STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 23 December

[ozymandius]

Friday December 23, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 30 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1828 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1527 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1489
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 22, 2005

Dow... 10,889.44 +55.71 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq... 2,246.49 +14.83 (+0.66%)
S&P 500... 1,268.12 +5.33 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.43% -0.05 (-1.18%)
Gold future... 505.00 +9.70 (+1.92%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

MARKET NOW HOME ALONE
Predictions for 2005 and 2006

Holiday season volume has dried up, and many finance professionals will be busy spending their hefty bonuses for the remainder of the year. The trading action is going to be dominated by the public. The outcome feels clear to me – most trading days remaining in ’05 will resemble today’s. The market will be lightly up through the end of the year; just enough to keep the public interested and buying and this will occur with a media backdrop of positive predictions for the economy and the stock market through 2006. Then, with negative seasonality due to kick in right after the New Year, I’m looking for record high trading volumes as the “big bid” enters the market in at attempt to again prop things up. This will provide the catalyst for another round of buying as the market will respond to the fact that the market didn’t fall in the face of expected negative seasonality. The dominant psychology for the first quarter of 2006 as stated in plain language, “If the market will not drop, then why not buy?” Up we will go through January and February. As good 2005 4th quarter earnings releases are brought forth, earnings after items and one time events will be considered excellent and the stock market should rally through the 1st quarter of 2006. Numerous companies, including many retailers will “beat” expectations and “up” guidance and this will be the stuff of a powerful market rally.

Short term rates will respond to most media predictions of one or two more short term interest rate hikes. The longer bond will respond positively and the yield curve will invert. As in 2000, the esteemed professional and academic market apologists will preach to the public that this isn’t your big sister’s inverted yield curve and there is nothing to worry about. This story will be taken as fact by the public, hook, line, and sinker. The talk of a housing bubble will be lessened and emotions will cool off. Homebuilder stocks and home buying will respond to the positive long bond as the consumer debt bubble will spin yet again.

-cut-

Gasoline will rise to $5.00 a gallon, and news commentators will sing the praises of a New Economy” that is not dependent upon low priced fuel. The rise in fuel will be attributed to “the speculators”. The Dow Transportation Index will rise to 6000 and the dividend will be reduced to less than 0.5%. (Not a word about the Transportation index and speculators will be uttered.)

-cut-

The stock market will crash in the 3rd quarter of 2006.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

4. HA! Love it! Never under estimate the power of stupidity in the markets!

[AnneD]

62. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I have never understood why some people build their houses on sand, then cry when they have foundation problems. We are mucking around the quicksand and there are going to be 'surprised' economist that will be ensnared.
:loveya: I stand in awe of the talent let alone all the dead on accurate info you guys scope out. I think we will have some interesting days ahead and I wouldn't dream of doing this without you.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanuka, Joyous Kwanzaa, to you all. Never loose sight of what is truly valuable...time spent with your crazy family that is always there for you and true old friends that make you laugh. Remember the less fortunate and never pass up the chance to help. And never ever forget the power of one, every great waterfall starts with one small drop of water.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Durable Orders Nov
Briefing Forecast 1.5%
Market Expects 1.1%
Prior 3.4%

9:45 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Dec
Briefing Forecast 88.7
Market Expects 89.0
Prior 88.7

10:00 AM New Home Sales Nov
Briefing Forecast 1290K
Market Expects 1300K
Prior 1424K

[UpInArms]

13. Durable Goods numbers, excluding aircraft, fell 2%

8:30am 12/23/05 U.S. OCT. DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO RISE 3.0% VS 3.7% PREV

8:30am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.5%

8:30am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 0.2%

8:30am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS RISE LARGEST SINCE MAY

8:30am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 4.4% VS RISE 1.5% FORECAST

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38709.3544801736-855470403&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by demand for transportation equipment, orders for new U.S.-made durable goods jumped 4.4% in November. The increase was much larger than forecast. Economists were expecting orders to rise 1.5%. However, excluding transportation orders, durable good orders fell 0.6% in November, the third straight monthly drop. Orders for core capital goods equipment fell 2.0% in November. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.2% in November after a 1.2% gain in October.

:wtf:

Shipments fall, orders are up and inventories rise - and it's all in the "transportation equipment"?

editing to add the following:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T134950Z_01_NAT001931_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-DURABLES-URGENT.XML

excerpt:

Overall, durable goods orders rose 4.4 percent in November, easily exceeding economists' expectations of 1.0 percent growth and topping October's downwardly revised 3.0 percent growth. The number reflected soaring orders for commercial aircraft.

But non-defense capital orders excluding aircraft, considered a reliable measure of business investment, dropped 2 percent in November versus October's downwardly revised 1.2 percent growth.

Something's confusing here - will see if I can find more info.

[Paulie]

37. Probably Boeing orders from the air show a month or so ago

They had hundreds of orders worth several billion $ as I recall.

[UpInArms]

31. UMich improves

9:47am 12/23/05 UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX RISES TO 91.5

US consumer sentiment improves further in December

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T145104Z_01_N23337939_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment ended
stronger in December and better than analysts' expectations,
bolstered by falling energy prices, a report showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan's final December index of
consumer sentiment rose to 91.5 from November's final reading
of 81.6, and a preliminary reading of 85.5 in early December,
according to sources who saw the subscription-only report.

Wall Street economists polled by Reuters on average had
predicted the December reading to finish at 89.0.

The survey's expectations gauge rose to 80.2 in late
December from 69.6 in late November, and 77.3 in early
December.

The index of current conditions climbed to 109.1 from 100.2
at the end of November and 106.6 earlier this month.

...more...

Who did they survey, the Goldman Sacs CEO?

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. Nov. new home sales down 11.3% to 1.25 mln units (Popping Sounds)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38709.4168503472-855479693&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new homes in the United States fell 11.3% in November after surging to a record in October, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted 1.245 million units from October's 1.404 million pace, originally reported as 1.42 million. Sales jumped 11.4% in October. Sales in November were up 6% from a year earlier. Economists expected sales to fall to 1.31 million in November. Inventories of homes on the market rose 3.3% to a record 503,000, representing a 4.9-month supply at the November sales pace. This is the largest monthly supply since December 1996. The median price of a new sold home increased 0.3% in the past year.

10:00am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES PRICE UP 0.3% Y-0-Y TO $225K

10:00am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. NEW HOME 4.9 MONTH SUPPLY, HIGHEST SINCE '96

10:00am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. NEW HOME INVENTORY UP 3.3% TO RECORD 503,000

10:00am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES WELL BELOW 1.31 MLN FORECAST

10:00am 12/23/05 U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES DOWN 11.3% TO 1.25 MLN UNITS

[ozymandius]

3. Fed's Lacker says rate fine-tuning may be ongoing

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said on Thursday the U.S. economy appeared on track for a sustained expansion, but cautioned the Fed might need to fine-tune interest rates over time.

