STOCK MARKET WATCH, THURSDAY JULY 17.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday July 17, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 553
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 247
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 220 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 278 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 119
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 604
Number of Enron Exec's in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXEC'S CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Exec's = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 16, 2003

DJIA 9,094.59 -34.38 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,747.97 -5.24 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 994.00 -6.42 (-0.64%)
10-Year Bond 3.95% +0.03 (+0.79%)
Gold future...... 343.20 +1.00 (+0.29%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. Remember: It's a JOB-LOSS recovery

Outsourcing to cut 10% IT jobs in US: Gartner

MUMBAI: Research firm Gartner on Tuesday said that 10% of the IT professionals working in IT services firms in the US will lose their jobs to the global offshore outsourcing business by the end of ‘04. However, these are rough estimates and do not take into account IT jobs that will be lost in firms which are not providing services. These jobs will be lost, as offshore outsourcing has become a business reality and a “mega-trend”, Gartner officials said. They will be shifted and sent offshore to countries such as Russia, China, Philippines, and India.

story

[ze_dscherman]

6. Add 5.000 job cuts by Boeing

Boeing to Announce 5,000 More Job Cuts, Seattle Times Reports

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co., the world's largest planemaker, is planning 5,000 more job cuts by the end of the year because of a slump in demand for new aircraft, the Seattle Times reported, without saying where it got the information.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ajwD7Zxsfp.M&refer=us

[Maeve]

13. Good news, bad news on jobless claims

Jobless claims drop
"New weekly claims for unemployment benefits fall sharply from prior week's 20-year high.
July 17, 2003: 8:53 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell sharply last week from their highest level in more than 20 years, the government said Thursday, as the labor market struggled to end a prolonged downturn
The Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 412,000 in the week ended July 12 from a revised 441,000 the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 425,000 new claims, according to a Reuters poll."

And the bad news--beside the fact that these figures are revised up WAY too often....

"Many economists believe the 400,000 level of claims is a benchmark for labor-market weakness; others think the threshold should be higher. Regardless, few economists would argue that the labor market is particularly strong at the moment.

The U.S. unemployment rate is at 6.4 percent, the highest level since April 1994, and payrolls still are 2.6 million jobs thinner than they were in March 2001, when economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research say a recession began"

[KayLaw]

2. Goodness!

The futures look terrible. What's up?

[ozymandius]

4. Up?

I would say Jim Puplava's ego is what's up. He is a pretty sharp guy.

In all seriousness, yesterday Intel was supposed to lead the charge toward higher numbers. Now as we review the previous day's data, we can see how well that worked.

[ozymandius]

7. Atlanta-based companies looking up

Coke Profit Boosted by Solid Sales

ATLANTA (Reuters) - Coca-Cola Co. KO.N , the world's largest soft drink company, reported on Thursday an 11 percent jump in net income due in part to solid sales in Europe and North America, its two most important markets.

Atlanta-based Coca-Cola, which is battling archrival PepsiCo Inc. PEP.N for control of the North American beverage market, said results were spurred by 20 percent growth in sales of its juices, waters and other non-carbonated beverages.

Sales of soft drinks rose a more modest 2 percent.

story

Delta Air Lines Reports Quarterly Profit

Shares of Atlanta-based Delta rose 65 percent in the second quarter as investors gained confidence that the threat of additional airline bankruptcies had faded. The American Stock Exchange's airline index .XAL jumped 85 percent during the period.

blurb

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

The Zero-Interest-Rate Economy

Twice a year the Fed is required to report to the Congress on monetary policy and the condition of the American economy. It is obvious from viewing the last two days of testimony that Mr. Greenspan is less confident as to where this economy is headed. There was plenty of optimistic talk about the future that was followed by an equal emphasis on future uncertainties. Downside risks in higher energy prices, especially natural gas, flagging demand amongst important trading partners, rising unemployment, weakness in business capital investment, an uncertain outlook for corporate profits and a downturn in consumer spending are just a few of the possibilities that could make the Fed’s optimistic forecast for the economy turn out to be fiction. In other words, the Fed’s optimistic forecast is filled with uncertainties. Conventional monetary policy is turning out to be less effective in producing an enduring economic recovery. Because conventional policy methods aren’t working their traditional magic, the Fed is now studying alternative policy measures in order to prepare for the zero-interest rate economy.
<..cut..>
In its July 15th report to Congress the Fed highlighted the fact that economic performance during the first half of this year has been subpar. Most of the reasons for this subpar performance are attributed to the uncertainty over the Iraq War, rising energy prices, lingering aftereffects from last year’s accounting scandals and an excessive cautionary mood by business in general.

