STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 4 May

[ozymandius]

Wednesday May 4, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 262 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 142 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 199 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1256
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 3, 2005

Dow... 10,256.95 +5.25 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq... 1,933.07 +4.42 (+0.23%)
S&P 500... 1,161.17 -0.99 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.19% -0.01 (-0.19%)
Gold future... 427.70 -2.80 (-0.65%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Frank Barbera

ENERGY: IS THE WALL OF WORRY CRUMBLING?

Over the last two years as the global economy recovered, commodity prices boomed in a bull market spearheaded by strong demand for Energy. Robust growth in China, historically low levels of inventories, and broad questions regarding OPEC’s ability to increase production and find spare capacity, were key issues fostering the wall of worry, which drove energy prices to multi-decade highs. Yet in recent weeks, as signs of a renewed slowdown in global growth have emerged, Energy markets and commodity markets in general have stumbled. During this period of time, the energy market has turned bearish from a technical point of view and now appears to be vulnerable to an even larger decline.

Starting with the big picture view, Crude Oil peaked an extended Third Wave advance in October of 2004. From that peak a sharp 25% decline unfolded between October and late December of 2004. This decline comprised Primary Wave 4 of the Bull Market in Oil. Under Elliott Wave Analysis, Bull Markets tend to move in 5 Wave advancing patterns, with Wave 5 in Crude Oil unfolding between late December 2004 and April 4th, 2005. As would be expected, Wave 5 did advance to a new high for the Cycle with the early April peak in Oil moderately exceeding the former peak seen in October of 2004. At this point, a bear using just Elliott could strongly argue that the bull market top is in place for Crude Oil and that prices are now headed into a strong “third wave” decline, which could rapidly depress Oil prices toward $44 to $40 in coming weeks.

-cut-

What would happen to Oil Stocks if Oil declined sharply from current levels ?

The answer to this question is that Oil Stocks are not that closely linked to the price of the underlying commodity, as would be the case for say, Gold and Gold Stocks, where the linkage is very strong. At present time, large cap Oil Stocks are reporting record earnings, boosting underlying dividends and buying back shares. What’s more, these same companies have not made the same mistakes they once did in previous cycles, wherein large increases in energy prices triggered large increases in CAPEX right at the top of the cycle. In these prior cycles, once CAPEX spending began based on the assumption of continued “high” Oil prices, oil prices inevitably tumbled leaving these companies stuck with commitments to long dated projects amid an environment of shrinking cash flow. That didn’t happen this time, as all of the leading majors have been very guarded and have barely increased exploration budgets this cycle. Finally, large cap Oil Stocks are currently not pricing in $50 Oil, or $45 Oil, or even $40 Oil. No. Instead these companies are still priced for $30 Oil and in many cases, have locked in through forward selling of production, some of the outstanding high prices for Oil and gasoline that have been seen in recent days. This means that future earnings will continue to remain robust within a stock market environment where solid earnings growth is becoming increasingly hard to find. By the way, the one area of Oil Stocks, which should be avoided are the Oil Service names, which currently sell at historically high P/E multiples and have seen very little benefit to their business, as a result of this bull cycle in energy.

-cut-

Finally, with regard to positioning capital in the equity market, at the present time, I believe that an overall rally in the S&P will help to boost prices for large cap Oil Stocks, which remain attractive and could also lead to a sharp rally in Financials, especially the major banks, and a rebound in cyclical names such as Defense, Basic Materials, and Transportation stocks, many of which are badly depressed at this time. On the aggressive side of the equation, probably no index would benefit more than the beleaguered Airlines stocks which are sporting a potential double bottom on the Amex Airline Index. If Oil prices are going to continue to decline, we should no fairly soon, as any move below $48.40 on Crude should be followed by sizeable downside acceleration toward the low $40’s. For the long suffering Airlines, this could be a welcome reprieve.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[radfringe]

2. according to Cheney

in a meeting waaaaaaay back when Paul O'Neill was Tresury Secretary --
There was some concern over the federal deficit and how it would effect the 2002 mid-term (s)election

Cheney said -- "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter"

This is pretty much the attitude since then -- with the exception of lipservice and multiple excuses and passing of the buck -- the bushies don't give a rat's butt about deficits -- as long as they get their big chunks of pie

Greenspan is concerned with inflation. Repugs are crying about filibusters. Meanwhile -- Americans are getting gouged and ripped off.

Analysis: Congress to pay economic price?
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050503-013014-8918r.htm
By Christian Bourge
UPI Congressional and Policy Correspondent

Washington, DC, May. 3 (UPI) -- Although Congress remains embroiled and to a certain extent defined by the current series of partisan matchups on everything from judicial nominees to Social Security reform, little policy attention is being paid by lawmakers and the Bush administration to the domestic economy.

This despite recent warning signs of the potential for stagnation and, worse, inflation to take over the economy amid worries from consumers about the domestic economic situation.

The Conference Board's monthly Consumer Confidence Index has been on the decline since January, and the economy continues to consistently ranks at the top of the list of issues that adults polled this year believe Congress and the president should be currently addressing.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll of 1,007 adults nationwide from April 21-24 found 32 percent of those surveyed believed the economy and jobs was the highest policy priority for lawmakers and the administration, ranking above the war in Iraq, healthcare, the fight against terrorism, Social Security and other issues

---snip---
Just such an increase came Tuesday with the Fed raising a key interest rate for the eighth time since June 2004, by 1 quarter point to 3 percent.

This is important because enough increases could have a negative impact on the economy, particularly unemployment rates.

This coupled with continued high prices for oil and gas and the growing trade deficit have the effect of lowering consumer spending and discouraging business investment -- facts confirmed by the recent slowdowns in consumer spending and durable-goods orders -- therefore working as a drag on the economy.

========================================

[AnneD]

18. Morning Marketeers

:donut: Love the toons. I will be out of pocket today. I will be going to the State Legislature to testify on some bills up for condsideration. My goal is to assure that every school child has a school nurse. Now that may sound like common sense, or you may think we already have a school nurse in every school. But trust me- many districts have as much as a 1:1,200 nurse to student and we now have to many medically fragile kids in schools now. Every time there is a burp in the budget, they think the nurse is a friviolous expense so they cut the position. OK, I'll get off my soap box and take it to Austin with me. Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

21. I hope that you have much success in

Austin today, AnneD!

We'll hold down the fort for you :hi:

[AnneD]

23. Gotta go...

I'll read about all the fun when I get back. Thanks UIA, have a good one..

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.94 Change -0.57 (-0.67%)

Dollar Sells Off On Fed Mistake

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=951&Itemid=39

US Dollar

To the surprise of anyone who stuck around to watch the newswire post FOMC, the Fed actually came out and said that they accidentally dropped the phrase "longer-term inflation remains well contained" from their statement. This slip by the Fed is quite unbelievable and makes us wonder if another fellow will be omitted from next month's non-farm payrolls report. This re-addition of the phrase makes the statement even less hawkish and more disappointing than the original release because it suggests that the Fed may still believe that the pickup in inflation is temporary. In terms of the actual FOMC rate decision, as expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter of a point for the eighth consecutive month to 3% and left in the phrases "measured" and "accommodative." With no surprises from the Fed, the dollar did not deliver any blockbuster movements. Even though the market was divided on what changes the Fed would make to the statement, if any, going into the meeting, the majority did believe that the measured phrase would remain in place for at least another month. With mixed economic data released over the past few weeks, we have said that the Fed is in no rush to adopt a more aggressive stance, especially since they already upgraded their statement back in March. With the long-term inflation view back in the statement, there were only two overall changes - the Fed acknowledged that spending growth has slowed somewhat and they dropped the observation that energy prices have not fed through to core consumer prices. Basically the central bank is reiterating their belief that inflation pressures continue to grow, which paves the way for another quarter point rate hike in June. Eventually though, "measured" and "accommodative" will have to dropped from the statement and this could very well happen next month especially since annualized CPI is currently 3.1%. If the headline inflation index remains the same, when the Fed delivers their next bout of tightening, interest rates would be above the inflation rate, which means that monetary policy is no longer extremely accommodative. Pimco's Gross expects the Fed to stop raising rates at 3.25%-3.5% - if the Fed really stops then, this confirms that the words measured and/or accommodative would have to disappear soon. For the time being though, traders have already shifted their focus to Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Today's Challenger report paints an optimistic picture for the labor market going into Friday's release. According to the group, layoffs fell 33% in the month of April to the lowest level in 5 years. Factory orders also beat expectations rising 0.1% during the month of March.

Euro

The Euro finally mustered a rebound against the dollar thanks to the Fed's disappointment. The latest batch of Eurozone data continues to paint the same bleak outlook that we have all become familiar with. Unemployment in the region ticked higher from 8.8% to 8.9% while producer prices increased at a faster pace during the month of March. Reports are expected from the service sector tomorrow and we expect to see a similar deterioration to the one that we saw in the manufacturing sector yesterday. With high unemployment rates in both France and Germany, retail sales should remain weak. This makes Thursday's ECB rate decision an easy guess, as the central bank will once again be unable to do anything to help its faltering economy.

