%.

[UpInArms]

77. CORRECTION: March Income up 0.5% NOT 0.8% as earlier reported

11:16 AM ET 5/4/06 MARCH INCOME UP 0.5%, NOT 0.8%, COMMERCE DEPT. SAYS

[UpInArms]

79. BULLETIN>> GOVERNMENT OVERSTATED RECENT U.S. INCOME GROWTH

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B305DDE3D%2D625F%2D4006%2D991E%2D059CD2E95864%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Commerce Department said Thursday it had overstated income growth in March and in the first quarter of the year by incorrectly attributing Medicare payments to March instead of to April. The corrected data show incomes rose 0.5% in March, not the 0.8% previously reported on Monday. For the first quarter, incomes rose at a 6.2% annualized rate, not the 6.7% previously reported last Friday.

What else are they overstating or understating? :eyes:

[JNelson6563]

89. Mm Hmm. Just an innocent mistake, an over-sight

They always lie in the numbers game. A few great speeched back Al Gore hit on that point. He said we knew what the R's were inferring when they talked about "morals"--a nod to the Clinton scandals--and then he said "but at least we used honest numbers!!" He went on about that point a bit but he said that part very passionately and the applause was loud. It was great.

Julie

[Robbien]

95. Does that make sense? A whole month of medicare

payments being added in only make a .3% difference in wages?

And other adjustments must have been made to cause the annualized rate drop .5%

But perhaps its my mistake in trying to make sense of GOP numbers.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil Prices Sink Toward $72 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices extended losses Thursday after a big drop the previous day that was caused by U.S. government data showing higher gasoline supplies.

Light sweet crude for June delivery sank 24 cents to $72.04 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, prices plunged $2.33 to settle at $72.28 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Department released a weekly petroleum report. The data showed a supply rise as refineries boost output and demand flattens.

But oil prices remain about 46 percent higher than a year ago, and analysts do not expect them to fall sharply anytime soon. A peak of $75.35 was reached April 21.

-cut-

Strong global demand, a limited supply cushion and persistent production outages in Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico have also exerted upward pressure. And a surge of investors betting on oil and other commodities to rise has also lifted prices.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Shell profit beats forecasts with 12 pct jump

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L) beat analysts' forecasts and reported a 12 percent jump in first quarter profit on Thursday, as oil prices more than compensated for falling production.

Shell said in a statement that current cost of supply net income, which strips out changes in the value of inventories, was $6.088 billion.

Excluding a non-operating gain of $113 million, the result was $5.975 billion, ahead of an average forecast of $5.56 billion in a Reuters poll of seven analysts.

"These are good, solid underlying results and better than we have expected," Peter Hutton at van Lanschot Bankiers said. "But it is still not delivering the same amount to investors, compared with BP."

more

[ozymandius]

5. Car Buyers Scaled Down Last Month

Consumers reacted sharply to rising gasoline prices last month and turned away from large sport-utility vehicles and other trucks in favor of small cars and gas-electric hybrid vehicles.

Ford Motor Co. said sales of its two hybrid models -- the Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner -- more than doubled in April from the previous month, while sales of larger SUVs and pickup trucks tumbled. Toyota Motor Co. said it couldn't produce its Prius hybrid fast enough to keep up with demand.

Consumers also showed a growing appetite for subcompact cars, including tiny new entries such as the Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris. James E. Press, Toyota's U.S. president, said soaring oil prices were reminding automakers "how close to the cliff we're living."

more

[UpInArms]

28. Shell, Total profits climb despite production declines

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B9AE66455%2DB5CC%2D49D9%2D8487%2DB38D78B01FFB%7D&symbol=

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Two of Europe's largest oil producers, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, on Thursday reported a better-than-forecast first-quarter profit, with both companies saying that rising oil and gas prices made up for declines in production.

Shell (RDS.A 68.66, -1.42, -2.0% ) (RDS.B 72.07, -1.57, -2.1% ) , The Hague-based oil giant with a primary listing in London, said profit rose 3% to $6.89 billion, with revenue up 5% to $75.97 billion.

On the more widely followed current cost of supplies measure, a figure that strips out the impact of energy price changes on inventories, its profit rose 12% to $6.09 billion, as strong oil and gas price realizations offset a 3% production decline.
Even when excluding a $113 million gain on one-time items, its results passed analyst forecasts of $5.57 billion.

<snip>

At Total (TOT 138.50, -2.23, -1.6% ) (FR:012027: news, chart, profile) , profit rose 15% to 3.68 billion euros (4.06 billion), with sales up 25% to 39.61 billion euros.

Adjusted both to strip out the impact of energy price changes on inventories as well as its share of amortization of intangibles that arose from the drug company Sanofi-Aventis deal, net income climbed 16% to 3.38 billion euros, as oil prices offset a 5% decline in production.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

36. Earnings boost European stocks ahead of ECB outcome

http://today.reuters.co.uk/Investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-05-04T104108Z_01_L04496911_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML
Thu May 4, 2006 11:41 AM BST

By Sophie Hares

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - European shares nudged higher on Thursday ahead of central bank interest rate decisions as investors looked to a healthy batch of earnings from heavyweight corporates such as Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research).

Norwegian telecoms group Telenor (TEL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research), ICI (ICI.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and BASF (BASF.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped after forecast-beating results, while takeover talk spurred a rally in Intercontinetal Hotels (IHG.L: Quote, Profile, Research).

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of leading stocks was 0.4 percent higher at 1,385 points by 1025 GMT, after dipping 0.9 percent on Wednesday.

"Earnings are not really a problem for the time being, the reports are not too bad, but there is some question over outlooks," said Guillaume Duchesne, equity strategist at Fortis Private Banking. "We are waiting for the comments from the ECB, we expect higher rates for the euro zone."

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to leave interest rates unchanged at meetings later in the day.

The ECB's decision is due at 1145 GMT, followed by a news conference at 1230 GMT. The BoE's decision is due at 1100 GMT.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

37. BoE holds UK rates at 4.5 pct, analysts ponder hike

http://today.reuters.co.uk/Investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-05-04T104108Z_01_L04496911_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML
Thu May 4, 2006 1:09 PM BST

By Ross Finley

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of England kept interest rates steady for the ninth month running on Thursday and a growing number of economists are now wondering whether the next move will be up.

All but one of the 45 analysts polled by Reuters last week had predicted no change from 4.5 percent at this month's Monetary Policy Committee meeting and many said the central bank would cut rates later this year.

But the data keeps getting stronger and several economists who have long been predicting a rate cut this year have abandoned that forecast in favour of no move. Others are more worried about the risk of a rise.

"We aren't there yet, so the MPC will bark rather than bite at this juncture," said Andrew McLaughlin, group chief economist at RBS. "Our forecast for rates to remain on hold is unchanged, but the odds on a hike are shortening, especially now that Stephen Nickell, the only member to vote for a cut this year, has stepped down from the MPC."

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

38. FOREX-Dollar rallies on G7 comments, ECB holds rates

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=allBreakingNews&storyID=2006-05-04T122025Z_01_L04470681_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-5.XML
Thu May 4, 2006 1:20 PM BST

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen and other major currencies on Thursday, while the euro was little moved after the European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 2.5 percent.

The dollar was boosted after Japan's finance minister said the G7 did not point to a dollar decline after the meeting of wealthy nations last month.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, in a post decision news conference at 1230 GMT, is seen signalling that further interest rates rises are likely.

Some analysts pointed out however that Trichet could also express unease over the euro's significant rise against the dollar since the G7 meeting last month.

"We have Trichet speaking today, with him maybe expressing a degree of dissatisfaction with the fact that the euro has appreciated by five percent since the low point in April," BOTM-UFJ currency economist Derek Halpenny said.

"The market would be right to worry about that because after the G7, Trichet said its statement was not a green light to buy the euro," he added.

By 1203 GMT, the euro was down a third of a percent against the dollar <EUR=> at $1.2600, moving off this week's one-year high of $1.2690.

Sterling was little changed after a widely-expected decision by the Bank of England to hold its key interest rate at 4.50 percent, trading slightly higher against the dollar at $1.8422.

/more...

"G7 did not point to a dollar decline" - Really? :eyes:

[54anickel]

44. Another case of "you misunderstood"....from last Friday

&cap=File%20photo%20of%20Deidre%20Deyer%20relaying%20a%20trade%20in%20the%20Euro%20Dollar%20pit%20at%20the%20Chicago%20Mercantile%20Exchange%20after%20the%20U.S.%20Federal%20Reserve%20made%20an%20announcement%20on%20interest%20rates%20March%2028,%202006.%20%20REUTERS/John%20Gress


snip>


Interest rate differentials between the U.S. on the one hand and Europe and Japan on the other have helped to support the U.S. dollar in the past year, but with that prop seen being removed the market was now focusing on factors bearish for the greenback, analysts said.

After last week's meeting of finance ministers from Group of Seven countries some officials have said that currency markets have misinterpreted the G7 statement as a call for a decline in the dollar, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow on Friday said the statement, which called for currency appreciation in China and emerging markets in Asia, spoke for itself.

"At another time, Snow's (non) comments might have been more innocuous," said Sophia Drossos, senior currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

"But in the current environment, where the market perceives the Fed to be nearing an end, they seemed to sanction the market's view that the G7 wants a weaker dollar."

The dollar's slide this week left it on track for its worst monthly performance against major currencies since September 2003, when the G7 finance ministers met in Dubai and called for increased "flexibility" in global currency markets


Whatzamatta with these CBers? - Buck dropping a little too fast these days? - Gold starting to rise in all currencies or sumptin?

[Ghost Dog]

51. Yup. Reuters: Fri Apr 21, 2006 08:58 PM ET

G7 finance chiefs back bigger IMF forex role
Fri Apr 21, 2006 08:58 PM ET
Emphasis, comments added

By Gernot Heller and Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Finance chiefs from the world's most powerful nations on Friday singled out China as a country that needs to pursue more exchange rate flexibility to help restore balance in the global economy. <-- Sure. Needs to apply brakes.

In a final communiqué and in a separate one-page annex, the finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven turned up the heat on Beijing to let its yuan currency rise.

"In emerging Asia, particularly China, greater flexibility is critical to allow necessary appreciations, as is strengthening domestic demand, lessening reliance on export-led growth strategies, and actions to strengthen financial sectors," the officials said in the annex on how to solve dangerous global trade distortions.

The G7 -- the United States, Canada, Britain, Italy, France, Germany and Japan -- also welcomed a bigger role for the International Monetary Fund as a global currency watchdog at a time of heightened anxiety about a potential dollar fall. (<-- ed: What happened to the Russian (G8) presidency this year, btw?)

In their communiqué, officials cited several risks to a generally sunny global outlook. These included record high oil prices, a threat of protectionist policies and the danger that global trade imbalances could lead to economic upheaval. <-- Earning their keep, here?

"We underscored that global economic adjustment is a shared responsibility," the communiqué stated -- a phrase the United States favors to back its claim that G7 partners in Europe and Japan must spur growth and encourage more domestic consumption to help U.S. exports.

A European source said global finance chiefs at an earlier meeting on Friday wrestled with ways to prevent a tumble in the dollar should they fail to find a way to restore balance to flows of capital and trade. <-- Why wrestle? Go with the flow!

Participants at the IMF-convened meeting on imbalances were told they should at least prepare for a situation that could include a dollar fall.

"It's probable we will have a slowdown in the U.S. economy, a cooling of the real estate market, a decline in consumer spending -- and so the dollar could depreciate," a source told Reuters, summarizing views expressed at the morning meeting.

"Countries should be ready for that," the source added.

/more...

So. ¿Shoot the (not-so) stenographers?

[54anickel]

110. Ben, Maria, and the makings of a precious metals panic

http://www.fallstreet.com/may306.php

He Said

If he says he didn’t think that his comments were on the record he looks like a schmuck. If he acknowledges that he is ‘worried’ that traders ‘misunderstood’ his latest testimony he looks like an even bigger schmuck. In short, Fed Chairman Bernanke, a mere three months into the job, is going to have to chalk up his first ‘rookie mistake’ as a learning experience. Fortunately his remarks didn’t roil the financial markets for more than a few moments, although his credibility has been taken down a peg.

She Said

Covering Mr. Bernanke’s comments was CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo (of “Use the News: How to Separate the Noise from the Investment Nuggets…” fame ~ available while supplies last for a penny). Not one to shy away from the spotlight, Bartiromo appeared on Kudlow & Company last night and claimed “in his heart, I did him a favor.” Apparently Mr. Bernanke and his staff work tirelessly to craft well thought out speeches so that after the speech is delivered, and while slopping down a few drinks with friends, Bernanke can convey his up to the second monetary policy opinions to the ‘money honey’.