As of June when the report was prepared, there was no compelling evidence that a step-up in economic growth was firmly taking root in the economy. The Fed believes that a more expansive monetary policy was warranted given all of the economic risks that were still present in the economy. As a result the Fed cut interest rates for the 13th time in June, bringing the Fed funds rate down to 1%, a 45 year low. <..cut..>

However, underneath that optimism is a nagging doubt as Fed policy makers study their next moves if economic growth begins to falter again. What is clear <..snip..> is that the lowest interest rates in nearly half a century have failed to create another boom in the economy. The only identifiable result so far has been the creation of multiple asset bubbles in the bond, stock, mortgage, and housing market.

Puplava continues with warnings...

[ozymandius]

5. Wall Street set to drop as IBM, Nokia disappoint

LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Wall Street looks set for a weaker start on Thursday amid jitters over corporate profits, with shares in computing giant International Business Machines IBM.N falling in pre-market trade after results overnight.

Dealers said technology stocks may be in for a choppy ride after disappointing outlooks from IBM and mobile phone maker Nokia NOK1V.HE NOK.N dashed hopes of a recovery in the technology sector.

"The rally in technology stocks has narrowed in the past couple of weeks. Stocks are likely to hit a trading range as investors digest corporate earnings and wait for more evidence of a sustainable recovery in corporate and consumer spending," said Graham Hay, head of global technology and communications at First State.

story

[Maeve]

8. Alternate cartoon for the day

Morning, folks! Well, the futures are down, but they haven't been much of an indicator the past few days. Still, Ouija sez "Duck and cover!"

[ozymandius]

9. good one Maeve! Here's some more news.

Investors irked

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks plodded toward a lower open Thursday, as investors coped with IBM's troubling quarterly report, considered mixed results from a handful of other Dow components, and awaited Microsoft's bottom-line news after the close of trading.

This week is one of the busiest of the earnings season, with about one third of companies in the S&P 500 reporting their quarterly results.

<..cut..>
To go with the earnings reports are a bunch of economic figures. Before the open, the government reveals the initial jobless claims for the week ended July 12. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect to see the number decline to 425,000 from 439,000 the prior week, still above the level that signifies economic weakness.

more

[Spazito]

10. Here is an interesting article from the CBC re report from ....

the Economist Intelligence Unit.

TORONTO - Canada will be the best country in the world in which to do business over the next half decade, according to a new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Canada moved up three spots on the list from a 1998-2002 ranking, as the United States tumbled out of the top rung to fifth position.

snip

The research group dropped the ranking for the United States by four spots, due to "increased exposure to geopolitical risk, major imbalances in the economy, and weakening public finances."


Edited for an oops: forgot the link, here it is

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/07/16/economistrank_030716

[JNelson6563]

11. Happy Thursday Mornin' All

Well, well, well! So the Green-man wasn't allowed to get away with a few ambiguous, slightly optimistic statements and then go on his merry, out-of-touch way eh? Hahaha! I say Good! Let the people really see the horrors Team Bush has wrought. Bastards.

So they expect a drop in UE claims.......I think they made that mistake last time didn't they? mmm hmm. Well some people have to touch the stove more than once in order to understand it is hot.

I believe we are in for a brutal day. Seems the more truth that comes out on all things the worse it gets. The way I see it though, the sooner we fall the quicker we can get back up again and fix things. In fact, it looks to me like the timing will be just right for our Dem Pres. to step in and set things on the right path.

Keepin' an eye on it all with you--hope all have a good day (in spite of the Street). :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

15. Good morning Julie.

I am glad to see that snafu with you getting tombstoned is fixed. It is shockingly curious when any "old timers" here get stoned. I thought certainly it must have been an accident.

Did you get an explanation?

[JNelson6563]

25. just that it was a mistake

and I got an apology too.

All I could think of was "have I bitten my tongue so often for nothing??" haha

Julie

[Maeve]

12. Housing starts rose

Housing starts rose 3.8% in June to higher-than-expected 1.8 million. Details coming
http://money.cnn.com/

[JNelson6563]

14. one last burst from that

area of spending I'd say. Anyone hear of the coming rise in interest rates? Me thinks mortgages and refi's are on the way out.

