STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 17 June

[ozymandius]

Friday June 17, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 218 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 180 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 243 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1300
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 15, 2005

Dow... 10,578.65 +12.28 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,089.15 +14.23 (+0.69%)
S&P 500... 1,210.96 +4.38 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.08% -0.04 (-0.95%)
Gold future... 437.90 +7.00 (+1.60%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

Mark down June 10, 2005 as the day the great commodity bull market resumed. The USDollar continued to rise, but that story must be put aside. The euro currency finally reacted to the much anticipated EU votes. The real story was the move back above 4.0% in Treasurys, a jump in gold, continued upward momentum in energy, the upward lift in the HUI goldbug stock index, and the move back to 80 cents in the Canadian Dollar. It all happened last Friday. As in the spring of 2004, the lows in long-term interest rates marked the beginning of the renewed dominance of commodities over debt-backed paper.

Unwittingly, the US Federal Reserve engineered a bond rally which might have defined its top, aiding by a “tipped off” General Motors debt downgrade. The final piece was the European vote to reject centralized power. Toss in a clearing of the decks after hedge fund bloodletting. Dominoes fell one after the other to create finally an environment conducive for the next Major Elliott Wave upward for gold and the commodity sector generally. EW1 is done. EW2 has now begun. Never mind crude oil, which will soon be recognized as in what this here analyst has called a “perpetual bull market” from here to eternity. Rumor has it that divine portfolios contain energy stocks in diluvian proportions, as their data on deposits is not tainted by human hands. That is not to say that the ebb & flow of financial market liquidity cannot inflict its own hell & havoc in typically seasonal fashion.

In the last few weeks a remarkable sense of connection has become quite evident. At first, a title came to me, like “Dominoes Fall: The Fed, Taxes, GM, Hedges, China, Bonds, Euro, Gold, then the Aftermath As The Stage is Set For Commodity Bull Resumption” but that was too long and strange. As the dominoes have fallen, change has been swift, enough to cause strong winds and perhaps some electrical sparks, if not storms. The early location of such storm activity is between Asia and the USA, in particular between Beijing and Washington DC. Trade war is on the rise, as drumbeats pound louder and more frequently in response to the frustration of textile floods, jobless trends, even the erosion of job quality. To the USGovt, a job is a job and it counts, worthy of mention from the politician pulpit. To households, a substandard job is a ticket to poverty and despair, worth little to provide for oneself, let alone a family, and surely not enough to cover health care costs.

-cut-

AFTERMATH & CONUNDRUM

In the aftermath, the hedge fund community covered their “EuroBond vs TBond” spreads. Borrowed euro money (lower rate) was used to purchase US Treasury bonds (higher rate). The time had come to cover the spread. Sell the USTBond and buy back the EuroBond. Thus the US Treasury 10-yr yield returned above 4.0% just like last year. It is right at 4.1% today. Gold has moved to 437, even as crude oil has moved toward 56. Gold, which for two years moved in lockstep with the euro, now pays little attention to the euro. In fact, gold is benefiting from the last leg in the euro decline. Longstanding European veterans are selling the euro in favor of gold in Switzerland. They recognize the sea change toward European monetary inflation to rescue their ailing economy, damaged from competing currency wars.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.26 Change -0.46 (-0.52%)

Dollar Is About To Lose Ground To Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1645&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls went through another rollercoaster session around the 1.2100 figure as the dollar longs managed to push the pair below the 1.2100 handle once again. As the euro traders recover from another assault by the greenback , they will most likely take the fight to the greenback with then single currency aiming for the offers scattered around the 1.2200 figure. Indicators signal a maturing trend with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart at 50.02. Stochastic is treading below oversold line on the daily chart at 13.50, which is indicative of a trending market. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at 58.96. RSI is treading above the oversold line on the daily chart at 31.22 with the 4-hour chart RSI neutral at 48.06. MACD remains deep below the zero line on the daily chart and is pointing upward below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

<snip>

USD/JPY –
Japanese Yen continued its slow advance against the dollar with yen traders making their way below the 109.00 figure. As the price action remains subdued, dollar longs should have little problem defending the 108.00 figure ahead of the weekend. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 25.98. Stochastic is above the overbought line on the daily chart at 84.37 with Stochastic on the 4-hour chart neutral at 24.37, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is treading below the overbought line at 58.44 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart RSI also neutral at 47.69. MACD has made a bullish crossover above the zero line on the daily chart, while the MACD is pointing downward above the zero line on the 4-hour chart.

...more...