He Used To Say?

Unlike the Dixie Chicks, Mr. Roach is ready to play nice - this after seven years of playing the heavy. Roach was calling the US housing market a bubble in 2001, more than five years ago he warned “Over the next several years, the personal saving rate must go up”, and in 2002 he climbed aboard the unsustainable current-account deficit train (or when the US CAD was around 4% versus GDP). Given that each of these threats/imbalances has grown increasingly ominous, I am sure that if you met him at a party Roach would tell you that his latest comments were misunderstood.

[54anickel]

111. Cool Hand Steve (Bwahaha - more questioning Roach)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff050206.html

Yesterday, in a turnaround reminiscent of the 1960's film "Cool Hand Luke," the bosses at Morgan Stanley finally succeeded in getting poor old Stephen Roach's mind right. For years Mr. Roach had caused headaches up and down Wall Street for his stubborn "failure to communicate" the upbeat messages so vital to the investment trade. Instead he was one of the most influential voices calling attention to the dangers of America's lack of domestic savings and production, growing current account imbalances, and reliance on asset-based consumption. The more upbeat Stephen Roach now anticipates the rosy "soft-landing." scenario.

What happened to cause him to finally make lemonade from all those economic lemons? Why the G-7 and the IMF finally acknowledged that global imbalances represented a potential problem. So Stephen Roach does a complete 180 simply because a loose affiliation of government policy makers reluctantly admitted the obvious? Since when does acknowledging a problem imply its solution?

Lyndon Johnson declared war on poverty in the 1960's and the last time I checked poverty was still winning. I suppose the nail biting at Apollo 13 mission control should have ended once Jim Lovell declared "Houston we have a problem." According to Roach, there is no need for Alcoholics Anonymous, as the meetings should all adjourn immediately following the standard introductions, "Hello my name is Uncle Sam and I'm an alcoholic (or more appropriately spendaholic.)" Sure, admitting that one has a problem is the first step in a long journey, but admission in and of itself does not immediately imply its successful completion; especially if one celebrates his first AA meeting by toasting it.

The most interesting aspect of his fox-hole conversion is his timing. Never before has his doomsday scenario been so close to unfolding or his bearishness so close to vindication. With the dollar resuming its fall, foreign central banks raising rates and seeking to diversify their reserves, housing supply overwhelming demand, and gold and other commodity prices soaring out of control, one would think Mr. Roach would finally be in the enviable position of saying "I told you so." Instead he has changed his tune, and now sings in near perfect harmony with the Wall Street's "All Bulls Choir."

more...

[Ghost Dog]

112. Who wants to unlike Dixie Chicks?

(Or Neil Young, Leonard Cohen, many others, for that matter).

Little more important than freedom of information/expression. Unless it's right-down-to-it Security, I guess.

[UpInArms]

35. Tesoro (Refiner) profit rises 54%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5D680B5C%2D65A4%2D4BF8%2D88C4%2DE3547B073007%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Refiner Tesoro Corp (TSO 72.15, -0.21, -0.3% ) said Thursday its first quarter net income climbed 54% to $43 million, or 61 cents a share from $28 million, or 40 cents a share a year ago. Revenue rose to $3.88 billion from $3.17 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had, on average expected the company to earn 69 cents a share in the quarter.

[ozymandius]

125. Isn't 54% about how much gas prices have risen in the past year?

Seems fishy to me. Like fishing with dynamite.

[UpInArms]

60. June Crude @ $71.30 bbl - June NatGas @ $6.55 mln btus

10:03 AM ET 5/4/06 JUNE CRUDE FALLS 98C, OR 1.4%, TO $71.30/BRL IN NY

10:03 AM ET 5/4/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS DOWN 5.6C, OR 0.9%, TO $6.55/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

65. DOE: NatGas Supply up 53 bln cf - June NatGas @ $6.70 mln btus

10:32 AM ET 5/4/06 U.S. NATURAL GAS SUPPLY UP 53 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

10:32 AM ET 5/4/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS UP 9.4C, OR 1.4%, AT $6.70/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

88. 'Slow-motion' oil supply shock part of price surge: Yergin

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=b6344392-e8c1-40aa-a062-cb9c6bb7df14&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- While surging demand and refining bottlenecks have also played a role in surging oil and gas prices, production disruptions in Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and the U.S. Gulf have contributed to a "a slow-motion supply shock -- an aggregate disruption that, at present, we would put at 2.2 million barrels per day," said Cambridge Energy Research Associates Chairman Daniel Yergin, in testimony prepared for delivery to the House Energy and Commerce Committee. The disruptions, combined with strong demand, have created a very tight oil market that is vulnerable to further problems, fostering a risk premium of $10 to $15 a barrel, Yergin said.

The destruction policies and illegal wars of this mal-administration can claim a risk premium of $10 to $15 a barrel.

:mad:

[UpInArms]

91. June Crude @ $69.95 bbl

11:54 AM ET 5/4/06 JUNE CRUDE FALLS UNDER $70/BRL FOR 1ST TIME SINCE APRIL 13

11:54 AM ET 5/4/06 JUNE CRUDE LAST DOWN $2.33 AT $69.95/BRL

[UpInArms]

120. House panel questions Exxon Mobil Lee's $400+ Million parachute payment

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8HD3S401.htm?campaign_id=rss_full_topix_bwdaily&chan=db

MAY. 4 1:46 P.M. ET A House committee has asked Exxon Mobil Corp., for detailed information about a lucrative retirement package given to its former chairman, Lee Raymond, calling it an "exorbitant payout" when motorists are paying $3 a gallon for gasoline.

Raymond, who recently retired, was given a total package of nearly $400 million including salary, bonus, stock options and a one-year $1 million consulting arrangement.

The request was made as the House Energy and Commerce Committee sent letters to the country's five biggest oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, seeking detailed information about the companies' spending and investment priorities in light of huge profits over the past year as crude prices jumped to a recent high of more than $75 a barrel.

<snip>

The relatively small amount invested in increasing refinery capacity "is cause for concern," said Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, the committee chairman, who opened a hearing into soaring oil and gasoline prices on Thursday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

122. June Crude closes @ $69.94 bbl

2:59 PM ET 5/4/06 JUNE CRUDE CLOSES AT A ONE-MONTH LOW

2:59 PM ET 5/4/06 JUNE CRUDE ENDS AT $69.94/BRL, DOWN $2.34, OR 3.2%

[NC_Nurse]

6. Great cartoon!

Good morning!

[RawMaterials]

17. That cartoon just makes me sick

:puke:

[UpInArms]

18. It's kind of like Stephen Colbert - the only way the truth comes out

these days is through satire.

:(

[Ghost Dog]

25. Re. my post yesterday, that should have read: Hindenburg,

not Hindenberg.

Sorry.

http://www.vidicom-tv.com/tohiburg.htm

Very sorry :-(

[AnneD]

41. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and lurkers. :hi: NC Nurse, always nice to have a fellow professional on the board.

There is so much activity here. We are wrapping up our last day of the Cat 5 hurricane drill-Eunice hit us hard. Mercifully, our city and state response is better than the gov's.

In keeping with that thought-I'll share a bumper sticker that I saw yesterday. It looked like 2 bumperstickers. The first one was the typical white and black sticker I (heart) my German Shepard. But just below that was a yellow sticker that was yellow with fanciful script that said Pope Benedict XVI. I was laughing like and idiot. With a messianic nutjob like Bush in the WH, we sure could use some divine intervention-like a lightening strike or something.

Hey, I see unemployment is up. That should make those numb nuts on WS very happy, that is if the price of oil doesn't scare the shit out of them. Wonder if it will be a bumpy ride.

Happy hunting, and watch out for the bears.....

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 85.99 Change 0.00 (0.00%)

US Dollar Attempts to Stand Up for Itself

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/US_Dollar_Attempts_to_Stand_1146739118064.html

EUR/USD – For the third day in a row, EUR/USD pierced the 50% fibo of 1.3666-1.1640 at 1.2650 and subsequently closed below that fib level. The fact that shorter term moving averages crossed above longer ones, the breaking of long term trendlines, and the new 2006 highs all point to higher prices in the longer term, but the inability of EUR/USD to trade past the 1.2650 fib level points to further correction/consolidation in the short term. Hourly oscillators are bearish as well with MACD crossing below 0 and RSI declining below 50. The highs from yesterday and Monday remain resistance at 1.2669/88. Support rests at the 23.6% fibo of 1.2068-1.2688 at 1.2542 with a break below targeting the 38.2% fibo at 1.2450. The uptrend remains intact as long as the 4/6 high of 1.2331 holds.

<snip>

USD/JPY – USD/JPY continues to correct and currently sits at the 23.6% fibo of 118.88-112.34 at 113.87. Daily oscillators are turning up including RSI, which is now above 30. There is not much congestion past the 4/24 low at 114.23, and thus a continued corrective move possibly tests the 38.2% fibo of 118.87-112.34 at 114.82. Yesterday’s 112.88 low is initial support with a break below giving scope to Monday’s low at 112.33. The downtrend remains intact given that the 3/1 low at 115.44 holds as resistance.

<snip>

USD/CAD – “The 161.8% fibo of the 1.1297-1.1771 March bull wave comes in at 1.1005 and is the next estimate for support “is what we concluded yesterday. The pair came awfully close, making its low yesterday at 1.1011 before buyers finally took over after 8 consecutive days of losses. Yesterday’s daily candle is also a hammer; a bullish reversal pattern. The consolidation of the extreme losses could test the 23.6% fibo of 1.1771-1.1011 at 1.1188 with a break exposing the confluence of the 38.2% fibo / 3/2 low at 1.1297/1.1300 – a level which if held keeps the recent downtrend from 1.1771 intact. A continuation of the downtrend first encounters the mentioned 1.1011 low and eventually the 20% fibo of 1.1297-1.1771 at 1.0825.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. no help for the buck in the reports

Last trade 85.85 Change -0.14 (-0.16%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.97

Previous Close 85.99 High 86.22

Low 85.80 2006-05-04 08:40:47, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

61. dollar hits a sinkhole

Last trade 85.66 Change -0.33 (-0.38%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.97

Previous Close 85.99 High 86.22

Low 85.61 2006-05-04 10:10:14, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

71. hole getting deeper

Last trade 85.52 Change -0.47 (-0.55%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.97

Previous Close 85.99 High 86.22

Low 85.51 2006-05-04 10:21:40, 30 min delay

[Ghost Dog]

76. FOREX-Euro hits 1-year high, extends Trichet-led rally

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=allBreakingNews&storyID=2006-05-04T150621Z_01_NYJ000072_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-8-URGENT.XML
Thu May 4, 2006 4:06 PM BST

NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The euro rallied to its highest against the dollar in a year on Thursday, extending a rebound sparked by remarks from the European Central Bank chief that strongly suggested euro zone interest rates will rise next month.

The euro traded as high as $1.2694 <EUR=>, according to EBS, up 0.4 percent on the day and above the previous 1-year high of $1.2690 struck on Monday.

The euro had been hovering around $1.2600 before ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet opened his news conference after the bank left benchmark rates on hold at 2.5 percent.

Trichet told reporters that policy remains accommodative and that the ECB must exercise strong vigilance in the face of rising price pressures.

[UpInArms]

78. Commentary: Greenback's long downward spiral

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/print.php?sid=25952

excerpt:

A UK Telegraph article on Tuesday "Dollar Drops as great Sell-Off Looms" explains the current dilemma. The dollar is falling against the euro and the Asian currencies while gold and energy prices continue to skyrocket. "Greenback liquidation comes amid growing concerns that global central banks and Middle East oil funds are quietly paring back their holdings of US bonds." David Bloom, a currency expert at HSBC, said the dollar was vulnerable to a steep sell-off as investors begin to refocus on America's yawning current account deficit, now 7% of GDP". (UK Telegraph)

Just to add some perspective to this topic; Argentina's economy collapsed when its trade deficit reached 4% of GDP. The US deficit is at an unprecedented level.

<snip>

The real force behind Bush's actions is the Federal Reserve. No one has any illusion that our paper-mache president, who even boasts about not reading the newspapers, is making complex policy decisions about geopolitics and finance. As a privately owned institution, the Fed has its own agenda which runs contrary to the interests of the American people. Many people fail to realize that it was Greenspan who cooked up the massive increases in Social Security in 1983 to help Reagan reduce the soaring interest rates that were caused by his tax cuts for the wealthy. Ever since then, Social Security payments have gone directly into the general fund; paying for roads, social programs and war. This was the Fed's clever way of creating a flat tax directed exclusively at the poor and middle class.

