STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 14 June

[ozymandius]

Tuesday June 14, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 221 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 177 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 240 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1297
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 13, 2005

Dow... 10,522.56 +9.93 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,068.96 +5.96 (+0.29%)
S&P 500... 1,200.82 +2.71 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.09% +0.04 (+0.96%)
Gold future... 431.10 +1.80 (+0.42%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN,
Dollars and Loonie>


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country.
Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if
you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact
[e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions
Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

FIGHTING THE FATIGUE FACTOR

How many of you out there are bullish on the equity markets? Should I get defensive or go for growth? How about the junk bond or fixed income markets in general? Have any of you had your fill, already, of reports about the excesses of government – including the twin deficits and how unsustainable they are? How many times have you heard the argument that precious metals are the place to be? If you’re anything like moi, you have been inundated with more than your fair share of dire predictions about the economic future. I know I feel it as a writer covering it. Some days it’s difficult to write about. Other days it’s hard to even talk about. If you’re fully invested, there’s no doubt that some days you’re afraid to open your quarterly statement, turn on the T.V., or even look at a newspaper. That’s all part of the human condition. If you’ve been there, how many of you have second guessed yourselves or wondered whether or not you’ve done the right thing?

Don’t Worry, Be Happy….You’ve Got Company

If you see trouble brewing on the horizon, you’re in the esteemed company of none other than former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who just this past week reiterated negative prognostications about the economy going forward. Empirically, a great deal of those with whom I interact seem wary or confused. Many others seem to be gritting their teeth, some even holding their collective breaths – waiting for the inevitable to occur. The longer we wait, the more ‘the inevitable’ seems to resemble more of the same. It sometimes seems that the minute we concede things will never change, that’s exactly when something big usually happens.

If nothing seems to make economic sense to you, you’re not alone. None other than Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan seems to be able to make heads or tails of the interest rate environment we’re currently in – it’s the conundrum thing, you know? Fifteen years ago, surely no one associated with main stream economics would have believed that interest rate theory could be so difficult to decipher. Then again, 15 years ago there was no 200 - 300 trillion in unregulated notional interest rate derivatives overhanging the interest rate complex like there is today. Advocates and practitioners of technical analysis claim to possess some, if not all of the answers to these and other questions. How about stocks? Do you like them or hate them? Then there’s the latest craze, the housing market – bullishly booming or bubble beware?

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.82 Change -0.13 (-0.15%)

Dollar Is About To Lose Ground To Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1549&Itemid=39

EUR/USD – Euro bulls clashed once again with the dollar longs over the control of the psychologically important 1.2000 figure with the euro longs managing to retain the key level. As the pair remains supported above the 1.2100 figure, a possible retrace is in the works with euro traders aiming for 1.2500 handle. Indicators signal a maturing trend with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart at 42.43 Stochastic is treading below oversold line on the daily chart at 12.91, which is indicative of a trending market. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at 27.27. RSI is oversold on the daily chart at 16.23 with the 4-hour chart RSI is oversold line at 29.7. MACD remains deep below the zero line on the daily chart and is making a bullish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen defenses finally crumbled under the onslaught by the dollar longs as the pair retreated well above the 109.00 figure, but failed to reach the 110.figure, as yen drew aggressive buying around 109.60 level. As the pair remains above the 109.00 figure, dollar bulls will most likely attempt to push the pair above the 110.00 handle. A move by the yen traders will most likely see the pair test the bids around 108.88, a previous 2005 high and a point of a breakout. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 23.74. Stochastic is neutral on the daily chart at 70.21 with Stochastic on the 4-hour chart treading above the overbought line at 92.55, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is treading below the overbought line at 64.37 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart RSI overbought at 75.88. MACD has made a bullish crossover above the zero line on the daily chart, with MACD on the 4-hour chart treading well above the zero line.

...more...

Euro Bounces while Yen Teeters on Breakout

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1567&Itemid=39

Although Japanese economic data has continued to show steady albeit very slow economic improvement over the past few weeks, USD/JPY has inexorably moved higher reaching 109.60 in yesterday’s trade. What’s going on?

Ironically some analysts have blamed recent yen weakness on the poor performance of the euro. The reasoning goes as follows: with European assets declining sharply in value due to euro’s massive drop, many Japanese investors trimmed their European holdings and rotated back into American assets, driving USD/JPY higher as a result. The pair now stands perilously close to breaking it’s triple top and should it vaunt through the 110 level many dealers expect it to reach 112 soon thereafter. With the Fed expected to raise rates another 25bp higher in the June the greenback will enjoy a 325bp differential to the yen and the pair is likely to attract additional carry trade interest. We have been positive on the Japanese economy, believing that the country may have finally turned the corner from its protracted deflationary state, but if USD/JPY convincingly takes out the 110 figure the break out would have to be respected.

