STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 29 September

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 29, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 114 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 283 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 347 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1404
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 28, 2005

Dow... 10,473.09 +16.88 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,115.40 -1.02 (-0.05%)
S&P 500... 1,216.89 +1.23 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.26% -0.04 (-0.91%)
Gold future... 473.10 +6.90 (+1.46%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

Inflation Fears Supported by Rallies in Oil and Natural Gas, with Natural Gas hitting New Record

Gold renewed its climb Wednesday, rising past $470 an ounce intraday before settling to $468.5 an ounce, up $6.20. The rally in gold was bolstered by inflation fears as a broad commodity rise was seen as the CRB index closed at 333.33, up 6.30, crude oil up $1.28 to $66.35, and natural gas rising to an all time high of $14.10 per million British Thermal Units (BTU), up $0.98, largely in part to the recent hurricane disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and strong demand for heating fuel.

-cut-

The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released an article today stating that an increase in winter demand is expected to further stretch current natural gas supplies. “U.S. natural gas markets so far appear to be compensating for ongoing Hurricane Katrina-related supply disruptions, but Hurricane Rita and an anticipated increase in heating demand are expected to stretch natural gas supplies even further, likely resulting in higher wholesale costs this winter,” said NGSA in their annual assessment.

Both Hurricane Katrina and Rita have cut into natural gas production increases this year, as the nation’s 6,000 natural gas producers were on track to expand our domestic production this year prior to the hurricanes, despite more wells and increased exploration activity, said NGSA Chairman Joseph A. Blount. Blount expects production to remain relatively flat while demand is on the rise, tightening the supply-demand balance.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil holds above $66

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held firm above $66 a barrel on Thursday stoked by fears that hurricane-wrecked U.S. refineries would be unable to churn out ample heating fuel to warm American consumers this winter.

-cut-

U.S. crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 6 cents at $66.41 a barrel by 1000 GMT, after a $1.28 jump on Wednesday. London Brent crude was up 9 cents at $64.02.

"Oil futures are looking forward to a much colder-than-expected winter," said Gordon Kwan, oil and gas analyst with CLSA in Hong Kong.

"The fact that we have had so many refineries shut down means we are going into this winter on perhaps not enough heating oil."

more

[UpInArms]

47. Crude at $67.05 bbl - NatGas (new record) $14.34 mln btus

10:02am 09/29/05 NOV CRUDE UP 70C AT $67.05/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:02am 09/29/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 1.7% AT A RECORD $14.34/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

100. US Senate Democrats eye 40 mln bbl gasoline reserve

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T161725Z_01_N29218198_RTRIDST_0_HURRICANES-ENERGY-CONGRESS.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Senate Democrats on
Thursday proposed creating a 40-million-barrel gasoline
stockpile to ward off price shocks from future hurricanes and
other disasters.

A bill backed by Dick Durbin of Illinois and Chuck Schumer
of New York would establish a fuel reserve with up to 40
million barrels of unleaded gasoline and 7.5 million barrels of
jet fuel. It would cost about $2.5 billion to fill such a
reserve based on year-to-date average U.S. spot market prices,
Democratic aides said.

The United States already has the nearly 700-million-barrel
Strategic Petroleum Reserve for crude oil, which the Bush
administration recently tapped to help refiners short of supply
after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast.

But the benefits of crude oil reserves are limited when
hurricanes flood or damage U.S. refineries, crimping their
ability to churn crude oil into gasoline and other refined
products.

The current U.S. stockpile "puts crude oil in the hands of
refiners who can't refine it quickly enough to help the
market," Durbin said.

A dozen refineries remain shut after Hurricane Rita and
last month's Hurricane Katrina, eliminating the production of
more than 3 million barrels per day of fuel and raising the
danger of shortages of gasoline and heating oil heading into
the winter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

126. Gulf Oil still 98.6% offline - Gulf NatGas at 80% offline

2:07pm 09/29/05 98.6% DAILY GULF OIL OUTPUT OFFLINE VS 100% WEDNESDAY: MMS

2:07pm 09/29/05 DAILY GULF NATURAL-GAS OUTPUT OFFLINE STILL AROUND 80%: MMS

[ozymandius]

3. Fossil Fuels Set to Become Relics, Says Research Group

http://news.yahoo.com/s/oneworld/45361195801127935317

WASHINGTON, D.C., Sep 28 (OneWorld) - Energy drawn from the wind, tide, sun, Earth's heat, and farm waste is poised to begin replacing oil and other fossil fuels, a prominent research group said Wednesday in a wake-up call to industry executives and government officials worldwide.

''Energy markets are about to experience a seismic shift,'' Christopher Flavin, president of the Washington, D.C.-based Worldwatch Institute, said in a speech to oil executives and energy ministers in Johannesburg, South Africa, site of the 18th World Petroleum Congress.

''The question for oil executives is whether you're in the oil business or the energy business.''

-cut-

However, the research group added, oil production is falling in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries. These include six of the 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

more...

[ClintonTyree]

4. Thanks for these posts everyday, Ozy.......

people take them for granted I think and we need to give you kudos for helping us all keep an eye on the Street everyday. :toast:

That being said, in your opinion, when will the next big "correction" take place? The already fragile economy is being battered by oil prices, deficits that are our of control, waning consumer confidence, Katrina and Rita costs and the new bankruptcy bill going into affect October 17 with people's credit card payments soon to double, how long can the house of cards stand? I know, if anyone knew the answer to that question they'd be living on their own Island right now and not worrying about the "bush economic miracle", but I'd like to hear your opinion.

Will there be another transfer of wealth from the middle class investor to the rich soon, or can they keep patching the holes with toilet paper and bubble gum for a while yet? I can feel it in my bones that it's coming, at least I think so, but the opinion of one far more educated in this area would enlighten me even more. Thanks again, and keep up the good work. :toast:

[ozymandius]

6. Thank you ClintonTyree!

In response to your question, no one knows when the next big correction will take place. Historically, these things just bolt out of nowhere. If a "correction" were anticipated, you can bet that special agents would be on top of it, as no doubt they have been in the past.

In a metaphorical sense, our current economic situation is like a house of cards. The structural security is being whittled away as price inflation among vital elements (oil, natural gas, gasoline and the like) outpace wage inflation. As money is diverted into the basics, there is little money left to drive our economy based on consumption. This will have a peripheral effect on businesses that thrive on discretionary consumer spending. Pull away a few of these cards and the structure, though hobbled, will still stand.

Corporations will surely feel the pinch. Local businesses will surely feel it too.

Then there is the wild card of consumer debt. That is the huge potentially crippling element in our economy. It also stands to be a potentially devastating factor once the new bankruptcy laws are enacted. To anyone reading this who may be considering filing for bankruptcy protection - READ THIS. The new laws go into effect on 17 October. This is not the deadline to file. Many servers handling bankrupcty filings will begin to shut down on 5 October. The server traffic will dwindle to a trickle from the 5th until it completely stops on the 17th.

I do not know what sum affect these new draconian laws will have on the economy. I sense that it will be no good. I have spoken with someone who handles bankruptcy cases. This is how I know about the servers being shut down. My acquaintence says that credit card companies, the main holders of consumer debt, are acting aggressively in advance of these new laws taking effect. After the laws are enacted, the consumer will have little recourse to restructure debt obligations. The new laws have proven to be something of a trojan horse for the banks: unintended consequences such as debt being paid down early, cutting their profits. Under the new laws, it seems reasonable that the banks could be crippling themselves in that debt on the consumer end, would be serviced while debt repayment among other lendees could be staunched.

More later... perhaps after a few edits.

[ozymandius]

37. insatiable federal debt

You know there's nothing conservative about the federal budget deficit. Our appetite for foreign capital averages $2 billion per day. What will we do if this capital decides to go elsewhere? It will. It's only a matter of time. Money goes where there is a guaranteed return. Emerging economies make our debtor economy less appealing.

But what about the money that we domestically generate?

The new argument among progressives against tax cuts is: "How are you going to pay for it?" When "conservatives" consider slashing funding for infrastructure needs and general welfare issues in favor of corporations and military industrial boondoggles, the progressive has a duty to oppose those tax cuts and boondoggle expenses on humanitarian grounds. As we have seen: we have no margin, no cushion for unforseen and unavoidable natural disasters. We cannot afford another Katrina under our present circumstances. The question here is equally valid: how are we going to afford it? Should foreign capital disappear then the federal government will need to borrow money domestically, causing huge spikes in interest rates and drying up capital that is otherwise needed in the private sector.

ClintonTyree, I am amazed daily at how the system manages not to fall apart.

Of course, these comments are merely my opinion. This and $1.65 will buy you a cup of coffee.

[AnneD]

60. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Excellent thumbnail sketch of the economy Ozy. Now add those anemic job growth numbers and it is easy to understand the consumer confidence numbers. All I can say is when the mata does hit the fan, we will once again have a bunch of 'suprised' economist standing around, scratching their collective head...what putzs. Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[JNelson6563]

24. Let's nominate for greatest page

IMO this post should make the greatest page daily. Of course I am completely unbiased. ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

32. Thank you Julie.

:toast:

Glad to see you here. Even our bond trader, Capn Sunshine, has made an appearance among other long-time regulars. It's much more "homey" with old friends dropping by.

Ozy :hi:

[converted_democrat]

59. done...n/t

[UpInArms]

69. g'morning c_d!

:hi:

[converted_democrat]

84. Right back at ya, UIA......

:hi:

[plasticsundance]

101. Yes Indeed ... kudos

Ozy does a great job. I look forward to reading his Stock Market Watch everyday. Let's not forget UpInArms and Julie. I know there are others also. Well done.

[JNelson6563]

5. Nominated!

Today's 'toon alone qualifies the SWT for the Greatest page. :toast:

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.31 Change -0.16 (-0.18%)

Dollar Unchanged as Record High Natural Gas Prices Offset Strong Durable Goods Orders

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3817&Itemid=39

US Dollar - The dollar is slightly weaker against the majors, but overall the daily change is fairly nominal. A strong durable goods orders report was offset by a rebound in crude oil prices and a sharp drop in mortgage applications. It will be hard for dollar bears to argue about any weakness in this report with many sectors experiencing a rebound in orders for goods made to last for more than three years. The market had originally expected the orders to rise by 0.7 percent, but instead it increased a whopping 3.3 percent. Excluding the more volatile transportation component, orders increased 4.2 percent. The only pitfall of the data is that it is for the month of August and the market has learned to discount most pre-September numbers. Mortgage applications though, is much more telling. This is the biggest drop in applications since mid-July. The index fluctuates frequently, but it is still worth noting since we are seeing more and more evidence that demand is waning. Traders are also eyeing commodity prices. Even though oil is only higher by a $1.28, natural gas prices hit yet another all-time high. Given the short attention span of the markets though and the warm weather today, it isn’t surprising that traders have once again pushed back fears of what this means for consumers when the weather turns cooler. With half of the country using natural gas to heat their homes, the persistent rise in natural gas should be a bigger concern than the rise in crude oil. Massachusetts Electric has already announced their plans to hike energy rates by 27%, which would be effective between November and April. Other companies in the region such as Keyspan and Nstar have also proposed a winter energy price increase. Yet, Massachusetts is not the only state where energy prices are expected to rise, the Railroad Commission of Texas warned yesterday that Texans could expect an up to 50% increase in their home heating bills this year. But the dollar rages on as traders juggle momentum and flows with longer-term fundamentals. It remains to be seen who will win the battle. In the meantime, the US economic calendar is extremely busy tomorrow. Like durable goods, GDP could be less significant this time around because it is so backward looking.

...more...

Dollar Sets Retrace Trap For Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3826&Itemid=39

Dollar longs became a little nervous as the price action stalled, however for any large move to occur someone has to be on the wrong side of it and the current retrace is only a precursor, even if it’s over 100 pips. As the dollar remains the underdog of the market, most traders fail to realize that the greenback posted significant gains since January and retraces are only a part of the overall price action. Those who jump to conclusions to fast often fail to land softly.