<snip>

Japanese Yen

After stealing the limelight for most of last week, USDJPY has fallen to the sideline today with the Japanese markets closed for a national holiday. Speculation of Yuan revaluation continues to be in full force although no new announcements have been made. Interestingly enough, following talks this evening in Istanbul between China, Japan and South Korea, China's Finance Minister came on the wires saying that the Yuan was not discussed at the meeting. On the contrary, Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki said it was indeed discussed but didn't want to disclose the details, while South Korea said that no detailed discussions were held. We leave it to you to guess who may actually be telling the truth. In our opinion, with each passing day, we get closer to revaluation and it is now possible that an announcement from China could occur sooner rather than later. USDJPY has remained supported following Friday's massive sell-off. China's eventual announcement could be what it takes to see USDJPY head back towards its January lows.

...more...

Fed Equivocates and Dollar Falls

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=963&Itemid=39

One missing sentence. That's all it took for the FX market to seize on the idea that Fed may actually halt it's almost robotic 25bp per month tightening policy. The net result was a 100 point sell off for the greenback in holiday thinned Asian session. The pair retraced slightly in the European trade, but buoyed by mildly positive Services PMI (52.8 vs. 52.6 expected) and Retail Trade (0.3% vs. -0.2%) numbers, EUR/USD remained well above the 1.2900 figure for the first time since Friday.

For anyone not yet familiar with yesterday's theatrics, the Fed released an amended FOMC policy statement just before the close of US equity markets that noted "Longer-term inflation expectations remain well- contained.'' The dovish tone helped to turn the Dow positive in the final minutes of trade eliciting conspiratorial accusations of equity bears everywhere. While stock shorts fumed in frustration at the mixed messages of the Fed, the FX market followed a much more pragmatic approach selling the pair on the belief that further slowdown in US economy will prevent the Fed from continuing its tightening policy of raising short term rates, thus eliminating the primary reason to be long the dollar.

It is ironic that the FX market started the week with dollar bulls fully focused on the 1.2700 barrier and now finds itself within reach of the 1.3000 level instead. Attention will now turn to Friday's NFP report and given the bullish Challenger data that showed the smallest amount of corporate layoffs since November of 2000, the possibility of an upside surprise is strong. However, if the employment report prints weaker than the 170K expected, it will confirm the bear's arguments that US economy has slowed significantly. At that point the dollar bulls will be 0-3 in our " 3 key questions for dollar bulls rally" thesis and will have managed the unlikely feat of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

...more...

Majors Stage Battle Of The Bulge Against Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=958&Itemid=39

EUR/USD - Euro longs staged a surprising countermove against the greenback and managed to make their way deep into the dollar held territory. As the single currency tries to capture more territory from the greenback, vanguard euro bulls will encounter minor resistance at 1.2892, a 61.8 Fib of the Feb-Mar euro rally.

A move further will come upon an intermediate resistance at 1.3059, an Apr 1 daily spike high, which currently defends the major support at 1.3107, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.2730-1.3481 euro rally. As euro longs continue to press with their advance they have shifted their defensive positions with minor support at 1.2892, a 78.6 fib of the Feb-Mar euro rally. An intermediate support can be seen at 1.2825, May 3 daily low, with major support at 1.2775, an Apr 15 daily low, currently defending the 1.2730, a 2005 low and a gateway toward the 1.2481, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.1760-1.3667 euro rally. Oscillators are mixed, with Stochastic neutral on the daily chart at 41.11 and overbought at 83.35 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains neutral on the daily chart at 46.26 and approaching overbought territory at 60.18 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below the zero line on both the daily dealer (4HR) charts.

<snip>

USD/JPY - Yen followed the euro and staged a massive attack against the dollar positions and in the process recapturing the key 105.00 level. As yen longs continue to press their advance on the greenback positions, dollar longs continue to maintain their defenses with the minor support at 104.58, an Apr 28 daily low. An intermediate support remains intact at 104.41, a 61.8 Fib of the Jan-Apr dollar rally, with major support at 104.04, a Feb 28 daily spike low continuing to defend the 104.00 figure. In an instance dollar bulls manage to beat back the yen longs and follow through with the assault, they will encounter a minor resistance at 105.29, a 5-day SMA. A further advance into the yen territory will come upon an intermediate resistance at 105.73, a 10-day SMA. A major resistance at 106.11, an Apr 20 daily spike low, remains a key target for the dollar bulls as the a breakout above will most likely see the USD/JPY retest the 108.88, a 2005 high. Indicators are aligned, with Stochastic remaining oversold on both the daily chart at 13.7 and at 11.17 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is treading above the oversold level on the daily chart at 30.15 and is approaching oversold line at 35.7 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is crossing the zero line on the daily chart and made a bearish crossover on the dealer (4HR) chart.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar extends losses after FOMC

The statement was changed to call inflation "contained"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBF356EF6%2DE0D1%2D478F%2D92C7%2D2C9FA89F5D97%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar extended losses on Wednesday vs. major rivals, as nerves continued to be rattled by an unexpected change to the new Federal Open Market Committee policy statement to characterize inflation as "contained."

<snip>

On Tuesday, the dollar initially rose after the Fed raised rates. But dollar gains were limited by investor frustration that the Fed statement did not provide bolder clues about the central bank's intentions for future interest rate increases, said Bill Hoerter, senior foreign exchange dealer at Alaron.

"These currency moves are not huge because we are not seeing a huge change in the language," Hoerter said. "The Fed is being a little wishy-washy and ducking the issue of predictability."

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Dollar down after Fed notes "well contained" inflation

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.368169919-835020739&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was weaker early Wednesday, undermined by the Federal Open Market Committee's characterization of inflation as "well contained" in its latest monetary policy statement. On Tuesday the dollar first rose after the Fed hiked overnight rates to 3%, as widely expected, and issued a policy statement little changed from the prior one. However, the dollar was sent lower almost two hours later when the Fed issued an unusual statement, admitting that the first version of the statement accidentally omitted the sentence calling inflation "well contained." In recent trades the euro was up 0.6% at $1.2951, after the European Central Bank left its refi rate unchanged at 2%, as expected. The dollar fell 0.6% to 104.29 yen.

Silly rabbit! Tricks are for kids!

[UpInArms]

47. Currencies: Dollar undermined by monetary policy pessimism

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBF356EF6%2DE0D1%2D478F%2D92C7%2D2C9FA89F5D97%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was pressured Wednesday by mounting investor conviction that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more aggressive pace of interest rate increases, following the central bank's latest policy directive.

The euro was last up 0.6% at $1.2953 and the dollar down 0.6% at 104.27 yen.

On Wednesday, the Fed hiked overnight rates as expected by a quarter-point to 3%, and issued a policy statement initially viewed as little changed from the prior one. The dollar ticked higher on that news.

However, nearly two hours later the Fed, in a highly unusual move, issued an admission that the policy statement accidentally omitted a key phrase that the central bank considers inflation "well contained."

Economists had pointed to the omission of the sentence in the first version of the statement as evidence that the Fed is now more worried about inflation - meaning that it would continue to raise interest rates.

But the late afternoon amendment tabled those expectations, sparking a dollar sell-off that accelerated in overnight overseas trade.

...more...

My posting title reflects what was on CBSMarketwatch ticker - but is not what you find at the link. Methinks the ticker is very funny :rofl:

Pessimism is the problem! :rofl:

[UpInArms]

4. AIG blame game begins

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3E59298B-F030-452A-8974-E9CD48713063%7D&siteid=google

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Now that American International Group has confirmed that it manipulated earnings statements over several years the major players involved in the scandal have begun pointing fingers at each other.

"Nobody wants to take the blame for this," Paul Newsome, an insurance analyst at A.G. Edwards, said Tuesday.

AIG, one of the largest insurers in the world, is embroiled in a widening probe by regulators including the Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. Investigators are concerned that AIG and other companies have been manipulating their results using complex reinsurance transactions and other accounting tricks.

The probes forced longtime AIG CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg to step down earlier this year after almost 40 years at the helm.

<snip>

Other suspect accounting -- which artificially inflated AIG's net worth by about $100 million at the end of 2004 -- was performed at "the direction of certain former members of senior management without appropriate support," AIG added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. Greenberg threatens suit to recover items at AIG-report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.320968669-835017777&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Former American International Group Inc (AIG) Maurice "Hank" Greenberg has threatened to sue AIG to recover property, including files, mementos and antiques in possession of the company that he claims are his, according to a published report citing his attorneys. The Wall Street Journal said Wednesday that according to people familiar with the matter, Greenberg prepared to send a moving van to pick up the articles from AIG offices last week, but AIG lawyers prevented the move. According to the report, the items he wants to recover include "letters his mother sent him during wartime service; photos taken when he was awarded the Bronze Star; cards from heads of state including the first President Bush; health records of Mr. Greenberg's Maltese, Snowball; and his underwear, monogrammed bath towels and Water Pik."

