NYT: Natural Gas: Big Worry This Winter

[DeepModem Mom]

Natural Gas: Big Worry This Winter
By SIMON ROMERO
Published: November 15, 2005


HOUSTON, Nov. 14 - Unexpectedly warm weather has bathed much of the United States in recent weeks, but fears persist that a classic energy shock may be unfolding as the nation heads into winter.

This time, though, the coming squeeze is in natural gas rather than oil.

Executives at companies that consume large amounts of natural gas are warning - almost screaming - about the costs they expect to face over the coming months....

***

Thanks to a huge buildup of natural-gas-fired electricity plants in the 1990's even as exploration has slowed, demand has outstripped supply; the nation now depends on natural gas for 24 percent of its energy requirements, compared with 23 percent for coal and 40 percent for oil.

The threat of higher prices and potential shortages has led to a showdown over the most ambitious push to expand domestic drilling since the 1970's. The energy industry and major consumers of natural gas have been aggressively pushing Congress to open areas for exploration....


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/15/business/15natgas.html

[tonkatoy57]

1. This is gonna be bad, really bad

Between manufacturers passing on their increased energy costs and the old and the poor freezing to death this is going to be one bad winter.

At least in my part of the country (Missouri) we've had warmer than normal weather so far, but when it get's seasonal and we get a cold spell it's going to be bad. Oh boy, when Suburban Man opens his first $400 gas bill the shit is going to hit the fan.

[halobeam]

6. I just opened my first 400+ bill..... for gas.

431.00 budgeted to be exact. Per month. Meanwhile, electric bill is at 304.00/month and expected to go up about 60 - 70 dollars for my next bill.

So for December I should be looking at 800+/month for gas and electric. Nice, huh?

[tonkatoy57]

7. $400 for budget billing

Yikes and double yikes.

May I suggest a sweater or maybe a goose down moon suit to wear around the house. Wow, that's some serious budget billing.

My family has always been frugal about heat in the winter. We usually keep it at 55 at night and during the day when we aren't home and at 60 when we are home. The gas company estimates our bill because the meter is in the basement and they never come to read it when we are home. They always overestimate our usage, so this year I've started the heating season with a $650 credit on my account. I don't think the credit is going to go as far this year as in years past.

May I ask why your electric bill is so expensive as well? Most people I know with gas heat only use electric for lighting and maybe for a water heater. To have both a gas and electric bill that high is a real zinger.

[halobeam]

12. What's happening is this..

We were estimated a lot last year, causing this years budget to be a bit higher. As far as the increase, until this month, gas was budgeted at 177/month, the increase was 234. so it is now budgeted at 431.

We have the heat down to 55 at night, as this is how I was brought up and actually prefer it. I am at home during the day, so I do keep it up to 60 (sometimes a little more when all the socks in the world don't get the chill out).

I think the hot water heater, being 12 years old, is ready to go, and it's costing an increase right there. We have kids with serious allergies, so the bedding and anything fabric (I try to keep that to a minimum) needs to be done twice a week making the laundry cycles go on for what seems like forever. We have 2 long shower takers, and the rest of us very short, so I think that washes (no pun lol) out the other.

I'm constantly and I mean CONSTANTLY turning off everything electric, after my kids, and husband as they leave things on. I see the difference in "actual" vs "estimated" and I'm winning that race, so that maybe next budget year, it will improve somewhat.

So that's it for now. Thank God we can make these payments and we are crossing our fingers for the next budget year to begin, as we are getting a new hot water heater very soon.

Both bills are enormous. We are in the high range even in our neighborhood, which quite frankly, these people are gluttons, like watering their lawns while it's freaking raining outside for example.

[tonkatoy57]

14. Are we related?

Or maybe live parallel lives?

"I'm constantly and I mean CONSTANTLY turning off everything electric, after my kids, and husband as they leave things on. I see the difference in "actual" vs "estimated" and I'm winning that race, so that maybe next budget year, it will improve somewhat."

My wife, for someone who grew up poor, sure doesn't think much about leaving every light and appliance in the house on at all times. My son is just as bad. I think I'd come our ahead of the game if I just hired a homeless person to follow my wife and son around turning of lights, stereos, and small appliances. Sometimes I come home from work and my house looks like a ship, lights blazing, sailing on a desolate night sea.

[booksenkatz]

15. Classic!

"Sometimes I come home from work and my house looks like a ship, lights blazing, sailing on a desolate night sea."
:rofl:
My husband is a Patrick O'Brian fan... I'll remember to use this phrase next time I'm nagging him about leaving everything we own running as if we're millionaires. Perhaps the ship reference will clink together some pertinent brain cells of his.

edited for seplilng.

[tonkatoy57]

16. Thank You, Thank You. I lurves me some Patsy Cline

Maybe you can tell your husband that you're "Crazy" from "Walking After Midnight" and turning the lights off and if he doesn't shape up it will drive you "Right Back In Baby's Arms Again".

