STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 7 October

[ozymandius]

Friday October 7, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 106 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 291 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 355 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1412
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 6, 2005

Dow... 10,287.10 -30.26 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq... 2,084.08 -18.94 (-0.90%)
S&P 500... 1,191.49 -4.90 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.37% +0.01 (+0.11%)
Gold future... 475.00 +5.70 (+1.20%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[salin]

1. only able to keep track way early am or long after the thread

is over (i.e., long after close) - but am I correct that the DOW had risen to just over 10,600 at the beginning of the week? And if so, hasn't it been awhile since we have seen a whole week (okay, not yet a whole week - but more than two days in a row) with such a steep downward trend? Is bushco going to take us back into the 9,000s next week? And if so - how long has it been since we have dipped below 10,000? Seems like we have been at an equilibrium of between 10,200 - 10,699 for a couple of months. Has been a very "sideways" market.

[ozymandius]

3. The markets are sideways.

Range bound trading has the Dow vacillating within the 10,200 to 10,600 range. Energy stocks seem to be the bugaboo. When oil rises unexpectedly, a huge segment of the market suffers as money flows into energy stocks. As oil futures dip unexpectedly, short traders find themselves upside-down from having bought on the upswing and then unload their holdings.

Of course, there is more to the mechanisms than this. But the keystone is energy with everyone paying attention to this area.

The Dow touched just above 10,000 in mid-April of this year. The Dow went below 10,000 in late October of last year.

When the Dow goes below 10,000 agains is anyone's educated guess. Try asking hedge fund managers. It's what they do. My inclination says that a weak holiday shopping season will drive the indeces lower. If retailers cannot make a good showing at this time of year then they will not have another chance at a good showing for another three quarters.

[salin]

13. the pyschological effect of trading range

seems to be a part of the game - which is why 2002 was so chaotic - there wasn't enough institutional pull (i.e., big institutional investors such as large pension funds, and big insurance and bank funds) to balance out the wide psych swings of massive numbers of scared smaller investors - combined with the bigger playing short term investors (those trying to make quick up and down bucks in the short term by betting on those psych swings - and thus amplifying the swings.) Now that there has been a long-term (eg more than a quarter) of a pretty stable market,) these less stable factors seem tobe in check.

But the full downward trend this week - with at least one day with a big drop which was not countered in the next two days (which has been a trend that has kept the market more at less in equilibrium) - makes me wonder if we are potentially getting to a tipping point (brought on by the now cleary longer term higher gas prices and the predictions of another record high cost year for heating energy - but this year's high being predicted as having not just new "highs" (in terms of costs) but anywhere from 35% to 75% increase depending upon region of the country.) Is there a place where the market starts going into big swings based more on the psych factors (at such a large scale in terms of #s of investors) that the short termers start doing bigger up and down bets that amplify the swings?

The factors you cite are real economic indicators (I think the market is often disconnected from real economic indicators, these days) - and if we were already in a place where big swings were again in play (I mean going up and down 1000 or more points in the span of a week or two - and then bouncing around for a little while followed by another up or down of 1000 or more points before bouncing around at a new equilibrium for awhile) - then what would the serious signs of a weakening economy do?

I have no idea - and while I have followed big economic trends in this country for quite awhile - I only started watching the markets trends (with you and others) during the period of huge swings just prior to the second round of corporate implosions in 2002. All that said - this week seems to show some different behavior than what we have seen for quite awhile - which leads me to speculate. In past periods I would guess that there may be a slightly lower trend followed by a new stabilization point - but perhaps instead we are seeing the beginning of a different pattern.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Analyst Timing is Off at Key Market Turning Points

Last Thursday, the technically damaged Homebuilder stocks got a much needed sentiment salvo, courtesy of Deutsche Securities who initiated coverage of the homebuilders with a “Buy” rating. This “good news” was followed up promptly Monday morning when Standard and Poor’s announced that homebuilder Lennar Homes (LEN) was going to be included in the S&P 500. These two pieces of positive sentiment resulted in healthy daily rallies in the homebuilding stocks. Will the analyst upgrades result in a sustainable uptrend? As part of the crowd, analysts tend to be right and bullish through impulse waves, 3 and 5 of typical 5-wave advances; but the bullishness becomes misguided and dangerous during important changes in trend. The technical charts of the homebuilders are suggesting that after an amazing run, these stocks have seen their top-of-the-real-estate-bubble tops. Now is probably the time to break with the bullish analysts. Tonight I will examine analyst opinion changes near and after the technology market top because real estate stocks are likely to behave similarly.

There is some relatively recent precedent for the correctness of parting with analyst opinion after a major top. Technology stocks were among the most loved throughout their 1990’s bubble. They led the market as a continuous rhythm of positive sentiment was drummed into the speculating public by Wall Street analysts. For the most part, the positive beat continued even after the music stopped and the Nasdaq market topped. As the Nasdaq started its trek toward its October 2002 bottom, there were analyst upgrades with a peppering of downgrades. It was not until most technology stocks lost one-half of their value or more that the majority of analysts turned negative on these stocks. While there were a few well timed negative analyst calls, the broad majority of Wall Street analysts were the most wrong at the exact moment when being wrong turned out to be most expensive.

-cut-

Today’s Market

Today’s technical market is almost as compelling as the fundamental market in that there are crucial crosscurrents which are bound to resolve themselves by the holiday shopping season. Two weeks ago, this writer declared, “Say Hello to the Bear Market in Consumer Stocks.” For the moment, this turned out to be, as they say, “a good call.” Yet, although there is nothing in the intermediate term charts of most consumer stocks to refute this call, there is action in the oil market that suggests there may be one more good run in US consumer spending before Christmas. Also, recent stock action suggests that one more US consumer spending spree will be sufficient to propel consumer stocks to a strong and tradable rally soon.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Oil steadies near $62

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil steadied near $62 on Friday as the market sought to balance weakening fuel demand in the world's top consumer, the United States, against lost supplies of gasoline and heating oil from U.S. and French refiners.

Washington's readiness to use emergency oil reserves this winter has helped drag prices $5 lower this week, although they are still 42 percent higher than the start of the year.

Strikers in France have closed the country's biggest refinery and blockaded a key Mediterranean oil port, threatening the shipment of fuel across the Atlantic.

With 10 U.S. refineries still shut after hurricanes and Gulf of Mexico gas output way down, few U.S. consumers can look forward to the winter with confidence.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Oil hits two-month low as US cars idle

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil slid to its lowest level in two months on Thursday as U.S. drivers eased off the gas and an energy official suggested Washington may release emergency heating oil for winter.

News the world's top consumer was burning less fuel and the comments by the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration allayed concern Americans could run short of fuel with 10 refineries still shut by hurricanes.

U.S. crude settled down $1.43 at $61.36 a barrel after having briefly dipped below $61, a nine-week low, in its fifth straight day of losses. Gasoline fell 6.73 cents to $1.8405 a gallon after Wednesday's 11-cent tumble.

"We're not a million miles away from where we were before Hurricane Katrina," said Emanuele Ravano, head of portfolio management at PIMCO in London. "In terms of miles driven, U.S. motorists are being a little more cautious. But it remains open to question whether this is a two-week phenomenon."

more

[UpInArms]

23. Energy Futures: Crude @ $62.15 bbl

8:24am 10/07/05 NOV UNLEADED GASOLINE UP 1.95C AT $1.86 A GALLON

8:24am 10/07/05 NOV HEATING OIL FUTURES UP 2.45C AT $1.9752 A GALLON

8:25am 10/07/05 NOV NATGAS FUTURES UP 2C AT $13.40 PER MILLION BTUS

8:24am 10/07/05 NOV CRUDE FUTURES UP 79C AT $62.15 A BARREL

[UpInArms]

42. Crude modestly higher ($61.75), natural gas falls in early trade ($13.22

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.4296082523-845216778&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude is up 39 cents at $61.75 a barrel in early dealings. It's trading almost 7% below last week's close of $66.24. "Fears of further demand destruction could combine with more restarts of Gulf Coast refineries to keep prices relatively close to those lows into next week's inventory reports," Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA, said in a note to clients. November natural gas is down 15.5 cents at $13.22 per million British thermal units, under last Friday's close of $13.921.

[UpInArms]

70. Diesel's quiet crisis - Record prices hit transportation industry

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD1DD76FA%2D5809%2D4E43%2D89CC%2D3B2FE8F662C2%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers were quick to complain when retail gasoline prices passed $3 a gallon in early September, yet when diesel-fuel prices hit that peak this past week -- and kept going -- there wasn't even a whisper.

That's surprising because diesel prices greatly influence everyday life and arguably impact living costs more than gasoline prices.

"Diesel prices will raise the price of everything that is shipped and are already having an influence," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics.

"Almost anything in the grocery store will show the impact of higher transportation costs," he said.

The country's average diesel-fuel price topped a never-before-seen $3 a gallon this past week, according to data from AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. Prices stood at a record $3.197 on Friday. See the Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

Combined with high gasoline, heating-oil and natural-gas prices this winter, diesel prices "will cut into consumer spending for holiday shopping," Williams said, and "all together add up to a higher probability of recession in 2006."

...more...




more info with charts and graphs can be found here:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp

[UpInArms]

71. Nov Crude @ $61.80 bbl - NatGas @ $13.40 mln btus

12:55pm 10/07/05 NOV CRUDE UP 44C AT $61.80/BRL IN AFTERNOON TRADE

12:55pm 10/07/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 2.5C AT $13.40/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

77. Gulf Oil Offline - 77.5% oil offline - 64.4% NatGas offline

2:30pm 10/07/05 77.5% DAILY GULF OIL OUTPUT OFFLINE FRI VS 80% THURS: MMS

2:30pm 10/07/05 64.4% DAILY NATURAL GAS OUTPUT OFFLINE VS 66.3% THURS: MMS

[UpInArms]

82. Nov Crude closes @ $61.84 bbl - NatGas closes at $13.226 mln btus

2:59pm 10/07/05 NOV NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT $13.226/MLN BTUS, DOWN 14.9C

2:59pm 10/07/05 NOV NATURAL GAS CLOSES WITH A 5% LOSS FOR THE WEEK

2:59pm 10/07/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $61.84/BRL, UP 48C

2:59pm 10/07/05 NOV CRUDE ENDS THE WEEK WITH A 6.6% LOSS

[UpInArms]

83. High US natgas prices could hurt utilities-analysts

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T190645Z_01_N07255917_RTRIDST_0_UTILITIES-NATURALGAS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Soaring natural gas prices could create a cash-flow crunch for gas and electric utilities and squeeze revenues, especially if regulators balk at rate increases proposed by the companies, analysts said this week.

