STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 2 December

[ozymandius]

Friday December 2, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 51 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1807 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1506 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1468
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 1, 2005

Dow... 10,912.57 +106.70 (+0.99%)
Nasdaq... 2,267.17 +34.35 (+1.54%)
S&P 500... 1,264.67 +15.19 (+1.22%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.52% +0.02 (+0.47%)
Gold future... 506.30 +7.60 (+1.50%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Seasonal Tendencies – A Decade of Performance of the S&P 500 in November and December

It appears that the year-end rally came right on schedule and it was in fact, smart to follow the crowd so far. Now that we have made it though November, are there any trends that can shed light on whether the year end rally will continue? I have prepared 2 line charts which illustrate S&P 500 performance throughout the November/ December timeframe over the last decade. The first chart indicates performance from the beginning of November to the end of the year. The second chart illustrates performance from the beginning of December through the end of the year.

Over the last 10 years there were only two (2) years where the S&P 500 produced negative returns from the beginning of November through the end of the year. These negative returns occurred in 2000 and 2002, which were both vicious bear market years. In the 8 other years, the November/December timeframe produced gains of approximately 4 to 10 percent.



-cut-

Today’s Market – Price Action Trumps All Else

The stock market was up decisively today and apparently everything that moved was up big. High movers outpaced low movers, including stocks, oil, commodities, and precious metals. Up volume strongly outpaced down volume and total volume was significantly higher than the last few days. More up to follow in all probability. Bonds were down and appear to have resumed their downtrend. The general scenario over the last few days has been for positive economic data to hurt the bond market. With rumors that the fed would stop raising short term interest rates serving as the excuse for the bond and stock market to rally together, after a three day breather, the stock market is rallying once again. Yet this time it is doing so without the bond market. I suppose that we are left with seasonality as the sole reason for the apparent decisive resumption of the year end rally.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Interesting what Mr. Goldberg has to say about Google stock.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Average Workweek for Nov
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.8

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings for Nov
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls for Nov
Briefing Forecast 225K
Market Expects 210K
Prior 56K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate for Nov
Briefing Forecast 4.9%
Market Expects 5.0%
Prior 5.0%

[UpInArms]

12. Reports tumbling in:

but there's something funny with that jobs report - what's with the Household Survey showing a 52,000 job drop and the report showing a 215,000 increase?

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 3.2% Y-O-Y

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. SERVICE JOBS RISE BY 165,000

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY SHOWS 52,000 DROP IN JOBS

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. AGGREGATE HOURS WORKED FALLS 0.1%

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. FACTORY JOBS RISE 11,000

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. SEPT., OCT. PAYROLLS REVISED UP BY 13,000

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. AVERAGE WORKWEEK FALLS TO 33.7 HOURS

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. JOBLESS RATE 5.0% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 12/02/05 U.S. NOV. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 215,000 VS. 223,000 EXPECTED

adding link and blurb on edit:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38688.354244919-853042331&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. job growth recovered in November, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 215,000, the best growth since July, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate was steady at 5%. The figures were in line with expectations on Wall Street, where economists had forecast a gain of 223,000 and a jobless rate of 5%. Payrolls in September and October were revised higher by a total of 13,000. Total hours worked in the economy fell 0.1% in November. The average workweek fell by a tenth of an hour to 33.7 hours.Average hourly earnings increased by 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $16.32. Average earnings have risen 3.2% over the past year, the biggest jump since March 2003.

[UpInArms]

13. Reaction to jobs report range from 'amazing' to 'not strong'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38688.3703893056-853045574&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Quick reactions by economists to the November jobs report run the gamut from "amazing" to "not strong." Josh Shapiro, chief economist for MFR, said the report was "amazing," and said nothing in it changed his view that the Federal Reserve would boost rates at its next four meetings. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the details of the report were solid and noted that the 3.2% year-on-year gain in hourly earnings shows inflationary pressures are building. Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics, said the drop in hours worked offsets much of the gain in employment. "Not a terrible report but a sobering one ahead of Christmas," Brusca said.

[AnneD]

60. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Is it me, have I become so cynical that I don't buy these numbers for a minute, because I really don't. I know too many people out looking for work. And the jump in average earnings ..... Discounting the fact that I work in education....wages are not keeping up with increased COL here in Houston. Way too many of my friends have second mortgages and took them out to pay off credit card debt or funding Jr's education. When will these Delphi, Ford, Alcoa, etc,etc, etc, layoffs show up in the stats.

[UpInArms]

65. morning AnneD!

don't ask me - am in a terrible mood this morning -

This will be a short day for me - have to prepare to go and get spanked by the confident consumer.

The following was on an application for an art show that I received yesterday:

2005 was a hard year for artists and promoters alike. Declining attendances have plagued consumer events across the board from Home Shows, Boat Shows, Antique Shows, Music Concerts, Movies, Craft Festivals, Art Fairs, Street Fairs and more... In the short term it is painful for the many artists who participate in these events in their death spiral.

[AnneD]

88. I go to many events and know many in our local art scene...

it has been a horrific 4 yrs. The last 2 have been really rough. It's bad enough the money is drying up, but you have the CIA poking around your shows and questioning your loyalty if your art is the slightest bit critical of the current regime. Most artists I know show that work privitally now. The revolution has gone underground for the time being (and boy is some of it scathing).

[ozymandius]

3. The Economy | Volatility telling us something?

Home sales are falling - yikes! Run for the exits! The bubble has burst, and we're all in big trouble.

No, wait. Home sales are up. Hallelujah, we're saved! There's nothing to worry about; we can refinance the mortgage and use the cash to go Christmas shopping.

-cut-

Beware, credit-tappers

Beyond all the real estate salespeople, mortgage brokers and construction workers who'll be looking for something else to do, think about people who have gotten used to tapping their home-equity credit for spending money, or have paid for cars, vacations and college tuition by adding to their mortgage debt.

That's why a lot of economists are anxiously watching for other sources of strength in the economy. Something other than housing needs to grow and produce jobs and wealth, or the next few years could be rocky indeed.

more...

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/13287854.htm

[54anickel]

36. The Times They Are (About To Be) A Changin'

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Oh Say Can You OCC?...As you might know, the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and one of the chief banking system regulators) is set to hand down guidelines regarding bank commercial and residential real estate landing practices prior to year end. Given the fact that interagency discussions about the initial draft of the guidelines has really only just begun, don't be surprised if it's somewhere in 1Q 2006 that final guideline commentary is made public. Nonetheless, it's clear to us from recent comments by the Comptroller himself that in terms of residential real estate credit availability, the times they are about to be a changin'. At least as far as the banks are concerned. For the full version of his recent comments made on October 27th, just follow the link. Of course we couldn't help but excerpt a few lines here and there from the text that will give you the feel for the raised level of OCC concern regarding recent bank real estate lending practices. It's absolutely clear to us that these folks want to see "new era" residential mortgage lending products reigned in rather meaningfully. And unless the US banks are desirous of unwanted audit scrutiny, they're going to get in line with the guidelines. Here are just a few unedited excerpts directly from the text we linked above that, if you will, sets the tone in terms of the regulatory level of concern.

snip>

The charge of the OCC is to maintain a safe and sound banking system. There's simply no question that in 2006, they will be carrying the banner of real estate lending practice concern as they charge into US banks from sea to shining sea. What will this do to the character of mortgage lending in the US broadly? Of course that remains to be seen. The OCC is concerned with the banks. It's not the regulator of subprime lenders such as New Century. After all, despite the fact that NEW's stock price is down over 40% this year alone, New Century can go right on making any kind of loans it chooses. Remember, as we've told you many a time now, the largest source of mortgage credit creation in the US over the last few years has been the asset backed markets. The ABS markets themselves will ultimately dictate the terms of mortgage lending to the non-bank players such as NEW. ABS investors will react when delinquencies spike and perhaps defaults begin to occur. But for now, what's important in watching for change in the residential real estate markets is to watch all sources of credit creation and how the character of that lending changes ahead. For now, at least according to the OCC, the US banking system is going to be taking one step back from imbibing in "new age" mortgage lending practices of the last three to five years. That's one small dent in the armor of overall credit availability. One last comment. We're absolutely convinced that private capital, which supports the asset backed securities markets, will turn the credit spigot off entirely if default trouble begins to brew in residential mortgage lending land. Remember, as we've told you ad nauseum over the last half decade at least, liquidity is inherently a coward. There's always too much when it's least needed and it's never around when it's needed most. (Admittedly, in the greater picture of the moment, the FED may be changing this little rule, at least for now.)

At the moment, US banking system exposure to both commercial and residential real estate is approximately 53% of total loans and leases outstanding. If we include current HELOC (home equity line of credit) exposure, which is not included in the chart below, the number below moves to just over 60%. And if we include bank investments in mortgage backed paper, the numbers move even higher. No wonder the folks at the OCC believe it's a topic of current interest.



Notice the year the climb started? When did Greenspin take the Chair? Heh-heh.