Meanwhile a listless session in the Euro-zone tonight as EUR/USD ranges between 1.2110 and 1.2140 levels, but true fireworks occurred during the US session yesterday when the pair hit a low of 1.2027 before short covering and bargain hunting pushed it back above the 1.2100 figure. If EUR/USD could hold yesterday’s lows, the sharpness of the bounce suggests that the pair may have made a temporary bottom as negative euro sentiment reached a crescendo. Tonight’s EU Construction Output data which saw the biggest decrease in 7 months was hardly euro bullish, but the single currency ignored the results with traders focusing on US PPY and Advanced Retail Trade numbers which are both projected to show month over month declines. With euro-pessimism seemingly exhausted for the time being, the market may turn back to trading off US fundamentals.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

(still have company - sporadic posting ongoing :D )

[UpInArms]

3. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jun 14	8:30 AM	Core PPI		May	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	-	
Jun 14	8:30 AM	PPI			May	-	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.6%	-	
Jun 14	8:30 AM	Retail Sales		May	-	0.2%	-0.2%	1.4%	-	
Jun 14	8:30 AM	Retail Sales ex-auto	May	-	0.4%	0.2%	1.1%	-

[UpInArms]

12. Reports coming in:

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. APRIL RETAIL SALES REVISED UP 1.5% VS. 1.4% PREV.

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS DN 0.2% VS 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES DOWN 0.5% VS. DOWN 0.1% EXPECTED

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. MAY PPI ENERGY PRICES DOWN 3.5%

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. MAY CORE PPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2 % EXPECTED

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. MAY PPI BIGGEST DROP SINCE APRIL 2003

8:30am 06/14/05 U.S. MAY PPI DOWN 0.6% VS. FALL 0.2% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. May retail sales down 0.5% vs. down 0.1% expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38517.3543300347-836678087&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell by a weaker-than-expected 0.5% in May, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales to fall by 0.1%. Excluding auto sales, retail sales fell 0.2%, slightly less than the 0.3% economists were expecting.

[UpInArms]

17. US May retail sales fall more than expected

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-06-14T123127Z_01_N14149760_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell a surprisingly large 0.5 percent in May, the biggest decline in nearly a year, as Americans bought fewer cars and cut back on clothing purchases, a government report showed on Tuesday.

The drop in retail sales was the largest since a matching decline last June, the Commerce Department said, and exceeded the 0.2 percent drop forecast by analysts. The decline was the first since last August and came on the heels of an upwardly revised 1.5 percent gain in April.

Excluding autos, which can swing widely from month to month, retail sales dropped 0.2 percent after an upwardly revised 1.4 percent jump in April. It was the first drop ex-autos since April of last year.

While the Federal Reserve has expressed confidence that an energy price-driven soft stretch earlier this year will prove short-lived, the weak retail sales number may be a sign U.S. consumer spending -- which fuels about two-thirds of economic output -- is faltering.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. U.S. May PPI down 0.6%, core up 0.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={3E5D37D2-636B-4480-945D-A78476580898}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. prices of raw materials and other producers' inputs fell 0.6% in May, the biggest monthly decline since April 2003, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Both food and energy prices fell in May. Excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI rose 0.1%. Economists were expecting the PPI to fall 0.2% and the core rate to rise 0.2%. Over the past year, the PPI has risen 3.5% and the core rate is up 2.6%. Further back in the production cycle, crude goods prices fell 2.0% in May, the largest drop since January. Intermediate goods prices fell 0.7% in May, the biggest decline in two years.

[UpInArms]

4. SEC launches formal OfficeMax probe

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD3FCDE6E%2D83AE%2D4691%2DA078%2DB48AE99F8C5F%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- OfficeMax Inc. said Tuesday the Securities and Exchange Commission launched a formal investigation into the office products retailer's accounting issues.

OfficeMax (OMX: news, chart, profile) , based in Itasca, Ill., completed an internal investigation in March 2005 in which it determined that employees falsified documents to claim promotional payments from an undisclosed vendor in 2003 and 2004.

In connection with the investigation, OfficeMax, the nation's third-largest office products retailer by sales, discovered that earnings for the first three quarters of 2004 were overstated by $4.3 million. Six employees were fired as a result.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Friedman Billings ups crude price forecast

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38517.315960625-836675914&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Friedman Billings raised its crude price forecasts on the belief that strong economic growth and uncertainty over whether global supply will meet demand will offset recent increases in global inventory levels. Analyst Jacques Rousseau also feels that significant new petrochemical capacity, the building of reserves in China and refinery downtime in the U.S. related to diesel fuel upgrades will help put upward pressure on prices. His 2005 West Texas Intermediate estimate was lifted to $51 from $44 and the 2006 forecast was raised to $47 from $40. Rousseau also raised his earnings estimates for the integrated oil sector, and upgraded Amerada Hess (AHC) to market perform from underperform and lifted his stock price target to $109 from $103. He raised his price targets for Murphy Oil (MRO) to $59 from $58 and for Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to $91 from $82. July crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were last down 41 cents at $55.21.