[UpInArms]

5. Ford and G.M. Suffer as Buyers Shun S.U.V.'s

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/04/automobiles/04auto.html

DETROIT, May 3 - The latest automobile sales figures show that Americans are increasingly wary of gas-thirsty sport utility vehicles. That was particularly bad news for General Motors and the Ford Motor Company, which both saw their sales slip last month as consumers continued their steady march into Asian car companies' dealerships.

Both Toyota and Nissan posted record sales gains in April, which helped push overall auto sales in North America up 1.8 percent.

But even as sales were expanding for the industry, they were shrinking at G.M. and Ford. The decline was the sharpest at General Motors, the world's largest automaker. G.M.'s sales fell 7.7 percent from the same month a year earlier, primarily because of a weak demand for S.U.V.'s. The lack of appetite for S.U.V.'s also hurt Ford, which sold 5 percent fewer vehicles in April compared with a year ago.

April's sales numbers showed no signs that the pressure on Detroit from its Asian rivals will let up anytime soon. That became particularly evident on Tuesday as Toyota reported that April had been the most successful month in its history. Its sales were up 21.3 percent on big gains in the number of passenger cars sold

...more...

[MARALE]

28. GM's future depends on SUVs and trucks

Their marketing department sucks, they are betting the house on SUVs this next year and I don't think it will work.

http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/gmtrucks18e_20040618.htm

When General Motors Corp. begins replacing its line of full-size trucks in early 2006, it will start with sport-utility vehicles, including all-new versions of the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Envoy, the Free Press has learned.

GM's full-size truck lineup
Pickups

Cadillac Escalade EXT

Chevrolet Silverado

Chevrolet Avalanche

GMC Sierra

SUVs

Cadillac Escalade

Cadillac Escalade ESV

Chevrolet Tahoe

Chevrolet Suburban

GMC Yukon

GMC Yukon XL

Hummer H2

Those new SUVs, along with an all-new version of the popular Cadillac Escalade and others, will be assembled at GM's assembly plants in Arlington, Texas, and Janesville, Wis.

As part of this next generation of GM's full-size truck line, a major $175-million investment already has been announced for Janesville and an announcement could be coming soon for Arlington, say GM officials, supplier officials and other people familiar with GM's plan.

GM's big trucks are North America's largest and the automaker's most important, vehicle line.

[UpInArms]

29. egads these people are stoopid!

:rofl:

[naderzenithnow]

55. Yeah. What's that about pensions you say? Henh?

[UpInArms]

6. Bribery fallout leaves profit in freefall at Marsh & McLennan

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1475771,00.html

Marsh & McLennan yesterday said first quarter profits fell by 70% after the world's largest insurance broker suffered the impact of bribery allegations that surfaced last year.

The broker reported earnings of $134m, down from $446m a year earlier.

In January Marsh agreed to pay $850m to settle a lawsuit brought by the New York attorney general Eliot Spitzer that claimed the firm had taken kickbacks from insurance firms in return for directing business their way. It also accused the firm of rigging bids to drive prices higher.

Marsh at the time apologised for "unlawful" and "shameful" behaviour.

The results included $225m of charges directly and indirectly related to the scandal. The charges include severance payments, bonuses to retain key workers, compliance costs and reimbursements for clients affected in the separate mutual funds scandal at its Putnam division.

The company is no longer earning revenue from the so-called "contingent commissions", the fees that were hidden from clients that Mr Spitzer likened to kickbacks. The fees added around $600m to revenues annually.

<snip>

Since the allegations against the firm first arose, Marsh has cut about 5,000 jobs, 9% of its workforce, ousted its former chief executive Jeffrey Greenberg and cut its dividend in half.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Electronic Arts profit sinks 91%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2A055C00%2D59ED%2D4869%2DA506%2DA320AEF03967%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Electronic Arts shares sank Tuesday evening as disappointing video-game sales and new investments for next-generation consoles drove profits down 91%.

The world's largest entertainment software firm also forecast an unexpected loss for the first quarter.

The news sent shares of EA (ERTS: news, chart, profile) down more than 11% to $46.85 in late trading. The stock closed the regular session up 45 cents at $52.90.

The Redwood City, Calif.-based company said profit fell to $8 million, or 2 cents a share, compared with $90 million or 29 cents a share a year ago. Excluding charges such as $21 million related to an employment lawsuit, EA said it would have earned $30 million, or 9 cents a share, in line with analyst estimates.

...more...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

10. Xbox rollout.

Has the industry standing stock still.

[UpInArms]

9. Today's Reports:

May 4	10:00 AM	ISM Services	Apr	-	61.0	61.0	63.1	-

and the Petroleum Inventories (DOE and API)

[UpInArms]

30. ISM falls to 61.7% vs 63.1% last month

10:03am 05/04/05 U.S. APRIL ISM SERVICES PRICES 61.9% VS 65.6% IN MARCH

10:02am 05/04/05 U.S. APRIL ISM SERVICES NEW ORDERS 58.8% VS 62.1% MARCH

10:01am 05/04/05 U.S. APRIL ISM SERVICES EMPLOYMENT 53.3% VS 57.1% MARCH

10:00am 05/04/05 U.S. APRIL ISM SERVICES ABOVE CONSENSUS 60.9%

10:00am 05/04/05 U.S. APRIL ISM SERVICES 61.7% VS 63.1% IN MARCH

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. April ISM services index slips to 61.7

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.4213485995-835023983&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded at a slightly slower pace during April, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index edged down to 61.7% from 63.1% in March. The decline was not as large as expected. Economists were looking the index to fall to 60.9%. New orders fell to 58.8% from 57.1%. The employment index fell to 53.3% from 57.1%. The price index fell to 61.9% from 65.6%.

but the goodsnewspinners say "it's not as bad as we projected" :shakeshead:

Every sector was off - and this lovely "service" economy that is dependent upon the consumer is rapidly becoming a joke.

[UpInArms]

46. Services growth eases in April, ISM says

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8387360

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The enormous U.S. services sector expanded a bit more slowly in April, making firms more reluctant to hire new workers, according to an industry survey published on Wednesday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its services index slipped to a still-robust 61.7 in April, close to Wall Street forecasts and down from 63.1 in March.

A number above 50 indicates growth in the sector, which accounts for about 80 percent of the U.S. economy. The industry encompasses everything from coffee shops and restaurants to hotels and airlines.

The survey's jobs measure fell to 53.3 from 57.1, a bad sign for those hoping April would bring a long-awaited burst of employment creation.

...more...

[cosmicdot]

79. the PMI has been declining since May 2004

Purchasing Manager's Index
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/PMIndex.cfm

May 2004 62.6
June 61.2
July 61.6
Aug 59.6
Sept 59.1
Oct 57.5
Nov 57.6
Dec 57.3
Jan 2005 56.4
Feb 55.3
Mar 55.2
Apr 53.3

I've been amazed that it's been so high. Why has it been high?

from ISM:

The PMI is the major element of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators (New Orders represents 30%, Production represents 25%, Employment represents 20%, Supplier Deliveries represents 15%, and Inventories represents 10%) by the varying weights.

A PMI reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50%, that it is generally declining. A PMI over 42.7%, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is generally expanding, below 42.7%, that it is generally declining. The distance from 50% or 42.7% is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

[UpInArms]

33. DOE's petroleum inventory report

10:31am 05/04/05 DOE: U.S. DISTILLATE SUPPLIES DOWN 300,000 BARRELS

10:30am 05/04/05 DOE: U.S. CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 2.6 MILLION BARRELS

10:30am 05/04/05 DOE: U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLIES UP 2.2 MILLION BARRELS

[naderzenithnow]

36. It’s a shell game or should I say Exxon.

Here from there unless the admin is leaking from the SR.

[UpInArms]

41. Who's got the ball? - June crude rallies after supply reports

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD7B283F7-8786-4908-84D5-FEEBD705632F%7D&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- The June crude-oil contract shook off bearish U.S. inventory data to trade higher Wednesday morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange despite two reports of larger-than-expected increases in crude supplies. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com, said he believes the data may have already been priced into the energy futures. The June contract for crude fell 10% last week. Crude for June delivery traded as low as $48.80 a barrel immediately after the reports and was last at $49.70, up 20 cents.