That will be the death blow to this illusion of all's well.

Julie

[ozymandius]

16. June Housing Construction Rises (reasons)

WASHINGTON - The number of new housing projects builders broke ground on in June climbed to the highest level in five months, good news for efforts to get the economy back into shape.
<..cut..>
The reports came as a group of academic economists declared the 2001 recession officially over.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the recognized arbiter of when recessions begin and end in the United States, said on Thursday that it has determined the recession ended in November 2001, only eight months after it began.
<..cut..>
Low mortgage rates are powering the housing market and keeping home-mortgage refinancing activity brisk. Economists expect home sales to break another record this year.

Extra cash from refinancing along with solid home-value appreciation are underpinning consumer spending, one of the main forces keeping the economy going.

more

[Maeve]

17. And do you suppose folks knew they'd better act NOW?

We've been hearing rumbles about "this can't last" in re low mortgage rates...do you suppose folks believe that might be true and took advantage of it while they can?

on edit--I see Julie beat me to the same point!

[ozymandius]

20. FinancialSense warned about this earlier this week.

In essence: too many homeowners are refinancing their homes as well as taking home equity loans out of their property in order to buy essentials, pay off credit cards and the like. This is reckless.

Rates have started rising in the Pacific Northwest. I wonder how far behind is the rest of the country.

[Maeve]

18. 9:32 and of to the races in red

Dow 9,049.28 -45.31 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,727.15 -20.82 (-1.19%)
S&P 500 990.06 -4.03 (-0.41%)

[Maeve]

19. 9:50 and some improvement

Dow 9,093.05 -1.54 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,726.53 -21.44 (-1.23%)
S&P 500 990.03 -4.06 (-0.41%)

[lfairban]

22. Uh, this is weird. . .

. . . the Nasdaq is down a percent and a quarter, the S&P almost a half percent, and the Dow just broak even. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

21. 9:55 - what a swing in the first 25 minutes!

DJIA 9,105.79 11.20 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ 1,727.48 -20.49 (-1.17%)
S&P 500 991.18 -2.91 (-0.29%)

[Maeve]

23. 10 minutes later and dropping again

Dow 9,092.84 -1.75 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,724.98 -22.99 (-1.32%)
S&P 500 989.62 -4.47 (-0.45%)

[Coventina]

24. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning everyone. :hi:
What's this I hear about Julie being tombstoned?

Today's reading brings the hexagram PROGRESS changing to INNOCENCE.
PROGRESS would seem to be positive, however, Ching threw in a changing line that states,"You are restrained from advancing because others lack confidence in you." And another one, "Do not think about the gains you might make or the possible setbacks that could befall you." This says to me that today the market will be held back by lack of confident investors, but that losses probably won't be significant (boy, am I ever going out on limb! Scary!)

The basic message of INNOCENCE is Ching's instruction to "examine your motives."

[JNelson6563]

27. you brave girl

as you can see none of us has the confidence to predict anything. The only thing I know for sure is markets will close at 4 pm. haha

Motives play into this a lot. I think the main motive for the regular folks is merely Survival.

As to the Tombstone, well all I can say is that reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. ;-)

Julie

On Edit: I missed another act of Bravery: Maeve predicted that a Duck and Cover strategy was the way to go. I concur. :-)

[Maeve]

26. 10:26 and a bit of a roller coaster today

Dow 9,063.80 -30.79 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,714.22 -33.75 (-1.93%)
S&P 500 985.64 -8.45 (-0.85%)

[JNelson6563]

28. I had one eye on it

for some time and it seemed to me that when the DOW went positive the S&P just pointed and laughed. As you can see it seems to be trading way ahead of the DOW.

But hey, the PPT has my sympathies, it's just too much to manipulate and index with 500 components, yanno?

10:30 and it's still an interesting picture.


Dow 9,066.51 -28.08 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,715.42 -32.55 (-1.86%)
S&P 500 986.04 -8.05 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 3.991% +0.046


Wonder if the DOW will surrender any time soon....

Julie

[ozymandius]

29. 10:34 (I thought tech stocks were in the driver seat today.)

