Alaska scientist warns of impact of permafrost thaw

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N25437296.htm

ANCHORAGE, May 25 (Reuters) - A warming climate has heated much of Alaska's permafrost to temperatures just below freezing and drastic changes are expected in the coming decades as that layer of frozen soil thaws, a prominent scientist said on Wednesday.

Vladimir Romanovsky, an associate professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute said the impact is already apparent. In Fairbanks a path has buckled into undulating waves, houses are slumping into thawed ground and stands of birch trees are toppling as dying forested areas melt into swamps. snip

Because permafrost holds methane, the thaw will also accelerate the climate-warming greenhouse effect created by gases in the atmosphere "This methane will be released into the atmosphere, adding directly to the greenhouse gases," Romanovsky said.

[PartyPooper]

1. I'll bet there's a huge mosquito problem because of this, too.

I understand the buggers up there are GIGANTIC anyway.

:scared:

[Zorbuddha]

2. Methane is 10x as bad as CO2

as a greenhouse gas.

Buckle up.

[htuttle]

3. Interestingly enough, there is a degree of self correction

Once the permafrost thaws, and all that methane goes into the atmosphere, it could warm the Earth enough to melt something big like the West Antarctic ice shelf. That would cause ocean levels to rise enough to wipe out all of the coastal cities around the world.

Since much of our industry, economy and population is centered around coastal cities, human civilization will be set back a few hundred years at best and a thousand at worst, not to mention the billion deaths due to floods, disease and famine during a period like this.

The resulting economic disruption will dramatically slow the generation of greenhouse gases by humans, and slow global warming, hence, there's a self correcting mechanism. It involves us dying off in vast numbers.

[sleipnir]

5. Problem is, that it won't happen overnight.

It will be a 20-30 year long process of flooding. By which point, most of everyone will have packed up and moved in-land. Also, bringing all those fun, little industrial factories with them or just rebuilding!

The truth is, no one knows what is going to happen. There are many different interpretations of the current climate change. Some scientists say that we are mearly coming out of a mini-ice age that started in the late 1700's. Others believe that we are about to enter a drastic cooling period, potentially starting in the next decade or so and leading to another gigantic glacial period, like the Wisconsion Glacial Stage about 20k ago. Still others hold that we are destined for a future that like Mercury, with a dense atmosphere of water, so hot that metals melt on the surface.

[Eloriel]

6. Nobody knows what's going to happen, but I've been amazed at

how right on the predictions have been so far. Chillingly accurate, really.

[Benhurst]

12. But the birds survive. The Age of Dinosaurs continues, after a

rude interruption of 10 -- 20,000 years.

[mom cat]

13. Unfortunately all the polar bears will be dead before people are finished

destroying the earth.

[joeunderdog]

15. Thanks for cheering us up. I feel much better now.

This Global Warming shit is just a bunch of unrelated scientists from around the world conspiring to cause economic hardship on the spoiled american billionaires, so I'm not buying it.

Warm up the hummer, we're goin muddin!

[Cronus Protagonist]

4. We need to mine the methane, then

And find ways to convert it to power and contain the gases. Shouldn't be too hard to do.

[kineneb]

7. long, long ago, in a junior high science class, far away,

I learned about the -ane chain which went something like this:

methane
ethane
propane
butane
pentane
hexane
...and so on

I don't remember the chemistry involved, but all of them are volitile and some (propane, butane) are common energy sources. Seems to me, that methane could be used just like propane is, as a burnable gas for heat, etc. Did I miss something somewhere, or what?

[XemaSab]

14. They're all carbon chains

Methane is CH4, Ethane is C2H6, Propane is C3H8...

Hydrogen and carbon, hence the name "hydrocarbons."

Methane can be used like propane or octane, but the devil is in the details... usually it takes more energy to harvest natural methane than you get out of it. To harvest methane seeping from thousands of miles of tundra, you'd basically have to put impermeable plastic sheeting or some other cover over the whole shebang, and it wouldn't be worth the time or the money to harvest.

[kineneb]

17. I wasn't thinking of "harvesting" it

more like capturing all the gas we produce as part of the sewage stream. So at least we don't add to the mess. In another science class, also long ago, we looked at a methane "well" design from India. In goes sewage, it is digested by anarobic bacteria, and at the end of the process, you wind up with fertilizer and methane gas. One makes the gardens grow and the other is used for cooking. It was all passive and looked simple to do.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

8. I don't think it's that simple

From what I understand the gases in permafrost are in the form of gas hydrates. They are actually a water and gas substance that is combined. It's not as if there are pockets of gas in the permafrost but rather the gas is mixed in.

[vajraroshana]

9. I think it would be hard

from the little I know and have read. It's not "point-source" methane vent-like stuff that you could build something on top of and capture; it's more like methane escaping (evaporation might be a good analogy) as the permafrost thaws and decomposes and it's on the scale of hundreds and hundreds of thousands of acres.

It's definitely going to be "interesting" in the next few years.

[jus_the_facts]

10. here's a link to PBS Scientific American Frontiers w/ Alan Alda.....

....which has shown a few programs about this already happening...extremely informative shows listed on this page.


http://pbs-saf.virage.com/cgi-bin/visearch?user=pbs-saf&template=template.html&query=permafrost+ClipCategory%3A%27earth+science%27&category=ClipCategory%3A%27earth+science%27&viKeyword=permafrost&submit=Search&page=3

[radfringe]

11. bush* and his choir

will call this "junk science" and toss some more money to their GOP (Gas - Oil - Petroleum) buddies

[CHIMO]

16. The Effects

Are diverse.
If one builds on permafrost then you have to prevent the structure from melting the ground. So we have structures that are built on ground that will be turning from a frozen solid into a putty. So just imagine the insurance policies now. Sort of like Florida with hurricanes I would imagine.

As for the methane that will be escaping, think of the analogy of a match box full of matches. Once it gets to a certain temperature, once one match goes off, it is an irreversible process. One can not stop it. So that's the way it goes, if the model is correct. There is no turning back.