STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 25 November

[ozymandius]

Friday November 25, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 58 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1800 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1499 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1461
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 23, 2005

Dow... 10,916.09 +44.66 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq... 2,259.98 +6.42 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,265.61 +4.38 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.47% +0.05 (+1.04%)
Gold future... 496.40 -0.60 (-0.12%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. Trading ends at 1pm today.

All eyes will be focused on post-Thanksgiving shopping. This time will be used for a crystal ball for consumer confidence and retail performance in the months ahead.

[ozymandius]

2. Just looking?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Investors will be watching the nation's shopping malls Friday -- if they're not in them themselves -- for an indication of how the 2005 holiday retail season will go.

U.S. stocks were set for a flat open, with futures mixed at 5:30 a.m. ET. Stock trading is likely to be the lightest of the year, simply because the markets will close three hours early, at 1 p.m. ET.

Friday is the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season, with customers already crowding stores in the wee hours of the morning seeking the big bargains touted in circulars. The hubbub underlies a key fact in the retail industry: as much as 50 percent of annual sales and profits are generated in November and December.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/25/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[UpInArms]

12. Retailers in U.S. Use Giveaways and Gimmicks on Black Friday

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=acx1cfpRwvhE&refer=us

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Target Corp. is offering wake-up calls this morning from Kermit the Frog to entice shoppers to its stores. Sears, Roebuck & Co. is giving $10 gift cards to the first 200 customers at each of its more than 2,400 locations.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, is opening at 5 a.m., an hour earlier than last year, with DVDs priced as low as $3.44 and a Hewlett-Packard Co. desktop computer available for $398.

Gimmicks, giveaways, price cuts and online shopping may help retailers generate holiday sales growth of as much as 6 percent this year, according to the National Retail Federation. The season starts the day after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday because that's when many retailers become profitable for the year. It was the biggest sales day in 2003 and the second- biggest last year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Black Friday ``is a very important gauge,'' said analyst Michael Cox at Piper Jaffray & Co. in Minneapolis. ``It gives us the temperature of what consumers are thinking right now. With Wal-Mart starting the promotional cadence earlier, I think it will be even more important this time around.''

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

ECONOMIC AND MARKET PULSE

General Motors Corp. announced Monday that they will be closing 12 facilities in North America and cutting 30,000 jobs by 2008 due to declining sales and rising health care costs. This move would cut more than a fourth of its North American manufacturing jobs, which is 17% of its 173,000 hourly workforce (the average hourly worker is around 49 years old), with the move being called “devastating” by the United Auto Workers. GM is not alone as Ford Motor Co. announced last week that it plans to eliminate about 4,000 jobs in North America early next year in its own restructuring plan.

-cut-

To put things into perspective, it’s no wonder Toyota has been soaring while GM has been falling with Toyota having the most productive plants in North America, operating at 107% capacity in 2004 according to Greg Gardner of Harbour Consulting, which measures manufacturing productivity.

These aren’t the only troubling economic news coming out lately. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC-UBS), which reports a weekly tally of store sales, said in a special consumer question that 59% of those polled said high gasoline prices are reducing their discretionary spending. Interestingly, this percentage is greater than the 54% level in late September when consumers were faced with gas prices at $3. High gas prices, shaky consumer confidence, and an uncertain jobs market are clouding the outlook for holiday sales.

-cut-

Looking at leading economic indicators also points to an economic slowdown, troubling news for the stock market which typically peaks before the business cycle does. The October job growth proved disappointing as non-farm payrolls rose a much smaller-than-expected 56,000. The overall weakness was centered in service-producing jobs, which rose only 7,000. Retail trade declined 5,000 with a sharp 8,000 decline at auto dealers whose sales suffered badly in the month. Leisure jobs were especially hit hard, down 18,000.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Oil Prices Slide After Inventory Report

NEW YORK - Energy prices drifted lower Wednesday after a government report showed the nation's crude oil inventories are growing even as demand for some fuels inched forward.

Crude futures had rebounded from five-month lows earlier this week as a storm approaching the northeastern states stoked expectations for greater heating-oil use in the region, the world's largest market for that distillate.

Traders are waiting to see how demand will respond to the storm, but the Energy Department said Wednesday that heating oil stockpiles grew 2.4 percent last week and are almost 10 percent above year-ago levels. Distillate production was also 0.2 percent higher last week, matching the rise in demand over the past four weeks.

