Forecast: oil prices to hit 70$ per barrel border

[lovuian]

http://newsfromrussia.com/economics/2005/08/09/61125.html

18:22 2005-08-09
Oil prices climbed to a new record on Monday amid strong demand, worries about the nation's fuel supplies and security threats in Saudi Arabia.

After hitting $64 during trading Monday, the price of U.S. benchmark crude for September delivery closed at $63.94 a barrel, up $1.63 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That eclipsed Friday's record high close of $62.31 a barrel.

Crude futures today briefly rallied even higher, to $64.27 a barrel, then edged back. Light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 6 cents this morning to $63.88.

"Setting a new record in oil is like a broken record - it keeps happening over and over again," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "I think we're on a path to hit $70 a barrel."

snip...

"We think that the bigger source of tension is emanating from the Iranian situation," he added in a report.

Despite the rampant oil price there is no sign yet of demand letting up. Worries that the world's biggest consumer the United States may run short of gasoline after a string of unexpected refinery closures has contributed to the price surge.
more...

Does Russia know more than the US government???

[kestrel91316]

1. Way back early this spring I said $3.00 gas by Labor Day.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

35. Premium at the station by me was up to $2.959

Last week.

(I live in Brooklyn, btw.)

I don't drive so I don't pay much attention to it, but it caught my eye as I rolled past in the bus.

[kestrel91316]

48. I meant $3.00 for regular ...........premium doesn't count.

[TheFarseer]

2. total BS

why can't they just tell us the truth? that we are burning up too much gas in our SUV's and they can't keep up with demand? DOn;t give us bullshit excuses, we need the truth!

[Son of California]

3. OIL GOES UP -BUSH GOES DOWN

on the oil execs like the filthy whore he is!

[Skip Intro]

4. Lines for gas will doom the regime.

and if we "run short" there will be lines

[lovuian]

5. I totally agree and I think we are heading there!!!

China is already rationing how long before we do???

[AuntiBush]

6. Closer then we Know.

Neighbors: All war-mongrels have 3-5 SUV'S, one for her, one for him type families and of course their brand new pick-up trucks - the big ones. And they buy new ones every 6-8 months. Amazing.

Do obviously do not care about their children's future.

[The_Casual_Observer]

39. Those are the really mean and nasty ones. The ones that will use

guns if their comfort zone is threatened. If there were fuel shortages there is going to be some really scary shit.

[corkhead]

45. Didn't you get the memo? Gabriel is cleaning the spit

out of his trumpets as we speak.

:popcorn:

[RPM]

8. agreed - except oil is peaking 2 years too late...

:cry:

[moondust]

12. Bush goes AWOL.

In the middle of what is becoming a f'ing crisis for millions.

[Journeyman]

7. Hey, having a couple of oilmen in the White House has worked just fine...

Price of oil not right, they just call the Saudis and "jaw 'em down." What say we get a couple of Republican water guys in place for next term, or maybe a matching pair of Republican chemical and steel industry guys, or a Pharmaceutical whiz and an HMO exec. Let's seize our own destiny and strangle it.

Yeah. When it comes to screwing the people, there's nothing like an old Republican industry whore.

[Joebert]

9. There won't be lines until they can be blamed on (select all that apply)

- Terrorism
- Democrats
- North Korea
- Regulation on oil companies
- Pollution controls
- Atheists
- Immigrants
- Conscientous objectors
- The liberal press
- Anti-globalization protests
- High taxes


I've got my money on #2, #4, #5, #10 and #11.

:-)

[KansDem]

17. You forgot "Germans," Japanese," and "American Unions..."

I don't know quite how these would fit in, but they have been used in the past by the "All of our/my troubles are caused by ..." crowd.

[rman]

10. oil price rising at $20/year - make your predictions

Does anyone think prices will ever come down again?