-cut-

In remarks to reporters afterward, Lacker -- who next year joins the ranks of Fed officials who vote on interest rates -- said a change in the central bank's post-meeting statement last week could be seen as a signal the rate-hike cycle was drawing to a close.

"It is reasonable to interpret that as consistent with us being closer to that range -- far closer -- than before," he said when asked if the decision to drop a description of policy as "accommodative" suggested the end was near.

But he said even when the tightening cycle draws to a close, further adjustments might be needed to keep the economy on an even keel.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Alternative maximum foot dragging

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

The season for celebration is nearly upon us. After all, Congress is preparing for recess, and soon our representatives will flee the capital, unable to fund any more bridges to tiny Alaskan islands, or finagle any of 6,375 similar endeavors spelled out in the transportation bill, or in any other bill for that matter. Soon, it will be the most wonderful of seasons, and Congressmen will have only the lobbyists to shake down as they enter the New Year. It is truly a time to sing “Hallelujah.”

At least, most years it is. But this year, we might want to give Congress another week, even at the risk they authorize a series of snow sheds for Death Valley. That’s because it looks like Congress will leave town with the Alternative Minimum Tax still on the books, which left alone, will spread like a flu virus in summer camp. That is, it will eventually get to everyone.

You’ve got to hand it to Congress; the Alternative Minimum Tax is a cleverly named piece of legislation. However, a more accurate name would have been “The Other Higher Tax” or “The Not So Fast You Owe Even More Tax.” That’s because the AMT is a second take on an individual’s income tax calculation. And if the taxes come out higher under this alternate scenario, then that’s the way the deduction crumbles. Also clever – just like higher property taxes, increases in the AMT are conveniently absent from the CPI.

For years, only rich people like lawyers and professional athletes had to worry about these alternate tax calculations. The tax was mainly designed to keep rich people with a smorgasbord of deductions from getting off without paying anything. But because the AMT was never indexed for inflation (surely an oversight), the tax is trickling down into the upper middle and middle classes.

more...

[AnneD]

64. I want to make a bumper sticker that reads...

So how's this Bush/GOP economy working for you? What do you think. It should get people thinking around the 2Q.

[54anickel]

6. New CBO Report Shows Bleak Fiscal Forecast

http://www.commondreams.org/news2005/1222-05.htm

WASHINGTON - December 22 - A new report from the Congressional Budget Office paints a bleak picture of the nation’s fiscal health. The CBO’s biennial Long-Term Budget Outlook report, released on December 15, shows that under any realistic forecast of federal spending and tax collection trends, the nation faces budget deficits—and growing federal debt—as far as the eye can see.

The CBO report looks at six different scenarios for long-term trends in federal spending and revenues, which include two different tax scenarios and three different spending scenarios. The scenarios broadly reflect the possible outcomes from the as-yet-unmade choices facing Congress: whether to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, whether to continue higher defense spending on the war on terrorism, and whether to contain recent rapid growth in health care spending.

snip>

“The CBO report makes it clear that the fiscal path charted by the Republican leadership is simply unsustainable in the long run,” said CTJ director Robert S. McIntyre. “The fact that the only option for long-term fiscal balance described in the CBO report would require both tax hikes and spending cuts far beyond anything proposed by the current leadership is a testament to the irresponsible path on which our budget has been led for the past five years.” The report firmly rejects the notion that our ongoing budget deficits can be reduced through economic growth due to current and future tax cuts. In a December 15 speech announcing the report’s release, CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin asserted that it’s “not possible” that tax-cut-induced economic stimulus could “grow your way out of this problem.”

“The CBO’s new forecasts are hardly surprising, since they show a continuation of the same irresponsible deficit-financing trend we’ve seen throughout this decade,” said McIntyre. “It would be a welcome surprise, however, if our leaders were to take heed of the CBO’s dire forecast and enact a responsible deficit-reduction package that puts our nation on a firmer fiscal footing.”

more...

[54anickel]

7. HEDGE HIGHFLIER CLIPPED BY SEC

http://www.nypost.com/business/59256.htm

December 22, 2005 -- A hedge fund whiz kid who bragged publicly that his fund's sky-high returns let him fly around in private jets and buy a new Lamborghini was in fact running a classic Ponzi scheme, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged yesterday.
Regulators froze the personal assets of Bret Grebow, a trader at HMC International LLC, a Montvale, N.J.-based hedge fund.

Grebow and the fund's portfolio manager, Robert Massimi, were accused of "ongoing fraud" that began in 2001 and ran for more than four years, according to the rare emergency action filing.

In February 2004, Grebow featured prominently in a Wall Street Journal article describing the return of "high living" on Wall Street.

more...

[EuroObserver]

11. Bright lights, big city... n/t

[54anickel]

8. Transit strike reflects wider pension concerns

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10565048/

New York City's bitter three-day transit strike is over, but the two sides remain at odds over an issue that increasingly is being faced by millions of workers in a broad range of industries: pension security.

“It’s a very common situation with a unique dimension,” said Harley Shaiken, a labor economist and professor at the University of California at Berkeley. “The common part of it is that millions of workers are very apprehensive and deeply disturbed and often very angry about what is happening to their pensions.”

Transit union leaders ordered workers to return to work Thursday as talks aimed at seeking a permanent settlement continued with pensions still a central issue.

Pensions and associated health-care costs for retired workers also are a principal factor in this year’s landmark bankruptcy of auto-parts maker Delphi, financial problems at General Motors and the turmoil that has sent eight airlines into bankruptcy protection.

“It is not at all surprising to me that we would see a powerful union taking a stand on pensions,” said Jared Bernstein, senior economist with the labor-affiliated Economic Policy Institute.

more...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

9. Happy Holidays Ozy, UIA & Nickel

Thanks for all you do to keep us informed.

[ozymandius]

25. Thank you.

May this season bring you peace.

Ozy

[UpInArms]

26. Happy Holidays to you OrangeCountyDemocrat!

[54anickel]

38. Thank you OrangeCountyDemocrat. Happy Holidays to you too.

My wish this year is that our representatives from both sides of the aisle make good use of their time off this year for some serious soul searching. May they make a New Year's resolution to do their jobs and represent the people. Maybe if the general public would just give them a little push.....I know, it's a lot to ask - but one can dream.

Happy Holidays to all. :hi:

[stop the bleeding]

10. Morning everyone and Happy Holidays/Fitzmas like the cartoon of O'liely

you're a mean one Mr. Grinch!

[EuroObserver]

12. Tokyo: Sweet spot?

AN ACQUAINTANCE of Buttonwood’s, an economist at a great investment house, is just back from a round-the-world road show to charm clients about Japan. Everywhere he went, he played to packed houses: there is no doubt that Japan is now the big investment story. Yet interest in Japan among fund managers is not always matched by familiarity. Even this travelling economist found himself briefly lost for words when one manager in, let us say, Milwaukee raised his hand to say that, as a young card, he had once greatly enjoyed driving a thing called a Datsun about town, a delightful little car if rather prone to rust. What, the manager asked, did the economist think now about a punt on the company?

