Chinese economy keeps expanding above 9%

[bemildred]

The Chinese economy is forecasted to decelerate slightly in the second half although overall 2005 growth will remain at a quick pace given the massive influx of foreign investment and greater credit flexibility, according to the China Securities Journal.

GDP is expected to reach 9,4% in 2005 but next year should contract to 8,9% says a report from the Chinese Social Sciences Academy. This means that second half growth will slow down from the 9,5% recorded in January-June 2005. The Academy forecasts consumer inflation at 1,9% this year and 2,1% in 2006.

China so far has managed eight consecutive quarters at over 9% and analysts forecast that the third 2005 quarter will also show a vigorous expansion given recent monetary, trade and investment figures.

China’s Central Bank reported that money supply expanded 17,9% in the last twelve months ended September 30, which is considered high and could be a signal that authorities are flexing their tight control over credit.

MercoPress

[Enhancer]

1. They better watch it!

What goes up must come down! You see.. Aw, shucks! I really can't do the whole disgruntled-jealous-american-worker/businessman impression that good.

Go China!

Quality of their products is getter better. Especially when it comes optics and similar. They are buying off rights to quality deigns left and right, in addition with coming up with some ingenious stuff by themselves..

[tatertop]

2. The quality is excellent when they want it to be

They are building up as we are breaking down

[aquart]

8. THIS is what we have to fear, not terrorism.

Terrorism takes out a few of us. This takes out all of us. Even, eventually, our stupid rich guys.

[Enhancer]

9. Contact your congressman...

...and demand that USAF bombs every industrial center in China. No?

Or option 2:

Produce quality goods in competitive quantities. No?





You pick.

[aquart]

26. Produce them where? Financed by whom?

We have shuttered, obsolete factories and no current steel or tool and die industries.

Our money is all overseas. We would have to have foreign financing and who would invest in a nation governed by Weird George? He lost a CITY.

[tatertop]

61. Ask anyone who has seen some of the new, modern factories

The workmanship is nothing short of amazing.
They are going to clobber us on all fronts.

[msongs]

10. yeah they are the "file sharers" of international commerce:

what's ours is ours and what's yours is ours too.

and the slave labor wages don't hurt, bet walmart wishes it could pay $1.00 a day :-)

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[kostya]

13. Buying or stealing the rights, whatever. I've been urging my kids to

forget the Romance languages and learn Chinese, Japanese, Korean, if they expect to get a decent job after college. We are definitely going to become an economic backwater in about 20-30 years.

[StrafingMoose]

57. I agree, China diserves their prosperity century...

But I wonder if enough of the wealth goes to the people (China's labour) who make it possible so we can import things from so far away and have our whole economic chain making its (sometimes real fat) cut once it gets here.

When Mexico gets jobs 'stolen' by China, one has to wonder what kind of policies the Communist Party down there enforces on its people. (No I'm not 'anti-communist' per-se, it just happens to be the name of the party who ruled this country for more than 50 years).

[madrchsod]

3. meanwhile the red army is suppressing

revolts of the peasant class across china..so much for the revolution

[Zynx]

5. They are basically a fascist state now.

You have an increasing concentration of wealth in the hands of a relatively few cronies of the government who are running the state companies while the government is oppressing its people daily.

[Skittles]

11. just curious but

how is that different from America?

[Zynx]

16. I never said we weren't trending that way. However, we still have more

rights by far than China does. For instance, I dare you to even try any kind of protest in China against their government. I dare you.

[phgnome]

32. Civil rights are a luxury

And can be taken away by a government at the time of economic demise.

There is nothing in natural law that prevents our governments from pulling our civil rights from underneath our noses. To ensure that this doesn't happen to us, we must ensure that we maintain our economic competitiveness in the global economy.

There is a VERY STRONG correlation between these factors. Don't ever forget this...

[phgnome]

30. Red Army may be backed by patriotism

I'm going to disagree with you.

It's much easier to attract flies with honey than with vinegar.

Patriotism is at an all-time high because of economic prosperity. The corporations are ensuring that even the peasants live better than they did three decades ago. A lot of this can be attributed to the union movement in North America pushing beyond their limits and not observing the equilibrium point of global minimum wage. Unions should also observe the fact that many people in this world are living below the poverty line. Because those people have absolutely nothing to eat and no water to drink, and very little per capita farmable land, people are willing to work for cheaper. I'm sorry to say this, but this is a factor that really needs to be considered in the discussion of achieving a global economic equilibrium in standard of living and competitiveness in the global economy.