[Joebert]

11. The day after it's replaced by something more expensive.

[dissent1977]

20. No, it will go up a lot in the future $70 a barrell will be considered...

cheap next year. Prices might drop by a few dollars a barrel once in a while, but the price will go right back up again and oil prices will steadily increase for years to come. The fact is we may have already hit the peak of oil production which means we are running out of oil.

[nookiemonster]

24. It will never drop.

Fuckers are just conditioning us. Case in point. If a gallon of gas is $2.25/gal now and shoots up to $3.00/gal, you'll be wishing for the day it falls back to $2.25. It's total bullshit.

[Vogon_Glory]

13. But Alternative Fuels Would Cost As Much As A War

I think I remember right wingie-dingies claiming that alternatives to the petroleum economy would cost as much as a war. Well, we've got the war (Over $500 billion so far in Iraq) and oil prices continue to rise after Generalissimo Gee Dubya sent our kids in harm's way in Mesopotamia.

Another right-wing joint foul-up between the fibbertarians, the Neo-Cons and the Religious Self-Righteous.

[PurityOfEssence]

15. Really? How many lives?

Ask 'em that. Funny how money is more important than human life to these sanctimonious blowhards.

[Vogon_Glory]

27. The Wingie-Dingies' Comeback

The wingie-dingies' comeback would be to cite the examples of the occasional poor sod who was injured putting up a wind turbine, the unlucky dude who fell off a roof installing solar panels, as well as the hapless victim on a bicycle clipped by a hit-and-run motorist.

Of course I don't post on the ex-Time Warner affiliate these days, so I don't interact with reality-challened right-wingers as much as I used to.

[Toots]

31. But after the money was spent you would have something

With war you lose everything.

[Vogon_Glory]

40. You Know That, I Know That, But...

You know that, I know that, but the idea is less than likely to take much root in the mindset of the knee-jerk "Wise Use" anti-environmentalist right wingie-dingie or their "Imminent Rapture" religious right buddies.

BTW, you do recognize irony, don't you?

[VegasWolf]

14. This is really pissing me off. I just lost 10 grand in the stock market

today because of oil! Republican friends at the club have
fire in their eyes when the name Bush is said.

[Gatchaman]

16. Gee, I remember watching something else go sky high a few years back...

when the stock market went through the roof. Of course, back then, we had a real president with no puppet master, and, of course, no war of distraction. How times have changed.

[NuttyFluffers]

26. I would be so tempted to rub it in all day long...

Just as they're getting into a nice drunken cuddle space I'd casually drop the "Bush" bomb. Stirring the coals can be fun!
:evilgrin:

But you are probably a better person than I. Good for you. :toast:

[VegasWolf]

18. But the religious right wing don't care. They would just as soon

join the Amish in the gentle life and print up gay hate slogans
on their printing presses.

[HockeyMom]

19. Women, of course,

shouldn't working, but getting married as young as they can, staying home, making babies, and homeschooling them.

[okieinpain]

21. I think they should set that level at around 85 dollars a barrel. we'll

hit 70 before the end of next week.

[lovuian]

22. Gosh you guys are great bumping this up Did ya notice

that the Russians anticipated the "UNEXPECTED REFINERY CLOSURES"

they knew all along this was coming!!! Why didn't we???

this isn't a US paper article guys this is a RUSSIAN!!!

[pinniped]

23. Wasn't it hovering around 50.00 USD during the (s)election?

?

[truthisfreedom]

25. oil is headed for $200/bl within the next 2 years. mark my words.

everything about bushco has been about creating a strategy for pure profit in the oil industry.

[Strelnikov_]

28. Considering The 73 Oil Shock Was A 10% Drop In Supply

which resulted in a 4x increase in price, $200/bbl is not out of range.

And scanning the landscape, an oil shock is about a 100% probability at this point. Take your pick from:

- Gulf of Mexico hurricane knocking out pumping/refining capacity.

- Civil war in Nigeria.

- Conflict with Venezula.

- Civil war in Saudi Arabia (economic Armageddon).

- Conflict with Iran (economic Armageddon).