[UpInArms]

39. API petroleum inventory report (yowser!)

10:50am 05/04/05 API: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES DOWN 697,000 BARRELS

10:47am 05/04/05 API: CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 10.2 MILLION BARRELS

10:48am 05/04/05 API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES UP 649,000 BARRELS

[UpInArms]

12. this sounds like an insider deal

RR Donnelley wins $400M contract from RH Donnelley

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.3330887963-835018431&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - R. R. Donnelley & Sons Company (RRD) Wednesday said it was awarded a $400 million multi-year contract to produce all of R.H. Donnelley's current telephone directories. On Tuesday the Chicago printer's stock closed unchanged at $33.01.

[UpInArms]

13. Kerkorian's Tracinda offers $31 a share for GM stock

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.3473661227-835019496&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Tracinda Corp. on Wednesday said it plans to make a cash tender offer of $31 a share for up to 28 million shares of General Motors (GM) . The offer from Kirk Kerkorian's buyout firm is worth about $868 million. The offer price, which is 13% above GM's closing price of $27.77 on Tuesday, is without regard to General Motors' regular quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share expected to be paid in June 2005, Tracinda said. Stockholders will be entitled to retain the dividend expected to be paid in June 2005. Tracinda would own 8.8% of GM after the offer. General Motors shares rallied 6.2% to $29.50 in pre-market trades.

[naderzenithnow]

26. It's a scam and they'll never go through with! GM is soooo screwed!

[naderzenithnow]

56. Short covering up-draft is over,watch floors take profits as GM re-falls

[UpInArms]

14. "Blatant Billions" loses on derivatives

Clayton Williams swings to a first quarter loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.3520559375-835019715&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Clayton Williams Energy Inc. (CWEI) posted Wednesday a first quarter net loss of $9 million, or 83 cents a share compared with a profit of $4.8 million, or 50 cents a share in the year-ago period. In the quarter, the Midland, Texas company said it booked a $35.1 million expense for the change in the fair value of its commodity derivatives, most of which were assumed in connection with its acquisition of Southwest Royalties Inc. in May 2004. The oil and gas exploration company said revenue shot up to $65.7 million from $38.9 million. On Tuesday, the stock edged up a penny to $24.25.

and for a bit of background on Williams:

In 1990 Clayton Williams was the Republican candidate for governor in the state of Texas. He was locked in a tight race with Democrat Ann Richards but seemed to be gaining momentum in the final weeks of the campaign. Then it happened. The brash millionaire opened his mouth and inserted his foot up all the way up to his knee.

Hoping to curry favor with the press, Williams invited several reporters for some informal "off the record" time at his ranch. In casual conversation, the subject of the weather came up. Williams could not resist the temptation to play meteorologist and commented that bad weather is sort of like rape: "as long as it's inevitable, you might as well lie back and enjoy it."

http://www.lifeway.com/lwc/article_main_page/0,1703,A%253D151926%2526M%253D150019,00.html

[UpInArms]

15. Treasury prices fall ahead of refunding announcement

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.3616055093-835020313&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices dropped, pushing yields higher, early Wednesday as the market awaited the U.S. refunding announcement for the second quarter. The U.S. Treasury previously said it will pay down $42 billion. The market also is awaiting the Institute for Supply Management's April services sector survey. The average estimate of economists polled by Market Watch is for the survey's headline figure to drop to 60.9% last month from 63.1% in March. The yield on the 10-year bond rose to $4.182% from 4.16% late Tuesday. Treasurys rallied late Tuesday after the Federal Reserve admitted it omitted the key phrase that inflation expectations "remain well-contained" from its latest policy statement.

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. considers reinstituting the 30-year bond

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={2BC8F1D9-7621-4A44-B927-5BFB7D3ACA08}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. government is considering reinstituting the 30-year bond, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. A decision will be announced on Aug. 3 at the August quarterly refunding. The Treasury stopped issuing the bond in October 2001 when the government was projecting surpluses that would eventually eliminate government debt. Now, the government faces large deficits that need to be financed in a cost-effective manner.

U.S. to auction $51 billion in notes next week

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.3752010417-835021055&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. will sell $51 billion in Treasury notes next week as part of its quarterly refunding, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. The government will sell $14 billion in 10-year notes, $15 billion in 5-year notes and $22 billion in 3-year notes. The refunding will pay off $39.6 billion in maturing securities and raise $11.4 billion in new cash. The Treasury said earlier this week that it expects to pay down $42 billion in marketable debt this quarter.

9:00am 05/04/05 U.S. TO AUCTION $22 BILLION IN 3-YEAR NOTES

9:00am 05/04/05 U.S. TO AUCTION $15 BILLION IN 5-YEAR NOTES

9:00am 05/04/05 U.S. TO AUCTION $14 BILLION IN 10-YEAR NOTES

9:00am 05/04/05 U.S. TO AUCTION $51 BILLION IN NOTES NEXT WEEK

9:00am 05/04/05 DECISION ON 30-YEAR BOND TO COME IN AUGUST

9:00am 05/04/05 U.S. CONSIDERS REINSTITUTING 30-YEAR BOND

[UpInArms]

20. Treasurys tumble after news 30-year bond may come back

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.3784045139-835021524&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Long-term Treasury prices tumbled, sending yields higher, early Wednesday fter the U.S. Treasury confirmed market suspicions that it is considering reinstituting the 30-year bond. A decision will be announced on Aug. 3 at the August quarterly refunding. The Treasury stopped issuing the bond in October 2001 when the government was projecting surpluses that would eventually eliminate government debt. In recent trades the yield on the 10-year bond rose to 4.24% from 4.18% before the news. In late trade Tuesday the yield was 4.16%. The yield on the 30-year bond rose to 4.74% vs 4.5% late Tuesday.

:wow: That didn't take long!

[naderzenithnow]

40. Strategic maneuvering or death throws? Time will tell.

[UpInArms]

45. Mulling new long bonds prudent management-Treasury

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8387162

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury's decision to consider reviving the scrapped 30-year bond is motivated by a desire for prudent portfolio management, not by the scale of federal deficits, an official said on Wednesday.

"We are seeing tremendous (rises) in tax receipts," Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Timothy Bitsberger told a news briefing. "That means that the 30-year bond -- this is a decision independent of what our deficits are.

"We're doing this really because times have changed. Our debt portfolio has changed and we believe now we have the flexibility to issue bonds and maintain liquid issuance in all our other securities," Bitsberger said.

...more...

my two cents: just looks like another way to shove this mal-administration's debt onto another generation

[naderzenithnow]

58. for "prudent portfolio management, not by the scale of federal deficits"

um hmm....

[UpInArms]

66. U.S. may bring back the long bond to compete with Europe

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B138B4DEF%2DE4CC%2D4733%2D9912%2D82692DA6A691%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Long-term Treasury prices pared their losses in afternoon trading after the U.S. Treasury touched off a morning sell-off by confirming market speculation that it may bring back the 30-year bond.

The prospect of a return to the 30-year bond sparked nervousness about excess supply of bonds.

In midafternoon trading, the 10-year bond was down 5/32 at 98 16/32, yielding 4.19%, contrasting with 4.16% late Tuesday.

The 30-year bond was down 1 21/32 at 111 28/32; its yield rose to 4.583%, down from 4.5% late Tuesday. During heavy morning selling immediately after the news, the yield touched 5.05%.

The Treasury Department said a decision will be announced Aug. 3.

The Treasury stopped issuing the bond in October 2001, when the government was projecting surpluses that would eventually eliminate government debt. Now, the government faces large deficits that need to be financed in a cost-effective manner. See separate story.

The news sparked selling - despite the fact many investors suspected the Treasury would have to seriously consider bringing the 30-year maturity back - due to worries such a development would lead to oversupply, according to Action Economics economist Kim Rupert.

...more...

Now "we're competing with Europe" - wow! mighty big fall for the world's only economic "engine".

[UpInArms]

16. Customers Mostly Unfazed By Giant Layoffs (500 jobs)

http://www.thewbalchannel.com/news/4447279/detail.html

BOWIE, Md. -- Giant's move to cut 500 jobs in the region and sell its corporate headquarters in Landover may be bad news for the company's work force, but many customers don't seem to think it will affect them.

Several customers coming out of a Giant Store on Route 301 in Bowie Tuesday night said they were unaware of the move by the area's top grocery chain.

Some long-time Giant customers who knew about the layoffs told The Associated Press they were not concerned, as long as the store's service isn't affected.

...more...

Blech! Is this a FAUXsnews channel? "Some" customers? That's one of their favorite methods of muddying a story. :puke:

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Stage remains set for stocks to open higher, as the futures market still trades above fair value... Bonds, however, have recently turned sharply lower amid reports the Treasury may consider reissuing the 30-yr bond, as the 10-yr note is off 12 ticks to yield 4.21%

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade stabilizes comfortably above fair value, indicating the cash market will open on an upbeat note... So far, the majority of this morning's notable earnings have checked in better than expected, with Time Warner (TWX) beating estimates by a penny while Cigna (CI) has handily beaten expectations and issued upside FY05 guidance

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures indications improve to their best levels of the morning, pointing to an even higher open for the indices, amid reports that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. plans to increase its stake in GM to 8.84% with a tender offer for up to 28 mln GM shares... Oil prices hovering below $50/bbl, ahead of a weekly oil report that could show inventory builds across the board, has also contributed to the upside bias

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market after the Fed's corrected policy statement eased concerns of more aggressive Fed tightening... Also providing a floor of support, as investors sift through a new batch of earnings reports, has been a couple of multi-billion merger deals...


ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1443.95. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1443.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes last month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1387.77 is the next downside target. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 2.00 pts. at 1436 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1163.23. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1163.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted and could lead to additional short covering gains during the first half of May. If June renews last month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 1130.03 is the next downside target. The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.50 pts. at 1164.70 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

24. 9:35 EST markets are open

Dow 10,282.74 +25.79 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,937.29 +4.22 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,163.84 +2.67 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.214 +0.28 (+0.67%)

NYSE Volume 56,577,000
Nasdaq Volume 62,381,000

[UpInArms]

27. 9:50 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,278.68 +21.73 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,936.81 +3.74 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,162.84 +1.67 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218 +0.32 (+0.76%)

NYSE Volume 178,989,000
Nasdaq Volume 164,605,000

9:40AM: Stocks open higher, as investors embrace a slew of upbeat corporate news... Providing the largest lift early on has been news that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. plans to acquire another 5.0% stake (up to 28 mln shares) in General Motors (GM 30.30 +2.53) for a 13.4% premium... Also contributing to the positive bias has been a couple of multi-billion mergers (i.e. AMT-SSI and Fresenius-RCI) as well as better than expected earnings from blue chips like TWX, CI, PEG, AOC and MET... Separately, April ISM Services (consensus 61.0) will be released at 10:00 ET...

[UpInArms]

31. 10:06 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,293.16 +36.21 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,939.43 +6.36 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,164.69 +3.52 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.218 +0.32 (+0.76%)

NYSE Volume 298,091,000
Nasdaq Volume 263,595,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Pacing the way higher again has been Materials while better than expected earnings from MET (+10%) and AOC (+14%), as well as an upgrade on BSC (+1.3%), have helped Financial... Also showing relative strength have been Consumer Discretionary and Health Care while Technology has been mixed... Semiconductor and Hardware have posted modest gains but Software has been under pressure after Electronic Arts (ERTS 48.46 -4.44) said it will miss analysts' Q1 and FY05 estimates...

Utility has been the worst performing sector amid downside Q2 guidance from Dominion Resources (D 73.15 -2.00)... Separately, the EIA is expected to show inventory builds in crude oil (consensus +1.25 mln) as well as gasoline (consensus +875K) and distillates (consensus +575K) at 10:30 ET... NYSE Adv/Dec 1489/878, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1459/828

[UpInArms]

34. 10:33 EST numbers (shooting for the moon!) and blather

Dow 10,337.64 +80.69 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 1,947.56 +14.49 (+0.75%)
S&P 500 1,168.69 +7.52 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.220 +0.34 (+0.81%)

NYSE Volume 487,134,000
Nasdaq Volume 425,712,000

10:30AM: Major indices continue to trade at improved levels following this morning's only piece of economic data... At the top of the hour, the April ISM services index checked in at 61.7, versus forecasts of 61.0 and a March reading of 63.1... The prices paid component fell to 61.9, from a prior read of 65.6, while employment fell to 53.3, down from 57.1 in March, as any measures above 50 still represent growth...

But unlike the confusion and concerns following the unanticipated release of last month's ISM services data, which rattled both stocks and bonds when investors got wind of a larger than expected jump in the prices paid component - a widely-watched inflation metric - the market has so far taken April's data in stride... NYSE Adv/Dec 1878/945, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1577/947

(added blather on edit)

[loudsue]

35. Tell me again why the market goes up when news is bad?

I can't very well believe that people go into a buying frenzie when they find a crumb or two of positive news...news which usually doesn't turn out to be true in a week or two?

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

37. could be that they are programmed to think down is up?

[UpInArms]

49. Long and Short: Things seem so grim, it must be time to buy stocks

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05124/498916.stm

The economy is slowing, real wage growth is nowhere to be seen, the consumer is finally rolling over and the Fed needs to raise rates to fight inflation. Yep, it's time to buy stocks.

For the first time in a while, the stock market overall isn't looking terribly expensive. While that doesn't mean the market is poised to go up soon, it shouldn't go down dramatically either.

The Federal Reserve tightened for the eighth time since last June on Tuesday, but financial conditions in the economy overall surprisingly have not become much tougher. The Goldman Sachs financial-conditions index, which attempts to measure how much stimulus there is in the economy, stands right about where it was when the Fed started raising rates. Since then, the dollar has weakened, the stock market is up and corporate-bond rates are down -- all things that stimulate the economy.

It's an unprecedented combination, says Jan Hatzius, an economist for the firm. "In some sense, the Fed hasn't achieved all that much," he says. It's just another reminder of the exceptional and difficult period that confronts the markets.

Sure, it appears that the high price of oil has slowed the economy down. And lately, corporate-bond prices have fallen amid signs that investors are starting to take the Fed's moves more seriously, even though the economy seems fragile. Eventually, as the Fed presses on with its rate rises, the central bank will manage to apply the brakes.

...more...

Up is down, black is white, war is peace. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

25. S&P lifts its outlook on Hong Kong's sovereign credit rating

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD63A41C7%2DE0F6%2D4047%2D8217%2D6C8477147BE2%7D

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's has raised its outlook on Hong Kong's sovereign credit rating, saying the recent improvement in the territory's public finances had cleared up many of the clouds over its financial future.

"One of the principal pressures on the rating has largely been dealt with as a major issue," said Paul Coughlin, head of corporate and government ratings in Asia for S&P. "We think the goals for eventually eliminating the fiscal deficit are quite realistic."

The government posted a consolidated budget surplus of HK$21.4 billion for the fiscal year ended March 31, a vastly better performance than it had originally expected. S&P said the budget is still in deficit after stripping out one-time gains, but to the tune of HK$10.5 billion, still a big improvement from the HK$40 billion-HK$60 billion annual deficits of recent years.

Citing the much-improved prospects for future years' deficits to narrow further, S&P said Wednesday it had changed its outlook for Hong Kong's foreign-currency credit rating to positive from stable.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Stocks rally as crude slides

Kirk Kerkorian bids for GM; Time Warner EPS beat

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B14D3B680%2D548C%2D4C26%2DBF45%2DCFB344DC260C%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday morning as a slide in crude-oil prices added to the already positive tone set by a spike in General Motors Corp. after Tracinda Corp. offered to buy a stake in the world's largest automaker.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was up 91 points, or 0.9%, 10,349 while the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) jumped 16 points, or 0.8%, to 1,949 and the S&P 500 ($SPX: news, chart, profile) rose 9 points, or 0.8%, to 1,170.

General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile) was the Dow's biggest gainer, surging 14% to $31.75 after Kirk Kerkorian's buyout firm announced plans for a $31 a share bid to buy up to 28 million GM shares. The offer price was 13% above GM's closing price of $27.77 on Tuesday.

Tracinda would own 8.8% of GM after the offer. See full story.

<snip>

"The GM news makes people feel better that a major investor thinks that there's value in a company, it's positive that the Fed meeting is behind us...and the economic reports still continue to paint an ok economy...and oil of course dropping didn't hurt" said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards.

...more bs at link...

Reminds me of a line out of Waterworld:

"They'll row for a month before they figure out I'm just bluffing."

[UpInArms]

42. 11:05 EST numbers and blather (Reach for the sky - Woody/Toy Story)

Dow 10,342.00 +85.05 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 1,947.81 +14.74 (+0.76%)
S&P 500 1,168.89 +7.72 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.226 +0.40 (+0.96%)

NYSE Volume 703,646,000
Nasdaq Volume 588,831,000

11:00AM: Indices spike to new highs as oil prices plummet following larger than expected inventory builds... The EIA has reported the 12th build in crude oil supplies (+2.6 mln versus forecasts of +1.25 mln) in 13 weeks and a build of 2.2 mln barrels in gasoline inventories (consensus +875K)... Crude oil futures, which have been weak most of the morning, fell to an intra-day low of $48.90/bbl immediately after the report, but have since recovered and trade near $49.80/bbl (+$0.30)... However, with oil prices still trading below $50/bbl, the market has held its ground at sharply higher levels... NYSE Adv/Dec 2154/820, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1784/874

[UpInArms]

43. US Airways restates results

Bankrupt airline revises its first-quarter net loss to $282M due to charges from pension plan.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/04/news/fortune500/usair.reut/

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Bankrupt US Airways said Wednesday it took a $91 million charge related to the termination of three benefit pension plans in its recently reported first quarter.

Consequently, the company's net loss for the quarter was $282 million, or $5.13 a share, as opposed to the net loss of $191 million reported last Friday.