Now, the currencies in which Buttonwood deals are scepticism, a contrarian streak and a sense of dark foreboding about the consequences of human folly. So when it has escaped a potential guardian of your retirement pot and mine that the Datsun badge last adorned a vehicle in 1980; that Nissan, the parent company, subsequently slid into alarming decline until it was rescued by Renault; and that what happened next is one of the great turnarounds in business history: then you might think it is time to bring the curtain down on the sizzling story that is Japan’s stockmarket this year (chart 1). After all, while this gentle man dreams of his old Datsun, the annual bonuses at the big investment banks’ Tokyo branches have already been calculated, and the new Testarossas already ordered—and rare indeed is it that equity markets can sizzle two years in a row as Japan’s has done in 2005, when it rose by two-fifths.
Advertisement

Signs of froth in the Japan market are there for all to see. Heavens, even the Tokyo Stock Exchange, after a decade of torpor, is overwhelmed by the volumes now being sent through its systems. But can it not happen that sometimes, just sometimes, the contrarians are wrong and the consensus right? At any rate, do not take as an excess of seasonal spirit the prediction by this Asian incarnation of Buttonwood that for the next year or four Japan will be the happiest place to prosper in as far as the asset markets of the world are concerned—and that even whatever goes on in China will prove, from an investor’s point of view, to be a mere distraction.

This columnist’s premises are the following. First, the world’s second-biggest economy has started—but only started—on the path out of the morass formed by a decade of deflation. As the recovery builds speed, it is likely to be sustained by a virtuous circle of forces.

.../more: http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5327867&no_jw_tran=1&tranMode=none

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 90.75 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

Dollar Enters Holiday Mode

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/5711_dollar_enters_holiday.html

EUR/USD – Euro bulls managed to keep the 1.1800 figure after the pair found support created by the combination of the 20-day, 50-day SMA’s and the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2588-1.1639 USD rally. As greenback traders once again push the pair lower, a further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head below the 1.1800 figure and target the single currency bids around 1.1776, a level established by December 12 daily low. A sustained downside momentum will most likely see the EUR/USD head lower and target 1.1639, a level marked by the 2005 Low, breaking of which will most likely see the dollar traders set their sights on the psychologically important 1.1500 handle, a level defended by the single currency bids around 1.1546, an October 17 2003 daily low. Indicators are favoring the euro longs with both positive momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen bulls managed to push back the dollar bulls after they failed to break above 117.37, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.16-141.46 USD rally, and is further reinforced by the 50-day SMA at 117.83. As dollar longs continue to bid up the pair, the next move to the upside will most likely see the greenback traders extend their gains above the 118.00 figure and take out the yen defenses around 118.21, a level established by the November 23 daily low and is reinforced by the 20-day SMA. A sustained upside momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the USD/JPY head higher and aim for the offers above the psychologically important 120.00 handle at 120.46, a level marked by the December 13 daily high. Indicators are diverging with negative momentum indicator below the zero line while positive MACD is sloping downward toward the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 35.38, signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Dollar turns lower as focus on weaker economic data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38709.4480235532-855484317&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar turned marginally lower against its chief rivals as market focus keyed on the negative aspects of a trio of U.S. economic reports Friday. The latest report, one on new-home sales, showed a fall in November from record highs in October. Earlier, consumer sentiment was strong, while a release on durable goods orders was mixed. The dollar, which was firmer in early trading, was last changing hands at 116.38 yen, down 0.2% from 116.66 Thursday. The euro was unchanged on the day, at $1.1879.

[54anickel]

43. T/A: Euro Bullish Divergence (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie122205.html

snip>

So, what does this mean? In my analysis, it means the euro is about to resume its bull trend which was launched in 2002 in earnest. Look for a euro rise toward 129 as early as the summer months of 2006, at least by year end. Correspondingly, it means the USDollar is about to resume its bear trend which began at the same time. The dollar DX index is a poor excuse for an index. It has been a regular target of my critical words. It is trade-weighted, but from the 1960 decade when the European weight was four times the Japanese weight. The DX index has over 50% weight in the euro, less than 20% with the Japanese yen, and nothing at all for the Chinese yuan. My best answer to the questions "Why use it? Why not update it?" are that it has forward trading and strategies which cannot easily be changed. Furthermore, the low weights given to Asian currencys permit us guys to ignore them, and to regard them as in a permanent state of official shun, a hedonic relegation to sidelined status. The lower that the yen went in recent years, the cheaper the US imports became in price. Consider the Chinese yuan, formerly pegged to the US$, and now in a quasi-peg outside the realm of trader whimsical action. The yuan peg has been broken, but it does not yet trade in free-floating fashion. Some call the Chinese - American sphere the "dollar bloc" since our economies act as one, without currency shifts of essence.

THE ANTI-EURO INDEX
The dollar DX is thus the most inaccurate, misrepresentative, least meaningful index among the high profile indexes. Some call the DX index the "anti-euro" index since its largest component is the euro currency. In a major Elliott Wave III phase, three things align in coordinated fashion, much like a perfect storm. One, the chart technicals and price movement look just right in one direction, a clear story depicted. Two, the fundamentals behind the movement become crystal clear. The experts line up in unison to proclaim the new phase in a consensus fashion, as they recite those fundamentals. Three, the public catches wind of the story, enough to propel the investment vehicles to new heights. We are fast approaching this EW3 phase. It is not here yet, but its day is nigh on the horizon. My suspicion is in the new 2006 year, hedge fund positions will unwind and lead to mining stock short covering, subsidiary repatriation of USDollars will end, and the new Bernanke USFed will be inaugurated to usher in a new hyper-inflation era. These events will mark major sea changes in the new year.




Look for the USDollar index to falter in coming months. Its pillars have eroded, one by one. Its fundamentals are far worse than dreadful. Yet so-called economic experts proclaim strength in the USEconomy in an absurd fashion, worthy of derision and laughter. The only detectable strong indicators in the USEconomy are high S&P500 stock prices and high housing prices. If the DX index falls much below the 90 level, look for hedge funds and program trades to kick in to send the DX downhill with significant speed and gusto. That will be the story during the Bernanke inauguration, as record trade gaps are announced to contradict claims of economic robustness and strength. The cognitive dissonance will be extremely loud and clear for all to hear and see.