Natural gas prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 2003, rising with oil prices as well as supply problems caused by recent hurricanes.

Most utilities have mechanisms in place to recover rising fuel costs, and many have already filed for rate increases in order to deal with soaring gas prices, including WPS Resources Corp.'s (WPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Wisconsin Public Service Co., Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), and Reliant Energy Inc. (RRI.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Other companies like PG&E Corp (PCG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sempra Energy's (SRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) SDG&E unit have taken measures, including increasing gas hedging to keep costs down and bolstering programs intended to increase consumer energy efficiency. But all those efforts may not be enough to take the sting out of a gas price that some believe could hit a record $20 per million BTUs this winter.

...more...

[Nickster]

85. $20 per million BTUs???? WTF??? Someone tell me we aren't being Enron'd.

[UpInArms]

87. Sorry Nickster - can't do that

tell me we aren't being Enron'd.

:(

[ozymandius]

6. worth reposting: Business optimism declines among CEOs

KIAWAH ISLAND, South Carolina (Reuters) - High energy prices, a lack of pricing power and a steady rise in interest rates have taken a toll on business optimism among the chief executives of large multinational companies, according to a survey released on Thursday.

Less than 15 percent of 71 CEOs polled by the Business Council and the
Conference Board expect business conditions in the United States to improve over the next six months, down from almost 40 percent in a February survey.

Only 27 percent expect improvements to continue in their industries, down from 43.2 percent in February.

The poll was conducted in September in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and prior to Hurricane Rita, so the results do not reflect the full impact of the powerful storms, the Business Council said.

more

[UpInArms]

51. CEOs remain optimistic in the face of dark clouds (spinning away!)

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-07T144035Z_01_N07247386_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CEOS.XML

KIAWAH ISLAND, S.C., Oct 7 (Reuters) - Catastrophic hurricanes, rising interest rates, oil prices near levels unseen in a quarter century and a war. For anyone cooking up an economic horror story, all the elements are there.

Business leaders paid adequate lip service to those risks this week when they gathered for their Business Council meeting in the pristine South Carolina resort town of Kiawah Island, but they also whispered quiet optimism for a U.S. economy that has proved resilient to every blow delivered by Mother Nature, the Federal Reserve and military conflicts.

"I've almost come to the point where I say nothing matters," quipped George David, chairman and chief executive of industrial and aerospace conglomerate United Technologies Corp. <UTX.N>.

"It's oil prices. It's commodity costs. It's metals. It's interest rate bumps short and prospectively long term. It's deficits, both fiscal and trade. It's Iraq. It's hurricanes. It seems like nothing matters," David said.

<snip>

Even the chairman of the Business Council and General Electric Co. <GE.N> Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt turned cheerleader for the economy, calling it "pretty darn good."

...more crap at link...

[ozymandius]

7. Retail Sales Tepid on Gas Prices, Weather

Apparently, retailers want weather so perfect that air conditioners are optional.

NEW YORK - Consumers struggling with higher gasoline prices and the economic fallout from Hurricane Katrina shopped for basics at discounters and avoided mall-based apparel stores in September, delivering many retailers tepid sales results. Unusually warm weather also curtailed demand for fall clothing.

As retailers began reporting their monthly sales figures Thursday, discounters including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. posted strong numbers, helped in part by increased demand of supplies like bottled water and batteries as shoppers dealt with the physical and emotional aftermath of Katrina and Hurricane Rita. But many mall-based apparel retailers, including Limited Brands Inc. and Talbots Inc., suffered.

"It is still early, but consumers were spending on essential items in September, and were foregoing nonessential purchases, " said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research firm in Swampscott, Mass.

Consumers who were already juggling their budgets due to the higher cost of gasoline had to contend last month with prices that soared past $3 a gallon. And the two hurricanes, particularly Katrina, have led to hundreds of thousands of job losses, making people across the country uneasy about the economy.

more

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.83 Change +0.17 (+0.19%)

Sharp Sell off in the Dollar Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4023&Itemid=39

Today was definitely an exciting day in the forex market as we saw breakout moves in all of the major currency pairs. Last week’s rally in the US dollar was completely erased by today’s one-day sell-off. What is most interesting though is the lack of any meaningful fundamental catalyst. Dollar bears just kept on pounding the greenback lower as the move extended further and further on an hourly basis with virtually no retracement. US jobless claims came in weaker than expected which could have contributed to the shift in dollar sentiment, but the $1.42 slide in oil prices should have offset some of the pessimism. Oil prices are now but a stone’s throw away from $60 a barrel. The primary basis for the move today can really be summed up in two words – position adjustment. With the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report, it seems as if a good portion of traders are simply staying out of the markets ahead of what will surely be a volatile number. Dollar bears could also have been waiting on the sidelines for the very last moment to sell off the dollar, taking the opportunity to use the stops of dollar bulls to exacerbate their move high. In the non-farm payrolls preview that was posted on www.dailyfx.com yesterday, we said that there are risks for both a stronger number or weaker number. On top of that though, regardless of how the number is released, there are enough arguments out there for both bulls and bears to use to discount the significance of the report. This will make forecasting the price action after the non-farm payrolls release all that more difficult. Yesterday we had said that with the market extremely long dollars, a weaker number would probably cause a bigger move in the EURUSD than a stronger number. Today’s move however makes the potential reaction much more unclear. For the time being, it will certainly be interesting to see if dollar bears can hold onto their control tomorrow.

...more...

Dollar Makes A Stand Ahead Of Event Risk

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4030&Itemid=39

Dollar gave up significant territory ahead of the monthly event risk, however the data will most likely skew the market as it will most likely will be impacted by the Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. This trader and an analyst advises to stay out of the market, unless the individual trader already running a profitable position, my advice is to close all of the losing positions in order to avoid compounding loses. There are no hopes and dreams in the market, just reality, no mercy and no illusions.

...more...

Dollar steadies ahead of US jobs data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-07T005332Z_01_KWA703182_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar steadied on Friday after tumbling against the euro the previous day, though the market hesitated to make any big bets ahead of much-anticipated U.S. payrolls data.

The dollar posted its biggest one-day loss against the euro in over three years on Thursday as investors sold the currency partly on worries its recent rally on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates had been overdone.

"The outlook for higher U.S. rates is still supporting the dollar, but the rally seems to be taking a pause before the jobs data," said one trader at a Japanese trust bank.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected to see a loss of 143,000 jobs in September after a gain of 169,000 a month earlier, as layoffs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina seep into data for the whole economy. The figures are due at 1230 GMT.

...more...

[ozymandius]

9. Good morning UIA and everyone!

:donut: :donut: :donut:
The first paragraph explains a lot. The dollar's friends sit on the sidelines waiting for more data while the dollar's enemies give it a good thrashing.

I'll be back in a couple of hours after taking my son to school.

Ozy :hi:

EDIT: DU has been really buggy for me this morning. Pages will not reload after making a post.

[UpInArms]

11. G'morning Ozy (and all)!

Should be another interesting day with the numbers - we'll have to see how it all shakes out.

:hi:

[AnneD]

32. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Funny you should mention shake out. That was my thought this am too. As an adult I have been through the Arab oil embargo, the Texas oil boom, the crash in 88 (I think that was the year), the S&L scandal, the Real Estate bubble and bust in Houston, the Bull Market during the 90's, the Dot.Com boom and bust, and 2 gold market rallies (and the time the Hunt Bros tried to corner the silver market). I started investing since I was in my 20's, the amount depended on my circumstances. I have a good, general base of knowledge and have paid my fair share of stupid tax.
I take a long term, Main Street view. I think: most of the movers and shakers on Wall St are stupid thieving crooks that can't think past their belly buttons. What drives profits on WS have grown (over time) to be in direct contrast to what is good for the Main St economy. This deterioration started with the merger mania among oil co in the 80's. I likened it to a thief going to a banker to borrow money for tools. The banker say what is you collateral. The thief says, once I have the tools,I'll burgelerize this wealthy house, steal them blind, sell everything and pay you back. This has resulted in layoff and the general decline of Main St (2/3 of our economy). I think we will have a recession in the short term.

[54anickel]

33. Who is financing the current account deficit? (Dollar friends?)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=313

snip>

In general, the most provocative aspect of the decline in foreign government investment in U.S. T-Bonds is how it may be a driving force in the oil, gold and commodity markets. In a previous article on energy, I remarked on how the tendency of many nations to develop and/or increase strategic oil reserves is tantamount to hoarding. I don't think that's an unusual or even imprudent response to the rapidly increasing price of any commodity, but as a pervasive attitude of scarcity permeates the energy markets, the act of hoarding becomes competitively nationalistic as it encourages further price increases in the world market for that commodity. Here again in the current market, it seems only natural that oil and oil resources become an attractive alternative to T-bonds. Since commodities markets are generally priced in U.S. dollars, they provide a ready place for our trade partners to utilize accumulated U.S. currency. And since many countries are losing confidence in the U.S. dollar, spending dollars on oil is a good way to pass some bucks.

snip>

But who is buying Treasury Bonds?