The department also reported crude oil reserves expanded 0.1 percent from the week before, standing at 321.8 million barrels. Those inventories are well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, the report said.

more

[UpInArms]

11. Chavez embarrasses Bush with cheap fuel for US poor

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/11/24/wchavez24.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/11/24/ixnewstop.html

Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, has pulled off his greatest public relations coup yet in his campaign to irritate the Bush administration with a deal to supply cheap fuel to thousands of poor residents of Boston and New York.

To the annoyance of many in Washington, Citgo Petroleum Corporation, a company controlled by the Venezuelan government, is to supply more than 12 million gallons of heating oil at 40 per cent below market prices.

The deal is one of the most high-profile moves yet in Mr Chavez's bid to market his "21st-century socialism" using his country's oil wealth.

While it will not change many minds in Washington about his populist and autocratic regime, the government in Caracas hopes that it will help to stake out Mr Chavez's claim as the coming leader of an anti-capitalist Latin America.

Mr Chavez, who once dubbed President George W Bush a "genocidal madman" and led a huge anti-American protest earlier this month, first proposed his fuel offer in August when oil prices were at a record high after Hurricane Katrina.

...more...

[ozymandius]

23. Pat Robertson will be screaming for Chaves's death for sure!

How dare he cripple the profits of benevolent, gentle private oil companies and offer cheap fuel to keep the poor from freezing to death! :sarcasm:

[54anickel]

38. Heh, speaking of Patwa, this guy has got to be one of his followers

I can't believe some of the stuff they link to at 321gold! Interesting "fundie" perspective of the Fed and money in general. Mostly batshit :crazy: but an interesting read.

http://www.omegaletter.com/articles.asp?ArticleID=5788

snip>

The chairmanship of the Fed is the closest thing America has to a king, and during his tenure, his every expression of thought on the economy has all the authority of any Caesar of antiquity. A word from him can crush a dynasty, change an era, or spawn economic royalty.

snip>

But it is a fait accompli, and the existing global economy now depends on it. Turning our economy back from a debit-based economy to a barter economy is as possible as turning a pickle back into a cucumber.

A debit-based economy REQUIRES high deficits to make it work. Investment, production and job growth DEPEND on high national debt. Reducing the debt weakens the overall economy. Those are contradictory-sounding facts, but they are nonetheless true.

snip>

The creation and existence of the Federal Reserve system is an absolute necessity to the fulfillment of Bible prophecy in the last days. As such, it serves as one of those examples of the differences between the knowledge of 'right and wrong' and the knowledge of 'good and evil'.

snip>

Eliminating cash as a form of economic exchange would not be a hard sell to the public. Without untraceable cash, the drug trade would collapse overnight. So would many kinds of crime. What is a burglar going to do with his loot? Open a warehouse? It would put international counterfeiters out of business, strangle off revenue to rogue states like North Korea, and cripple international terrorism.

The elimination of cash is an idea whose time has come. Where could Osama bin Laden use a debit card?

more...

[UpInArms]

41. that's a hoot!

Those are contradictory-sounding facts, but they are nonetheless true.

Translated: Since it doesn't make sense at all, it must be true!

[54anickel]

44. Makes you wonder if Patwa isn't writing this stuff under an alias. Sure

sounds like him. God created the Fed?


The oldest lie in human history is the one from the Garden of Eden whereby Satan promises humanity the knowledge of good and evil. 'Good and evil' are not actions -- the are outcomes. Outcomes are known only to God. ... And Pat and W of course.

The Federal Reserve system is an evil planned by evil men for evil reasons by any reasonable definition of the word, but it is a necessary evil to God's unfolding plan. And God's will is the very definition of 'good'. So, while the system is evil, God uses it for good. So there is no need to fight the system - it exists because it must.... So get all the money you can get your hands on, through whatever means, and send it all to the Patwa Fund!

:crazy: Nuttier than a fruitcake.

Edit to add:

Wonder if it's that sort of thinking that comes into play when you read about scams perpetrated by "good Christian folk"? Like the article UIA posted in LBN about the bible study group teamed up with a lawyer to scam insurance companies.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1946119

[PassingFair]

46. Oh, thanks a LOT, 54......

I think my brain broke.

[54anickel]

47. Tee-hee, just messin' wich ya!...n/t

[ozymandius]

5. Jobless Claims Surge, Market Seeks Traction

WASHINGTON - The number of new people signing up for jobless benefits last week rose sharply, suggesting that the labor market is still trying to gain traction after being knocked by a trio of Gulf Coast hurricanes.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications for unemployment insurance jumped by a seasonally adjusted 30,000 to 335,000 for the week ending Nov. 19. In the prior week, new filings for jobless benefits registered a large decline.