North American unions should really hire some economists to ensure that they are maintaining competitiveness in the global economy.

The fact China has sent their second manned mission into space only adds to the patriotism and the individual's commitment to China's economic success. It also adds to the global investor's perception of the increasing sophistication of industrialization in China and the belief that China will one day surpass the US in this aspect. This perception of the global investor, in turn, increases China's ability to generate capital on the market.

I hate to keep harping on this but it was an EXCEPTIONALLY BAD move for Kerry to propose to make budgetary cuts to the space program in the last presidential election. A large portion of the US economy is based in the capital market. Perceptions of techological (and rippling economic) developments in modern markets are based in technological developments. The space exploration industry plays a HUGE role in shaping the global investor's perception of a country's role in the future of the global economy. Alone, the fact that the country is divided on this matter, is indicative of troubles in the future to the capital market. Should the two parties have been united in their commitment to technological developments in space exploration -- this would have made a huge difference to the world's perception of the US economy today.

Democrats and Republicans need to put their heads together on this matter. The US needs a boost in patriotism and this is the very thing that will do it.

[ElectroPrincess]

58. The last thing we need IMO is a *boost* in Patriotism ...

I love my country but when most people talk about "a boost in Patriotism" it is, a term that denotes superficial shows of loyalty.

What this country needs, is a return to "a sense of community." We need to help raise up those who live in poverty around us by volunteering our time to county and/or local assistance programs.

This is seemingly the UGLIEST AMERICAN ERA. We prize commodities and EVEN items to display our so called Patriotism is outsourced, i.e., look at your plastic USA flag? = Made in China.

No, now is a time to DEMAND that our elected officials take care of the working and middle classes as well as our *fellow Americans* who presently live in abject poverty. Accomplishing the forgoing is what I would consider the ULTIMATE in demonstrated "goodwill" for humanity AND GENUINE "patriotism" (demonstrating concern and compassion for our fellow Americans).

These large multinational corporations are NOT our friends. Especially the media monopoly of Our Country should be broken up and REGULATED. Yes, that would be another truly patriotic goal for stout hearted AMERICANS! :patriot: :hi:

[daleo]

59. In other words: Let's race!

Meet you at the bottom.

[enid602]

4. China

Too bad over 65% of their population lives off less than $1 per day.

[Enhancer]

7. But if a loaf of bread costs 5 cents?

I remember few years ago some Senators were parroting some anti-Chinese propaganda, on how Chinese workers made only few dollars a day. The absolute lack of knowledge when it comes to on how economies work among the American population is understandable, given the current education system and general cultural and intellectual decay, but to see such nonsense coming from elected government representatives is surprising and at a same time quite entertaining.

[Zynx]

17. Even when you adjust for purchasing power parity, it still isn't even

close to the US or any Western country for that matter. Most of their people are still in third world poverty even with the PPP adjustments.

[1932]

14. ARe you sure about that?

I think in the last 5 years they've gone from high 200 millions to low 100 millions below a dollar a day. With a billion people, that's significantly less than 65% of the population.

I think they've also totally eliminated hunger by some abstract measure, which is better than many countries can say (including the US).

[Zynx]

18. I really don't trust Chinese claims in that regard.

If you think our economic data is unreliable, their's is a joke.

[1932]

19. Those are world bank numbers. And even if they were wrong,

they'd have to be wrong by a factor of 5 or 6 for your number to be close.

Where did you get your number?

[Zynx]

20. I didn't claim to have a number.

World Bank data is reliant on the reporting of the countries they are following.

[1932]

21. Your number was 65% under $1. Where did you get that?

Oops. Just realized you're not enid.

In any event, I don't think 65% is anywhere close to correct.

I'm also pretty sure the world bank has teams in the countries which do thorough research. IIRC, the IMF sends teams in for a short period of time, but the world bank has people permanently in the countries where they work.

[Zynx]

22. You are confusing me with another poster.

[enid602]

41. PBS

I was the one who posted it; I heard it on PBS' Nightly News this past Tuesday. They are running a series of segments on China.

[1932]

47. That wasn't a percentage of the entire population.

Here's the transcript:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/july-dec05/solman_10-11.html

They said that 60 percent of china's peasants survive on a dollar a day. Although it's not clear who qualifies as peasant, not all Chinese are peasants.