When you realize foreign governments aren't buying T-Bonds like they used to, you should start to wonder who is, because that's who is funding the current account deficit now. It requires a little speculation to surmise exactly who this might be. This year the major purchases have come through London, and to an even greater extent, the Caribbean. These are two centers of international finance and thus, it is doubtful that either area is originating these purchases. If I was a bettin' man, which I am, my money would be that the U.S. Treasury is the benefactor of Arab oil profits. Due to U.S. scrutiny of the politics of all Arab investors, the only safe access these Oil Barons have to the American securities market is through offshore banks. There are incredible profits being made at the current price of oil. The security of that money is what is important to its owners, not necessarily the return on investment, so


Treasury Bonds are a good fit.

Another potentially surprising source of funds for T-Bonds is through the foreign activities of U.S. corporations. We are well aware that many U.S. companies have expanding operations in emerging economies. What some may not be aware of is the extent to which U.S. corporations can form shell companies in the Cayman Islands and other tax-haven domiciles where they can quite legally avoid U.S. taxes as long as they don't bring these dollars back into the United States. As an example, IBM recently repatriated $9 billion in earnings from foreign subsidiaries under a temporary tax amnesty provision, and IBM is just one example of the magnitude of holdings U.S. companies retain overseas. It's quite possible that a significant amount of foreign-originated purchases of T-bonds may be at the behest of U.S. corporations. I don't want to carry what is largely a hypothesis to the absurd, but I would like to point out that the U.S. foreign account deficit might be over-stated to whatever extent U.S. companies are preserving profits offshore and reinvesting profits in the U.S. economy through T-Bond purchases made by their foreign subsidiaries. Where are the investment opportunities here?

In any economic discussion we are most interested in the impact on our investments and our fiscal opportunities. Here we find that foreign governments are less interested in T-Bonds. Consequently, so are we. These same governments have elevated interest in gold, oil, and other commodities. All three of these areas have established positive trends for us to remain invested which, I might point out, softens the impact rising prices of these commodities have on our day-to-day lives.

Arab oil producers are making lots of money; so let them buy the T-bonds, but understand that this investment in the U.S. economy impacts the natural cycle which I believe, in spite of my previous writings to the contrary, means the current account deficit may be sustainable for several more years. Played out it goes like this: the price of oil will likely continue to rise as there is serious doubt in the market that supplies can keep up with increasing worldwide demand. This trend is creating a massive accumulation of capital among oil producers. Many of these producers opt for the relative security of U.S. T-Bonds because safety is of greater concern to them than further capital gains. The U.S. current account deficit remains sustainable as long as there is a countervailing flow of capital into the U.S. economy. Of course if the Arabic component of T-Bond purchasers really get annoyed over some political or religious issue they could suddenly decide to take their dollars and go home. That would be an economic disruption on the order of the 70's energy crisis. In some ways this is more worrisome than the T-Bond holdings of Asian banks (of which I have waxed on about in previous articles). Asian central banking interests are at least concerned enough about their countries' own financial health to avoid intentionally throwing the world into a recession.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Snow asks China for more currency flexibility

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&guid=%7BCD837A47-D45F-442C-A1AF-446FB0D4BAFB%7D

"We will be meeting with Chinese authorities ... to make the case it is time to see greater flexibility," Snow said during testimony Thursday to the Senate Finance Committee.

Snow and Fed chief Alan Greenspan are traveling to China for meetings with top Chinese officials on Oct. 14.

U.S. manufacturers and their allies in Congress insist that China undervalues its currency, giving its producers an unfair trade advantage. Greater flexibility is code for allowing the yuan to appreciate versus the dollar, because it assumes that market forces would push the Chinese currency higher due to China's large bilateral surplus with the United States.

In July, in the wake of strong pressure from the United States and its G-7 allies, China dropped its dollar peg and set up a managed float against a basket of currencies. At the same time, Chinese authorities allowed the yuan to appreciate 2.1%.

more deja vu...

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. forex report waiting on China trip

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B39144D3D%2D7719%2D41A4%2D9F11%2D7C644C04C7CF%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The outcome of a Treasury Department report about world currencies, including China's, depends heavily on a trip next week to China by Secretary John Snow.

Beijing risks being labeled a currency manipulator if Treasury decides the fast-growing Asian economy hasn't let its yuan, or renminbi, move in a flexible fashion against the dollar.

That label could trigger bilateral negotiations on the exchange rate and possible retaliatory action.

"Our findings on this trip will be an important input," Undersecretary Tim Adams told reporters Friday. The report is expected to be released in November.

Adams indicated the Treasury is satisfied with steps taken so far by Chinese authorities, including a July 21 move by Beijing to drop the yuan's peg to the dollar and set up a managed float against a basket of currencies. Chinese authorities at the same time allowed the yuan to appreciate 2.1% and said they will allow the currency to reflect market conditions.

"I take them at their word that they are committed to doing that and we expect to see that in place over time," Adams said.

...more...

[54anickel]

59. So China could get "labeled" a currency manipulator when the move in

their own interest, but Japan gets tapped by the US Treasury to basically do the same and they look the other way. Oh yeah - but remember the terraist hate us for our freedom. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

10. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Oct 7	8:30 AM		Average Workweek	Sep	-	33.7	33.7	33.7	-	
Oct 7	8:30 AM		Hourly Earnings		Sep	-	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Oct 7	8:30 AM		Nonfarm Payrolls	Sep	-	-200K	-150K	169K	-	
Oct 7	8:30 AM		Unemployment Rate	Sep	-	5.1%	5.1%	4.9%	-	
Oct 7	10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories	Aug	-	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%	-	
Oct 7	3:00 PM		Consumer Credit		Aug	-	$10.0B	$5.0B	$4.4B	-

[UpInArms]

24. Reports tumbling in:

8:30am 10/07/05 KATRINA EFFECT ROUGHLY 230,000 JOBS, BLS ESTIMATES

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. JULY, AUG. PAYROLLS REVISED HIGHER BY 77,000

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. SEPT. MANUFACTURING JOBS FALL 27,000

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT UP 270,000 TO 7.7 MILLION

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. SEPT. AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY AT 33.7 HOURS

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. SEPT. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 5.1% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/07/05 U.S. SEPT. NONFARM PAYROLLS DOWN 35,000 VS -150,000 EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

25. Payroll spin here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.3543106944-845205009&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Sept. nonfarm payrolls fall less-than-expected 35,000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Reeling from two hurricanes, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by an estimated 35,000 in September, the first decline in more than two years, the Labor Department said Friday. The drop was much less than the 150,000 expected. Payrolls in July and August were revised higher by a total of 77,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose as expected to 5.1% from 4.9%. The government would not precisely quantify the impact of Hurricane Katrina, but gave a rough estimate of 230,000 lost jobs based on the assumption hiring was normal elsewhere. Job losses were concentrated in manufacturing, retail and leisure.

Lots of "assumption" going on :eyes:

[UpInArms]

62. Revising Reality: Excluding Katrina, U.S. hiring healthy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAA8226D9%2DAB78%2D4EDD%2D9397%2DEEAB711D894F%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hurricane Katrina likely cost about a quarter of a million jobs, but outside of the battered Gulf Coast, job growth remained healthy in September, government data released Friday show.

The resiliency of the U.S. economy in the face of two bruising hurricanes leaves the Federal Reserve on course to continue to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by an estimated 35,000 in September, the first decline in more than two years, the Labor Department said Friday.

The unemployment rate rose as expected to 5.1% in September from 4.9%, as 270,000 Americans joined the ranks of the jobless.

<snip>

The government would not precisely quantify the impact of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and surrounding areas two weeks before the monthly jobs surveys. Hurricane Rita struck the Louisiana-Texas coast at the tail end of the survey week.

However, employment patterns elsewhere in the nation were roughly in line with the recent past, said Philip Rones, deputy commission of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in a statement to the Joint Economic Committee. Assuming normal hiring in the rest of the nation, the storms cost roughly 230,000 jobs, he said.

Ahead of the report, private economists said the figures would be "muddied" by uncertainties about employment in the Gulf Coast.

...more...

I guess those 230,000 jobs in and around NOLA just never were - 'cause everything is wonderful! Everything is fine! Those folks were just a drain on society - so much so that we will never even know how many died.

:argh:

[hatrack]

80. Aside from the central city, population growth strong in Hiroshima

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. Aug. wholesale inventories rise 0.5%

10:00am 10/07/05 U.S. JULY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES REVISED 0.1% VS. -0.1%

10:00am 10/07/05 U.S. AUG. WHOLESALE INVENTORY RATIO FALLS TO 1.17

10:00am 10/07/05 U.S. AUG. WHOLESALE SALES UP 1.3%

10:00am 10/07/05 U.S. AUG. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 0.5% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.4167119213-845214853&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales at U.S. wholesalers increased 1.3% in August, the fastest gain since April, the Commerce Department said Friday. Inventories also increased at the fastest rate since April, rising 0.5%, slightly better than the 0.3% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The inventory-to-sales ratio dipped to 1.17, indicating lean stockpiles and matching the low of the year.

[UpInArms]

81. Consumer Credit Report in:

3:00pm 10/07/05 U.S. AUG. NONREVOLVING CREDIT UP 2.3%

3:00pm 10/07/05 U.S. AUG. REVOLVING CREDIT UP 3.5%

3:00pm 10/07/05 U.S. JULY CONSUMER CREDIT REVISED TO UP $6.5BLN VS. $4.4BLN

3:00pm 10/07/05 U.S. AUG. CONSUMER CREDIT UP $4.9 BLN OR 2.7%

adding link and blurb

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.6252696528-845245310&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. outstanding consumer credit increased at a 2.7% annual rate in August, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Credit increased $4.9 billion to $2.15 trillion, after an upwardly revised increase of $6.5 billion in July. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, increased $2.3 billion, or 3.5%. Nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, increased $2.5 billion, or 2.3%. The data do not include mortgages or other loans backed by real estate.

[UpInArms]

12. Higher long rates to hurt U.S. more than Europe

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-06T132950Z_01_MOR648584_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-MARKETS-BONDS-EUROPE-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - Falling long-term interest rates have fed a housing boom in the United States, making consumers there feel more flush than their European counterparts.