YIELD CURVE: LOUD SIGNAL OF SLOWDOWN
The US Treasury yield curve has been flat for a couple months, a clear unmistakable warning signal. As in, the spread between the 2-yr TBill yield and the 10-yr TNote yield has been stuck in the 5 to 15 basis point range. A spread less than 0.15% is a very loud yet unheralded signal, considering how an inverted yield curve has been such a reliable market signal for economic recession over the past twenty years. The graphic below screams a 7 basis point difference for the Treasury 2-10 spread!!! The financial markets have shown a strong preference to declare "it is different this time" and deny critical turning points marred by losses. We saw it in 1999 with over-priced stocks, justified by technology advances, and telecom progress with cellular phones, fiber optic connections, broadband transmission speed, and the internet. Well, to be clear, the internet made profitability far MORE difficult, due to instant pricing information, despite the streamlined supply chains from orders to inventory to suppliers. The bond bubble is about to give off massive gas. The upshot will be lost opportunities to extract home equity, probably the biggest single source of money available to consumers. The USFed chairman and governors had better pay attention. This is a forced, mandated, controlled flattening of the yield curve imposed by a clueless central bank. They must believe the falsified statistics themselves, since in doing so, they pat themselves on the back for a robust economic performance. Chairman Greenspasm is on record denying the significance of the flattened or inverted yield curve. Recall he misread productivity in 1999, and denied technology stock over-valuation. This man has a track record, one fully forgotten at every critical turn in the road, or during every sea change.

more...

[54anickel]

72. OPINION: The fault lines in the world economy

http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Thursday/Columns/20051222111341/Article/indexb_html


snip>

Meanwhile the dollar continues to dominate. Now that many countries hold huge dollar-based assets, they do not want to see a depreciated dollar. Every time market forces try to make the much-needed corrections in the external value of the dollar, these countries quickly intervene to prop it up, thereby obstructing adjustments.

The fact is that the dollar is extremely overvalued. The global imbalance cannot be restored until fundamental changes are made and these must include exchange rate realignments. To be sure, exchange rate changes are necessary but not sufficient.

snip>
The fact that there is no credible alternative to the US dollar as an international currency is not good enough to forestall a disaster for the dollar. Projections have shown that the US current account deficits will exceed eight per cent of US GDP by 2008.

Many analysts think the US dollar will have to depreciate by as much as 30 per cent in order that the US current account deficit is trimmed down to three per cent of GDP, which is considered sustainable.

A 30 per cent depreciation for the dollar would imply huge losses to countries that hold dollar reserves. This is why many countries long for a strong and stable dollar. The problem is that no other currency is seen as a safer bet.

Some countries are therefore quietly opting for gold, which has led to a sharp increase in the price of gold in recent times. Usually, gold prices rise if the dollar is weak, but now gold prices soar even though the dollar remains strong.

If no adjustments take place to correct the global imbalances, the world will have to face a painful crunch later on.

more...

[UpInArms]

73. Gold closes higher at $505 on continuing strong demand

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFA9A5B2A%2D8CC5%2D4D54%2D8E8D%2D3190CC9A717D%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose for a second session Friday, bolstered by reports of continued strong physical demand.

Gold for February delivery closed up 20 cents at $505.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract is down 70 cents from a week ago after trading below the $500-an-ounce level early in the week as some traders locked in year-end gains.

Analysts remain bullish on the metal, which has gained about 12% this year amid physical demand from India and China, central-bank buying and inflation fears.

Earlier, J.P. Morgan upgraded its long-term forecast for the metal to $500 an ounce from $450 an ounce and upped its short- and medium-term outlooks.

"We see the Chinese, Indian and Middle Eastern markets as significant future demand-growth drivers, while in investment, gold-backed paper in the form of exchange-traded funds could be a factor in demand growth," said analyst Steve Shepherd at the firm's African equity research division.

<snip>

At the same time, there is ample evidence that central banks are losing their aversion to gold, a trend likely to continue in 2006.

...more...

And there you have it: "central banks are losing their aversion to gold"

[54anickel]

76. Yup, and I still am uneasy about this Barrick bid for Placer Dome

just something about it starting as a hostile takeover, now it's all nice and friendly. Something doesn't smell right.

[UpInArms]

15. Wal-Mart ordered to pay $172 mln by jury

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T013247Z_01_N22168455_RTRIDST_0_RETAIL-WALMART-UPDATE-2.XML

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) must pay $172 million in damages and compensation to about 116,000 current and former employees for denying meal breaks, a California jury ruled on Thursday.

Wal-Mart said in a statement it would appeal the ruling, adding it believed the punitive damages portion of the award can not be recovered because of a ruling in a separate, unrelated case by a California appeals court, rendered during the trial over its meal-break practices.

In that case, the appeals court held that laws providing for the recovery of punitive damages in addition to actual losses are governed by a one-year period of limitation in California.

Concluding the class-action court challenge against the world's biggest retailer in Alameda County, California, near San Francisco, a local jury held that Wal-Mart had broken a state law governing breaks for meals.

The four plaintiffs who launched the lawsuit in 2001 had claimed Wal-Mart had failed to pay hourly employees for missed or interrupted meal breaks.

"What was compelling for the jury was that we put a lot of evidence before them of memos by Wal-Mart from seven years ago that concluded they had been breaking the law," said Jessica Grant, a lawyer for the plaintiffs. "Instead of taking steps to solve the problem, Wal-Mart concealed it."

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Wal-Mart must pay $200m to workers denied lunch breaks

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article334859.ece

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retail company, has suffered a potentially ominous legal setback, with a California jury awarding more than $200m (£115m) to thousands of employees who alleged they were illegally and systematically denied lunch-breaks.

The company has been fighting allegations for years, in and out of court, that it cuts corners to keep labour costs low. Yesterday's jury verdict in Oakland, near San Francisco, marked the first time that the company had been forced to go to trial and lost.

The suit was one of about 40 in the works nationwide alleging that the Arkansas-based retailer, which boasts a chain of mostly suburban superstores across the United States and beyond, routinely violates US labour laws - keeping workers off the clock so they are not credited for overtime, denying them lunch-breaks and other rests, and so on.

Wal-Mart is at the centre of a growing dispute over the economic desirability of the sort of superstore it has pioneered. While the chain, and others like it, provides affordable consumer goods and plentiful employment, especially in impoverished areas of the country that are badly in need of both, its critics complain that it earns its profits at the expense of both the communities where it takes up occupancy and its own underpaid employees.

While the surviving members of the founding Walton family are all multi-billionaires, almost half the children of company employees either have no health insurance or else rely on government-sponsored subsistence programmes to gain access to basic medical care, according to the company's own figures. An unknown number of employees relies on government food stamps to keep body and soul together month to month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Foreign cenbanks net buyers of US debt in week -- Fed (selling Treasuries)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-22T213043Z_01_NAT001929_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FOREIGNERS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were buyers of U.S. debt in the latest week, but only because increased investments in government-sponsorded agency debt offset declines in their Treasury debt holdings, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks rose by $5.251 billion in the week ended Dec. 21, to stand at $1.516 trillion.

The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central banks purchased $7.387 billion in debt issued by government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), but sold $2.136 billion in Treasuries.

The full Fed report can be found on:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. US Treasuries turn up on weakness in durables data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T134950Z_01_NAT001931_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-DURABLES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned higher on Friday morning on weakness in underlying capital goods orders, which more than offset a strong headline number in U.S. durable goods orders.