DJIA 9,063.77 -30.82 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ 1,714.48 -33.49 (-1.92%)
S&P 500 985.77 -8.32 (-0.84%)

[JNelson6563]

31. they are

it's just that they are driving the wrong way. haha

Julie

[ozymandius]

30. 10:39 and the Nasdaq loss at more than 2%.

DJIA 9,054.39 -40.20 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ 1,710.27 -37.70 (-2.16%)
S&P 500 984.27 -9.82 (-0.99%)

[Maeve]

32. 11:02 and still down

Hmm..would the Nasdaq have curbs kicked in now, since it's down 2% ? I think so, but I'm not totally sure...

Dow 9,079.95 -14.64 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,712.10 -35.87 (-2.05%)
S&P 500 986.48 -7.61 (-0.77%)

[ozymandius]

33. Good question Maeve.

Do all the markets have curbs? If so, do the markets operate under the same curb rules?

at 11:16
DJIA 9,085.41 -9.18 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ 1,714.23 -33.74 (-1.93%)
S&P 500 987.23 -6.86 (-0.69%)

[JNelson6563]

34. I don't know about

Nasdaq curbs but I can tell you things are still kinda dark at 11:31


Dow 9,071.97 -22.62 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,712.73 -35.24 (-2.02%)
S&P 500 986.05 -8.04 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.008% +0.063


What a day!

Julie

[ozymandius]

35. It burns! It burns! OH! My eyes!

12:53
DJIA 9,040.87 -53.72 (-0.59%)
NASDAQ 1,700.61 -47.36 (-2.71%)
S&P 500 981.54 -12.46 (-1.25%)

[trogdor]

38. It BURNS us!

[trogdor]

39. A little dated , but I found this while searching for the Gollum pic.

http://www.prospect.org/webfeatures/2003/03/gourevitch-a-03-12.html
A little dated (and off-topic), but I found this while searching for the Gollum pic.

We hates the United Nations. No! No! We loves the United Nations.

The administration has managed to argue that America must go to war because the United Nations is ineffectual and irrelevant -- and that America must go to war to safeguard that institution's integrity: "If we need to act, we will act. And we really don't need United Nations approval to do so," Bush said at his press conference last Thursday. But back in September, he said, "How we deal with this problem will help determine the fate of a multilateral body, which has been unilaterally ignored by Saddam Hussein."

We hates military rule. No! No! We loves military rule.

National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice said last week that the United States would not impose military rule on Iraq after Hussein is deposed. "We believe that when Iraq has been liberated from this terrible regime, the Iraqi people will be perfectly capable of running their own affairs," she said. Of course, that's a far cry from the administration's position last fall, when this headline in The Guardian announced, "US plans military rule and occupation of Iraq."

--more--

[ozymandius]

41. Oh, it's Smeogol! I was wondering where you got a pic of my dentist. n/t

[Maeve]

36. 12:55 and not doing any better (with blather)

12:30PM: Market continues to show little life as the indices are virtually unchanged following the rise in the Philadelphia Fed Index... Like the Empire State Index - in which it shares similar boundaries and industries - the report topped the consensus estimate of 7.0, with a reading of 8.3... A sharp rise in the key new orders and shipments portions, combined with the first positive reading in the employment component in eight months, drove expansion in the region's manufacturing base for the third consecutive month...
In spite of this, the market has continued to trade at moderately lower levels as valuation concerns remain at the forefront..

12:05PM: Like the previous two days, this morning's trade has been unable to convert encouraging news on the economic and corporate fronts into a winning session for stocks... Underlying concerns surrounding the near-term, overextended nature of the indices have undercut the market's recent bullish momentum, and traders have chosen instead to sell into the solid quarterly earnings reports
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,033.52 -61.07 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,698.25 -49.72 (-2.84%)
S&P 500 980.54 -13.46 (-1.35%)

[JNelson6563]

37. where have all the lemmings gone?

Seems they have already jumped the cliff and there are none left to over-react to the crumbs.......

This storm has been brewing for a long time. There will be no making the bad man stop any time soon.

Just a few minutes later (1:02)

Dow 9,032.89 -61.70 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,696.85 -51.12 (-2.92%)
S&P 500 980.25 -13.75 (-1.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.959% +0.014


Man the Nasdaq is taking a serious thrashing! Glad to see some $$$ flowing into the 10yrs though.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

40. Is it just me or

does this day scream PPT to you all?