Last week's increase left claims at their highest point since the middle of October. Economists were expecting claims to total around 312,000.

more

[ozymandius]

6. Stock futures flat, focus on retailers

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures pointed to a flat to slightly higher opening on Friday amid expectations the big Thanksgiving holiday shopping weekend will give a boost to retailers and help extend the market's rally.

"Black Friday" -- the day after Thanksgiving when traditionally strong sales can make retailers profitable for the year -- accounted for nearly 10 percent of holiday sales last year.

The world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - news), is expected to report preliminary November sales data later on Friday or Saturday. Wal-Mart sees a 3 percent to 5 percent sales increase at its U.S. stores open at least a year.

more

[4dsc]

7. What's the housing market updates??

I wish I could find the report from yesterday that stated mortgages are at their lowest levels since Jan of this year. I spoke with a realtor yesterday and he claimed refinances have all but dried up and very few mortgages are being taken out.

I know in Des Moines Iowa, many upper end houses($200,000+) are on the market and they are not moving!!

What's happening?? Is the housing bubble finally bursting??

[UpInArms]

14. US home loan applications fall as refinancing slumps

from Wednesday's SMW:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1944026&mesg_id=1944125

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-23T121713Z_01_N23448875_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week, dragged down by a slump in home refinancings which hit a 16-month low as interest rates remained close to their highest levels this year, industry trade group figures showed on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage application activity for the week ended Nov. 18 declined to 635.4, 3.4 percent below the previous week's level.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.26 percent last week, down 0.07 percentage point from the previous week's 6.33 percent, a 17-month high.

Last week's interest rate decline was the first slide in the 30-year fixed rate in four weeks. However, the rate was still substantially above its 2005 low of 5.47 percent in late June.

The MBA's purchase mortgage index fell 1.2 percent to 472.3. The index is considered a timely gauge on U.S. home sales.

The group's index of refinancing applications dropped 6.9 percent to 1,584.1.

<snip>

The refinancing index is down 17.4 percent compared with four weeks ago, and volume was at its lowest level since the week ended June 25, 2004 when the index reached 1,386.9, the MBA said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 91.69 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

Dollar Sun Rises Once Again

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5060&Itemid=39

One of the most common mistakes traders seem to make is position size. Most traders instantly size up their positions after only few successful trades that they were lucky to be involved in, and that is a bad mistake. Size is a double-edged sword, which can cut the trader with either edge, because size will not only magnify profits, but will also magnify loses. Another common mistake is increasing the size of the next position after a losing trade in an attempt to recover the losses. That is when the trader is most vulnerable, because he or she is not only emotional because of the loss, but also an increased size can push the account deeper into loss. As a trader I learned the hard way to bring my size down when my trades are not going my way, not the other way around, because when my trading is suffering, my account should not. Loss of capital will hinder the trader’s ability to recover the losses and eventually will force the trader out of the market. Size does matter when it comes to trading; initial position size must always reflect the size of the account. Please feel free to email me at [e-mail] with your comments.

...more...

Japan's MOF to buy back 12 trillion yen in JGBs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-25T083401Z_01_T202433_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-DEBT.XML

TOKYO, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Japan will tap 12 trillion yen ($100 billion) from a special fund to buy back government bonds in the year starting in April and help mend its tattered public finances, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday.

Japan's outstanding public debt, at 774 trillion yen ($6.5 trillion), is equivalent to 150 percent of gross domestic product, the highest ratio in the industrial world.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has been stepping up a drive to reduce that debt before the end of his term next September.

After a meeting with Koizumi, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said he wanted to use half of a special fund within the government's account for "zaito", or quasi-state agencies, to buy back debt.

The special fund guards the account against possible rises in interest rates, but the account has been shrinking due to government reforms of the agencies.

"This is an emergency measure and I have made the proposal to the prime minister," Tanigaki told reporters. "He said it was a good idea, for zaito reforms to help improve the fiscal balance," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. GM, Ford U.S. sales seen down again

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-11-23T213135Z_01_ROB376722_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-SALES.xml

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., Detroit's downhill racers, will post another big drop in their U.S. sales when they report November results next week, industry analysts said on Wednesday.

They said GM and Ford, which both saw their sales drop 23 percent in October compared with the same month a year ago, were likely to report November sales declines of as much as 15 percent.