<snipping charts>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls continued to slowly advance against the dollar longs as the latest counterattack is nothing more than a retrace that usually precedes a large move. As the dollar bulls give up some of the recently conquered territory, a pullback toward the 1.2126, a level marked by the August 19 daily low will most likely see the greenback longs spring a trap upon unsuspecting euro bulls. An upcoming counterattack will most likely see the pair gather enough momentum and break below the psychologically important 1.2000 handle and with sustained momentum seeing the dollar longs pushing the single currency below the 1.1982, a July 26 daily low. As greenback bulls remain unopposed and continue their march though the euro held territory the next move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test the single currency defenses around 1.1876, a defensive position established by the 2005 Low. A break of the current 2005 low at 1.1876 will most likely see the single currency surrender further ground to the greenback as it would confirm a dollar dominated trend and see the pair head toward the next major level at 1.1760, a 2004 Low. Indicators are favoring the dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while extremely oversold Stochastic adds to a trending outlook as most prolonged moves to the downside happened after oscillators became oversold.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs continued to raise a flag on the mast that was the sharp move by the dollar longs during September 27 greenback offensive. As the price action remains stagnant, a retrace toward the 112.52, a September 23, daily high will most likely see the dollar bulls spring into action and once again push the Japanese yen longs above the 113.00 figure and resume their advance toward 113.68, a 2005 high and a gateway to the psychologically important 115.00 handle. As greenback longs approach 115.00 handle they will most likely have to contend with the Japanese yen defenses around 114.92, a 2004 high. A break above the 114.92 will most likely see the greenback bulls push the pair above the psychologically important 115.00 handle and take on the yen defenses around 115.76, a level marked by the September 4, 2003, Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic most likely acts as a confirmation for the possible trend that started around the 109.00 handle.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Today's Reports: (It's MaeveDay!)

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200539.html

Sep 29	8:30 AM		Chain Deflator-Final	Q2	-	NA	2.4%	2.4%	-	
Sep 29	8:30 AM		GDP-Final		Q2	-	NA	3.3%	3.3%	-	
Sep 29	8:30 AM		Initial Claims		09/24	-	NA	NA	NA	-	
Sep 29	10:00 AM	Help-Wanted Index	Aug	-	NA	39	39	-

(Briefing.com has not put in any numbers for the initial claims - so here is what I found at CNN:

http://money.cnn.com/markets/IRC/index.html?cal=50&eventID=8856BE15-492F-4CA4-8E6F-E546673A6173&miniCalFocus=9/18/2005

Event (Indicator)	Consensus	Actual		+/-	
	
  New Claims, Level	 450.00K	 432.00K	 -18.00

[Maeve]

18. Briefing.com predictions

One of my favorite sources was always http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business
for the economic calendar

That's Briefing's forcast, market expects and prior:
Sep 29 08:30 Initial Claims 09/24 400K 420K 432K

[Maeve]

19. Claims fall more than expected (and last week's revised up)

U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL BY 79,000 TO 356,000

Last week's revised up to 435K to get that 79K figure

[UpInArms]

30. Jobless Claims Related to Katrina Climb

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1169301

WASHINGTON Sep 29, 2005 — The number of Americans thrown out of work by Hurricane Katrina climbed by another 60,000 last week, pushing the total number of unemployed workers seeking jobless benefits because of the storm to 279,000.

The latest weekly jobless figure comes four weeks after the storm slammed into the Gulf Coast in late August, shutting down thousands of businesses and forcing people to evacuate.

Analysts said they expect more jobless claims to come in from Katrina as a flood of applications is processed, many taken by unconventional means such as mobile units dispatched to shelters. Those claims will be mixed with jobless benefits that are expected to rise because of Hurricane Rita, which hit Texas and Louisiana last Saturday.

The 279,000 total Katrina-related claims included the 60,000 filed last week and a revised 108,000 claims filed two weeks ago, a figure that had originally been put at 103,000 claims. In the first two weeks after the storm hit, claims had totaled 20,000 and 91,000.

<snip>

Some private economists have predicted that as many as a half million people could lose their jobs because of Katrina, which is expected to be the most expensive hurricane in U.S. history.

...more...

[54anickel]

31. Dollar firms to highs on jobless claims

HA! That Dollar Watch text reads like some kind of Marvel Comic book today! The trap is set, the Underdog is going to again save the day! :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050929/markets_forex_claims.html?.v=1

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar pushed to session highs against the euro on Thursday, after a report on U.S. initial jobless claims came in stronger than expected.
The after-effects of Hurricane Katrina in distorting some regional U.S. labor markets complicated a clear reading of the claims data, but some currency analysts said the claims report hinted at a stronger-than-expected monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report for September.

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to 356,000 in the latest week compared with expectations for 420,000.

The euro (EUR=) slipped to session lows around $1.2012 according to Reuters data from around $1.2050 shortly before the data and down about 0.2 percent from levels late on Wednesday in New York.

[UpInArms]

33. check out the spike on the dollar chart

Last trade 89.57 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

Settle 89.47 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.25 Previous Close 89.47

High 89.59 Low 89.19

Last tick: 2005-09-29 08:57:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

:eyes:

[54anickel]

35. LOOK!!! Up in the sky!

[UpInArms]

38. It's a bird! It's a plane! No.... it's

"Chopper" Ben!

[UpInArms]

21. Thanks Maeve!

I've now bookmarked that site for future reference :hi:

Isn't it lovely how they keep moving the numbers around to make everything rosy?

[UpInArms]

20. reports tumbling in:

8:29am 09/29/05 U.S. WEEKLY CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 2.8 MLN

8:29am 09/29/05 60,000 KATRINA-RELATED JOBLESS CLAIMS IN LATEST WEEK

8:29am 09/29/05 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL BY 79,000 TO 356,000

8:30am 09/29/05 U.S. Q2 CORPORATE PROFITS UP REV 4.6% VS 6.1% PREV EST.

8:30am 09/29/05 U.S. Q2 GDP CORE PCE INDEX UP REV 1.7% VS 1.6% PREV

8:30am 09/29/05 U.S. Q2 GDP UNREVISED AT UP 3.3% AS EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. Q2 GDP unrevised at 3.3% growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B92281E46%2D24FE%2D4EF4%2DA604%2D7D9BB1C0DF2A%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy was sailing along smoothly in the months before two hurricanes plowed into the Gulf Coast region, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Second quarter gross domestic product increased at a 3.3% annual rate, just down from a 3.8% growth rate in the first quarter. The estimate matches the government's previous estimate for second quarter growth.

The unchanged estimate for second quarter growth was in line with the forecasts of Wall Street economists according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

The second revision to real gross domestic product in the April-June quarter found an upward revision to consumer spending offset by a larger trade deficit.

Core inflation was revised higher.

Corporate profits from current production were revised lower, rising 4.6%, or $59.3 billion, to $1.35 trillion annualized. Before-tax profits are up 32.6% year-on-year, while after-tax profits are up 31.6%.

...more...

[ozymandius]

50. NPR news headlines just said

that the Treasury Department expects the storms to erase 1% of GDP growth over the next quarter.

EDIT: but then I see that in another post

[UpInArms]

51. Help-Wanted Index off 4 points - Down to 35

10:05am 09/29/05 HELP-WANTED AD INDEX OFF 4 POINT IN AUG: CONFERENCE BOARD

10:06am 09/29/05 HELP-WANTED AD INDEX 35 IN AUG VS 39 IN JULY, 37 A YEAR AGO

[UpInArms]

54. Help-wanted ads in U.S. newspapers fall in August

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T135910Z_01_NAT001816_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HELPWANTED-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The number of help-wanted ads
in U.S. newspapers fell in August, a private research group
said on Thursday.

The Conference Board said its gauge of help-wanted ad
volume fell to 35 from 39 in July. It was 37 a year ago.

The data show job growth has been "downsized
significantly," said Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist,
in a statement.

"Before the storms, there was a chance for 150,000 to
175,000 jobs per month over the near term. However, prospects
may now be reduced by as much as half of that," he said.

Hurricane Katrina slammed into the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug.
29 while Hurricane Rita followed in late September.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. White House expects 3rd quarter slowdown

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-28T191800Z_01_MOR868181_RTRUKOC_0_US-HURRICANES-GROWTH.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - White House economist Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the administration expects the hurricanes that battered the Gulf Coast to shave up to 1 percentage point from the U.S. growth rate in the third quarter, but that there was little chance of a recession.

"There are various estimates about the third quarter impact," Bernanke told reporters. "Our CEA (Council of Economic Advisers) numbers are somewhere between a half and one percentage point on growth. That would still probably leave us at a decent rate of growth for the third quarter."

Bernanke said he expects the U.S. growth rate to bounce back starting in the fourth quarter, which begins October 1. "We see that coming back in the fourth quarter and going on into next year," he said.

"I don't see any significant risk of a recession. I think consumer spending is going to remain strong, underlying momentum is good, income/job creation is good and, of course, the rebuilding itself is going to create jobs and activity," he added.

[54anickel]

34. Sheesh, now I've got another tune stuck in my noodle

Skating away,
Skating away-ay
Skating away
On the thin ice of a new day-ay-ay-ay-a-ay


Ben's gonna try droppin' money from the sky again.

[AnneD]

63. Hey 54anickel

Bungle in the jungle might sum it up better- oh my another JT fan.

[54anickel]

72. Ewww yeah - perfect! Monkeys, kittens, snakes, tombstones and pawns!

Just say a word and the boys will be right there:
With claws at your back to send a chill through the night air.
Is it so frightening to have me at your shoulder?
Thunder and lightning couldn’t be bolder.
I’ll write on your tombstone, ``i thank you for dinner.’’
This game that we animals play is a winner.

Let’s bungle in the jungle --- well, that’s all right by me.
I’m a tiger when I want love,
But I’m a snake if we disagree.

The rivers are full of crocodile nasties
And he who made kittens put snakes in the grass.
He’s a lover of life but a player of pawns ---
Yes, the king on his sunset lies waiting for dawn
To light up his jungle
As play is resumed.
The monkeys seem willing to strike up the tune.

[UpInArms]

88. The monkeys seem willing to strike up the tune.

Ewwww!

That one comes a bit too close to the truth for comfort!

[AnneD]

105. And you didn't even

get into the the description of animal habits
"Walk through the forest of palm tree apartments
Scoff at the monkeys that live in their dark tents.
Down by the waterhole---drunk every friday---
eating their nuts--- saving their raisins for sunday"

[54anickel]

106. Yeah, I sorta skipped right into the 2nd verse ;- )

I love the tombstone line!

[AnneD]

112. me too...

it's a circle of life thang..

[ozymandius]

53. jobs and activity

It will not create sustainable income generation. It will fire up some debt. It will have the sum affect of moving money from one place to another with no appreciable growth, IMO.

[UpInArms]

55. "Chopper" Ben has learned how to recite his RW-spin

well - but knowing one's lines doesn't not make lies become truth.

[UpInArms]

10. Fannie Mae shares plunge on accounting report

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-28T230630Z_01_N28331701_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FANNIEMAE-REGULATOR-UPDATE-3.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Shares in Fannie Mae plunged on Wednesday after a report saying investigators found new accounting violations at the mortgage finance enterprise, which is already under scrutiny for bookkeeping distortions.

A spokeswoman for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which oversees Fannie Mae's financial soundness, would not confirm or deny on Wednesday a Dow Jones report that extensive additional problems had been found.

"We have an ongoing examination and I have no comment," said Corinne Russell, an OFHEO spokeswoman.

Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares tumbled following the report, which said investigators discovered evidence that executives overvalued assets, underreported credit losses, and misused tax credits. The article cited unnamed sources close to, or who have been involved in, the inquiries.

Fannie Mae stock had been down less than 1 percent before the article was published at about 1:20 p.m. EDT (1720 GMT), but quickly moved lower. Shares closed at $41.71, down 10.7 percent, their biggest one-day drop since the market crash of October 1987.

The slide wiped out more than $4 billion of the stock's market value.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Fannie Mae Investigation May Extend to January, Rudman Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=alhWIhfXacgM&refer=news_index

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae investigators may need until January to complete a report on as much as $10.8 billion in bookkeeping errors at the government-chartered mortgage finance company, said Warren Rudman, who's heading the probe.

``We are looking at all the accounting issues we have looked at all along, and at this point, we don't have any conclusions,'' Rudman, a former U.S. Senator, said yesterday in an interview in Washington. ``We are still hoping to wrap up the investigation by the end of December, and if we don't make it we'll do it in January.''

Shares of Fannie Mae yesterday tumbled the most since the stock market crash of 1987 after Dow Jones reported ``new and pervasive accounting violations'' were uncovered by investigators, citing people ``close to, or who have been involved'' in the probe that it didn't identify. The stock fell 11 percent to $41.71, the lowest since July 1997, and wiped out about $4.82 billion in market value. Rudman declined to comment on the report.

Fannie Mae shares are down 41 percent this year as investors wait for the company to restate earnings going back to 2001. The accounting mistakes cost Chief Executive Franklin Raines and Chief Financial Officer Timothy Howard their jobs and prompted calls for stronger federal regulation.

The restatement may take until the second half of next year, Daniel Mudd, who was named chief executive in June, told the company's investors last month. Mudd, 47, joined Washington-based Fannie Mae in 2000 as vice chairman and chief operating officer.

...more...

[54anickel]

61. FANNIE MAE BE KICKED

http://www.nypost.com/business/28649.htm

snip>

The new woes also include the misuse of lower-income housing tax credits and the potential use of a controversial form of insurance called finite reinsurance, said the investigators cited by Dow Jones.

"The question the new revelations really raise is fraud," said Bert Ely, a former Fannie Mae consultant turned critic.