But the flipside is that if higher bond yields pricked this bubble, the U.S. economy could be in for a harsher fall. Although Europe's export-led growth could suffer if U.S. consumer appetite for its goods runs dry, Asian demand could cushion the blow while lazy growth is likely to keep the upside for long-term rates in Europe well-contained.

The United States owes much of its economic dynamism to a spendthrift U.S. consumer, cashing in on house price rises at a time when long-term borrowing costs are still close to historically low levels.

U.S. Treasury yields have been falling for the past few months, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for eleven months running from 1.00 to 3.75 percent.

But the latest rebound in long-dated Treasury yields has raised concerns that a real pick-up in long-term rates could precipitate a U.S. housing crash and deal a severe blow to U.S. demand, eliminating a key source of global growth.

"Real estate bubbles are a confidence trick. If you can burst that bubble than the whole global economy goes into a big tail spin because the only consumer really kicking at the moment is the U.S. consumer," said David Keeble, head of fixed income strategy at Calyon.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Delphi could file Chapter 11 as soon as today: Detroit News

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.2769670833-845193992&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Delphi Corp., (DPH) the Troy, Mich., auto-parts producer, could file under Chapter 11 of federal bankruptcy law as soon as today, the Detroit News reported, citing a confidential update to United Auto Workers members from the union's International Bargaining Team. The report comes as Delphi, according to The Wall Street Journal, is pressing the UAW for a package of concessions including a two-thirds cut in wages and benefits. Meantime, Delphi said in a Securities and Exchange Commission Form 8-K that the board's compensation committee reviewed the company's separation policies for executives and found them not competitive for all executives. Hence, the company entered severance-payment accords with 21 individuals, including executives but excepting Chairman and Chief Executive Robert S. "Steve" Miller, the filing said.

Delphi sets termination compensation plan for execs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T103053Z_01_WEN0618_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Struggling auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it had restructured its executive termination compensation policies for top officers to make the plans more competitive.

As a result of a review by the board's compensation committee and outside adviser Watson Wyatt, the company now has entered into formal employment contracts with about 21 top executives, excluding Chairman and Chief Executive Robert Miller, to provide for severance payments if the executive is terminated without cause or chooses to leave for "good reason."

Investors sue Delphi over billions in losses

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2005-10-06-delphi-usat_x.htm

DETROIT (AP) — Two state pension funds and other shareholders are suing auto supplier Delphi, claiming executives lied about the company's finances to protect their jobs and artificially inflate Delphi's stock price.

The lawsuit is the latest blow for the largest U.S. auto supplier, which is threatening to file for bankruptcy protection by Oct. 17 if it fails to reach a deal with General Motors and the United Auto Workers union to lower its costs.

GM spun off Delphi in 1999.

"The fraud it orchestrated was among the most egregious in the recent wave of corporate meltdowns, sparking criminal and regulatory investigations, inflicting billions of dollars of losses on Delphi's unsuspecting investors and bringing this once heralded business to the brink of bankruptcy," the plaintiffs say in the lawsuit, which was filed in federal court in New York last week.

The lawsuit is posted on the website of Bernstein Litowitz Berger and Grossman, the New York law firm representing the plaintiffs.

The plaintiffs claim Delphi, based in Troy, Mich., improperly booked payments for technology services as assets and booked rebates and credits as income before they were actually earned.

In one instance, Delphi sold $145 million worth of scrap inventory to Murfreesboro, Tenn.-based Setech, an inventory management company, and booked the sale as income even though its agreement with Setech required Delphi to buy the inventory back, the lawsuit claims.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. Bankruptcy deadline may focus minds

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1c0a8b7c-3692-11da-bedc-00000e2511c8.html

Nothing concentrates the mind like a deadline. But a closer look at changes in US bankruptcy law due on October 17 suggests its tactical impact for companies in trouble has received disproportionate attention.

Delphi, a struggling car parts manufacturer, has done most to thrust this obscure area of law into the limelight by using the coming change to help impose an artificial deadline and ratchet up the pressure during negotiations with General Motors and the United Auto Workers union.

The legislation, which came into law in April, was mainly designed to clamp down on individuals abusing personal bankruptcy rules, but it also restricts freedom of movement for executives choosing to file for corporate bankruptcy – known as Chapter 11.

“If we were to come up empty in our discussions with GM and the UAW and, therefore have to consider a Chapter 11 filing, then the change in the law on October 17, which is basically less debtor friendly, would be a consideration,” warned Steve Miller, Delphi chief executive.

Other companies tend to play down the link in public, but use the deadline as a bargaining chip with investors or unions. “In all candor, the existence of that deadline or that legislative change will obviously be one of many factors that are put in the mix in the decision-making process,” Douglas Steenland, chief executive of Northwest Airlines, told analysts shortly before filing for bankruptcy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

72. Delphi halved as bankruptcy looms

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6FA27CB7%2DB8F4%2D4A5F%2D918A%2DFA6D1DD1DEFA%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Delphi Corp. shares were cut in half Friday, retreating on heightened concerns that the troubled auto-parts maker could file for bankruptcy as soon as today.

The stock, under pressure for weeks, accelerated its decline after a union official's letter to rank-and-file workers detailed Troy Mich.-based Delphi's list of demands to avert a Chapter 11 filing, including a steep two-thirds cut in wages and benefits.

<snip>

The letter, sent to Delphi UAW workers in Saginaw, Mich., said the company wants to cut workers' total UAW wage and benefits package to $16 to $18 an hour, down from about $65 an hour currently.

That would be done by a host of moves such as trimming wages to about $10 an hour and eliminating cost-of-living allowances. It includes eliminating the program under which workers on longer-term layoffs continue to get full pay, plus reducing the union health-care plan and trimming vacations and holidays.

"If Delphi files bankruptcy, the above proposal they made to the UAW will look better than the restructuring proposal it submits to the courts," the letter said. "It is clear that in one form or another, there is restructuring of Delphi forthcoming and it will have a dramatic impact on UAW members."

A Delphi bankruptcy would allow the company to negotiate much lower wage and benefit terms with its union workers, as well as potentially break unprofitable contracts with its customers, including former parent GM.

...more...

Wow! $65 an hour????

[UpInArms]

15. AIG says suspends indicted employee

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-06T191203Z_01_MOR665947_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-AIG.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc. (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it has suspended David Pinkerton, an employee indicted on Thursday for alleged violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by U.S. authorities in a case related to a $15 million investment.

AIG, the world's largest insurer by market value, said no charges had been brought against the company itself.

Pinkerton, a managing director in the AIG Global Investment Group, is on administrative leave pending resolution of the charges, AIG said.

Pinkerton pleaded not guilty to the charges in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

AIG said the charges involved an Azerbaijan privatization program that was brought to Pinkerton's group by Omega Partners Advisors, a New York hedge fund. AIG, as co-investor, contributed about $15 million of a total $180 million invested in 1998.

...more...

[UpInArms]

63. US indicts investors on Azeri bribe charges

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fca1b31c-369d-11da-bedc-00000e2511c8.html

A Czech financier and an employee of US insurance company AIG have been indicted by US authorities for allegedly taking part in an illegal scheme to bribe top Azerbaijan officials to buy its state oil company on the cheap.

The decision, revealed on Thursday, marks a significant step in a long-running saga believed to reach the very highest levels of the Azeri government and involve a number of high-profile US investors.

Michael Garcia, the US attorney for the southern district of New York, said Victor Kozeny, the alleged mastermind of the scheme also known as the “Pirate of Prague”, was arrested on Wednesday in the Bahamas, pending an extradition request by the US.

David Pinkerton, who was managing director of AIG Global Investment, and Frederic Bourke, a US handbag tycoon who invested money with Mr Kozeny, surrendered to the Federal Bureau of Investigation in New York yesterday.

The US authorities claim both knew of the plan to bribe senior Azerbaijan government figures, and invested on the basis of that knowledge. All three defendants were charged with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and related crimes.

...more...

It appears that the stream of corruption at AIG ran both deep and wide.

[UpInArms]

16. Record low for home affordability in California

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-06T230342Z_01_N06195640_RTRIDST_0_PROPERTY-CALIFORNIA-UPDATE-2.XML

SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Soaring prices in California's housing market have shut out a record 86 percent of households from buying a typical home with a traditional down-payment, according to a study released on Thursday.

Home prices across California have more than doubled since late 2001, increasing pressure on home buyers, who needed a minimum household income of $133,800 to buy a home at the August median price of $568,890, the California Association of Realtors said in its report.

That meant that only 14 percent of households could afford the typical home, down from 18 percent a year earlier, and the lowest level since records began in 1989, the report said.

The group's calculation was based on a mortgage interest rate of 5.87 percent and assumed a 20 percent down payment. The national minimum household income needed to buy a median-priced home at $220,000 last month was $51,740, the group said.

"It certainly is a concern when we reach a record low for affordability," said association economist Robert Kleinhenz.

August's affordability reading matched a record low 14 percent recorded in early 1989, shortly before a downturn in property prices that began in mid-1991.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. Countrywide Fin'l CEO sees housing prices leveling (tipping point reached)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T135431Z_01_N07730093_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-COUNTRYWIDE-CEO.XML

KIAWAH ISLAND, S.C., Oct 7 (Reuters) - The chief executive of top U.S. mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said he expects housing prices to start easing, especially in markets where speculators have rushed in.

"I think we've hit the tipping point, and think that in many areas you're seeing a leveling off of prices," Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo told Reuters at this week's meeting of the Business Council, which includes chief executives of various companies.

Average U.S. home prices have risen more than 53 percent in five years. Low mortgage rates have kept demand robust and some economists are expecting 2005 to be a record year for sales and construction.

Mozilo said he thinks housing prices will especially moderate in areas where there has been speculative buying in condominiums such as South Florida.

"Wherever you see speculators, no matter where it is in the country, that's trouble, because as soon as there's a little blip, they're gone," Mozilo said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Disney Chief Gets $2 Million and Big Bonus ($7.5 Million)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/07/business/07disney.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1128683456-NabrrwSRjFfRDxMhew+nWg

LOS ANGELES, Oct. 6 - Robert A. Iger, who took over as the Walt Disney Company's chief executive on Saturday, will earn $2 million a year in salary and is eligible for a yearly bonus of about $7.25 million as long as the company meets certain performance standards, according to federal documents filed today.

Mr. Iger also agreed to remain as chief executive until 2010.

At the same time, the company disclosed that Michael D. Eisner, Mr. Iger's predecessor, resigned from Disney's board and will no longer provide any services for the company. Mr. Eisner is leaving several months earlier than expected. His bonus for fiscal 2005 is expected to be disclosed before next year's annual meeting. Even with his departure, Mr. Eisner is one of Disney's largest shareholders with 13.9 million shares, according to the company's most recent proxy statement.

Mr. Iger was previously Disney's president. Mr. Eisner, who said last year that he would not seek to renew his contract in 2005, left the company after a shareholder revolt in 2004 stripped him of his chairman's title. Disney's current board chairman, George Mitchell, the former senator from Maine, will leave the board after Disney's next annual meeting. The board is expected to resume its search for a new chairman soon.

The $7.25 million bonus figure is a target amount. The actual payment could be more or less based on performance. It will be paid in either cash or stock, as determined by Disney's compensation committee. Mr. Iger is also eligible for a long-term incentive award in either restricted stock units or options. That amount has a targeted value of no more than $8 million, or four times his annual salary.

Mr. Iger's bonuses and awards are based on the company's exceeding certain standards, including how the share value fares against the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index as well as internal goals.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Eisner resigns Disney board of directors

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/12836623.htm

BURBANK, Calif. - Michael Eisner, who stepped down as chief executive of The Walt Disney Co. last week, has resigned his seat on the company's board of directors, the company said in a document filed Thursday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

In a surprise move, Eisner and the company have cut all ties. Eisner will not serve as a consultant as he had been entitled to do under his employment agreement.

Eisner "no longer provides any services" for Disney, the filing said.

Eisner resigned from the board on Sept. 30, his last day as CEO, according to the filing. Disney President and Chief Operating Officer Robert Iger succeeded Eisner the next day.

Eisner, who led the media and theme park company for 21 years, had been expected to remain on the board until next spring when Disney elected a new board.

...more...

hmmmm.... That was quick. I wonder what A(lways)B(roadcasting)C(rap) will do with their right-wing tilt now?

Eisner and Jebbie were/are allied in their squashing of the truth.

http://film.guardian.co.uk/cannes2004/story/0,14498,1220874,00.html

excerpt:

Eisner told his agent that he did not want to anger Jeb Bush, the governor of Florida, because tax breaks worth many millions of dollars were at stake.

[UpInArms]

18. regarding yesterday's "terra alert" in NYC

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.2073773495-845184583&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The threat to the New York City subways, announced by Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Thursday, came after an American military operation with the CIA and FBI in Iraq, the New York Times reported, citing law enforcement officials. Several law enforcement officials said an investigation had yet to corroborate any of the details, however, the report added.

[UpInArms]

20. "that this information, while specific, is of doubtful credibility"

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T115337Z_01_N07238002_RTRIDST_0_SECURITY-NEWYORK-PICTURE.XML

excerpt:

FBI Assistant Director Mark Mershon said on Thursday that classified operations had partially thwarted the threat, though he refused to address reports it came from the Iraqi insurgency.

Authorities did say it had come from abroad and specifically referred to an attack on the subway in the coming days.

But federal officials in Washington disagreed on how serious it was.

Homeland Security Department spokesman Russ Knocke said on Thursday: "At this time the intelligence community believes that this information, while specific, is of doubtful credibility."

The information was shared with local officials "out of an abundance of caution" but there was no plan to raise the threat level for New York or the country, Knocke said.

...more...

[Roland99]

27. Anyone else notice the same # of people (19) as the 9/11 hijackers?

[UpInArms]

61. New York's Penn Station normal after SodaPop scare

Ooga Booga! :scared:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T153626Z_01_N07253664_RTRIDST_0_SECURITY-NEWYORK-AMTRAK-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Police briefly sealed off part of Pennsylvania Station where Amtrak trains operate on Friday after a suspicious soda can oozing a green liquid sparked a scare a day after officials warned of a possible attack on the city's subway system.

Less than two hours after the scare began, the station was back to normal when the suspicious package turned out not to be dangerous.

"It was a soda can with a green liquid bubbling out, but it doesn't seem to be anything," one Amtrak police officer on the scene told reporters. The officer said the liquid was caustic.

The scare came came one day after New York officials said they had intelligence that the city's subway system was under a credible and specific threat of possible attack.

<snip>

Amtrak spokeswoman Tracy Connell said Amtrak boarded trains and did not interrupt service while the suspicious soda can was dealt with.

...more...

OMG! The Terra of Soda!

[UpInArms]

45. 'War on terror' costs U.S. $7B monthly: report

(thanks to sabra and this DU thread -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1834428)

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051007/USwaronterror_congresserport_cost_20051007/20051007?hub=World

The 'war on terror' is costing Americans approximately $7 billion US every month. According to a new Congressional report, the bill could exceed half a trillion dollars by 2010.

The Washington-based Congressional Research Service says $5.9 billion of that monthly outlay is being spent on military operations in Iraq.

That's a billion-dollar, 19 per cent increase from the Pentagon's last estimate.

According to the report by one of Congress' investigative arms, the estimated total of $570 billion US by 2010 is a conservative estimate that "assumes a gradual drawdown in U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan."

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. Senate approves $445 billion defense spending

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1192593

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate cleared a $445 billion bill to fund the Pentagon on Friday which includes another $50 billion for the Iraq war, after rebuking the Bush administration for abuse of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison and elsewhere.

On a unanimous vote, senators sent the defense spending bill to a conference with the House of Representatives where it faces a battle over a Senate amendment to restrict the Pentagon's interrogations and treatment of military prisoners and detainees.

<snip>

But with the Pentagon needing more money by mid-November for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the administration may be quicker to accept restrictions on its detainee policies to avoid holding up the spending bill, several senators said.

The Senate defense bill's $50 billion in emergency funds for the wars brings their costs to more than $350 billion, with most of that spent in Iraq. The administration is expected to seek more war money in February or March next year.

...more...

That puts Pentagon spending at $1.22 BILLION per DAY!

[UpInArms]

19. AAA AVG RETAIL GASOLINE $2.932/GALLON VS $1.947 A YR AGO

7:34am 10/07/05 AAA AVG DIESEL PRICE $3.197 A GALLON VS $2.085 A YR AGO

7:34am 10/07/05 AAA AVG RETAIL GASOLINE $2.932/GALLON VS $1.947 A YR AGO

(added diesel prices, link and blurb on edit)

AAA retail gas price up 50.6% vs yr ago; diesel at record

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.3192346296-845199866&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- AAA said the average retail price of a gallon of unleaded gasoline stood at $2.932 on Friday, little changed from $2.938 a day earlier but up 50.6% from the same time a year ago. The automobile association said the average price of a gallon of diesel stood at a record $3.197, up from $3.182 on Thursday. Diesel prices are up 53.3% from a year ago. Crude-oil futures were up 67 cents at $62.03 a barrel in electronic trade, while unleaded gasoline futures were up 2.10 cents at $1.862 a gallon.

[Roland99]

26. Retail gas at record highs nationwide while wholesale is down to $1.835.

Go figure.

[Mnemosyne]

21. Great toon oz, thanks for your dedication! n/t

:rofl: :patriot:

[ozymandius]

30. You're welcome and thanks for saying!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

28. Treasuries fall on smaller-than-expected jobs loss

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T123856Z_01_NYG000059_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-PAYROLLS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Friday after September non-farms payrolls fell much less than expected, adding a harmonious note to a Federal Reserve chorus suggesting it had to raise interest rates to fight inflation.

The September report, reflecting less fallout from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita than the market had been expecting, showed a result of 35,000 job losses, far fewer than the 143,000 job losses economists expectated.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

36. Check-Kiting continues: Fed adds reserves to system through five-day RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T133322Z_01_N07343417_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through five-day system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.750 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

(Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

...more...

[54anickel]

44. Ya hoo!!! The just added 16 biggies yesterday! 5 day aye? - Got an

auction coming up after the Monday Holiday?

[AnneD]

38. Stupid Ecomonic Policies in action

7.7 million people on active unemployment out of 281,421,906 (2000 CENSUS) is not considered a problem.

[UpInArms]

52. Treasuries trim losses, security trumps jobs data (Terra! sells)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T150403Z_01_N07389313_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices trimmed losses on Friday as security concerns reported at major Northeastern rail hubs offset a bond-friendly report showing fewer-than-expected job losses due to last month's hurricanes.

Authorities shut down part of New York's Pennsylvania Station because of what authorities said was a police situation, a day after officials warned of a possible attack on the system, a spokeswoman for the Amtrak rail system said. Police wearing hazardous material suit were seen walking about the cordoned-off area.

"It's the 'T' word. It's the 'T' word again," said one bond trader at a Wall Street primary dealer, referring to the threat of attacks, which bring investors looking for a safe haven into the bond market.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. Laying the groundwork: Bush, drug execs to meet on avian flu

The next big advertising roll-out (you don't put new products out in August)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B11E3717F%2D2866%2D4F33%2D9087%2D9B25C134A0F1%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush will convene a meeting with executives of the world's leading vaccine companies Friday afternoon to discuss what the U.S. government can do to help forestall a major pandemic of the deadly avian flu.

White House spokesman Trent Duffy said the meeting will focus how an effective avian-flu vaccine can be massed-produced in a relatively short period of time and whether newer production techniques will be needed.

Representatives from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK: news, chart, profile), Wyeth (WYE: news, chart, profile) , Chiron Corp. (CHIR: news, chart, profile) , Merck & Co. (MRK: news, chart, profile) , MedImmune Inc. (MEDI: news, chart, profile) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY: news, chart, profile) will meet with the president at about 2 p.m. Eastern, according to Duffy.

The companies will also discuss their concerns about being held liable for any recipients who respond poorly to the vaccine.

At issue is a deadly strain of influenza known as the H5N1, nicknamed the "avian flu" because it has killed hundreds of thousands of domesticated birds throughout Asia. The flu also has infected more than 100 people in the region, resulting in nearly 60 deaths, since doctors first started tracking the disease in 1997.

World health experts now warn that the flu, which is extremely deadly and responds poorly to most medications, will eventually mutate from a virus that is highly contagious among birds to one that can be easily spread from person to person. Read more about the avian flu.

...more...

(edited for weird spacing)

[UpInArms]

68. Data leave Treasurys in line for weekly loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE4650E4A%2DEC8B%2D4B5B%2D943A%2D3376AEEFEFD0%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasurys were stung initially Friday by a report that showed national job cuts immediately following the devastating Gulf Coast hurricanes weren't as deep as feared.

The benchmark 10-year note later pared its price decline, as 10-year yields near 4.4% proved too enticing for some investors to pass up.

Reports of a partial closure of New York's Penn Station on Friday, only a day after the city cited a specific subway threat found in overseas intelligence, caused some investors to flock to lower-risk government notes and bonds, traders said.

September brought the lingering effects of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans and a follow-up storm named Rita. The storms contributed to a U.S. payroll loss of 35,000 that month, the first decline in more than two years.

Still, the total was well shy of the 150,000 or higher feared by some.

"The good news is that job growth had been picking up and that should cushion the fall caused by the hurricanes," said Joel Naroff, president of consulting firm Naroff Economic Advisors. "For the Fed, this is just another reason to keep hiking rates. Maybe the bond market will get the hint. Maybe not."

...more...

[ozymandius]

29. current numbers and pre-open blather

9:50
Dow 10,334.09 +46.99 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,095.04 +10.96 (+0.53%)
S&P 500 1,197.94 +6.45 (+0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 44.16 +0.50 (+1.15%)
NYSE Volume 198,755,000
Nasdaq Volume 170,146,000


9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0.

9:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. After many appear to have interpreted the much smaller than expected decline in September payrolls and upward revisions to the July and August figures as more inflationary red flags, futures indications have regained some upward momentum and again point to a slightly higher open amid validation that the labor market was very strong before the Hurricane hit. The day's economic docket contains two more items: at 10:00 ET, the Aug. wholesale inventory report will hit the wires, followed by Aug. consumer credit data at 3:00 ET.

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures versus fair value now suggesting a slightly lower open, as knee-jerk reaction to recent employment data spook an already nervous market and sends both stocks and bonds to pre-market lows. Nonfarm payrolls fell a less than expected 35K (consensus -150K) and the August gain was also revised upward by 42K, while average hourly earnings (+0.2%) and the unemployment rate (5.1%) matched expectations - all positive figures for the economy but still subject to interpretation amid ongoing Katrina uncertainty. The 10-yr note is now off 9 ticks to yield 4.42%.

[UpInArms]

34. updating blather (huh?)

9:45AM: As futures trade had foreshadowed, the stock market opened on the upside as relieved traders seize some buying opportunities following a week of broad-based declines that have shoved the Dow to a three-month low and spurred 2.7%, 3.1%, and 3.2% respective declines in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. With the Sept. job report uncertainty now dispelled, and as investors digest data that both reinforces the idea that fears regarding Katrina's economic impact may be overdone and that the underlying economy is clearly strong, the indices find momentum as each economic sector trends positive.

Wow! I guess the loss of a major metropolitan center with the largest port in the US and almost 100% of the oil and natgas rigs with one-quarter of the refineries in this country just don't amount to doodaa!

[AnneD]

43. Thanks UIA

I am sitting on the ground here in Houston and I am absolutely speechless as to the WS interpretation of these events. NO is gone until God knows when, only one refinery in 12 is up and rigs are in about the same shape. We might be lucky to see some more up by Spring of next year. Maybe by next hurricane season we may be up to half strength......CLUELESS ABSOFKINGLUTELY CLUELESS. Well, I've told you what I know to be true from this end-so you have been warned.

[ozymandius]

47. This blather was written by an absolute idiot.

For the reasons you've mentioned in the rebuttal - there is too much impact to immediately assess the overall damage to the economy. In my recollection, the dot-com bust travelled in delayed waves through our nation's economy. The full impact was not realized until a full two years (essentially two holiday shopping seasons) after the Nasdaq crash. To be hardly six weeks away from the shuddering of the busiest port in the U.S. and claim with all certainty that we dodged a hail of bullets epitomizes swift foolishness.

[AnneD]

69. You're right Ozy....

the Dot Com was a slow implosion, like a slow leak. I think the 2 months of decreased new home starts may signal the leaks in the housing bubble (but look for growth in Texas and La). The next few quarters will reflect the true state of the Bush economy, not the rah rah from the propaganda driven business media. They have been covering and fudging for some time now. It is a good day for DU'ers though. You know the mata's going to hit the fan and you have time to duck. If your only source is MSM, you are clueless.
edited for my crappy spelling, never type in anger.

[UpInArms]

35. US junk bond mutual funds report $69 mln outflow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T134826Z_01_N07248215_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-JUNK-AMG.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Net outflows from U.S. junk bond mutual funds slowed to $69 million in the week ended Wednesday from $1.3 billion the prior week, AMG Data reported late on Thursday.

It was the fourth straight week of outflows from the funds and brought net outflows year to date to about $9.7 billion.

Junk, or high-yield bonds, which lack investment-grade ratings, posted a loss of 1 percent in September, the first negative return since April, according to Merrill Lynch.

Inflation concerns, rising interest rates and heavy supply have all weighed on junk bonds recently, according to strategists.

[JNelson6563]

39. Recommended and an update

10:32, have we hit the oh-so-tiny range we've dangled at mid-day for the last few days?

Dow 10,310.24 +23.14 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,088.11 +4.03 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,195.40 +3.91 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.399% +0.03


We'll see. Will check back. :hi:

Julie

[UpInArms]

40. Gold adds gains (@ $475.70); silver at 7-month high (@ $7.71)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1DD8DA11%2DD440%2D44D3%2DBF5A%2D032C12D2CE21%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed Friday, building on the previous session's advance of nearly $6 an ounce, as silver prices touched their highest level since mid-March.

A weaker U.S. dollar and renewed concerns over potential terrorist acts fed investors' demand for precious metals.

Gold for December delivery added 70 cents to trade at $475.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The benchmark contract, which closed out last week at $472.30, touched a high of $476.80 earlier.

"With the dollar under significant pressure and the Fed taking every opportunity to posture against inflation, one would expect gold to be in strong favor," said Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com.

Meanwhile, December silver was up 11.5 cents at $7.71 an ounce, after trading as high as $7.74, its loftiest price in nearly seven months. It closed last Friday at $7.512.

...more...

[UpInArms]

58. Dec Gold up $3.00 to $478.00 oz

11:24am 10/07/05 DEC GOLD TRADES AT A TWO-WEEK HIGH

11:24am 10/07/05 DEC GOLD UP $3 AT $478/OZ AFTER $478.80 HIGH

adding link and blurb

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.4837609954-845224120&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Gold futures near $479, trade at two-week high

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures traded as high as $478.80 an ounce in New York, their highest since the Sept. 22 overnight high of $479, and they're set to close with a gain of around 1% for the week. "Gold price should continue higher into next week," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. All the "bad news or catalysts" that would generally cause gold prices to fall have been "ineffective," including falling crude oil and a rising dollar, he said. December gold was last at $477.60, up $2.60. December silver was up 14 cents at $7.735 an ounce, trading at its highest since mid-March.

[UpInArms]

74. Gold ends near 18-year high (@ $477.70 oz); copper rallies atop $1.80

1:53pm 10/07/05 DEC COPPER CLOSES AT A RECORD $1.8085/LB, UP 2.55C, OR 1.4%

1:53pm 10/07/05 DEC GOLD MARKS ITS HIGHEST CLOSING LEVEL SINCE LATE 1987

1:53pm 10/07/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $477.70/OZ, UP $2.70, OR 0.6%

1:53pm 10/07/05 DEC SILVER UP 17.5C TO END AT $7.77, HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 9

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.5837226273-845237880&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold closed at $477.70 an ounce, up $2.70 for the session and up over $5 for the week to mark its highest closing level since late December of 1987. Newly found investor interest also helped December silver climb 17.5 cents to end at $7.77 an ounce, up over 3% for the week. December copper closed at a record $1.8085 a pound, up 2.55 cents for the day and up nearly 5% for the week.

[54anickel]

48. Property grabs and the Gulf

Local governments will likely use eminent domain to rebuild; who will that help?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/05/news/economy/eminent_domain_katrina/index.htm

snip>

We're not talking about using it to build new roads or dams or power lines," said Adrian Moore, vice president of research at Reason Public Policy Institute. "We're talking about giving it to businessmen who promise to build something that they'll profit from and leaders that are so desperate to rebuild that they are willing to do it."

The concern is that developers will seize property and put up housing developments that may not be affordable to the disadvantaged public or build large department stores, such as a Wal-Mart or Target on land that was taken.

snip>

According to a CNN report, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin tried to quash rumors that the city would bulldoze entire neighborhoods without consulting owners. He told reporters on Sept. 30 that the Lower Ninth Ward, a historic but largely poor neighborhood, would be treated respectfully and if the city was forced to do any mass demolitions, he planned to "figure out a proper compensation formula for those homeowners and they move either back in those areas or in an area that is comparable." (For more on that story, click here.)

Ed Gilliland, vice president of advisory services and research at International Economic Development Council said it's unlikely that every property owner in the region will take the government buyout despite potential health and safety concerns, making eminent domain a viable and unavoidable tool for revitalization.

An unpopular prospect
Still public opinion for the Kelo ruling has been decidedly negative. The ruling also sparked a bipartisan bill to deny federal funds to any city or state project that uses eminent domain for private gain. The bill is now before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

more...

[AnneD]

96. That SCOTUS ruling about seizing private property

for private gain by eminent domain has stirred up the RW too. It truly goes against the constitution. Look for more bipartisian legislation against it.

[ozymandius]

49. 11:01

Dow 10,308.95 +21.85 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,087.67 +3.59 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,195.03 +3.54 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 43.96 +0.30 (+0.69%)
NYSE Volume 668,538,000
Nasdaq Volume 514,219,000

10:30AM: The indices edge back, yet each maintains a positive stance. The Consumer Staples sector continues to fade, now chalking a 0.4% decline that weakness in a host of sector bellwethers has spurred. Heavy weight Altria (MO 72.25 -0.50) faces selling pressure and extends a 0.7% loss to the sector, and to the Dow, while a 7.3% plunge in shares of Constellation Brands (STZ 23.09 -1.83) drags the sector. After Thursday's closing bell, the alcoholic beverage company reported earnings that matched the Reuters Estimates consensus ($0.41 per share) but which fell below the First Call consensus; in addition, the company issued a fiscal Q3 guidance range that falls at the low end expectations... NYSE Adv/Dec 1717/1114, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1414/1167

[UpInArms]

53. updating blather - fastfood not selling - who needs to eat!

11:00AM: As crude (+$61.75/bbl) spikes above the mornings range, the indices tumbled to the flat line but have recently bounced back above it. Following suit, and not helped by gasoline's continued uptick, the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.1%) has slipped into the red. After yesterday's better than expected stream of same store sales data, retailers (+0.2%) remain in the plus column while the recovered homebuilders extend a 0.4% gain. Weakness in McDonald's (MCD 32.17 -0.56), though, as well as in Wendy's (WEN 45.95 -0.80) adds to the 30.1% dive in Delphi (DPH 1.53 -0.67) shares to challenge the sector's momentum. This morning, the New York Times reported that as the auto part makers' negotiations for concessions from its largest union, the UAW, have stalled, and that the company is poised to file for bankruptcy as early as Sunday evening.NYSE Adv/Dec 1729/1170, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1493/1169

[ozymandius]

55. The Onion did a story on this about a year ago.

They said that people had turned away from fast food restaurants because they had developed an interest in actual food.

[AnneD]

65. Maybe.....

they can't afford the gas to go through the drive thru......

[ozymandius]

54. 11:12 and lower

Dow 10,301.69 +14.59 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,087.08 +3.00 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,194.21 +2.72 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 44.04 +0.38 (+0.87%)
NYSE Volume 726,478,000
Nasdaq Volume 556,949,000

11:00AM: As crude (+$61.75/bbl) spikes above the mornings range, the indices tumbled to the flat line but have recently bounced back above it. Following suit, and not helped by gasoline's continued uptick, the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.1%) has slipped into the red. After yesterday's better than expected stream of same store sales data, retailers (+0.2%) remain in the plus column while the recovered homebuilders extend a 0.4% gain. Weakness in McDonald's (MCD 32.17 -0.56), though, as well as in Wendy's (WEN 45.95 -0.80) adds to the 30.1% dive in Delphi (DPH 1.53 -0.67) shares to challenge the sector's momentum. This morning, the New York Times reported that as the auto part makers' negotiations for concessions from its largest union, the UAW, have stalled, and that the company is poised to file for bankruptcy as early as Sunday evening.NYSE Adv/Dec 1729/1170, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1493/1169

[UpInArms]

56. Scammers Inc: Former Gen Re CEO gets SEC 'Wells Notice,' Berkshire says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.4709153125-845222326&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) (BRKB) said on Friday that Ronald Ferguson, former chief executive of its General Re subsidiary, got a "Wells Notice" from the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of the agency's investigation into so-called finite risk reinsurance. A "Wells Notice" warns that SEC staff is considering recommending civil action and gives the recipient a chance to respond before the agency moves forward with a formal lawsuit. Ferguson stepped down as General Re CEO on Oct. 1, 2001 but stayed on as a consultant until May 20, 2005, when Berkshire ended the relationship, Berkshire said in a statement on its Web site. Ferguson helped arrange a finite reinsurance transaction between General Re and American International Group (AIG) that helped AIG artificially bolster its results, according to a civil lawsuit filed earlier this year by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer.

[UpInArms]

64. Adelphia founder indicted for tax evasion-prosecutors

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T160957Z_01_WEN0655_RTRIDST_0_CRIME-RIGAS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - John Rigas, the founder of cable operator Adelphia Communications Corp (ADELQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) who was convicted of bank and securities fraud, was indicted on new charges of participating in a $300 million tax evasion scheme, U.S. prosecutors said on Friday.

Rigas and his son, Timothy Rigas, were indicted by a federal grand jury in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, for what would be one of the largest personal income tax evasion cases in the United States, the prosecutors said.

Rigas was sentenced in June to 15 years in federal prison for concealing loans and stealing millions of dollars in connection with Adelphia's multibillion-dollar collapse.

[UpInArms]

66. 12:35 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,298.55 +11.45 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,090.66 +6.58 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,194.76 +3.27 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.370 +0.04 (+0.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,073,774,000
Nasdaq Volume 786,504,000

12:00PM: Following four consecutive down days for the broader market, stocks hold onto modest gains midday after September payroll data reflected stronger economic numbers and less inflationary pressure than initially feared...

At 8:30 ET, investors got their first look at Hurricane Katrina's impact on the jobs market. September nonfarm payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years, but a decline of 35K was much less than the -150K economists had expected. Also positive, payrolls in July and August were revised higher by a total of 77K jobs, providing additional evidence that fears associated with hurricane Katrina were, and are, overdone... With regard to sector leadership, Energy continues to provide the bulk of leadership to the upside, as a rebound in crude prices has helped the sector recover some of the 11% lost over the last five sessions. The Materials sector has also tacked on a gain of more than 1.0%, benefiting largely from a 2.6% surge in Dow Chemical (DOW 42.28 +1.09) and renewed buying interest that has lifted 31 of the sector's 32 components...

The Utilities sector has also rebounded nicely, taking advantage of a turnaround in the Treasury market, as the benchmark 10-yr note is now up 6 ticks to yield 4.36%. Consumer Discretionary has traded higher, amid follow-through buying efforts in retail and a rebound in homebuilding, while modest strength in semiconductor and hardware have helped the Technology sector pare some of its 3.9% year-to-date loss... Consumer Staples, however, remains the day's biggest laggard, as a disappointing Q2 (Aug) report from Constellation Brands (STZ 23.34 -1.58) has weighed heaviest on the sector...

Separately, August wholesale inventories rose 0.5% as sales shot 1.3% higher - both posting the strongest gains since April, but the data have been largely overshadowed by the more influential employment report.... DJTA +0.6, DJUA +1.0, DOT +0.1, Nasdaq 100 +0.3, Russell 2000 +0.8, SOX +0.8, S&P Midcap 400 +0.4, XOI +1.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1811/1261, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1626/1162

[UpInArms]

67. N.A. weekly vehicle production seen down 7.5% -- Ward's

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.5274214236-845230083&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Weekly vehicle production in North America is estimated at 335,130, a decrease of 7.5%, according to a weekly update Friday by WardsAuto.com. Calendar year output, including this week's estimates, is 12.7 million vehicles, down 0.1% compared with the year-ago period.

[UpInArms]

73. Bush moving forward on next Fed chairman

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-07T173305Z_01_MOR762666_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-GREENSPAN.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush wants to pick a replacement for retiring Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan as soon as possible, the White House said on Friday.

Spokesman Scott McClellan described Bush as actively in pursuit of the next Fed chairman. Greenspan's 18-year run on the Federal Reserve is expected to end on January 31.

"As soon as possible," McClellan said when asked when Bush might choose a Greenspan successor. "The president will make a decision when he's ready to do so, but we are moving ahead on the nomination."

<snip>

Three potential candidates are regularly mentioned -- Glenn Hubbard, a past adviser to Bush; Harvard economist Martin Feldstein; and Fed Governor-turned-White House adviser Ben Bernanke. But the White House has indicated it also is looking elsewhere, possibly toward Wall Street.

...more at link...

[AnneD]

88. I wouldn't rule out

Barney or any other crony. The best candidate will be the one with the worst record.

[UpInArms]

75. Fannie Mae estimates losses due to hurricanes at $250M-$550M

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38632.5859511458-845238274&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fannie Mae (FNM) estimates its after-tax loss as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita at $250 million to $550 million, according to a filing Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The estimate is for losses as of Sept. 30, the company said. Fannie Mae also said it believes that it has exceeded the 30% capital surplus requirement over its minimum capital requirement as of Sept. 30, in compliance with its regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. The company said it is working with OFHEO to finalize its capital estimation by Oct. 30. In addition, Fannie Mae said it is continuing to review its accounting policies and practices, including regular discussion with OFHEO and its new auditor, Deloitte & Touche.

I guess this is more of the "no impact" that Katrina is having :crazy:

[UpInArms]

76. 2:24 EST stagnant market - guess it's a "hold over the long weekend"?

Dow 10,287.98 +0.88 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,087.54 +3.46 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,193.70 +2.21 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 -0.05 (-0.11%)

NYSE Volume 1,478,588,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,060,290,000

2:00PM: More of the same for the equity market...