Will The U of M Survey Go The Way Of The Empire And Philly Survey?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1644&Itemid=62

Outlook: The US current account deficit is predicted to have widened to 190.0B in the first quarter of 2005 after increasing to 187.9B in the last quarter of 2004. Cheap Chinese exports were probably the major factor augmenting this seemingly never ending debt as the beginning of 2005 saw the scrapping of the Multi Fibre Agreement. By ending this agreement, the international tariffs and quotas that have been imposed on Chinese goods for over ten years were completely scrapped, opening up US markets fully to Chinese textile imports. Since then, textile and clothes from China have flooded US markets with the import of some goods jumping over 100 percent. In response to this, Congress passed emergency trade restrictions on seventeen Chinese textile products a few weeks ago. US officials hold that the Chinese have an unfair advantage in the US market due to the fact that their currency, the Yuan is pegged to 8.28 to one greenback and cannot free float in the FX market. However, the political pressure that the United States and Europe has put on the Chinese to revalue has not lead to any breakthroughs as China’s officials are stalwart in their belief that a sudden change in the yuan would be exceedingly detrimental to the Chinese economy . The US trade balance reached a three year low in February and posted very negative numbers in both January and March as well. Internationally, the deficit is troubling as many in the global community are expressing their view that the U.S. trade situation is dangerous for the world economy. In a recent speech, US Treasury Secretary John Snow expressed his belief that brining down the world’s current account imbalances should be a “shared responsibility” among leading economies and that the U.S. should put more effort into balancing our own. This rhetoric is nothing new as US officials have been making similar statements for years; however, no real improvement has materialized thus far.

Prior: The current account balance moved lower in the fourth quarter of 2004 to hit a record low of -187.90B. Since the third quarter of 1996, this statistic has been declining exponentially due to a large increase in the government budget deficit and decreasing international investment in the United States. Cheap Chinese imports have also played a roll in the spiraling number as popular discount chains like Wal-Mart heavily rely on Chinese products to keep their prices down. Furthering this, imports of Japanese cars have been reaching record highs recently as rising oil prices have made their fuel-efficient vehicles much more attractive then their gas-guzzling American counterparts. ...more...

Will only be around for the first half of the day - still running!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

4. Dollar slips ahead of deficit data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7107326B%2DE8E2%2D45B9%2DBEF3%2D451B9E7BDC48%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar drifted lower Friday ahead of data expected to show a widening U.S. current account deficit, with some unexpectedly strong European numbers also having an impact.

The U.S. current account deficit for the first quarter is expected to have widened to $189.4 billion from $187.90 billion the previous quarter, according to a MarketWatch survey of economists.

The euro was at $1.2181, compared with $1.2098 on Thursday. Gains accelerated during the European session.

There were surprisingly strong industrial production figures in the eurozone in April, as production rose 0.6% on the month. After a brief bout of profit-taking once the figures were released, the euro started to climb higher.

<snip>

"Such a reduction of pressure, all else equal, would at the margin reduce obstacles to a yuan regime change, although we do not believe that this trade deal is specifically linked to the currency issue," they said.

...more...

Is anyone else as disgusted with the term "regime change" as I am?

[UpInArms]

16. Dollar mixed after current account deficit

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.3591751736-836883500&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar gained strength against the euro but fell against the yen after news that the current account deficit hit a record high of $195.1 billion in the first quarter. The Commerce Department said the deficit amounted to a record 6.4% of gross domestic product. Economists expected the current account to widen to $189.4 billion. The euro fell to $1.2164 from $1.2191 before the news. The dollar stood at 108.83 yen, down from 109.7 yen beforehand.

[ozymandius]

41. Dollar extends losses on record deficit

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar accelerated its decline against the euro on Friday after news that the U.S. current account deficit widened to a record $195.1 billion in the first quarter.

The deficit, running at a record 6.4 percent of gross domestic product, was wider than the $190 billion forecast by economists. The deficit in the fourth quarter of last year was also revised to a slightly wider $188.36 billion.

The data underscore the extent to which the U.S. needs to attract large inflows of foreign capital to fund the deficit and are a reminder to traders of the dollar's structural weaknesses.

"The dollar's recent rally has been the direct result of euro weakness caused by European political and economic problems while for the past two months the market appeared to forget the persistent deficit woes of the United States," wrote Boris Schlossberg, chief fundamental strategist at Forex Capital Markets in New York, in a note to clients.

more...

[UpInArms]

39. a peek at the buck (87.95)

Last trade 87.95 Change -0.77 (-0.87%)

Settle 88.72 Settle Time 23:36

Open 88.68 Previous Close 88.72

High 88.76 Low 87.90

Last tick: 2005-06-17 11:22:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

3. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jun 17	8:30 AM	Current Account		Q1	-	-$187.0B	-$190.0B	-$187.9B -	
Jun 17	9:45 AM	Mich Sentiment-Prel.	Jun	-	89.0		88.8		86.9	-

[UpInArms]

14. Current Account Deficit at RECORD -$195.1 BILLION

8:30am 06/17/05 U.S. Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ABOVE $189 BLN EXPECTED

8:30am 06/17/05 U.S. Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT UP TO RECORD $195.1 BLN

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. Q1 current account deficit up to record $195.1 bln

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.3542817593-836883038&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. current account deficit widened by 3.6% to a record $195.1 billion in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The deficit amounted to a record 6.4% of gross domestic product. The widening of the deficit was above forecasts. Economists expected the current account to widen to $189.4 billion in the first quarter. The increase in the current account was largely due to a larger deficit in trade of goods, which rose to $186.3 billion. Foreign-owned assets in the United States increased $226.1 billion in the first quarter.