"Were these accounting errors or done intentionally? If they were intentional, we are beginning to approach record levels of deceit."

snip>

If Fannie is forced to restate its taxable income for 2003, for example, the jump from its current 25.9 percent rate to the top corporate rate of 35 percent would cost it $952 million, Ely said.

With tax credits being examined back into the late 1990s, Fannie might be looking at an additional $4 billion to $5 billion in taxes, plus interest.

more...

[54anickel]

64. Fannie Shares Fall the Most Since 1987 on Dow Report (Update5)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aC4US240HQTw&refer=us

snip>

Company executives embellished earnings by overvaluing assets, underreporting credit losses and misusing tax credits, according to Dow Jones, citing people ``close to, or who have been involved'' in the investigation it didn't identify. Evidence indicates Washington-based Fannie Mae purchased so-called finite insurance policies to hide earnings losses after they were incurred, according to Dow Jones.

``If Fannie Mae is using finite insurance to offload losses that would generate a significant amount of concern in the investor community,'' said Edwin Groshans, an analyst at Fox- Pitt, Kelton Inc. in New York.

snip>

``Also, how big of an issue is this? Did the company know, and are these issues why Dan Mudd came out and said the company wouldn't put out financial reports until the second half of 2006?'' Fox-Pitt's Groshans said.

more...

Lots of questions and everyone seems tight lipped - declines to comment, not returning calls, couldn't be reached, un-named sources, numerous unidentified accounting issues...this is getting scary.

[lovuian]

99. This Fannie Mae Scandal may make the Savings &Loan Crisis

look like a piece of cake!!!

FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD!!!

[54anickel]

107. Yeah, but it seems there's no Bush relative involved in this one - hence

Snow & Greenspin reciting the "not too big to fail". Hmmmm, no bailout for you today!

[UpInArms]

11. Former FDA Chief Denies Financial Conflicts

http://www.forbes.com/2005/09/28/crawford-fda-vioxx-cx_mh_0928autofacescan03.html

NEW YORK - Lester M. Crawford, who resigned as commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration last Friday, told Forbes.com that he decided to leave the agency because he was tiring after three years at the agency. He denies that financial conflicts of interest had anything to do with his decision to resign.

"I thought it was time for somebody else to do it," Crawford says. "I didn't think it was possible to be very effective anymore."

Crawford's resignation raised eyebrows: While he had been acting commissioner for some time, he was only confirmed as commissioner in July. He became Deputy Commissioner in 2002. Crawford says that, to his knowledge, he did not own any shares of companies that were regulated by the FDA during his tenure as acting commissioner. He says the only thing that came close was his ownership of some paper companies, which he was told became regulated by the agency during his tenure. He promptly sold them.

He says that although his wife's family sold their drug store chain, Walker Drug Company, to a firm that eventually became AmeriSource Bergen (nyse: ABC - news - people ), the giant drug wholesaler, he did not own shares in those companies during his FDA tenure.

Crawford also says he had no interest in Embrex (nasdaq: EMBX - news - people ) during his time as acting FDA commissioner. He had served as a director of the firm, which makes vaccines for birds, and at one point owned as many as 37,000 shares, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. But he says that he sold his interest in Embrex before going to work at the FDA. Additionally, he says, bird vaccines are regulated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, not the FDA.

...more...

[UpInArms]

148. SENATORS ASK FOR PROBE INTO FORMER FDA HEAD'S FINANCES

3:49pm 09/29/05 SENATORS ASK FOR PROBE INTO FORMER FDA HEAD'S FINANCES

3:48pm 09/29/05 SENATORS CALL FOR INVESTIGATION INTO FDA HEAD'S RESIGNATION

[UpInArms]

12. S.Korea slaps taxes on 5 foreign funds after probe (Carlyle Group)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050929:MTFH23154_2005-09-29_10-43-56_SEO139855:1

SEOUL, Sept 29 (Reuters) - South Korea has slapped more than $200 million in taxes on five foreign funds after an investigation, the National Tax Service said on Thursday, a move that could revive concerns about anti-foreign business sentiment.

The action comes at a time when the government is trying to close tax loopholes that critics say allow foreign funds to make huge tax-free profits by buying and selling local firms.

The tax office, which declined to identify any of the funds, said it was still conducting an investigation into tax irregularities at a sixth foreign fund.

"In accordance with our basic policy of applying tax rules indiscriminately to local and foreign capital, we conducted the tax investigation into some foreign funds which were alleged to have avoided taxes after earning big profit at home," the tax agency said in a statement.

<snip>

Recent high-profile deals include the sale of KorAm Bank to Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) by a Carlyle Group-led consortium in 2004 and Newbridge's sale of Korea First Bank to Standard Chartered (STAN.L: Quote, Profile, Research) early this year, resulting in a more than tripling in capital gains.

The National Tax Service has been looking into foreign funds including U.S.-based buyout funds Lone Star and the Carlyle Group since April over possible tax irregularities in relation to their recent Korean transactions, officials have said previously.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Stormy weather allows big oil to practice a crude sort of blackmail

http://villagevoice.com/news/0539,mondo1,68217,6.html

With gas prices pushing ever higher—maybe reaching $5 a gallon, according to some industry experts—oil company profits are going through the roof. As for the hyped shortage of oil, it's a game of smoke and mirrors. No doubt the hurricanes have caused, and will cause, some short-term shortages just by prompting the closing of refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast, which produce nearly a quarter of our gasoline supplies. But before, and even after, Hurricane Katrina, government reports showed a surplus of crude oil in the U.S. marketplace. According to the Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency, prices of crude oil rose even in this surplus situation. Gasoline is another matter. Having been suppressed because of low profit margins, supplies of gasoline actually increased right after Katrina. The situation doubtless will change after Hurricane Rita. Petroleum analyst Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service in Houston told the Associated Press last week that refineries in Houston were different from those in Louisiana because Houston's are all well above sea level and made it through previous big storms. Power outages might put them out of business for as long as a week after past storms, but then they'd be back up and running.

Take a hike

As the price of gas went up and the numbers of dead and distressed people in New Orleans rose, and as Texas worked to evacuate some 2 million or more people in the path of Rita, the right-wing Republicans who control Congress were cutting back three social-welfare programs to help pay for George W. Bush's public relations version of the Marshall Plan.

The Republican Study Committee, made up of 100 members of the House, wants to raise premiums for Medicare, postpone introduction of its drug program, cut Amtrak subsidies, and reduce contributions to the United Nations. While the Senate, in a bipartisan move, sought to win approval for a temporary measure to extend Medicaid coverage to all affected by Katrina, the Bush administration stood by, refusing to commit itself. House conservatives are expected to gut the measure.

Bush's new tax-free zone along the Mississippi Gulf Coast will extend 50 percent tax write-offs to the already profitable casinos. Instead of extending Section 8 vouchers to hurricane homeless so they can rent apartments, Bush wants them to live in trailer parks and on leased cruise ships. The right-wingers were taking up amending the Head Start Bill so as to include faith-based charities. Earlier in the week they broke off to party for the ailing Jesse Helms, who Jerry Falwell said was one of the two greatest men of our times, the other being Ronald Reagan.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Record set for late credit bills

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzcred4446608sep29,0,4471255.story?coll=ny-business-headlines

Credit card delinquencies shot to a record high in the second quarter, as consumers tried to keep up with rising gas prices and increasing interest rates without curtailing spending, a report showed yesterday.

The percentage of credit card accounts that were 30 days or more past due rose to 4.81 percent during the April to June period, up from a revised 4.76 percent in the first quarter, the report from the American Bankers Association found.

"What the delinquencies tell us is that there are more people who are under financial stress," said James Chessen, the association's chief economist. "The rise in energy prices is sucking up much more of households' budgets than they ever did."

There's little hope of a third or fourth quarter decline in credit card delinquencies, experts said, since gasoline and energy prices have continued to rise since June, and consumer spending has not declined significantly. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita may also affect individual credit, particularly in Gulf Coast communities affected by the storms.

"If you're living on the edge, then when the price of gas and heating oil goes up, you end up over the edge," said Bill Cheney, chief economist with John Hancock Financial Services.

Too often, experts said, people don't curb their spending; they just rack up additional debt. Even the increasing gasoline costs themselves often end up on, yes, credit cards.

...more...

[Nickster]

23. Just wait til the credit cards start mandating double the regular minimum

payment. Yikes. We are headed for some very interesting times.

[ozymandius]

39. Times this interesting are a curse. eom

[54anickel]

44. Ozy, did you catch this late entry to yesterday's thread on the consumer

money supply flowing backwards? Interesting take on M-1 and M-2

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=46829



snip>

The chart is astonishing. Daily life is causing depletion of M-1 money supply. M-1 money supply is only $1.35 trillion, or less than 2 months of payment needs. Households now annually withdraw from non-M-1 M-2 for use in supporting M-1 an amount that equals nearly 20% of M-1. Funds in non-M-1 M-2 usually support long-term investing activities; not daily life.

Overall, the chart shows that reducing debt growth will cause some surprisingly big effects. In the past, the consumer had positive cash flow from M-1 as a shock-absorber to cushion lower debt accumulation.

Now, M-1 is reducing non-M-1 M-2 even as the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce debt growth. This money supply flow should cause a larger than normal percentage reduction in investment-related activities.

The remainder of this paper will identify different real estate side effects and determine how they will effect the money supply. We discover that M-1 liquidity will decline first as home equity credit will be the first debt source constrained by Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

After M-1 growth slows, non-M-1 M-2 growth should also decline. Non-M-1 M-2 will suffer attrition as the consumer needs to continue raising liquidity to support M-1. As the competition for non-M-1 M-2 funds becomes more severe, home resales could decline and accelerate the loss of liquidity.

[ozymandius]

48. Yes. I cannot articulate my horror.

This is 180 degrees out of whack. I do not know if the solution can reside entirely in the political/policy realm. But in any case, something's gotta give.

[UpInArms]

15. Flyi to Lay Off 600 Workers, Cut Flights

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/28/AR2005092802170.html

Flyi Inc., parent of financially ailing low-cost carrier Independence Air, said yesterday it will lay off 600 of its 3,400 full-time and part-time employees by late fall as the Dulles-based company cuts flights to five airports and discontinues all service to the West Coast.

Most of the cuts will be at Dulles Airport and at the company's headquarters nearby, said Rick DeLisi, Flyi's spokesman. The carrier has about 2,900 workers in the Dulles area.

Independence Air plans to phase out West Coast service by the end of the year, resulting in layoffs for 600 of the Dulles company's 3,400 workers. (Independence Air)

Employees were informed of the cuts Tuesday, DeLisi said.

"In our current move to reduce our fuel consumption and overall cost of operations, the schedule has been cut and therefore staffing levels will be adjusted to meet the new level of operations," he said.

<snip>

Last winter, Flyi was operating about 600 flights with about 4,700 employees. Since then, the airline has struggled to stay aloft, at first because it failed to sell enough seats and, more recently, because the soaring price of jet fuel has made flights unprofitable.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Finland tops USA in (economic) competitiveness

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2005-09-28-competitive-usat_x.htm

GENEVA (Reuters) — Nordic countries, with Finland in the lead, have some of the world's most competitive economies, despite high taxes and extensive social security systems, according to a study issued on Wednesday.

In the study, the Geneva-based World Economic Forum set the United States second after Finland in its annual competitiveness ranking but recorded growing business concern over the Bush administration's handling of the nation's finances.

Apart from Finland, four other Nordic nations — No. 3 Sweden, No. 4 Denmark, No. 7 Iceland and No. 9 Norway — were among the top 10 in the table issued with the Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2005. The others in the top 10 were No. 5 Taiwan, No. 6 Singapore, No. 8 Switzerland, and No. 10 Australia, up from No. 14 last year.

The study, based on economic data and business opinion surveys in 117 countries, said the north European nations "are challenging the conventional wisdom that high taxes and large safety nets undermine competitiveness."

<snip>

The U.S. ranked 47th out of the 117 countries studied on the health of its economy, echoing, the Forum said, growing international concern about economic imbalances, "especially as regards public finances."

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Ford to Cut Half of Suppliers to Improve Technology

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&refer=news_index&sid=aPTsKsCczDc0

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., the world's third- largest carmaker, will eliminate half its suppliers and sign long- term contracts with the rest to reduce costs and revive profit.

Ford will announce agreements today with Sweden's Autoliv Inc., Delphi Corp., Johnson Controls Inc., Lear Corp., Canada's Magna International Inc., Visteon Corp. and Japan's Yazaki Corp., said Gabriele Gutscher, a spokeswoman for Ford in Cologne, Germany.

Chief Executive William Clay Ford Jr. said in August he would announce ``new initiatives'' by yearend that would go beyond cost- cutting to combat dwindling profits and shrinking sales. Ford's U.S. market share has fallen by 0.6 percentage point to 19.1 percent so far this year.