[UpInArms]

6. OPEC short of ammunition against oil spike

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8784132&src=rss/businessNews

VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC's inability to tackle high oil prices was underlined on Tuesday when its biggest producer Saudi Arabia said real supplies would not rise despite a plan to increase official quota limits.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali-al Naimi said Riyadh had informed its customers of export allocations for July that mean keeping output steady at 9.5 million barrels a day.

Meeting on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is considering lifting output quotas by 500,000 barrels a day, 2 percent, to 28 million bpd.

But even OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah of Kuwait admits the move is little more than a political gesture to consumer countries worried that oil prices are impeding world economic growth.

...more...

(oops! wrong headline)

[ozymandius]

8. Yay! Sixty bucks a barrel - here we come.

:eyes:

Just a political gesture is all we can expect. It's like a bad martial arts movie. The audio says, "We are going to raise production." But the moving lips say say, "We are going to raise prices you western pigdogs."

[UpInArms]

10. LOL!

:rofl:

But the moving lips say say, "We are going to raise prices you western pigdogs."

Elton John song running in my head now -

"I've seen that movie, too."

[UpInArms]

7. Oil firmly above $55 on winter fear

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8781672&src=rss/businessNews

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices sat tight above $55 a barrel on Tuesday on concerns over the world's ability to make enough diesel and heating oil ahead of the winter and as OPEC appeared powerless to turn back the rally.

U.S. July light sweet crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) traded down 14 cents to $55.48 a barrel by 0716 GMT, barely denting Monday's $2.08 surge, which took prices to their highest level in seven weeks.

"The increase in U.S. diesel demand, which is boosted by the strong economy, is sparking exceptional concerns on heating oil supplies," said Hiroyuki Sato, general manager of crude oil and products acquisiton at refiner Japan Energy Corp.

Traditionally, demand for distillates -- including heating oil -- becomes the guiding factor only in the fourth quarter, after the summer gasoline season ends.

But below-average inventories of the product and already stretched global refining capacity has thrown distillates into the spotlight early this year, pushing prices within a few cents of the record highs touched in early April.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. SnowJob spewing - cold wind blowing?

China over-invests in tradeable sector-U.S. Snow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-14T115916Z_01_BRU003492_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHINA-INVESTMENT.XML

BRUSSELS, June 14 (Reuters) - China is over-investing in the tradeable sector and spending too little on the non-tradeable sector, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday.

"The Chinese economy is over-investing in the tradeable sector and under-investing in the non-tradeable sector," he told a meeting at the Centre for European Policy Studies think-tank.

...more...

Snow says flexible yuan would help world economy

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-14T114046Z_01_BRU003490_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SNOW-CHINA-URGENT.XML

BRUSSELS, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday that the world economy would benefit from a more flexible Chinese yuan exchange rate.

"Flexibility in its (China's) currency so it gets price signals right will help it and the global economy function better," Snow said during a meeting at the Centre for European Policy Studies think-tank.

<snip>

"It is our clear purpose to control spending," he said, adding the world economy was "in a sweet spot".

...more at link...

U.S. Snow declines to comment on exchange rates

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-06-14T120548Z_01_BRU003493_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-CURRENCIES-URGENT.XML

BRUSSELS, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow refused to comment on exchange rates when asked during a meeting at Brussels-based think-tank on Tuesday.

Earlier, asked about the euro, he said he never comments on other currencies. However, he did say he believed the world economy would benefit from a more flexible Chinese yuan exchange rate.

...very short snewsblurb...

[ozymandius]

16. What, pray tell, is a tradeable sector?

The name sounds familiar to me - but you never know if Snowjob is just making stuff up again.

[RawMaterials]

11. Rising home costs a growing concern

Theypleand middle-income workers increasingly strapped by prices

Even though home ownership is at an all-time high, soaring costs and relatively flat wages make affordability a growing problem for millions of low- and moderate-income workers, according to a Harvard study released Monday.

snip..

“People are desperate,” Retsinas said. “They are afraid they are going to miss out and they are only thinking of one thing: What is the minimum payment I can make and still afford this house next year?”

The center’s study also points to what it calls the worsening problem of affordability, especially among lower- and middle-income workers

One-third of households spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing, and more than one in eight spends more than 50 percent. The number of such cost-burdened household jumped by 5 million from 2000 to 2003, the center calculates.

more...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8175152/

[RawMaterials]

18. Hot home market a blessing and a curse

Roughly one in eight of U.S. households now devote at least half of their income to housing costs, says a study by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. One in three devote a third of their income to housing, a tad more than banks prefer. (Related charts: What the housing market means to you)

The median price of an existing single-family home rose 7.7% to $184,100 last year, the study said.

snip..

But it also chronicled a laundry list of data that suggest some homeowners may be making bigger trade-offs than they realize.