Overall, durable goods orders rose 4.4 percent in November, easily exceeding economists' expectations of 1.0 percent growth and topping October's downwardly revised 3.0 percent growth. The number reflected soaring orders for commercial aircraft.

But non-defense capital orders excluding aircraft, considered a reliable measure of business investment, dropped 2 percent in November versus October's downwardly revised 1.2 percent growth.

Prices of benchmark 10-year notes, which were lower before the data, turned a touch higher to yield 4.431 percent compared with 4.433 percent on Thursday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Printing Press Report:Fed adds reserves via 5-day system repurchases

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T143413Z_01_N23343235_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday it had added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through five-day system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.25 percent, the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

52. US Treasuries flip higher on weak home sales data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T163041Z_01_N23402132_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned higher on Friday on weak new home sales data that suggested to some traders the Federal Reserve's campaign of interest rate increases might end a bit sooner than thought.

The government reported that sales of new homes slipped 11.3 percent in November to an annualized rate of 1.245 million units, compared with economists' expectations of 1.305 million.

Housing has been a pillar of the U.S. economy in recent years, and a weaker housing market would lessen the inflationary pressure the Fed has been fighting with rate hikes.

But analysts cautioned not to read too much into the data and what it means for the interest rate outlook.

"The data must be considered confirmation of a clear slowing in the housing sector ... and is then solidly bond friendly and dollar negative," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST Ltd. in New York.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. Treasuries see ghost of yield curve inversions past

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T193704Z_01_N23474669_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-3.XML

CHICAGO, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices jumped for a second straight day on Friday as a slide in new home sales and weak elements in the durable goods orders data for November sparked fresh doubt about the economic outlook.

The yield curve flattened to a wafer-thin level in the two-year and 10-year maturities while long bond yields, which respond to growth and inflation expectations, dropped to its lowest in over three months.

"The 'just right' Goldilocks economy took an early vacation this week as growth news turned squishy and price data were mixed," said economists at Goldman Sachs.

<snip>

"Faltering U.S. new home sales, reflecting shrinking housing affordability, call into question the notion of another year above-trend growth for U.S. consumer spending and real gross domestic product," said Robert Barbera, chief economist at Hoenig & Co. in Rye Brook, New York.

<snip>

The prospect of an inverted yield curve -- when two-year yields are above 10-year yields -- is being watched as a possible signal that recession will follow several months down the line.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Morgan Stanley CFO gets one-time $8 million stock award

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38709.3721566782-855473028&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley (MWD) late Thursday said it is awarding Chief Financial Officer David Sidwell a one-time restricted stock award worth $8 million. The disclosure was made in a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares of Morgan Stanley closed up 37 cents to $58.48 on Thursday.

[UpInArms]

20. Dollar and shares steady, wise men buy gold

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-23T135857Z_01_L23767493_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-4.XML

LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Investors resisted the temptation to bag some late Christmas gifts on Friday with the dollar and shares steady as markets wound down for the holiday period.

Trade across asset classes was thin with some markets closing early and Japan also shut for the Emperor's Birthday holiday.

Gold brought some festive cheer, edging a shade higher above $500 an ounce with dealers saying prices would range for the rest of the year despite low liquidity.

U.S. stock futures indicated a flat opening on Wall Street, with little reaction to data showing new orders for U.S. durable goods rose by a much larger-than-expected 4.4 percent in November on a jump in civilian aircraft.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Money for heating bills dies in Congress -

Many agencies expect to have no funds in 6 weeks

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051223/NEWS06/512230463/1012

WASHINGTON -- Emergency funding to help needy Hoosiers heat their homes this winter was scrapped by lawmakers this week, despite the increased demand caused by higher energy prices.

Nearly half of the 24 Indiana agencies that distribute the federal aid expect to run out of money by the end of January, says the National Energy Assistance Directors' Association.

"We have people that are, of course, seriously concerned as to whether they're going to be able to pay their heating bills," said Vickie Allen-Beeson, support and development manager for Indiana Community Action Association, which represents the agencies.

Congress also reduced the regular annual assistance allotment as part of a 1 percent across-the-board cut in some spending.

<snip>

Robert Greenstein, executive director of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said GOP leadership had been using the emergency heating assistance as a lure to get lawmakers to vote for controversial bills, and its fate did not have to be tied to the drilling provision.

"The only linkage was a purely political one.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. The indices are still set to start the session near the unchanged mark. There are two additional items on today's economic calendar, to which the market may look for some trading direction amid light news and slim volume. The University of Michigan's revision to its December consumer sentiment report will be released at 9:45 ET, followed by November new home sales data fifteen minutes later. As a reminder, the Treasury market closes at 1:00 ET today.

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. The cash market remains poised for a flattish start. Although news on the the corporate front continues to be limited, one item that may garner attention is Texas Instruments' (TXN) potential divesture of its sensors-and-controls unit to private equity firm Bain Capital. The sale may register $2.5 billion, making it one of the largest buyouts in the Technology sector this year. Separately, durable goods orders rose 4.4%, higher than the 1.1% increase that economists had expected and last month's 3.4% rise. The stock market's immediate reaction has been a muted one, while the Treasury market has hurdled the flat line.

[UpInArms]

24. Dana now expects to restate after-tax income lower by $50M

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38709.398466169-855476894&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Dana Corp. (DCN) said Friday it still expects to file its restated financial reports for the first two quarters of 2005 and prior years before the end of 2005, but said it now expects the total net after-tax income for all periods to be cut by $50 million. The expected restatement forecast is higher than previously expected, the auto parts company said, due to a correction with respect to steel surcharges in the prior calculation of the company's 2004 LIFO inventory reserves.

[ozymandius]

27. Eighteen minutes into flatness.

Dow 10,894.80 +5.36 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,251.16 +4.67 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,268.67 +0.55 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 44.46 +0.13 (+0.29%)
NYSE Volume 131,299,000
Nasdaq Volume 102,532,000

[ewagner]

28. Happy Holidays

to all the SMW troopers who keep me informed every day.

I lurk often, post infrequently but appreciate all the hard work that goes into these threads.

Happy Holidays ALL! :hi:

[UpInArms]

30. Happy Holidays ewagner!

[EuroObserver]

59. Yeah, much appreciated.

Happy Christmas (and Emperor's day in Japan)!

Many thanks for your hard, enjoyable, keen-eyed work.

I'll try to make a few more, irregular, international contributions in the new year.

[UpInArms]

63. Happy Christmas and Emperor's Day and a couple days late Solstice

to you EuroObserver!

We, here at the SMW, aim to inform (albeit through our cynical eyes) of the happenings - please join in anytime!

:toast:

[AnneD]

66. Love your graphics....

you keep me in stitches.

[UpInArms]

70. Hiya AnneD!

You shouldn't get me started on those graphic things!





:grouphug:

[AnneD]

75. Rock on sister

rock on.

