Europe Expected to Get Tough With Iran

[chlamor]

Europe Expected to Get Tough With Iran

Wednesday May 25, 2005 4:31 AM

By ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS

Associated Press Writer

GENEVA (AP) - After long embracing a diplomatic approach to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions, European governments appear to be moving toward turning their carrot into a stick.

But as foreign ministers from France, Britain and Germany meet Iranian officials in Geneva for crucial negotiations Wednesday, it's unclear if a tougher strategy of economic sanctions will work. The only certainty for Western powers in such a scenario would be a big negative: still higher gas prices at the pump.

After months of fruitless talks, the European Union has begun warning that it is moving toward the U.S. position that Tehran should be hauled before the U.N. Security Council for suspect nuclear activities in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

To avert a showdown that could result in U.N. sanctions, Tehran agreed to meet the three European ministers and the EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, for talks in Geneva on Wednesday.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-5029830,00.html

[bemildred]

1. Russia and China to tell Europe to go screw itself about Iran. nt

[oblivious]

2. OK, so the EU is looking for a big stick to beat themselves with.

That really makes sense. Europe is desperate for Iran's oil and natural gas. Iran needs basically nothing from Europe.

So Europe's gonna get tough!!!! :rofl:

[dummy-du1]

3. No

That really makes sense. Europe is desperate for Iran's oil and natural gas. Iran needs basically nothing from Europe.


This is wrong. Germany and France are the two most important import partners of Iran, while Japan and China are the two most important export partners and Iranian exports are mostly petroleum and petrochemical products.

[oblivious]

4. But the EU's products can be supplied from other countries.

About 80% of Iran's exports to the EU are oil products. Iran is Germany's largest trading partner in the ME, trade is skyrocketing, and Germany has an impressive trade surplus.

Let's say Germany and France stop selling cars, machinery, power plants, large machinery and appliances to Iran. Does anyone really think other countries will not fill the gap? Would that really hurt Iran?

Italy needs Iranian oil. Does anyone really think it is prepared to stop buying it? If it did, would Iran find it so difficult to find other buyers?

The only one hurt by a stronger EU embargo would be the EU. I can't see how Iran would be more than inconvenienced.