The home-buying boom, the report says, has been spurred in large part by creative financing options, such as interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer lower monthly payments in the early years of the loan.

"Some buyers are taking more risk than they think," says Tony Ogorek, principal of Ogorek Capital Management.

They could get burned if the economy worsens or interest rates rise sharply.


http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2005-06-13-housing_x.htm

[ozymandius]

15. pre-open blather

8:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Cash market appears poised for a modestly positive start as better than expected earnings news and guidance from Best Buy (BBY) and a welcome decision by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to split its PC and printer divisions have acted as sources of support... A stronger trading cue will be provided at 08:30 ET, however, with the release of the Retail Sales and PPI reports for May...

Economists are expecting a 0.2% decline in Retail Sales, but a 0.2% increase ex-auto; for PPI, the market is expecting a 0.2% decline, but core-PPI is projected to be up 0.2%

[ozymandius]

19. 9:48 numbers

Dow 10,556.55 +33.99 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,073.91 +4.95 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,203.09 +2.27 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 40.96 +0.10 (+0.24%)

NYSE Volume 131,098,000
Nasdaq Volume 132,609,000

[RawMaterials]

20. U.K. Inflation Rate Holds at Seven-Year High in May

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. inflation held at a seven-year high in May as prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks increased, damping expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this year.

Consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, the government's statistics office said today in London, unchanged from April. Inflation was expected to slow to 1.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Prices rose 0.4 percent from April.

snip..

``This is going to push back some people's expectations of a rate cut this year,'' said Gavin Redknap, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. ``It's allied to King's comments last night -- clearly the Bank is worried about inflation.'' Redknap doesn't expect the bank to reduce rates until February next year.

The implied rate on the interest-rate futures contract maturing in December rose to 4.63 percent as of 10:15 a.m. in London, from 4.62 percent before the inflation report was released. The pound was little changed against the dollar at $1.8095.

snip..

Domestic Spending

Signs that domestic spending is cooling are easing concerns about price increases. The central bank on May 11 trimmed its forecast for economic growth this year to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent and said a slowdown in consumer spending has ``become more marked.''

Economic growth in the U.K., Europe's second biggest economy, cooled to 0.5 percent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, the slowest pace in almost two years and the same as the 12 euro nations. British retailers experienced the worst May on record, the London-based British Retail Consortium said on June 7.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aLSI_sJGaiKU&refer=top_world_news

[ozymandius]

21. no 10am bounce

Dow 10,549.19 +26.63 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,072.69 +3.73 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,203.02 +2.20 (+0.18%)]
10-Yr Bond 41.09 +0.23 (+0.56%)
NYSE Volume 218,718,000
Nasdaq Volume 201,247,000

[ozymandius]

24. and blather

9:40AM: A modestly positive start, yet participants look to be taking their time getting involved in the proceedings... A notable exception in that regard is Best Buy (BBY 64.75, +5.63), which is soaring in active trading after the consumer electronics retailer delivered a fantastic Q1 (May) earnings report.... BBY topped the consensus EPS estimate by $0.21 and raised its EPS outlook for FY06 to $3.10-3.25 from $2.95-3.10...

Lehman Bros. (LEH 93.44, +0.39) was another notable reporter today, but the reaction to its better than expected Q2 (May) profit of $2.26 per share (consensus $2.23) has been tepid at best as investors had been hoping for more upside in light of the firm's recent earnings history... Over the past four quarters, LEH has topped consensus EPS estimates by an average of $0.31.

[Maeve]

27. 10:30 lull morelike

Dow 10,532.15 +9.59 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,066.94 -2.02 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,201.83 +1.01 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 40.95 +0.09 (+0.22%)
NYSE Volume 452,118,000
Nasdaq Volume 395,834,000

[ozymandius]

29. 10:30 blather

10:30AM: Not the most scintillating trading action to begin the day as the indices haven't ventured too far from the unchanged mark... There are some individual moves of note, though, like Best Buy (BBY 65.59, +6.47), which duly impressed the Street with its fiscal Q1 (May) earnings report, and General Motors (GM 35.51, +1.06), which is running on reports the company has informed the UAW that an agreement to cut health care costs is needed by the end of this month...

Separately, it has been noted that Richmond Fed President Lacker has remarked this morning that he is pleased with inflation expectations, but that he believes it is too early to say where rates will stop... Fed Governor Bies, meanwhile, has indicated, according to Reuters, that regulators worry that in "the inevitable downturn," credit quality could deteriorate to the extent that some banks would experience significant losses...NYSE Adv/Dec 1568/1216, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1420/1107

[RawMaterials]

22. China May Retail Sales Climb 12.8%, Gathering Pace

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales rose at a faster pace in May as higher incomes spurred spending on products including Tsingtao Brewery Co. beer, Hitachi Ltd. televisions and General Motors Corp. cars.

