Ciro Rodriguez has lost to Henry Cuellar in the Dem TX-28 primary

[More Than A Feeling]

"It's over. The early voting totals were terrible. Cuellar pulled 12,772 (57.98%) of the early vote. Ciro got 7,579 (34.40%), and Morales got 1,678 (7.62%). This thing was lost before today even began."

www.mydd.com

Update: Yes, yes, allegation of fraud, and yes, the sec/state's website isn't updated yet, but mydd.com has been liveblogging the whole thing, and they are a pretty credible source. If the situation changes, then of course I or someone else will report that, too.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Calling FRAUD already

there were a couple of posts on it, Especially the one in Election Reform. Check it out.

[Mithras61]

2. You might want to check the vote totals...

at the TX Sec'y of State's election results page here: http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/dem1race5.htm

With 69% of precincts reporting,

Ciro Rodriguez: 15,408 (45%)
Henry Cuellar: 16,705 (49%)

If neither one gets 50.1%, it goes into a run-off, and Victor Morales may be able to pull just enough to force it...

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Also, couple of irregular stuff..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x416015



With 77% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 11,269 (56.40%), Cuellar: 7,304 (36.55%), Morales: 1,408 (7.05%). Projection: Cuellar 53.28%. Not a single word from Webb County yet.

--

First and foremost, How did Ciro get 7,579 votes, when the last reported 77% of the non-Webb county votes, Ciro gets 11,269?

[Mithras61]

4. I don't think this race is over by a long way yet...

There are multiple counties with less than 5% of precincts reporting and only showing early voting totals or maybe 1% of precincts reporting...

[Mithras61]

5. Don't you think it's a bit curious that...

a web site registered to an L.A. P.O.Box should have more up-to-the-minute information than the TX Secretary of State's office (which reports the official returns and is updated every 10 minutes)?

[Teaser]

6. May not be fraud but may be Republican Crossover votes

There was a large (and I mean HUGE) number of early votes for Cuellar in his home county. About half of voters voted early. A good chunk of them might be Republican voters, which is allowed in an open primary.

[Mithras61]

8. Fascinating that the one county that shows over 8,000 votes for Cuellar...

is still showing 0 of 30 precincts reporting for the voting today (Webb County only showing early vote totals), and Atoscosa showing only 1 of 24 precincts reporting with 804 total votes shown for both early voting and today (same number with one precinct as with 0 precincts).

[Teaser]

11. Rumor is...

all votes were reported as early votes.


That's one rumor. the other is the Republican theory.

[Mithras61]

17. So all precincts in Laredo...

only had early voting votes, and also that all outlying areas were only early votes as well? Sounds suspicious and unlikely to me (but then again, I'm suspicious about anything that smacks of the unusual these days). In my precinct we had good turnout in the early voting, and better than usual turnout today as well (nearly twice the normal number for an off-year election).

[Teaser]

24. No...

the rumor is that all the votes, early and today's totals, were reported as early votes. A mistake. So there are no more votes than those reported so far.

[Mithras61]

26. I see...

I misundestood what you were saying. That seems more reasonable, although I can't figure out that huge difference in votes there (8145 vs 789 - ~87% for someone who isn't liked that well seems pretty lopsided).

[Teaser]

29. Well,

I'm sure some ballot stuffing occurred (it's S. Texas, after all). And this is Cuellars home court, and they like him for that reason alone.

[Mithras61]

31. and as was pointed out elsewhere...

there aren't many 'puke races that will have any effect, so this is pretty much the only game in town, too...

[Tom Joad]

7. Who was backing Cuellar? I suppose the Dem establishment.

I suspect they made no attemt to help Ciro. Even if he is the one who actually opposes bush policies. The Dem establishment don't care about values. it is about market share.

[last_texas_dem]

9. I think many prominents Dems do support Ciro

In this specific instance, I don't think the problem is with the Democratic establishment; I recall several prominent Dems coming out in support of their former colleague in the House, Ciro. Cuellar's best-known backers tended to be Republican-supporting groups like the Club for Growth. I think Cuellar's support has more to do with Democrats from one part of the district wanting a Representative from their area than from support of Cuellar's DINO views. If Cuellar wins I believe it will be more due to a group of voters wanting to preserve clout for their region and less to do with an endorsement of Bush-lite policies.

[okasha]

15. Cuellar brings home the pork.

He's been instrumental in a lot of funding for Webb County/Laredo projects, including "earmark" grants.

[countmyvote4real]

21. I can understand that if they have some oil clout, however sad.

If they don't, but think they do; that's really sad AND stupid.

[Teaser]

12. You're quite wrong. They hate Cuellar.

He's not even allowed to caucus with the Dems.

[Tom Joad]

16. ok. So he is shuned. unlike joe the lie man

[Teaser]

20. This dude is far worse the Lieberman

he doesn't even pretend to be a Democrat. Just couldn't beat a prospective opponent in the Repub primary so decided to run under our banner.

[QC]

10. Cuellar is only up by about 1200 votes

with 71 precincts still to report. It's too early to give up.

[last_texas_dem]

14. Yes

Those early vote reports from Webb County tilted the balance so much that it was scary, but the last several precincts that have been coming in seem to be keeping the balance about the same. I may be being too optimistic, but I'm hoping Rodriguez and Morales combined can keep Cuellar from breaking 50%+1.