[UpInArms]

29. Consumer Sentiment - Happy Happy Joy Joy! 94.8! Wheeeee!

9:47am 06/17/05 U.S. JUNE UMICH SENTIMENT ABOVE CONSENSUS 88.6

9:47am 06/17/05 U.S. JUNE UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 94.8 VS 86.9 IN MAY

[UpInArms]

36. here's the spin:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3863FA93%2DC99B%2D482C%2D9A33%2D503198B3D449%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

"Higher stock prices and the lowest mortgage rates in over a year probably contributed to the increase in optimism seen in early June as well," Stanley said.

[UpInArms]

5. BofA investing $3B in Chinese bank

Deal is biggest foreign move into China's financial sector

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B92CE8DD8%2DD68F%2D4C44%2DB80A%2D1319F637C999%7D

SAN FRANCSICO (MarketWatch) -- Bank of America has agreed to buy a 9% stake in China Construction Bank for $3 billion in what would be the largest single foreign investment in the country's banking sector to date.

The second-largest U.S. bank by assets has also committed to invest another $500 million to maintain its ownership level when China Construction Bank sells shares to the public later this year.

"This investment is aimed at creating a long-term benefit by partnering with the best positioned bank in China, which is one of the fastest growing economies in the world with 1.3 billion consumers," Kenneth D. Lewis, Bank of America's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.

News of Friday's agreement was first reported by The Wall Street Journal after the U.S. markets closed Thursday. Read the Journal story.

Bank of America (BAC: news, chart, profile) also receives a non-exclusive, five-and-a-half-year option to increase its stake to 19.9% at the price of the shares in the initial public offering.

The deal represents the first big foray into China by Bank of America and gives the company access to new growth opportunities at a time when expansion in the U.S. has become more difficult. BofA holds 10% of U.S. deposits, the legal limit.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Toyota aims to cut fuel-cell car price 95% by 2015

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={92CE8DD8-D68F-4C44-B80A-1319F637C999}&siteid=mktw

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) aims to cut the cost of hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars to $50,000 from more than $1 million by 2015, when it hopes to begin selling the cars, Toyota board member Kazuo Okamoto told the Financial Times in an interview carried in the paper's Friday international edition.

It is the first time Toyota has revealed its launch plans for hydrogen cars, which it believes will provide a clean long-term replacement for gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, the FT said. Fuel cells convert hydrogen into electricity to power the car and emit only water.

The target date given by Okamoto, who takes over as the company's head of research and development next month, counters more cautious forecasts from Toyota's North American researchers this year.

...more...

[ozymandius]

23. Good morning all. Once again - Japan leads the way in technology and

innovation while our braintrusts of the American auto industry look like a bunch of ostriches.

[amandabeech]

37. Serious technical problems with obtaining and transporting hydrogen

have yet to be solved. In the U.S., hydrogen is obtained by stripping the carbon atom off the four hydrogen atoms in methane or natural gas. Natural gas is used as the energy source for this operation. Natural gas is becoming increasingly scarce in North America, and even with the addition of natgas from Alaska and the Canadian Arctic, supplies are still expected to be tight, since natgas is heavily used in mining and processing tar sands and is increasingly used to generate base-load electricity and heat extraordinary numbers of mansions. Transporting natgas across the oceans is expensive, energy-intensive, and requires terminals in the destination country that no one wants in his or her backyard. Otherwise, hydrogen is usually obtained by splitting water molecules using electricity, heat, catalysts or some combination of the above. Generating the very significant amount of electricity or heat needed would be a serious problems now, and is an energy loser. That means that one would obtain less energy from burning the hydrogen or running it through a fuel cell than was contained in the electricity or heat in the first place.

I've rambled on enough, so I won't get into the transport and handling problems.

My point is, that great advances in hydrogen technology may not prove to be as much of an advantage as our political "leaders" have made it out to be. Nevertheless, I admire Toyota greatly and dislike GM intensely. Ford and DaimlerChrysler may survive longer, IMHO.

[ozymandius]

42. Just an aside -

I remember in middle school when we would make hydrogen by dissolving zinc with hydrochloric acid in a sealed beaker. We would then test for the presence of hydrogen by uncapping the beaker and igniting the contents with our striker. "Poof" - a brilliant white flash was the proof of success.

I wonder how many ways there are to make hydrogen that do not involve extracting them from fossil fuels.

[amandabeech]

47. The Net Energy or Energy Returned on Energy Invested for hydrogen,

ethanol, biodiesel and other oil substitutes is very low.

Net Energy or Energy Returned on Energy Invested ("EROEI") attempt to show how much energy must be expended obtain other energy sources, like oil and ethanol. (Technically, these "sources" are just storage and transport mediums for the actual energy). For example, it may now take the energy in one barrel of oil to pump 30 out of the ground in Saudi Arabia. In contrast, one barrel of oil and oil equivalents (natural gas energy expressed as oil) will yield the corn ethanol equivalent of 1.3 barrels of oil. In the first case, the net is 29 barrels, and in the second .3. Imagine how much more driving you can do with the Saudi oil over the ethanol! Imagine how many acres of corn, barrels of diesel and pounds of natgas-based fertilizer you'd need to come up with that extra 28.7 barrels of oil. Even with autos getting 5X the gas mileage that we do now would we be able to live as we do now on corn ethanol.