The sales projections are adjusted for one more selling day in November this year and exclude the Detroit automakers' foreign brands.

By contrast, and despite weak industrywide results, Toyota Motor Corp. is expected to report a double-digit increase in sales, the analysts said in notes to clients.

They said Chrysler will also report a decline in sales, ending 19 consecutive months of year-over-year gains at the U.S. arm of Germany's DaimlerChrysler.

Like its crosstown rivals, Chrysler is hurting from what Merrill Lynch analyst John Casesa described as an "inhospitable" market for big trucks and sport utility vehicles.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. GM is now selling more cars and trucks in other countries than the US

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051125/BUSINESS01/511250504

For the first time in its history, General Motors Corp. is now selling more cars and trucks in other countries than it does in the United States, GM Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner told the Free Press.

This historic shift reflects both GM's dwindling share of the mature U.S. market and its promising position in China and other fast-growing Asian economies.

But despite strong sales growth overseas, Wagoner stressed that GM's future still depends largely on whether he can reverse huge losses in the North American auto market, where GM has lost $4.8 billion so far this year, triggering a plunge in its stock price and downgrades of its debt ratings to junk status.

"Our fate is going to be determined in the next three to five years on getting this business in the U.S. turned around and profitable," he said Wednesday during an hour-long interview in his 39th-floor office at GM's Renaissance Center headquarters.

"That's what's going to decide how good GM is going to be. And then I think, over time, it's going to be how well we use our global resources to take advantage of where there's growth," he said, two days after announcing plans to cut 30,000 jobs and halt production at 10 U.S. plants.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Japanese manufacturers lead automakers lower

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38681.4170097801-852217831&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Toyota Motor (TM) shares on Friday fell 2.4% to $98.40, leading a broad decline in the automotive sector amid mixed production results from Japan's top manufacturers. Toyota said its global output jumped 7.3% in October to 634,032 vehicles. Nissan Motors (NSANY) also fell more than 2% after the company said its worldwide production declined 2.9% from a year ago to 278,373 cars and trucks. Honda Motor (HMC) , which posted a slight increase for the month, lost 1.8% to $27.95. General Motors (GM) was the leading decliner among U.S. carmakers, off 1.4% at $23.19 ahead of next week's October industry sales results.

[UpInArms]

10. Broker accused of insider trading

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-11-24T003916Z_01_ROB402212_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-BUSINESSWEEK.xml

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - The FBI has arrested a former stockbroker and accused him of insider trading using stolen advance copies of Business Week magazine, according to a court complaint released on Wednesday.

David Pajcin, the ex-broker, was named in August in a separate civil case brought by securities regulators for his role in alleged trading misconduct and phony identities involving Reebok International (RBK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) options.

The latest complaint against Pajcin was filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan. It accused him of obtaining advance access to Business Week's Inside Wall Street column and buying 10 separate stocks ahead of the column's publication.

At a hearing late on Wednesday, Pajcin was released on a $500,000 personal recognizance bond that needs to be co-signed by four people and secured by $50,000 in cash or property.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Fired Md. Man Shoots Supervisors, Himself

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1342710

GLEN BURNIE, Md. Nov 23, 2005 — A fired employee shot two supervisors at a food distribution business Wednesday, then shot fatally himself in the head just outside the front door, authorities and the business owner said.

Police identified the gunman as Joseph A. Cobb, 54, of Point Pleasant.

The two victims, Raymond Himes Jr., 37, and Jack Helms, 49, were in stable condition with non-life-threatening injuries at the University of Maryland R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma Center in Baltimore, said Lt. David Waltemeyer, a police spokesman.

<snip>

The company had fired the shooter several weeks earlier, Waltemeyer said. According to Wagner, the man had been a truck driver for the company for about four years.

Police said investigators were still trying to determine a motive for the shootings.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. There isn't Anything Else Worth Owning, but Gold (Mogambo)

Don't remember seeing the Mogambo posted this week. Sorry if it's a dupe.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/nov232005.html

- Although Halloween is over, you wouldn't know it by looking at Total Fed Credit, the scary satanic wellspring of fiat money that is destroying our money, the economy and my sleep as it went up by $9.6 billion last week. If you could see me now you would probably laugh, as I am typing with one hand, clutching my chest in the throes of a painful heart attack with the other, while, in a burst of amazing Mogambo productivity (AMP), also gagging up blood in my outrage and shouting out of the window that our money is being killed, all at the same time. All of this because the Federal Reserve expanded money and credit by almost ten freaking billion dollars, in one freaking week!