``This is necessary but not sufficient for Ford to turn itself around,'' said Stephen Cheetham, a London-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, who doesn't rate Ford shares and formerly worked in the carmaker's finance department. ``This is not the first time Ford has tried a new strategy that in the end hasn't worked.''

...more...

[54anickel]

40. Hmmm, wonder which suppliers are getting cut. What's that

"improve technology" mean anyway? Sounds like it's in regards to their purchasing process. :shrug:

The parts plan initially covers $35 billion Ford spends on 20 key parts including seats, tires and bumpers, the Wall Street Journal said earlier, citing an interview with Tony Brown, Ford's senior vice president of global purchasing. The contacts will include Ford, Lincoln and Mercury as well as overseas brands such as Jaguar, Volvo and Mazda, the Journal said.

snip>

Ford already had begun an effort to coordinate its purchasing around the world, using meetings among purchasing officers in different production regions to identify areas where purchasing could be done in common and holding regular talks ``to work more closely with the Delphis and Lears of the world,'' Gutscher said.

Ford's parts plan also comes amid financial difficulties at several suppliers, including former unit Visteon Corp. and Delphi Corp., the world's second-biggest partsmaker.

Visteon, the No. 2 U.S. partsmaker, reached an agreement Sept. 13 to return 23 plants and offices back to an entity managed by Ford to cut costs. The plants will be prepared for sale. Visteon, based in Van Buren, Michigan, hasn't posted an annual profit since being spun off from Ford in 2000.

[UpInArms]

26. Benchmark Treasury turns lower following jobless data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38624.365903125-844348867&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- In a delayed reaction to the latest figures from the Labor Department, Treasury notes and bonds erased early price gains to trade modestly lower. A U.S. government report showed a slump in applications for jobless benefits. The weekly data continue to be skewed in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Rita, limiting their lasting impact on the bond market, analysts said. Still, the latest report did sway trading. The 10-year note was last 1/32 lower at 99 28/32, yielding ($TNX) a little-changed 4.27%. Treasurys were also dented by an upward revision to an inflation reading found within GDP figures released Thursday.

[UpInArms]

80. Check-Kiting Continues: U.S. Treasury Dept to sell $32 bln bills on Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T150250Z_01_WAT004065_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday it will sell $17 billion of three-month bills and $15 billion of six-month bills on Monday, Oct. 3.

The bills will be issued on Thursday, Oct. 6.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund an estimated $32.01 billion publicly held bills maturing Oct. 6 and to pay down about $7 million. Also maturing is an estimated $10 billion of publicly held four-week bills, and Treasury said it would announce the disposition of those securities on Oct. 3.

The three-month bills mature on Jan. 5, while the six-month bills mature on April 6.

Treasury said $4.90 billion of the three-month bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long reporting threshold for the three-month bills is $5.95 billion and for the six-month bills it is $5.25 billion.

...more...


The estimated population of the United States is 297,296,067
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,706.16.

[UpInArms]

27. Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates gets $20,000 salary increase

I guess the world's richest billionaire would need an additional $20K :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B441E0B83-9A95-417B-90EB-35118B467F2A%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) co-founder and Chairman Bill Gates, considered the richest man in the U.S., received a 3% salary increase after his annual performance review, the company reported in a regulatory filing Wednesday.

Gates, whose fortune recently was estimated at $51 billion in Forbes Magazine's compilation of the 400 richest Americans, will see his salary rise to $620,000 this fiscal year, from $600,000 for the year ended June 30.

The $20,000 salary increase is substantially larger than last year's, when his salary rose by $8,333, but smaller than the $40,000 raise he got the year before that, according to the proxy filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Following its performance review process, the software giant also decided to award Gates a $400,000 bonus for this past fiscal year, up from the $310,000 bonus he received the previous year.

Gates also received $2,469 in matching contributions to his 401(k) plan for the year, down from $2,787 the year before, according to the proxy.

Microsoft was equally generous with its chief executive, Steven Ballmer, who will receive the same $620,000 salary as the company's chairman.

Ballmer has received an identical salary and bonus to those of Gates for at least the past three fiscal years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. HCA says SEC probe of stock trading now formal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38624.378509537-844351928&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- HCA Inc. (HCA) said Thursday that the Securities and Exchange Commission has made formal its investigation of trading in the company's stock. The Nashville, Tenn., hospital operator plans to fully cooperate in the matter. On Sept. 23, the company announced its receipt of a subpeona from the U.S. Attorney's Office related to the sale of its stock by Senator William Frist. The stock closed Wednesday at $47.94, up a quarter.

http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/int-basic.chart?siteid=mktw&symb=HCA&sid=177886&time=8&startdate=&enddate=&freq=1&comp=&compidx=&uf=&ma=&maval=&type=2&size=1&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&style=1013&mocktick=1&rand=804928004&siteid=mktw

Here's a link to the insider trading activities

http://www.secinfo.com/$/SEC/Filings.asp?MKTW=NYSE%3AHCA&Page=3

Isn't it amazing that Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn) intuitively knew when to sell - considering that his brother chose that exact moment to sell his stock?

[UpInArms]

29. pre-opening blather

9:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures trade points towards a flattish open for the cash market, as traders juggle some positive corporate news and unphasing economic data with still-rising energy prices... Separately, since Friday marks the last trading day of the third quarter, window dressing may provide the equity market with a boost these next two days as money managers make last minute adjustments to their portfolios...

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. The final read on Q2 GDP rose to 3.3%, matching economists' expectations as well as the Q1 read. The accompanying chain deflator - a key measure on inflation - checked in higher than expected at 2.6% (consensus 2.4%)... Initial claims, meanwhile, fell 76K to 356K (consensus 420K). Neither report is expected to hold much influence over the market, however, as the GDP data is essentially "old news" while claims figures are a moving target these days given the impact of Katrina...

8:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Stocks are set to open slightly highter today, with an upbeat earnings report and heightened guidance from PepsiCo. (PEP), as well as E*Trade's (ET) reported $1.6 bln acquisition of JP Morgan's Brown Co., perhaps helping sentiment and ofsetting rising crude's ($66.64/bbl) effect... Traders may be waiting for upcoming economic data, though, to set a more definitive tone... Last week's jobless report (consensus 420K) and the final read on Q2 GDP (consensus 3.3%) are both due out at the bottom of the hour...

[UpInArms]

36. wheels spinning

Dow 10,470.62 -2.47 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,115.46 +0.06 (+0.00%)
S&P 500 1,215.83 -1.06 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289 +0.27 (+0.63%)

NYSE Volume 44,624,000
Nasdaq Volume 42,139,000

[UpInArms]

43. 9:45 EST reddish in color

Dow 10,450.63 -22.46 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,111.27 -4.13 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,213.95 -2.94 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.255 -0.07 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 138,752,000
Nasdaq Volume 123,946,00

edited to add blather:

9:45AM: The market opened in mixed fashion, just as futures trading had foreshadowed, but have since inched below the flat line...A positive earnings report from Pepsi (PEP 57.02 +0.96) - the company beat EPS expectations by a nickel - and accompanying upside guidance for FY05, teams with Red Hat's (RHAT 19.73 +3.22) $0.02 ahead-of-consensus EPS, raised guidance and E*Trade's (ET 16.85 +0.52) $1.6 bln acquisition of JP Morgan's (JPM 33.75 -0.17) Brown Co. to form an upbeat corporate front...

However, crude's 0.8% uptick (to $66.85/bbl) and a report yesterday that credit card delinquencies reached record levels in Q2, which could restrain consumer spending in the months ahead, have taken what little steam existed in pre-market trading...

[UpInArms]

41. Gold rises to $475.20 oz

9:41am 09/29/05 DEC GOLD RISES ABOVE $475/OZ FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK

9:41am 09/29/05 DEC GOLD CLIMBS $2.10 TO $475.20/OZ IN MORNING NY TRADE

[JNelson6563]

42. Well, well, well, gold's going up (again)

If that doesn't set off the red flags for the sools buying spin put out by the likes of CNBC I don't know what will.

Julie

[54anickel]

45. Whoa baby cakes! That was quick - spiked at the same time as the buck

:wtf: is THAT about? Fed just drop one of those balls?

[UpInArms]

49. I think that they have too many balls in the air these days

and they are losing control of several of them:

Crude Oil Spiking
Gold Value Spiking
Dollar Value (really really iffy)
Stock Market (PPT running on empty)
Consumer Spending (dicey at best)
Housing Bubble (about to pop)
Interest Rates (permanent conundrum)

[AnneD]

66. Naahh

I'd say some 'leaders' in the ecomonic realm don't have enough balls in the air or otherwise....but hey, that's just MHO.

[UpInArms]

121. Gold closes at $475.80 oz up $2.70 for the day

1:51pm 09/29/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $475.80/OZ, UP $2.70, OR 0.6%

[54anickel]

129. Gold taps $477 to trade at week high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA397FBD5-0813-4698-8567-1E7ADB6D8E3F%7D&siteid=google

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed as high as $477 an ounce Thursday to mark their loftiest level in a week as traders continued to eye developments in the energy and currency markets.

"The brief period of selling is behind us, and the precious metals, with a little help from the dollar, are ready for blastoff," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

Gold for December delivery climbed $1.40 to trade recently at $474.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gains following a nearly $7 climb in prices Wednesday.

All in all, "gold is going through a churning process to correct the over-bought condition," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

"Spillover from energy concerns also playing a role," he said, adding that "buyers should be watching rather than following the momentum speculators attempting to get into a market they missed."

more...

[UpInArms]

46. 10:01 EST blood all over the floor

Dow 10,434.31 -38.78 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,107.80 -7.60 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,213.05 -3.84 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.297 +0.35 (+0.82%)

NYSE Volume 253,716,000
Nasdaq Volume 230,203,000

adding blather on edit:

10:00AM: A lack of leadership pushes the major averages lower, as eight of the ten economic sectors are trading below the flat line... Telecom Services (-0.7%) is the leading laggard, likely on account of consolidation taking following yesterday's leading 1.1% gain, but respective 0.4% and 0.5% declines in Tech and Healthcare currently serve as the weightiest impediments...

The Financial sector (+0.01%), meanwhile, vacillates around the flat line, and its lack of early participation does not help the indices. Consumer Staples, up a modest 0.1% almost entirely due to PepsiCo.'s (PEP 56.70 +1.64) 3% surge, is the only sector aside from Energy (+0.3%) to offer early gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 1030/1520, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 845/141

[54anickel]

52. The Hedge Fund Report: Banks in Uncharted Waters

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/emmatrincal/10241659.html

Not every academic is treated well by hedge fund managers. But when Andrew Lo, who is both a finance professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a quantitative manager for AlphaSimplex Group, writes a research paper, the industry takes notice.

In an article titled "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," Lo sounds an alarm over the "symbiotic relationship" between hedge funds and banks. He says that the risk exposure of the hedge fund industry may have a material impact on the banking sector.

As Long-Term Capital Management illustrated, hedge funds are exposed to two main risks: illiquidity and leverage. With banks becoming more and more dependent on hedge funds as sources of banking and brokerage fees, their exposure to the same problem is "currently on the rise," Lo says.

Citing a 2003 analysis of more than 100 liquidated hedge funds, Lo says that half were the result of operational risk, including fraud. Common operational issues included the misrepresentation of fund investments (41% of the cases), misappropriation of investor funds (30%), unauthorized trading (14%) and inadequate resources (6% of the sample.)

more...

[UpInArms]

56. See the collapse of Orange County for the charting of those

waters. I think that instead of being in "uncharted waters", they have jumped off into the deep end.

[54anickel]

57. Bayou Chief Is Expected to Turn Himself In

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/29/business/29hedge.html

Samuel Israel III, the founder and chief executive of the Bayou Group, the Connecticut hedge fund that seemingly disappeared overnight in what federal prosecutors have described as a $300 million fraud, is expected to surrender to federal authorities today, a law enforcement official who has been briefed on the case said last night.

The fund's chief financial officer, Daniel E. Marino, also is expected to surrender.

Both men are expected to enter guilty pleas to fraud charges in federal court as soon as this week.

Their surrender will cap the extraordinary rise and fall of Bayou, a Stamford-based hedge fund that at one point claimed to have more than $400 million under management.

more...

Was a deal struck?

[saigon68]

58. A DEAL WAS STRUCK

THE STENCH IS FAR AND WIDE

[UpInArms]

62. (Here's the Deal) Bayou and the Bush Cousin

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/matthewgoldstein/10243545.html

A first cousin of President Bush is emerging as a peripheral player in the increasingly bizarre Bayou Management hedge fund scandal.

Sources say John P. Ellis, a former journalist turned investment banker, represented several companies in investment presentations to IM Partners, a side venture set up by Samuel Israel and Daniel Marino. Israel and Marino were the management team that ran Bayou and who federal prosecutors allege defrauded investors out of $300 million.