Here are some other minimum numbers I've seen, to the best of my recollection:

6:1 + for coal fired power plants
2:3 for electricity to hydrogen, at best
4:1 + for nuclear power plants
4:1 for traditional PV
25:1 for wind (when it's blowing)

I can't recall a number for biodiesel not from waste materials.

Here's a caveat: I'm not a scientist but a former lawyer, but I've been seriously following this issue for at least four years. I simply don't see anything on the horizon that will replace oil in terms of EROEI.

I'm in the process of moving and looking for a new job right now, otherwise I'd volunteer to give you better lists of sources for the EROEI/net energy concept. If you're still interested in the fall, when I hope I'll be more settled, I'd be happy to come up with a list. In the meantime, try the Environment and Energy and Peak Oil forums here to get more information, or try Google. I also recommend the EnergyResources yahoo group if you're willing to spend some time going through masses of old posts. The moderator there has a real bug up his you know what on the topic.

I hope that this has been somewhat helpful. Have a great weekend and thanks for your contributions to this thread. I look at it at least briefly every day.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

45. Well, there is water electrolysis...

And you can generate the electricity needed for that with a modular hydroelectric devices that in a 20'x4'x10' module that just drops into the water. One module generates 1KW/hr, even in a slow-moving river.

[UpInArms]

7. GE eyes Malaysia consumer banking business - report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B28BA2F84%2DB106%2D4353%2DAD0C%2D9239F43717E0%7D

KUALA LUMPUR (MarketWatch) -- General Electric International Inc., a unit of General Electric Co. (GE), plans to start a consumer-finance business in Malaysia by 2008, the daily Sun reports.

"We are flexible in which way to get in (consumer finance). We can buy into existing banks with equity stakes that we are comfortable with or start up on our own," GE's Southeast Asia president Stuart L Dean said, according to the report.

GE's consumer-finance business is the group's second-largest operations in Southeast Asia after GE Energy. The company has a presence in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore either via joint ventures or on its own.

Last November, Southern Bank Bhd. (1333.KU) and GE ended discussions for a proposed joint venture to develop automobile financing in Malaysia.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. U.S., U.K. missions in Nigeria close - oil to skyrocket??

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B22D6DB78%2DDD39%2D4F6E%2D896F%2DC09C504C00B6%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. and U.K. consular offices in Lagos, Nigeria have closed temporarily due to security concerns, wire reports said Friday.

The U.S. made its decision on Thursday, and the U.K., which has its office on the same street, decided to close its office as well.

Crude-oil prices were above $57 a barrel amid the tension in the oil-producing country. The dollar was weaker against the euro and the Swiss franc.

...very short blurb...

[UpInArms]

31. Crude rallies above $57 at Nymex open

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.4201696065-836888274&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- July-dated crude futures contracts rose 87 cents to $57.45 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Geopolitical concerns are providing the latest spark with the announcement that the U.S. embassy in Nigeria has been closed on unspecified security concerns," said John Kilduff, vice president of energy risk management at Fimat, in a note to clients. "Nigeria's naturally light sweet crude oil is prized by refiners for the ease by which it can be transformed into motor fuel, especially gasoline."

[UpInArms]

38. Crude at $58.10 bbl

11:45am 06/17/05 CRUDE HITS SESSION HIGH OF $58.10

[ozymandius]

54. Oil Prices Hit New High Above $58 Mark (close)

WASHINGTON - Crude oil prices surged to a record high above $58 a barrel on Friday, sustaining a rally built on strong demand for gasoline and diesel and on concerns about refiners' ability to keep up.

"This is a pivotal point we're at now," said oil analyst John Kilduff of Fimat USA in New York. "We're one hiccup away from $60."

After climbing as high as $58.60 per barrel, light sweet crude for July delivery settled at $58.47, an increase of $1.89 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That topped the exchange's previous intraday high of $58.28 set on April 4 and exceeded the previous closing high of $57.27, set April 1.

more

[UpInArms]

9. How Big a Cloud Is KPMG Under?

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jun2005/nf20050617_9766_db016.htm

It probably won't face an Andersen-style indictment for dodgy tax shelters, but a big fine is likely, and former partners may be targeted

Will KPMG be the next Arthur Andersen? Probably not. But the Big Four accounting titan, under attack in Washington for problematic tax shelters that cost the IRS hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenues in the late 1990s, may be preparing itself, its clients, and former and current staffers for stiff penalties stemming from a longstanding Justice Dept. probe.

<snip>

"You don't indict the company because it assists in your prosecution by cooperating fully," says John C. Coffee, a Columbia University law professor and director of the school's corporate-governance center. "We have seen deferred prosecution agreements becoming very popular in the last two years."