It'll Soon Shake Your Windows And Rattle Your Walls, For The Times They Are A-Changin'...There is absolutely no question at all that capital extraction from home equity values has been meaningful to US consumers over at least the last half decade. The super folks at Freddie Mac recently revealed their cash out refi numbers for 3Q a while back. Again, we'll let the pictures to the talking. As of the end of 3Q, the gang at Freddie was estimating that happy US homeowners were currently on track to extract over $200 billion in cash via only the cash-out refi mechanism in 2005 alone. If indeed this comes to pass, it will be a record amount. And this is despite the fact that refi activity in terms of specific volume count is not particularly vibrant at the moment at all. As you'll see in just a minute, this magnitude of cash extraction is really a function of folks yanking ever larger percentages of "equity" out of the current values of their homes. After all, as the TV commercials and assorted realtor community spokesfolks continue to remind us in the media, anyone sitting on unused equity in their homes is simply not maximizing investment opportunities, right? Apparently those individuals doing refi's seem to be listening to that very message.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Secrets (Gross-PIMCO)

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2005/IO+December+2005.htm

snip>

The biggest secret during the past few years in the bond market has been why intermediate and long-term interest rates have remained so low in the face of a 300 basis point uplift from the Federal Reserve. Departing Chairman Greenspan has called it a “conundrum” while incoming Chairman Bernanke sought to provide answers via his “global savings glut” speech in early 2005. PIMCO, to be fair, teed off on the conundrum long before Bernanke pulled the cover off his driver, elaborating as far back as our 2003 Secular Forum on the lack of global aggregate demand and the dampening effect it would have on global growth. We did not, however, draw the logical extension from declining G-7 investment spending/reserve recycling to a flattening yield curve and stationary long-term rates. Too bad. What is clear to us now, however, as well as to a growing list of other investment managers, economists, and even Federal Reserve Board researchers is that interest rates have been lowered for a number of logical reasons that are likely to persist for some time:



1) Economic globalization has led to the prioritization of export supply over domestic demand as Asian and OPEC countries have adopted a mercantilistic model emphasizing reserve accumulation and the recycling of those reserves into global bond markets.

2) U.S. and Euroland corporations are accelerating the global savings glut by conserving cash flow instead of investing it. With China offering huge returns on investment relative to G-7 economies, it’s hard to blame them.

3) Asset/liability trends stressing long-end maturities as well as reduced risk premiums due to central bank transparency may have added a marginal although difficult to measure compression to the longer end of global curves.



This challenge to answer Greenspan’s conundrum has been a productive one if only from the standpoint of the amount of research and brainpower applied to the question. It’s as if a Nobel Prize were at stake with some papers emphasizing corporate savings, others stressing ALM trends/risk premiums, and perhaps a majority siding with Bernanke and his global savings glut thesis. None of them seem willing to acknowledge the totality of factors as if to suggest that the secret – the philosopher’s stone of the bond market – is theirs alone. I suspect not, but an astute investor has only to recognize that all of the above cited factors have a probable longevity that exceeds a normal business cycle, and will therefore keep yields low for some years to come. Globalization, demographics and central bank transparency are difficult trends to reverse and will likely be compressing yields in 2010 much like they have in 2005. That is why discretionary bond investors like PIMCO are comfortable in investing clients’ money at a 4½% 10-year Treasury rate instead of waiting for 6% which may have been a more “normal” yield during the investment frenzy of the dot-com years or the less than “transparent” central bank policy years of the 1980s.

The graph displays a history of the one-year real Treasury rate nine years forward into the future. Such yields can always be interpolated from existing yield curves although the extent to which they represent expectations as opposed to say a reduced risk premium, is difficult to measure. Nonetheless, in March of this year Bernanke went so far as to point out that the market expectation of the future one-year nominal short-term rate has declined during the past few years by as much as 1¼ percentage points, and that was before the additional decline of 50 basis points seen over the past six months. The global savings glut was his primary explanation, hinting that the change had longevity.



PIMCO analysis has gone even further, at least in terms of the conundrum’s magnitude. We would suggest the U.S. and indeed many global bond markets have experienced a reduction in forward nominal and real short-term interest rates of as much as 200 basis points due to the aggregate global trends discussed in preceding paragraphs, and that these yields are likely to represent the norm for years to come. If true, that means in terms of current monetary policy that the Fed is much tighter than standard analysis would presume. Today’s short rate of 4% is really equivalent to 6% in my view, a rate that was only 50 basis points shy of the cyclical tightening peak of 6½% in 2000. I find it a little perplexing to listen to economists expounding on the still stimulative level of today’s short-term and indeed long-term yields in the U.S. As seen below in Chart 2, the current recovery has been only average relative to the past 20 years or so in terms of GDP growth (and below average in terms of employment) despite massive Fed and fiscal stimulation over the past few years beginning in 2001. Now after 300 basis points and 17 months of tightening – which by the way is typical of prior bear cycles as well – it should only be logical to expect a slower economy in 2006, an end to Fed tightening, and the beginning of an easing cycle late in the year. While yields may not fall much on the longer end of the curve unless ALM trends accelerate, one- to five-year rates could decline by as much as 100 basis points over the next 12 months. This scenario is at risk of course should exporters such as China decide to invest their surplus funds within their own borders instead of in global bond markets – a possibility that at the moment appears years away.

more...

[54anickel]

56. G-7 Central Bankers, Politicians May Clash on Rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aUN7OiWy3QbE&refer=top_world_news

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Central bankers and finance ministers from the world's richest nations may clash today over whether the global economy can withstand higher interest rates.

Policy makers from the Group of Seven industrial countries are convening in London to assess the outlook for the world economy as JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts 2006 will be the first year in six when the three biggest central banks raise interest rates simultaneously.

That is worrying finance ministers such as Sadakazu Tanigaki of Japan and Germany's Peer Steinbrueck, who say higher borrowing costs aimed at containing inflation risk derailing economic growth, putting them at odds with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui.

``The finance ministers of various countries are very likely to complain to the central bankers,'' Vito Tanzi, who attended G- 7 meetings as Italian undersecretary of finance from 2001 to 2003, said in an interview. ``Their objectives are different, with the ministers wanting low rates to stimulate the economy and the bankers targeting price stability.''

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Oil Prices Rise on Approaching Snowstorm

NEW YORK - Oil prices surged more than $1 a barrel Thursday as a winter storm approached the Northeast, which is likely to boost demand for heating oil.

Also driving up the energy markets was strong economic data — particularly the U.S. Commerce Department's report Wednesday that gross domestic product rose at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter — which stoked many traders' belief that energy demand could outpace supplies into the coming year.

"What's keeping the market on the upward track is ... continuing strength in economic data," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "We're getting ready for another demand boom for oil and natural gas, as well as a price boom possibility."

-cut-

"The system can't handle any cold weather. For prices to be steady, we need mild to warm weather," Kilduff said.

more

[UpInArms]

34. Jan Crude @ $59.10 bbl - Jan NatGas @ $13.21 mln btus

10:10am 12/02/05 JAN CRUDE CLIMBS 63C TO $59.10/BRL AFTER 3-WK HIGH OF $59.20

10:10am 12/02/05 JAN NATURAL GAS UP 18.3C AT 1-MO HIGH OF $13.21/MLN BTUS

[ozymandius]

5. Ford likely to close five plants: WSJ

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. is likely to close five plants that employ about 7,500 workers, or about 6 percent of the company's North American workforce, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

Citing two people familiar with Ford's product plans, the paper said the company was likely to shut assembly plants in St. Louis, Atlanta and St. Paul, Minn., as well as an engine-parts plant in Windsor, Ontario, and a truck-assembly plant in Cuautitlan, Mexico.

The plans to shut the plants were still being formulated and were subject to change, the Journal added.

Ford, facing a deepening financial crisis, has promised to unveil a radical restructuring in North America early next year.

more

[ozymandius]

6. Fuel prices hit US vehicle sales

Sales at US car giant Ford have plunged as the US love affair with big sports utility vehicles continues to wane.

The firm said its unit sales were down 18% in November, while General Motors' sales were down 11% and DaimlerChrysler's sales fell 2.7%.

The dip was not as bad as October's slump at Ford of 26%. But it indicated that fresh price cuts and incentives were failing to pull in customers.

High oil prices have hit sales of SUVs, where profits tend to be highest.

more...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4490258.stm

[UpInArms]

50. Ford may close five plants that employ 7,500: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=mktwsnap&guid=%7BE287707D-80C0-44F0-95F1-4E1AD2FA8F65%7D

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. is considering closing five plants that employ 7,500 workers, or 6% of its North American workforce, a report said Friday.

Ford (F) is likely to close assembly plants in St. Louis, Atlanta, St. Paul, Minn., Windsor, Ontario, and Cuatitlan, Mexico, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing two anonymous sources.

The closings would be just one part as part of broader revamp led by William Clay Ford Jr., the company's chief executive and great-grandson of Henry Ford. See story at WSJ.com (subscription only).

General Motors (GM) recently announced it was cutting 30,000 jobs.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.11 Change +0.29 (+0.32%)

Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Can the US Really Generate +200k Jobs

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5219&Itemid=39

Traditionally, the US non-farm payrolls report is one of the most important economic indicators for the US economy as well as the US dollar. However, over the past few months, the impact of the payrolls report on the currency market has been more muted, as the market attributes the volatility of the indicator to the brutal Hurricane season. With two months having past since Hurricane Katrina earned its rank as one of the deadliest US disasters on record, economists are predicting a more meaningful rebound in the labor market. The big question is – Will they be right?
What is the market forecasting for the month of November?

Change in Non-farm Payrolls:              +210k    (previous 56k)
Unemployment Rate:                           5.0%    (previous – 5%)
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:          5k      (previous 12k)
Average Hourly Earnings MoM:             0.2%    (previous 0.5%)
Average Weekly Hours:                       33.8    (previous: 33.8)

Of the 69 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the range of forecast extends from a low of 145k to a high of 350k. This is a bit narrower than we have seen in previous months, but with economists overestimating payrolls in four out of the past six months, the reliability of this month’s forecast remains questionable. Yet, according to supporting data released over the past few weeks, we think that the release could actually come in the ballpark of the consensus forecast this time.

Here’s how the data stacks up:

Fed’s Beige Book Shows Continued Optimism - According to the Beige Book, various Fed districts have reported that the labor market remains tight. More specifically, the Fed said that “several districts reported signs of tightening in labor markets and some difficulty in finding workers for certain occupations.” They also added that ``District reports indicated modest overall upward pressures on wages.'' So from the front line, the labor market is improving, which means that we should at least 56k jobs added onto the economy. Tack on an 18k boost from the end of the Boeing strikes and we a should see at least see a 75k contribution from these two factors.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Report: China to revalue yuan again on Jan. 1

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38688.4097192593-853053404&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Chinese government will revalue the yuan on Jan. 1 to a level where one dollar is worth 7.5 yuan, from its current level of 8.08 yuan, the German publication Wirtschafts Woche said on its Web site.

[UpInArms]

39. U.S. Treasury's Snow says China decision right one

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-02T151451Z_01_WAT004517_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-CHINA-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury chief John Snow said on Friday Treasury's decision not to cite China as a currency manipulator last month was appropriate given Beijing's July yuan revaluation, but pledged to monitor the situation.

<snip>

"But we're also not satisfied and we made it clear in the report that we are going to continue to monitor this situation and we find the fact that there isn't more flexibility troubling," he added.

When asked about fiscal issues, Snow said the 2007 federal budget, due out of the White House early next year, would "hit spending hard."

"The budget is now in preparation. It's going to be a very tough-minded, stringent budget," Snow said, declining to comment on specifics. "It is going to go after discretionary spending hard and it's going to be a very constrained budget."

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. dollar turns lower vs. yen on reports of Snow comments

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38688.4541400694-853062087&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar turned lower against the Japanese yen Friday, falling sharply off its highs, on reports that Treasury Secretary John Snow said the Group of Seven will discuss the weakening yen at their meeting this weekend. The buck was down 0.1% at 120.33, down from a 2 1/2-year high of 121.22 in intraday trading. At its highs, the dollar had gained 9.2% vs. the yen since the end of August.

[UpInArms]

8. Delta reports $1.14 billion loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1066EFD0%2D4246%2D4F45%2D9B63%2D3AA50086DC03%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Delta Air Lines said it lost $1.14 billion between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to a bankruptcy court filing.

Delta (DALRQ), which filed Sept. 14 for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors, reported operating revenue reached nearly $2 billion, but operating expenses were $2.33 billion.

Other costs from items also hit results, with reorganization costing $650 million. That included items such as $476 million for rejection of aircraft leases, Delta reported in the filing.

The Atlanta-based airline also reported a loss of $6.04 per share for the period, according to an operating report submitted to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York's Southern District.

"Due to the impact of the proceedings, seasonal variations in the demand for air travel, the volatility of aircraft fuel prices and other factors, operating results ... are not necessarily indicative of operating results for the entire year," Delta reported.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Calpine considering filing for bankruptcy

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-01T225533Z_01_N01305143_RTRIDST_0_UTILITIES-CALPINE-UPDATE-4.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Embattled power producer Calpine Corp. (CPN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it might consider filing for bankruptcy and there was a "substantial risk" it might not have enough money to pay its debts or keep operating.

The announcement came after the company earlier asked a Delaware court to give it at least 90 days to repay millions of dollars it spent to buy fuel for its plants, saying anything less could be "potentially ruinous."

Calpine shares sank, closing down 25 percent at 38 cents on the New York Stock Exchange, and its bonds slid further.

"Regardless of how the court rules in this case, there is a substantial risk that Calpine will not have sufficient cash to satisfy the restorative remedy ordered by the court and its ongoing debt service obligations and operating expenses," the San Jose, California-based company said in a statement.

"As a consequence, Calpine continues to evaluate its options, including the possibility of filing for bankruptcy."

Calpine also said it has taken actions it believes have "effected a cure of the alleged default" in a suit in Delaware Court of Chancery. The suit contends it breached obligations relating to convertible notes indenture.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Credit bulls laugh as markets cheer for year-end

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-02T114341Z_01_L02575413_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-IMPLIEDVOL-XMAS.XML

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - As European stocks have marched to 3-1/2 year highs in recent weeks, credit markets have also staged their own mini-rally due to receding concerns over growth, interest rates and defaults.

The spread on the iTraxx crossover index of high-yield credits tightened as much as 6 basis points on Friday to 276 basis points, the lowest level since Sept. 19 and only 8 basis points above an eight-month low.

Implied March volatility on the iTraxx crossover index, the derivative's market's "fear gauge", was at 34 percent, near the lowest level on record and down from a high of 80 percent earlier this year.

Lower iTraxx implied volatility shows investors are confident valuations will remain near current levels in coming months. Equity volatility is also dropping, hovering on Thursday near a six-month low.

"The risks are not as bad as people thought," said Saul Doctor, an analyst at JP Morgan. "We don't get the feeling companies are going to go out and spend excessively, and sentiment is strong into year-end."

<snip>

"People are betting nothing bad is going to happen before Christmas," said Pierre Yves Brettoniere, a strategist at BNP Paribas. "It also looks like the ECB is going to be less aggressive than we thought, plus there is a lot of cash looking for a home."

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Merrill pension advisor unit gets SEC subpoena: report

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-12-02T095017Z_01_HO235343_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-FINANCIAL-MERRILL-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc.'s pension consulting unit in Florida received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of the regulator's investigation into conflicts of interest among advisors to pension funds, the New York Times said on Friday.

The Florida operation, which advises nearly 100 large and small pension funds, is the largest pension advisor in the state, the report said.

Merrill Lynch could not immediately be reached for comment on the report.

[UpInArms]

14. Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack Criticizes Mess He Made

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38688.3750883796-853046399&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chief Alan Greenspan urged Congress to take steps to bring the federal budget deficit back into balance before it gets to be too late. "In the end, the consequences for the U.S. economy of doing nothing could be severe," Greenspan warned in a speech prepared for delivery to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's policy forum on the federal budget outlook. Greenspan did not dwell on current economic conditions or mention monetary policy. He said only that the economy has delivered a solid performance this year, despite the hurricanes, and "appears to be expanding at a reasonably good pace as we head into 2006."

This Sorry Sack o' Shit supported tax cuts for the rich, robbing FICA funds, cutting corporate taxes and bloated military budgets for his buddies in the BFEE - a cell at the Hague would be too cushy.

I'm still waiting for his death and the notification of where his burial plot will be so that I can take my dog and make my travel plans.

[UpInArms]

16. WUHBPH renews warning on U.S. budget deficits

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-02T140603Z_01_WAT004516_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-GREENSPAN-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Good short-term prospects for the U.S. economy should not distract from huge looming fiscal strains that pose "significant" economic risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday in a renewed warning on budget deficits.

The departing U.S. central bank chief said while U.S. spending on defense and homeland security will not stay at the current pace forever, "our budget position will substantially worsen in the coming years unless major deficit-reducing actions are taken."

"In the end, the consequences for the U.S. economy of doing nothing could be severe," the Fed chief warned.

In remarks prepared for delivery to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conference, Greenspan urged reinstatement of congressional budget restraint rules but said these alone wouldn't be enough to bridge gaps in U.S. health and retirement programs expected as the baby boom generation retires. Nor was it advisable to fix things using taxes alone.

[Kolesar]

49. Like Eisenhower & the mil-industrial complex on his last day in office

"I fucked up" "sorry"

[UpInArms]

52. WUHBPH is a complete and total FUed Sorry Sack

11:10am 12/02/05 GREENSPAN: BUDGET DEFICITS, PROTECTIONISM ARE CHIEF WORRIES

11:10am 12/02/05 GREENSPAN: AT SOME POINT, CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP WILL NARROW

11:10am 12/02/05 GREENSPAN: U.S. HOUSEHOLD DEBT NOT SIGN OF ECONOMIC STRAIN

11:10am 12/02/05 GREENSPAN: FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MAKE TRADE GAP BENIGN

11:10am 12/02/05 GREENSPAN:DOLLAR NOT UNDER PRESSURE FROM CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38688.4653632407-853064237&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The large and growing U.S. current account deficit, a chief concern of international economic policymakers including the International Monetary Fund, might stem from broad financial developments instead of a sign of instability, Fed chief Alan Greenspan said in a speech Friday on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in London. "I should like to raise the hypothesis that the reason the historically large U.S. current deficit has not been placing persistent pressure on the exchange rate of the dollar, at least to date, is that the deficit is a reflection of a far broader and long-standing financial development in the United States and elsewhere," Greenspan said.

I wish someone would tell this whackjob to STFU and die already.

[54anickel]

91. Bwahahaha! "At SOME point, current account gap will narrow"

Is he talking about the point where the US becomes another banana republic? Maybe when we go the way of Argentina? I'm adding another wheelbarrow to my Christmas list.

[54anickel]

51. The Greenspan Warnings

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barisheff/barisheff120105.html

As gold flirts with 20-year highs, we are hearing more from the "gold bugs" or, as they are sometimes appropriately called, the "doom-and-gloomers". Appropriately, because a gold bug's current outlook for the future of traditional financial assets such as stocks, bonds and currencies is not optimistic, particularly in the US. A gold bug traces today's financial problems back to the removal of gold backing from global currencies; without such backing, there is no limit to the amount of money that politicians and the banking system can create. Monetary inflation inevitably leads to price inflation, and creates asset bubbles and excess debt that have historically led to financial collapses. However, pointing out these realities has earned gold bugs the label of doom-and-gloomers. For the most part, they are ignored by the ever-optimistic mainstream media and are relegated to offbeat websites and publications.

There is, however, a key spokesperson from the mainstream - Alan Greenspan, the most powerful financial person in the world today - whose voice cannot be ignored. On the surface he toes the party line and goes along with traditional optimism. But when you listen carefully to his words and read between the lines of his speeches, you will find another message. It is a message remarkably similar to that preached by the gold bugs, the doom-and-gloomers. In fact, if you dig deep below the surface, down to his root beliefs, you will discover that Mr. Greenspan is a closet gold bug.

That's right. Alan Greenspan is a gold bug. A doom-and-gloomer right up there with the best of them. On close review of some of his recent speeches it will become apparent that his comments on issues like the potential for a derivatives crisis, the potential drop in asset prices, the housing bubble, the coming social security crisis, oil supply risks, the rising budget deficit, rising long term interest rates and the record high current account deficit are the same issues that gold bugs are warning about. These speeches often go unreported by the mainstream media, or are buried on the back pages, but most importantly they have not been compiled into one comprehensive summary.

Although they are warnings, in some cases they are not clearly stated. For example, in reporting on Greenspan's August 26 speech at Jackson Hole, CNN said: "Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a veiled warning Friday on the risks to the economy from trade and budget deficits -- as well as the recent run-up in home prices."

snip>

So what has Greenspan actually said about the problems facing the US economy? A look at his words on each of the issues named above provides some important insights.

more...

[UpInArms]

53. the way the WUHBPH works is like that - he showers the world

with gobblediegook and mumbledjumbo so that he can say both things from boths sides of his slitheryslathery hole and no one can discern which conundrum he's playing with, his riddle or his peck.

[donkeyotay]

58. He also advised raising Social Security taxes back in the Reagan era

The thief wanted "extra" taxes paid by working stiffs so that there would be a surplus to cushion the retirement of the baby boomers. Then they stole it... I don't have a dog, but I might get one.

[UpInArms]

62. the baby boomers were the first generation to "pay in advance"

for their retirement in the FICA TRUST FUND - and this WUHBPH was at the heart of the thievery.

I'll loan you a dog.

[UpInArms]

70. WUHBPH says to cut social security benefits

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B46D32BF7%2DBC53%2D4DA3%2DA780%2DB5A4A22B0B60%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

But he said budget rules alone will not solve the nation's budget problems.

The U.S. must scale back the promises that have been made to future retirees, he said.

"I fear that we may have already committed more physical resources to the baby-boom generation in its retirement years than our economy has the capacity to deliver," Greenspan said.

Greenspan said it would be better for the economy if spending cuts rather than tax increases were used to close the fiscal gap.

...more...

[punpirate]

105. Another take on those reduced benefits...

... defense spending (just the portion identifiable from annual appropriations--the real rate of spending is even higher) has, since the end of the Korean war, remained at a war rate--about four times more than what was spent in peacetime between WWII and the Korean war.

Now, if we had spent just 50% of what we've spent to date (double the usual peacetime rate), with nothing else changed, the current Treasury surplus would be around $4 trillion ($3 trillion actual savings, and about $1 trillion in interest)....

[AnneD]

73. my cat isn't too picky

and neither are my dogs. The best punishment would be for him to become broke and live in this mess he has made.

[UpInArms]

75. the WUHSPH is old and has around $9 Million in assets

according to 2005 (reporting 2004 data)

http://www.fmcenter.org/atf/cf/{DFBB2772-F5C5-4DFE-B310-D82A61944339}/AG05.pdf

[AnneD]

87. I figured as much...

but I can dare to dream.....You know there are diseases that would eat up that much money just for treatments. :dilemma: :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

15. US card issuers eye unlikely group: new bankrupts

The bloodsuckers seem to have a need never to let anyone out of their grasp.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-02T141936Z_01_N02395399_RTRIDST_0_BIZFEATURE-CREDITCARDS.XML

CHICAGO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Bankrupt? Want a credit card? You're golden.

A record number of Americans filed to wipe out their debts this year ahead of the autumn implementation of a tough new bankruptcy law. That surge in filings forced U.S. credit-card issuers like Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Capital One Financial (COF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to report a huge jump in uncollectable debts in the third quarter and to warn the losses would bleed into the fourth quarter.

The bankruptcy bubble has forced the card issuers to set aside big amounts to cover the unprecedented surge in charge-offs. It's also forcing them to scramble to rebuild their diminished loan portfolios, which are already under stress because of new federal guidelines on minimum payments requirements that are cutting into receivables and interest income, according to analysts at Citigroup Global Markets.

As they consider their options, some in the industry are reportedly mulling a strategy that concerns consumer advocates -- signing up the consumers who just had their debts discharged.

Sound crazy? It's not. For starters, the new bankruptcy law requires debtors to come up with a payment plan to satisfy unsecured creditors like the card companies. So the newly bankrupt are actually pretty good credit risks. But that's not all. In a world where the average creditworthy American already has more than four general-purpose credit cards and where response rates to direct-mail solicitations touting zero-interest teaser rates have fallen below 1 percent, experts say the newly bankrupt have much to recommend them.

...more...

[54anickel]

21. I've noticed that there are more and more "general-purpose" credit

cards being issued in place of the "store-only" type. While I was shopping for the wedding this fall, the stores were giving a 15-20% discount if I made the purchase on a newly opened credit account. Never one to miss a bargain, I took the offer - but they were general-purpose Visa or MasterCard accounts. I heard from my S-I-L that Sam's is doing the same thing.

I plan on closing all of the accounts, should probably do it sooner rather than later or my credit rating is going to start looking horrendous - too much available credit. Funny thing, it was so dang easy to get them, if you consider I was single, unemployed, and technically homeless when I got them. ;-)

[AnneD]

74. all you need to qualify...

is a pulse. No thanks. A fica score is based on debt-it is an I love debt score. Cut em up.......quick. I would rather carry a snake in my purse. I know the newly bankrupt use to not be able to declare bankruptcy for so many years after-which made them good candidates.

[UpInArms]

17. pre-opening blather

9:14AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5.

9:01AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. As traders digest the better than expected rise in non-farm payrolls, which serves as another indication of strong underlying economic growth, futures trade has ticked upward and now points toward a slightly higher open for the indices. The Treasury market, meanwhile, has settled back down to its pre-data levels; the benchmark 10-year note (-03/32) presently yields 4.53%. Separately, there's a dearth of corporate news, but Ford's (F) closure of five plants takes the headlines.

8:33AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Last month's jobs data has recently crossed the wires. In November, non-farm payrolls rose 215, above the 210K economists had expected and well above October's downwardly revised +44K. The employment rate held steady over the prior month's 5.0%, matching expectations, while hourly earnings fell slightly to 0.2% (consensus 0.2%). The average work week was 33.7 hours. In immediate response to the data, the bond market has ticked slightly upward while futures trade within the equity market has held relatively still.

7:59AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Versus fair value, futures trade suggests a flat to slightly lower start for stocks - following yesterday's broad based rally and ahead of the November employment report. The non-farm payrolls component is likely to garner the most attention; economists expect a 210K rise. The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 5.0%, while hourly earnings are estimated to have risen 0.2%. The data is due out at the bottom of the hour.

[proud2BlibKansan]

18. So I have a little extra money

and I want to start playing the stock market.

What's a good stock to start with?

[UpInArms]

20. ...

thanks for the laugh!

[proud2BlibKansan]

22. Well I was kind of hoping not EVERYONE would laugh

Seriously, I have been wanting to start playing the stock market for a couple years now. I have figured out which stocks NOT to buy. But surely there has to be a few that are blue companies and would be a safe investment.

[UpInArms]

24. I'm sorry - my humor is really twisted this morning

I can only say that I am not a professional investment advisor and therefore am thoroughly unable to offer investment advise.

I do wish you the best of luck in any investments that you have or consider having.

And I really didn't mean to laugh so hard - but there are so little facts on the ground regarding sound fiscal health of any corporations - you might check at www.karmabanque.com for a different view.

:hi:

[proud2BlibKansan]

27. Thanks for the link

[54anickel]

26. A year ago I'd have suggested anything that has to do with the

"military industrial complex", energy or medical. But all of those seem to be at risk in the current political environment and at their current high P/E ratios.

Ever heard the phrase buy low, sell high? Do you think anything out there falls into the "low" category these days? Most indicators are pointing to a slow down, if not recession, coming up in the next year.

While we don't give out investment advice here I would recommend you wait for the upcoming sale.

[proud2BlibKansan]

28. I am not sure I could support the

military industrial complex. I was thinking of something a bit less controversial.

[54anickel]

32. You may want to do a search on social investing then. Many of the

companies and funds have done fairly well. But do your homework and be aware that there are a few funds have picked up the tag of "social" investing without really having that mind-set at heart. They just wanted a piece of the growing action when the scandals started breaking out.

[proud2BlibKansan]

35. OK thanks

[Kolesar]

47. Buy an S&P500 Index mutual fund & plan to hold it for years

www.vanguard.com
https://flagship4.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/HomepageOverview


No sales commissions and low maintenance fees.

[Zynx]

81. If one doesn't have the time or discipline to do it on their own, that is

the best way to go. Individual stocks is a difficult path and one that requires much dedication.

[Kolesar]

82. Growth of earnings, return on cash, management who are shareholders...

...there's a whole mess of data to sift through. I dropped back to a mix of index funds and international funds.

[Zynx]

84. I have two funds to take care of small caps and international stocks, but

I do domestic large caps myself. It requires a good deal of time, but I find it to be fun as well as rewarding. This year I am spanking the major averages with my portfolio.

[Kolesar]

85. Yes, I read your terse summary in post #80

It sounds well founded. I used to do a huge amount of studying on the Motley Fool website before it became a pay subscription site. I really cannot say when I will be picking individual stocks again.

I find myself reading more about energy policy now for the activism I do. If I ever figure out which thin-film photovoltaic producer has the right business model, I will give you a nod. :)

[Zynx]

80. I've been investing for some time now with my spare cash.

I own Procter and Gamble(PG) as my core holding(largest, most stable position), Marsh and McClennan(MMC) as a deep value(in otherwords junk) play, Medtronic(MDT) as a long term healthcare play, Johnson Controls(JCI) as an industrial play, Emerson Electric(EMR) as another industrial play, Wells Fargo(WFC) as a banking play, and Embraer(ERJ) a Brazilian airplane maker as my wild and crazy stock.

Unfortunately, I don't think any of these qualify as blue companies. It is very difficult to invest in companies that don't donate to Republicans so I don't even try. The way I look at it, they actually pay me money with their dividends. They don't make squat by me buying a tiny amount of their stock.

[Tace]

38. If You Want To "Play" The Market, There's An Interesting Play...

at the bottom of the Market Wrapup today, first post. Goldberg suggests shorting Google and going long an equal amount split between Yahoo and E-Bay.

It's not the kind of thing to do with retirement money. But, it could pay off nicely. Not that I'm any kind of expert, nor am I trying to give advice.

[UpInArms]

19. 9:33 EST markets open in the red

Dow 10,898.00 -14.57 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,264.55 -2.62 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,262.91 -1.76 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.537 +0.16 (+0.35%)

NYSE Volume 54,054,000
Nasdaq Volume 73,246,000

What?? Is it going to be a weekend where they don't want to own stock? Nah, just a bit of profit-taking and fleecing the sheep.

[UpInArms]

23. Printing Press Report:Fed adds reserves via over-the-weekend system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-02T143307Z_01_N02342691_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through over-the-weekend system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4 percent, the Fed's 4.0 percent target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

25. underlying inflation pressures are still elevated

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-02T144147Z_01_NAT001905_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-INFLATION-ECRI-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures
slipped in November, influenced by data on jobs, loans, input
prices and vendor performance, according to a report on
Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future
Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical
swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 121.6 in November
from an upwardly revised 124.3 in October.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out
monthly fluctuations, fell to 3.1 percent from an upwardly
revised 8.2 percent in October.

"The USFIG has come off from October's five-and-a-half-year
high, but underlying inflation pressures are still elevated,"
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director for ECRI, said in a
report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Dec Gold @ $502 oz

9:47am 12/02/05 DEC GOLD FALLS 50C TO $502/OZ AFTER $504.50 HIGH

9:47am 12/02/05 DEC COPPER CLIMBS 0.6C TO $2.174/LB AFTER RECORD $2.183

[UpInArms]

40. Dec Gold @ $504.80 oz

10:37am 12/02/05 DEC GOLD TURNS HIGHER, TRADERS UP $2.30 AT $504.80/OZ

10:37am 12/02/05 FEB GOLD UP $1.80 AT $508.10/OZ IN NY

[54anickel]

45. Weird movements in gold vs dollar the past hour if you look at the

1 day charts at INO. Is it just me, or are they moving down, then up together from 9 - 10?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

[UpInArms]

48. seems like gold has been doing some truly weird jumps

for the past couple of days -



I'll look for a more detailed chart

[54anickel]

61. Which Phase Are We In?

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/dec022005.html

Standing at the podium at the international Investment Conference in San Francisco last weekend, I was struck that there were as many people in the audience when gold was within a hair of $500 an ounce, as there were in 2001 when the gold price was $260 an ounce. Why is there so little interest in gold, in spite of its price almost doubling in the past five years?

The answer is that we had not seen a bull market in gold -- until now. The increase in the US dollar gold price from $260 an ounce in 2001 was due almost entirely to the devaluation of the US dollar on foreign exchange markets, yet there was much talk during the past few years of "where we are" in the gold bull market. Some people claimed we were in "Phase 1", others said we had entered "Phase 2" and still others thought we may have gone through "Phase 3" and that they bull market was almost over. I maintained that there was no bull market, merely a bear market in the dollar.

But since July of this year the gold price has been rising for reasons not related to exchange rates (also see last week's commentary). I think the auditorium in San Francisco was half empty because the bull market in gold is so young that few even realize it has started. We are, in my opinion, only at the very beginning of Phase 1, if there is such a thing.

People instinctively turn to investments such as gold during times of uncertainty, when they perceive risks that they do not know how to guard against. Since 1982, or thereabouts, we have enjoyed a bull market in stocks, a bull market in bonds, a bull market in real estate and, until only a few years back, a bull market in the dollar. It is no wonder that the people who do think about gold are few and far between. Life has been good during the past twenty-five years.

snip to what seems to be today's theme>

The last bastion of the US consumer-driven economy is the residential real estate market. Soaring real estate prices, cheap and creative mortgages and low interest rates have enabled consumers to spend far more than they produce. If the rise in real estate prices stops, then economic growth will stop as well, and if real estate prices were to start declining we could see a whole lot of whining.

more...

[54anickel]

89. End of the line for the metals rally?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=moreover&guid={144D619D-EE87-4635-B387-930AA684AF1C}

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Prices for most precious and industrial metals have climbed to levels they hadn't seen in years, forcing investors to consider whether the rally in the metals will soon come to an end.

Gold and silver are trading at their highest levels since 1987, while palladium's price is at a 20-month high, platinum recently reached its loftiest level in more than 25 years and copper has scaled to never-before-seen heights. See daily Metals Stocks reports.

"The global economy is steaming full-speed ahead, and it is a metal-devouring monster," said Sean Brodrick, a contributing editor to Money and Markets, Weiss Research's daily financial e-letter.

snip>

Analysts agree that the chance for volatility is extreme in the metals markets at this point. "Predicting anything when it comes to the financial markets is an exercise in futility," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

But some metals possess greater potential than others at this critical juncture.

more...

[WhiteTara]

76. Hi UIA I found this on the discussion

board and thought it worthy of moving the information over here.
here is the link to the full article
http://the48er.com/gold.html
snip
BushCo Works Its Magic: The Dollar's Lost Half of Its Value vs. the Universal Currency

One measure of how seriously the Bush administration has damaged America is to be found in the price of gold, which has soared during most of Bush's tenure. Militant Islamists haven't caused that -- BushCo has.

Gold serves as a universal currency against which other currencies (and their underlying economies) may be measured, and as a barometer of global stability. It bodes well for America when gold prices (in US dollars) are stable or down slightly. Under Bush, however, it's been the opposite -- and then some:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5501794

This introduces DU newbie the48er's creds
I've followed international gold trading fairly closely since I was a securities and commodities broker in the '80s. Since then, nothing -- and I mean nothing -- has freaked that market worse than BushCo. The 9/11 attacks barely moved gold's price, but since Bush's "Axis of Evil Speech," it's up nearly 80 percent (six percent in the last few weeks alone). The flip side of that, of course, is that the US Dollar has been annihilated vs. gold. That bodes very, very ill for the United States -- and for a long time to come. More details and graphics here.

Thanks for letting me drop in :hi:

[UpInArms]

77. thanks for that great addition BNL!

and drop in anytime!

:pals:

:hi:

[UpInArms]

31. 10 o'clock bounce comes right on time

Dow 10,899.76 -12.81 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,266.11 -1.06 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,264.17 -0.50 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.537 +0.16 (+0.35%)

NYSE Volume 273,987,000
Nasdaq Volume 276,154,000

10:00AM: The indices continue to trend lower, but losses have been kept in check during the early going. Leading the way south are 0.4% declines in Industrials and Telecommunications; six other sectors also levy modest losses. Energy, meanwhile, has risen 0.4% - extending yesterday's run and helped by upticks in energy prices. Crude has gained 0.7%, trading at $58.85 per barrel, while gasoline and natural gas have similarly attracted some buying interest. Other than boosting that sector, though, that action appears to be overlooked by the broader market. The Discretionary sector has risen 0.1% early on, supported by relative strength in retailers after yesterday's same-store sales data was consistent with a good holiday spending season. Last night, Starbucks (SBUX 31.80 +0.66) posted Nov. comps of +7.0% (consensus +4.4%); this morning, Walgreen (WAG 46.53 +0.42) also beat expectations with a 7.8% (consensus 7.0%) rise. NYSE Adv/Dec 1005/1624, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 999/1369

9:40AM: Despite futures indications and good economic data, the equity market opened in the red as traders perhaps continue to lock-in some of the indices' average 4.1% November gain and eye upticks in energy prices. The morning's jobs report showed that non-farm payrolls rose 215K in November - slightly higher than the expected 210K increase and above October's downwardly revised 44K. The gain reflects strong hiring trends, and is above the two-year (pre-Katrina) average 185K rise. Further, the data provides another indication that underlying economic growth remains strong. Over the past two weeks, data from just about every area of the economy has checked in better than expected. To that end, Briefing.com has recently revised its Q4 real GDP forecast to a 3% annual rate, from a previous 2% expectation.

(updated blather on edit)

[54anickel]

33. Fed Abandons M3 Without Honest Explanation

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=49114

Unilaterally and without reasonable explanation, the Fed has decided to stop reporting money supply M3, the broadest of the monetary aggregates and probably the most important statistic published by the U.S. central bank. The decision comes as a shock to many in the financial community and apparently to other central banks, which reportedly were not consulted.

One obvious explanation that makes sense is that the Fed does not want anyone to see what Presumptive Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is going to do to broad money growth. Suggestions that Mr. Bernanke has the odor of an inflationist about him are not going to help quell the speculation. Something is terribly afoul at the Fed, but the popular financial press offers little but moronic platitudes and attacks on "conspiracy theorists" who dare to question the sanctity of the Federal Reserve Board.

I even saw one related comment yesterday from a well known financial reporter who laughed at the concept of there being a Plunge Protection Team that intervenes in troubled stock markets. She cited such a concept as evidence of the absurdity of some conspiracy theories.

I first saw the term "Plunge Protection Team" used in 1997 by the Washington Post, when it published an extensive article detailing the activities of the Working Group on Financial Markets. Anyone interested in this "imaginary" group, which includes the Fed Chairman, might wish to read the article, "Plunge Protection Team." It was authored by Post staff writer, Brett D. Fromson, and it appeared on Sunday, February 23, 1997.

And for what it's worth, my colleague, Doug Gillespie, published a piece on his website on November 14th entitled, "Bye-Bye, M3, but Why?" There was an outpouring of reader response to Doug's article, and to a person, respondents expressed the opinion that the Fed's action failed -- and failed badly -- the smell test.

more...

[UpInArms]

37. info on Working Group on Financial Markets aka "Plunge Protection Team"

http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archives/speeches/1988/031888d.htm

Below is the actual text of the Executive Order establishing the “Working Group on Financial Markets”, by President REAGAN on March 18, 1988. The Working Group was primarily a response to the October, 1987 “mini-crash” for the purpose of promoting the “goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence...”

According to the Executive Order, the Working Group consists of four major components:

1. US Secretary of Treasury
2. Chairman of FED
3. Chairman of SEC
4. Chairman of CFTC

(or the designees of the above institutions).

The Order designates the US Secretary of the Treasury as the Chairman of the “Working Group”.

DATE: 03-18-88
31 -- Money and Finance

Working Group on Financial Markets

By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Establishment.

(a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:

(1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;

(2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;

(3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and

(4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.

(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee, shall be the Chairman of the Working Group.

Sec. 2. Purposes and Functions.

(a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:

(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and

(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.

(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.

(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes.

Sec. 3. Administration.

(a) The heads of Executive departments, agencies, and independent instrumentalities shall, to the extent permitted by law, provide the Working Group such information as it may require for the purpose of carrying out this Order.

(b) Members of the Working Group shall serve without additional compensation for their work on the Working Group.

(c) To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefor, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions.

The provisions of Executive Order 12631 of Mar. 18, 1988, appear at 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559, unless otherwise noted.

***************

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/willettalway030102.html

excerpt:

The PPT and the SBB
Unlike the America plunge protection team, which tends to undertake market manipulations incognito, the Japanese stock buying body's sole purpose is to openly support the financial markets. Furthermore, there is considerable doubt as to whether or not the body's mandate is to simply cushion the blow as banks continue to sell-off their enormous holdings (the original concept for its formation), or if it is attempting to underpin a stock market that would otherwise deservedly fall regardless of such bank sales. To be sure, the rhetoric from the body's creators has been that the markets must stop falling:

"We must halt this fall in shares. It's like diarrhea, we must stop it. The stock-buying body was set up precisely to absorb such selling (offloading of cross-shareholdings by banks). If February is such a month, there is no excuse for not functioning at that crucial time." Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokaw – Feb 7

"We agreed that the market's current level is clearly undervalued and needs to be corrected" Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's economic adviser Heizo Takenaka – Feb 15

The phrases 'we must halt this fall in shares', and 'the market's current level is clearly undervalued' do not appear to be 'defensive only' mantras. Rather, the new body is being portrayed, at least by those who believe the very purpose of the SBB is 'suspect', as an active agent against any further stock market declines. The question is, is the SSB trying to save a market that is falling for the wrong reasons, or is it only glossing over the deep-rooted structural inefficiencies which have caused the markets to decline in the first place? The SBB, and to a lesser extent the PPT, would certainly like use to think it is the former rather than the latter.

...more...

**********************
http://www.guardian.co.uk/wtccrash/story/0,1300,552568,00.html

Fed to prop up Wall St

Shadowy committee ready to pour billions into stock markets to avert shares meltdown

Special report: Terrorism in the US

Richard Wachman and Jamie Doward
Sunday September 16, 2001
The Observer


The US Federal Reserve and Wall Street's powerful investment banks are preparing to spend billions of dollars to support the US stock market, which opens this week for the first time since last Tuesday's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

A secretive committee - the Working Group on Financial Markets, dubbed 'the plunge protection team' - includes bankers as well as representatives of the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and the US Treasury. It is ready to co-ordinate intervention by the Federal Reserve on an unprecedented scale.

The Fed, supported by the banks, will buy equities from mutual funds and other institutional sellers if there is evidence of panic selling in the wake of last week's carnage.

The authorities are determined to avert a worldwide slump in share prices like the crashes of 1987 or 1929. Investment banks and their broking subsidiaries are to block short-selling by speculators and hedge funds by making it hard for them to obtain prices on favourable terms.

...more...

[54anickel]

96. What’s Moving The Markets?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/appel/dec022005.html

November 27, 2005 - In the brief period since President Bush announced his choice for the new Federal Reserve Board Chairman, a number of major financial markets have been dramatically affected. The purpose of this essay is to explore whether the hand of Alan Greenspan or his likely replacement, Ben Bernanke, were behind them. Or, are the forces driving these normally divergent markets in the same direction simply the result of the investment community’s expression of support and agreement at the change of guard at the Fed, or is some other force at work?

snip>

Since Ben Bernanke’s nomination, the world has experienced a rarely witnessed event. What is so amazing is the fact that these major markets are driven by varying and opposing forces, yet they are together trending higher. I cannot state that it is unprecedented. However, after each had sufficiently digested the news, these four crucial markets moved higher in tandem. By acting in this fashion they are defying both historical market relationships, conventional wisdom, and common sense.

The U.S. dollar and gold tend to move in opposition to one another. This is due to gold’s historic negative correlation with the dollar. U.S. common stocks and bonds were in defined downtrends. Yet, Bernanke’s nomination seemed to virtually simultaneously put wind behind the sails of all of these primary American markets. This may only be a fleeting phenomenon, but if not, how and why are we witnessing this seemingly surreal event?

One belief is that Alan Greenspan orchestrated the market advances. Given his long tenure as Fed chairman I am certain that he would like to leave his watch with the markets calm. Stronger equity, bond and dollar markets that carried through his departure, would certainly make his exit more fitting for what the American Public would expect of the Maestro. It would also please Greenspan as it would give future historians few negatives to discuss when describing his legacy.

more...

[54anickel]

42. The Dollar Repatration Conjob (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie120205.html

The Amendment for Jobs Creation Act is a classic misnomer, a fraud, nothing but a sweet corporate welfare conjob. The only job in this scheme is "conjob" for sure. Few if any new jobs were created, as over $200 billion have been repatriated to date. Planned to generate new jobs and create new business, the legislation has instead been a bonanza for big corporations to bring home vast sums of money. The record shows the bulk of foreign funds having been devoted to stock buybacks, sure to reinforce executive stock options. The bill is also known as the Homeland Investment Act, a more appropriate name, since homebound funds have been invested for sure, just not for business purposes. They have largely gone toward financial securities in one form or another.

ABSENCE OF DEPRECIATION WRITEOFFS
Numerous big names can be cited among companies committed to large scale stock buybacks, led by Intel at $25 billion, Time Warner at $12.5 billion, DuPont at $5 billion, and Honeywell at $3 billion. In stark complement to this fund repatriation is the absence of fixed business investment, which has led to big corporate cash increases in corporate balance sheets. Take note, that since the end of 3Q2004 through 3Q2005, capital depreciation among non-financial firms has gone down a shocking 22%, from $830 billion to $648 billion. Where did the money go? Stock buybacks have soared by 51% over 2004 to $346 billion. In all, buybacks, dividends, and cash mergers have grown by 49% since 2004. Of S&P firms, 59% have hiked dividends, for a 12% total increase since 2004. Major questions arise about whether such practices are the best usage of company cash. Where is the job hiring?

Thomson Financial says 2005 marks the largest year for corporate stock buybacks since the frothy days of the late 1990 decade. Therein lies the fraud regarding the intent and spirit of the legislation to create jobs. Well, perhaps the executive stock options will result in some brisk trade among brokers for second homes, luxury boats, and vacations to the Caribbean! The end effect is for a false lift to stock prices from liquidity alone, not value. A notable reduction in capital investment by US corporations is the main reason for the vast accumulation of corporate cash. Attractive investments with strong potential for profit are few. Shareholders are increasingly vocal to improve stock prices. Executive stock options are surely pleasing to corporate officers. Buybacks are happening in most industries, not only among technology firms.

BOND REVENGE
To the dismay of bondholders, brisk corporate stock buybacks are likely to continue. For example, DuPont saw its credit ratings cut two notches immediately after it announced plans to buy back $5 billion in stock. A JPMorgan research report claims that marked increase in the pace and scale of shareholder initiatives have had "negative consequences for credit investors... More companies are seeking to offset the ill-will engendered by their poor share price performances by cozying up to their disgruntled shareholders."

According to an institutional shareholder advisory firm, the wave of buybacks today is being driven by the large amount of cash on company balance sheets and by activist hedge funds demanding returned capital to investors. "Hedge funds want to see an instant boost in the valuation, and the quickest way to accomplish that is buybacks. A lot of companies are doing larger than normal buyback programs in order to please hedge funds." One must attribute a colossal shortfall in fixed business investment, the above cited 22% comedown in the last four quarters for capital depreciation, as the primary impetus behind balance sheet health, not operational profitability!!! The less equipment they purchase, the less they depreciate, the higher the unprotected earnings and profits. Here is the trend laid out. In inflation adjusted terms, fixed business investment fell by 4.2% in 2002, fell by 9.2% in 2003, and grows only by 1.3% in 2004. Another point to consider is that flush corporate balance sheets could have been used in part to purchase US Treasurys, adding to the conundrum. The major point to emphasize is that the extra money is going to financial securities, not plant & equipment, and certainly not R&D. They are not investing in the future of their companies, but rather are pumping up the value of their companies. This huge distinction highlights the phenomenon at work for some time. The financial sector tail is wagging the economic dog.

more...

[UpInArms]

43. PIEHOLE ALERT:

10:48am 12/02/05 BUSH: 'THIS ECONOMY IS IN GOOD SHAPE'

10:49am 12/02/05 BUSH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRO-GROWTH POLICIES

10:47am 12/02/05 BUSH: U.S. ECONOMY GAINING STRENGTH, MOMENTUM

[Zynx]

86. Sure enough the market declined just before 11 eastern.

Why does he have to talk?!

[UpInArms]

44. 10:50 EST Hearing the Voice of Doom, markets fall in response

Dow 10,899.70 -12.87 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,269.52 +2.35 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,263.78 -0.89 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.533 +0.12 (+0.27%)

NYSE Volume 564,294,000
Nasdaq Volume 564,668,000

10:35AM: The indices have managed to clear the flat line, hovering just above it as several sectors climb onto positive ground. Tech's (+0.4%) rebound lends the most support, and can be largely credited to running semiconductors. Yesterday, the PHLX Semiconductor Index hit its best level in three and a half years - and extends the 4.1% it registered with its current 1.1% rise. Over the course of November, that index jumped 11.3%. As a side note, Briefing.com holds an Overweight rating on the Technology sector.NYSE Adv/Dec 1385/1525, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1280/1334

[54anickel]

54. Buddy-buddy Loans and the SEC

http://www.cfo.com/blogs/index.cfm/l_detail/5268487?f=home_todayinfinance

Insider loans made big news in the recent round of corporate scandals. But in its first enforcement action pursuant to the Sarbanes-Oxley ban on such loans, the Securities and Exchange Commission made very little of the matter.

In the fall of 2003, two erstwhile executives of Stelmar Shipping Ltd. — a foreign private issuer whose securities were listed on the New York Stock Exchange — each approved an interest-free loan to the other, according to the commission. Chief financial officer Stamatis Molaris allegedly approved a £100,000 ($169,400) loan from Stelmar to chief executive officer Peter Goodfellow, who soon after allegedly approved a loan from Stelmar to Molaris for $125,000. Although the terms of the loans required that they be repaid in January 2004, it was only on February 9 — while Stelmar's annual audit was in progress, noted the commission — that CFO Molaris repaid his loan. CEO Goodfellow repaid his loan the next day "in response to the auditors' queries," wrote the SEC.

snip>

But what punishment from the SEC, which found that the Goodfellow and Molaris caused Stelmar to violate Section 13(k) of the Exchange Act (a new provision added via Sarbanes-Oxley) by treating each other to some interest-free spending money? The two former executives "each consented to the issuance of a cease-and-desist order without admitting or denying the findings."

Although Goodfellow and Molaris were playing with small change compared with the corporate looting that inspired the ban on insider loans, the SEC's penalty seems mighty forgiving. Indeed, the predictability of punishment by the commission has many observers discussing "Fine Time at the SEC."

[UpInArms]

55. With Cox and the Party of Corruption running the SEC why would

anyone think that anything would happen to the Republican Corporation cronies and the corrupt lobbyists that the corrupt politicians "need" to make government "work"?

[54anickel]

57. But they really need each other for government to function - honest

It says so right here!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x176966#176971

Lawmakers and lobbyists need each other for government to function. Lobbyists provide expertise and often raise issues that require attention. But the past five years have seen a sharp rise in lobbying that's in direct proportion to Congress's spending ever more of taxpayers' money.

:eyes: Which gov't? Certainly not the one we all learned about in Civics class that taught "of the people, for the people, by the people".

[UpInArms]

59. Dimson sings after he hears that 10 Marines were killed near Falluja

"U.S. President George W. Bush joins country singer Cheryl White in a Christmas song at the end of the Christmas Pageant of Peace on the Ellipse in front of the White House in Washington December 1, 2005. Bush briefly addressed the crowd before leading in the lighting of the National Christmas tree. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque"

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/12/02/iraq.main/index.html

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A roadside bomb Thursday killed 10 Marines while they were on "foot patrol near Falluja," the Marine Corps said Friday.

The Marines were from Regimental Combat Team 8, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward).

Eleven Marines were also wounded in the incident, and four of them have not yet returned to duty.

...more...

[54anickel]

63. Strange these details come out a day late again. Was there anything

going on yesterday that would give them reason to hold this back? :shrug:

Things must be pretty bad if Iraq is not letting ANYONE into the country until after the elections.

[UpInArms]

66. I assume they held this information back so that Dimson could "trumpet"

the "booming economy".

I believe that was a headline yesterday - I'll go look for it.

[UpInArms]

67. White House trumpets GDP outlook

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1958226&mesg_id=1959363

UpInArms (1000+ posts) Thu Dec-01-05 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #68
69. White House trumpets GDP outlook


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6A39DCD1%2DAEEC%2D4FB7%2D8EBE%2D4A26A55FA147%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Eager for some good news as President Bush's approval rating languishes, the White House on Thursday rushed out, ahead of schedule, an updated economic forecast that projects strong growth and low inflation over the next several years.

The Bush Administration now forecasts the economy will likely grow 3.5% this year, up from the 3.4% estimated by the Office of Management and Budget in July.

The White House economic forecast is typically released in late January along with the budget for the new fiscal year.

"This week's estimate for the third quarter of this year, the administration's forecast and the consensus of private forecasters all show strong economic growth. The economy has weathered the hurricanes and volatile energy prices," said Matthew Slaughter, a member of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers.

For 2006, the OMB still sees growth at 3.4% from the fourth quarter to fourth quarter. And growth will inch lower over the next few years to settle at a 3.1% rate by 2011.

...more with another Chopper Ben disclaimer...

[UpInArms]

68. White House on Thursday rushed out, ahead of schedule

from my post 66 of today and post 69 of yesterday -

that's right:

rushed out, ahead of schedule

to get ahead of 10 dead marines and 11 wounded marines (4 not returned to duty)

[54anickel]

71. Thanks UIA, I knew you'd be on top of things (as usual) and I was out

yesterday. So, once again they tried to hide this for the weekend news dump. At least CNN brought it out early in the day. Have to see how much, if any, play it gets.

[UpInArms]

69. I wish some creative (hint hint)

person would come up with a montage of Dimson lighting the tree, singing and the coffins of our military with the headlines and date - December 1 on it.

[AnneD]

90. Hey 54anickel,

in Texas our texts are heavily edited, but I do vaguely seem to remember the same civics lesson...

[54anickel]

93. Do they even teach Civics anymore?...eom

[AnneD]

103. It is called

Political Science anymore...but that science thing could get them into trouble.

[54anickel]

64. Costco CEO Finds Decency Is Compatible With Profitability

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1961352

[UpInArms]

72. 12:18 EST running for the exits

Dow 10,878.63 -33.94 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,266.40 -0.77 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,263.41 -1.26 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.525 +0.04 (+0.09%)

NYSE Volume 993,044,000
Nasdaq Volume 901,296,000

12:00PM : Stuck within a very narrow range that surrounds the flat line, the stock market's major averages continue to trade in mixed fashion as they begin the session's second half. Despite a good November employment report, buyers have not really left the sidelines and are perhaps more focused on locking in some of the profits rendered by yesterday's broad-based rally and the indices' average 4.1% gain last month. With respect to the jobs data, the report was by and large in-line with expectations. Non-farm payrolls rose slightly more than estimated (215K), and continue to reflect strong hiring trends. The unemployment rate held at 5%, and average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.2%. The data joins the past two week's list of better than expected economic news, and confirms the backdrop of solid growth amid contained inflation, and overall strong underlying economic conditions. On the flip side, the Treasury market has taken a bearish cue from the strong data, and today's report helped fan inflationary fears that lead to further Fed tightening speculation. The 10-year is yielding 4.53%, and continues to weigh upon sentiment within the equity market. Spirited leadership has not emerged. Five of the ten sectors are booking gains, but leading 0.3% rises in the Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are not strong enough to pull the averages onto solid ground. With respect to the former, retailers stand as a pocket of strength following yesterday's stream of November same-store sales data that were consistent with solid holiday spending expectations. Better than anticipated results from Starbucks (SBUX 31.82 +0.68) and Walgreens (WAG 46.55 +0.44) have helped carry that sense forward today. WAG, for its part, has helped push the Staples (+0.1%) sector higher. Reports that Ford (F 8.12 +0.02) may close five plants have offered some further support to the Discretionary sector. Due to extended strength in semiconductors, Technology hangs onto +0.2%. The PHLX average, which hit a 3.5 year high yesterday and registered over 11% in November, is up about 0.7% today. A particular source of support is OmniVision Technologies (OVTI 21.67 +3.42), which posted better than expected record earnings last night and reflects Briefing.com's broader view of the Tech sector. Novell (NOVL 8.10 +0.43) similarly delivered an upside report, and contributes to the Tech's positive stance. Just as gains have been limited, losses have been similarly kept in check. Industrials and Telecom lead the way lower with 0.4% declines, and Materials and Utilities respectively levy -0.2% and -0.3%. Separately, Fed Chairman Greenspan recently spoke in London regarding the deficit. While his comments may have fed worries over further rate hikes, his speech essentially did not elicit anything that the market does not already understand. NYSE Adv/Dec 1472/1600, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1318/1519

[UpInArms]

78. Layoffs kneecap naysayers

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_3270761

Layoffs are an inevitable feature of corporate life, thanks to globalization, technology, changing business fundamentals, corporate scandals, misconceived business plans, greedy executives, Wall Street profiteers and (write your favorite reason here).

The trick is to avoid ending up on the corporate layoff list, which may be unofficially conceived long before cuts are even anticipated.

"Layoffs provide a wonderful opportunity to clean house," said former human- resources executive Cynthia Shapiro. "If (managers) plan it correctly, they can get rid of all their troublemakers."

Have you openly criticized your boss? Disparaged the company on a blog? Gossiped about office politics? Filed a workers' compensation claim or sexual-harassment complaint? Requested medical or maternity leave? Used all of your sick days? Sought personal bankruptcy protection? Suffered a messy divorce? Been a general nuisance around the office?

"They will put you at the top of the layoff list," claims Shapiro, based in Los Angeles. "They will just remove you - problem solved."

<snip>

Things you may tell an HR person in confidence - like your need for help with a drug or alcohol problem - may be used against you come layoff season, Shapiro claims. She's written a book, "Corporate Confidential: 50 Secrets Your Company Doesn't Want You to Know - And What to Do About Them," published in September. She says it's part of her penance. She also said she's no longer doing lucrative Fortune 500 consulting gigs. Instead, she's busy with less-certain, lower-paying counseling sessions with individual workers needing help.

...more...

[Kolesar]

83. Yikes...eom

[AnneD]

92. What?

You were suprised? If you have ever tried to unionize....this is 'old'news. :hi: B Avenger

[54anickel]

94. I believe I'm a living testimony to that!

Was considered one of those model employees, worked long hard hours, lots of promos, big raises and always rave reviews, never had a sick day. However, I did take 6 weeks FMLA to care for my dying father under hospice care and I was never one to mince words with the boss if something seemed amiss. That was once considered a virtue at my company until they brought in all new management from one of those "big corporations" and our business practices become more and more questionable if not downright unethical. Learned to keep my mouth shut a little too late. All of us old-timers with scruples got it on the big round of lay-offs.

[AnneD]

104. ITA....

honesty and integrity are not to be tolerated in the workplace (just look at the number of CEO's doing perp walks these days). That's ok 54anickel, you will get a nice star in your crown when you get to heaven

[UpInArms]

79. 1:01 EST numbers, blather and bye!

Dow 10,866.47 -46.10 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,262.33 -4.84 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,261.94 -2.73 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.517 -0.04 (-0.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,172,529,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,032,570,000

12:30PM: Fading from the morning's range, each of the indices sink lower. The Financial sector has relinquished its modest gain that had helped limit the broader market's slide - and now imposes a 0.1% loss. Partly responsible are banks, which had trended higher but have since fallen to the flat line. The rate sensitive sector isn't helped by weakness amid Treasuries, which has pushed the 10-year (-01/32) to a 4.52% yield. Relative weakness in heavyweights Citigroup (C 48.67 -0.18), American Express (AXP 51.71 -0.28), and AIG (AIG 67.40 -0.41) works to stunt the sector while simultaneously pressuring the Dow. NYSE Adv/Dec 1547/1581, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1292/1576

You guys/gals/lurkers/posters will have to keep the nasty daily details flowing!

:hi:

[54anickel]

95. ECB Comes Through (sort of)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=414

Good day... As I reported in the closing paragraph of yesterday's Pfennig, the ECB raised rates by .25%. This was the first increase in rates by the European Central Bank in 5 years. While this rate increase was widely expected, the accompanying statement by Jean-Claude Trichet is what the markets focused on. In it, he stated that policy maker's aren't planning a series of rate increases but will be watching future economic data. So, instead of rallying the Euro vs. the US$, the markets sold the Euro back off to end the day around 1.17. I believe the ECB will continue to raise rates, and Trichet's statement was simply aimed at keeping the Euro from rising too quickly. The important point is that rates in Europe are finally beginning to increase, while rates here in the US are getting near the top.

snip>

I have been expecting the FOMC to continue to raise rates until Bernanke takes over in January of next year. He will then have the opportunity to pause the rate increases, giving the economy a boost if needed. So, with the ECB and the FOMC both raising rates at a .25% clip, I don't see where interest rate differentials will have much effect on the currency markets. We could see the Euro range trade for the rest of the year between 1.16 and 1.18. But, when the FOMC does decide to pause rates, the markets will realize that the ECB has many more increases left than the FOMC and the Euro should increase in the 1st or 2nd quarter of next year.

The Yen continued to fall yesterday as the Bank of Japan now stands alone in the Super Easy Money camp. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki told reporters in Tokyo the currency is "moving mostly in line with fundamentals," raising speculation officials favor a weaker currency. Losses in the Yen will probably be limited after a government report yesterday showed Japanese investors were net seller of overseas bonds for the first week in 10, suggesting demand for foreign debt securities may be waning. We have been talking about this eventual move away from US debt by the Asian investors for years. As the Japanese economy continues to improve, investors will start keeping more of their investments in Japan instead of sending them all to the US. With the yen trading above 120, I would have to think investors will continue to bring their investments home and exchange their US$ back into Yen at these cheap rates. The Yen will not continue to be this undervalued.

The commodity currencies continue to outshine all others as metal prices increase. The South African Rand gained to its highest level in two months as the price of metals that make up a fifth of exports rose. Gold finally broke through the $500 level and traded at its highest level in 22 years. As long as gold continues to rise, the Rand should hold its value as gold is South Africa's largest export.

Investors in our first two Gold MarketSafe CDs have to be smiling about the $500 gold. You still have two more weeks to get invested in December's Gold CD so contact the desk if you need more information. THis is an excellent way to take advantage of the rising gold price but still maintain FDIC insurance and get a garuntee against loss!

more...

[54anickel]

97. Gambler Nation

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=49076

In a recent trip to visit relatives in Pennsylvania, the following conversation was overheard as family and friends were catching up on how their children were faring in life. "Our oldest son was in an accident a while back - he's recovering, but slowly", she said.

Then she paused, rolled her eyes, and continued, "And our youngest quit his job and gambles full-time now - on his computer. He says he's able to support his wife and their newborn, but it's only been a couple months."

Talking about their offspring is something that aging parents are wont to do - sometimes not so much to share or inform, but just to have something to discuss. There is much to be learned by paying close attention to conversations like this - sometimes the body language speaks louder than the words.

It seems that the older generation has much to say about what the younger generation is doing these days, but often times they are not heard.

more... :eyes:

[54anickel]

98. 3:42 headin into the close and headin up

Dow 10,889.36 -23.21 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,272.45 +5.28 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,266.00 +1.33 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 45.19 -0.02 (-0.04%)
NYSE Volume 1,852,287,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,593,595,000


3:30PM: While still in the red, the blue chip indices have inched higher; the Nasdaq has just cleared the flat line. Bonds, meanwhile, have ticked back south. With respect to San Francisco Fed President Yellen's comments, her assertion that the the end of the Fed's tightening cycle is not nearby counters the market's recent supposition and has weighed a bit on today's proceedings.NYSE Adv/Dec 1468/1792, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1311/1689

3:05PM: Heading back towards session lows, the indices show no sign of recovering. The Treasury market, however, has stabilized at the unchanged mark - with the 10-year, five-year, and 30-year respectively yielding 4.51%, 4.44%, and 4.71%. That market took a bearish cue from today's employment report that capped a week of solid economic data, but the response to some hawkish Fed speak seems to be muted. San Francisco Fed President Yellen, best remembered lately for comments that a neutral range for fed funds is in the 4.5% to 5.5% range, said this afternoon that inflation still needs to be watched and that the Fed will review policy statement wording. NYSE Adv/Dec 1479/1752, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1295/1681

Gotta run for the day! Have a great weekend! :hi:

[ozymandius]

100. Bye 54anickel.

Have a wonderful weekend. I hope your illness is going away post haste.

:hi: ozy

[ozymandius]

99. Since I haven't posted since early this morning...

here we are nearing the close.

3:50
Dow 10,886.07 -26.50 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,271.94 +4.77 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,265.69 +1.02 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 45.19 -0.02 (-0.04%)
NYSE Volume 1,896,682,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,630,240,000

3:30PM: While still in the red, the blue chip indices have inched higher; the Nasdaq has just cleared the flat line. Bonds, meanwhile, have ticked back south. With respect to San Francisco Fed President Yellen's comments, her assertion that the the end of the Fed's tightening cycle is not nearby counters the market's recent supposition and has weighed a bit on today's proceedings.NYSE Adv/Dec 1468/1792, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1311/1689

[ozymandius]

101. closing numbers

Dow 10,877.51 -35.06 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,273.37 +6.20 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,265.08 +0.41 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 45.19 -0.02 (-0.04%)
NYSE Volume 2,083,545,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,758,499,000

blather forthcoming...

[ozymandius]

102. blather

Despite the good November employment report that topped the week's list of better than expected data, the indices spent most of the session in the red. Considerable profits registered during yesterday's broad-based rally, not to mention the average 4.1% booked by the indices last month, perhaps gave investors incentive to consolidate. With respect to the jobs data, the report was essentially in-line with expectations. Continuing to reflect strong hiring trends, non-farm payrolls rose slightly more than anticipated (215K). The unemployment rate held at 5%, and average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.2%. Joining two week's worth of solid data from nearly every corner of the economy, the report helps confirm the backdrop of strong underlying economic conditions that feature growth amid contained inflation. Conversely, the Treasury market took a bearish cue from the data; today's report appeared to have helped fan inflationary fears that lead to further Fed tightening speculation. Comments out of San Francisco Fed President Yeller - that the Fed's tightening cycle is not nearby - did not help matters. Her assertion countered the market's recent supposition, and perhaps weighed on trading in both markets. Leadership was absent from bell to bell. Healthcare's 0.4% gain provided the most support, and was largely the result of an upgrade-induced rise in Abbott Labs (ABT 38.50 +0.87) and strength in Wyeth (WYE 43.20 +2.00) following the FTC's decision not to file an objection regarding a proposed patent settlement. Takeover rumors surrounding Boston Scientific (BSX 27.32 +0.64) catalyzed some further upside. The Discretionary sector trailed just behind, and had managed to maintain its footing due to relative strength in homebuilders and retailers. The latter group rose following yesterday's stream of November same-store sales data that were consistent with solid holiday spending expectations; better than anticipated results from Starbucks (SBUX 31.87 +0.73) and Walgreens (WAG 46.25 +0.14) helped carry that sense forward today. Reports that Ford (F 8.14 +0.04) may close five plants offered the sector some further support. Due to extended strength in semiconductors, Technology (+0.1%) kept its nose above water and helped the Nasdaq do the same. The PHLX average, which hit a 3.5 year high yesterday after registering over 11% in November, added about 0.7% today. A particular source of support was surging OmniVision Technologies (OVTI 21.56 +3.31), which posted better than expected record earnings last night and reinforces Briefing.com's Overweight rating on the Tech sector. Similarly delivering an upside report, Novell (NOVL 8.44 +0.77) served as an addition crutch. Just as gains were kept in check, losses were likewise limited. Telecom (-0.7%) led the way lower, followed by modest declines in Industrials (-0.4%), Materials (-0.2%), and Utilities (-0.2%). Consumer Staples, Energy, and Financials closed at the flat line. Separately, Fed Chairman Greenspan spoke in London regarding the deficit this morning. While his comments, prior to Yeller's, may have fed worries over further rate hikes, his speech ultimately did not offer anything that the market does not already understand. NYSE Adv/Dec 1665/1607, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1620/1408