A UN website had this info:

Estimates of the extent of poverty vary depending on which indicators one chooses. Using the government poverty line, China’s rural poor decreased dramatically from 250 million in 1978 (30% of the rural population) to 42 million in 1998 (4.6% of the rural population). Using a standard international poverty line of $1 per day would result in a substantially greater number of absolute poor, but the trend in reduction of poverty is still confirmed. The proportion of the poor in the western provinces increased from less than half of all China’s rural poor in 1988 to more than two thirds in 1996 because poverty reduction efforts have not been as successful in these regions.

http://www.unchina.org/index.html

And another website had this info:

The yawning rich-poor wealth gap is increasingly worrisome for the government of once-egalitarian China, with some 90 million Chinese out of a population of 1.3 billion still living on less than one US dollar a day.

http://www.thingsasian.com/goto_article/article.3440.html

Another site had this:

China's success, in fact, illustrates that point, since the number of its people living in absolute poverty (on less than one US dollar a day) has dropped from 377 million people in 1990 to 173 million by 2003.

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=30077

[wickerwoman]

27. I'll trust my own experience

over a number that you have yet to provide a link for.

I've lived in China for about three years now and have travelled to most of the major cities and quite a few small backwater towns. While there are pockets of poverty in minority regions, you simply will not find areas in China that compare to the absolutely bleak, grinding, hopeless destitution that you can find in places like India, Russia or even inner-city America. Go to the ghetto in Elizabeth, New Jersey and then come to China and try to find anything like it. There are cities in Russia where 85% of middle school children list "prostitute" or "contract killer" as the profession they aspire to. It just wouldn't happen in China. You drive down the street in India or Peru and your car will be swarmed with starving street children in rags selling garbage. Wouldn't happen in China. People here aren't living high on the hog by Western standards, but the middle class is expanding exponentially and even the poorest citizens have a place to sleep and food to eat.

Statistically, they live on a dollar a day, but many own their own homes so they don't pay rent and you can buy enough food for a day for 50 or 75 cents.

[cap]

43. not quite the complete picture...

there have been 57,000 strikes in China. All is not well. Especially the day laborers from the rural areas.

[wickerwoman]

52. I'd be the last person to say all is perfect in the PRC

but I'm continually amazed at the level of misinformation concerning China that appears regularly both here and in the mainstream media.

57,000 strikes? Is that number yearly or does it cover the last 50 years? It's interesting that another poster said something like "just try protesting the Chinese government" and here we have 57,000 strikes a year going on. And the first twenty hits on Google are all stories about strike leaders being released as part of the newer friendlier policy towards labor disputes.

Those who say China is an oppressive communist backwater that will never become a democracy have been ignoring all the recent steps taken towards libralization. Just last month Wen Jiabo announced his plan to push for direct elections at the EU-China summit. He said, "China will press for democratic progress, unswervingly reestablish democracy, including direct elections. This system will be realized step by step."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GI20Ad01.html

I really can't understand why even supposedly liberal people
seem so determined to see China as a threat and an enemy. If you want to see a threat to democracy, look in your own backyard.

[cap]

56. there are major labor problems that are not being reported..

the Chinese government wants it suppressed... and so do the Western investors and corporations who do business in China.

The Iron Rice Bowl is being shattered... the system that gave security to workers. People are very unhappy about it.

People are getting mad at the increase in pollution. Major western companies that have gone to China are not following proper regulations.

The first twenty hits on Google will not show these stories. You've really gotta dig. For a start, try the strike about Uniden, a Japanese electronics component manufacturer.

Remember, page rank Google is determined by popularity. It makes no claims to objectivity.

[peace2all]

23. Weird numbers

There are 373 million mobile phone users in China (http://www.infoworld.com/article/05/09/30/HNchinaphones_1.html - that's around 35% of the population), so this must mean that everyone that earns more than $1 a day has a cell phone.

[enid602]

42. China

I believe that China's current population is about 1.3 billion. The key to remember is that China's manufacturing revolution has ocurred in Eastern and Southeastern China. The hinterland and particularly Western China have not been affected. Many in these areas are subsistence farmers.

[phgnome]

28. not a fair comparison

Not a fair comparison that you're making -- considering the public debt status of the two nations.

Perhaps China is closer to the middle ground and the US is the one living beyond its means.

The per capita public debt in the US is about $145,000 per capita. However, China is a creditor nation, so it can afford to have people living on US$1 per day.

It's all a matter of perspective.

[ckramer]

35. but food is cheap over there

The food one dollar can buy in China probably is what you can buy in the supermarket here for 20 - 30 dallars?