[hatrack]

29. Total Global Consumption - 84 Million Barrels Per Day

Total global spare production capacity - `1.5 million barrels per day.

Global oil demand growth - roughly 2-3% per year.

Simple, non-rocket science mathematics here, folks.

[Toots]

30. Light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange

I understand the light part but what the hell is sweet crude? What makes it sweet?

[hatrack]

33. Lack of sulfur

High sulfur crude oil = "sour crude". It's more expensive and energy-intensive to refine, harder to pump and extract, since it tends to corrode pipes and equipment and in some cases the sulfur content in oil formations can become infected (so to speak) with sulfur-metabolizing bacteria that cause deposits of scale on pipes and fittings - troublesome and expensive.

In some cases, there is so much sulfur associated with oil formations that crews face the risk of poisoning or death from hydrogen sulfide gas. Much of the oil discovered in the Caspian Basin is very high in sulfur, which probably explains why BP et. al. were so happy to write off their investments in Azerbaijan - that, and the fact that what they discovered was about 10% of the more optimistic projections.

[Strelnikov_]

34. Yet The Media Keeps Touting The Caspian Development

as our salvation. I have actually seen articles that advertise the 1 M bbl/dy pipeline completed as the solution to dependence on Persian Gulf oil.

Idiots with word processors.

[Lorien]

32. The article doesn't mention the RECORD PROFITS posted by oil giants

last year. But it does say this:

"By far the biggest jolt to the markets has come from the geopolitical front," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Man Energy.

"We think that the bigger source of tension is emanating from the Iranian situation," he added in a report.


And the Freeps thought that starting wars would make gas cheaper. :eyes:

[Frederik]

36. Flashback to January, 2003

The Rand Corporation - the heart of the military-industrial thinktankocracy - predicted that the Iraq "liberation" would result in crude prices of $8-12 a barrel:

"For decades, the United States has appeared satisfied with the status quo of high oil prices more than $20 per barrel in today's dollars, rather than prices in the $8 to $12 per barrel range, which is where they would be today under a free market. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries drives oil prices artificially high by keeping the supply of oil artificially low.

U.N. sanctions against Iraq are a key factor in holding down worldwide oil production and keeping oil prices high. Because of the sanctions, Iraq produces fewer than 2.5 million barrels of oil a day -- far below what that country's huge oil resource base can sustain.

If Iraq is defeated in a war with the United States and allied nations, Iraq will need funds to rebuild. Oil exports are the obvious answer. Within 5 to 10 years, a combination of high pay-off investment and sound management could enable Iraq's oil fields to produce more than 10 million barrels of oil per day -- more than four times the current level.

Pumping millions of additional barrels of oil into the world market everyday would cause world oil prices to plummet. It is very unlikely that key OPEC members would agree to cut their own oil income by accepting significant cuts in their production. OPEC could plunge into a death spiral.

Under a free market, oil prices would probably fall to between $8 and $12 per barrel over the next 10 years -- down dramatically from today's price of about $25 per barrel. At current prices, the United States is sending about $90 billion per year to OPEC members and other oil exporting countries. Globally, about $350 billion per year moves from oil importers to oil exporters. With free-market oil prices, these huge transfers of wealth would drop by at least half and possibly as much as two-thirds."

http://www.rand.org/commentary/010603ATU.html

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

37. $8-12 is the oilman's vigorish on each barrel sold. nt

[The_Casual_Observer]

38. At the time they were all rubbing their hands together

And couldn't wait another minute to liberate all that oil. The sad part is that all those poor bastards are getting killed over there for these "noble causes" and most of them don't even know the truth.

[Frederik]

41. They are still rubbing their hands

ExxonMobil's profits this year will be the greatest of any business entity ever (estimated to be more than $25 billion I think - that's a nice windfall). Saudi Arabia's oil revenues have also increased perversly.

[caligirl]

53. Many wouldn't believe it anyway. Shoot to kill doesn't include 'thinking'

Lived around a few jarheads and so many by the kool aid.