After Andersen, Coffee says, prosecutors don't want to risk putting another giant company out of business, depriving thousands of innocent employees of jobs, disrupting client relationships with thousands of other outfits, and shrinking the Big Four field of accounting titans by yet another firm. What's more, Justice suffered a humiliating reversal recently when the Supreme Court threw out the Andersen conviction, albeit on technical grounds involving a judge's jury instructions.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Mortgage interest rates rise

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20050617-9999-1b17calbrfs.html

Rates on 30-year mortgages rose for the first time in five weeks, according to Freddie Mac.

Its nationwide survey showed that for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, rates averaged 5.63 percent, up from 5.56 percent last week.

<snip>

The nationwide averages for mortgage rates do not include add-on fees known as points. The one-year ARM had an average fee of 0.7 point and the other three mortgage categories carried fees of 0.5 point.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

11. Washington urged to adopt standard on identity theft

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=FT&Date=20050617&ID=4899662

The chairman of the Federal Trade Commission on Thursday encouraged lawmakers to adopt a federal notification standard that would force companies to alert consumers if a data breach had caused "significant" risk of identity theft. But they stopped short of recommending a restriction on the sale of Social Security numbers.

Deborah Majoras, The FTC chair, also told the Senate commerce committee she did not support the creation of an office of identity theft within the FTC, which some lawmakers suggested, if it were specifically designed to assist identity-theft victims.

...very short blurb...

[UpInArms]

12. KeyBanc cuts GM, Ford, Delphi and Visteon on UAW talks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.3464718056-836882538&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - KeyBanc analysts on Friday downgraded General Motors Corp. (GM) , Ford Motor Co. (F) and Delphi Corp. (DPH) to underweight from hold, saying any concessions by the United Auto Workers to GM will likely fall below investor expectations. Any deal, expected to be announced about June 30, would save GM some $400 million to $800 million a year, not $2 billion. "Since General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Delphi Corp. stocks have risen in recent weeks based on expectations that the UAW would make major concessions to all three, we believe the above news will disappoint investors, causing the stocks to decline," the analysts wrote. KeyBanc also cut Visteon Corp. (VC) to hold from buy.

[UpInArms]

13. St. Paul Travelers subpoenaed in finite risk ins. probe

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.3459672454-836882508&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- St. Paul Travelers (STA) has been subpoenaed by the U.S. Attorney's office as part of an investigation into finite risk insurance, the insurer disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company noted that others in the insurance industry have also been subpoenaed. St. Paul plans to fully cooperate with any requests. The stock closed Thursday down 18 cents at $38.93.

The corruption within the insurance industry continues...

[converted_democrat]

17. I'm really unhappy with insurance companies right now.

My husband and I pay through the nose for decent home insurance because we live in Florida. (hurricanes) Many of the companies have gotten together and decided that they will now require a 25% deductible if your damage is hurricane related. That's alot of money. If we lost our house to a hurricane we would lose between $50,000 to $75,000 on the total value of the house. It's absurd.

:rant:

[UpInArms]

19. G'morning c_d!

Good to see you again!

Insurance companies have been doing lots of nefarious deeds for quite some time now - seems that they are not in the bizness of insurance much at all :shrug:

[converted_democrat]

20. Good morning to you UIA!!!!!!!

:hi: Hope you have a good day!

[ozymandius]

25. Insurance scams in Florida have been well documented.

My wife has an old friend in Tallahassee. Friend works with the department of family and children services and occasionally has to deal with displaced kids whose homes have been destroyed during the last hurricane season. She has related stories of insurance companies' refusal to return phone calls from claimants; of rewriting policies after-the-fact to escape liability for hurricane damage. All with impunity, apparently, because those they cheat rarely have the resources to challenge a huge insurance company in court.

Jeb's buddies in state government do next to nothing to help these people, friend says. Bloody typical.

[converted_democrat]

33. We have a friend that was hit really hard last year..............

Three of the storms last year damaged his house. They didn't even return his first call until after the second storm and they want him to pay 3 different deductibles for 3 different storms. Well, if they would've fixed the house after the 1st storm, chances are he wouldn't have even had damage from the other storms. (A tree went through his living room in the first storm, and it made the house unstable. They didn't do anything to fix it and the next storm caused the roof to be taken off and lots of water damage.) They would not even let him have the option of taking the deductible out of the check, they want $15,000 before they do anything. How is a preacher supposed to come up with $15,000 to have repairs done? The house is still not repaired.

[Maeve]

26. And yet, with all its loses, Nationwide made a record profit last year

And they are increasing rates....(Columbus is home to Nationwide, so we get all the news about them)

Nationwide is on its OWN side!

[ozymandius]

28. You can forget about being "in good hands with Allstate" too.

These scheisters want to collect premiums and never pay anything out. It took me weeks to get them to pay for my truck that one of their clients totalled. My sister, a former insurance attorney, knows about these guys. They're bad news.