It's a comparison of apple to orange.

[enid602]

44. China

True, the vast majority of Chinese are subsistence farmers, so they don't have to buy too much food with their dollar a day income. The yuan is still ridiculously over-valued vis a vis the dollar, so a middle-class worker in Shanghai making $10K (in yuan) per year can purchase about $30K worth of goods. Nonetheless, the vast majority of Chinese are terribly poor, and the Communist Party must think of ways to pacify them in the face of growing inequity of salaries. The growing number of people moving to the cities to escape their dollar a day existence provides an unlimited amount of cheap labor to be exploited.

I have read many times here on DU that Nafta has been a failure for the US because of cheap Mexican labor; one must remember that the US demanded (as a prerequisite to enter Nafta) that Mexico join the WTO. As a result, Mexico, too has been flooded by cheap Chinese goods, and their loss of manufacturing jobs during Nafta has been greater than ours. Next time you visit the souvenir shops along the US-Mexican border, check for 'made in China' decals when shopping for knick-knacks.

[BlueWolf]

6. China's economy grows at our economy's expense

China's trade SURPLUS is enormous, while our trade DEFICIT is enormous. Nations become wealthy by exporting goods and services, thereby importing money. It's how the US economy became so large. Before we started offshoring everything, the US produced highly desirable goods that the rest of the world bought, giving the US a great influx of wealth through a huge trade surplus. I know people born and raised in China, and they say the changes there are incredible. There is still much poverty and suffering, but things are improving dramatically. It's great that poverty is being chipped away there, but I must lament the increase in poverty here, as our nation's wealth slowly flows away.

[lovuian]

12. But our their workers getting their share of those profits!!!

Nope workers who get 30 dollars a month if they are lucky can't buy very much!!!

[VegasWolf]

15. Bush has them right where he wants them!

[cliss]

24. THIS is the most frightening thread on the DU

all year. Forget the threads about Iraq; ignore N. Korea for the time being. Overlook Hugo Chavez and Peak Oil for a moment.

Focus on China. THIS is the dreaded power, building on the horizon. Think about a Communist country owning the U.S.

My friends get excited about jumping in the car and going down to the local Crate & Barrel. They LOVE all the cute things they can buy down there. 100% of everything they bring home in their SUV's is 'MADE IN CHINA'. We have made a Faustian Bargain.

[VegasWolf]

25. Why, we could never stay #1 anyway with Bush destroying the

country, its economics, its military, and its reputation. Rome fell, and we didn't last a third of the time that Rome did. I look at China, the newly forming "United States of South America" with Venezuela and Brazil taking the lead, as the new power countries of the 21st Century. The only thing to do now is play the Chinese Stock Market, it is nice to see prices climbing for a change as opposed to the Dow and NASDAQ. Too many people bought into that stupid idea that the US is God's ordained country. That might be true if there were a god.

[cire4]

29. By the time China is powerful enough to own us, they won't

be a Communist country. The single party rule of the CCP will be history and some form of representative government will be in place.

At which point the United States will have to confront a situation in which the primary challenge to its power doesn't come from an oppressive despot regime (like the Soviet Union), but rather from another democratic country. It will be interesting to see how the US propaganda wizards spin that one...

[phgnome]

33. propaganda

I believe the spin machine has already started on that one...

[ckramer]

34. Don't bet on it.

Instead, I think communism of some sort probably will revive in America given the fact that people are poor and poor here. You need a revolution to take care of that. Democracy failed the poor.

[Tempest]

50. I wouldn't bet on communism in the U.S.

But most definitely fascism.

We're already seeing signs of it here.

[Neshanic]

36. That is one of the funniest posts ever. China democracy....

[cire4]

37. Was the notion of South Korean and Taiwanese

democracy equally as humorous when both countries were ruled by oppressive military dictatorships and undergoing burgeoning economic growth in the 60s and 70s?

China will be a democratic country. The CCP knows it, the United States knows it, and every person in China knows it.....

[Neshanic]

39. Dream on.....

[cire4]

40. Nice rebuttal....

No dreaming required...

[Tempest]

45. If the current trend in China continues

They will be more Socialist than democratic.

[cire4]

48. Explain....China has been rapidly trending away from socialism

and embracing capitalism. That has undoubtedly been the trend for the past 25 years.

But since socialism and democracy are not mutually exclusive, I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say...

[Tempest]

49. China was never socialist

Not even in theory, let alone practice.