[lovuian]

42. Did Anybody see the PBS special on $8.00 gas???

My hubby saw it and said rationing was taking place!!! Their needs to be a massive plan to start mass transport but thats just not happening!!!

[Khaotic]

43. $80 a barrel spin

The spin is on already.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, or the record price of oil.

The REAL record price of oil hasn't been eclipsed yet, spews the spinmeisters.

When adjusted for inflation, the REAL record high price of oil is supposed to be $80 a barrel.

So relax America, you're not really paying a lot for gas. Concentrate on the watch as it swings back and fourth, you're feeling sleepy, sleepy.

Now ... remember what White Out costs for just 8 fl oz.

What if you filled up your tank w/ White Out ... boy, gas is really cheap isn't it?

Keep watching the watch, sleeeeeepy, sleeeeeepy.

What if you filled up your tank w/ Pepto Bismal ... boy, gas is really cheap isn't it?

Keep watching the watch, sleeeeeeeeeeeeeepy, sleeeeeeeeepy.

Go out the malls, buy, buy, buy, buy.

Drive your vehicles, go on vacation.

We're at war, fear, fear, fear, scarrrrrry. Don't worry about your rights, we need security. You elected Bush, he's strong on terror, you're safe, you're safe.

More $$$$$$$$ on security.

Your rights are safe. You're safe.

More $$$$$$, more $$$$$$.

Fill up your tank.

Gas is cheap. No problems. We're working on a fuel alternative. We're an environmentally friendly administration. Clean Air Initiative ... yeah, that's it. Doesn't that sound nice?

Keep watching the watch. Sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeepy.

[sintax]

44. "Keep watching the watch. Sleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeepy

Very-Very good. Thanks for the levity to preserve the sanity

Amidst the calamity

[rainbow4321]

46. BP is now shutting down it's 4th unit--the refinery produces 460K barrel

It has 30 "units" at the refinery but this could probably be yet another excuse to jack up prices--3 other units are also be shut down for "inspection"--length of shut down time is "open-ended"---bringing it to a total of 4 units not working.


http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/081105dnbusbp.632a009a.html

BP Plc, the fourth-largest U.S. oil refiner, will shut a unit at its plant in Texas City, Texas, for safety inspections following two explosions since March that killed 15 workers. The refinery is the nation's third largest.

The impact on fuel production while the hydrogen recovery unit is shut is expected to be “minimal,” company spokesman Scott Dean said in a phone interview. BP will also conduct inspections of three other “high-pressure” units, a gasoil hydrotreater, a residual hydrotreater and an ultracracker, which are already shut for maintenance, he said.

Refinery management decided to “not re-start any of these units until they have a full top-to-bottom inspection,” Dean said. “The timing for this is open-ended. Until we are satisfied those units can be operated safely, we will keep them off-line.” He declined to specify how long the inspections would take.

Concern over refinery disruptions helped send gasoline futures to a record today. Gasoline for September delivery rose as much as 3 percent to $1.9525 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest in 21 years of trading.

[lovuian]

47. I'm telling ya Russia saw the Refinery shut downs way ahead!!!

Bush should be doing everything to keep those refineries moving but he aint!!! that says it all!!!

[enki23]

49. border?

since when is there a nice round number "border?"

[progressivebydesign]

50. While Nero fiddles in Crawford. n/t

[DemoTex]

51. Adios Delta .. soronora NWA. You will join us in BK by 9/30.

Then all the airlines, except for those based in Texas (American, Southwest, and Continental), will be in bankruptcy. Why are the Texas airlines insulated from our woes? Look at their political donations!

[sintax]

52. Planes Utilize Most Fuel During Takeoff

Vital Signs Fact of the Week

Planes Utilize Most Fuel During Takeoff

The world's airlines use some 205 million tons of aviation fuel (kerosene) each year, producing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and methane. Jet fuel is the second-largest expense to airlines after labor and can amount to 20 percent of companies' operating expenses.