The No. 7 U.S. carrier repeated that it plans to exit bankruptcy in the middle of 2005. US Airways has until May 31 to file a business plan without interference from creditors.

The airline has been weakened along with the rest of the industry by soaring fuel costs, weak revenue and competition from low-cost rivals.

...more...

Not to worry, the taxpayers will take that pension liability on happily! We'll just need to sign a few more newly minted treasury notes! :sarcasm:

[Tace]

44. MOGAMBO GURU: 'Something's Going On"

by Richard Daughty -- The angriest guy in economics

--Chuck Butler, president of the Everbank and author of the of the Daily Pfennig column, says, "Looking at the spreads in the forward market, one has to conclude something's going on." And I am here to tell you that no more scary words were ever spoken, as I have seen too, too many movies where the cowboys are sneaking up to take a look at the Indian encampment, and there they all were, decked out in war paint, dancing and whooping it up around their campfire with drums going "boomity boom boom." After watching for a few moments, one cowboy leans over and whispers to the other one, "Something's going on." Now, I am not sure if Mr. Butler is referring to Indians on the warpath coming to shoot and scalp us and we will have to somehow rescue the beautiful schoolmarm. But the lesson is clear.

The funny thing is that in the same movie when our heroes are trapped in the abandoned mine, and they are watching a fuse burning that is approaching the keg of gunpowder, none of them ever says "Something's going on." They always yell like crazy and everybody starts high-tailing it out of that damned mine! In the movie, the hero and his friends always make it out of danger just in time before it explodes, and then they turn the tables on the bad guys and everybody lives happily ever after. In real life, it "don't work that way."

What is going on may be hinted at by the affable Bill Bonner, whom I assume is affable, although I am not sure. I AM sure, however, that he is succinct, as all our phone calls always end the same way. Ring. Ring. Someone says "Hello?" and I recognize his voice. I say "Hello Bill, this is…" and then there is a click on the phone and the line goes dead, and I can hear those CIA guys who are tapping my phone line giggling and laughing at me. But while he is not answering or slamming down phones, he has the time to write, "As for stocks, the bear market that began in January 2000 seems to have resumed. This, too, comes as a shock to many people, who were pretty sure that they couldn't lose money in stocks -- at least, not over the long run. But the short-run losses that most investors have suffered are getting longer and longer. It's a rare investor who's made any money at all for the last seven or eight years." Eight years? Eight freaking years in a row? This is the wisdom of "investing for the long haul"? Hahahaha! Another Big Wall Street Lie (ABWSL) exposed! Hahahaha!

And the number of people who have made any money in the last few weeks and months are very few, too, reports Eric J. Fry in his Rude Awakening column in at the Daily Reckoning site. "The S&P 500 tumbled below both its 50-day and 200-day moving average on very heavy volume, although this high-profile benchmark did mange yesterday to claw its way back above the 200-day moving average. Unfortunately, the Nasdaq still languishes well below both its 50- and 200-day averages."

But even after eight years of taking loss after loss, people keep on pouring perfectly good money into the stock market. Why? One of the reasons may be illustrated by the following interesting experiment which I lifted wholesale from someplace or somebody, I can't remember which:

(more)

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=613

[UpInArms]

48. thanks Tace!

just because it is so apt, am going to post that next bit:

Tradition
The Psychology Of Civil Self-Policing And Obedience

1. Start with a cage containing five apes. In the cage, hang a banana on a string and put stairs under it. Before long, an ape will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the Banana.

2. As soon as he touches the stairs, spray all of the apes with cold water. After a while, another ape makes an attempt with the same result -- all the apes are sprayed with cold water.

3. Turn off the cold water. If, later, another ape tries to climb the stairs, the other apes will try to prevent it even though no water sprays them.

4. Now, remove one ape from the cage and replace it with a new one. The New ape sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his horror, all of the other apes attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs, he will be assaulted.

5. Next, remove another of the original five apes and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The previous newcomer takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm.

6. Again, replace a third original ape with a new one. The new one makes it to the stairs and is attacked as well. Two of the four apes that beat him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs, or why they are participating in the beating of the newest ape.

7. After replacing the fourth and fifth original apes, all the apes which have been sprayed with cold water have been replaced.

Nevertheless, no ape ever again approaches the stairs. Why not? "Because that's the way it's always been done around here!" Hahahaha!

[Tace]

76. Cool -- I'm Pleased Mogambo Is Letting Me Run It In Full : )

[54anickel]

78. OMG! You have an in with the Great Mogambo? He's my hero!!! n/t

[UpInArms]

50. Boeing Considers Training Facility in India

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2005/05/04/ap1999482.html

U.S.-based Boeing is in talks with Air India on possibility setting up an aircraft maintenance and crew training facility in India after the aircraft maker won an order for 50 new passenger jets from the airline, a company official said Wednesday.

"An aircraft maintenance facility is very critical for India, but our plan is still at an early stage," Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president for sales of Boeing commercial airplanes, told Dow Jones Newswires. "We have gone into a talking stage from a thinking stage."

Last week, Air India, the government-owned international airline, announced that it plans to order 50 passenger aircraft from Boeing Co. at a cost of US$6.8 billion (euro5.23 billion).

According to Indian regulations, the decision requires the approval of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Cabinet. It was not immediately clear when that would happen.

Boeing also is likely to boost sourcing from India's software and other suppliers, Keskar said. "When you have an order of this magnitude, this is required."

...more...

[daleo]

51. The yo-yo appears on its way back up.

But, I think it will head back down soon. Certainly by the time it hits 10,500 - wheee!

[naderzenithnow]

52. We ain't getting any closer to 10,500.

[UpInArms]

53. 12:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,318.65 +61.70 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,944.33 +11.26 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,167.28 +6.11 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.216 +0.30 (+0.72%)

NYSE Volume 1,027,513,000
Nasdaq Volume 823,586,000

12:00PM: Market holds onto the bulk of its gains midday, amid a slew of upbeat corporate news and larger than expected oil inventories after the Fed's corrected policy statement yesterday eased fears of more aggressive Fed tightening... Underpinning a floor of support for stocks early on has been news that Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. plans to increase its stake in General Motors (GM 32.25 +4.48), by acquiring another 5.0% stake (up to 28 mln shares) for a 13.4% premium...

Also contributing to a bullish bias, that has nine out of ten economic sectors trading in positive territory, have been better than expected earnings and a couple of multi-billion dollar mergers... This morning, Time Warner (TWX 17.19 +0.51) beat estimates by a penny while Cigna (CI 96.78 +2.33) handily beat expectations and issued upside FY05 guidance following strong results (last night) from MetLife (MET 42.82 +3.98) and Aon Corp (AOC 24.38 +3.11)... With regards to M&A news, American Tower (AMT 16.95 -0.26) has agreed to buy SpectraSite (SSI 60.55 +4.35) for $3.1 bln while Fresenius Medical Care will acquire Renal Care Group (RCI 45.60 +6.30) for $4 bln...

Financial (+1.4%) has paced the way higher, following better than expected earnings from MET and AOC, as well as an analyst upgrades on Bear Stearns (BSC 96.54 +2.96) and Marsh & McLennan (MMC 29.36 +1.11)... Also surging has been Materials, benefiting from strength in Steel (+2.8%) while Technology has also been strong... Semiconductor has led the charge, amid an SIA report that showed global chip sales in Q1 grew 13.2%, offsetting modest losses in Software, which has been weak after Electronic Arts (ERTS 49.00 -3.90) warned that it will miss analysts' Q1 and FY05 estimates...

[UpInArms]

54. 1:26 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,333.22 +76.27 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,948.15 +15.08 (+0.78%)
S&P 500 1,169.09 +7.92 (+0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.198 +0.12 (+0.29%)

NYSE Volume 1,333,999,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,058,859,000

1:00PM: Stocks continue to hold their own and sport broad-based gains... Leading the charge has been Financial (+1.3%) - the most influential of the 10 economic sectors - as strength in every area has helped the sector trim its poor-performing, year-to-date 6.8% deficit... Insurance Brokers (+7.8%) have been the best performing group, led by AOC's upside earnings surprise and Smith Barney's upgrade on MMC, while Banc of America's upgrade on BSC has given a boost to Investment Banks & Brokerage (+1.8%)...

Life & Health Insurance (+4.3%) has also been strong, benefiting from a 10% surge in MetLife (MET 42.81 +3.97), which handily beat estimates, raised its FY05 earnings outlook and issued upside FY06 guidance last night...NYSE Adv/Dec 2211/939, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1801/1103

12:30PM: Little changed since the last update as a bullish bias remains intact... As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE hold a more than 2 to 1 advantage over decliners while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a 17 to 10 edge over declining issues... The ratio of up to down volumes, however, reflects an even more positive tone on both the Big Board and the Composite, as total volume runs at an above average pace...