[cosmicdot]

53. Bermuda-based ACE Receives Subpoena in Reinsurance Probe

Bermuda-based ACE Receives Subpoena in Reinsurance Probe

(Family Values: the article doesn't mention that ACE's Pres. and CEO is, Evan, one of AIG Maurice Greenberg's son. Of course, the other son, Jeffrey, headed up Marsh & McLennan before NY Atty Gen. Eliot Spitzer charged that company with bid-rigging and accepting)

`````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
ACE Receives Subpoena in Reinsurance Probe

June 17, 2005 1:50 PM EDT

NEW YORK - Bermuda-based insurer ACE Ltd. said Friday it has
received a subpoena from the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District
of New York in connection with a widening probe of so-called finite
risk insurance products.

Finite risk products involve reinsurance, which authorities contend
has been used by some companies to manipulate their financial
statements.

ACE earlier received subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange
Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in connection
with an investigation into these nontraditional products.

~snip~

On Thursday, Philadelphia Consolidating Holding Corp. said it
received a subpoena from the SEC on reinsurance products.

~snip~

General Re, a unit of billionaire investor Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is accused of structuring a reinsurance
transaction to allow AIG to add a total of $500 million in phony
loss reserves to its balance sheet. AIG recently restated earnings
for five years.

Earlier this week, a number of other smaller reinsurance companies
received subpoenas from the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District
of New York, including PartnerRe Ltd., Bristol West Holdings Inc.,
XL Capital Inc. and Renaissance Re.

~snip~

http://my.earthlink.net/article/bus?guid=20050617/42b24ac0_3ca6_1552620050617-1907023396

[UpInArms]

18. Treasurys retain losses after U.S. trade data release

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.3659428472-836883974&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasury notes and bonds remained lower, under pressure amid U.S. dollar depreciation linked to a report that showed the U.S. current account deficit swelled to a record. The current account, a broad measure of trade and investment flows, widened by 3.6% to a record $195.1 billion -- a record 6.4% of gross domestic product -- in the first quarter. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last 7/32 lower at 100 7/32. Its yield stood at 4.10% vs. 4.07% at Thursday's close.

[UpInArms]

32. Benchmark Treasury note pressured by sentiment data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38520.425013669-836888606&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark 10-year Treasury note prices fell anew Friday after a report showed consumer sentiment improved this month. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 94.8 from 86.9 in May. The increase was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to inch higher to 88.6. The 10-year note was last 7/32 lower at 100 7/32, yielding 4.10% vs. 4.07% Thursday.

[UpInArms]

21. Web captures newspaper readers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBB7A037A%2D15BE%2D402B%2DB002%2DAD8EC6BA428F%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- One out of five newspaper readers who go online have begun to rely more on the Web edition of the paper than the "dead trees" version.

Nielsen/NetRatings (NTRT: news, chart, profile) reported research that 21 percent of Web users who read newspapers have transferred "primarily" to online, while 72 percent still rely on print.

Gerry Davidson, senior media analyst for the research firm, said, "Accordingly, many online editions now feature original content and have developed a strategy that includes online message boards and editorial blogs which leverage the medium's strengths of interactivity and immediacy."

Nielsen/NetRatings also released traffic information for the top online newspapers for May showing NYTimes.com (NYT: news, chart, profile) first with an audience of 11.3 million unique visitors, followed by USAToday.com (GCI: news, chart, profile) (9.2 million), WashingtonPost.com (WPO: news, chart, profile) (7.4 million), LATimes.com (TRB: news, chart, profile) (3.8 million), and SFGate.com (3.4 million).

...more...

a bit "off topic" but worth noting :)

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Stage remains set for a higher open as the futures market continues to trade above fair value... Meanwhile, financial stocks should be in focus after Bank of America (BAC) agreed to pay $3.0 bln for a 9% stake in China Construction Bank while reports suggest Morgan Stanley (MWD) may reconsider plans to spin off its Discover unit...

Software should also garner some attention after Adobe Systems (ADBE) beat analysts' Q2 forecasts by a penny but merely issued in-line Q3 guidance while homebuilders could get a boost following KB Home's (KBH) strong Q2 earnings report and several Smith Barney upgrades

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating solid follow-through buying interest for equities... First quarter current account figures have widened to a new record of -$195.1 bln, higher than expectations of -$190.0 bln and versus a revised Q4 figure of -$188.4 bln (from -$187.9 bln)

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a higher open for the cash market ahead of a report that may show June consumer confidence increased for the first time this year... However, before the University of Michigan releases a preliminary read on consumer sentiment (consensus 88.0) just after the market opens, it appears investors are anticipating the Commerce Dept. (at 8:30 ET) to show a more reserved widening in the U.S. current account deficit (consensus -$190.0 bln)

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low and is challenging the 20-day moving average crossing at 1551.65. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's reaction high crossing at 1557 would signal that the decline off May's high has come to an end. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 1519.09 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 5.00 pts. at 1552 as of 5:32 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's breakout above the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1212. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this spring's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1219.30 then the contract high crossing at 1235 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1197, would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The September S&P 500 Index was up 2.80 pts. at 1218.50 as of 5:35 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