Dow 9,037.86 -56.73 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 1,699.69 -48.28 (-2.76%)
S&P 500 981.24 -12.76 (-1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 3.968% +0.023

1:42 reading

Nasdaq way, way down, S&P down nearly 13 pts and the DOW hanging in the 50-something range? Counter-intuitive.

Julie

[ozymandius]

42. It smells a bit.

Another reason that the Dow is at its current level is that people who buy on margin may have sold assets in the Dow to cover losses in the Nasdaq. This is not uncommon.

However, the losses, respective of each is rather lop-sided.

To the point of the Dow's suspicious holding pattern at -50: it smells like manipulation because of said lopsidedness. Now that "Fisher the Fixer" is gone, I wonder who could be doing it. Or, rather, has Fisher just tendered his resignation and awaiting a proper bail-out point?

My financial advisor has told me that that serious investors look at the S&P, not the Dow. Reason being: the S&P is a broader cross section of stocks that spells a more accurate picture of the market's health. The Dow is a small group of mega-corporations. As the group is small, manipulation is easier to manage.

2:04 numbers

DJIA 9,049.56 -45.03 (-0.50%)
NASDAQ 1,702.15 -45.82 (-2.62%)
S&P 500 982.68 -11.32 (-1.14%)

[ozymandius]

43. You folks have a great day. I'm heading to work.

See ya tomorrow.

[Maeve]

44. 2:37 and the pain continues

Not deepening; just a slow bleed..........The problem? "intense selling activity"

Dow 9,053.03 -41.56 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,701.71 -46.26 (-2.65%)
S&P 500 982.78 -11.22 (-1.13%)

[JNelson6563]

45. cannot stop the bleeding

Dow 9,037.86 -56.73 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 1,699.69 -48.28 (-2.76%)
S&P 500 981.24 -12.76 (-1.28%)
10-Yr Bond 3.968% +0.023

2:51 Will we see that miracle last hour upswing? Seems to me they have barely kept the panic at bay but hey, what do I know??

Julie

[Maeve]

46. No miracle hour, this!

3:30PM: Sellers retain tight control over the indices' movement as the market enters its final half hour of regular session trading... As it has since Tuesday, upbeat commentary on corporate America has served as a catalyst for profit-taking rather than a rallying point for further buying... A market that has run up since March has, in some respects, already discounted the news coming out of the June quarter reporting season, and as such, companies such as IBM (IBM 82.92 -3.82) with in-line reports have found their stocks the subjects of intense selling pressure...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,028.41 -66.18 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 1,696.77 -51.20 (-2.93%)
S&P 500 979.91 -14.09 (-1.42%)

[ozymandius]

47. Well, I'm back, with news.

My work day was delayed due to unforseen circumstances.

Titanic Concerns Over Freddie Mac

NEW YORK - The recent disclosure that Freddie Mac will have to put back some $6.5 billion in gains from its derivative operations is not the good news story it pretends. This was not a case of sloppy record keeping or intentional earnings misstatement, but rather their normal accounting practice before the Enron and Worldcom scandals came to light. The people in charge of Freddie didn't get their walking papers for such prudence, but rather, for the imprudence that generated this bounty. In short, they took huge gambles in derivatives beyond the level needed to hedge their mortgage holdings and then held back some of the profits from this as a hedge against events turning against them.

Their exposure here is to hedge contracts valued at over $1 trillion, hence $6.5 billion is a small reserve should interest rates begin rising. The concern is that if rates rise, Freddie (nyse: FRE - news - people ) could implode much like the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund or the Orange County investment fund. Only this time, the fallout could cause a system-wide financial panic.

story

[Maeve]

48. Is that the sound of a bubble deflating?

Don't ya hate it when the best you can hope for is a "ssssssssssss" instead of a "POP!!!" ?

[Maeve]

49. And in the end....

DOW looks like there were some shorts being covered at the end of the day (slight rise toward the light), but the Nasdaq just trailed off...

Dow 9,050.82 -43.77 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,698.02 -49.95 (-2.86%)
S&P 500 981.73 -12.27 (-1.23%)

[JNelson6563]

50. So that's it eh?

After keeping a close eye all day I had a sudden convergence of folks near the end so I missed it all. Still haven't caught Microsoft's numbers....


Well Blair is still yammerin' away with all his brown-nose phrases but the real show will be the press conference. Wonder how that will play into the markets tomorrow.

G'nite Marketeers!

Julie