Not only have the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all found strong support near key technical levels, but all three have continued to trade above initial resistance levels of 10304, 1166 and 1944, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 2166/953, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1790/1068

[UpInArms]

57. Affluent say investment outlook grim

Poll reveals optimism at new low as rich say market conditions, economy threaten investment plans.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/04/news/economy/wealthy_investors.reut/index.htm

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Optimism among wealthy U.S. investors polled monthly by Chicago-based consultants Spectrem Group fell in April to its lowest level since the survey began in February 2004.

Spectrem said Wednesday its affluent investor index declined 9 points in April to zero, the lowest level since the index was started.

The decline came as wealthy investors expressed concern that "stock market conditions, the economic environment and retirement" are threatening their investment plans.

Spectrem's index measures the investment outlook of 250 U.S. households with $500,000 or more in assets to invest.

Spectrem also measures the investment sentiment of about 100 millionaires within that group, who tend to be slightly more optimistic than the general affluent population.

However, the Spectrem millionaire index also fell sharply in April, losing 10 points as it declined to a "mildly bullish" level of 11, near its all time low of seven.

...more...

Oh no! Where will they put all their money!

:nopity:

[Renew Deal]

59. Wall Street Beat: Earnings dampen tech market

Prospects for growth are uncertain

By Marc Ferranti, IDG News Service
April 28, 2005

NEW YORK - So far this month, earnings season has underscored the uncertainty of prospects for growth in the technology sector. Last week's strong financial reports from sector bellwethers including Intel (Profile, Products, Articles), EMC (Profile, Products, Articles) and Google (Profile, Products, Articles) sparked the biggest one-day jump in the Nasdaq Composite Index in a year. But mixed results this week, plus a sell-off of shares as traders capitalized on last week's good news to make some money, has served to again deflate the Nasdaq.

Some macro-economic concerns were relieved midweek, when an oil-inventory report brought down oil prices. But that provided only a temporary boost to the Nasdaq index, which over the course of the week drifted lower. So far this year, the Nasdaq Index is down about 11 percent. The Nasdaq is considered to be one of the indicators of confidence in the technology sector generally, since that market is weighted so heavily toward tech stocks.

Facing caution in corporate buying plans, Microsoft (Profile, Products, Articles) Thursday reported revenue for the first calendar quarter that fell short of analyst expectations as well as its own prior guidance. Though the software titan nearly doubled its profit, earning $2.56 billion in the quarter, revenue rose by only 5 percent year-on-year to $9.62 billion, shy of analyst expectations of $9.83 billion, according to Thomson First Call. Prior to the announcement, which came after the market closed, company shares dropped $0.54 to close at $24.45.

Internet companies, which fared well earlier in the earnings season, did not look that good this week. Though Amazon.com (Profile, Products, Articles) Inc. reported on Tuesday that its revenue grew in the first quarter, its income dropped to $78 million, down from net income of $111 million, in 2004's first quarter. The drop was due to a hit the company took on taxes, but also, as analysts pointed out, to all the money that the company is spending to set itself apart from other Internet retailers. This highlights the fact that Internet retail market competition will continue to be turbulent. In addition, though the company's international sales increased 28 percent, that was lower than the 43 percent growth one year earlier. Amazon Wednesday closed down $0.99, at $31.72.
<snip>

http://www.infoworld.com/article/05/04/28/HNwallstreetbeat_1.html?source=NLC-BUS2005-05-04

[UpInArms]

60. Pool Time: Blackouts or Brownouts for the summer?

1:36pm 05/04/05 FERC: CONN. SEEN FACING TIGHT SUMMER POWER SUPPLY

1:37pm 05/04/05 FERC: OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN STATES HYDROPOWER "NOT GOOD"

1:35pm 05/04/05 FERC: MOST OF U.S. HAS ENOUGH ELECTRICITY FOR SUMMER

1:36pm 05/04/05 FERC: HIGHER FUEL COSTS SEEN BOOSTING POWER PRICES

Here's the rules:

Name the state and what color (black/brown), give an estimated date of such occurrence.

Winner gets:

a) a new car



b) to spend their summer with an out of control teenager



c) a virtual beer



(prizes may vary depending on cost and availability)

[UpInArms]

61. FERC sees higher summer power prices

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38476.573279375-835031433&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that most of the United States will have adequate electricity supplies this summer, but that parts of Connecticut continue to struggle with tight supplies. The commission, in its annual summer assessment, warned that the outlook for hydroelectric supplies in the western states was "not good" due to lingering drought in the Northwest, and that rising fossil fuel prices would likely drive up the cost of electricity bills nationwide.

[UpInArms]

62. 2:22 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,370.59 +113.64 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 1,957.20 +24.13 (+1.25%)
S&P 500 1,173.51 +12.34 (+1.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184 -0.02 (-0.05%)

NYSE Volume 1,591,305,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,292,895,000

2:00PM: Renewed buying interest lifts the major averages to their best levels of the session... A recent pullback in crude oil futures to below $50/bbl, even though the commodity remains positive on the day, has arguably provided some of the new buying activity in stocks... Perhaps also improving sentiment has been some resolve on the part of bond traders, who have stepped in to pare losses on the 10-year...

While the benchmark note (-4/32) has only erased the gains generated from yesterday's late day inadvertent Fed-error rally, it appears that not even the threat of new supply (i.e. 30-yr bonds) can deter the market from focusing on Friday's employment data... NYSE Adv/Dec 2315/897, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1885/1082

1:30PM: Major averages continue to trade near session highs amid spirited leadership from a number of blue chip industry groups... On the Dow, news of Tracinda Corp.'s increased stake in GM to 8.84%, as well as a Merrill Lynch upgrade and perhaps some short-covering, have lit a fire under shares of General Motors (GM 31.98 +4.21), as 25 of the 30 components remain positive... Also posting gains in excess of 1.0% have been JPM and AIG, taking advantage of widespread strength in Financial, as well as CAT, DD, DIS, HOM and MRK...

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 67.82 -0.91), however, has fallen 1.3% amid safety concerns surrounding some of its drug-coated stents...NYSE Adv/Dec 2305/886, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1852/1090

[nolabels]

63. I remember the them old days when interest rates went up stocks went down

Are we living on the other side of the mirror?

[naderzenithnow]

64. No, still a lot of good will hope that W can piratize SS out there.

They will never give up because it's their only hope to privitize the assets and push all the losses onto the American public. This is a new ongoing debate forever just like abortion or whatever. The have managed the largest part of the drop in the polls and they feel they found the bottom and will only fight back from here. Going to get long and bloody with average americans suffering badly.

[UpInArms]

65. and it seems that the furniture

is affixed to the ceiling :shakeshead:

[MARALE]

67. The 2:00 pixies are at it again!

They are really work'n hard today, its hard work!

[UpInArms]

68. 3:00 EST numbers (party! party! party!)

Dow 10,369.79 +112.84 (+1.10%)
Nasdaq 1,958.12 +25.05 (+1.30%)
S&P 500 1,173.89 +12.72 (+1.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182 -0.04 (-0.10%)

NYSE Volume 1,775,665,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,456,335,000

[UpInArms]

69. Cigna Profit Surges in 1Q, Plans Job Cuts (1700 jobs)

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2005/05/04/ap2000473.html

Health insurer Cigna Corp. said Wednesday that first-quarter earnings soared more than six-fold from last year, due to improved results from its health care, insurance and international businesses and a gain on the sale of its retirement benefits business.

The company also said it planned to eliminate about 1,700 positions in 2005, for which it took a charge of $33 million in the first quarter. The cuts, which represent about 6 percent of the work force, are being made through a combination of layoffs and attrition in the health care business and supporting areas.

Its shares rose $2.32, or 2.5 percent, to $96.77 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange, surpassing its 52-week closing high of $94.60 and its highest level in nearly three years.

Net income jumped to $436 million, or $3.28 per share, for the three months ended March 31 from $68 million, or 48 cents per share, a year ago. The latest results included a gain of $169 million on the retirement benefits business sale.

...more...

[naderzenithnow]

71. Nice. The New New New New Economy. Whhaaaa????

[UpInArms]

75. welcome to the looking glass

Cigna net eclipses estimates

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B361639CE%2DD2D6%2D4EF3%2D8EE0%2DC91341C1A9BC%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares in Cigna Corp. traded higher Wednesday after the managed-care giant said first-quarter profit exceeded Wall Street's target by a wide margin.

Philadelphia-based Cigna's (CI: news, chart, profile) stock added $2.32, or 2.5%, to finish at $96.77. Shares set a 52-week high at $99 soon after the opening bell.

Before the markets opened, Cigna said net income rose to $436 million, or $3.28 a share, from $68 million, or 48 cents, earned in the same period last year.

In terms of adjusted income from operations, the insurer earned $297 million, or $2.24 a share, up from $253 million, or $1.79 a share, in the 2004 first quarter. On that basis, analysts were looking, for profit, on average, of $1.51 a share.