Mao may have used the term "socialism", but he was a communist through and through.


And you defined a false dichotomy.

Socialism is a system of poltics, while capitalism is a system of economics. You can be both socialist and capitalist, just as you can be democratic and capitalist.


Yes, China is embracing capitalism. But you originally said they would one day be democratic.

Based upon my research of China's society and government, they are trending away from communism and towards socialism, not democracy. They still believe democracy, as practiced in the U.S., doesn't work for them.

[cire4]

53. What is a socialist political system then?

I know there are dozens of ways to define "socialism," but it has always been my understanding that it is conventionally used to refer to an economic system since it spells out very little of what a political structure would look like or what political institutions would exist in a socialist system. It defines more economically than politically. But I would be very interested in what you think defines socialism politically? Particularly, how can a country be both socialist and capitalist at the same time? It is clear that a country can share both democracy and socialism. Just looks at Sweden, Venezuela, or the dozens of European political parties who profess just that.

I am also confused with some of your logic. You claim:

China is trending away from Communism (economic system) to socialism (political system - by your definition). Wouldn't that be logically impossible?

And yes, it is true that many people in China do not think democracy will work for China. Alot of people soured on the notion after witnessing the disaster that was Russia. However, that does not mean they will hold that belief long term. I have studied with many Chinese college students and every one of them believes that China will be a democratic country in the future. But they do not believe the country is ready or can handle such dramatic political change at the moment because the institutions that are necessary to support democracy have yet to take shape. They really do not want to see their country turn into another Russia....

[VegasWolf]

38. Why, they already have so much money that their citizens can afford the

highest rates of elective plastic surgery anywhere in the entire world.

[Tempest]

51. I also read China is the largest importer of luxury cars in the world

And one thing not mentioned in the U.S. media is that China's housing boom makes the U.S. housing boom look stagnant.

[phgnome]

31. How so?

Because another country has figured out another way to make things cheaper and better?

This is the global economy we're talking about. WE need to be more competitive. WE need to be smarter and more saavy.

It is OUR responsibility to be more competitive and to be better. It is not their responsiblity not to be demonized.

There is a huge difference in the two. Think about it...

[enid602]

46. China

The real reason we owe China so much money is that they keep buying our Treasury Bills, as that's the only way China can maintain its one-sided exports to the US. Without these huge exports, they cannot maintain their 9%+ per year increases in GDP. It's a house of cards, because the T-bills they buy might well prove to be poor investments. Remember, their imperfect economic reasoning is caused by decades of communist rule, and they've yet to create a sophisticated banking system which can keep up with their growing economy. Most banks are state-owned, and rely on 20 year old technology. All are in danger of failure, and most banks in China have non-performing assets that range from 20 to 40% of their total loan portfolios.

[bemildred]

54. True.

But politically, I don't think they can afford to stop.
So eventually there will be a crash. But they do get to
keep the manufacturing capacity, if they can figure out
how to feed it.

[Indy Lurker]

55. My co-worker visited some customers in China

and he was told the Chinese Economy will be slowing down a Little, because companies are looking to other countries for cheaper labor. China is getting too expensive !!!

Where he went the workers were were costing the company $3 per hour. I don't know how much of that went to pay vs other employee compensation. They worked 60 hrs a week, no OT.

This was a high tech manufacturing plant, and the employees were very happy to get this pay.

My co-worker confirmed that the Chinese workers appeared genuinely happy, and were very hard workers.

About 1/3 of the workers were from distant parts of China, and lived at the factory, 8 bunk beds to a room, but apparently the "good" pay made it worth while. (or else their living conditions at home were worse.)

My co-worker was also told there would be Chinese cars for sale in the US in about 3 yrs, selling for $3000 each.

[ckramer]

62. "My co-worker was also told there would be Chinese cars for sale in the US

"... in the US in about 3 yrs, selling for $3000 each."


Will GM be completely bankrupted by then? And Bush' approval rating is at 5%?

[Conservativesux]

60. "Attention Walmart shoppers"! "You job is on sale in China"

Enough said :(

[Rex]

63. Here they come!

When you stand stagnant like Boosh if forcing our country to do, expect someone else to step up to the plate.

[callady]

64. Not enough World to go around for all of this growth

The entire paradigm of economics is a disease that is gobbling the planet.

[Orrin_73]

65. I found a nice article

You can read about the salaries of the chinese workers. How in the world are we gonna compete with chinese earning slave wages.
CHINA'S RISING ECONOMY