Sales increased 12.8 percent from a year earlier to 489.9 billion yuan ($59 billion), after climbing 12.2 percent in April, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said today on its Web site. Restaurant sales surged 20 percent, vehicle receipts rose 15 percent and garment sales climbed 19 percent.

Rising consumer spending is helping sustain growth in the world's seventh-largest economy, which expanded 9.5 percent last year, as the government restricts investment in manufacturing and real estate. Premier Wen Jiabao may take more steps to boost farm incomes and discourage saving because household demand is not growing fast enough, economists including Zuo Xiaolei said.

snip..

More Spending Needed

``If no one is buying goods that are being produced, you'll get excess capacity, deflation, rising non-performing loans at the banks and falling returns on investment,'' said Huang Yiping, a Hong Kong-based economist at Citigroup Inc., who had the most accurate forecast in a Bloomberg survey. ``To some extent this is already happening in manufactured goods.''

Chinese consumer prices of clothing, household appliances and telecommunications products declined every month since May 1999, government figures show. China's banks had 1.83 trillion yuan of bad loans, or 12.4 percent of total lending, as of March 31. Earnings growth at companies listed on China's yuan- denominated A-share market fell to less than 10 percent in the first quarter, from 44 percent a year earlier, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

more..


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=asmN3t6ftsl0&refer=top_world_news

[RawMaterials]

23. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Fall; Fed Still Seen Raising Target Rate

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell as some investors said reports showing a drop in producer prices and retail sales for May left intact expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to raise its interest-rate target.

``The Fed has to keep moving,'' said Kevin Barry, who as managing director of global fixed-income at Credit Suisse Asset Management in New York oversees about $6 billion. ``The yield on the 10 year note will stay above 4 percent and we're looking for 5 percent by the end of the year.''

Ten-year notes are down for a fifth day, the longest slide this year. Fed policy makers next meet on interest rates June 29-30, and futures contracts show traders expect the target rate for overnight loans between banks to rise to 3.25 percent from 3 percent. Ten-year notes fell in each of the past four days on speculation yields don't reflect the likely pace rate increases.

snip..

The price of the 4 1/8 percent note due in May 2015 was little changed at 100 1/4, after initially surging about 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald. Ten-year securities are more sensitive to changes in inflation expectations than shorter-maturity debt.

Ten-year notes yield 1.09 percentage points above the Fed's target rate for overnight loans between banks of 3 percent, compared with the average this decade of 1.89 percentage points. An increase in the Fed's rate of 25 basis points at the end of this month would put that gap at about 83 basis points, the narrowest since 2001.


more..


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

[RawMaterials]

25. Employers not ready to fatten payrolls

Thirty-one percent of the survey respondents expect to boost hiring in the upcoming quarter, relatively unchanged from 30 percent last year, and 6 percent of the employers forecast a drop in hiring, unchanged from last year.

"This indicates that employers are hiring on an as-needed basis, but are still not ready to staff up until demand for their business truly requires it," Manpower CEO Jeffrey Joerres said.

snip..

Outlook best in the South

The findings show that if you're looking for work, head South for the most promising prospects. Leading hiring in the region are the following sectors: transportation/public utilities; education; construction; non-durable goods manufacturing; and wholesale/retail.

Thirty-two percent of southern employers expect to bump up hiring, and when seasonal data is taken into account, the region has the strongest employment outlook, according to the survey.

The Midwest has the gloomiest forecast in the country.

Twenty-eight percent of employers expect to take on new workers, and when adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, employers in this region expect a slowdown in hiring from last year.

In the Northeast and West, hiring expectations haven't changed much from last year.



http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/14/news/economy/manpower_survey/index.htm

[RawMaterials]

26. Dollar Upside Threatens Earnings

Just a few months ago, the doomsday crowd was crowing about the weakening dollar, which was portrayed as a grave threat to the U.S. economy while being blamed for stubbornly high oil prices and rising import costs. Now that the greenback has defied conventional wisdom and rallied sharply, there's something new for investors to worry about: the bite a stronger dollar will take from S&P 500 profits.

Defying Wall Street's consensus forecasts for the dollar to decline by 10% this year, the buck has so far rallied about 3% against major currencies. Intraday Monday, the dollar hit highs for the year against the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and yen before giving back some of the gains. The euro was at $1.2109 late Monday, a nine-month low, after touching $1.2060 intraday and threatening to break below the key $1.20 level.


snip..

If the dollar merely maintains its year-to-date gains, the consensus operating EPS for 2005 for the S&P 500 would fall to $72.80 from $74.50, according to Rosenberg. In terms of comparisons, year-on-year growth would fall to 7.6% from 10%. That's because more than 30% of S&P 500 companies' revenue comes from their overseas operations.
"More to the point -- if the dollar doesn't begin to falter again, we are at risk of a downward adjustment to earnings, and what our research shows is that investors may be lulled into a false sense of security thinking this market is attractive with an estimated 2006 P/E of 14.6 times when in fact the dollar's move actually means that investors are likely paying for a more neutral multiple of 16 times," the economist commented.

snip..