People familiar with the Bayou saga say Ellis, a personal friend of Israel for the past several years, helped arranged at least five investment deals for IM Partners while working as a managing director for GH Venture Partners, a New York City-based investment bank. In all, IM Partners, a Connecticut-based investment partnership, invested at least $25 million in deals handled by GH Venture.

There's no indication that Ellis or GH Ventures were direct or indirect investors in either Bayou or IM Partners. And, other than their common principals, there's no direct evidence that any relationship existed between IM Partners and Bayou, although both operated out of the same Stamford, Conn., office.

A former columnist for the Boston Globe, Ellis may be best known for his work as an electoral consultant for Fox News during the 2000 presidential election. It was Ellis' analysis of the Florida vote total that led Fox to declare Bush the victor before any of the other networks.

...more...

Now that is one steaming pile!

[54anickel]

68. Suppose we'll see that name on the next list of pardons? Seems

every where you turn these days there is a member of the BFEE.

[loudsue]

98. HUH?? No relationship???

"there's no direct evidence that any relationship existed between IM Partners and Bayou, although both operated out of the same Stamford, Conn., office."

:argh: Give me a break!!! :nuke:

[UpInArms]

103. Oh, loudsue, you are so picky!

You weren't supposed to notice that little itty bitty almost a footnote but had to be put in the article statement!

:toast:

[loudsue]

118. LOL! I guess to the "trained eye" it wasn't so itty bitty!

We just get to see so much bullshit dotting the pasture that is our country, that I've learned to smell it and see it before I step in it!

:kick::kick::kick:

[saigon68]

102. Good Work !!!!!

[MaineDem]

71. Bayou's Israel, Marino to Plead Guilty, Person Says (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a2yKBWU9hpTs&refer=us

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bayou Group founder Samuel Israel III and Chief Financial Officer Daniel Marino plan to plead guilty to fraud charges from an investigation of their hedge fund, a person familiar with their case said.

Bayou, a Stamford, Connecticut-based hedge fund with more than $300 million of assets, collapsed in July, prompting an investigation by the FBI. Earlier this month, the U.S. Attorney's Office in New York claimed in a civil lawsuit that the fund lied about investment profits and created a sham accounting firm to certify false financial statements.

The case has prompted state regulators, including Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, to call for stricter oversight of an industry whose assets have doubled to more than $1 trillion in the past five years. Bayou is the biggest hedge fund to come under scrutiny for missing funds since 2000, when money manager Michael Berger was accused of hiding $400 million of losses over four years.

``It's a huge business, and frauds are rare, but they are going to happen,'' said Colin Mclean, who invests part of Edinburgh-based SVM Asset Management's $1.8 billion in hedge funds. ``It's something we'll have to watch out for.''

[54anickel]

73. "Frauds are rare"? Bwahahaha - that should start with "uncovering"!

[UpInArms]

120. Bayou CEO pleads guilty to fraud, conspiracy

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T172629Z_01_N29129402_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BAYOU-CEO.XML

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y., Sept 29 (Reuters) - The founder and chief executive of Bayou Group, Samuel Israel, pleaded guilty on Thursday to one count of conspiracy and two counts of fraud stemming from the collapse of the Connecticut hedge fund.

Earlier, Bayou's Chief Financial Officer Daniel Marino also entered guilty pleas associated with the fraud at Bayou.

Israel faces a maximum of 30 years in prison on all three charges as well as hundreds of millions of dollars in restitution and fines.

That was quick!

[54anickel]

131. Attempt to fly in under the radar before the dots to BFEE are connected?

Turned themselves in, nothing to see here, justice will be served, move along now.

[UpInArms]

132. was it an order?

Plead guilty now - get pardoned later - or ??? (become Boulis/Aronowed)

[54anickel]

134. Heh-heh, such a choice. Can hear him now, "Well, since you put it

THAT way"....

[Maeve]

65. 10 o'clock bounce right on time

Dow 10,464.89 -8.20 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,116.24 +0.84 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,216.46 -0.43 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 42.85 +0.23 (+0.54%)

BTW, love the first line of the blather...
"10:00AM: A lack of leadership pushes the major averages lower..."

Kinda sums up this misAdministration, don't it?

[UpInArms]

70. blather - lacking leadership - choosing spin

10:35AM: The three major indices move off of their recently-hit lows, but remain in the red as sector standing is unchanged. Crude continues to gain, up 1% and sporting a $66.99/bbl pricetag, and occupies the session's spotlight...

With respect to the economic calendar, the morning's data was essentially overlooked by the market. While the in-line final Q2 GDP read (+3.3%) was pre-Katrina and old news, new claims for unemployment plunged 79,000 to 356,000 and further reveal that the high Katrina-induced levels of claims the past three weeks have not been as bad as feared. Separately, since about 60,000 of those claims were Katrina related, the underlying 296,000 reflects a strong national job market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1141/1699, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 964/1569

[54anickel]

77. I cannot begin to imagine what it would be like to be one of the "victims"

of the hurricanes, BUT how many were evacuated out of state, or to Houston to be evacuated yet again? How many may have lived in a devestated area but worked for a company that may not have officially shut down? Could my employer claimed I "quit" because I was forced to leave? How easy would it be for me to even put in a claim for UE at this time? How high would it be on my list of priorities if I wasn't making much to begin with? Where would they send me my check? How could I meet the requirement of applying for 2 jobs a week? How is the UE game played after a natrual disaster anyway? So many questions....

I'm thinking all this happy talk of claims being low may be a bit premature, but I don't know for sure. I've never been through anything like what they are going through. :shrug:

[AnneD]

111. If we follow Maslow hiearchy of needs....

filing unemployment is level 2. Most of these folks are still at food clothing shelter and finding family level. Some are at the 'I ain't going back' stage and are too busy looking for work to file. If they don't find work soon, they'll file. As soon as funds are tapped out, look for more claims.

[54anickel]

115. Thanks AnneD, that's sort of what I was figuring, but really I have no

idea of what they must be going through.

[UpInArms]

67. Liars and Crooks Dept: Spitzer says Seligman execs OK'd abusive trading

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T143249Z_01_N29101272_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-SPITZER-SELIGMAN-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Executives at J&W Seligman & Co., including the money management firm's president, approved at least a dozen secret deals allowing abusive trading in its mutual funds, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said on Thursday.

In a court filing on Wednesday, Spitzer cited previously undisclosed evidence of market timing at Seligman and asked a state court to order the company to provide additional information relating to abusive trading practices at the firm.

"While the company has acknowledged allowing some improper market timing, the full extent of the problem at Seligman has not been disclosed to investors," Spitzer said in a statement.

<snip>

The attorney general's office said in a statement on Thursday that the secret deals were approved by Seligman's senior management, including on at least one occasion the firm's current president.

<snip>

Seligman's mutual funds may have suffered up to $80 million in damages from market timing transactions that were sanctioned or tolerated by senior management, the office said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. When connected turns into corrupted

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-scheer27sep27,0,5132888.column?coll=la-news-comment-opinions

CRONY CAPITALISM is the name of the Republican game. Their slogan is "take care of your friends and leave the risks of the free market for the suckers." That would be John Q. Public.

From Halliburton's overcharging in Iraq to Enron's manipulation of the California energy crisis and now the emerging hurricane reconstruction boondoggle, we witness what happens when the federal government is turned into a glorified help desk and ATM machine for politically connected corporations.

<snip>

Flanigan's statement was in response to scathing criticism from Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee — which is considering his nomination — that he had not been sufficiently responsive in his testimony. Records and interviews show that Flanigan supervised Abramoff's successful efforts two years ago to lobby Congress to kill the legislation, which would have penalized companies such as Bermuda-based Tyco that avoid taxes by moving offshore. Abramoff's firm was paid $1.7 million by Tyco in 2003 and 2004.

In his statement, Flanigan said Abramoff also boasted of his ties to Tom DeLay, the House majority leader. DeLay once described Abramoff as "one of my closest and dearest friends" and accompanied him on several foreign junkets. DeLay denies that the Abramoff-arranged trips were political favors. DeLay continues to be tangled in myriad ethics investigations, many of them linked to his relationship with Abramoff.

<snip>

Before Safavian resigned, he reportedly was working on contracting policies for Hurricane Katrina recovery efforts. Don't expect the GOP Congress to look askance at this. Safavian's wife is chief counsel for oversight and investigations on the House Government Reform Committee, which oversees procurement matters, although she's said she'll recuse herself.

The hurricane season is proving to be a windfall for GOP-connected companies such as Halliburton, which are being rewarded with lucrative contracts despite their shoddy performance in Iraq. In the vocabulary of crony capitalism, the word "shame" does not exist.

...more...

[54anickel]

79. Poor Delay - it's really hard to see your actions as unethical when

you and your party possess absolutely no ethics or morals to begin with. To Delay and his ilk this is just business as usual. In their circles his type of behavior is praised. Just look at the WH and Republican comments on what a fantabulous job he's been doing.

http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2005/9/28/152753/291

Bush has confidence:

THE PRESIDENT: I have confidence in Tom DeLay's leadership, and I have confidence in Tom DeLay. And I am -- we've worked closely with Tom DeLay and the leaders in the House to get a lot done during the last four years, and I'm looking forward to working with him to get a lot done during the next four years
Strongly as he ever has:


Q But how strongly is the President supporting him at this time in which he's embattled in this ethics dispute?
MR. McCLELLAN: As strongly as he ever has, which is strongly.

Tom's a friend:


MR. McCLELLAN: I think you've heard from the President, what he has said on the matter, that Majority Leader DeLay is someone the President considers a friend, and he is someone that he has worked closely with to get things done in Washington.
Tom delivers:


Tom DeLay can deliver the vote. (Applause.)

[UpInArms]

81. Pictures! We have Pictures!

[ozymandius]

75. lacking bounce appeal

10:56
Dow 10,447.44 -25.65 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,114.09 -1.31 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,214.27 -2.62 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 42.94 +0.32 (+0.75%)
NYSE Volume 567,736,000
Nasdaq Volume 494,314,000

10:35AM: The three major indices move off of their recently-hit lows, but remain in the red as sector standing is unchanged. Crude continues to gain, up 1% and sporting a $66.99/bbl pricetag, and occupies the session's spotlight...

With respect to the economic calendar, the morning's data was essentially overlooked by the market. While the in-line final Q2 GDP read (+3.3%) was pre-Katrina and old news, new claims for unemployment plunged 79,000 to 356,000 and further reveal that the high Katrina-induced levels of claims the past three weeks have not been as bad as feared. Separately, since about 60,000 of those claims were Katrina related, the underlying 296,000 reflects a strong national job market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1141/1699, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 964/1569

[UpInArms]

78. 11:08 EST - Whoopsie!

Dow 10,423.96 -49.13 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,111.04 -4.36 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,212.37 -4.52 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.293 +0.31 (+0.73%)

NYSE Volume 633,701,000
Nasdaq Volume 545,778,000

adding blather on edit:

11:00AM: The averages continue to trade on negative turf, carving new lows after a report that showed natural gas inventory rose a less than expected 53 bcf to 2885 bcf, vs. analysts' estimated 68 bcf rise. Following the all-time high $14.15/mln BTUs the commodity hit yesterday, the report further fans energy supply fears. The Energy sector, however, has pared its morning gain - now down 0.1% as its bellwethers trade in flat fashion and ExxonMobil (XOM 64.40 -0.30) declines 0.5%... To that end, each sector now sits below the unchanged mark.NYSE Adv/Dec 1336/1577, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1187/1451

[UpInArms]

76. Bush's Presidency Is Exposed, Crumbling

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=carlson&sid=aLjNa_Hbpbd4

excerpt:

Oh what a difference a hurricane makes. Katrina exposed something we couldn't know before: Bush's claim that he would keep us safer than that wishy-washy senator from squishy Massachusetts is false. Not only are we not safer than we were before Bush took office, we're worse off.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, as its Katrina response made tragically clear, is a mess. The Department of Homeland Security, which Bush built from scratch, is mainly known for a color chart, wasteful spending, a mixed bag of airport screeners and a new chief who didn't know the New Orleans Superdome was filled with starving, homeless hurricane victims.

<snip>

The White House press, which laughed at Bush's video, has been rightly chastised for turning out pool reports on what the president is wearing, eating or chopping. Now they're pounding away at his multiple fuel-squandering trips to hurricane-stricken regions where he can repair little but himself.

A pool report on Sept. 26, the day Bush discovered energy conservation and suggested we all forgo non-essential driving, detailed the gas-sucking trip he took that evening to dinner five blocks away from the White House, commandeering five sport- utility vehicles, four vans and two limousines that kept their motors running for the duration of the meal.

...more - well worth reading every word...

[54anickel]

83. Nice! Very nice...I like how she takes one of the Repukes biggest

digs on Carter (whom I love and admire, by the way) and turns it on Shrub in the last paragraph. Although I'd prefer to remind the little Dim-Son of that other earlier, "I'm not a crook" chief executive.

[UpInArms]

86. ...

[54anickel]

89. My eyes! My eyes! The dollar bills in my wallet a cringing at that

image! They know damned well I've been eyeing them up for kindling this winter!!!

The one that closed the gold window shaking hands with the one that will bring an end to the Petro-dollar.

[UpInArms]

82. Freddie Mac chief sees U.S. housing prices slowing

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T152909Z_01_N2987078_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HOUSING.XML

BOSTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. housing prices, which jumped dramatically in August, will likely fall off soon and even a small decline may affect the U.S. economy, Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Richard Syron said on Thursday.

Prices for existing homes surged 15.8 percent in August from a year ago, marking the strongest jump in more than 26 years, but Syron said that trend cannot be sustained.

"I think that pace will start to attenuate in 2006," Syron said at a meeting sponsored by the Boston College Chief Executives Club, adding that "any leveling off in the housing sector will have an impact on the economy. He also said a correction is often a "healthy thing."

Syron, a trained economist who worked at the U.S. Central Bank before moving to the second-biggest U.S. housing finance company, said people will become more cautious about buying new cars and other big-ticket items once they notice their homes are not appreciating as rapidly, on paper, as they did before.

"Even a modest downturn in housing would be felt throughout the economy -- from construction jobs to the banking and real estate professions, to such big related employers as Home Depot (HD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Lowe's (LOW.N: Quote, Profile, Research)," Syron said.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

85. Get the safety glasses out!

Lest someone put an eye out looking at those graphs tracking today's market action.

It seems like it's getting more and more challenging to spin things positively. I have every confidence the PPT will step in and make sure the day ends at least "flat" so that the curtain remains at least another day in front of the crumbling, mold covered mess that is the GOP.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,430.97 -42.12 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,114.10 -1.30 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,213.26 -3.63 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.24% -0.02

11:34 and things look a bit dark.

Julie

[UpInArms]

87. 11:51 EST markets applaud new corporatist Chief Justice

Dow 10,474.85 +1.76 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,120.67 +5.27 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,217.18 +0.29 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.238 -0.24 (-0.56%)

NYSE Volume 830,133,000
Nasdaq Volume 712,926,000

[punpirate]

90. Either that...

... or there's some serious pump-priming going on.... :shrug:

[54anickel]

91. Japan Central Bank Chief Hints at Upcoming Change in Monetary Policy

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050929/japan_central_bank.html?.v=1

snip>

"But on the basis of the outlook for the economy ... it is increasingly possible" that the BOJ may end this policy "toward fiscal 2006," Fukui was quoted as telling business leaders in Osaka by Dow Jones Newswires.

Later in the day, Fukui said he won't rule out a shift before fiscal 2006.

"'Toward fiscal 2006,' as I said earlier, doesn't exclude a policy shift by March," Fukui said in a news conference in Osaka.

snip>

"Even if we return to an interest rate policy, we need to change monetary policy in a seamless way," he said.

Outside of interest rates, the central bank controls monetary policy through the the amount of extra cash it keeps in the banking system.

more...

Will we see a drop in Yenetics in Q4 2005 and Q1 2006?

[antigop]

92. Counting on mountain of debt -- from wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB112794784818255155-h_HP_rQ4skTHpF_aPmo35Axvzxk_20060928,00.html?mod=blogs

>>
The U.S., a creditor country just 20 years ago, now owes the rest of the world $2.5 trillion (if you net out U.S.-owned assets abroad with foreign-owned assets in the U.S.). The U.S. this year will borrow from abroad a sum equal to 6% of its output of goods and services, more than in any year in the past 135 for which data are available.

It will do so without obvious difficulty or disruption to the global economy. Still, hardly any reputable economist, finance minister or central banker thinks the U.S. can continue indefinitely to borrow more and more. "While this benign situation could persist for some time, it will not continue forever; and finding out just when it might end is an experiment best not undertaken," the International Monetary Fund said delicately the other day.

>>

[54anickel]

104. What a crock, and there's that Mankiw idiot again!!!

snip>

...Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who recently ended a stint as chief White House economist, predicts, "This will work out relatively benignly." Still, he adds, U.S. reliance on the savings of foreigners portends a "less prosperous future" for the U.S. Either foreigners will decide to keep more of their money, and force the U.S. to curtail the investing needed to spur future growth, or they will keep lending to the U.S., and claim an ever-greater share of future U.S. profits.

snip to St. Ronnie crock>

...In the late 1980s, U.S. borrowing from abroad soared as U.S. economic growth outpaced growth overseas, a strong dollar made imports inexpensive and budget deficits widened. Then the dollar plummeted, the stock market crashed and recession curbed U.S. appetites for imports.

As Barclays Capital chief economist Laurence Kantor reminds me, only the unforeseen reunification of Germany prevented a deeper global recession; it prodded the German government into uncharacteristically stimulative fiscal policy.

Oh yeah WSJ, let's just overlook the finagling of the Plaza and Louvre Accords - it was all based on supply/demand, US powerful growth and free-markets. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

108. Mankiw is so lame that I'm surprised he can walk upright

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={34dfb427-119c-4932-ad0c-374b44d830e0}&siteid=mktw&dist=SignInArchive&archive=true¶m=archive&garden=&minisite=

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

excerpt:

President Bush's top economic adviser, Greg Mankiw, set off a frenzied debate when he wrote that outsourcing is merely a new form of trade. Bush and other politicians of both parties distanced themselves from the tone of Mankiw's remarks, but not necessarily from the content.

Democratic challenger John Kerry branded companies that outsource jobs overseas as "Benedict Arnolds," after the American general who turned into a British redcoat during the Revolutionary War. Kerry has proposed closing tax loopholes that give U.S. corporations incentives to move jobs overseas.

The Kerry campaign stepped up its criticism Tuesday of the Bush administration's "secret plan to send more American jobs overseas" after Treasury Secretary John Snow was quoted as saying, "you can outsource a lot of activities and get them done just as well at a lower cost."

...more...

[UpInArms]

93. Laff for the Day: Military Recruiting fails because of improving economy!

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=31867

excerpt:

Army Education Plus is the service’s latest effort to shore up its lagging recruiting program, which has suffered from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and what the recruiters say is an improving national economic picture, Smith said.

Despite improvements in recruiting over the summer months, senior Army leaders have said that when the government’s fiscal 2005 ends on Friday, all three components of the Army will have missed their annual recruiting goals.

To counter the reluctance of young Americans to put on Army green, the service has taken a number of steps, such as adding 1,200 new recruiters to its rosters, increasing signing bonuses from an average of $6,000 per new recruit to as much as $20,000, and raising the eligible age for the Army National Guard or the Reserve recruits from 35 to 39.

The service also launched a multimillion-dollar television advertising campaign that focuses on patriotism and is directed at deployment-wary parents and teachers.

...more...

[ozymandius]

97. My car uses a lot less gas since the tires fell off. n/t

[54anickel]

113. Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery

Oh yeah, gotta make sure they have the skills required to scavenge and rigg up their own armoured personnel carriers and all. :-(

[ozymandius]

94. lunchtime check-in

12:12
Dow 10,477.54 +4.45 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,124.09 +8.69 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1,218.45 +1.56 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 42.89 +0.27 (+0.63%)
NYSE Volume 936,697,000
Nasdaq Volume 809,128,000

[UpInArms]

95. side o' blather

12:10PM: Submerged over the course of the morning, the stock market has risen - modestly - from a tight trading range, as crude hits its lowest point of the day (-$0.55 $65.80/bbl) and as natural gas losses $0.06 (14.04/ mln/btu). Traders' remain fixated on price action across the energy complex, attention that has little reason for divergence today. While the earnings calendar has served up a few positive reports, and while early economic data triggered no surprises, both fronts have been relatively insignificant today and are unable to counter continued energy supply concerns and the parallel relentless rises in energy prices... Providing the bulk of early leadership has been Financial, as relative strength in brokers (+0.9%) - for which surging E*Trade (ET) shares is largely responsible - has helped limit the effects of weakness in banks, insurers, and REITs, to name a few. For its part, E*Trade has attracted buying interest upon reports that the online broker will acquire JP Morgan's (JPM) Brown Co. for $1.6 bln...

Technology has also been an influential leader to the upside, as gains in semiconductor, hardware and software offset consolidation in the networking group, while Consumer Discretionary has benefited from a recovery in homebuilders (+1.0%), bolstered by a series of analysts' upgrades within the space... The Consumer Staples sector has also recently regained positive footing, drawing momentum from a 3.1% surge in shares of PepsiCo. (PEP 56.76 +1.70) that follows the company's better than expected earnings report (EPS of $0.78 vs. $0.73 consensus) and heightened FY05 guidance (EPS of $2.64-2.65 vs. $2.61 consensus)...

Telecom Services, however, has paced the way lower, but its 3.2% weighting on the S&P has had minimal impact on the overall market. Energy, amid falling oil prices, as well as Health Care and Industrials, have also lost ground... With respect to the economic data delivered today, the final Q2 GDP read checked in at 3.3% - matching economists' expectations as well as the Q1 read; the deflator, meanwhile, came in at 2.6% (consensus 2.4%)... Katrina-induced jobless claims came in at 356K, falling 76K (consensus 420K)... Neither report generated much excitement, however, as the GDP data was essentially "old news", and because post hurricane initial claims have been a moving target over the past few weeks...DJTA +0.61, DJUA +0.71, DOT +0.17, Nasdaq 100 +0.53, Russell 2000 -0.07, SOX +0.85, S&P Midcap 400 +0.37, XOI -0.20, NYSE Adv/Dec 1436/1631, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1208/1585

[54anickel]

96. India hit badly by striking workers

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-09/29/content_3563988.htm

NEW DELHI, Sept. 29 (Xinhua) -- Thursday was a day of chaos in India as thousands of workers across the country observed one-day strike in protest against government's economic reforms.

The nation-wide strike call was given by communists-backed trade unions and federations in the country. Interestingly, four of the major communist parties of India are lending outside support to the 16-month old Congress-led coalition government in New Delhi.

Eastern Indian state of West Bengal, where communists are in ruling for the past 28 years was the worst hit region as no flightcould either take off or arrive at capital city Kolkata's Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose international airport, though an Indian Airlines flight from Delhi arrived at the airport at 10:15 a.m. (local time), news agency Indo-Asian News Service reported Thursday.

snip>

Financial services across the country were hit as nearly one million public sector bank employees went on a nation-wide strike to protest the proposals to privatize state-run banks.

The strike crippled all banking transactions, including clearance of cheques across the country.

more...

[54anickel]

116. Strike stalls work at airports, banks; Normal life crippled in WB

http://www.newindpress.com/Newsitems.asp?ID=IEH20050929101324&Title=Top+Stories&Topic=0

snip>

Meanwhile, the Central trade unions, which sponsored the strike, threatened to intensify their stir if UPA does not change its anti-labour policies.

Disputing Chidambaram’s statement that the impact of the strike was “marginal”, the trade unions - CITU, AITUC, AICCTU, HMS and TUCC - asserted that the strike was “massive success”.

“I have not seen such a widespread strike throughout the country before. If the government does not yield to our demands, there will be larger strike and for longer duration,” Gurudas Dasgupta of AITUC said at a joint press conference.

Criticising the UPA for following previous NDA policies with greater vigour without safeguarding interest of workers, he said, “Let the government read the writing on the wall and change the policies. Otherwise, country will be in peril.”

more...

[UpInArms]

109. 12:46 EST mixed with some blather

Dow 10,471.35 -1.74 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,122.09 +6.69 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,217.94 +1.05 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294 +0.32 (+0.75%)

NYSE Volume 1,047,545,000
Nasdaq Volume 897,969,000

12:30PM: The indices hang around the unchanged mark, with little occuring to sustain the slight midday boost... The Treasury market, meanwhile, continues to suffer today. The benchmark 10-year note is presently off nine ticks, yielding 4.29%, while the 30-year note, down 19 ticks, offeres investors 4.54%. While the equity market basically overlooked today's economic releases, the bond market took the opposite course - sliding early on the initial jobless claims report, which, although suspect, showed an improvement, while the GDP revision came in as expected...NYSE Adv/Dec 1664/1456, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1366/1457

[ozymandius]

110. numbers

12:50
Dow 10,468.55 -4.54 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,122.08 +6.68 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,217.85 +0.96 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 42.94 +0.32 (+0.75%)
NYSE Volume 1,055,887,000
Nasdaq Volume 903,335,000

[54anickel]

114. Mutual fund company's attempt to pre-empt Spitzer probe fails

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--mutualfunds-spitz0929sep29,0,492318.story?coll=ny-region-apnewyork

ALBANY, N.Y. -- A family of mutual funds that voluntarily settled with investors after revealing a few instances of improper market-timing trades to stave off regulators is being targeted after all by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer.