A number of retailers show strong follow-through action after yesterday's stream of Sept. same store sales data that proved better than the market had feared. Of them, J.C. Penney (JCP 45.46 +0.87) and Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD 120.61 +1.54) are chalking the heftiest gains, while BBBY, CC, COST, DDS, JWN, and KSS are amongst retailers rising over 1.0% today. Of the group's few weak links, CVS (CVS 25.51 -0.79) has faced the most selling pressure; although the drug retailer delivered same store sales (+5.7%) that matched analysts' expectations, its accompanying downside Q3 guidance sent shares lower over the course of the current and previous sessions.NYSE Adv/Dec 1888/1248, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1724/1167

1:30PM: The market's static stance has been maintained, leaving the indices in place since the previous comment. As the Energy sector has recaptured the leadership position today and begins to pare its 11% loss for the week, its subgroups dominate the S&P's top ten list. Refiners have jumped 3.9%, boosting its 80.1% year-to-date gain, while drillers (+2.3%), explorers (+2.3%), and integrated oil (+1.7%) help push the sector to a 1.7% gain. On a week-to-date basis, though, Energy areas occupy five of ten laggard slots, on account of a six day streak during which the price of crude was considerably shaved. Drillers, down 9.2%, place last, followed by explorers (-9.0%), storage (-7.8%), equipment (-7.7%), and integrated oil (-7.1%)...

[ozymandius]

91. Pre-weekend selling is so yesterday. Hipsters now unload mid-week.

I read it in my fortune cookie.

[UpInArms]

78. FACTBOX-FX reserves, US deficits and global imbalances

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-07T175837Z_01_N07408999_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-GLOBAL-RESERVES-FACTBOX.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Massive accumulation of foreign currency reserves in recent years, mainly by Asian central banks, slowed in recent months -- with only China still adding substantial amounts of new reserves through August.

The build-up of reserves is one manifestation of the global imbalances in international accounts about which world economic policy-makers continually fret.

These imbalances in international trade accounts and in savings and investments flows are illustrated most clearly in a U.S. current account deficit now in excess of 6 percent of national income.

Following are a series of facts on official dollar holdings worldwide, ranking reserve totals by country and size and compared to the size of U.S. fiscal deficits and bond markets.
-------------------------------------------------------------- INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES

* World foreign currency reserves, excluding gold, totaled $3.832 trillion in March 2005, according to the International Monetary Fund. That was up 3 percent from the end of 2004, up about 25 percent from 2003 and almost double 1999 levels.
* Developing countries held about 66 percent of these reserves at some $2.534 trillion worth, according to IMF data. Their share of world forex reserve holdings has risen from 63 percent in 2003 and 59 percent in 1999.
* IMF data shows 65.9 percent of world FX reserves were denominated in U.S. dollars in 2004, little changed from the 65.8 percent recorded in 2003. The U.S. dollar share of world reserves declined from about 71 percent in 2000 but is up from 59 percent in 1995. However, the dollar's share of developing country reserves has declined steadily from more than 70 percent in the mid-1990s to 59.9 percent in 2004.
* Last year, 24.9 percent of world reserves were in euros, down slightly from 25.3 percent in 2003 but up from the 17.9 percent share held when the euro was launched in 1999. The share of euros in developing countries reserves has risen to 29.2 percent last year from 19.9 percent in 1999.
* The Japanese yen made up 3.9 percent of world reserves, down from 4.1 percent in 2003 and 6.8 percent in 1995. The British pound made up 3.3 percent of reserves last year, up from 2.6 percent in 2003 and 2.1 percent in 1995.

...more...

[AnneD]

79. Don't know if you saw it on cspan

the House DEM's and some GOP's just went ballistic on the vote over the consumer energy bill. The speaker tried to ignore voting rules and keep it open until they could twist some arms (heard in the background). DEM's kept calling parlimentary inquiry and speaker kept denying. All of a sudden, everyone started shouting shame,shame. It passed after they kept it open way past time. The terms bananna republic and culture of corruption were bandied about. The audio kept cutting out.

[UpInArms]

89. there's a thread no on this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1835221

GOP extends vote time, then closes early before Dems can return to vote..


Pelosi calls conference... Developing...

http://www.rawstory.com /

(no direct link yet)

[UpInArms]

84. 3:22 EST more stagnation and bloviation

Dow 10,293.75 +6.65 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,090.07 +5.99 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,194.99 +3.50 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 -0.05 (-0.11%)

NYSE Volume 1,757,136,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,238,667,000

3:00PM: Market still confined to a tight range heading into the final hour of trading... The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE and Nasdaq hold a slim 17 to 13 advantage over decliners while the ratio of up to down volume also paints a similarly neutral stance... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade above initial support but modest buying interest leaves in question whether or not resistance levels of 10310, 1195 and 2093, respectively, can be breached...NYSE Adv/Dec 1786/1395, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1702/1331

2:30PM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages still hover around the unchanged mark... While sectors like Energy and Utilities - the year's best performing sectors by far with respective gains of 29% and 15% - remain two of the day's biggest standouts, Materials and Industrials, which have turned in two of the year's worst performances with respective losses of 10.7% and 5.2%, have also faired well amid some bargain hunting efforts following four consecutive market downturns...

But with the Treasury market closing early ahead of the Columbus Day holiday and volume drying up heading into the weekend, there's been little conviction behind much of this afternoon's activity... NYSE Adv/Dec 1757/1405, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1647/1263

[UpInArms]

86. 3.33 EST DOW trying to sneak up on 10,300

Dow 10,296.55 +9.45 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,090.11 +6.03 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,195.16 +3.67 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 -0.05 (-0.11%)

NYSE Volume 1,815,419,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,277,134,000

Look at the long weekend confidence! Wowie Zowie! Guess the risk adverse are growing some 'nads - ignoring the terror warnings and the soon to be announced indictments - they are going to try to end this week with one positive day!

[UpInArms]

90. blather and updated numbers

3:49 EST

Dow 10,297.59 +10.49 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,091.82 +7.74 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,195.89 +4.40 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 -0.05 (-0.11%)

NYSE Volume 1,922,583,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,344,578,000

3:25PM: The market's majors continue to run in place, as the absence of a catalyst to excite either buyers or sellers has stunted afternoon action ahead of the weeked. Separately, the Aug. consumer credit report was released at the top of the hour - checking in at $4.9 bln vs. the $5.0 bln consensus estimate, a slight increase over July's $4.4 bln. Since the data are subject to massive revisions, and because they are released well after every other consumer spending indicator, the market has basically ignored the report and appears poised to close within the session's very tight trading range.

[ozymandius]

92. closing numbers

Whoo! Way to rally around good news folks! :eyes:
Dow 10,292.31 +5.21 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,090.35 +6.27 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,195.90 +4.41 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 43.61 -0.05 (-0.11%)
NYSE Volume 2,104,611,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,445,202,000

blather later

[UpInArms]

93. have a great weekend Ozy!

see you next week!

:hi:

[ozymandius]

94. Thanks UIA!

Have a wonderful weekend yourself. See you Monday!

:hi: :toast:

[ozymandius]

95. blather

Close Dow +5.21 at 10292.31, S&P +4.41 at 1195.90, Nasdaq +6.27 at +2090.35:

Closing within the tight trading range that had enclosed them all day, the market's major averages finished the session with their first gains of the week. Following four consecutive down days that pushed the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq to an average 3.0% loss, stocks held onto gains - though modest - after September payroll data reflected stronger economic numbers and less inflationary pressure than had initially been feared. At 8:30 ET, investors got their first look at Hurricane Katrina's impact on the jobs market. September nonfarm payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years, but a decline of 35K was much less than the -150K economists had expected. Underpinning the bullish read was a pair of upside revisions, as payrolls in July and August were revised higher by a total of 77K jobs, traders received additional evidence that concerns associated with hurricane Katrina were, and perhaps are, overdone. With regard to sector leadership, Energy reassumed the driver seat, and, with its 1.9% gain, recovered some of the 11% it had lost between Monday and Thursday. A rebound in crude prices ($61.84/bbl) - which ended the commodity's six-day slide - sent each of the sector's 29 issues to a positive finish, and moreover, to a gain that exceeded 1.0%. The Materials sector managed a respectable 1.0% rise, trailing only Energy. But, as it's one of the least influential sectors - accounting for just 2.9% of the S&P's weighting - its performance failed to provide much in the way of leadership. While buying interest was piqued across the board, a rebound in Phelps Dodge (PD 128.66 +3.73) - reversing yesterday's downgrade-induced plunge - paced the way higher. Also recovering some lost ground, taking advantage of a turnaround in the Treasury market, was the Utilities sector; again, though, a small S&P weighting (3.5%) did little to catalyze a larger gain for the broader market. Retailers (+0.6%) drew respectable follow-through buying interest on the heels of yesterday's solid Sept. same store sales data, and paired with the recovered homebuilders (+0.9%) to keep the Consumer Discretionary sector's nose above water. A 1.3% jump in diskdrives teamed with relative strength in semiconductors (+0.6%) and hardware (+0.5%) in boosting the Tech sector to its 0.2% gain. Regarding tech issues, reports Research in Motion (RIMM 64.70 -2.27) stepped closer to a ruling that bans it from selling its Blackberry in the U.S. sent shares slipping 3.4% and served as somewhat of a cap on the Nasdaq's upward efforts. Aside from a 0.5% loss in Telecommunications, the Consumer Staples sector occupied that laggard slot today. A disappointing Q2 (Aug) report from Constellation Brands (STZ 23.45 -1.47) weighed heaviest, while the considerable selling pressure that CVS (CVS 25.63 -0.67) endured - and the 2.7% decline it levied - made matters worse. Separately, August wholesale inventories rose 0.5% upon a 1.3% jump in sales - both areas posting the strongest gains since April - while August consumer credit ($4.9 bln) checked in according to economists' expectations. Both reports were, however, essentially overshadowed by the more influential employment report. DJTA +0.78, DJUA +1.26, DOT +0.27, Nasdaq 100 +0.19, Russell 2000 +0.77, SOX +0.60, S&P Midcap 400 +0.44, XOI +2.13, NYSE Adv/Dec 1980/1284, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1709/1276