[QC]

22. Yeah, I'm hoping for a runoff. n/t

[regnaD kciN]

13. Considering how much the blogosphere was pushing for Ciro...

...can this result be taken as a sign of the impotence of online activism (much like Dean's collapse in the 2004 primaries)? :-(

[LiberalInGeorgia2005]

18. Maybe, maybe not

Please be active in politics outside, doing it on a computer when the vast majority of Americans don't read political sites doesn't change much!

[okasha]

23. No.

The blogosphere probably had next to zero influence on this race, one way or the other. Most S. Texas voters aren't likely to be paying the slightest attention to it. Much more likely is a large Republican crossover. The fact is, a Repug can't be elected dogcatcher in Webb County, and the Democratic primary determines who's going to be County Judge, County Commissioner, Mayor of Laredo, District Court Judge, etc.. So many Republicans vote in this primary rather than their own. Add to that the fact that this year there's an eye-gouging, hair-pulling four-way brawl for County Judge, and an equally nasty fight over one of the Commissioner's seats, and you get a larger than usual turnout to begin with, and a larger proportion of those likely to be R's.

[aquart]

35. Would you like that to be true?

Or would you simply like us to believe that it is true?

[Texacrat]

19. The conspiracy theorists are out again

:eyes:

[Jack_DeLeon]

25. Interesting...

I live in the next district over, but I've heard alot about this race.

[countmyvote4real]

28. Like? (you've heard what?)

[Jack_DeLeon]

33. Just all the threads on the Texas forum here...

My local elections didnt really have much interesting going on.

[Bridget Burke]

40. I live in Houston....

But I've heard about the race.

[cantstandbush]

27. Texas deserves the crooks they voted for but the country doesn't. n/t

[countmyvote4real]

30. Amen to that. I so much wish TX still belonged to Mexico.

IF it ever did. I don't honestly know at the moment and am too lazy to google before my knee jerk post. I don't have a problem with Mexico. My problem is with Texas as it is gerrymandered today.

[bluestateguy]

32. This race is still up in the air

and until every last vote is counted I don't want to hear anything else.

[Jack_DeLeon]

34. Runoff

that is what I'm thinking will happen.

[Mithras61]

36. It's starting to look that way...

It appears Morales has pulled 6.8% of the vote, leaving Rodriguez with 44.95% and Cuellar with 47.7%. Looks like no one has a majority of 50% +1, so we'll probably have a runoff (of course, there's still 5% or precincts not reporting).

[last_texas_dem]

37. One interesting thing

Alright, so this may turn out to be wrong and I'm not trying to wrongly get anyone's hopes up, but there is a discussion going on on DailyKos ( http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/8/03518/76179 ) suggesting that the Webb county "early votes" may in fact be the totals for all of Webb County, early votes and Election Day votes. If so, there is a good chance that the small number of uncounted votes remaining would not be enough to push Cuellar over 50%, meaning that he and Ciro will go into a runoff. (This is minus any last minute shenanigans in his home county, of course...)

So really, I don't know, those supposedly early vote only totals coming out of Webb did seem like a pretty large batch, even considering a large number of Repugs could have decided to vote because of a lack of a competitive primary on their side. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens here... A runoff would be great news. I'd assume that Morales supporters would be more likely to support Rodriguez than Cuellar. But at the same time, I know a runoff would be just as much, if not more, of a nail-biter as this race has been.

[annabanana]

38. kick. . . . . . . . . n/t

[Jack_DeLeon]

39. It appears that Cuellar did win afterall, no runoff.

http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/06pridem.htm#2

I'm seeing the following

Henry Cuellar 23,546 52.73%

Ciro D. Rodriguez 18,217 40.79%

274 of 276 Precincts

[More Than A Feeling]

42. In retrospect, I should have altered the title

to "MyDD.com claims Ciro lost". My fault. Chalk it up to impulsiveness.

[onehandle]

41. Folks, it's Texas. What did you expect?

Save America. Give Texas back to Mexico.

[RSchewe]

43. You gotta love Texas politics.... they have apparently "open primaries."

Republicans voting in Democratic elections?

MyDD :: Super Late Night Thread

(snip)

I'd like to point out that Texas apparently has an open primary system, where Republicans can actually vote in a Democratic primary, and vice versa. Given this, Ciro almost certainly won the day among registered Democrats, and at the very least would have forced a runoff in a closed primary. As someone who has always been an advocate of clsoed primaries, I submit this election as Exhibit A. As disgusting as it sounds, if Cuellar wins the Democratic primary without a run-off, it will be because of the Republican vote. I love it when Republicans select the Demcoratic nominee! Someone please tell me again why we should have open primaries.

more...

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/3/8/23053/73351


Forget reform, elections in this country need to be destroyed and started from scratch.

By the way, those who are condascending to people who are suspicious about the "touch screen problems" and calling them "conpiracy theorists" can stick it.

Why do these problems always happen now at the end and end up tilting the outcome the other way in the end of the count? I do suspect a conspiracy and it seems to be less and less a theory after each election having these "problems" consistently manifest themselves election after election.

I don't remember hearing about this nonsense before the time of these machines.