Spitzer claims the secret trading at J. & W. Seligman & Co. of New York City that favored insiders was much more pervasive. Seligman's compensated investors with $2 million and reduced its management fee, costing the company $4 million. But Spitzer said the compensation to investors should be $80 million.

The civil suit filed in state Supreme Court in Manhattan late Wednesday is a twist in Spitzer's continuing investigation in conflicts of interests and timed trading that can give an advantage to insiders over other investors.

Seligman's voluntary acknowledgment of some market-timing cases is apparently the first time a mutual fund sought to pre-empt Spitzer. Earlier this month, Seligman complained Spitzer's subsequent subpoenas were pressure tactics to reduce its management fees which the company argued is the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to the industry news service, MarketWatch.

more...

[54anickel]

117. Former Illinois Governor's Trial Begins

Couldn't ask for better timing, another Repuke makes the headlines

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/28/AR2005092802269.html

snip>

Ryan, best known as the Republican governor who lost faith in capital punishment and commuted the death sentences of 167 inmates in 2003, contends he is "absolutely not guilty." Between speeches to cheering anti-death-penalty audiences, he publicly protests his innocence, saying the government cannot prove he profited.

"The state of Illinois didn't get cheated out of anything," defense attorney Dan Webb told the jury. "Providing benefits to supporters is part of politics and is not a crime."

Webb, who likened Ryan's favors to the presidential practice of awarding ambassadorships to fundraisers and friends, chose not to address some of the most potentially damning evidence. He focused his fire on several contract deals and the credibility of the government's principal witness, former Ryan chief of staff Scott Fawell.

At a time when Illinois Republicans are reeling, the long-awaited trial is not just the final reckoning for the 71-year-old Ryan, who spent more than 30 years in public office. It is also the highest-profile public corruption trial overseen by U.S. Attorney Patrick J. Fitzgerald, who has targeted state and local corruption with a string of indictments.

more...

[54anickel]

119. Petro-Canada & Its Stocks (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie092905.html

snip>

THE CANADIAN DOLLAR
The Canadian Dollar has gradually established itself as a petro currency. With the Iranian Oil Exchange, and significant Russian oil production, the euro is absolutely certain to make a strong challenge to establish itself as a second leading petro currency. The Canadian intrusion occurs under the USDollar shadow within North America, where truly enormous trade occurs. Given little recognition, which is changing, the Can$ is the strongest currency in the world in recent years.

The fundamental reasons behind the new resurgence in Canada are many. Details are provided in the October Hat Trick Letter issue. This analyst here is sick to death of hearing pissy spin propaganda against Canada by ignorant Americans who probably have never visited Canada, nor anywhere else outside the nation, for that matter. Their experience is limited to quick views across Niagara Falls. Canada is slammed typically by shallow criticism of "socialist quagmire" without benefit of knowledge. Sure, they have national health care and higher personal taxes. The nation decided long ago not to run debts paid by Asians, which have the harsh consequence of turning ownership of national assets to the Asians in a gradual "measured pace." The United States is a nation up for sale, denuded of its wealth amidst sickening bankruptcy and hemorrhaged trade gaps. Our economic think tank of counselors is shockingly incompetent. We Americans are quick to sell debts overseas, with a blind eye on the toll to national security and national labor force. The central core of US claimed wealth is a housing bubble. Canada has broad strengths in its foundation of a solid tangible nature. The reasons behind the Canadian rise to power pertain to:

development of Alberta conventional oil & gas deposits and oil sands
attractiveness of mining and energy assets, for acquisition and development
government fiscal responsibility (surplus versus US red ink, waste, escalating debt)
less hostile government officials, less military interference in national policy
corporate business cost advantages
several other key specific advantages

Global investors are awakening. They finally link the strong Canadian Dollar to soaring oil prices, two principal pillars of the Hat Trick Letter. Big European banks have begun to recommend selling US$-based securities in favor of Canadian currency. In addition to oil, Canadian lumber and mining industries have created a story built upon truly magnificent land resources, especially in western provinces. The North American housing boom has called for strong lumber demand. The Can$ must rise slowly, however, or else short circuit its own success from lost price competitiveness. Their northern economy is developing a broad base beyond simply mining and energy, often called minerals & resources. The risk is for mainstream commerce to be adversely affected. The primary driving force for a Can$ rise is the crude oil price. Development of western oil sand deposits has brought several billion$ in US investment, with the promise of future Chinese funds. Some speculation has given the looney added muscle as Canadian energy and mining firms are seen as ripe for acquisition. Any acquiring party must assemble a sizeable cash horde to execute on any M&A deal. Look for the crude oil price to consolidate in the 62 to 66 range, until early winter sets in and shortages are realized.

more...

[RawMaterials]

122. Global energy demand to grow 50 pct over next 25 yrs - ExxonMobil official

SINGAPORE (AFX) - Global energy demand is expected to grow 50 pct over the next 25 years, driven by strong economic growth in India and China, a top ExxonMobil executive said

"We expect sustained economic growth, just under three percent a year ... rising personal income and standards of living especially in Asia," said Kwa Chong Seng, ExxonMobil Asia Pacific's chairman and managing director

"China and India are very much part of the equation," Kwa told an energy forum organised by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)

"With this kind of three percent economic growth ... this would drive energy demand from 220 million barrels of oil equivalent (per day) to 335 (million barrels over the next 25 years)." With energy needs unlikely to ease, the need for major oil discovery has taken on greater urgency as existing fields mature, said Peter Cockroft, a visiting research ISEAS fellow who also spoke at the forum

"We are consuming at least six times more oil than we are finding and that to me is a big problem," Cockcroft said

"Where are we going to find our new oil? It's not obvious ... really we don't know," he said

Unless new oil discoveries are made, the world will continue to rely on the Middle East, home to the largest proven oil reserves of almost 734 bln barrels, for the bulk of its oil needs

"The supply is not where we want it ... Unfortunately, the supply of crude oil is in areas where there is a perception of instability," said Cockcroft, who has worked for 25 years in Asia for various energy firms including BHP Petroleum

To boost hopes of finding new oil fields, the world will have to start looking at places which has been avoided previously, such as the Arctic region and in deep waters, Cockcroft said

"We're going to find it in what I call 'extreme' conditions, places that we have avoided in the past." bh/mba/bmm/rc For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com



http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1127990757-105c0f08-22646




:yoiks:

[54anickel]

125. I saw this earlier RM, then I noticed it was from an ExxonMobil exec

and started to wonder...it's sorta sounds like W. screaming TERRA, TERRA!!!

Don't really know what to make of it - has their wishlist embedded in there - drilling in the Artic, deep waters, "the supply of crude oil is in areas where there is a perception of instability" (Iran?)

:shrug:

[RawMaterials]

130. It also give them

an excuse for making so much profit now, because they can argue that they are saving up to spend on exploring in expensive places to drill and extract oil.

[UpInArms]

123. 2:04 EST fairies dominate the markets

Dow 10,519.43 +46.34 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,136.48 +21.08 (+1.00%)
S&P 500 1,225.25 +8.36 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294 +0.32 (+0.75%)

NYSE Volume 1,358,449,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,183,374,000

2:00PM: The indices hold still with each managing to remain in positive territory... While eight of ten sectors chalking gains, the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.7%) has surfaced as one of the afternoon's best performers. Although crude and natural gas are on the rise, gasoline's downturn (-$0.099 $2.24/gal) may have helped retailers reverse course, swinging upwards by 1.1% and adding to homebuilders' 1.3% gain...

Within the sector as a whole, though, Disney (DIS 23.85 +0.48) and eBay (EBAY 40.97 +2.04) are the brightest spots. Disney, for its part, is reportedly set to unveil Mix Sticks, an MP3 player for kids, today. Shares of ebay, meanwhile, have soared 5.2% today after CSFB forecasted that the company will surpass Q3 consensus expectations. As such, the firm has raised its EPS and revenue projections for eBay, which is scheduled to report on Oct. 19... Separately, the company's recently acquired Skype is due to release its latest Windows VOIP service today, news that is perhaps eliciting further buying interest... NYSE Adv/Dec 2063/1126, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1683/1251

[RawMaterials]

124. Sprinkle a Little all around

[UpInArms]

128. a side of spin for you?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T180907Z_01_N29170879_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-8.XML

"The market's gains really are a response to the good fundamentals we've seen, like the jobless claims," Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., said. "It's really helping tech because that is one of the most cyclical parts of the economy. There is also hope that capital spending will be vigorous even if the consumer takes a break."

First-time claims for U.S. state unemployment insurance aid plunged more than expected in the week ended Sept. 24, falling 79,000 last week to 356,000 as hurricane-related applications declined, the Labor Department said.

[54anickel]

133. Oh now THAT'S rich!

There is also hope that capital spending will be vigorous even if the consumer takes a break

How many years have we been hearing about the consumer passing the baton off to corporate spending now?

Bwahahahaha! The only corporate spending I forsee right now is in M&As and stock buy-backs. We all know what M&As tend to do to employment numbers. Why would they ramp up for greater production if consumers are about to take a break from buying their products? Oh yeah, they'll export everything - NOT!

[UpInArms]

135. Hey 54anickel! Check out the buck!

as the market has soared - the buck has plummeted

:think:

Last trade 89.37 Change -0.10 (-0.11%)

Settle 89.47 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.25 Previous Close 89.47

High 89.62 Low 89.19

Last tick: 2005-09-29 14:05:13 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

137. Bit of a transfusion? Only so much blood to go around these days.

Gold market's closed, buck can take a breather, time to revive the stocks.

[54anickel]

127. Stocks Edge Higher As Oil Prices Drop

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050929/wall_street.html?.v=15

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks edged higher in listless trading Thursday as oil prices fell and investors continued to wait for hard data on the economic effects of hurricanes Rita and Katrina.

"The stock market is going nowhere slowly," said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. "Most portfolio managers are kind of stuck. It's still very unclear what the impact of higher oil prices is going to be on earnings in the third and fourth quarters."

Stocks are nearly unchanged for the month and trading volumes have declined. Investors are waiting for next week's unemployment report, which will give them a deeper understanding of the hurricanes' damage than the weekly claims numbers, which climbed by another 60,000 last week, leaving the total claims filed because of Katrina to 279,000.

Investors are also waiting for next month's earnings season to get under way, although fourth-quarter earnings are expected to be a better indicator of how strongly companies weathered the hurricanes.

more...

[UpInArms]

138. Crude Oil and NatGas both up for the day - Crude $66.79 NatGas $14.196

I call "bullshit" on that spin.

3:02pm 09/29/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $66.79/BRL, UP 44C, OR 0.7%

3:02pm 09/29/05 NOV NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT A NEW RECORD

3:02pm 09/29/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 9.6C, OR 0.7%, TO END AT $14.196/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

140. Crude, natural-gas prices each close 0.7% higher

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38624.6307270602-844408777&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude closed at $66.79 a barrel, up 44 cents in New York and November natural gas ended the session at a record $14.196 per million British thermal units, up 9.6 cents. The energy market remained concerned about U.S. supplies in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Natural gas was the main worry following a smaller-than-expected rise in supplies and slow output recovery in the Gulf. October unleaded gasoline dropped 3.4% to close at $2.2516 a gallon. October heating oil fell 0.8% to close at $2.1247 a gallon.

[54anickel]

142. Heh-heh - did you catch this part of it?

..."If there's anything you can hang your hat on, it's that with every passing day, some investors become convinced that there's not going to be any serious fallout or damage to the economy or earnings due to the hurricanes."

[UpInArms]

144. Ummm... Right... That's the ticket! : Water damage from Katrina seen

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-29T172832Z_01_N29400234_RTRIDST_0_HURRICANES-WATER-UPDATE-1.XML

MIAMI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Flooding and storm surge from
Hurricane Katrina caused about $44 billion of property damage
in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, risk analysis
company AIR Worldwide estimated on Thursday.


"While the flooding of New Orleans in the aftermath of the
storm has garnered the most attention, we estimate that the
devastating storm surge along the Gulf Coast, including
southern Louisiana, was equally destructive," Dr. Jayanta Guin,
vice president of research and modeling at AIR Worldwide, said
in a news release.


The estimate includes both insured and uninsured losses,
company spokesman Michael Gannon said.


"That is exclusive of wind damage. That is just water," he
said. "A portion of this is obviously going to be insured."


The company gave the following breakdown:


New Orleans - $22.6 billion


Louisiana - $16.2 billion


(except New Orleans)


Mississippi - $4.4 billion


Alabama - $793 million

...more...

Is that like AIG's statement that their corruption would have "no impact" on their business?