[54anickel]

29. Bonus Fever on London's Wall Street

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/23/business/worldbusiness/23bonus.html

LONDON, Dec. 21 - Ebenezer Scrooge would not be happy this Christmas.

At pubs, restaurants and office parties in the City, London's Wall Street, all the talk has been on the bonuses that are being lavished on bankers and traders.

London is at the center of an expansion in European deals, helped by inflows of cash from private equity shops, the Middle East and Russia, and a rush of foreign listings on the London exchange.

As a result, many bankers here are hoping that this is the year when their year-end bonuses, which have traditionally lagged those of their counterparts across the Atlantic, rise to a comparable level.

"London and New York have been coming closer and closer together over the last few years," said Carl Sjostrom, a partner in KPMG's executive compensation practice. "New York is a bigger market, but there have been some fantastically lucrative areas in Europe as of late."

more...

[UpInArms]

33. Feb Crude @ $57.85 bbl - Jan NatGas @ $12.13 mln btus

10:00am 12/23/05 FEB CRUDE DOWN 43C AT $57.85 A BARREL

10:00am 12/23/05 JAN NATURAL GAS DOWN 79.30 CENTS AT $12.13 PER MILLION BTUS

[UpInArms]

34. 10:07 EST still flat

Dow 10,893.28 +3.84 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,252.83 +6.34 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,268.49 +0.37 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.448 +0.15 (+0.34%)

NYSE Volume 226,105,000
Nasdaq Volume 180,056,000

[54anickel]

35. The Bonfire of the Inanities; Seriously, Could It Get Any Worse?

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/122205S.shtml

snip>

Scandalous to the End

California Republican congressman Duke Cunningham had a narrow window of opportunity. It was late November, and he had 15, 20 minutes tops, to become a late entry in the scumbag sweepstakes that was 2005. The aging Navy fighter-jock did not miss his chance. At an impromptu press conference, Cunningham announced both his resignation from Congress and his guilty plea to several corruption charges. On that sunny autumn afternoon, the Dukester secured his place in history - as a simpering, blubbering jellyfish.

Most years, Cunningham's weepy guilty plea and resignation would have been a major news story for weeks, but in 2005, it barely merited a "So what else is new?" shrug of the shoulders.

By the time we got to Cunningham's sobbing exit, no one - absolutely no one - could keep track of all the scandals involving the Bush-Cheney administration, the Republican Congress, and state and local Republican leaders and their corporate and evangelical cronies. There were procurement scandals, media scandals, emergency-preparedness scandals, even treason scandals. These people stole everything, from coins in Ohio to billions in Iraq - including, in the estimation of some, the 2004 election, giving George W. Bush a matched set of nebulous claims to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Which is where we entered 2005: believe it or not, Bush and Cheney's second inaugural was a scant 11 months ago. Feels more like 11 years, doesn't it? I've suppressed almost all memory of the inauguration except for two things: a hazy recollection of the halftime show for the Crusades and the faint hope that Bush-Cheney arrogance would lead to such brazenly incompetent and unconstitutionally criminal behavior that not even Rupert Murdoch would be able to conceal it.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. a scant 11 months ago. Feels more like 11 years, doesn't it?

That just about sums it up, doesn't it?

More crimes and scandals than anyone can count, more destruction, death and debt.

It all makes me so tired. :(

[54anickel]

39. That's the line that caught me as well. Got that lump in the throat

that you get when you're driven to tears by anger and you try to hold 'em back.

[54anickel]

78. I just took a good look at Ozy's opening post. Gads, look at the numbers

yesterday's close and the current price of gold and oil compared to where they were when McChimpster took office. The markets have been basically running in place for five stinking years, but look at the gains gold and oil have made! The economy truely does SUCK!

[MARALE]

40. Ho Ho Ho

Happy Holidays to you All!

[UpInArms]

49. Happy Holidays Marale!

Love the jiggling Santa!

[54anickel]

51. HA! Great pic. I'll bet there are a lot of Republican asses jigglin'

just like that, but for far different reasons than old Santa there. Daschle's article in the WAPost has got to have a few of them squirming right about now!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/22/AR2005122201101.html

[AnneD]

67. You are confusing ass jiggling..

with sphincter tightening. Two different reactions to two different stimuli.

[54anickel]

69. You're right! I stand corrected! eom

[UpInArms]

71. Hey 54anickel!

I found a picture for you for Christmas!



It being Friday and all, here's a bit of wine to bring in the holiday cheer

[54anickel]

77. Why thank you UIA. That picture is the perfect replacement for this

one that currently hangs over the fireplace mantel. A new theme....ALL WIRED UP




:toast:

Merry Christmas UIA. Hope you have a great weekend and holiday!

[UpInArms]

41. 10:44 EST Santa Rally in doubt

Dow 10,871.51 -17.93 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,246.18 -0.31 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,265.93 -2.19 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.419 -0.14 (-0.32%)

NYSE Volume 381,182,000
Nasdaq Volume 297,655,000

10:30 am : Blue chips vacillate around the unchanged mark, while the tech-heavy Composite hangs slightly higher. The Energy sector's 1.3% decline weighs heavily, and, amid lackluster leadership, stunts the broader market's advance. Crude futures' 0.8% drop to below $58 per barrel has sparked some further attempts to lock-in some of the sector's 31.7% gain. Refiners, Energy's best-performing year-to-date industry, lead the decline. Joining that sector in the red is the Consumer Staples sector, off just over 0.1% largely due to weakness in its food retail group. This morning, grocer Albertson's (ABS 20.58 -2.70) disclosed that it has terminated all negotiations regarding the sale it had been considering. As a result, the stock has plummeted nearly 12%. DJ30 +1.28 NASDAQ +5.01 SP500 +0.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1165/1381/244.3 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1148/1728/215.0 mln

09:55 am : The market's major averages hover just above the flat line, with gains offered by eight of the ten sectors supporting them. Spirited leadership, though, is absent. The Technology sector's 0.3% gain tops the chart, driven by relative strength in semiconductors that Texas Instrument's (TXN 33.14 +0.42) news has spurred. Separately, the University of Michigan upwardly revised its December report on consumer sentiment to a better than expected 91.5, versus the 89.0 consensus estimate and 88.7 preliminary read. The data, though not directly correlated with actual consumer spending, bodes well for retailers during one of the busiest shopping days of the year. That industry currently demonstrates relative strength. DJ30 +8.88 NASDAQ +6.50 SP500 +0.94

[MARALE]

44. I think the rally happened yesterday

They just wanted to believe that there was moore blood to squeeze out of the turnip. I think that this coming year will be a bad economical. With the new bankruptcy laws and the savings rate at a negative, many people will face hardships. I hope all will be okay, but with the programs cut to the poor and the tax cuts to the rich, I can't see it getting any better.