...more...

And since they had so much money, they needed to can a few (1700) employees!

"Cigna's earnings demonstrated the earnings power of this reinvigorated managed-care company. Driven by better earnings throughout the organization, the company appears to be well on its way to industry leading profitability," said Prudential Equity analyst David Shove in a note to clients.

Cigna's revenue fell to $4.35 billion from $4.72 billion, reflecting lower contributions from premiums and fees and from net investment income. Analysts' outlook was for revenue of $4.02 billion for the latest quarter.

[UpInArms]

70. Crude closes up 63 cents at $50.13 bbl

3:12pm 05/04/05 JUNE CRUDE CLOSES AT $50.13, UP 63 CENTS

[Renew Deal]

72. IDC downgrades 2005 global IT spending growth forecasts

Worsening economic conditions in Western Europe, Japan lead to lowering of spending forecast

By Dan Nystedt, IDG News Service
May 04, 2005

International Data Corp. lowered its growth forecast for global information technology spending this year, due mainly to weakness in Europe and Japan, the market researcher said Wednesday.

IT spending in Europe is now expected to grow by only 4.4 percent this year, compared to a previous estimate of 5.8 percent, said Juan Orozco, research manager for worldwide IT markets at IDC, in a telephone interview. Worsening economic conditions in Western Europe caused some large firms to hold back on major IT purchases in the first quarter, IDC noted.

Spending growth in Japan will likely reach just 1.2 percent this year, IDC said, down from 3.2 percent previously, due mainly to weakness in spending on hardware like personal computers and servers. U.S. IT spending growth was revised down slightly to 5.5 percent this year from 6 percent, according to IDC.

The first quarter was broadly stable and brought solid results for many IT vendors, IDC said in a statement. However the market research company noted some mixed signals in the U.S. and that worsening economic conditions began to impact IT spending in Europe towards the end of the quarter.
<snip>

http://www.infoworld.com/article/05/05/04/HNidcdowngrades_1.html?source=NLC-TB2005-05-04

[UpInArms]

73. Investors continue to flee funds, yields still climbing

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE7CA198D%2D6C35%2D4EED%2DB5D4%2D15DBB09E7C49%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Investors pulled $19.6 billion from money-market mutual funds during the week ended May 3, pushing total withdrawals to about $42.9 billion for the past three weeks, investment research firm iMoneyNet reported Wednesday.

Yields continued their upward march as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve's latest quarter-point rate increase. See full story.

Taxable money-fund average yields gained 0.08 percentage point to 2.31%, their highest level since 2.29% in October 23, 2001.

Meanwhile, tax-free fund yields added 0.13 percentage point to 2.19%, climbing above the 2.22% they last reached on July 30, 2001.

Taxable fund assets lost about $17.7 billion for the week to settle at $1.52 trillion, with institutional funds dropping $9.97 billion, and retail portfolios saw assets decline $7.74 billion.

Tax-free assets declined $1.94 billion to $311.78 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. 3:51 EST numbers and blather

heading for the closing:

Dow 10,382.57 +125.62 (+1.22%)
Nasdaq 1,960.65 +27.58 (+1.43%)
S&P 500 1,175.08 +13.91 (+1.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 2,117,265,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,754,068,000

3:30PM: Market showing no signs of slowing, as all of the major indices enjoy gains of more than 1.0%... Garnering much of the focus going into the close has been Consumer Discretionary (+2.0%), with special attention being placed on Retail (+1.4%)... Tomorrow, investors will sift through April same-store sales from more than 50 retailers and, since March results were rather disappointing, the market will be looking for improvement - a tall order since gas prices have remained high and Easter came early (Mar. 27) this year... NYSE Adv/Dec 2448/818, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2012/1009

3:00PM: Range-bound trading persists near session highs, as buyers remain in control of the action... Also mired in a tight range, but under pressure in an up market, has been the dollar... The greenback has realized its worst decline in two weeks against the euro (1.2943), and has been weak against the yen (104.53) - which has traded near its best levels since mid-March - after the Fed said "the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat."... NYSE Adv/Dec 2424/829, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1993/1005

2:30PM: Onward and upward remains a driving mantra today as widespread buying lifts virtually every sector... Aside from Financial, another influential sector also weak on the year (-10.7%) but showing gains across the board today has been Technology (+1.0%)... Pacing the way higher has been Semiconductor, after the SIA showed that worldwide chip sales in Q1 grew 13.2% from a year ago...

[RawMaterials]

77. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10384.64 +127.69 (+1.24%)
Nasdaq 1962.23 +29.16 (+1.51%)
S&P 500 1175.65 +14.48 (+1.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.186% +0.00

NYSE Volume 2,306,989,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,877,843,000



Close: Upbeat news across the board underpinned broad-based buying on heavy volume that closed virtually every sector to the upside... The market, which was poised to open slightly higher amid strong earnings, M&A activity and falling oil prices, got an added boost after Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. announced plans to more than double its existing 3.3% stake in General Motors (GM 32.77 +5.00) with a tender offer for up to 28 mln GM shares at $31 a share - a 13.4% premium...

The news prompted Merrill Lynch to upgrade the stock to Neutral, further fueling a buying frenzy that left the auto maker as the most actively traded issue on the NYSE and accounting for roughly 25% of the Dow's strong performance... But the news was anything but company-specific, as huge gains in Autos and Auto Parts were accompanied by strength in many other consumer cyclical stocks, as well as capital goods (i.e. aerospace) and transportation (i.e. trucking)... Also contributing to a bullish bias that left barely a stone unturned in search of value and closed all ten economic sectors in positive territory, were better than expected earnings and a couple of multi-billion dollar mergers...

This morning, Time Warner (TWX 17.20 +0.52) beat estimates by a penny while Cigna (CI 96.78 +2.33) handily beat forecasts and issued upside FY05 guidance... Last night, MetLife (MET 42.82 +3.98) handily beat estimates, raised its FY05 earnings outlook and issued upside FY06 guidance while Aon Corp (AOC 24.38 +3.11) beat expectations by $0.14... With regards to M&A activity, American Tower (AMT 16.95 -0.26) agreed to buy SpectraSite (SSI 60.55 +4.35) for $3.1 bln while Fresenius Medical Care agreed to acquire Renal Care Group (RCI 45.60 +6.30) for $4 bln...

Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary (+2.0%) paced the way higher ahead of April same-store sales figures from more than 50 retailers... Financial (+1.9%) - the most influential of the 10 economic sectors - was strong across the board... Insurance Brokers (+8.9%) was one of the best performing S&P groups, led by AOC's upside earnings surprise and Smith Barney's upgrade on Marsh & McLennan (MMC 29.36 +1.11), while Banc of America's upgrade on Bear Stearns (BSC 96.54 +2.96) provided a boost to Brokerage (+3.7%)...

Aside from Financial, another influential sector also posting year-to-date losses but realizing widespread gains today was Technology... Semiconductor led the charge, as all 19 components of the PHLX Semi Index surged after the SIA showed that worldwide chip sales in Q1 grew 13.2% from a year ago... Even Software (+0.6%) which was weak most of the session amid an earnings warning from Electronic Arts (ERTS 49.20 -3.70) turned positive late in the day... The Materials (+1.5%) sector was also strong, benefiting from a weak dollar and renewed interest in Steel stocks... The dollar was weak against the euro (1.2943) and yen (104.53) after the Fed said "the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat."...

Also taking advantage of dollar weakness, but more notably a recovery in oil prices, was Energy (+1.2%), despite an earnings miss from Devon Energy (DVN 44.62 -0.35)... Crude oil futures ($50.13/bbl $+0.63), which sold off following a bearish report from the Energy Dept. that showed larger than expected inventory builds, closed up 1.3% amid some short-covering... Crude oil supplies rose 2.6 mln barrels (consensus +1.25 mln) - the 12th increase in 13 weeks - while gasoline inventories rose 2.2 mln barrels (consensus +875K)...

Even Utility, which was weak amid downside Q2 guidance from Dominion Resources (D 72.41 +2.74), eked out a modest gain... Bonds, however, finished lower after the U.S. Treasury said it may reintroduce the 30-year bond, as the benchmark 10-year note closed down 5 ticks to yield 4.18%... Since the 30-year bond was abruptly suspended in Oct. 2001 over concerns about costs, Federal debt has increased almost 30% - surging to $4.7 tln from $3.3 tln...

Separately, the April ISM services index - today's only economic report - slipped to 61.7 (consensus 61.0) from a March reading of 63.1, but since the data don't necessarily provide good reads on the economy, the report was largely ignored... DJTA +1.7, DJUA +0.1, DOT +1.9, Nasdaq 100 +1.7, Russell 2000 +1.8, SOX +2.4, S&P Midcap 400 +1.4, XOI +1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 2521/801, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2095/958