[booksenkatz]

23. LMAO!

Oh, yeah!:headbang:

[halobeam]

22. Our neighbors houses are lit up like that at night.

For the most part, you would probably see my house as a strobe light. Kids run through the rooms turn on lights, I run after them turning them off. Must really look funny between 6 and 8 pm. After that, they slow down a bit, so it's only two rooms lit at night.

[leQ]

8. damn, makes my $65 utility bill (both gas/elec) seem like a dream

[converted_democrat]

18. I'm not far behind you......

We have electric everything, so our electric bill has always been "high." Our electric bill this month is 647.37. This month the electric bill is more than our mortgage payment. I'd never dreamed it could ever happen, but it has. I thank my lucky stars my husband is so good with money. I used to make fun of him for being so frugal, and for being so "tight." I don't laugh at him so much anymore, his "knack" with money is serving us well right now.

[prolesunited]

19. That's insane

Where do you live? Do you have a really big or old house?

[halobeam]

21. LOL... it is insane.

I'm on Long Island. This house is a cape. Not very big. The only thing I really do that stands out like I had said earlier is a lot of wash. Hot water heater is inefficient and being replaced.

[karlrschneider]

25. U. City? I used to spend a lot of time there! My cousins grew up there

& my sis lived there for years. :-)

[Tesha]

2. Honestly, we deserve whatever happens. :-(

It's not as if we didn't have several decades of warning that cheap
energy supplies were going to run out.

Tesha

[Cobalt Violet]

3. And this is why Bush's rating will continue to fall.

We will have frozen bodies this winter.

[tonkatoy57]

4. As Tip O'Neil said

"All politics is local"

I hate to say it, and it shouldn't be this way, but people are going to be twice as irate about a $400 natural gas bill than they are about 2000+ of our dead children in Iraq.

Bush is toast. The downward death spiral will accelerate in direct proportion to the rise in natural gas bills.

[Double T]

5. I love the buildup from the energy companies that produce.......

and distribute natural gas just before they are going to screw you with price gouging. The bush administration, headed by unkie dick, has given the entire energy producing industry a license to screw the hell out of the American consumer. We have already experienced Phase I of the screw job with previous exorbitant gasoline prices, Phase II is on deck and ready to go as soon as the temperatures begin to drop this winter. The "All For One And NONE For All" mentality of the bush administration is destroying this country.

[amandabeech]

9. I believe that the Times's assessment of which areas of the country

depend on natural gas for electricity generation. I did a calculation a few months ago using info from the www.eia.doe.gov website. Unfortunately, the most helpful table is no longer available.

If I recall correctly, Texas generates almost 40% of its electricity with natural gas. Louisiana, Florida, Oklahoma and California also use considerable amounts--more than 20%.

Midwestern states are the heaviest users of natural gas for heating of both homes and businesses.

The Canadians are using more natural gas to produce synthetic crude from their tar sands. I guess the tradeoff there will be either to freeze in the winter or be able to drive the semi full of cheap junk from China from California to New York, not that the tar sands will ever produce huge quantities of transportation fuel.

Why the idiot in chief hasn't called for serious natural gas conservation is beyond me.

[merwin]

10. Oil not doing so bad? Diesel is 50 cents above premium unleaded right now.

Normally it's at or below premium.

[Toots]

11. Thanks to huge buildup of natural-gas-fired electricity plants in the 1990

Remember in 2001 the "Energy Crisis" and Cheney saying the reason was no new plants had been built since the seventies. Cheney proposed building something like a plant a week for several years to save us from the "very severe crisis" that was happening. Turns out all it really took was for the Senate to switch from republican to Democrat and the "Crisis" ended abruptly.

[dubyaD40web]

13. I pay $90/month.

I'm on the gas co.'s flex plan. I only pay the average over a 12 month span. Even in the summer. I'm glad I signed up for it. (Oh, and I live in K.C.) It's going to snow today. :-(

[Sabriel]

17. My utility company put something new in this month's packet

It's a "gift certficate" so you can "Give the gift of warmth this holiday season." No lie! You buy certificates and then give them as gifts.

It pisses me off to no end. Isn't this what I'm paying taxes for, so people don't freeze or starve? *uck!

[prolesunited]

20. No, you pay taxes

so we can lob bombs at Iraq and pad Halliburton's pockets.

[Indy Lurker]

24. Natural gas stores are up

The company I work for uses over $20,000 per month in natural gas, so we watch the price very close.


I predict natural gas prices will go down to last winter's price fairly soon.


Natural gas storage is at record levels.

It should be going down.

Right now it is propped up by speculation on natural gas futures.

But unlike the tech stocks or the housing market. When you futures are due up, you have to either sell them, or take delivery of the gas.

And with the warm fall we've been having, stores will be at capacity.

If all these clowns who are bidding up the price suddenly realize no one wants the January gas futures their holding, the price will drop very fast.