Opinion : Nick Godt Email This Story Print This Story

Dollar Upside Threatens Earnings
Page 2

A 'Significant Effect'

Until there's evidence -- i.e., profit warnings -- that some companies have been hit, the dollar factor will likely be sidelined. But Wall Street analysts may discretely and progressively start taking down their numbers. And with the second quarter well under way, dollar jitters and profit warnings could arrive sooner than expected.

As mentioned here Friday, Morgan Stanley recently conducted a survey of the companies in its coverage universe and found that fully 55% of those surveyed said they expect dollar strength to depress their earnings "somewhat."

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comment/nickgodt/10227801.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[Roland99]

28. GM keeps the Dow positive

Carmaker said to be negotiating cut in health care costs
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?tmn_id={22E47A85-8A1A-40E5-9A61-9D500CA4C866}

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks traded mixed Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforming as General Motors shares rallied on a report the car marker is actively seeking to reduce its health care costs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) was up 11 points at 10,533.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ) dipped 1 point to 2,067 while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) was up 1 points at 1,201.79

"PPI was reassuring while retail sales were a little disappointing. If we could get some bigger volume, we could feel a little bit better," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co. "But I still think you're going to see a summer rally.

Within the Dow industrials, General Motors Corp. (GM) rallied 4.5% to $36 after the Detroit News reported that the financially-beleaguered auto maker is seeking health care concessions from the United Auto Workers union, possibly by the end of the month.

Healthcare concessions, eh? Sounds like increased premiums, copays, and deductibles for the workers, eh?

[RawMaterials]

30. 11:30 Market Update and Blather

Dow 10530.00 +7.44 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2066.12 -2.84 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1201.70 +0.88 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.110% +0.24

NYSE Volume 621,685,000
Nasdaq Volume 521,559,000



11:30AM: More of the same with the indices trudging along in indecisive fashion... It is overstating things to say that the tech sector (-0.2%) is weak today, but on a relative basis, it is the laggard of note at this juncture that is acting as a restraint on the broader market... Concerns the sector has gotten ahead of itself have stood in the way of follow through buying interest... Separately, crude futures (-$0.12 at $55.50), which surged 3.9% on Monday, are little changed ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting in Vienna...Nasdaq 100 -0.3, SOX -0.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1662/1267, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1378/1301

11:00AM: Major indices have been confined to narrow trading ranges that have kept them fairly close to the unchanged mark since the session began... Just not a lot of convincing leadership to be found at the moment as the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.8%) is the biggest mover to this point; the other nine economic sectors have gains and/or losses ranging from -0.20% to +0.20%... Within the Dow, General Motors (GM 35.58, +1.13) tops the list of winning issues while Altria Group (MO 66.89, -1.43) brings up the rear...

The latter component is on the defensive following news the Illinois Supreme Court won't be announcing the Price "Lights" decision on June 16... Smith Barney thinks this likely means a decision isn't likely until the court reconvenes in September and has noted that it expects MO to be weak over the next few days as a result... NYSE Adv/Dec 1624/1280, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1359/1279

[barb162]

31. hey ozymandius

will you correct something at the top of the post

Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2


if they are in handcuffs, they had to be convicted

[Roland99]

35. Not if they haven't gone to trial or were acquitted.

[barb162]

36. cool, mea culpa

[Maeve]

32. 12:12 update on a dramamine day

Dow 10,540.36 +17.80 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,066.74 -2.22 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,202.76 +1.94 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 41.18 +0.32 (+0.78%)

12:00PM: The market received a batch of mixed economic data this morning, and fittingly, it has traded in mixed fashion throughout the morning... The data of note included the Retail Sales and PPI reports for May... The former came up short of consensus estimates while the latter was better than the market expected... As always, though, one needs to look beyond the headlines for a final analysis... Having done so, it is Briefing.com's conclusion that the retail sales data aren't as disappointing as one might think...
To that end, we would draw our readers' attention to the fact that April retail sales, ex-auto, were revised up to 1.4% from 1.1%... Therefore, a 0.2% decline, ex-auto, in May simply reflects a natural cooldown from the very hot April pace... As for the PPI report, the market was correct to view it as encouraging, as the core rate, which excludes food and energy, rose just 0.1% to leave a yr/yr increase of 2.6%... Over the past four months, however, the core-rate of inflation is running at an annual rate of just 1.8%... What this suggests is that inflation at the producer level is well-contained...

Be that as it may, the Treasury market has fallen off today, with the yield on the 10-yr note climbing to 4.11%... The backup in rates from a post-employment report low of 3.89% has been cited as an inhibiting factor for the stock market over the past few sessions... One can also cite a lack of convincing sector leadership as another reason - something that has proven to be the case again today... In essence, the Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%) and Health Care (+0.7%) sectors are the only areas exhibiting any notable strength; otherwise, the gains and/or losses in the remaining 8 economic sectors have been quite modest in scope...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[Maeve]

34. 12:52--minimal change this hour

Dow 10,543.12 +20.56 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,066.33 -2.63 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,203.11 +2.29 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 41.19 +0.33 (+0.81%)
NYSE Volume 857,927,000
Nasdaq Volume 716,377,000

12:25PM: No change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway... The indices are still mixed and are vacillating in a narrow range... The tech sector (-0.35%) continues to drift lower and will be an important area to watch for directional cues as afternoon trading progresses... Tomorrow the market will direct its attention to the Consumer Price Index report... It is perhaps the most important piece of data this week as participants are looking for inflationary readings at the consumer level to serve as a guidepost for Fed members in setting monetary policy...

[ozymandius]

37. still sawing wood at 1:09

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Dow 10,536.22 +13.66 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,065.34 -3.62 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,202.41 +1.59 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 41.22 +0.36 (+0.88%)

NYSE Volume 900,790,000
Nasdaq Volume 753,690,000

1:00PM: Today's trading action is the epitome of being caught in the summer doldrums as the major indices have traded in extremely narrow ranges all day... For the Dow, 37 points is all that separates the industrial average between its high and low today; for the Nasdaq, the range is 9 points; and for the S&P, it is just 4 points... Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%) remains the focal point of buyers...

On another level, its outperformance, following what some are suggesting was a disappointing Retail Sales report for May, indicates that today's participants aren't bothered by the idea that a decline in retail sales in May is the start of a more meaningful slowdown in consumer spending... If anything, most are simply viewing it as a natural pullback following a strong April, as well as a natural consequence of the cool weather in May that restricted sales of seasonal merchandise... NYSE Adv/Dec 1786/1313, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1460/1340

[DoBotherMe]

33. KICK n/t

[ozymandius]

38. marginally slow trading volume today - yet it climbs

2:04
Dow 10,576.27 +53.71 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,071.62 +2.66 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,206.60 +5.78 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 41.17 +0.31 (+0.76%)
NYSE Volume 1,088,672,000
Nasdaq Volume 909,648,000

2:00PM: The major indices have gotten a booster shot in the past half hour... There hasn't been any specific news item that we're aware of to account for the uptick, but the unexpected spike has served as a reminder that there is often some increased volatility leading up to a quarterly options expiration, which is what will transpire this Friday...

Whatever the cause, the Dow and S&P are sitting near their best levels of the day with the gains being spearheaded by the likes of General Motors (GM 35.88, +1.43), Wal-Mart (WMT 49.47, +1.19), Pfizer (PFE 28.37, +0.48), Best Buy (BBY 67.30, +8.18), Target (TGT 54.58, +1.25) and Lowe's (LOW)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1788/1355, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1485/1377

1:30PM: Mixed activity with a downward drift being led by the tech sector... On that note, the tech sector was down 0.3% at mid-day, but is now down 0.6%... Again, that isn't a sizeable decline, but on a lackluster day like today, it stands out as a source of weakness...

The S&P industry groups contributing to the tech pullback include computer storage (-2.0%), application software (-1.20%), and semiconductors (-1.00%)... Outside of the pockets of weakness, other S&P laggards include the tobacco (-1.60%), gold (-1.50%), wireless services (-1.80%), and education services (-2.00%) groups... NYSE Adv/Dec 1767/1354, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1436/1398

[Maeve]

39. The cause is the usual one--NDGR

No Damn Good Reason! :D

[RawMaterials]

40. 3:24 Market Update and Blather

Dow 10552.41 +29.85 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2067.25 -1.71 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1204.11 +3.29 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.127% +0.41

NYSE Volume 1,405,041,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,186,257,000



3:30PM: Market is trying to perk up as the close approaches.... It is difficult to put much credence in any move, though, given the thin trading conditions at the NYSE and Nasdaq... It is worth noting that the Health Care sector (+0.90%) has pulled even with Consumer Discretionary (+0.90%) as the lead horse pulling the blue chip averages higher...

Factors contributing to the outperformqance of the Health Care sector today include its defensive profile, as well as Mylan Labs' (MYL 19.53, +1.83) providing encouraging earnings guidance and announcing that it is increasing its share buyback and doubling its dividend.... Additionally, Banc of America raised its price target on WellPoint (WLP 69.67, +1.17) to $80 from $70 while Eli Lilly (LLY 57.74, +0.44) and Alkermes (ALKS 12.80, +0.55) received good news about their Phase 2 clinical study for inhaled insulin... NYSE Adv/Dec 1954/1264, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1559/1400

3:00PM: Indices remain stuck in their respective ranges as buyers and sellers alike show little conviction... As a reminder, there is an OPEC meeting tomorrow in Vienna and it has been noted in press reports today that ministers will be considering a plan to endorse two increases to production quotas... On that note, it is widely believed OPEC will agree to at least a 500K barrel per day increase in production quotas...