[ozymandius]

45. 10:58 update and I gotta run

Have a great weekend everyone! :hi:

Ozy

Dow 10,876.47 -12.97 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,246.80 +0.31 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,266.90 -1.22 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 44.05 -0.28 (-0.63%)
NYSE Volume 438,327,000
Nasdaq Volume 337,847,000

[UpInArms]

47. Have a Great Weekend Ozy!

and Happy Holidays to you and yours!

:hug:

[MsLeopard]

46. Happy Holidays to the SMW Group

And thank you for all the work you put into this thread. I've been reading it since Radfringe started it daily, though this is the first time I've posted (as you can see, I don't post that much). When I started reading SMW I wanted to learn about the stock market - now, four years later I know a lot about the mechanics of it all, but predictions - eh, not so much.

However, this thread is a must read every day and I've been wanting to say thank you for a while now. Ozy, 54, UIA, Maeve, Julie, and the rest of you - many thanks for your observations and insight all these years.

Cheers!

[UpInArms]

48. Happy Holidays MsLeopard!

Glad to have you here at the SMW!

Come on in anytime and join the fun :D

[54anickel]

50. Wow, you have been "lurking" for a long time! Pleased to meet ya!

Have a great holiday season MsLeopard. So happy to have you stop by.

:toast:

[UpInArms]

53. Refco Fallout: Thomas Lee to leave private equity firm

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310AP_Thomas_Lee_Departure.html

BOSTON -- Thomas H. Lee plans to leave the $12 billion private equity firm he started 31 years ago to launch a New York-based investment fund, the company said Wednesday.

Lee, the 61-year-old chief executive and chairman of Boston-based Thomas H. Lee Partners, told the staff of his intention to leave in an e-mail Wednesday. Lee said he was negotiating separation terms with his firm and said in the e-mail his departure "is very friendly, and, I am sure, will portend years of joint and cooperative investment activities."

Lee's investments have come in a wide range of companies, from book publisher Houghton Mifflin to Warner Music Group and battery maker Rayovac. In what may have been the company's biggest coup, Lee bought Snapple Beverage Co. for $135 million in 1992, then sold it two years later for $1.7 billion to Quaker Oats.

Last week, the company said it would join two other private equity firms in a $2.4 billion deal to buy Canton-based Dunkin' Donuts and two other restaurant chains that are being sold by their parent company, France's Pernod Ricard SA.

However, some of the firm's moves soured, including a $500 million investment in 1999 in Conseco Inc., an insurer that sough bankruptcy protection three years later before re-emerging from Chapter 11. Lee also made a $450 million investment last year in Refco Inc., the commodities brokerage that recently collapsed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. RPT-Detroit car job cuts dash blue-collar dreams (death of middle class)

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nL20637003

FLINT, Michigan, Dec 23 (Reuters) - For nearly three decades, Charles Coe has made a good living as a worker for General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) in Flint, Michigan.

Coe, 60, planned to retire comfortably in two years with his sizable pension, a benefit that is still a cornerstone of blue-collar workers' compensation in the auto industry.

But that dream is unraveling as Delphi, which filed for bankruptcy protection in October, is now demanding unprecedented wage and benefit concessions from the United Auto Workers union.

"I stand to lose everything I have worked a lifetime for," Coe said as he arrived for an afternoon shift at Delphi's Flint East plant.

Delphi wants to cut jobs, slash paychecks in half and free itself from the pension obligations of tens of thousands of employees it inherited from GM when it was spun off in 1999.

<snip>

"It's almost like there is this wildfire that's going to take down the middle class," Grandstaff said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

55. 11:52 EST all better now

still trying for that "Santa" rally :eyes:

Dow 10,891.76 +2.32 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,249.09 +2.60 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,268.32 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.389 -0.44 (-0.99%)

NYSE Volume 601,278,000
Nasdaq Volume 459,681,000

11:30 am : Little has changed for the indices, but two additional sectors, Healthcare and Telecommunications, have slid into the red. With respect to the former, healthcare suppliers are the weakest link. Bausch and Lomb (BOL) has plummeted over 6% at this juncture, hit by sellers for another day following its update on Thursday regarding a financial investigation. Specifically, management has been accused of improper conduct in its Brazilian subsidiary. The company has concluded, based on the investigation and tax assessments, that certain prior-period financial statements will be required to be restated. DJ30 -7.61 NASDAQ +0.97 SP500 -1.5 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1421/1346/408.9 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1257/1779/366.4 mln

11:00 am : Losing their footing, the Dow and S&P now trade on negative turf; the Nasdaq has similarly faded, and currently sits on the flat line. Within the Dow, one-third of constituents trend higher, but none of them have notched 1.0%. IBM's (IBM 83.70 +0.48) 0.6% rise presently leads. Action to the Dow's downside, at the same time, remains modest; of the lagging majority, Exxon Mobil's (XOM 56.82 -0.28) 0.5% decline is worst. DJ30 -9.77 NASDAQ +0.22 SP500 -1.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1334/1343/349.8 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1257/1707/315.1 mln

[54anickel]

57. Buyers must be out to lunch - back in the red at 12:26

Dow 10,885.27 -4.17 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,246.34 -0.15 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,267.70 -0.42 (-0.03%)
10-yr Bond 4.389% -0.04
30-yr Bond 4.561% -0.05
NYSE Volume 686,130,000
Nasdaq Volume 526,423,000

12:00 pm : Encircling the flat line, the market's major averages reflect lackluster trading action during the final session before the Christmas holiday. Although there's been a considerable amount of news, given the fact that many participants have gotten an early start on the weekend, buyers and sellers alike are sticking to the sidelines.

Amid slimmer than average volume, a lack of leadership alongside a weighty decline in the Energy sector has stunted the broader market. Materials (+0.2%) fares best, and is joined by five other sectors in standing just barely above the unchanged mark. Technology (+0.1%) had led in the early going, due to relative strength in semiconductors that followed reports that Texas Instruments (TXI 51.01 +0.31) may divest its sensors and control unit to private equity firm Bain Capital. The potential sale would be the largest leveraged buyout within the sector this year. Further to today's relatively busy M&A front, Bain Capital is part of the consortium eyeing a possible $8 billion bid for Affiliated Computer Services (ACS 60.64 +2.56). Despite the optimism that such news typically catalyzes, the sector faces some widespread selling that keeps in within proximity of the flat line.

As mentioned above, Energy (-0.9%) serves as the heaviest drag. A 0.7% drop in the price of crude futures has given traders reason to lock-in some of the market's best-performing sector's 31.7% year-to-date gain. Consumer Staples accompanies it in the red, dragged especially by food retailers. Albertson's (ABS 20.77 -2.51) is the weakest link there, plummeting after announcing that it's terminated all talks regarding the sale it had been considering. Wal-Mart (WMT 48.44 -0.16) exerts additional pressure upon facing a fine related to the denial of employee lunches. Healthcare relinquished its gain mid-morning, challenged by considerably relative weakness in its supplier group; Bausch & Lomb (BOL 73.32 -5.75) is the driver behind the decline, experiencing extended selling after providing an update yesterday on financial allegations relating to its Brazilian subsidiary.