24. Stocks set to open up on economic data

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8APBCAG1.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

JUN. 17 7:38 A.M. ET U.S. stock futures are trading higher Friday, as investors gear up for more economic data. Economists expect the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index to show a modest improvement, and see a more restrained widening in the U.S. current account deficit.

Dow Jones futures were recently up 30 points, Nasdaq futures were ahead 5 points and S&P futures were up 2.8 points.

<snip>

The Department of Commerce is due to release the current account deficit for the first quarter at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists expect a widening to $190.0 billion from $187.9 billion in the fourth quarter.

The University of Michigan releases its preliminary consumer sentiment index for June at 9:45 a.m. Economists call for a reading of 89.0, up from the 86.9 final May reading.

Stocks rose modestly Thursday despite a rise in the price of oil and the release of some relatively downbeat economic news. Philadelphia-area manufacturers saw their first contraction in activity in two years in June, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

...more...

Will the markets continue to shrug of bad data?

[ozymandius]

27. Will the markets continue to shrug of bad data?

My guess is "yes". It's been happening all week. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

35. here's this week's reports that have no meaning

Jun 14	8:30 AM	Core PPI		May	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	-	
Jun 14	8:30 AM	PPI			May	-0.6%	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.6%	-	
Jun 14	8:30 AM	Retail Sales		May	-0.5%	0.2%	-0.2%	1.5%	1.4%	
Jun 14	8:30 AM	Retail Sales ex-auto	May	-0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	1.4%	1.1%	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	Business Inventories	Apr	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	Core CPI		May	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	-	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	CPI			May	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	-	
Jun 15	8:30 AM	NY Empire State Index	Jun	11.6	3.0	1.0	-11.1	-	
Jun 15	9:15 AM	Capacity Utilization	May	79.4%	79.3%	79.3%	79.1%	79.2%	
Jun 15	9:15 AM	Industrial Production	May	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%	
Jun 15	2:00 PM	Fed's Beige Book	-	-	-	-	-	-	
Jun 16	8:30 AM	Building Permits	May	2050K	2125K	2106K	2148K	2148K	
Jun 16	8:30 AM	Housing Starts		May	2009K	2100K	2050K	2005K	2038K	
Jun 16	8:30 AM	Initial Claims		06/11	333K	325K	330K	332K	330K	
Jun 16	12:00 PMPhiladelphia Fed	Jun	-2.2	10.0	10.0	7.3	-	
Jun 17	8:30 AM	Current Account	Q1	-$195.1B-$187.0B-$190.0B-$188.4B-$187.9B	
Jun 17	9:45 AM	Mich Sentiment-Prel.	Jun	94.8	89.0	88.8	86.9	-

[UpInArms]

30. 9:51 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,654.37 +75.72 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,098.44 +9.29 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,219.47 +8.51 (+0.70%)
10-Yr Bond 40.88 +0.12 (+0.29%)

NYSE Volume 558,870,000
Nasdaq Volume 540,322,000

9:40AM: Strong follow-through seen in stocks, as the market opens higher in anticipation of this year's first increase in consumer confidence... Within the next few minutes investors will get a preliminary read on June consumer sentiment (consensus 88.8)... Some of the early upside momentum may also be attributed to quarterly options expiration, in which stock and index futures and options all expire simultaneously...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Still shaping up to be a strong start for stocks, as a bullish bias remains intact... However, investors could see vigorous trading activity across the board as quadruple-witching options expiration may invite increased volatility

[RawMaterials]

34. 10:30 EST Numbers and Blather

Dow 10632.43 +53.78 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2090.05 +0.90 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1216.09 +5.13 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.090% +0.14

NYSE Volume 813,261,000
Nasdaq Volume 794,727,000



10:30AM: Equities still on the offensive as all ten economic sectors remain positive... Energy has paced the way higher amid rising oil prices, raised Q2 guidance from Valero Energy (VLO 79.46 +2..77) and reports that CNOOC is set to make a counter offer for Unocal (UCL 63.45 +1.99)... Technology, however, has only traded modestly higher, as gains in hardware struggle to offset weakness in disk drive, semiconductor and software...

The latter group has been under pressure after Adobe Systems (ADBE 30.98 -1.43) posted a disappointing outlook and disclosed a lawsuit related to its proposed acquisition of Macromedia (MACR 41.71 -1.92)... SOX -0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 1866/956, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1316/1275

10:00AM: Major indices spike higher following a stronger than expected preliminary read on consumer sentiment, but the market just as quickly returns to previous levels... June consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan index, has risen to 94.8, well above expectations of 88.8 and a May reading of 86.9... However, since the data don't correlate well with consumer spending trends and such an improvement was widely anticipated, the overall reaction has been somewhat muted given the market's bullish leanings lately...NYSE Adv/Dec 1873/694, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1445/956

9:40AM: Strong follow-through seen in stocks, as the market opens higher in anticipation of this year's first increase in consumer confidence... Within the next few minutes investors will get a preliminary read on June consumer sentiment (consensus 88.8)... Some of the early upside momentum may also be attributed to quarterly options expiration, in which stock and index futures and options all expire simultaneously...

[ozymandius]

40. the latest

12:08