[AnneD]

154. They must be drinking Kool-Aid

AND smoking the funny stuff. Folks, I am here on the ground and I am here to tell you that even WITH good government and bucks to rebuild....you still have loss. We now have damaged infrastructure, that damaged infrastructure directly effects the economic vitality of the region and key industries nationwide, we are using borrowed money to fix it.......AND you don't think there is going to be serious fallout. I have a news flash, on a social level this will be the african-american equivalent of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. On the economic level, this was a series of bunker busting cluster bombs. The ripples will be felt for some time. We are feeling the first ripples here in Houston due to taken in the victims. The rest of you will feel the economic ripples from now on until the refineries and shipping are restored or rebuilt. Better get some vasoline to take with your heating bills....no effect my ass.

[54anickel]

145. Forbes and ABCNews running the same headline

Stocks Edge Higher As Oil Prices Fall

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/ap/2005/09/29/ap2252442.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1170511

snip to the meanwhile >

Oil prices rose. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $66.79, up 44 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

[UpInArms]

147. Reuters' spin: Stocks rally as jobless data cheers

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-29T190412Z_01_BAU843348_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-STOCKS.xml

ummmm... yeah.... right.... :crazy:

[UpInArms]

150. U.S. stocks close with rally gains; market looks past energy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38624.6691854745-844416980&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Thursday, after investors overcame worries about record high energy prices to focus on late-quarter portfolio additions. The Dow Jones Industrial (INDU) was up almost 80 points at 10,552 at its unofficial close. The S&P 500 ($SPX) closed up 10.84 points at 1,227.73 and the Nasdaq composite ($COMPX) up 25.82 points at 2,141.22.

:wow: Buy no matter what it is and how much it costs! What a great strategy for investment!

[UpInArms]

136. 2:40 EST manna from heaven?

Dow 10,543.78 +70.69 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,136.97 +21.57 (+1.02%)
S&P 500 1,226.91 +10.02 (+0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291 +0.29 (+0.68%)

NYSE Volume 1,531,404,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,324,900,000

2:30PM: Still climbing, each average again establishes fresh highs... A 1.1% rise in Technology has teamed with Financials' 1.3% gain to drive the advance, and is responsible for the Nasdaq's outperformance and 1.0% gain today. Buying interest within the sector is wide-spread - 76.5% of its components are on the rise - and numerous tech titans have chalked sizeable gains. Among the stand-outs are Yahoo (YHOO 33.48 +1.13), Apple (APPL 52.14 +1.06), Texas Instruments (TXN 33.52 +0.68), and Intel (INTC 24.39 +0.44), lending muscle that contributes to nearly every tech sect's positive standing...

As for Technology's 20 declining issues, none currently sport a 1% or higher loss... NYSE Adv/Dec 2147/1058, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1737/1216

[UpInArms]

139. 3:05 EST fleecing set for tomorrow?

Dow 10,533.82 +60.73 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,133.67 +18.27 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 1,225.51 +8.62 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.293 +0.31 (+0.73%)

NYSE Volume 1,652,886,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,428,689,000

2:55PM: Stocks hover around recently established highs, maintaining gains despite crude's $66.85/bbl (+$0.50) pricetag. Leadership remains broad-based, with Telecom Services - off 0.2% - posting the only loss. Down 9.2% on the year, the sector comprises a mere 3.2% of the S&P, however, and has little ability to stunt the market's advance. The financial sector, on the other hand, is the market's heaviest and accounts for over a fifth of the index. As such, its session-leading 1.2% gain can be largely credited for the market's afternoon rally...

Separately, the Treasury market has remained static, with the 10-year still down eight ticks at yielding 4.29%...NYSE Adv/Dec 2163/1056, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1790/1171

[UpInArms]

141. Corporate Friendly Chief Justice Sworn In - Markets dance the happy happy

joy joy dance

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38624.6354378009-844409779&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

Roberts sworn in as 17th U.S. chief justice

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- John Roberts was sworn in Thursday as the 17th chief justice of the United States after the Senate easily confirmed him in a 78-22 vote. Saying "judging is different than politics," Roberts plans to report to work at the Supreme Court Friday. Several business-related cases are on the docket for the court's next term, which begins Oct. 3.

[ozymandius]

143. Do you think he'll adjudicate solvency in government? n/t

[UpInArms]

146. (American Car Makers) Auto sales pace seen falling off

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB58BB8E6%2D2B66%2D4715%2DA1D0%2D608BDAC1669F%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - With fewer cars and trucks to sell, gut-wrenching gas prices and a growing consumer numbness to employee pricing deals, domestic automakers are expected to post a sizable U.S. September sales decline next week.

The Japanese manufacturers, while not immune to many of the economic headwinds, will likely outshine the competition, yet again.

Analysts are looking for a seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate in the mid-15 million unit range, down dramatically from 17.4 million a year ago and 16.7 million last month.

In August, employee pricing first began to lose its bite and Hurricane Katrina slammed sales in the South, combining for a disappointing month for the industry. See full story.

Joseph Amaturo, analyst at Calyon Securities, is looking for a sales rate of 15.7 million units, which he believes will pressure both the manufacturers and the suppliers.

Big Three bears the brunt

General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile) , Amaturo's favorite pick in the group, should post the steepest decline -- somewhere in excess of 20% -- because GM's "96-Hour Countdown," a campaign that stresses the employee discounts will stop Sept. 30, is an omen of a "very weak" month, he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

149. Where The Rubber Meets The Road

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/004245.php

The American people are badly led by the Topper$ that have attempted to establish their dominance of the rest of us. These self-appointed ubermenschen are as incompetent and inept as they come. But then, they are only emulating the C-Average Sovereign

snip>

Let me get this right - we are going to have expensive gasoline due to tight supplies, which stem from a lack of refining capacity, which in turn can't be built because of regulations we want to keep the air breathable?

How DARE we impose such restrictions upon the profits of a few Topper$! And to think that I believed that the high prices were coming from the reduction in world oil supply!


But there are other ways of dealing with this problem. Chrysler President Lee Iacocca once famously declared when speaking of his line of cars, "If you can find a better car - buy it!"

People did:

snip>

In the past, there was a movement in the United States to 'Buy American!' The only problem was that the American companies who were promoting this plan were not buying American themselves. American car manufacturer Ford, for example, was bragging about its 'world car' made from components produced all over the world, thus abandoning thousands of American workers by sending their work to lower-cost nations. These same workers who once bought Ford cars could no longer afford to do so as often.

The delicious irony here is that Henry Ford aroused the wrath of Corporate America when he raised the pay of his workforce to the point where they could afford to buy the cars they made. This made Ford workers among the highest-paid in America, and all of the other industrialists were under great pressure from their workers for similar wage increases.

Somehow, the nation survived.

snip>

Toyota Motor Corp. said Tuesday it will not raise its car prices to help U.S. rivals, breaking with its chairman's comments a day earlier that voluntary price increases and other steps were in order to help restore health to the U.S. auto industry. "Our basic stance is that prices are something for the market to determine," a spokesman at Japan's top auto manufacturer said. "We are not thinking about changing (vehicle) prices in order to help the U.S. auto industry."
That's what American car makers would be saying if the tables were turned!

more...

[54anickel]

151. Bush breaks first commandment of governing (Molly Ivins)

http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?ItemID=19670

snip>

The refugees trade tales of heroism and generosity, along with reports of the bad and the ugly. That's human nature, but there's nothing forgivable about organized government corruption.

I'm sorry, there are no exceptions: The first commandment of governing is Thou Shalt Not Steal the People's Money. Ronald Reagan came into office in 1980 on the mantra that he would rid the nation of Waste, Fraud and Abuse. He proceeded to raise the national deficit by $2 trillion with tax cuts and spending on the military in the face of a collapsing Soviet Union. This led to the peppy military procurement scandals of the late '80s and early '90s -- the $435 hammer and the $640 toilet seat.

When Newt Gingrich and Co. took power in 1994, they promised many "reforms" and spent millions of dollars on hearings and investigations -- the endless prosecution of Henry Cisneros may actually be a stronger case in point than the impeachment of Bill Clinton. Despite these splendid efforts, they never could find the Waste, Fraud and Abuse they claimed were the hallmarks of government. But this Bush administration has given us Waste, Fraud and Abuse galore.

The waste of money in Iraq is already into the billions, and the lack of accountability is fed by a Republican Congress that refuses to seriously investigate anything done by the Republican administration. The sums being overtly wasted are already staggering, and because there is no accountability, we can expect that situation not only to continue, but deteriorate.

With billions being allocated to clean up after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, you can already smell the corruption -- fat contracts awarded without competitive bidding. The New York Times reports, "More than 80 percent of the $1.5 billion in contracts signed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency alone were awarded without bidding or with limited competition, government records show, provoking concerns among auditors and government officials about the potential for favoritism or abuse."

more...

[Roland99]

152. Treasuries drop, jobless data force Katrina rethink

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh36082_2005-09-29_20-26-35_n29561488_newsml

NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt retreated on Thursday as jobless claims fell much more than investors predicted, suggesting Hurricane Katrina had only a minor impact on the national job market.

"The message from these numbers is the labor market has not shown any broad-based deterioration in the aftermath of Katrina," said Haseeb Ahmed, U.S. economist at JP Morgan.

Dealers were also increasingly worried about price increases in the economy, a concern that was compounded by unexpected gains in the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation.

Taken together, price concerns and signs of still-brisk economic activity indicated the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates regardless of spikes in the cost of energy.

Guess that explains the 80-point jump for the Dow.

[UpInArms]

153. numbers, blather and bye!

Dow 10,552.78 +79.69 (+0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,141.22 +25.82 (+1.22%)
S&P 500 1,227.68 +10.79 (+0.89%)
10-Yr Bond 4.289 +0.27 (+0.63%)

NYSE Volume 2,159,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,832,012,000

Close: Stifled throughout the morning, the stock market staged and sustained a noon-hour rally, as easing prices across the energy complex and ensuing sector leadership pushed the major indices to their highest levels of the week... With only two days remaining before Q3 comes to a close, end-of-the-quarter window dressing on the part of portfolio managers also contributed to the day's broad-based buying efforts...

Although crude's price tag rose back to $66.79/bbl (+$0.44), a strong build in natural gas (+$0.085 $14.18/mln BTUs) inventories amid ongoing supply disruptions as well as gasoline's (-$0.129 $2.21/gal) downward momentum from four-week highs perhaps best grabbed traders' attentions. As the pre-earnings season's market's focus remains fixated upon energy price action, and since there was little news on any front to offer a divergence or counter sentiment today, commodity trading gave investors a reason to seize bargains across the board following two weeks of declines and lackluster action during the last few sessions.Surging into the leader's slot today was the influential Financial sector, fueling the afternoon rally and driven by a 1.8% gain in brokers - for which soaring E*Trade (ET 17.24 +0.91) shares is largely responsible. Investors sent the online broker's shares up over 5.0% after hearing it will reportedly pay $1.6 bln for JP Morgan's (JPM 34.35 +0.43) Brown Co. for $1.6 bln in cash. A recovery in banks (+1.1%) also lent support, as did gains in 81 of the sector's 84 issues...

Matching the Utilities sector's 1.1% gain, Technology also served as an influential leader to the upside. Jumps in semiconductor (+1.4%), disk drives (+1.9%), hardware (0.9%), and software (+1.7%), results of widespread buying action, offset modest consolidation in the networking group (-0.3%). Benefiting from gasoline's pullback, rebounded retailers (+1.2%) and a recovery in homebuilders (+1.7%) - bolstered by a series of analysts' upgrades - helped send the Consumer Discretionary sector to a +0.8% finish. CSFB's increased Q3 earnings forecasts for eBay (EBAY 41.20 +2.27) also lent sizeable support...

After faring relatively well through the downbeat morning, on account of PepsiCo's (PEP 56.76 +1.70) momentum spurred by better than expected Q3 (Sep) earnings and heightened FY05 guidance, Consumer Staples also notched higher intraday and turned in a 0.8% advance. The session's sole laggard was Telecom Services, but its 3.2% weighting on the S&P essentially muted its 0.1% loss in terms of the overall market... With respect to the double dose of economic data delivered today, the final Q2 GDP read checked in at 3.3% - matching economists' expectations as well as the Q1 read; the deflator, meanwhile, came in at 2.6% (consensus 2.4%)... Katrina-induced jobless claims came in at 356K, falling 76K (consensus 420K)...

Ultimately, neither report garnered much notice or elicited much action within the equity market, as the GDP data are essentially "old news" and post hurricane initial claims have been a moving target over the past few weeks... Treasuries, conversely, took a bearish cue and closed the 10-year note down nine ticks and at a 4.29% yield...DJTA +1.70, DJUA +0.92, DOT +0.85, Nasdaq 100 +1.35, Russell 2000 +1.11, SOX +1.55, S&P Midcap 400 +1.24, XOI +0.33, NYSE Adv/Dec 2252/1014, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1850/1178

:hi:

[54anickel]

155. Bargains Galore! It don't get any better than this - we're gonna be rich!