Talk regarding the possibility of a second increase took some steam out of crude futures, which have slipped $0.62 today to $55.00/bbl, but given that they haven't fallen to a larger degree, and that the stock market continues to languish, it can be argued that there isn't much confidence in OPEC's ability to curtail rising prices given underlying concerns that OPEC lacks the spare production capacity to do so...NYSE Adv/Dec 1897/1288, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1504/1424

2:30PM: The indices have retraced the majority of the gains they logged near the top of the hour... The Nasdaq continues to lag its blue chip counterparts, but overall, it is the small-caps that are taking a point position on the performance curve... To wit, the Russell 2000 is up 0.4% today versus gains of 0.2% for the Dow and S&P, respectively... Conversely, the Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) is on the other end of the performance spectrum as participants have taken little interest in the big-cap tech shares...

That helps explain why the Nasdaq is showing a slight loss at the moment despite an A/D line that favors advancers by nearly a 4-to-3 margin... NYSE Adv/Dec 2019/1149, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1610/1289

[RawMaterials]

41. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10547.57 +25.01 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2069.03 +0.07 (+0.00%)
S&P 500 1203.91 +3.09 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.127% +0.41

NYSE Volume 1,682,792,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,405,601,000



Close Dow +25.01 at 10547.57, S&P +3.09 at 1203.91, Nasdaq +0.07 at 2069.03: Despite some notable economic data in the form of the Retail Sales and Producer Price Index reports for May, and better than expected earnings news from the likes of Best Buy (BBY 67.80, +8.68) and Lehman Bros. (LEH 96.05, +3.00), the major indices moved in laborious fashion Tuesday, holding close to the unchanged mark for the majority of the session... Altogether the trading action was uneventful and provided a firsthand glimpse at what the phrase "summer doldrums" means...

The vapid showing was striking when taking into account that the combination of a worse than expected Retail Sales report and a better than expected PPI report provided a good economic mix that reinforced the notion that the Fed's tightening action should be nearing its end... Enthusiasm was held in check, however, by the realization that the Consumer Price Index - a more telling inflation report for Fed officials - was going to be released before Wednesday's open... Additionally, the market was buffeted by a lack of participation from the technology sector (-0.50%) and a lack of concerted buying interest in other economic sectors...

Some exceptions in the latter regard included the Consumer Discretionary (+1.0%) and Health Care (+0.80%) sectors, which rode the coattails of Best Buy and Mylan Labs (MYL 19.58, +1.88), both of which increased their EPS outlook for the current fiscal year... Best Buy, in particular, generated a bid in a host of other retailers that spearheaded the Consumer Discretionary's sector's outperformance...

Other standouts in that space included General Motors (GM 35.87, +1.42), which reportedly informed the UAW that an agreement to cut health care costs is needed by the end of this month, and Ford (F 10.82, +0.30), which jumped in response to Monday's late-breaking news its Hertz unit is planning an IPO... By and large, big moves in Tuesday's session were reserved for individual stocks like these and Lehman Bros.... The investment bank topped the Q2 (May) consensus EPS estimate of $2.23 by three cents and rallied as investors cheered the news, deeming it better than feared after Morgan Stanley's (MWD 50.60, -0.28) Q2 warning on Monday... Separately, the Treasury market spent most of its day on the defensive in a move that pundits attributed to a curve trade taking precedence over what would typically be considered to be supportive economic data...

To that end, Retail Sales in May slipped 0.5% (consensus -0.2%) and sales, ex-auto, declined 0.2% (consensus +0.2%); meanwhile, PPI fell -0.6% (consensus -0.2%) while core-PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased just 0.1% (consensus +0.2%)...The 10-yr note shed 4 ticks, sending its yield up to 4.11%... As a reminder, the CPI report will be a focal point before Wednesday's open, but attention will eventually shift to OPEC's meeting in Vienna where it is expected the cartel will agree to a 500K barrel per day increase in production quotas... NYSE Adv/Dec 2051/1188, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1739/1248

3:30PM : Market is trying to perk up as the close approaches.... It is difficult to put much credence in any move, though, given the thin trading conditions at the NYSE and Nasdaq... It is worth noting that the Health Care sector (+0.90%) has pulled even with Consumer Discretionary (+0.90%) as the lead horse pulling the blue chip averages higher...

Factors contributing to the outperformqance of the Health Care sector today include its defensive profile, as well as Mylan Labs' (MYL 19.53, +1.83) providing encouraging earnings guidance and announcing that it is increasing its share buyback and doubling its dividend.... Additionally, Banc of America raised its price target on WellPoint (WLP 69.67, +1.17) to $80 from $70 while Eli Lilly (LLY 57.74, +0.44) and Alkermes (ALKS 12.80, +0.55) received good news about their Phase 2 clinical study for inhaled insulin... NYSE Adv/Dec 1954/1264, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1559/1400