Since I am already in a bad mood because of this, it doesn't take much to push me over the edge, and, sure enough, here comes something to make matters worse, as I notice that the Fed continued its practice of greedily gobbling up things for itself, and so the sub-account of the Fed called U.S. Government Securities Bought Outright jumped by $1 billion last week, too. Grrrr.

And, as my aching Mogambo eyeballs (AME) roll comically around in my head, the foreign central banks bought up, at the Fed, another $10 billion of US government debt last week, too! We now owe these foreign bastards, whom I universally despise because I am an American and John Wayne is an American, a cumulative $1.488 trillion, just in this one account alone! So, anyway, I mean, this is getting too, too weird.

And if you don't see the harm in owing a bunch of money to foreigners, then I suggest that you look at history and see what happened when dirtbag debtors stiffed some foreign creditors for some humongous money. Failing to impress you with that, then perhaps the words of Thomas Jefferson himself, warning us that borrowing all money from foreigners means that one day we will wake up homeless in our own county, will impress you.

But money is being created everywhere! Hell, the Treasury spent last week printing up another $5.4 billion in actual cash! Even M3, the measure of the money supply that is so broad that it includes everything that could possibly be considered as "money," jumped $70 billion dollars in the last four stinking weeks! No wonder the banks and the government are not going to report this statistic anymore, as it is proof positive that the dollar is being murdered!

more...

[EuroObserver]

29. Planning to pay us anytime soon?

With what?

"We now owe these foreign bastards, whom I universally despise because I am an American and John Wayne is an American, a cumulative $1.488 trillion, just in this one account alone!"

[ozymandius]

32. We'll be washing dishes for the next 1200 years to pay this tab. n/t

[barb162]

48. Buy Asian currency; they will own the US soon

[ozymandius]

17. markets are open for bidness with piddly volume

9:45
Dow 10,946.59 +30.50 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,260.94 +0.96 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,267.83 +2.22 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 44.45 -0.29 (-0.65%)
NYSE Volume 81,471,000
Nasdaq Volume 101,961,000

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. The indices are still poised to begin the day near the flat line. The Treasury market, meanwhile, is higher for no real reason other than extended holiday safe-haven buying and the fast-approaching month-end action. The dollar is higher against the yen and euro in very thin holiday trading. In spite of rate policy talk around the globe, the fact remains that yield spreads currently and in the near future still favor the buck.

8:29AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. The cash market remains headed towards a flat open. Retailers may be in the spotlight, as holiday shopping traditionally kicks off this "Black Friday." Over a quarter of American consumers are expected to start their gift buying today.

[spotbird]

19. Oz, how long do you think the markets will

ignore the realities on the ground? Why do you think they don't reflect the dangers of looming increases in interest rates and declining disposable income? Can the bliss continue forever?

[ozymandius]

21. The bliss will last until the end of the year.

It always does. Brokers, fund managers, CEOs and the like receive year-end bonuses based on stock performance. If the stock performance rockets at the end of the year (regardless of the previous months' results) then bonuses still come. It happens every time. Solid fiscal sense and profit performance has nothing to do with the numbers now. It's gamed and timed to be this way. All anyone has to do is research the ratio between stock price and earnings. They are severely out-of-whack in every indeces.

Thanks for asking. This cannot be stated enough.

EDIT: kant tpye ro sepll

[spotbird]

27. Thanks, do you think that

the Dow will continue in the 10,000-10,500 range until the election next year? The influences that support the market are so powerful that they are in a different reality from the folks who are paying 30% more for groceries. Are they also powerful that another year delay to pay the piper is possible? (say that three times fast :)

[ozymandius]

30. Well, I think that the growing concern over profitablility is legit.

2006 has been hoisted high as a banner year for falling corporate profits. More uncertainty: Energy prices are at the center of the mounting concern. Greenscam retures on January 31. His absence of dithering blithering reports may well spook the trading averages because Bernanke is smart enough to make him an unknown quantity on Fed reserve policy. No one seems to know if Bernanke has the rhetorical skills to be obtuse as Greenscam. That's even more uncertainty when the new boss is installed.

Count on these things:

*If at a loss over healthy averages, books will be cooked.

*If at a loss over healthy averages, companies will be shuffled in and out of indeces listings.

*M3 money supply (aggregate) data will not be reported (thus facilitating book cooking)

*There's an election coming up. The status-quo will want to dress up that window.

Stay tuned. I do believe the Dow is range-bound. But keep your eye on the S&P 500. That's where the mischief is.

[54anickel]

18. Bernankeism: Fraud or Menace?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumen/blumen10.html

In 2002, then-Fed Governor Benjamin Bernanke burst into our monetary consciousness with his printing press speech. His fine work earned him the honorary title "helicopter commander." While largely a background figure since then, his recent appointment to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chair makes this an ideal time to review Dr. Bernanke’s views on monetary policy, and to speculate about what his chairmanship will bring.

Since the Fed emerged from its near-death experience in the 70s, it has largely been identified with the label "inflation fighting." Notably, Dr. Bernanke’s research and speaking have dealt almost entirely with the subject of deflation. While his infamous address before the National Economists Club, titled Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn’t Happen Here (2002) has been endlessly reported and debated, more revealing and less well known are Dr. Bernanke’s many speeches on deflation between 1999 and 2004, and a series of research papers on the same subject produced by the then-Fed governor and his colleagues.

I have identified fourteen papers and speeches dealing with deflation, seven by Dr. Bernanke and seven by other Fed governors and staff economists. These materials are all available for public download on the Fed’s web site. To steal a line from columnist Dave Barry, I’m not making this up. This article will cover the most important points from these articles. Since I had to read all of these, I consider myself quite fortunate that none of the speeches was by Alan Greenspan.

These writings deal with three themes: the menace of deflation, the Fed’s strategy for preventing it, and their contingency plans to fight it (should their prevention efforts fail).

While Governor Bernanke is not the only member of the anti-deflation wing at the Fed, the Chair apparent has emerged as the most prominent advocate of this new agenda. His leadership merits the name "Bernankeism" for this policy program.

much more...

[54anickel]

26. Another perspective on the M3 reporting discontinuance

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=392

The Federal Reserve Board recently announced that it will stop publishing figures for M3 in March of 2006. It is one of the most commonly referenced measures of the U.S. money supply. This is not a momentous event, but it is another sign that the Fed would rather tell us less than tell us more.

As financial markets have changed, the classical measures of the money supply have become less relevant. The US economic system is vastly more complex today than when those measures were developed over half a century ago. With less regulation of the banking system and more substitutes for simple cash, it’s no longer clear what to include in “money.”

Money used to mean the cash people carried in their pockets and the checking and savings account balances they had in their banks, because that is what they would use to buy goods. But now they have money market funds, which function almost as checking accounts. And behind many small-balance checking accounts are large lines of credit. And with credit cards acceptable for almost everything, it is possible to get by with little cash at all.

snip>

To confirm that I had covered bases, I contacted the Federal Reserve who gave me the following weak answer:
"The decision to discontinue publication of the M3 monetary aggregate was based, in part, on a determination that the M3
does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in the M2 aggregate. In addition, the role of M3 in the policy process has diminished greatly over time. Consequently, the costs of collecting the data and publishing M3 now seem to outweigh the benefits."

That is as close to saying nothing as I can imagine....

snip>

The discontinuation of M3 reports is a relatively minor matter compared to growth in areas of the U.S. payments system that are not regulated by the Fed and not well monitored by them. But it is unsettling. It detracts from the transparency the Fed preaches and adds to the suspicion that the Fed wants to hide anything showing money growth high enough to fuel inflation, just so people won't know how bad it is and possibly react and thus make it worse.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Morning Ozy and all. I was going to have a left-over turkey sandwich

until I saw that toon.
Sort of lost my appetite now.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! We are down with nasty colds at our house, so we stayed home. It's one of those things you don't want to share. S-I-L delivered meals here yesterday and some extra left-overs as well.

[ozymandius]

22. Sorry to ruin your appetite 54anickel.

I hope that your turkey day provided some comfort from colds and holiday pressures.

I will be bugging out of here in an hour to visit with relatives. Ours was quiet - took the day off from the annual family en masse congregation in exchange for two smaller get-togethers today and tomorrow.

May you be afforded some rest this weekend.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

39. Thanks Ozy. Have a wonderful weekend with the relation.

[UpInArms]

24. Printing Press Report: Fed adds temporary reserves via seven-day repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-25T143857Z_01_N25344643_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through seven-day system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.00 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[ozymandius]

28. pfffffft.... (sound of flatness) 10:23 update

Dow 10,942.66 +26.57 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,261.33 +1.35 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,267.71 +2.10 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 44.41 -0.33 (-0.74%)
NYSE Volume 218,184,000
Nasdaq Volume 229,760,000

9:35AM: Despite futures' indications that the market would open flattly, each of the indices launched comfortably above the unchanged mark. There are no economic releases scheduled today, no earnings reports, and oil isn't trading. As the markets will close three hours early, stock and bond trading is likely to be the lightest of the year. There is very little corporate news. Taking the headlines is Merck (MRK) - in the news because its third Vioxx trial begins next week - and Bank of America (BAC) - whose acquisition of MBNA has passed a regulatory test involving deposit levels. Today's focus may well rest upon reports regarding holiday shopping. This "Black Friday" tradionally kicks off the key season for retailers; as much as 50% of annual sales and profits are generated in November and December.

[ozymandius]

31. seeing red for the first time

10:36
Dow 10,929.04 +12.95 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,257.23 -2.75 (-0.12%)
S&P 500 1,266.11 +0.50 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 44.37 -0.37 (-0.83%)
NYSE Volume 262,104,000
Nasdaq Volume 269,379,000

[UpInArms]

33. The Power of "Hope"

US blue chips edge up on hopes of holiday profits

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-25T154626Z_01_N25276013_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-5.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. blue-chip stocks were slightly higher on Friday as scenes of shoppers pouring into stores for holiday sales lifted investors' hopes about consumer spending and retail profits.

Shares of electronics retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY.N: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 3.2 percent to $50.57 on the New York Stock Exchange, while iPod maker Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 2.8 percent to $68.99 on Nasdaq.

The Nasdaq Composite was down slightly, with shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research), a Dow component, lower after the company said on Wednesday that some Xbox 360 owners are reporting problems with the new video game console that debuted in North America earlier this week. Shares fell 1 percent to $27.65.

The shopping frenzy began before dawn on "Black Friday" -- the day after Thanksgiving when many stores become profitable for the year. Last year the day accounted for nearly 10 percent of holiday sales.

<snip>

"We're up on retail right now, in anticipation of high retail sales," said Kevin Beadles, managing director of institutional equity trading at Wedbush Morgan. He characterized trading volume as "very light."

...more...

I "hope" I can keep my house warm this winter - do you think that will make it so?

What a bag of crap.

[ozymandius]

34. 11:03 numbers and bye

Dow 10,931.86 +15.77 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,257.98 -2.00 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,266.80 +1.19 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 44.35 -0.39 (-0.87%)
NYSE Volume 340,702,000
Nasdaq Volume 336,100,000

Have a great weekend folks!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

35. Have a great weekend, Ozy!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

36. AIG chief avoids Spitzer criminal case

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3447D59F%2D99F0%2D43BF%2D8E56%2D9658A97E9491%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer won't pursue criminal charges against former American International Group Chief Executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

Spitzer will instead focus on civil-fraud allegations lodged against Greenberg and the insurer earlier this year, the newspaper said, citing an unnamed person familiar with the matter.

Spitzer may amend the complaint as soon as next week to reflect new information, the report added. See full story on WSJ.com.

Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for Greenberg's legal team, declined to comment on the report. A spokesman at Spitzer's office didn't immediately return calls seeking comment.

Greenberg stepped down from AIG (AIG) earlier this year after the insurer became embroiled in multiple accounting investigations by state and federal prosecutors. Spitzer then filed a civil complaint accusing him and the company of using misleading accounting techniques. The company has since restated its earnings twice.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. Taser tumbles on delisting notice

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC0DA2CD7%2D4BC3%2D4111%2DA3A0%2DBB933271BDBA%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Taser International slumped Friday after the maker of stun guns disclosed that its stock was in danger of losing its listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Taser (TASRE) fell as much as $1.05, or 14%, to an intraday low of $6.35 before rebounding slightly to trade at $6.42. It was still up 4.4% since the end of October, but has lost 80% since the end of 2004.

The Nasdaq informed the Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company it's not in compliance with listing standards, citing its failure to file its third-quarter financial statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on time.

Taser had disclosed on Nov. 15 that it had filed for an extension in filing its third-quarter financial statements while it analyzed the impact from the restatement of first and second-quarter financial statements.

The restatements were a result of incorrect accounting of legal fees and other professional expenses.

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. 12:07 EST and all is well

Dow 10,931.70 +15.61 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,260.26 +0.28 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,267.33 +1.72 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441 -0.33 (-0.74%)


NYSE Volume 498,093,000
Nasdaq Volume 464,415,000

11:30AM: Little has changed within the stock market, and the indices continue to trade in mixed fashion. The Tech sector's flat-line status - due largely to relative weakness in Microsoft (MSFT 27.54 -0.38) and Yahoo (YHOO 42.03 -0.47) - and submerged biotechs keep the Nasdaq treading negative water. Telecom has assumed the driver's seat, up 0.8% on the day. Alltel Corp. (AT 67.15 +1.15) lends the most upside, rising about 1.7% and hitting a fresh 52-week high. NYSE Adv/Dec 1449/1430, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1269/1402

11:00AM: Equities fade further, but the Dow and S&P still manage to maintain positive footing. The Treasury market, meanwhile, continues to advance, but the volume is light and the floors half-staffed. The curve has dipped flatter, but again, the volume is tight. The 10-year, currently up 10 ticks, yields 4.43%. At the back end of the curve, the 30-year (+20/32) offers 4.66%; at the front end, the five-year (+05/) yields 4.34%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1322/1518, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1244/1373

[UpInArms]

42. 12:34 EST and jumping for joy!

Dow 10,938.42 +22.33 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,263.22 +3.24 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,268.61 +3.00 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.437 -0.37 (-0.83%)

NYSE Volume 572,778,000
Nasdaq Volume 525,154,000

12:30PM: While today's trading volume has been slim and although gains remain well in check, the indices nonetheless stand strong and a bullish bias exists. All ten sectors presently trade on gaining ground, with Materials' +0.6% leading and Financials' 0.03% lagging. Within the Dow, more than two-thirds of the average's components trend higher. The market's breadth further reveals the session's optimistic tone: Advancers lead decliners on the NYSE - maintaining a 13-to-17 edge - and are neck and neck with decliners on the Nasdaq. As a reminder, the market closes at 1:00 ET.NYSE Adv/Dec 1660/1317, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1379/1371

12:00PM: Heading slightly higher, the indices get a boost from the Financial sector's approach of the unchanged mark. American International Group (AIG 68.49 -0.48) exerts the strongest pressure to the downside. According to a Wall Street Journal's report this morning, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has decided against pursuing possible criminal charges against former AIG Chairman and CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg in connection with the insurer's accounting scandal. Instead, Spitzer's office is focusing on civil-fraud allegations it lodged against Greenberg and the company itself in late May. Strength within the bond market has perhaps supported the rate-sensitive sector, though. NYSE Adv/Dec 1595/1346, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1338/1380

[54anickel]

43. Oh, imagine that. Yet another up day. How many has that been in

a row now?

[54anickel]

45. Closin' time - everyone's a wee bit wealthier today

Dow 10,931.62 +15.53 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,263.01 +3.03 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,268.25 +2.64 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.431% -0.04
NYSE Volume 708,544,000
Nasdaq Volume 648,740,000

Close:Clear economic and earnings calendars, closed crude trading, and virtually no news on the corporate front made for a quiet session today. Typically one of the lightest trading days of the year, trading desks were only partially occupied following the Thanksgiving holiday and amid a shortened session. While absent catalysts and light volume kept action in check, a bullish bias nonetheless dominated. The indices each trended higher, extending the recent rally that took the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite to levels not seen since 2001, and the Dow near a 4-1/2 year high, on Wednesday. Each of the ten sectors notched gains today, with Telecom's 0.8% leading the way higher and the Discretionary sector's 0.1% lagging. Retailers sat in the spotlight, as this "Black Friday" traditionally launches the holiday shopping season that puts many retailers back in the black, accounting code for profitability. The industry group closed 0.2% higher, led by Best Buy (BBY 50.63 +1.63) and aided by the National Retail Federation's raised forecast for 6% retail sales growth this holiday season. Separately, the Treasury market stood strong, similarly amid light trading. The 10-year jumped 10 ticks and slid down to a 4.43% yield - its best level of the month. NYSE Adv/Dec 1822/1235, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1480/1314
12:30PM : While today's trading volume has been slim and although gains remain well in check, the indices nonetheless stand strong and a bullish bias exists. All ten sectors presently trade on gaining ground, with Materials' +0.6% leading and Financials' 0.03% lagging. Within the Dow, more than two-thirds of the average's components trend higher. The market's breadth further reveals the session's optimistic tone: Advancers lead decliners on the NYSE - maintaining a 13-to-17 edge - and are neck and neck with decliners on the Nasdaq. As a reminder, the market closes at 1:00 ET.NYSE Adv/Dec 1660/1317, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1379/1371

Have a great weekend. :hi: