Federal storm prediction center issues rare prediction

[Roland99]

http://www.whas11.com/topstories/stories/WHAS11_TOP_TornadoPrediction.6225a04f.html

EVANSVILLE, Ind. (AP) -- The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, is issuing a rare tornado prediction for southeastern Indiana.

The forecasters say there is an 80 percent chance of two or more tornados in an area including southern Indiana and southeastern Illinois Tuesday.

They’re calling it a “potentially dangerous situation.” The classification is used for only a handful of storms annually.

...

The National Weather Service says atmospheric conditions today are similar to those that caused a string of storms that spun off the tornado earlier this month. That storm raked a 41-mile path across Indiana and Kentucky.

Good thing Santorum hasn't had his way or we'd have had to pay to find out this information.

My sister called and told me that local weather forecasters are recommending people cancel activities this evening and stay near someplace that offers shelter.

:scared:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Springfield MO is also issuing dire warnings

for this afternoon, saying conditions are like those of a killer tornado of a couple years back. They are very serious about checking weather conditions and to listen for warnings. So, Indiana and Illinois, look out-more bad weather coming your way.

[jayfish]

2. "Crazy" Weather For My Area.

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/category.asp?C=2906

Good afternoon, from Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Terri DeBoer. Forecast Prepared: Tuesday, November 15, 2005


TUESDAY WEATHER:
Cloudy Skies.
Drizzle & Fog
Showers & T-Storms Developing
HIGH: 50 LOW: 38
WINDS: NE-E 10-20 mph

SUNRISE: 7:35 a.m.
SUNSET: 5:19 p.m.

LAKE MICHIGAN:
GALE WARNING THIS EVENING
WINDS: E-NE inc. to 10-20 knots
WAVES: 1-3 feet (increasing tonight)

SYNOPSIS: Expect a crazy 24-48 hours of weather here in West Michigan! Our Tuesday started with cloudy skies & patchy drizzle & fog. Showers & t-storms will overspread the area from south to north today, with the potential for strong to severe t-storms to develop this evening & tonight. Tonight will become increasingly windy, with showers & t-storms. West Michigan is included in a Moderate Risk Area for severe t-storms, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds & an isolated tornado.

Wednesday will be a windy day, with snow showers developing & temperatures dropping into the 30's. Occasional snow showers will develop through the end of the week, with highs staying in the 30's, and lows in the 20's.

Stay with 24 Hour News 8 for the Exclusive Storm Team 8 Day Forecast on 24 Hour News 8 Daybreak, Noon, 6 p.m. & 11 p.m.

High wind, thunderstorms then snow. I'm so glad humans aren't behind global warming :sarcasm:

Jay

[tatertop]

28. that is some crazy weather

[jayfish]

30. It's Been A Strange Year.

I remember posting about thunderstorms we were having in February.

Jay

[tatertop]

32. yes, it has been a very strange year

looks like it will have a strange ending

[Dover]

40. This would be considered 'normal' weather in Texas...

Keep your head down and your eyes open.

[xxqqqzme]

3. I grew up in E-ville

and we were told tornados just don't happen here because it was on the river and 'too low' for tornados. Guess that's another old wives tale up in smoke w/ the onset of global warming.

[skooooo]

16. Me too!

I hope it doesn't get hit again after that terrible one that destroyed parts of Newburgh.

[LibertyLover]

20. Back when I was in college (when dirt was young)

I took a class in meteorology. The last week of classes, T.T. Fujita (inventor of the Fujita Scale to classify tornados) came in to lecture (I went to the University of Chicago undergrad)and showed us photos of various tornados and tornado tracks. T.T. has a strong Japanese accent and so his pronunciation of words with Ls in them frequently came out like Rs. So, anyway, he'd put one of his slides on screen and announce with great glee things like: "Rook- you think tornado not crimb mountain - see it does." And sure enough there was a tornado track up a mountain (well, ok, it was a small mountain) and down the other side. Or: "Rook - you think tornado not cross river." And there was a photo of a tornado track crossing a small river. He ended up by telling us that since tornado season was starting in the midwest, if we were driving we should always be on the lookout for a "funer crowd" and if we saw one, we should stop the car, get out, take a photo and send it to him. ("You see crowd. You stop car. You put car in park. You get out of car and take picture of tornado crowd. Then you get back in car and drive rike herl. You send photo here to me, Dr. T.T. Fujita."). I wonder if Mythbusters could do a segment on tornados?

[amandabeech]

21. Drive rike herl!

If you don't hurl first from fright!:rofl:

Thanks for the great story from someone else born when soil was young, and not too far from Chicago where Lake Michigan protected us from tornados!

[mb7588a]

25. i don't buy the lake michigan protection idea...

there was a tornado that jumped the bay of green bay once and ripped up a chunk of Door County, WI.

[amandabeech]

38. I don't buy it either.

It is just another apocryphal story like those that Fujita debunked. By citing it I was making an attempt at humor.

[Occulus]

41. There isn't even a jot of truth to tornado wives' tales

Not even a little bit. If you believe them, it could get you killed.

Tornadoes are very unpredictable things- about as predictable as the minute permutations in the vortex created by draining water. Which is to say, not very.

I'd still love to see one- from a safe distance- before I die. I'd ilke to see one form, do its thing, and then disappear. The whole process.

From what I understand, from afar- they are beautiful things to see.

[Darkhawk32]

4. Santorum: "Wthr forecasts are nothing more than an entitlement program"

[AngryOldDem]

5. This has me really concerned

I live in southwest Ohio (Dayton) and we may get hit too. I've been keeping track on the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center site and it is now predicting a tornado watch here by 3 p.m. EST. A deep shear is forming out west and they're expecting supercells to develop. The best time for tornadoes, according to the SPC statement, is between 4 and 6 p.m.

I am doubly worried because I work at a homeless shelter. Tonight we may see upwards of 150 people coming in. It is a converted warehouse with mainly outside walls and A LOT of windows. The only place I can think of to send people is to what we call our "cold weather overflow," which would probably hold everyone but -- again -- it's an outside wall. That more than anything has me scared to death, and I plan to address this as soon as I get to work (in about an hour). I can't believe that this is an issue that (as far as I know) has never been discussed down there. All I can do, I guess, is have someone monitor the TV in the guest lounge and come and get one of us attendants if a warning is issued. Then...well, I'd rather not go there right now. I really don't have a lot of confidence in that building's structure right now. A lot of outside walls and few to no inside walls. At least, not enough to safely house over 100 people.

Sorry for the ramble but this has me scared, and typically, I don't get too worked up over the weather anymore.

ON EDIT: Right now the SUN is trying to come out. If that happens, we are all ROYALLY screwed.

[Kukesa]

13. Maybe the Homeless Shelter NEEDS an emergency plan? (nt)

[kestrel91316]

43. Hey, were you in the Dayton area April 3, 1974 for the Big One in

Xenia?? Remember that day? 148 tornados in one day, including 6 F5's. Xenia was the worst tornado to ever hit in the US (still has not been matched). I know this because I was in HS there (Beavercreek) and the tornado came through just a couple-three miles from our house.

[SIU_Blue]

6. On CNN right now....

many counties affected, Southern Illinois (that's me), southern Indiana, and Eastern Missouri

Anyone in these areas please check CNN or local forecasts, and stay safe.

-JB

[williesgirl]

31. All DUers in affected areas, our prayers for all to stay safe. n/t

[ewagner]

7. The Strorm Prediction Center

Isn't fooling around

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN INDIANA
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... emphasis mine

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF SAINT LOUIS
MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON INDIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 864...WW 865...

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MO IS FORECAST TO
TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO IL. AIR MASS AHEAD OF LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY...WITH WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SURFACE AIR SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

[jayfish]

9. Looks Like God...

is mad at Indiana and Missouri for voting for bush :sarcasm:

Jay

[ewagner]

11. Two indicators of severe weather

CAPE Calculated Atmospheric Potential Energy (lift)
and Heliocity (rotation in the atmosphere)

are both present in that area.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/compmap/

the link is the blank map...check the boxes for CAPE and Heliocity to see what I'm talking about.

[Roland99]

12. And Ky. for voting against same-sex marriage.

:eyes:



BTW, I hope this weather holds off for at least another 90 min. until my daughter is safe at my sister's house from school and it looks like it will:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.klvx.shtml

[jayfish]

18. Stay Safe. -NT-

Jay

[0007]

39. Gee, I wonder what's in store for Texas? n/t

[nickyt]

8. Here in Northwest AR, we've gone from 68 degrees this morning -

a perfect SPRING sunrise - to 43 degrees now. We're done with our bit of rain - 23 tonight, winds up to 35mph. This is definately a huge weather event, may all keep heads up and be safe north of here...
If the only thing Santorum ever did was threaten to take away our NWS, that would be a good enough reason to despise him. And, as a life-long weather freak, I do I do I DO -

[Arkansas Granny]

14. Also in Arkansas, 72 degrees this morning, 52 degrees now with

a low of 30 degrees expected tonight. A tornado watch was already in effect by 4:00 this morning when I woke up, but the cold front has passed through so no problems here now from severe weather. We had record high temperatures last week and a possibility of record lows this week.

[tatertop]

33. from 72 to 30 in one day, that is pretty freaky

bring short shorts and a winter coat

[sinkingfeeling]

10. NW Arkansas is also under Tornado Watch today.

[nickyt]

17. I'm in the hills, and I don't think tornadoes can sustain themselves here,

but I was wondering to a friend the other night if your area has ever had one?

[cmd]

22. Just take care

My dad and step mother are in a mobile home on a hill outside Harrison. I hope my step sister makes them move to the rock house. However, stubborness reigns with my dad. He sat in his chair and watch a tornado tear through the area when he lived in Valley Springs.

Just checked your profile: Eureka Springs/ blues, a great combination.

[nickyt]

24. Holy Cow, WE HAVE THE SAME DAD! (mule-headed!) Harrison is

fine, storms are way east now. Just fixin to be frigid cold now...yeah, Eureka's gorgeous, and the blues is a veritable life- sustaining force, eh?

[cmd]

35. LOL

I love visiting Eureka. Dad moved to Arkansas when he retired about 20 years ago. We try to make a trip to see him once a year. One day I'm going to make a blues tour of the South. Perhaps I see you along the way. Peace, cmd

[sinkingfeeling]

23. I looked it up and according to a study by U of Ark., Benton County

has had 31 tornadoes between 1950 and 1998, Washington Cty. - 15, and then as you move into the hills, Boone Cty -6, Madison Cty. -7. The closet one I remember (I lived here 14 years) was the one that hit Ft. Smith in 1996.

[nickyt]

26. Oh thank you for that research...I had just moved here in '97 when poor

Arkadephia got wiped off the map...I wonder why your area (since it's relatively flat) has been spared? - but I'm glad of it!

[SIU_Blue]

15. 19 counties now under tornado warning

STAY ALERT PEOPLE!!!!!

don't want any DU'ers blowing away!!!!!

[Robert Cooper]

19. Accuweather link

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&zipcode=16801&level=regional&site=NE&anim=STILL&type=SIR

Nasty!

1. Air conditioning requires electricity
2. Electricity requires fuel
3. Fuel burned creates global warming
4. global warming increases temperatures
5. increasing temperatures requires air conditioning
6. Goto 1

I suppose Dubya is still unconvinced.

[lakeguy]

27. did Indiana vote against "intelligent design" too?

[Delphinus]

37. Actually, Mitch Daniels,

the boy king's buddy, said Intelligent Design should not be legislated to be in schools (or something along that line). I was VERY surprised.

[skooooo]

29. Headed right for Evansville :-(

Live newscast at www.weht.com

Right now it's in western KY and headed along the ohio river...

[Roland99]

34. Two apparent Tornado Touchdowns in Madisonville, KY

(couple hours SW of Louisville)

[Sgent]

36. Warnings for the north half of the state

were issued earlier this morning -- tornado sirens are going off now. We got that same weird warning.

Sirens going off now...

[TheGunslinger]

42. Ain't a whole lot going on. Some clouds w/rotation and some severe

storms but doesn't seem to be living up to the hype




Fine by me.