The Federal Reserve has engineered many similar coups, the most impressive being the huge stock market bubble of the late 1990s. Greenspan kept the cheap money flowing into the Wall Street Casino (and refused to even increase marginal rates on stock purchases) while PE's skyrocketed and the bubble expanded to Hindenburg-proportions.

Following the explosion, which left tens of thousands of Americans stripped of their retirement and savings, Greenspan breezily noted that it is not the task of the Fed to stop bubbles.

...more...

[54anickel]

118. As the world turns, it's the US's turn to face a currency crisis

http://www.capuchinomics.com/news/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=231&Itemid=

snip>

That brings us to the present day. Now, American companies routinely manufacture overseas to tap into these low labor costs and have shipped their production of goods to these areas. The affected countries after suffering through the devastation of the crises have learned and put into practice two important lessons. First, don't take the IMF's handouts and its accompanying advice. Second, one can never have enough reserves. As a result world central banks have accumulated reserves far beyond than what is needed to maintain liquidity and solvency for their economies and currencies.

The US emerged out of these various crises as the financial hegemon. The dollar became the de facto currency of the world. Around the world, dollars were preferred over local currencies. These developments coincided with the internet bubble and a budget surplus, a combination that caused capital flows to move even more rapidly to the US. Even after the internet bubble burst this fund flow continued unabated. It's after all human nature to take all manner of precautions to address the crisis that's has just passed. As a result, central banks around the world are still accumulating treasury bonds even though the US's fiscal condition now matches that of Argentina or Mexico or the Asian tigers at the point of their financial crises.

The US by dint of the fact that it issues the world's reserve currency believes that its position cannot be challenged. However, by any reckoning, the dollar today is an emperor with no clothes. The currency features low yields, deteriorating fiscal conditions and a deteriorating investment income position (as we reported to you last week). And now political forces are combining, to overthrow the arrangements that made possible the extraordinary prosperity and wealth of the last two decades catalyzed by the fall of communism and the victory of capitalism.

What lies in store next for the global financial system? In 1989, the dollar began its road back to preeminence. This preeminence had been lost after Nixon took it off the gold standard in 1971. Thirty years later (since the Dollar peaked in 2001), the dollar came full circle, traveling from global currency villain in 1971 to hero and savior status through the various crises listed in the first paragraph. By our reckoning, the dollar is headed for another stint as global villain. Ahead then is a period of resolution of imbalances caused by the events described above. Will these imbalance be resolved by a series of small, incremental and painless adjustments? Or are we about to see a wholesale rearrangement of the dollar oriented global financial system? Sharp moves in financial markets are suggesting that some investors have made their decision and have begun to act.

more...

[54anickel]

119. China stresses FX caution, imbalance concerns grow

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-05-04T091129Z_01_SP119240_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-ASIA-ADB.xml&rpc=23

HYDERABAD, India (Reuters) - Financial leaders from Asia's biggest economies voiced concern on Thursday about global trade imbalances but China said it could not move too fast on the yuan and that developed nations must do more to fix the problem.

Top policy makers gathered for the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Hyderabad, southern India, where China's vice finance minister, Li Yong, said he was quite concerned about global imbalances.

"I believe we should share the responsibility. We are all on the same boat and no one can escape if this boat sinks," he said.

"Major developed countries should take more responsibility. We need consultations rather than trade protectionism and we should not politicize trade imbalances."

snip>

GLOBAL FX POLICEMAN?

Japan added that focusing too much on currencies as a means of addressing imbalances risked fuelling market speculation, which ultimately could damage the world economy.

Many economists say the United States simply consumes too much and that its growing current account and fiscal deficits are unsustainable.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

126. "We are all on the same boat and no one can escape if this boat sinks"

Nicely (and very strongly, by Chinese standards) put.

Ojo.

[UpInArms]

121. falling deeper into the sludge - missing the taste of pond scum

Last trade 85.34 Change -0.65 (-0.76%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 85.97

Previous Close 85.99 High 86.22

Low 85.31 2006-05-04 14:44:26, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

8. FCC deadline upheld for ISP wiretapping

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/14497836.htm

Comcast, EarthLink and other companies that sell high-speed Internet service and online phone service have a year to upgrade their systems to allow wiretapping by law enforcement, the Federal Communications Commission said Wednesday.

The FCC upheld a May 14, 2007, deadline set last year for the companies to comply with the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act.

``I remain committed to ensuring that these providers take all necessary actions to incorporate surveillance capabilities into their networks in a timely fashion,'' FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said during the meeting.

[WhiteTara]

101. my mind is boggling!

the last veneer of privacy is stripped. Come One Fitz!!! The country needs new administrators!

IMPEACH BUSH AND SEND THEM ALL TO THE HAGUE

[Ghost Dog]

104. They want trouble?

Screw them (and the taxpayer) by using Zimmerman's Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) - careful how, which (no backdoor) version: http://www.pgpi.com

Though, this is a bit like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

Peace.

[UpInArms]

9. Years of layoffs put once-ripe Peach State in the pits

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-05-03-georgia-pits_x.htm

ATLANTA — Georgia was a bright, shining jobs magnet during much of the 1990s, when firms routinely relocated or opened headquarters here.

They were good jobs, the high-paying kind that every state covets. In the mid-'90s, this was one of the top three states for high-tech job growth.

<snip>

Those were the good old days. The economic news of late has been almost all bad.

Two major automobile manufacturing plants will close by 2008 at a cost of 5,000 jobs. Delta Air Lines filed for bankruptcy last fall and is expected to eliminate 10,000 jobs by mid-2007.

Another local employer, BellSouth, laid off 1,500 managers in December and is being acquired by San Antonio-based AT&T. About 10,000 jobs, many of them here, are expected to be cut after the merger. Two Atlanta military bases, Fort McPherson and Fort Gillem, are closing, eliminating more than 5,000 civilian jobs.

<snip>

The state lost jobs for three consecutive years this decade, many of them casualties of the downturn in travel after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But it wasn't just that: Since 1997, the state has lost 100,700 manufacturing jobs, which often were replaced by lower-paying ones.

...much more...

[Roland99]

10. But look at the good side....

anti-evolution stickers
Runaway brides
same-sex marriage bans


and...


Zell Miller!

[Ghost Dog]

20. "same-sex marriage bans", or banns?

:-)

[fasttense]

23. Just read in our local newspaper that the county's unemployment rate

had improved and was down to 9%. It was 12%. That was what the government reported so you know it was a lot higher

[UpInArms]

26. why does your local newspaper

hate 'Murka? :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

47. GM Eliminates 725 Jobs At Lordstown, Ohio

http://www.onnnews.com/?sec=home&story=ONN/content/pool/200605/1286251494.html

General Motors now says about 725 people will be laid off when the auto maker eliminates its midnight shift at the Lordstown complex near Youngstown.

The shift will be shut down July 17th. More than 1,500 people work on the midnight shift, but GM expects some workers to accept buyouts.

The layoff notices issued Monday were required by federal law.

<snip>

GM blames the shift elimination on lower than expected Chevrolet Cobalt sales.

...more at link...

[WhiteTara]

102. Solidly repuklican state

they deserve it. Filled with Fundie Xtians who are racist and bigotted. I'm sorry for the people who are suffering, but they overwhelmingly supported this regime.

[UpInArms]

11. IRS plan to use private tax collectors runs into snags (bribery scheme)

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2006-05-03-irs-collection-usat_x.htm

A private debt-collection firm tapped by the IRS to seek repayment from Americans who owe back taxes has been tangled in legal controversy, including a bribery scheme involving a collection contract in Texas and a federal investigation of another collection deal in Louisiana.

Linebarger Goggan Blair & Sampson, an Austin law firm, was one of three firms chosen from among 33 bidders in March for the potentially lucrative IRS contract to attempt collection of an estimated $1.4 billion in tax debts over 10 years.

<snip>

• A former Linebarger partner was convicted in a 2002 bribery scheme involving payments to two San Antonio city councilmen who voted to approve a collection contract with the law firm.

• In 2004, Linebarger settled a lawsuit in which a competitor alleged that the law firm offered illegal gifts and bribes, and rigged bids to win collection contracts from several local governments.

• A collection contract that the city of New Orleans awarded to Linebarger and a Louisiana partner organization in 1998 "has been the subject of an FBI investigation."

Additionally, a USA TODAY review of the IRS debt-collection plan shows that one of the unsuccessful bidders had a collection contract suspended in Ohio, and another was accused of making illegal campaign contributions in Texas.

...more...

[trogdor]

49. Caesar Augustus is laughing his ass off at us.

If memory serves, were not the private tax collectors employed by the Roman Empire a favorite target of ridicule in the New Testament?

[AnneD]

53. Yes there were...

and they were hated beyond belief. They were able to keep a portion of what they collected and there were no rules as to what or how they collected. Even if the person didn't owe, there was little to stop a tax collector seizing property. What made Jesus a unique figure is that he hung out among the undesirable, like the poor, prostitutes, and TAX COLLECTORS. The Apostle Matthew was a tax collector before becoming a disciple.

[Ghost Dog]

66. Quoting from a chapter on "The Rise of Islam"

...from a book I have here, "Medieval Civilisation" by (American) Kay Slocum (ISBN 1 85669 444 5)):

"When he was forty years old, in about 610 (the exact chronology is not certain), Muhammed began to receive revelations from Allah. The circumstances were later recorded in several sources, which indicate that he had gone from Mecca to the nearby mountains of Hira for a period of meditation and reflection, as was his custom. On the night that Muslims refer to as "The night of Power and Excellence," he received the first of the revelations. A heavenly visitor, identified by tradition as the angel Gabriel, commanded him to recite. Frightened and bewildered, he responded that he had nothing to say. The angel persisted, and finally the words came to Muhammed:

Recite: In the name of thy Lord who created,

created man out of a blood-clot.
Recite: And thy Lord is the Most Generous,

Who taught by the Pen,
Taught man that he knew not.

<snip>

Within a relatively brief period of time, study of the Qur'an and the summa (or actions) of Muhammed led to the codification of these Islamic practices and beliefs, which became known as the "Five Pillars of Islam". These directives, which continue to be practiced by all Muslims today, consist of the following precepts:

<snip>

IV. All adult Muslims are expected to pay a tax anually, which amounts to a percentage (usually 2½ percent) of their total assets. This tax, known as zakat, is used to support the poor, especially widows and orphans, and to advance the cause of Islam. Zakat is not considered to be charity, since it is not voluntary; it is regarded as a means through which the rich share their God-given wealth with those who are less fortunate.

<snip>

By the time of Muhammed's death in 632, the Muslim community, or umma, had expanded throughout the Arabian peninsula. In the next forty years, the new religion swept through northern Africa with astonishing rapidity, bringing vast new territories under the control of Muhammed's successors. This is in strong contrast to Christianity, which, as discussed in chapter 1, did not become a religion of state until nearly four centuries after the death of Christ.

2.5% must have seemed very reasonable, compared with the moribund Roman Empire's extorsions, for example, or even the 'tithes', indulgences etc. of the already corrupt Christian church/states...

[54anickel]

92. Thanks GD. Sounds like an interesting book. So many uses for

"taxes" collected. When you use BeelzeBush's terms - good or evil - it tends to shed a new light the entire Repuke platform. Should send them scattering like the cockroaches that they are.

[AnneD]

96. I have always been fascinated

with Islamic Law and profit vs the West's the taking of profit (I won't say Christian because so much is usury, which is un Christian). So you wonder where they will put this oil wealth as a trust for their people.

[Ghost Dog]

55. Glad to know some over there have studied some history

...maybe even some geography?

:Sorry: :sarcasm: With you there. :hi:

[AnneD]

57. A little known fact..

One of the fact about the disciples is that Thomas made it all the way to India (no small feat in those days).

Sorry for the double post, guess the fingers were going too fast.

[54anickel]

56. Is that lucrative contract a $3 billion contract over 10 years to collect

$1.4 billion? I wouldn't put it past them these days. Sheesh, lets privatize everything right now and get this over with. Then they can move on to the drowning.

...The privatization initiative is designed to boost collections by supplementing in-house IRS efforts to pursue tax debtors without adding employees to the federal budget. Starting in 2008, the IRS plans to add more collection firms to the effort.

The privatization plan, endorsed by the non-partisan National Taxpayers Union and other groups, will free IRS employees "to work on more complex cases we just aren't getting to right now," said IRS collections director Brady Bennett.

From what I can tell the NTU is another lobbyist organization and I'm not so sure about that non-partisan label this article has given them after perusing their website. They sure back the consumption tax idea. :shrug:

[WhiteTara]

103. pretty soon they are going to outsource citizens!

Geebezus! What the hell is going on? The government is supposed to be handling this, not a bunch of sleazy profiteers!

[UpInArms]

12. OT: Mary Cheney Comes Out About Being a Gay Republican

http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/story?id=1918918&page=1&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

May 3, 2006 — She says she considered quitting her role as campaign adviser over the issue of gay marriage, but Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter Mary Cheney tells ABC News "Primetime" anchor Diane Sawyer her sexuality has never created problems within her family.

Mary Cheney discussed the campaign, her feelings about President Bush, life with her partner of 14 years, and what it was like to come out as gay to her parents.

"I struggled with my decision to stay on the 2004 campaign," Cheney told "Primetime." Her personal challenge came when President Bush said the nation must defend the sanctity of marriage.

When Bush proclaimed it in the State of the Union, she refused to go. Mary Cheney, a senior campaign adviser, was finally taking her stand.

"I didn't want to be there. No one banned me from being there. But I didn't want to stand up and cheer," she said.

<snip>

Cheney has had to deal with hearing hateful names about gays and lesbians from the right wing of her own party. And gay rights activists say that Cheney's silence is just a form of hypocrisy. They even made a milk carton that said, "Mary Cheney Missing."

...more...

[AnneD]

62. This is sooooo...

not news. NOW, if every gay or bi GOP came out of the closet-that would be news, as well as a shock to their wives. These Neo's are corrupt to the core in their lies. I don't care one whit about orientation, but I do care about being dishonest. I care about making life miserable for those openly gay because these Neocons can't deal with their own sexuality in a healthy way.

[UpInArms]

13. US mortgage industry may lose more jobs

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-05-03T211204Z_01_N03431248_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - The decision by the parent of Ameriquest Mortgage Co. to fire one-third of its employees may be the most sweeping recent overhaul by a mortgage lender as rates rise and borrowers retreat.

It may not be the last.

The announcement by Ameriquest's parent ACC Capital to fire 3,800 people and shutter 229 branches reflects an industry groaning as loan growth slows, competition rises, margins narrow -- and some 500,000 people hope to keep their jobs.

"A year from now, I expect employment in this industry to be 20 to 25 percent lower," said Michael Moskowitz, president of Equity Now, a New York lender. "This will be driven by a need for increased efficiency, and lower production."

Historically low mortgage rates have fueled a five-year housing boom, and supported U.S. economic growth. But signs are clear that the market is cooling, amid forecasts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more.

"We think 40 percent of the people who are buying homes are merely speculators," said David Olson, co-founder of Wholesale Access in Columbia, Maryland, which tracks the industry. "It would be good for prices to burst, because sooner or later no one will be able to afford a house."

...more...

[RawMaterials]

19. OMG:

"We think 40 percent of the people who are buying homes are merely speculators," said David Olson,

"It would be good for prices to burst, because sooner or later no one will be able to afford a house."

[CabalPowered]

54. I'd say that number is right on target, at least for my area

Californians are coming in and buying everything, usually site unseen and putting them on the rental market. At the same time, new apartment construction is booming. Now we have a flood of rentals with high rents and there simply isn't enough high end renters. Either rents have to come down or the purchaser is eating the mortgage. Dangerous game IMO.

[UpInArms]

14. War Funding Bill Nears Senate Vote As Price Tag Keeps Growing

http://www.kotv.com/main/home/storiesPrint.asp?id=103567&type=t

WASHINGTON (AP) _ A $108 billion-plus bill to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and hurricane relief on the Gulf Coast continues to grow despite a veto threat from President Bush.

The Senate voted Tuesday to protect homestate projects added by some of its most senior members as the tide turned against efforts by spending hawks to strip them out. The bill heads to a final Senate vote Wednesday.

While conservatives pressed and lost a 59-40 vote to cut $6 million in aid to Hawaii sugar companies to recover from flood damages caused by recent torrential rains, they allowed without protest $1.6 billion to be added to the measure for levees and other flood control projects in and around New Orleans.

<snip>

Bush proposed paying for his updated request for New Orleans flood control projects by cutting from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's chief relief fund, which finances a wide variety of disaster activities.

<snip>

But the way the White House chose to finance the levee aid it proposed just last week, by tapping FEMA coffers, is hardly perfect. The White House acknowledges that the effect of cutting FEMA funding means they would have to be replenished again in the fall instead lasting until next year as originally planned.

...more...

[54anickel]

64. Senator pushes Navy to reimburse Northrop for post-Katrina delays

Somewhat related. I came across this yesterday following some links to UIA's post to a google on "pentagon contract"...

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0406/041106cdpm1.htm

Senate Appropriations Chairman Thad Cochran, R-Miss., has added language to the fiscal 2006 emergency supplemental to require the Navy to pay for up to $500 million that shipbuilder Northrop Grumman Corp. could lose as a result of post-Katrina contracting delays.

The Pentagon and House Republicans are opposing the language in the $106.5 billion bill that would require the Navy to pay the defense giant for "business disruption" costs in advance of any insurance settlement. Such costs generally are covered by insurance, but Northrop and its insurer are in litigation over damage to a Northrop facility in Mississippi, Cochran's home state.

more...



Bit off topic, this also floated to the top of that "Pentagon Contract" search

Did the U.S. invent al-Qaeda boss Zarqawi?
http://www.rockrivertimes.com/index.pl?cmd=viewstory&cat=2&id=13111

snip>

But there is reason to believe that may all be a bunch of hype and disinformation planted by the administration. Western media, according to Professor Michel Chossudovsky, editor of Global Research.ca, have consistently depicted Zarqawi as a brutal terrorist, but said nothing about the Pentagon’s disinformation campaign, which has been known and documented since 2002.

The Washington Post recently published that the role of Zarqawi has been deliberately “magnified” by the Pentagon in an attempt to gain support for the “war on terror.” Chossudovsky said: “The Zarqawi campaign is discussed in several of the internal military documents. ‘Villainize Zarqawi/leverage xenophobia response,’ one military briefing from 2004 stated. It listed three methods: ‘media operations,’ ‘Special Ops (626),’ (a reference to Task Force 626, an elite U.S. military unit assigned primarily to hunt in Iraq for senior officials in Hussein’s government) and ‘PSYOP,’ the U.S. military term for propaganda work.”

snip>

Also, an internal document produced by U.S. military headquarters in Iraq, says “the Zarqawi PSYOP program is the most successful information campaign to date.”

snip>

Bailey then organized another subsidiary, Iraqex, which was awarded a $6 million Pentagon contract to begin “an aggressive advertising and PR campaign that will accurately inform the Iraqi people of the coalition’s goals and gain their support.”


Looks like a lot of our tax dollars are funding "home state" pork and lying to ourselves. Ain't Murika Grand?! :argh:

[UpInArms]

67. We now have the fat Zarqawi and the thin Zarqawi, just like the

fat Osama and the thin Osama.

The legless Zarqawi, the two-legged Zarqawi

The masked confessing be-heading Zarqawi and the unmasked threatening Zarqawi

:eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

70. Re. Zarqaui, Spanish readers see here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x208030

(Working, off and on, on the translation now).

[PassingFair]

82. You forgot the ....

SUCKING CHEST WOUND!

[54anickel]

124. Now the incompetent Zarqawi.....Zarqawi the Clown?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2263450

U-S Command unveils unflattering video snippet of al-Qaida in Iraq leader

BAGHDAD, Iraq Newly released video of the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq shows Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (AH'-boo MOO'-sahb ahl-zahr-KOW'-ee) decked out in American tennis shoes and fumbling with a machine gun.

The U-S military command says the footage was found during a series of raids in April on purported terror cell safe houses southwest of Baghdad.

Major General Rick Lynch says al-Zarqawi chose not to show the world this piece of video in which he's wearing "his New Balance tennis shoes," and in which his associates "do things like grab the hot barrel of the machine gun and burn themselves."

http://www.ktre.com/Global/story.asp?S=4859743&nav=2FH5

[UpInArms]

99. Senate passes nearly $109 billion emergency-spending bill (* veto threat?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B21D262E4%2DD928%2D49D4%2D9475%2D7AC279540334%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Senate defied a veto threat from President Bush, voting 78-20 on Thursday to pass an emergency spending bill totaling nearly $109 billion. The bill includes funds for ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as money for ongoing hurricane-recovery efforts on the Gulf Coast. Senators also added billions for other projects. Bush has threatened to veto any final legislation that exceeds his initial request for a bill totaling around $92 billion plus some additional money for bird-flu pandemic preparedness. The Senate bill must now be reconciled with a smaller House package.

[UpInArms]

15. Chief's Pay Is Docked by Raytheon for Plaigarism

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/04/business/04raytheon.html?ex=1304395200&en=eb0039aabc33b336&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Raytheon directors punished the chief executive, William H. Swanson, by taking away almost $1 million from his 2006 compensation yesterday because he failed to give credit for material that was in a management book he wrote.

Mr. Swanson's pay cut will come in two ways. His 2006 salary will be frozen at its 2005 level and his 2006 restricted stock award will be reduced 20 percent, Raytheon said. The cuts would come to nearly $1 million according to a person close to the board, who was granted anonymity because he was disclosing proprietary information.

<snip>

The punishment also comes as Raytheon has stopped circulating the book, "Swanson's Unwritten Rules of Management," a folksy book that turned Mr. Swanson into a management sage and earned him praise from business leaders like Jack Welch and Warren E. Buffett.

<snip>

But many of the rules were later found to have been taken from a 1944 engineering classic, "The Unwritten Laws of Engineering," written by W. J. King, an engineering professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. Of Mr. Swanson's 33 rules, 17 were in the 1944 book, often word for word.

In addition, The Boston Herald reported yesterday on its Web site that Mr. Swanson had lifted four rules — 1 through 4 — from a list of maxims collected by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and published in The Wall Street Journal in 2001 as Rumsfeld's Rules. The first rule in both Mr. Swanson's and Mr. Rumsfeld's list is the same: "Learn to say 'I don't know.' If used when appropriate, it will be used often."

The Herald also found that Mr. Swanson's rule No. 32 was similar to a life lesson about rude treatment of waiters that was in the book "Dave Barry Turns 50," written by Mr. Barry, the humor columnist.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. US can't find birthplace of latest mad cow

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2006/05/03/us_cant_find_birthplace_of_latest_mad_cow/?rss_id=Boston.com+%2F+News

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal officials say they cannot find the birthplace of the latest U.S. case of mad cow disease but see little risk the birth herd is harboring more cattle infected with the fatal, brain-wasting malady.

"Experience worldwide has shown that it is highly unusual to find (mad cow) in more than one animal in a herd or in an affected animal's offspring," said John Clifford, U.S. Agriculture Department chief veterinarian, in announcing the investigation was closed.

In the two previous U.S. cases, the birth herd was located, a USDA spokesman said on Wednesday. The first, a dairy cow in Washington state, was tracked to a Canadian farm. The second case, a beef cow in Texas, spent its life on the same farm.

The latest case, reported on March 13, was a red-coated crossbreed beef cow in Alabama that was purchased less than a year before it fell ill. It was hard to track, Clifford said, because it was more than 10 years old and carried no tattoos, ear tags or branding marks.

The case complicated U.S. efforts to persuade Japan to re-open its markets to American beef. Some consumer groups and lawmakers called for more stringent safeguards against the spread of mad cow disease and speedy adoption of an animal-tracking system, now voluntary and not expected to be in full operation until 2009.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Suppress this data. Where's the beef? n/t

[FarLeftRage]

21. kitco's web site is down...

Are they having problems?

[UpInArms]

24. just came up for me

http://www.kitco.com/market/

[FarLeftRage]

29. Now it is up...

I tried it about 5 minutes ago and it wasn't there... Hmmmm.

[UpInArms]

22. Airline Baggage Problems Growing Worse

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-lost-baggage,1,127777.story?coll=chi-business-hed

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

WASHINGTON -- Add this to the nightmare scenario for summer air travelers: the growing chance that their baggage is on another flight, possibly to a different destination.

A congressional panel on Wednesday seemed sympathetic, but left the clear impression help is not on the way.

"I'm afraid more baggage turmoil is almost an inevitability," said Rep. John Mica, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation.

<snip>

When the number of mishandled bags jumps, it usually is because an airline is having a specific problem, Meanen said. Often the problem is staffing, he said.

Too few workers was the reason for massive problems with US Airways passengers' bags over the 2004 Christmas holiday season, according to a report by the Transportation Department's inspector general.

...more...

[AnneD]

50. Hubby and I

qualify as frequent international flyer, but our luggage has seen more of the world than we have. Boy can I attest to poor baggage handling. On different occasions they have: smashed hubby's sitar before a concert tour or damaged it so badly we had to beg for parts from students in said country, allowed a cellist to have his instrument on board but forced hubby to put his in baggage (his was the more delicate-less easily replace instrument), lost hubby's luggage for 6 months (and when it was found-it could only be called luggage in the loosest sense of the word).
I learned my lesson early in life. I carry on only. I spent 6 weeks in Europe and lived out of a carry on only. It takes planning and compromise but it can be done. If I buy souvenirs, transport is a consideration. Souvenirs can go in the luggage hold unless they are particularly valuable.

[Ghost Dog]

68. The sitar is especially valuable. Thanks n/t.

[AnneD]

90. I thought we were being a bit sensitive

when they made him put it in baggage. The guy with the cello was ahead of us in line. One of our friends and a student were with us said it was blatent discrimination and they were rude to boot. They were so upset that they wrote letters of complaint to the airlines. We wrote one too when we can back.

When we are touring I play second fiddle to the sitar;). It was after several months of marriage before he trusted me with the sitar. We were in a car accident. Before I even checked on Hubby, I went to the back seat and pulled out the sitar to make sure it was ok. We laughed about it because he had the same thoughts-he just couldn't move as quick at the time. My daughter did the same thing when when we had an accident and she had the oboe (hand made in Italy). The heck with your health-how are the instruments.

We have never traveled that airline since. We have gotten the best treatment on British Airways, Air Emirate, Swiss Air, and Southwest.

[Ghost Dog]

100. Sounds like a lot of 'accidents'. Take care. n/t.

[AnneD]

105. Just fender benders...

there are so many construction zones and people drive so crazy here sometimes. And then there are the tropical rains (one was in a blinding rainstorm, the other due to construction). We actually have good driving records, I promise. The roughest driving is in the mountains in winter. I could write a book on that.

[UpInArms]

27. FedSpew: Bies worries about credit quality at banks

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-04T121224Z_01_N04423080_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-BIES-UPDATE-1.XML

excerpt:

Bies also reiterated the concerns U.S. regulators have about the proliferation of non-traditional mortgage products, such as interest-only loans, and the easing of underwriting standards that is reflected in practices such as extending loans while requiring little documentation from the borrower.

"While the credit quality of residential mortgages generally remains strong, the Federal Reserve and other banking supervisors are concerned that current risk-management techniques may not fully address the level of risk inherent in nontraditional mortgages, a risk that would be heightened by a downturn in the housing market," she said.

Bies also discussed proposed guidance on commercial real estate lending. She said it was "not intended to cap or restrict banks' participation in the commercial real estate sector, but rather to remind institutions that proper risk management and adequate capital are essential components of a sound (commercial real estate) lending strategy."

As she has in the past, she said regulators were proposing the guidance, in part, because they had seen high and rising concentrations of commercial real estate loans on banks' books relative to bank capital.

<snip>

"When we see possibly excessive risk-taking or inappropriate risk management or controls, we must act," she said in explaining the guidance on both exotic mortgages and commercial real estate lending.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds temporary bank reserves via 14-day repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-04T122459Z_01_N04242941_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via 14-day repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.875 percent, above the Fed's 4.750 percent current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

39. Treasury price losses build after unit labor cost data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5334C6AC%2D8FCE%2D4704%2D9313%2D447546503C93%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury price losses intensified early Thursday, sending yields higher, after the Labor Department announced an increase in labor costs, alongside a productivity gain, for the first quarter. The yield ($TNX 51.67, +0.23, +0.4% ) on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 5.164% from 5.15% before the report. Unit labor costs, a key gauge of inflation, rose 2.5%, much higher than the 1.3% gain expected by MarketWatch economists. The fixed-income market abhors inflation because it eats into the value of bonds and increases the chances for a hawkish U.S. monetary policy. Productivity rose 3.2%, exceeding the 2.9% gain predicted by MarketWatch. Separately, the department said initial jobless claims in the latest week increased by 5,000 to 322,000, the highest level since November.

[UpInArms]

52. Rising rents may push CPI higher, Fed's Bies says (but we'll ignore it)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060504/bs_nm/economy_fed_bies_inflation_dc

ORLANDO (Reuters) - The U.S. consumer price index may move higher as the U.S. housing market slows and the rental market strengthens, Federal Reserve Board Governor Susan Bies said on Thursday.

Noting that the CPI's gauge of housing costs is based on rents, Bies told a banking conference in answer to a question: "We've come through a period of weaker rents. Now, housing has really sort of peaked ... that may rejuvenate rents and so you may see may see that, in turn, higher (CPI) inflation going forward."

Bies said, however, the Fed focuses more heavily on the core personal consumption expenditures price index than the CPI.

[AnneD]

107. Rents are up here in Houston

as is occupancy levels. However, with all the Katrina folks, I don't think we are representative of the national rental market. What WILL be interesting is to see what happens when the voucher program expires. I can see a rise in the homeless population.

[moroni]

40. Earnings Announcements for May 4th from Yahoo

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20060504.html

[UpInArms]

43. AOL loses 835,000 subscribers

Maybe those AOHell subscribers grew weary of having their internet experience censored. :eyes:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-2164450,00.html

AOL, Time Warner’s troubled internet business, lost 835,000 subscribers and its operating profits dived by 17 per cent in the first quarter of the year, the world’s biggest media group admitted yesterday.

Shares in Time Warner fell nearly 2 per cent on the news, even as the company announced that a strong performance by its cable division had boosted net income by 59 per cent in the first quarter.

The media group said that total group net income in the quarter was $1.46 billion (£790 million), compared with $915 million in the same period in 2005. Revenue was nearly flat at $10.46 billion, compared with $10.36 billion.

However, revenue at AOL continued to sink as new advertising revenue was more than offset by lost subscribers. AOL revenue fell by 7 per cent to $1.98 billion, as it lost 835,000 subscribers in the quarter, dropping to 18.6 million subscribers.

...more...

[corporate_mike]

98. It's amazing that 18.6 million people still pay $23.95 for dial-up

[UpInArms]

45. Cable Company Apologizes to Retired Teacher For $1,126 Cable Bill

http://www.wtlv.com/news/strange/news-article.aspx?storyid=57020

YONKERS, N.Y. (AP) -- The retired schoolteacher who denied watching porn, wrestling and gangsta rap on pay-per-view and disputed her $1,126 cable bill has won her battle with Cablevision - and an apology.

<snip>

The company insisted that someone in her home must have ordered the extra services, but Lee, who lives alone, said she didn't. The only regular visitor to her house her 81-year-old mother, she said, "and I don't think she wants to watch porn."

In a statement issued Wednesday, Cablevision said it was continuing its investigation, but it said that "As a courtesy to a long-standing customer, we have credited the account in full for all disputed pay-per-view orders and apologized to Ms. Lee for her negative customer experience."

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

46. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.8.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.7. Futures indications are languishing near session lows, now suggesting more of a mixed start for the indices. Oil prices off another 1.3% to around $71.30 a barrel offer some relief but the Energy sector's inability to provide leadership may continue to remind investors that the most influential area in terms of earnings growth for the S&P is unlikely to grow at the same torrid pace of late.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.2. Still shaping up to be a subdued start for stocks. A preliminary read on Q1 productivity just came in at 3.2% (consensus 2.8%), as unit labor costs rose 2.5%. Bonds, which were flat ahead of the report, have inched lower, as the 10-yr note is now down 4 ticks to yield 5.15%. Initial claims rose 5K to 322K (consensus 310K); however, the claims data have had little impact on trading as investors remain more focused on tomorrow's influential employment report.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.2. Futures versus fair value are signaling a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market as investors sift through more earnings reports and April same-store sales figures from more than 60 retailers. Tyco (TYC) beat by a penny but issued downside Q3 guidance while Starbucks (SBUX), Prudential (PRU), and CVS Corp (CVS) are among other notable names to deliver positive EPS surprises. The majority of same-store sales results (e.g. ANN, AEOS, COST, GYMB, JWN, and TLB) coming in better than expected is also providing some early support.

[UpInArms]

48. 9:34 EST LaLa Land: Not a Care in the World, Not a Cloud in the Sky

Dow 11,430.61 +30.33 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,313.34 +9.37 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1,311.00 +3.15 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 5.148 +0.04 (+0.08%)

NYSE Volume 63,369,000
Nasdaq Volume 91,960,000

[UpInArms]

58. Copper jumps over 5%; gold climbs in morning dealings

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1583C019%2D08D6%2D4ED8%2D9498%2D91DB71611656%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- July copper climbed 18 cents to $3.485 a pound after touching a record of $3.492. BHP Billiton (BHP 46.68, -0.28, -0.6% ) said Thursday that copper from mines is unlikely to catch up with surging demand by the start of 2008. June gold also climbed $5.80 to $674.30 an ounce following a high of $675.80. Gold futures rose to close to $680 on Wednesday, their highest price since October 1980.

[UpInArms]

59. Copper rallies; low inventories cited

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/881xJWk88pM57vJ0XF7rT2h?siteid=mktw&dist=morenews

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Copper futures rallied early Thursday, taking their cue from a growing conviction in the metals pits that prices for the metal are justified by the current state of industry fundamentals.

Overnight, mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd. said it views both refined copper and copper concentrate markets as "very positive," reflecting low stockpiles as well as expectations that production disruptions are likely to continue.

Inventories at current levels provide a floor under copper prices, BHP Billiton (BHP 46.75, -0.21, -0.4% ) said during a briefing on its base metals business, adding: "From such low levels, it will take some time to rebuild stock to normal levels." Click here for presentation.

<snip>

Against this backdrop, July-dated copper moved up 13.7 cents to $3.443 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract set an all-time high at $3.48, on the heels of Wednesday's gain of 2.85 cents to $3.305 a pound.

...more...

[54anickel]

72. Higher Metals Prices Bring Boom to Area Coin Dealers

http://www.kolotv.com/news/features/6/2719166.html

snip>

The higher prices are bringing both buyers and sellers into the market, although coin dealers say buyers outnumber the customers wanting to cash in.
“They figure if they buy now, they’re going to ride the train on the way up,” says Larry Demangate, owner of Sierra Coin in Reno.

Kathleen Danforth, owner of Reno Coin Co., says business started picking up at her shop about a month ago when the silver price rose above $10 an ounce. She says most buyers at her business are spending between a few hundred dollars and $1,000 on smaller silver pieces, such as one-ounce rounds and 10-ounce bars.

But the price spike isn't the only thing luring investors.

Demangate says the eroding strength of the dollar, the federal government deficit, skyrocketing oil prices and the uncertain world political situation have many people wanting to diversify their holdings. “Gold is an insurance policy,” he says.

Southgate Coins has people on waiting lists for one-ounce gold bullion coins and bags ($1,000 face value) of “junk silver” coins. The most popular gold coins are American Eagles, Goe says, which feature the image of an American eagle feeding her young. Meanwhile, many people who have been out of the market request Kruggerands because those were the predominant one-ounce gold coin years ago. South Africa began producing them in 1967. Other countries followed with their own one-ounce gold coins, including China, the United States, Austria and Australia.

more...

[54anickel]

75. ANALYSIS-Herd mentality takes hold of commodities

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nL27636019

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Once a disparate group of small, illiquid markets, commodities are now a cohesive asset class, where big jumps on one exchange can ripple through the sector.

Last week conflicting news on interest rates caused gold, oil, copper and even sugar prices to fall in tandem and then rally together in a kneejerk reaction.

Fears about Iran's nuclear ambitions have also driven widespread buying since the start of the year, but the biggest single factor is China and its huge appetite for all raw materials.

"We notice oil has been rallying at the same time as copper and gold," said Deborah White of SG CIB in Paris. "That, we think has to do with the funds."

For others China is the more significant unifier.

more...

[UpInArms]

80. June Gold @ $678.20 oz - July Silver @ $14.08 oz - July Copper @ $3.498 lb

11:29 AM ET 5/4/06 JUNE GOLD CLIMBS $9.70 TO $678.20/OZ AFTER $679.80 HIGH

11:29 AM ET 5/4/06 JULY COPPER GAINS 18.8C, OR 5.7%, TO $3.498/LB

11:29 AM ET 5/4/06 JULY SILVER RISES 28.5C, OR 2.1%, TO $14.08/OZ

[54anickel]

81. Bull in Bear's Skin? Hmmmm, sumptin to think about....

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Fekete/may042006.html

snip>

Contrary to popular beliefs, the shorts are not stupid. Nor are they suicidal. They are responsible businessmen well able to calculate, including calculation of the cost of transportation by the fastest conveyances available such as supersonic aircraft if need be to carry supplies half-way around the globe. Whenever they sell short, they are not acting on impulse. They act on cold facts. They know full well that the futures markets fail to be symmetric. They know that there is a built-in bias favoring the longs at the expense of the bears: the risk shouldered by the former is limited (as the price cannot fall below zero) while that shouldered by the latter is unlimited (as the price can theoretically go to infinity). Whereas an individual short seller might miscalculate, it is virtually impossible that the shorts collectively would.

Are the shorts really naked?

It is a fatal mistake to underestimate your opponents, in this case the short sellers in precious metals, arguably the smartest lot on earth. They know how to do what Aristotle and latter-day economists have said was impossible: to make gold beget gold. I don’t for a moment give credence to the fable that the commercials are selling short naked. Most of their short position is hedged most of the time, if not directly by metal in their possession, then certainly indirectly by metal in the possession of the principals, i.e., for whom they act as a man of straw. The commercials are agents. They act on behalf of their customers, be they wealthy individuals who want to sell call options or futures on their gold hoard anonymously, or banks and governments that do not want you to find out what they are up to. The fact is that selling covered calls and puts is a more efficient way for a bull to husband his resources than buying gold and sitting on it.

Consider the hypothetical scenario that the government of Israel wants unobtrusively accumulate gold. Or, to furnish an example of a more populous country, let’s assume that the government of China wants unobtrusively to accumulate silver in any conceivable amounts. The task is cut out for both countries. They have respectable hoards to begin with. Gold is the most portable form of wealth and the most frequently mentioned word in the Bible after God. China has been on a silver standard since time immemorial and did not participate in the silver-demonetization farce of the 19th century. The best course of action for a government wanting to accumulate gold or silver is to mislead the market by fomenting the bearish case. The net short position in gold represents its stake that it is willing to risk in an effort to get more gold and silver through market manipulation. In other words, the net short position is only apparent, a red herring to throw gold bugs off the scent. It is the tip of the iceberg that you can see and touch. What you don’t see and can’t touch is the bulk of the iceberg submerged: the huge physical gold and silver hoards that the owner wants to increase further by hook or crook. It can be done by hiring agents in the commodity pits. The commercials sell the metals short in excess of visible supplies, acting on behalf of their faceless principals. They sell more gold than the future output of the mines going out five years. They sell more silver than the total inventory held in exchange warehouses. The longs take the bait eagerly. They buy and hold in the hope that the shorts are overextended and will not be able to deliver. The point is that this is exactly what the shorts want them to believe.

It is easy to predict what will happen in such a situation. The longs are sitting ducks and the shorts keep preying on them. They raid them periodically so that, after the shake-out, they can pick up gold and silver dropped by weak hands. Not only do they buy back what they have sold short as bait; they pick up a lot more. It is a wolf in sheep’s skin or, if you like, a bull in bear’s skin. The name of the game is to mislead the public and induce it to give up monetary metals for a pottage of lentils. I am not putting this forth as a thesis. It can never be proved or disproved. It is merely a hypothesis more plausible than the one suggesting that the shorts are as stupid as they are suicidal.

snip>

Can depression be averted?

Where does all this leave us? The short-covering and profit-taking charade will continue, possibly for several years to come. There will be no disorderly cut-and-run by the shorts and no meteoric rise in the price. Spectacular rises, yes. But they will be followed by equally spectacular and sometimes protracted corrections testing the stamina, staying power, and intestinal fortitude of the longs. Volatility will increase faster than the moving averages. Exchange rules may be changed unilaterally favoring the shorts, prejudicial to the longs.

Obituaries of the dollar are a bit premature. We cannot rule out the possibility that policy-makers favor a controlled devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold. By now they must realize that bilateral devaluations against selected currencies will never work. They would provoke trade wars and competitive currency devaluations. By contrast, a 1979-80 style devaluation of all currencies against gold should be acceptable to all governments, even though the outcome would be the same. The dollar would be devalued against other currencies at various rates, higher for the yen, less for the euro, and least for the renminbi. The trading partners of the U.S. would tolerate that without retaliating with discriminating tariffs and quotas.

more...

[54anickel]

83. Gold Hedging – How and Why? Part I and II

Gold Hedging – How and Why? Part I
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliFeaturePage.asp?PageID=%7B13D8CD26-A25E-434D-B77D-74C629249134%7D

When gold is in the news, gold miners are in the news, and when gold miners are in the news, the focus turns to hedge books. What exactly is gold hedging, and why do gold miners hedge?

In 1854, Peter Lalor led a miners' rebellion at the Eureka Stockade. Miners brandished a Southern Cross flag which has become the symbol of worker solidarity in Australia ever since.

In 1984 a mining company, founded by Lalor descendents Peter and Chris, produced its first gold. They called the company Sons of Gwalia. In 2004 it was the third biggest gold miner in the country, just before it collapsed. This time it was the shareholders who revolted.

There were production problems at Gwalia leading up to its demise, but the bottom line was not about production, it was about hedging. Gwalia had fallen into the trap of treating its hedge book as a means of making a profit, rather than a means of preventing a loss.

What, then, is gold hedging all about?

more...

Gold Hedging – How and Why? Part II
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliFeaturePage.asp?PageID=%7BC58E4E5B-3CDF-467F-83CA-1EC9DF2FD0DA%7D

This all sounds very sensible doesn't it? The problem is, however, that it creates a dilemma for the shareholder of the mining company. An investor with a diversified portfolio can always sell out of gold mining shares if the view is that the gold price will go down. In a way, the shareholder is really not bothered with a need for the mining company to be hedged.

But where the shareholder loses out is on the upside. The price of gold might rally (and this is why an investor would hold gold mining stock) but the value of the shares may not rally in the same proportion by virtue of the hedge – the predetermined sales price obligations of the mining company.

This then becomes a quandary for the mining company, which may need to attract equity funding in order to proceed with a mining venture. Should the answer be simply death or glory? Should mining companies just not hedge?

Some don't, but then some have to. Hedging can be divided into that which is "discretionary" – on the decision of the mining company – and that which is "non-discretionary" – on the insistence of a third party.

That third party would be a lender of start-up capital for a particular mining project. It might be just a bank. Insistence may also come in the form of a necessity within a debt instrument of specific maturity, underwritten by an investment bank or other institution. While equity holders look to the upside, debt holders fear the downside.

more...

[54anickel]

84. Gold hedging sees big fall in the first quarter

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/economy.aspx?ID=BD4A195098

LONDON - Major gold miners significantly reduced their hedging commitments in the first quarter of the year, a report sponsored by Mitsui Precious Metals said today.

The report said the global hedgebook fell by 5,0 million ounces to an estimated 48 million ounces, mainly due to a massive reduction by the world’s biggest miner Barrick Gold, which cut forward sales by 4,7 million ounces.

"This is the largest quarterly decline since Q1 2003, when the global hedge book was a much larger 78 million ounces and marks a turnaround in the much lower levels of dehedging seen recently," the report said.

Dehedging in the previous two quarters was below 500,000 ounces.

"Barrick’s enormous hedgebook reduction provides a compelling explanation for the robust gold price in Q1 and Q2," said John Levin, head of marketing for Mitsui.

more...

[UpInArms]

85. Copper futures top $3.50; gold up as much as $11

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA378166D%2D39CA%2D445B%2D8DBF%2D4F4167EE8EF3%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June copper climbed to a record $3.505 a pound late Thursday morning. It was last trading at $3.48, up 17.5 cents, or 5.3%. Copper's move "has been fueled by the same old stories of ongoing concern about inadequate supply and production difficulties," said William Adams, an analyst at BaseMetals.com. June gold climbed $9.30 to $677.80 an ounce. The session's high of $679.80 matches the peak from Wednesday, which was the highest futures level since October 1980.

[54anickel]

108. Gold: It's not Iran, Stupid

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Texashedge/may032006.html

TEHRAN, Iran - Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shocked the world today when he, all of the sudden, decided to wind down his country’s nuclear program and make peace with the West. “Today I have decided to replace our plans for nuclear energy with eco-friendly wind power. Furthermore, I look forward to my upcoming trip to Tel Aviv where I will introduce a free trade agreement for the greater Middle East.” Markets reacted immediately sending oil back down to $40/bbl and gold to $300/oz as tensions in the region have evaporated.

The preceding scenario is obviously fictitious, but you wouldn’t guess it based on the mainstream media’s reaction to rising commodity prices, especially gold. For the past few weeks, as gold has inched its way closer to an all-time high set over two decades ago, the talking heads have cited events in Iran as the catalyst for precious metal price increases. If tensions were to suddenly cool down, then everything would be hunky-dory in the world of rising commodity prices. Okay, maybe we can buy this argument for crude oil, where the price per barrel likely has a small unquantifiable geopolitical risk premium built into it. But for gold, this argument is hogwash.

We have all read reports of upper-class Iranians stockpiling gold as tensions continue to rise, but this shouldn’t really have much of an effect on the price level as Iranian demand is a rounding error in the world of gold. The reason why gold has more than doubled over the last four years has to do with the diminishing amount of confidence in paper assets, namely those denominated in U.S. dollars. Savvy investors in Asia and Europe are very much aware of the risks of holding dollars, yet most of us in the Western Hemisphere are still asleep at the wheel. Ninety-nine percent of Americans haven’t got a clue about gold. Maybe 1 out of 1000 Americans under the age of 40 even know what a Kruggerrand is – yet the media is portraying those who buy gold as doing so for Iran protection.

bit more...

[Ghost Dog]

127. Bullshit "events in Iran". This is about "events in USA". n fucking t.

[54anickel]

128. Don't hold back GD! Tell me how you really feel. Heh-heh!! n/f/t!

[54anickel]

109. Jewelry Demand and the Gold Price

http://www.kitco.com/ind/VanEeden/may012006.html

snip>

Gold is money; it is not a commodity. Its value relative to fiat currencies is purely a function of the relative inflation rates of gold and other currencies. The gold price may fluctuate based on investor psychology, just like the price of any financial asset, but it will always revert back to its fundamental value, which is determined by relative inflation rates.

Just like the inflation rate of money is the increase in money supply, the inflation rate of gold is the increase in the above-ground stock of gold, i.e. mine production as a percentage of all the gold that has ever been mined. If we know what the inflation rate of a particular currency is we can calculate its relative value to gold, assuming we have a starting point at which we knew what the fair value of the currency was. This can be done for the US dollar. In 1933 the gold price was defined by the fact that a $20 gold coin contained 0.9675 ounces of gold. From this we know that the gold price in US dollars during 1933 was $20.67. If we now take in consideration the inflation rate of the US dollar (as defined by M3 and the Consumer Price Index for those years that M3 did not exist), and the inflation rate of gold (annual mine production) we can calculate that the gold price in US dollars should be around $850 an ounce.

However, gold is not unique to the United States; it is an international form of money and so we also have to take into consideration the US dollar exchange rate, since anything we price on international markets in US dollars will fluctuate along with changes in the US dollar exchange rate. We know from the US trade deficit that the US dollar is over-priced on foreign exchange markets and the US is putting considerable pressure on China to help devalue the dollar. The only reason gold is not $850 an ounce (or thereabout) today is that the US dollar is over-priced. As the US dollar exchange rate falls the gold price in US dollars will rise.

Like all markets there is a real possibility that the gold price will overshoot its fair value and the gold price could therefore exceed $850 an ounce. But like all markets the gold price is bound to return to its fair market value in the event that it does overshoot the mark. Also, keep in mind that the value of gold in US dollars will increase over time in proportion to the inflation rate of the US dollar. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve of the United States has stopped publishing M3 data and so we have lost a great tool for gauging the dollar’s inflation rate. Historically the inflation rate of the dollar has almost always outpaced the inflation rate of gold, so the longer it takes before the dollar exchange rate falls, the higher the fair value of gold in US dollars becomes.

more...

[UpInArms]

114. Gold closes @ $676.50 oz - July Silver @ $13.825 - July Copper @ 3.4795 lb

1:45 PM ET 5/4/06 GOLD FUTURES CLOSE AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE SEPT. 1980

1:45 PM ET 5/4/06 JUNE GOLD UP $8, OR 1.2%, TO CLOSE AT $676.50/OZ

1:40 PM ET 5/4/06 JULY COPPER UP 17.45C, OR 5.3%, TO END AT RECORD $3.4795/LB

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0BE9C8D8%2DCCDE%2D49BD%2DAB53%2D53C2E61BE504%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Thursday at their highest level since September 1980, with the June contract up $8 to close at $676.50 an ounce. July silver also gained 3 cents to close at $13.825 an ounce after falling 2.9% in the previous session. July copper closed at an all-time high of $3.4795 per pound, up 17.45 cents for the session. Prices reached a record intraday high of $3.505 earlier on concerns about tight copper supplies.

[UpInArms]

63. 10:14 EST Boundless Joy on WS

Dow 11,457.11 +56.83 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,323.98 +20.01 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,314.66 +6.81 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 5.142 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 405,049,000
Nasdaq Volume 446,698,000

10:00 am : Equities are still on the offensive as nine out of ten sectors post early gains. Despite lowering its FY06 EPS outlook, a fivefold surge in Q2 profits at Tyco International (TYC 27.76 +0.82) has boosted the stock more than 3.0% and is helping Industrials turn in the morning's best performance. The Dow Transports hitting a historic high, benefiting from further deterioration in oil and an 14% surge in Expeditors International (EXPD 100.20 +12.44), which posted a 70% rise in Q1 profits, raised its dividend and announced a 2-for-1 stock spilt, is also providing sector support. Technology is also providing some early leadership as the announcement of a new targeted advertising offensive against Google (GOOG 395.48 +1.31) sparks renewing interest in Microsoft (MSFT 23.49 +0.32) following yesterday's 3.5% slide. Energy, however, is the lower again as crude oil prices now near $71.40 a barrel (-1.2%) spurs consolidation in refiners, explorers and drillers.DJ30 +46.98 DJTA +2.6% NASDAQ +14.51 SOX +0.9% SP500 +4.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1093/1346/328 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1015/1567/210 mln

09:40 am : Market opens on an upbeat note, bouncing back in the wake of yesterday's modest consolidation efforts. Despite prices at the pump jumping 13% last month and still hovering around $3 per gallon, a later Easter holiday and warmer weather in April made for a very strong month for retailers, helping stocks overall regain some upside momentum. Among the discounters, Wal-Mart (WMT 46.86 +0.17) reported a 6.8% increase in comparable sales, in line with its recent pre-announcement, while Costco (COST 54.99 +1.03) topped forecasts with a 7% rise in April comps. Teen retailers American Eagle (AEOS 32.47 -0.06) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 62.75 +2.41) posted gains of 19.0% and 17.0%, respectively, while specialty apparel names Talbots (TLB 25.11 +1.58) and Limited Brands (LTD 25.96 +1.72) also posted strong monthly sales. Gap (GPS 18.35 +0.32), a suggested Active Portfolio holding, showed that it continues to turn things around with a smaller than expected decline, while Gymboree (GYMB 31.55 +0.48), another suggested holding, blew away forecasts again with 19% year/year comps growth. ..RLX +0.6%.DJ30 +41.74 NASDAQ +10.59 SP500 +3.75 NASDAQ Vol 126 mln NYSE Vol 64 mln

[Ghost Dog]

69. Uh oh. Gold caressing $675 again

In NY trade!

ed: (and London still open...)

[UpInArms]

73. Campos: Rich-poor gap widens (counters WH shill spew from this wk)

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/opinion_columnists/article/0,2777,DRMN_23972_4665381,00.html

excerpt:

But "average" is a tricky concept; it's been noted that if you have one foot in a bucket of ice and another in a bonfire, a statistician will tell you that, on average, the temperature is fine. Over the past quarter-century, political power has shifted from Democrats to Republicans, with striking results for the average distribution of wealth.

Since the election of Ronald Reagan the wealth of the nation has more than doubled. Per capita, Americans are now 70 percent richer than they were in 1979. Where have these several trillion dollars of new affluence gone?

For poor people, the answer is clear: Essentially none of this wealth has come their way. Adjusted for inflation, the tenth percentile of after-tax family income is almost exactly the same today as it was in 1979 - about $13,500 (note this means that 30 million Americans live on even less). For the middle class, the situation is only slightly different. In 1979, the average middle-class family had an after-tax income of $38,000; today that figure is about $43,700, meaning that over the past quarter-century the average American family has seen its income rise by about $200 per year.

For our wealthiest citizens, by contrast, 25 years of Republican rule have made these very much the best of times. During this period, the average after-tax income of the top 1 percent of Americans has risen an astonishing 111.3 percent, from $298,900 to $631,700 per year (again, all these figures are adjusted for inflation).

In other words, in absolute terms the poor are just as poor as they were a generation ago, while a middle-class family's annual share of the last quarter-century's worth of economic growth allows it to buy one extra tank of gas every three months. Meanwhile, in relative terms, both groups are far poorer: indeed, compared to the rich, most Americans are now only half as well-off as they were during the Carter presidency.

...more...

[54anickel]

74. European M&A eroding credit quality

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/944831a0-dac7-11da-aa09-0000779e2340.html

An increase in mergers and acquisition activity in Europe is putting corporate credit quality at risk particularly among the car parts, building materials, construction, chemicals, and metals and mining sectors, according to Fitch, the ratings agency.

A rapid increase in predominantly debt-funded deals is reflected by a strong increase in bond issuance, which – if it continued at the same pace – would lead to an all-time high for issuance this year, according to a report from Fitch on Wednesday.

“In view of the debt-funded characteristics of most M&A activity, the effect on credit profiles will on balance be negative in the short- to medium-term,” said Monica Insoll, head of Fitch’s Europe, Middle East and Africa industrials team.

The Fitch report augments similar warnings from credit strategists at several large investment banks. Neil McLeish at Morgan Stanley became the first to call the turn in the credit cycle in February, warning that shareholder interests were taking precedence in the boardroom.

more...

[TrogL]

86. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day:



Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Current TSE



Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2006-04-03 Monday, April 3 0.853388 USD
2006-04-04 Tuesday, April 4 0.857486 USD
2006-04-05 Wednesday, April 5 0.860659 USD
2006-04-06 Thursday, April 6 0.867152 USD
2006-04-07 Friday, April 7 0.872296 USD
2006-04-10 Monday, April 10 0.872144 USD
2006-04-11 Tuesday, April 11 0.872829 USD
2006-04-12 Wednesday, April 12 0.871156 USD
2006-04-13 Thursday, April 13 0.868508 USD
2006-04-14 Friday, April 14 0.868583 USD
2006-04-17 Monday, April 17 0.87321 USD
2006-04-18 Tuesday, April 18 0.87558 USD
2006-04-19 Wednesday, April 19 0.87974 USD
2006-04-20 Thursday, April 20 0.878272 USD
2006-04-21 Friday, April 21 0.879353 USD
2006-04-24 Monday, April 24 0.879275 USD
2006-04-25 Tuesday, April 25 0.883626 USD
2006-04-26 Wednesday, April 26 0.887233 USD
2006-04-27 Thursday, April 27 0.890076 USD
2006-04-28 Friday, April 28 0.892618 USD
2006-05-01 Monday, May 1 0.898473 USD
2006-05-02 Tuesday, May 2 0.903424 USD
2006-05-03 Wednesday, May 3 0.903179 USD


Current values

Last trade 0.9047 Change +0.0008 (+0.09%)
Previous Close 0.9037 Open 0.9017
Low 0.9008 High 0.9060


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this spring’s rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising, which signals that additional short-term gains are possible. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8928 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage or a lower opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

Judging from the other charts the greenback's on another slump, but the loonie appears to be holding its own against the Yen and Euro.

[54anickel]

87. 11:48 and bonds are split

Dow 11,460.47 +60.19 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,323.56 +19.59 (+0.85%)
S&P 500 1,313.93 +6.08 (+0.46%)
10-yr Bond 51.46 +0.02 (+0.04%)
30-yr Bond 52.28 -0.08 (-0.15%)
NYSE Volume 989,125,000
Nasdaq Volume 929,528,000


11:30 am : Market trying to take full advantage of another plunge in oil prices. Crude oil futures have slipped below $71 a barrel and are now down more than 2.0%. Even though investors won't view the pullback in oil as overwhelmingly bullish until its dips well below $70 a barrel, the fact that oil is selling off for a second straight day is providing some relief. Sure, Energy continues to pare its leading year-to-date gain of 16.6%; but leadership from more influential sectors like Industrials, Technology and Financial have been strong sources of market support. DJ30 +50.70 NASDAQ +16.13 SP500 +5.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1184/1590/842 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1071/1920/646 mln

11:00 am : Stocks are off their best levels as the influential Consumer Staples sector slips into negative territory. Wal-Mart (WMT 46.24 -0.45) reversing course, as investors consolidate some of the 3.7% gain in the stock since pre-announcing 6.8% April comps growth Monday, is acting as the biggest overhang on the sector. An analyst downgrade on Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 41.45 -1.87), which has finally taken some steam out of one of this year's biggest winners (+69%), and further consolidation in Procter & Gamble (PG 55.85 -0.37), are also offsetting a 14% increase in Q1 profits from CVS Corp (CVS 30.15 +0.15) and Costco's (COST 54.83 +0.87) strong comps. DJ30 +38.66 NASDAQ +14.14 SP500 +4.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1141/1583/688 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1031/1887/506 mln

10:30 am : Major averages continue to trade near session highs as buyers remain in control of the early action. Even though evidence that accelerating wage growth, as evidenced by a 2.5% rise in labor costs in this morning's preliminary read on Q1 productivity, may raise concerns that Fed tightening has further to go than expected, it appears sellers will have to wait for tomorrow's jobs data to dictate whether or not the economy is growing too fast.DJ30 +55.37 NASDAQ +18.18 SP500 +5.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 998/1617/532 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 965/1872/374 mln

[UpInArms]

93. Commentary: Don't underestimate inflation or the commodity bull

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B0F210185%2DBB4A%2D4A55%2DA6D2%2D621F78307284%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MPTrader) -- In his first testimony before Congress Thursday, new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to suggest a pause in future rate hikes following the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. How did the markets react to the "good" news? They proceeded to go up across the board -- suggesting that the Fed ought to do anything but stop hiking rates!

<snip>

Although Bernanke clarified his comments the following Monday, noting the Fed was only "pausing" to determine if more hikes were needed, the market's reaction suggested the Fed may have no choice but to continue to hike rates. Yields on the 10-year Bond climbed to nearly 5.20% on Wednesday (up from 4.25% just four months ago), reflecting just how nervous bond traders had become about incipient inflation coupled with suspicions about the vigilance of the new Fed chief.

A good part of the nervousness has to do with commodity prices, particularly gold and oil, which are showing few if any meaningful technical or fundamental signs of slowing down. Gold is pushing $700, a gain of 65 percent from its $425 price 12 months ago. Oil has gone to $75 from $50 a year ago, a 50 percent gain, and copper rallied 6% to $3.50 a pound this morning, from around 1.10 a pound, in the past year. See story: Metals Stocks

From a technical perspective, in order for a market to begin to top-out and then reverse after being in an intermediate- or long-term trend, it has to meet a force equal to or greater than the force that's driving the dominant trend direction in the first place. No such force is approaching either gold or oil at this point. Neither one is exhausted from a technical point of view, and neither one has fundamentals that argue for an impending reversal to where they were four or five years ago -- in serious oversupply.

<snip>

Of course, should the Fed seek to really cut liquidity -- the huge liquidity injected by the Greenspan Fed starting in 2000 to prove to investors that it is serious about combating incipient inflation (a main driver of these markets) -- through more aggressive rate hikes, these targets likely would be revised downward. And the market most vulnerable to Fed hikes, and a perceived forthcoming economic slowdown, could well be the stock market.

...more...

[54anickel]

106. Hmmm, compare that 4th paragraph snippet on technicals and fundamentals

in commodities to the statements regarding the stock market:

As gauged by the Dow, the stock market, as mentioned, is nearing its all-time high of 11,750. It appears that the Dow will at some point soon get very close to, or maybe even exceed, 11,750, but not by much, maybe only as high as 12,000, or a mere 5% move from where it is now.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which is also near five-year highs, has a measured target of 1340 to 1360.

From there, the indexes will be vulnerable technically to a serious correction, which would be exacerbated by suspicions about a more aggressive, restrictive Fed that will have to push rates higher, and perhaps for considerably longer, that anyone expects.

[UpInArms]

94. 12:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,448.06 +47.78 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,321.95 +17.98 (+0.78%)
S&P 500 1,312.51 +4.66 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 5.156 +0.12 (+0.23%)

NYSE Volume 1,087,301,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,015,344,000

12:00 pm : Market maintaining most of its gains midday as investors rally around strong April same-store sales across the board and another sell-off in oil prices.

Despite prices at the pump surging 13% last month, a later Easter holiday, rising incomes and warmer weather in April made for a very strong month for retailers. Discounter Costco (COST 54.99 +1.03) topped forecasts with a 7% rise in April comps, teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 62.75 +2.41) posted 17.0% year/year growth while children’s retailer Gymboree (GYMB 31.55 +0.48), a suggested Active Portfolio holding, blew away forecasts again with 19% year/year comps growth. Also suggesting that high gas prices still aren't slowing down the consumer were specialty apparel names like Talbots (TLB 25.11 +1.58) and Limited Brands (LTD 25.96 +1.72).

Among the eight economic sectors trading higher, Materials has turned in the best performance so far as a weaker dollar and concerns about inadequate supplies helps copper hit another record and lifts gold prices back toward 26-yr highs.

Financial has also shown relative strength, benefiting from multiple upgrades on Franklin Resources (BEN 90.57 +2.28) as the Treasury market sitting firmly in a holding pattern temporarily stalls continued interest-rate worries. Even though evidence that accelerating wage growth, as evidenced by a 2.5% rise in labor costs in this morning's preliminary read on Q1 productivity, may raise concerns that Fed tightening has further to go than expected, it appears traders are waiting for tomorrow's employment data to dictate whether or not the economy is growing too fast.

Energy, however, has extended yesterday’s consolidation efforts amid further deterioration in the price of crude. Crude oil futures have slipped below $71 a barrel and off more than 2.0%.
DJ30 +53.65 NASDAQ +18.94 SP500 +5.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 1152/1676 NYSE Dec/Adv 1082/1964

[nolabels]

97. So really then, the stock market is a good barometer after all.

After calculating the five or six percent it really gets devalued in a stagnant market and then factoring in the actual annual difference you can calculate the true inflation rate (looks to be about ten to eleven percent)in real terms.

[Sammy Pepys]

117. Explain further? n/t

...

[nolabels]

131. Time is money (to some) and when you are busy doing nothing.......

then that something that isn't getting done really gets valuable. Many would like to see how economics can be logical and travel a linear path, but mostly, true business travels in groups of paradox

Inflation - the mechanics of inflation: the great government swindle and how it works is one of a series of documents about economics and money at abelard.org.
http://www.abelard.org/inflation.htm


CyclePro

Fundamental and Technical Market Analysis

ForStock Indexes and Commodities

CyclePro U.S. Stock Market Outlook

Updated At Irregular Intervals

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm

[54anickel]

113. Security Alert Issued to Mass Transit (Who's in trouble now?)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=1920740

WASHINGTON May 3, 2006 (AP)— U.S. mass transit systems should remain alert against possible terror attacks, the Homeland Security Department said in a new warning that highlighted suspicious activity at unnamed European subway stations last fall.

Homeland Security spokesman Russ Knocke said Wednesday there is no specific or credible intelligence to indicate U.S. transit systems are being targeted, and he described the notice, sent Tuesday, as a routine reminder for transit authority operators, state security advisers and police to remain on guard.

In Chicago, transit authority spokeswoman Sheila Gregory said the nation's second largest transit system had not received any information or warning from Homeland Security regarding suspicious activity at European subway stations.

Joe Pesaturo, a spokesman for the Boston area transit authority, said the agency is already on alert. "We have received the memo and we are continuing to operate under the procedures we have in place for the elevated threat level," he said.


snip>

It added: "DHS has no credible or specific intelligence regarding active plots targeting U.S. mass transit systems."

Knocke said Homeland Security has no immediate plans to raise the nation's terror threat alert level. It was not immediately clear why the arrests months ago prompted the new notice.

more...

[UpInArms]

115. How Safe is The Big Dig?U.S. arrests 6 for Boston "Big Dig" concrete fraud

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-05-04T170822Z_01_N04933_RTRIDST_0_CRIME-HIGHWAY.XML

BOSTON, May 4 (Reuters) - Six men who supplied concrete to Boston's infamous "Big Dig" road project were arrested on Thursday for delivering sub-standard materials to the biggest public works endeavor in U.S. history, federal officials said.

<snip>

Aggregate Industries, a unit of Swiss company Holcim Ltd. (HOLN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) and one of the world's largest cement makers, was the biggest supplier of cement used in building the 7.8 mile (12.6-km) street below downtown Boston.

<snip>

State and federal officials last year launched a probe into the matter after being tipped off by a whistle blower. When state police raided company offices, they found that managers had fraudulently reissued paperwork for concrete that had been rejected elsewhere at the site.

Officials said the concrete was rejected because it did not meet the strength specifications spelled out in the state's contract.

<snip>

Although officials acknowledged last year that faulty concrete was used, they also reassured travelers the tunnel, which had been previously plagued by leaks, was safe.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

116. Inside The RNC's Union Outreach

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/05/inside_the_rncs.html

snip>

Republican strategists have long seen untapped potential in labor unions. But the WH, led by DCoS Karl Rove has generally frowned upon direct outreach. As WH pol. dir, though, Mehlman was always willing to talk to unions and Taylor has similarly kept her door open. Still, only the abjectly neutral unions have had access to key policymakers at 1600 Penn Ave, creating what one sympathetic labor official called a "very narrow friendship."

A GOP official said "Ken's message at the meeting was, 'We're going to hold the House and Senate. There are a lot of foks who you have reasons to support in our party. And because Republicans have been supportive on your issues, we want you to support the party.'" The GOPers and unions assessed races in which their interest coincided. These included OH's marquee Senate contest, which has split labor. (The AFL-CIO and Change to Win efforts will generally help Democrats, while several individual unions, like the firefighters, will marshal support for Sen. Mike DeWine). Another was the re-election of embattled Rep. Bob Ney. A member of the transportation cmte, Ney retains the loyalty of many building trade unions. Others: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (RI) and Rep's Mike Fitzpatrick (PA), Jim Gerlach (PA) and Rob Simmons (CT).

Another GOPer pointed out that all of the candidates the unions were asked to support had a history of being supportive of labor. This source said that from his perspective, the union-GOP "Cold War is over," so now "help us help you." But the source also seemed to invoke a Cold War metaphor: "Trust but verify." They'll be watching, said this GOPer, to see if the unions hang with those who had hung with them and are facing tough races this cycle. The message: "If you're not with this time than you're dead forever."
According to several sources, Mehlman asked participating unions to support, by dint of contributions, the RNC, the NRCC and the NRSC. They also hinted that donations to the RGA and the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership would be most appreciated.

In exchange for the "ask," the Republicans promised nothing but continued friendship. Several union officials briefed on the meeting hope the less antagonistic approach by Republicans predicts a future of, say, regular labor meetings with OMB officials and with White House domestic policy aides who have the ear of new chief of staff Joshua Bolten. Others say they want heads up when executive branch decisions might hurt their members' interests.

more...

[UpInArms]

123. 3:33 EST heading for the close with joyful feet

Dow 11,443.60 +43.32 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,324.56 +20.59 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 1,312.72 +4.87 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 5.150 +0.06 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,738,117,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,571,345,000

3:00 pm : Market is off its bets levels of the afternoon but continues to sport broad-based gains amid spirited leadership from several leading blue chips. On the Dow, AA, BA, DIS, GE, HON, HPQ and MSFT continue to lead the way with gains of more than 1.0%. AIG briefly slipping into negative territory and PFE paring nearly half of its gains over the last 30 minutes have recently contributed to the price-weighted index's slight pullback to afternoon lows. DJ30 +36.74 NASDAQ +20.18 SP500 +3.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1176/1802/1.65 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1227/1974/1.33 bln

2:30 pm : Holding steady at sharply higher levels as buyers as the indices retain the bulk of their earlier gains. Energy paring some of its intraday losses has provided some recent relief. The semiconductor group retracing earlier highs and the Industrials sector now trading at its best levels of the day (+1.2%) are also keeping sellers on the sidelines. Seven of the Industrials sector's top ten components (e.g. GE, UPS, TYC, BA, HON, CAT and FDX) are posting gains of more than 1.0%. In fact, only six of the sector's 53 components aren't trading higher.DJ30 +52.45 DJTA +3.4% NASDAQ +21.25 SOX +1.4% SP500 +5.31 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1168/1801/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1235/1931/1.24 bln

[ozymandius]

129. at the close

Dow 11,438.86 +38.58 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,323.90 +19.93 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,312.25 +4.40 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 51.50 +0.06 (+0.12%)
NYSE Volume 2,388,575,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,098,912,000

4:20 pm : The major averages bounced back nicely in the wake of Wednesday's modest consolidation efforts, this time embracing a sell-off in oil prices and getting some validation about the strength of the consumer amid solid April same-store sales growth across the board.

Yesterday gasoline futures lost 4.0% while crude oil futures lost 3.0% after the EIA showed that demand for gasoline was flat last week as inventories rose for the first time in more than two months; but the market failed to take advantage. Today, however, follow-through selling sparked by yesterday's unexpected build in gas supplies continued to weigh on prices across the energy complex, alleviating some worries about higher energy bills crimping discretionary spending.

Speaking of consumption, even in the face of a 13% surge in prices at the pump last month, retailers in April posted a 6.5% increase in same-store sales as Easter came later, incomes were higher and the weather was warmer. That was the strongest showing since May 2004 according to Lazard. Notable names included Costco (COST 55.53 +1.57), which topped forecasts with a 7% rise in April comps, teen retailers American Eagle (AEOS 33.61 +1.08) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 63.26 +2.92), which posted gains of 19.0% and 17.0%, respectively, and Gymboree (GYMB 32.87 +1.80), a suggested Active Portfolio holding which blew away forecasts again with 19% year/year comps growth. Coupled with plummeting oil prices, investors lifted virtually every industry into positive territory as the Dow Industrials enjoyed its best close in six years and came within 280 points away from an all-time high.

The Dow Transports fared even better, recording their biggest one-day rally since July 2005 and closing at historic levels. Plunging energy prices and a 70% rise in Q1 profits at Expeditors International (EXPD 103.80 +16.04) were contributing factors that also helped the Industrials sector turn in the day's best performance. A fivefold surge in Q2 profits at Tyco International (TYC 27.92 +0.98) provided additional sector support and helped keep the S&P 500 on pace for an 11th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth.

Among the other eight economic sectors posting gains, Materials extended its 12% year-to-date performance as a weaker dollar and concerns about inadequate supplies helped copper futures hit another record high and lifted gold prices back to their best levels since 1980. Technology also provided some notable leadership to the upside, fueled by follow-through buying in semiconductor and a rebound in Microsoft (MSFT 23.44 +0.27) spurred by reports of a new targeted advertising offensive against Google (GOOG 394.75 +0.58). Chip stocks got a boost from a 2.7% surge in Applied Materials (AMAT 18.55 +0.49) Wall Street believes its agreement to acquire Applied Films (AFCO 28.03 +5.06) complements AMAT's existing business and presents new growth opportunities.

Financial also showed relative strength, benefiting from multiple upgrades on Franklin Resources (BEN 90.40 +1.73) as the Treasury market sat firmly in a holding pattern, temporarily stalling continued interest-rate worries that have been at the heart of the market's inability to sustain a convincing advance. Even though evidence that accelerating wage growth, supported by a 2.5% rise in labor costs in this morning's preliminary read on Q1 productivity, may raise concerns that Fed tightening has further to go than expected, bond traders waited for tomorrow's employment data to dictate whether or not the economy is growing too fast.

Consumer Staples eked out a small gain as Whole Foods Market (WFMI 70.42 +8.27) boosting its 2006 sales guidance after posting strong earnings, Costco's strong comps, and record results from CVS Corp. (CVS 30.32 +0.32) helped offset an analyst downgrade on Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 40.00 -3.32) which prompted investors to lock in some of the stock's 69% year-to-date gain as one of this year's biggest winners. Energy, however, extended yesterday's consolidation efforts amid further deterioration in the price of crude and was the only sector that didn't participate in Thursday's recovery effort. BTK +1.2% DJ30 +38.58 DJTA +3.3% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +19.93 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.9% SOX +1.3% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +4.40 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1129/1887/2.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1215/2014/1.74 bln

[AX10]

130. Notice that only the Dow Jones is up since * took over.

The other indexes are either flat or down.