Dow 10,608.88 +30.23 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,087.11 -2.04 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,214.56 +3.60 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 40.66 -0.10 (-0.25%)
NYSE Volume 1,227,001,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,162,051,000

11:30AM: Indices back of their best levels, as the blue chip indices and Nasdaq now trade in split fashion... The Composite, which is still up over 1.0% on the week, has recently slipped below the flat line amid further deterioration in the software space... The S&P, however, which has inched into positive territory for the year and is up roughly 1.5% for the week, has found strong leadership from the likes of GE (+1.1%), CVX (+1.1%) and EMC (+1.3%), as well as several homebuilders following Smith Barney's upgrade on S&P 500 constituents KBH (+7.8%) and PHM (+4.0%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1825/1177, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1322/1467

[ozymandius]

43. 1:10

Dow 10,612.87 +34.22 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,088.54 -0.61 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,215.03 +4.07 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.069% -0.01
NYSE Volume 1,398,111,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,307,034,000

[DoBotherMe]

44. KICK n/t

[ozymandius]

46. 2:56 numbers and blather

Dow 10,618.01 +39.36 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,088.26 -0.89 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,215.64 +4.68 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.078% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,774,638,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,583,481,000

2:30PM: More of the same for stocks, as the indices continue to show resilience in the face of rising oil prices... Even though crude oil futures have touched new intra-day highs around $58.60/bbl (+$2.02), surpassing the previous record of $58.28/bbl (April 4), investors so far appear somewhat comfortable with $50-60/bbl oil... Concern that U.S. refineries, despite operating at their highest levels (96.7%) since last July, will not be able to meet growing demand for gasoline has been the driving force behind today's 3.5% surge... NYSE Adv/Dec 2069/1134, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1469/1522

[RawMaterials]

48. In come the waves (housing Bubble)

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?

According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.

snip..

America's ratio of prices to rents is 35% above its average level during 1975-2000 (see chart 1). By the same gauge, property is “overvalued” by 50% or more in Britain, Australia and Spain. Rental yields have fallen to well below current mortgage rates, making it impossible for many landlords to make money.



Japan provides a nasty warning of what can happen when boom turns to bust. Japanese property prices have dropped for 14 years in a row, by 40% from their peak in 1991. Yet the rise in prices in Japan during the decade before 1991 was less than the increase over the past ten years in most of the countries that have experienced housing booms (see chart 3). And it is surely no coincidence that Japan and Germany, the two countries where house prices have fallen for most of the past decade, have had the weakest growth in consumer spending of all developed economies over that period. Americans who believe that house prices can only go up and pose no risk to their economy would be well advised to look overseas.




http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4079027

[ozymandius]

49. closing numbers

Dow 10,623.07 +44.42 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,090.11 +0.96 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,216.96 +6.00 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 40.78 +0.02 (+0.05%)
NYSE Volume 2,338,469,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,995,385,000

Jeez - look at the trading volume!

[ozymandius]

55. blather

Close: The major averages showed resilience in the face of oil prices hitting record highs, as this year's first increase in consumer confidence helped underpin a floor of buying support that closed virtually every sector in positive territory... The S&P 500 finished above last year's close for the first time since March 8 and the Dow finished at its best levels since March 18 while the Nasdaq, which eked out a slim gain, was still up 1.3% for the week...

Providing even further credence behind the broad-based move to the upside were huge volumes produced by the quarterly expiration of options, index options, futures and single stock futures, known as quadruple-witching... About 15 minutes after the market opened, June consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan index, rose a much better than expected 94.8 (consensus 88.8) versus a May reading of 86.9... Even though the data don't correlate well with consumer spending trends and such an improvement was widely anticipated, investors embraced the improved job market and easing of gasoline prices in recent months behind the index's first increase in 2005...

Speaking of gasoline, worries that U.S. refineries, despite operating at their highest levels (96.7%) since last July, will not be able to meet growing demand for gasoline sparked a 3.3% surge in oil prices... Crude oil futures ($58.47/bbl +$1.89), which closed at a new all-time high, also got a boost from a security threat at a U.S. consulate in Nigeria and reluctance on the part of traders to hold short positions in the commodity over the weekend...

[RawMaterials]

50. Twins

:toast:

have a good weekend marketers, ozy don't forget to turn out the lights on your way out. :hi:

[ozymandius]

52. Thanks! And have a great weekend too.

:toast: :beer: :toast: :beer: :toast: :beer: :toast: :beer:


See you Monday morning.

Ozy :hi:

[ozymandius]

51. Ex-Tyco Execs Convicted in Second Trial

NEW YORK - L. Dennis Kozlowski, accused of looting hundreds of millions of dollars from Tyco International Ltd. to fund a lavish lifestyle of parties and extravagant purchases, was convicted Friday of grand larceny and other charges.

A Manhattan State Supreme Court jury deliberated 11 days before convicting the former Tyco CEO and the conglomerate's former finance chief, Mark H. Swartz. The verdict came after a four-month trial; the pair face up to 30 years in prison on their convictions — the maximum sentence for both under the law, prosecutors said.

more