The session's economic calendar features three items, each of which has been released. Durable goods orders jumped a much better than expected 4.4% in November, reflecting strong business investment that has supported GDP and kept it above long-term trends. Though not directly correlated with consumer spending, the University of Michigan's upward revision to its December sentiment report bodes well for retailers during one of the year's busiest shopping days. That industry demonstrates relative strength, and holds the Discretionary sector (+0.2%) higher. Last but not least, November new home sales plunged 11.3% to a 1.245 million rate. While this is not the beginning of an implosion, it has served somewhat bullish for bond traders looking for evidence that the Fed's tightening cycle is nearing its end.
DJ30 -3.29 NASDAQ +1.29 SP500 -0.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1431/1390/478.8 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1245/1846/451.4 mln

[AnneD]

68. WOW....

lunch like Wal Mart......do they allow food on the trade floor?

[UpInArms]

56. Solectron's stock falls on (sales and) profit plunge

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE61FF5B4%2D6AE1%2D4645%2DBCCD%2D216CA3C73289%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - Solectron Corp.'s stock fell as much as 6.2% on Friday after the contract electronics manufacturer said its quarterly profit was cut in half and sales fell.

Solectron (SLR) reported the profit slump as its revenue fell 9%. In recent trading, the stock fell 5.7%, or 22 cents, to $3.62. At one-point, the stock sank to $3.60.

Solectron makes hardware for other large technology firms, including communications equipment for Cisco Systems Inc., (CSCO) its biggest customer.

The company posted net income of $24 million, or 3 cents a share, including discontinued operations, in its fiscal first quarter. In the year-ago period, it earned $58.2 million, or 6 cents a share. Profit from continuing operations fell to $20.2 million from $47.5 million.

Revenue fell to $2.46 billion from $2.69 billion a year ago, but came in better than Wall Street expectations of $2.39 billion.

...more...

[54anickel]

58. Barrick Agrees to Buy Placer Dome for $10.4 Billion

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a2tS5GuTr3Cg&refer=us

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp. agreed to buy rival Placer Dome Inc., creating the world's largest gold producer, after sweetening its offer to $10.4 billion.

Barrick raised its bid by 9.8 percent to $22.50 a share or 0.8269 of a Barrick share plus 5 cents, Toronto-based Barrick said today in a statement. The transaction will be financed in part with $1.49 billion from Goldcorp Inc. of Vancouver, which will get some Placer assets in Canada.

The acquisition would be the biggest ever in the gold industry, vaulting Barrick ahead of Newmont Mining Corp. as the world's largest producer. Mining companies have been acquiring rivals as gold prices rose to a 24-year high and output declined in South Africa, Australia, Canada and the U.S.

``Everyone comes out happy,'' said Danny Bubis, who manages the equivalent of $1.5 billion including shares of Barrick and Placer at Tetrem Capital Partners in Winnipeg, Manitoba. ``Barrick had to raise its offer 10 percent, but avoided a bidding war.''

more...

There goes the neighborhood...How much backing did they get from JP Morgan Chase? :eyes:

[54anickel]

60. Ford health-care deal fails to stir investors

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-12-23T163252Z_01_FOR359526_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-AUTOS-FORD-HEALTHCARE-DC.XML

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co.'s (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) agreement with the United Auto Workers union to cut the automaker's multibillion-dollar health-care costs fails to excite investors, analysts said on Friday.

Blue-collar workers at Ford on Thursday narrowly ratified a deal that Ford said will allow it to cut about $650 million of its estimated $3.5 billion annual health-care expense. The UAW had originally said Ford would save $850 million.

"Pretax savings appears to be less than what we expected," said Bear Stearns analyst Peter Nesvold in a note to clients, adding that GM appears to have gotten a better deal.

"The pretax benefit of Ford's deal appears to be 25 percent of existing annual expense vs. 54 percent at GM," Nesvold said.

more...

Guess the worker's aren't bleeding hard enough yet

[54anickel]

61. NBC Takes Control of MSNBC, Reducing Microsoft Role

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/23/business/media/23cnd-nbc.html

snip>

The transaction could be the first step in ending a nine-year partnership between the companies, and puts NBC squarely in control of the network, which has lagged behind the Fox News Channel and CNN in the ratings race for years. NBC said it has an option to acquire 100 percent of the cable channel within two years.

The deal comes after nearly a year of negotiations to undo the partnership, in which each side was increasingly frustrated with the other. Within NBC, executives complained that they did not have enough control of the network's budget to hire the right talent and market its programs.

Executives at Microsoft have worried that media business is outside their primary mission and may be a black hole. Microsoft sold its stake in Slate, the online magazine, to The Washington Post last year.

Without Microsoft, NBC may change MSNBC's direction as well as its name, analysts have said. Earlier this year, executives at NBC had talked about the prospect of renaming the network. NBC, which is 80 percent owned by General Electric, said today it plans greater integration between MSNBC and NBC News.

more...

[UpInArms]

65. 2:36 EST mexed missages

Dow 10,886.57 -2.87 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,247.28 +0.79 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,268.27 +0.15 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.380 -0.53 (-1.20%)

NYSE Volume 976,046,000
Nasdaq Volume 753,157,000

2:00 pm : While volume is lighter than average and though gains are very modest, the indices are holding their own today as buyers have somewhat extended yesterday's efforts. Serving as a particular source of support have been lowered bond yields. Traders' attention to the fact that the 10-year closed at a 4.37% yield -- a level not seen in about two months -- generates some optimism that has seeped into the equity market. DJ30 +3.83 NASDAQ +1.83 SP500 +0.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1404/1527/686.5 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1236/1926/644.2 mln

1:30 pm : More of the same for the stock market, which has held the indices virtually sill over the past hour. Volume continues to be slim, and the bond market has just begun its holiday weekend. Although the Energy sector has managed to almost completely erase its day-long loss, the flat-line statuses of every gaining sector leaves the market static. Materials sports the best gain, but its 0.4% has little to no effect as the sector accounts for less than three percent of the S&P 500.DJ30 +5.04 NASDAQ +1.31 SP500 +0.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1404/1500/632.5 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1206/1943/591.2 mln

[JNelson6563]

79. If there are any Marketeers still hangin' around

Just wanted to stop in and wish all a Merry Christmas, Happy Solstice or whatever ya got! You guys rock and this thread is a fine present to us all every day! :toast:

Cheers!

Julie

[Maeve]

80. And may Santa bring y'all better than he took Wall Street today!

Final numbers:

Dow 10,883.27 -6.17 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,249.42 +2.93 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,268.66 +0.54 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 43.80 -0.53 (-1.20%)
NYSE Volume 1,295,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,000,713,000

If that's a "rally", Dubya's a leader!.....:eyes:

[UpInArms]

81. Quote for a lifetime! If that's a "rally", Dubya's a leader!

:yourock: