STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 21 April

[ozymandius]

Thursday April 21, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 275 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 129 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 185 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1243
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 19, 2005

Dow... 10,012.36 -115.05 (-1.14%)
Nasdaq... 1,913.76 -18.60 (-0.96%)
S&P 500... 1,137.50 -15.28 (-1.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.21% +0.01 (+0.19%)
Gold future... 436.70 +2.30 (+0.53%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

INFLATION WORRIES TRUMP CORPORATE EARNINGS

Throughout the morning, the broad stock averages tried valiantly to add to yesterday’s gains amid strong corporate earnings reports, but fears of higher interest rates took center stage today. Right out of the gate stocks opened higher, especially technology shares, with good reports coming from Intel and Yahoo after the bell yesterday. There were solid earnings reports from a number of different sectors, but the Labor Department spoiled the party with the CPI showing worse than expected inflation data. Consensus expectations for the headline number was for a gain of 0.5% and the reported number was 0.6%, while the core-rate came in with a gain of 0.4%, double analysts expectations of 0.2%. The bond market sold-off immediately driving interest rates higher, but buying came right back into Treasuries as the stock market began selling-off through the lunch hour. Stock market bulls are looking for a rally here after the brutal sell-off last week, but if these corporate earnings aren’t enough to bait investors back into stocks, what will it take?

-cut-

Yesterday the PPI was released with the headline number of prices moving higher by 0.7%. On an annualized basis, that represents an inflation rate of 8.4% and the markets yawned at the number, sending interest rates lower. Today we get the CPI headline number for March at 0.6% or 7.2% annualized. If you invest your money in one-year Treasuries, you earn a yield of 3.25% before taxes. The proof is in the pudding that the Fed is way behind the curve in raising interest rates. They will do everything possible to remain behind the curve and keep interest rates artificially low, but must also keep an eye on the strength of the dollar. Conservatively speaking, we have inflation coming in at roughly 7-8% and the U.S. reports GDP growth at 3.8%. If we take away monetary inflation, it sure looks like we have some serious contractions in our economy!

-cut-

Look at what happened to U.S. asset prices as a whole today. They basically all went down. The Dow Industrials off by 115 points, all maturities of Treasury paper declined in price (higher interest rates), and the U.S. dollar declined against all major currencies. Please notice the three items listed (stocks, bonds and the dollar) are all “paper” assets. Now let’s look at what happened to some select “tangible” asset prices in today’s trading. Oil moved higher by 33 cents a barrel to $53.90 after the Energy Department said crude inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels. Corn, wheat, coffee, hogs and cattle all moved higher. Gold and silver added to yesterday’s gains and Dr. Copper moved higher by 2.4% to $1.507 a pound telling us this commodity boom is very far from over. What seemed to bother the bulls on CNBC was the fact that we have very obvious signs of an economic slowdown, but it is mixed with rising inflation…that is where they coined the term “stagflation.”

-cut-

Silver supply has been in deficit to demand for about 14 years, as the market lives off existing above ground inventories to supplement the lack of mine supply. Gold supply is decreasing, especially as miners in South Africa close non-profitable operations. We have not invested enough money for infrastructure to meet our growing needs for natural gas. A Bloomberg article today says, “U.S. imports of LNG increased 27% last year, and probably will rise another 20% this year, according to U.S. Energy Department data. Imports may increase another 49% next year, the agency forecasts.” My interpretation of that sentence is pretty simple; we don’t have enough! We need more natural gas, but guess what…China is building a fleet of LNG carrier ships to secure their own supply and India wants to build a gas pipeline from Iran to India. Competition is increasing for available energy supplies.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[AnneD]

3. Morning Marketeers

:donut: Think I want to buy stock in a company that sells red ink-I think I may finally make some money. Happy Hunting....and watch out for the bears.

[radfringe]

2. how strong is the 10k barrier?

12.37 points will bust through the 10k psychological barrier -- will we see it today?

will the lemmings SELL SELL SELL or will they BUY BUY BUY?

futures are up -- could be an indicator that the bargain hunters are out in force -- will it be enough?

[HereSince1628]

11. The FTSE was up...how much foreign support will there be

at the 10K barrier?

At any rate, I expect the 10K barrier to be broken quickly, but I don't think we'll have a picture of the reaction until closer to noon.

[JNelson6563]

4. Just look at those futures!

Mornin' Marketeers!

Sorry I have missed all the action! My computer crashed and I had a problem signing on. The Admins were helpful but the trouble was at my end. Apparently my hubby fixed whatever it was last night after work though so here I am, finally! I read up on all the great stuff you all were posting though, whew!

So, futures are shiney and bright this morning! What is driving that? Another oil executive get 30+ million bonus? Massive lay-offs announced? There must be some "good news" driving this....

Frankly I don't have much faith the day will be as pretty as the futures indicate but hey, what do I know? ;-)

Will check back--
Julie

[highnooner]

5. Technically, the stock markets are as oversold

as they can get. I would not be surprised if there is a rebound today. It may be short-lived though. However, the 11,000 ceiling will not be passed for a long time. The market is still consolidating from the bubble of 1999/2000.

[Maeve]

6. Looks like Old Home Week around here!

Radfringe, Julie...I had to jump in today!

Yeah, we'll probably see a bounce today, if the bulls can pull together. But I wouldn't bet we've hit a bottom...let's see how the reports come in.

[Trojan]

7. Prediction ... Dow and Gold

By June 1ST 2005 the Dow will be at 9600 and Gold at $475.00

On a scale of 1 to 10 I'd say it is an 8 that it will occur. Gold should move along with Gold stocks within 2 weeks. There is a lot of catching up to do. The Euro should now move to 1.35

Anyone care to offer their thoughts on this ?

Regards All

I also have not posted here often in the last year...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

8. Won't be long after that when we invade Iran....

...I wonder what effect that will have on the market in combination with all of the other normal market-affecting forces?

[ozymandius]

23. Iran has the capability of shutting down the strait of Hormuz.

That means little to no oil flowing from the Persian Gulf - no oil heading west.

[Tace]

25. Not To Mention Those Cruise Missiles That Can Take Out US

aircraft carriers. That would be ugly.

[54anickel]

31. Willie had an interesting take on Iran that I posted earlier this week.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie040505.html

snip>

The sleepy US press & media has given weapons of mass destruction 50 hours of air time for every 5 minutes of serious discussion of petro sales in euros. Saddam Hussein's defiant sale of Iraqi oil for euros made for a highly profitable maneuver. In my analysis, Russia is attempting to take the front position to attack the Petro-Dollar system directly, first by selling oil and gas to Europe in euro terms, second by attempting to lead OPEC in secret fashion with little publicized meetings. OPEC refuses to confront the USA, since it owns no military and is quite dependent upon the USA for its protection. They sell us oil; we protect their leadership (see Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and Qatar). Russia is willing to confront the USA, an adversarial role which it seems unwilling or unable to be put to rest, a certain remnant from the Cold War. The fact that Iran nuclear armament is no longer in the news in the last few weeks speaks volumes about the tactical weakness of the USA. Our nation is extraordinarily vulnerable to sales of USTBonds by foreign central banks, and to sales of foreign produced oil in euros (not USDollars). In my view, Putin showed Bush his weapons last month, and the USA backed off.

Behind the scenes is anger by Russia for the construction of numerous small bases for the US Military in former Soviet Republics like Uzbekistan and Kazakstan. Their erection might have helped to drain world cement supplies last year. We seem in Putin's eyes to be encircling Russia, who might retaliate by knocking the Petro-Dollar system off its foundation pillars. The new Shanghai Cooperative Group represents a potential supply network which will have member nations of China, India, Russia, former Soviet Republics, and Iran as its core. New nations are being actively courted, such as Venezuela and Brazil. Energy (crude oil & natural gas), industrial metals, and more are to be bought and sold by this new network, outside OPEC and its gaggle of disunity and diverse puppet strings held by Washington DC. In my view the "COOP" is likely to have been organized to be a direct assault on the Petro-Dollar, if not a consciously designed network to blockade the USA from the supply chain. The COOP is a direct answer to the corrupted OPEC cartel, which seems overly influenced by US leaders. The Saudi oil minister sounds as though he has been trained in FedSpeak, when he talks of hiking oil output from already strained capacity (if it exists). It is highly likely that the COOP creates the framework to undermine the dollar-based supply system that is the PetroDollar. My guess is the euro will be the COOP's transactional currency.

The latest development is the creation of an Iranian commodity exchange market. The US press has yet to report on it, despite the extreme importance. Would even 10% of the viewing audience understand the story or its importance??? So why bother to air it? Its plan is to sell crude oil and natural gas in euro denomination. So far China is a central customer to participate in the new exchange. Again, behind the scenes, deals are being struck. The CIA and other agencies warn that China is selling far more than scud missiles to Iran, which fears an invasion by the USA. Perhaps the most important factor of all which pertains to Iran is the decision made independently by at least three multi-national energy firms (including Agip of Italy and Elf Aquitaine of France) to construct an oil pipeline south from the Caspian republics through Iran. A pipeline through Georgia or Chechnya might not come to completion, due to smaller measured oil deposits in the surrounding Caspian region. If the key oil pipelines are to routed through Iran, then Iran rises in strategic importance almost beyond what words can describe. Look for stories by the obedient lapdog US press & media on Iran's nuclear threat, which might be about as accurate as Iraqi warnings weapons of mass destruction. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. NOT ME. Iran sits in the most important location in the entire Persian Gulf, and they are not friendly nor cooperative with the USA. Any attack of Iran by US Forces will involve the Russian and Chinese militaries !!!

[54anickel]

46. Uh-oh, check out this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1410913

[ozone_man]

56. They have been moving together since early 2003.

They will both go down together. My prediction: DOW 9,000, gold 400 by June 2005.

https://chart.etrade.com/cgi-bin/rgraph?Symbol=DJIND&e1=0&e2=0&e3=0&i1=None&i2=None&i3=None&i4=None&olay=None&ci=None&cs=hui,xau&gr=1&gs=Medium&tic=2-year&rl=&event=1&int=&leg=1>yp=Default

[Maeve]

9. Jobless Claims fall to 296,000

Jobless claims fall to 296,000 in latest week from 332,000 in prior week, biggest one-week decline since Dec. 2001. Details coming.

Let the rally begin.

[Maeve]

10. Details(where the devil is)

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 36,000 to 296,000 By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits plunged by 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 296,000 in the week ending April 16, the Labor Department said Thursday. It matched the lowest level for this business cycle. It's the largest one-week decline since December 2001. A Labor Department official cautioned, however, that seasonal adjustment issues surrounding the Easter holiday may have distorted the decline in new claims. The four-week average of initial claims dropped by 8,500 to 330,250, a four-week low. Meanwhile, the number of people receiving weekly benefit checks fell by 17,000 to 2.64 million in the week ending April 9.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={5C8E4983-DB75-4749-8D92-5F05BB7825A5}&siteid=

[ozymandius]

18. Good morning Maeve and everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Has the cast come off yet? How is your wrist?

Ozy :hi:

[Maeve]

22. Next Tuesday it should come off

And there will be much rejoicing...wrist feels as good as it can stuck in fiberglass and I think I'll play guitar again someday. Shoot, I just look forward to using my mouse properly again!

[54anickel]

12. Investors Suffer Whiplash

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

The past couple of weeks have witnessed some severe swings in investor sentiment. At the beginning of the month, investors were thinking that the economy might be overheating. That was diminished by the March employment report. By the end of last week, investors were worried that the economy entered into another “soft patch” in March. This week investor breathed a sigh of relief after producer prices showed that inflation appeared contained. This lasted a full day until the consumer price index rose more than expected and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book added anecdotal evidence that pricing pressure is working through to the end user. Not only do investors have to try to figure out a convoluted macroeconomic backdrop, but companies are reporting first quarter earnings as well. At this point, corporate earnings and future guidance has only added to the confusion surrounding the markets.

snip>

First quarter earnings season got in full swing this week. 65.3% of the 147 companies in the S&P 500 beat analysts’ estimates. First quarter earnings now appear to have increased by 12.0%, compared to 7.6% at the beginning of the quarter and 8.2% at the beginning of April. As good as first quarter earnings appear, investors are more concerned with the outlook for the second quarter and the rest of the year. Unfortunately, companies are not nearly as optimistic going forward. While it is a small sample, there have been 25 S&P 500 companies that have updated guidance for the second quarter and 64% of them have lowered guidance with only 20% rising guidance. This compares with 31% lowering guidance last year and 48% last quarter.

Several of the major homebuilders reported earnings this week. DR Horton reported earnings that were ahead of Wall Street forecasts. Average new order price increased 15%, largest increase since the first quarter of 2003. ARMs accounted for 33% of originations with 25% of those interest only mortgages. New orders increased 7% on a unit basis and 23% on a dollar basis. This increased the backlog by 17% and 33% respectively. Results from MDC Holdings were similar. Earnings were 35% better than a year ago. The company did reduce expectations for the second quarter due to weather delays in the Western part of the country. The results of MDC did raise a few concerns with analysts. The percent of ARMs was quite a bit higher at 45% with 75% of those being interest only. Plus, the number of new orders in California dropped by 35%, and its cancellation rate rose to 20.2% from 18.6% last year. However, prices in California rose 34%. The company did say that it saw more investor activity in Las Vegas and Phoenix.

snip>

Obviously, the big earnings debacle was General Motors. Investors were clearly looking for a detailed plan to fix North American automotive operations. Instead, investors heard the same refrain of product development and cost cutting. On the conference call, one analyst pointed that that its competitors are also working on new products and “the math doesn’t seem to work” since GM cannot do enough on the labor side to get to breakeven. Additionally, management withdrew future guidance because of “uncertainty in industry forecasts and ongoing health care issues.” Without spending time on Ford, it cut second quarter production by 5%.

During the conference calls several companies mentioned that the second half of March was weaker than the first half. While Easter occurred in March this year, most companies were not blaming the holiday shift for the slower activity. One of the more notable examples of business activity declining throughout the quarter was from Manpower. The leading employment staffing company said that its US staffing business in January increased by 4.1%. Growth slowed in February to 3.0% and dropped to 0.5% in March. Additionally, the company said it has not seen anything indication that activity picked up in April.

more...

[54anickel]

13. As Inflation Outpaces Wages, Spending at Risk

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=8241262§ion=news

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. inflation has been climbing more quickly than workers' wages for nearly a year now, raising the prospect of an economic slowdown as consumers, pressed by higher energy costs, cut back spending.

snip>

The industry group also noted retailers devoted to high-end, luxury goods should fare better than those catering to lower or middle income households, highlighting the difficulties faced by the average American family.

"Real wages continue to deteriorate for many U.S. workers," said senior economist Jared Bernstein at the Economic Policy Institute. "This marks the 11th consecutive month wherein annual wage growth failed to outpace inflation."

snip>

All this comes at a time when Americans are deeper in debt than ever before. Between credit cards, students loans, auto financing and mortgages, the total debt of American households exceeds $10 trillion. That amounts to well over 90 percent of yearly national economic output.

more...

[54anickel]

14. The Short View: Hedge funds barely better than cash

Only get this little blurb without a subscription. :-(

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8b6fe606-b1a4-11d9-8c61-00000e2511c8.html

Hedge funds have had a disappointing start to 2005. According to Edhec, the French business school, the average fund of hedge funds made just 1 per cent in the first quarter of the year. For US or European investors, that is barely better than cash; UK investors would have done better to keep their money in the building society.

April may also prove to be a difficult month. According to Jacob Schmidt, director of hedge fund research at Allenbridge, some commodity trading advisers, or managed futures funds, have suffered heavy losses this month. Edhec figures show that CTAs lost 4.3 per cent in the first quarter.

The rest of this article is for FT.com subscribers only

[54anickel]

15. China to Consider Neighbors in Yuan Move

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=RFSIFFXBBE33UCRBAELCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8247567

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN (Reuters) - China will consider the effects on its economy as well as those of neighboring countries before changing its fixed currency policy, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing told Reuters on Thursday.

Asked about U.S. pressure for China to float the yuan and the possibility of Beijing changing its policy, Li said any decision would be based "on the actual conditions of China and the interests of both the Chinese and our neighbors, even the whole world's interests."

snip>

Li's comments came just days after President Bush said that China appeared to be considering an interim step toward floating the yuan and that Washington was urging Beijing to take that step as soon as possible.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow also pressured China to make the yuan more flexible, saying it was a top priority for the administration's international economic policy.

more...

[54anickel]

16. Why Japan And China Are Squaring Off

Doesn't mention much about the US meddling that we've read elsewhere

http://beta.news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20050420/bs_bw/b3930102mz015

snip>

For years, optimists in China and Japan have argued that breakneck economic integration of the two Asian powers would trump festering historical enmities. After all, last year, China overtook the U.S. as Japan's biggest trading partner, and two-way trade clocked in at $211 billion. But the Sino-Japanese strategic rivalry is real, intense, and likely to turn more contentious in the months ahead.

snip>

What's behind the tension is far more than longtime differences over Japan's past aggressions. Japan and China are locked in a fierce contest for economic and diplomatic leadership in Asia. Unable to bolster Japan's economy much since he took office in 2001, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has increasingly played the nationalist card to shore up support at home and project a more assertive Japan around the world. This has involved everything from controversial visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where war criminals as well as war dead are commemorated, to proposed constitutional reforms that would allow Japan to take robust military action beyond its borders. The Chinese, feeling their economic and diplomatic influence on the rise, are doing their best to counter Tokyo. "They think enough is enough. And they probably believe they are in a decent position internationally to do this," says Eric Heginbotham, senior fellow for Asia Studies at New York's Council on Foreign Relations.

snip>

One of the sorest points will be the debate over the U.N. Security Council. Japan, the U.N.'s second-biggest contributor, wants to be admitted to the Security Council as part of a major U.N. reform package now under discussion. China, one of the Council's veto-wielding permanent members, opposes expansion of the Security Council -- an opposition widely seen as a move to block Tokyo. To Japan's chagrin, even longtime ally Washington is waffling. The Bush Administration is insisting on a "broad consensus" at the U.N. before signing off. "It is not a slam dunk for Japan or any other country," says one senior Administration official.

The trouble for Koizumi is that all the long-term trends argue in favor of China taking a leadership role in Asia. China's gross domestic product is about one-third the size of Japan's $4.5 trillion GDP at current exchange rates. But China, with its double-digit growth, seems all but certain to overtake Japan toward the end of the next decade. China's $30 billion defense budget is growing at a 10%-plus pace and isn't that far off from Japan's current budget of $45 billion. None of this adds up to harmonious relations between Tokyo and Beijing. And much as it pains the Japanese to admit it, China will increasingly be calling the shots.

more...

[naderzenithnow]

17. Who leaked to the futures traders?

[RawMaterials]

19. 5 imminent problems in China's economy

China's economy which grew at a rate of 9.5 percent for the first three months of the year faces 5 dilemmas for its sustained rise.

The severe draught in some parts of south China and southwest China this spring and the soaring production materials for agriculture combine to add difficulty in summer harvest and increase in farmers¡¯ income.

Zheng Jingping, spokesman with the National Bureau of Statistics proposed more direct subsidies to farmers to offset losses caused by price hike on one hand and safeguard the rural market order on the other.

The 22.8 percent surge of the fixed assets investment on the base of the 43 percent rise last year remains a source of concern. Experts warn against the spending spree on real estate, urban construction, power plants and local mega-projects.

Zheng vowed to keep land and credit under close surveillance. He also reiterated that prudent fiscal policy has taken the place of the proactive one this year.

The CPI which notched up 2.8 percent for the first quarter seems relaxing but still calls for special attention for its future tendency.

Upstream products were priced more than 10 percent higher in the first three months, which in turn would very likely push prices of home appliances up. Oil prices on the world market are still vibrating at a high level. And there are signs indicating inflated utility bills.

However, Zheng saw bright sides, especially grain and food prices which are expected to be stable this year, as well as supplies of downstream products which exceed demand.

Energy supply and transportation availability still lagged behind the demand. The serious shortfall of coal supply has caused production beyond the full capacity, which has in turn cost lives of miners.

Experts suggest more supply on the condition of guaranteed safe production, faster development of infrastructure and economic efforts on balanced supply and demand.

Finally, sectors with heavy pollution and energy consumption were continuing to gear up their production and exports from Jan. to Mar. As a result, the GDP per unit costs more, instead of less, energy.

All of these, experts urged, means the upgrading of industrial structure is a pressing task right now so that energy and resources can be saved as efficiently as possible.

The National Bureau of Statistic released figures for the economic operation in China for the first quarter on April 20.








http://english.people.com.cn/200504/21/eng20050421_182163.html

[54anickel]

20. Bank of Japan set to predict yet more deflation

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c32ce34c-b23e-11d9-bcc6-00000e2511c8.html

The Bank of Japan is poised to abandon its forecast of a return to inflation this fiscal year, delaying an exit from zero interest rates until the year to March 2007 at the earliest, according to Yutaka Yamaguchi, former deputy governor.

snip>

Mr Yamaguchi, who oversaw the introduction of the current ultra-loose monetary policy from March 2001, said the so-called quantitative easing framework had failed in its principal aim of stimulating economic and price activity. Under quantitative easing the bank floods the market with excess liquidity.

The aim had been specifically to promote an expansion of banks’ balance sheets, he said, but in fact these had contracted ever since the policy was introduced. “It is evident that the core transmission mechanism of this policy did not function,” he said.

Mr Yamaguchi’s assessment of the purpose of quantitative easing contradicts the present board's official interpretation. The current board says quantitative easing was introduced to stabilise the financial system, which it achieved. Mr Yamaguchi said, by contrast, that the real purpose was to fight deflation.

The distinction is important because the BoJ has been talking openly about the possibility of reducing liquidity targets on the grounds that the banking system has stabilised. Some economists have criticised such a move arguing that it would be seen by markets as a tightening, since it was described as a loosening when it was being phased in.

Mr Yamaguchi said it was indeed time to start normalising monetary policy because the economy had proved itself capable of growing even with mild deflation. Zero interest rates punished savers and rewarded borrowers, he said, a distortion that should be ended as soon as possible.


:wow: Abandoning Greenspinism? "Chopper" Ben might have been wrong in his strategy to fight delation? Does this mean it's time to stop cranking out Yen to buy US$? So many questions!!!

[ozymandius]

21. 9:33 markets are open for bidness

Dow
10,102.13
+89.77
(+0.90%)

Nasdaq
1,937.29
+23.53
(+1.23%)

S&P 500
1,146.60
+9.10
(+0.80%)

10-Yr Bond
42.57
+0.46
(+1.09%)

NYSE Volume
29,209,000

Nasdaq Volume
54,625,000

[Maeve]

26. Par-ty! Par-ty!

Dow 10,100.01 +87.65 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,934.98 +21.22 (+1.11%)
S&P 500 1,147.48 +9.98 (+0.88%)

[RawMaterials]

28. 9:40 Blather

9:40AM: Stocks rebound nicely following yesterday's widespread sell-off, as the notion of oversold conditions supported by better than expected Q1 earnings stifles yesterday's revived inflation fears... The majority of S&P companies out with results this morning have again beaten analysts' expectations, further validating that the earnings slowdown that so many expected has been much less severe than feared...

However, while today's reflex rally has clearly improved sentiment heading into more earnings reports, the sustainability of the bounce will arguably depend on ensuing guidance and lower bond yields, as there are no releases on the horizon to underline inflation concerns... Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Greenspan will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on deficits and budget reform at 10:00 ET while Mar. leading indicators (consensus -0.3%) will also be released at the top of the hour...

[54anickel]

32. Great, three Feds are taking the stage again today. Usually not a good

sign for the buck.

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

4:30 am Mar Retail Sales (exp 0.4%, prev 0.2%), 8:30 am Can Feb Retail Sales (exp 0.7%, prev 2.0%) Can Feb Sales ex autos (exp 0.3%, prev 2.4%) 8:30 am US Weekly Jobless claims (exp 326K, prev, 330K) 10:00 am Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks at Senate Budget Committee. 10:00 am Cleveland Fed’s Pianalto. 10:00 am US Mar Leading Indicators (exp -0.3%, prev 0.1%) 2:00 pm Fed Governor Gramlich speaks. 12:00 pm US Apr Philadelphia Fed Index (exp 15.0, prev 11.4)


There will be more food for thought for currency traders seeking to mull the growth prospects if the US economy amid the release of two important coincident indicators; the leading indicators index and the Philly Fed survey, with the former expected to have regained negative territory and the latter to continue its declining trend in April after a 12-point drop in March. If these data come as expected, they should confirm that the US economy has indeed entered a soft patch, which should weigh further on bond yields and the dollar.

An array of speakers from the Fed including Chairman Greenspan are likely to admit that the economy has ran into a temporary slowdown, which might in fact boost US equities on expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of its tightening. Such an impact should be dollar negative.


edit to add a pre-yammering peek at the buck

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.65 Change +0.13 (+0.16%)

Settle 83.52 Settle Time 23:34

Open 83.47 Previous Close 83.52

High 83.79 Low 83.39

Last tick: 2005-04-21 09:50:20 ET
30-min delayed quote

[54anickel]

34. Greenspan Says Budget Deficits May Cause Economy to Stagnate

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aVvp7sLirKec&refer=us

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress record deficits threaten the U.S. economy, and urged lawmakers to cut spending and work toward a balanced budget.

``Our budget position is unlikely improve substantially in the coming years unless major deficit-reducing actions are taken,'' Greenspan said in the text of testimony to the Senate Budget Committee.

The Bush administration projects the federal deficit will reach a record $427 billion dollars in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. The most recent estimate from the Congressional Budget Office is for a deficit of $394 billion. The previous record was $412 billion in fiscal 2004.

``Under existing tax rates and reasonable assumption about other spending, these projections make clear that the federal budget is on an unsustainable path,'' Greenspan said. ``Unless that trend is reversed, at some point these deficits would cause the economy to stagnate or worse.

more...

[ozymandius]

44. existing tax rates`

This idiot was shilling for these same tax rates. Greenscam uttered this his rambling recommendations for wealthy-fare in 2001. So soon since, his advice is already legendary for its incompetency.

[antigop]

24. Snow says "NO" to 30-yr bond -- Wall Street hears "Maybe"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ahWMkPFkeglc&refer=us
>>
Snow asked to see Lehman's research on the U.S. 30-year bond and nothing else. ``That was the first time I've ever heard him say that,'' says Ethan Harris, 48, the firm's chief U.S. economist, who attended the lunch.

The Treasury, concerned about costs, stopped issuing the 30- year bond in 2001, and Snow has vowed not to reissue it. Investors see cracks in that position. They are betting Snow, 65, will change his mind, driven by the need to finance record U.S. budget deficits and by the recent success of European countries in selling bonds maturing as far out as 50 years.

>>

Be sure to catch the last quote.


edit: fixed link

[Roland99]

27. I get a blank page on that link

[54anickel]

29. OMG! Isn't this blasphemy? I didn't realize the Gospels were all about

free trade! Thank goodness this article has set me straight on that account.
:wtf: This is what they talk about at the Christian Businessmen's meetings now? Wow! And I know these meetings are quite wide-spread and well attended by members of many denominations. More of that re-edumaction again.

Should We Buy American?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/buy-american.html

Some of the most vociferous attacks on free trade in recent years have come from religious lobbies, and are led by people who believe that they have the best interests of the workers in mind. They call on us to buy products labeled fair trade, or to boycott growers who employ low-cost labor, or to refuse products made by international corporations operating in the third world, or to join protestors at any international conferences where it is believed that the conspirators inside are seeking to lower barriers to trade. They do all of these things under the conviction that to limit the right to buy and sell is part of the mission of spreading the social gospel.

snip>

But with sin came death and banishment from this garden. Man and woman would have to work to produce. Pain and suffering entered into the world. Time and resources were scarce. But God did not leave the human population with no means to overcome the new limits on what could be consumed. God made it possible for the human population to use intelligence to exchange. People would divide their labor based on their own unique talents and capacities. This division took place between peoples and regions. Trade became a means to achieve a kind of cooperative unity even though the Garden of Eden was nowhere to be found.

Thus was born the concept of free trade.

snip>

Jesus's parables are filled with references to commerce and its ethical obligations. In the story of the Laborers in the Vineyard, we find a vineyard owner who hires based on contract and adheres to that contract even when it meant paying people who worked a full day the same as those who worked only a few hours. There was no talk of fair wages here. The lesson we are taught rests on the right of the owner to make contracts, the right of the laborer to accept or refuse work, and the failure of vision of those workers who complain about the terms after the fact.

[Danmel]

30. Boy their attention spans are short

One day inflation fears, next day, Happy days are here again.

[MARALE]

33. Leading indicators show 'choppy' growth (-.4)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B11CFAB54%2DBCA3%2D427D%2DAE8F%2DC38D79A6216F%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

Economists were expecting the index to fall 0.3%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

"Moderate economic growth continued through the first quarter," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the board. "The economy is expanding, but at a pace that is choppy."

The index is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead. Over the past six months, the leading index is down 0.3%, with 55% of the indicators up over that time.

The coincident index increased 0.2% in March and the lagging index fell 0.1%.

This is putting a damper on things

[naderzenithnow]

35. When's the Philly?

[MARALE]

36. 12:00 EST

Here is a good Econ Calander:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=&

[naderzenithnow]

37. thanks for the calander

[MARALE]

50. U.S. APRIL PHILLY FED 25.3 VS. 11.4 MARCH

More to follow, this should help the market make up for some losses.

[54anickel]

38. FOREX-Dollar recovers as investors await key US data

http://www.reuters.com/financeMarketReportArticle.jhtml?type=usDollarRpt&pageNumber=0

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - The dollar recovered against the euro and yen in New York on Thursday, drawing some support from an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims and adjustment of positions ahead of key U.S. economic data.

snip>

TORN DOLLAR

The dollar has been torn this year between the negative impact of the huge U.S. current account deficit and the country's need to attract foreign capital to offset the gap, and the positive prospect of an accelerated rise in interest rates.

After a higher-than-expected jump in March U.S. consumer prices was reported on Wednesday, investors expressed concern about the possibility of stagflation in the United States -- high inflation and stagnant growth -- clouding the outlook for capital flows into the U.S.

"I think people are much more worried about inflation at this point," said TJ Marta, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, New York.

Higher inflation could mean the need for higher interest rates which could in turn boost the yield appeal on the dollar. But, conversely, higher interest rates could raise worries over growth prospects and depress demand for U.S. assets, bringing the structural problems in the U.S. economy into view.

more...

[naderzenithnow]

39. Could PPT have run up futures to protect 10,000 from Philly?

Because it seems there is little “real” conviction in this bounce.

[54anickel]

40. I don't know but I tend to believe it's not the PPT. Probably just the

usual bottom feeders, bargain hunters and maybe some short covering overnight. 10K is pyschologically significant, but not technically so I don't believe the PPT would bother defending it. It's the chart-watchers and programmed triggers they "aim to please".

Again, the JMHO disclaimer here at the end.

[54anickel]

41. 11:09 and still Lookin' good. Gotta run for the day

Have a great day at the casino :hi:

Dow 10,083.24 +70.88 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,933.26 +19.50 (+1.02%)
S&P 500 1,145.27 +7.77 (+0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 4.251% +0.04
NYSE Volume 690,065,000
Nasdaq Volume 626,703,000

11:00AM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, a larger than expected decline in weekly jobless claims earlier has helped provide a floor of support for equities, as recent indications of economic softness have been bearish...
While the Fed has been focused on the weak labor market for quite some time, a 36K drop in initial claims to a 10-week low of 296K (consensus 329K) - the largest decline in more than three years - during a key week in which the April employment survey was conducted, has somewhat mitigated concerns about slowing economic growth...NYSE Adv/Dec 2124/778, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1811/870

10:30AM: Major indices back off their best levels as the market listens to Greenspan's latest comments... While the Fed Chairman's prepared text has provided little in the way of anything to help improve selling pressure in Treasurys, modest profit taking throughout the Financial sector (-0.1%) - amid rising bond yields - has taken some of the steam out stocks heading into the Q&A session... However, the broader averages continue to hold onto substantial gains... NYSE Adv/Dec 2163/655, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1902/690

[ozymandius]

42. Bye 54anickel.

Have a wonderful rest of the day!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

43. Thanks Ozy. Here's one more question for you.

Does this explain yesterday's money market fund drain of 12B that UIA posted? :shrug:

U.S. Treasuries Fall as Stock Indexes Rise, Jobless Claims Drop

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes fell the most in a month as a rise in stock indexes from their lows of the year damped demand for the haven of government debt. An unexpected decline in jobless claims also pushed prices lower.

Investors found little reason to buy Treasuries with yields at the lowest in two months a day after a measure of inflation rose the most since August 2002. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fixed-income payments. Treasuries gained yesterday as benchmark stock indexes dropped to their lowest of the year.

``I don't think anyone see a lot of value in the Treasury markets with those yield levels,'' said David Brownlee, who manages $7 billion of debt securities at N.L. Capital Management in Montpelier, Vermont. ``Bonds have been following stocks in the past couple of days,'' he said, adding that he would rather buy corporate bonds than Treasuries.

The 4 percent note due February 2015 slid about 5/8, or $6.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 27/32 as of 9:45 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield rose 8 basis points to 4.27 percent. The yield on the two-year note surged 10 basis points to 3.59 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The increase in yield is the most since March 22 -- the day the Federal Reserve said ``pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months.'' Ten-year yields earlier fell to 4.17 percent, the lowest since Feb. 17.

[ozymandius]

45. Money exiting the money market says a number of things to me.

First, this is cash that has been sitting on the sidelines, earning a pittance in a safe haven. That money may be put to work today as bargain hunters look for stocks and bonds that will yield more interest as a way to stay ahead of inflationary erosion of purchasing power. The inflation figures are a clarion call for the overall health of the economy.

I would not be surprised if this money is going into CDs, and 2- or 5-year treasury bonds - or for the really adventurous - corporate bonds. Either case underlines short positions.

There is also reason to believe that the language used by the Fed carries the motive to drive people toward treasury bonds.

Just a guess...

[54anickel]

47. Thanks Ozy...now I've really got to run!...

:hi:

[MARALE]

48. EBay shares down despite profit rise

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B27C88FCD%2D30A7%2D4689%2D8079%2DCBDBE0BE931E%7D&siteid=mktw

...
EBay said late Wednesday that profit rose 28% on sales that topped $1 billion for the first time.

Given that the first quarter is typically one of eBay's strongest, some investors had hoped the firm would deliver a more impressive report card.

While eBay's international and electronic payment business is growing at a healthy clip, its key U.S. market isn't expaning as quickly as investors would like. The firm saw a slow start to its listing business at the start of the year, and was forced to increased customer support and promotional discounts to maintain its customers.

A growing number of consumers and businesses are using paid-search ad listings to sell on the Web. That's driving up the cost of advertising for eBay -- the biggest buyer of such ads - and suggests that Google and Yahoo may be eating into eBay's growth rate.
...

[4dsc]

49. The End of the Days of Denial

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/rostenko/2005/0420.html

Ford and GM bonds on the verge of “junk” status. Consumer price inflation “surprisingly” high. And just when you thought our trade deficit didn’t really look like that of some South American banana republic, it hits another record high.

Yes folks, as the smiling gentlemen in D.C. will rush to assure you, these are the makings of a healthy expansion, and solid, albeit “measured” economic growth. Everything remains on track as rampant speculation in real estate by the gluttons for punishment who didn’t quite lose enough in the collapse of the stock market bubble (but will soon have what’s left of their heads handed to them on a platter) make quite clear.


A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a
jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."

[MARALE]

51. DOW INDUSTRIALS UP 120% AT 10,132 AFTER PHILLY FED

WOW, 120%!!! I should have bought yesterday! SNARF!


:eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

U.S. April Philly Fed shows factory expansion By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Growth accelerated in the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region in April, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday. The Philly Fed index rose to 25.3 in April from 11.4 in March. Readings over zero indicate expansion in the sector. The index has been positive for 23 straight months. Economists were expecting a slight increase to 11.9. New orders rose to 20.3 from 13.2, while shipments rose to 29.4 from 14.7. Prices paid and prices received both accelerated.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38463.5034096296-834423122&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

[spotbird]

63. Do we believe this report?

It doesn't seem possible that manufacturing is up as well as inventories. Why are they making stuff they can't sell?

[RawMaterials]

52. 12:15 EST Market Update and Blather

Dow 10140.42 +128.06 (+1.28%)
Nasdaq 1945.93 +32.17 (+1.68%)
S&P 500 1151.22 +13.72 (+1.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.239% +0.28

NYSE Volume 1,032,000,000
Nasdaq Volume 927,706,000




12:00PM : Market maintains broad-based gains midday, erasing yesterday's losses amid strong quarterly earnings, encouraging economic data and M&A news... Today, 28 of 42 S&P companies out with results have topped analysts' forecasts, further easing concerns of waning profit growth... In addition to better than expected Q1 reports from Nokia (NOK 16.24 +0.90), Motorola (MOT 15.74 +0.81) and eBay (EBAY 32.49 -0.62) last night, strong reports from blue chips like MRK, MCD, T, UPS, UNP and WHR have also provided a floor of support for stocks...

Arguably oversold market conditions following yesterday's drubbing have also created bargain hunting opportunities while recent indications of economic softness have been mitigated by the largest one-week decline in jobless claims since Dec. 2001... Initial claims fell 36K to a 10-week low of 296K (consensus 329K) during a key week in which the April employment survey was conducted...

A $17.6 bln cash and stock deal for bankrupt Adelphia, a $14.2 bln buyout of Allied Domecq (AED 50.93 +0.81) and the $3.5 bln merger between the NYSE and Archipelago (AX 27.15 +8.39) have also contributed to an improved sentiment that has kept 9 of 10 economic sectors in positive territory... Pacing the way to the upside has been Technology (+1.8%), as renewed buying interest across the board has all but erased yesterday's sell-off on the Nasdaq... Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples have also posted gains in excess of 1.0% while Energy (+1.2%) has surged even though crude oil prices ($53.20/bbl -$0.83) have remained weak all morning after OPEC said it will increase oil production capacity this year... Health Care (+0.7%) has also shown relative strength amid strong Q1 earnings from the likes of ABC, GDT, ROH and BAX...

Financial (-0.3%), however, remains weak as yields on the 10-year note (-13/32) have stabilized near session highs (4.23%)... Meanwhile, Fed Chief Greenspan has been testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on deficits and budget reform, but his comments have had little impact on the bond market... Separately, Mar. leading indicators fell 0.4% - its seventh decline over the last 10 months - but as a lagging indicator providing a very false read on the strong economic momentum, the data have had little impact on market activity... DJTA +2.5, DJUA +1.2, DOT +2.1, Nasdaq 100 +1.8, Russell 2000 +0.8, SOX +2.3, S&P Midcap 400 +1.1, XOI +0.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1946/1072, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1780/1050

[naderzenithnow]

53. Wow. All production in New York must have been shifted to Philadelphia.

Seriously though, inflation looks to be heating up but maybe talk of “soft patch" was overwrought?

[ozymandius]

54. 12:35 numbers and blather -Bonds say 'ouch'

Dow
10,136.71
+124.35
(+1.24%)

Nasdaq
1,946.39
+32.63
(+1.71%)

S&P 500
1,151.11
+13.61
(+1.20%)

10-Yr Bond
4.284
+0.73
(+1.73%)

NYSE Volume
1,120,298,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,015,508,00

12:30PM: Stocks spike to session highs following a stronger than expected read on regional manufacturing... At the top of the hour, the Philadelphia Fed's index jumped to 25.3 (consensus 10.0) - the highest level since December - which will bode well for the upcoming April ISM national index (May 2)... The upside surprise has countered the recent plunge in the April NY manufacturing index - which suggested a slowdown in manufacturing expansion - and raised suspicions about whether economic growth has actually slowed as much as the market has recently thought... NYSE Adv/De

[ozymandius]

55. Buffett invests in Anheuser-Busch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Berkshire Hathaway has become a "significant" shareholder of Anheuser-Busch Cos., according to the brewer.

Shares of Anheuser-Busch (BUD: news, chart, profile) jumped $2.97, or 6.6%, to $48.07 after the maker of Budweiser and other beer brands said Thursday that it had recently learned of Berkshire's move.

-cut-

In his 2004 letter to shareholders, Buffett had said he'd "found very few attractive securities to buy" and was unable to make any big acquisitions. He ended the year with $43 billion cash and cash equivalents.

Anheuser-Busch may be an exception. Shares of the St. Louis-based company have dropped almost 12% in the past year, while the S&P 500 has gained a little less than 2%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B77F45C96%2DD908%2D4656%2DA1C2%2DEB3DE318540E%7D

[Tace]

59. Sounds Like A Good Move

I've heard that beer companies do well during economic downturns while everyone is drowning their sorrows.

[ozymandius]

57. Was there any bad news yesterday?

Never would've guessed... 1:24

Dow
10,144.48
+132.12
(+1.32%)

Nasdaq
1,946.54
+32.78
(+1.71%)

S&P 500
1,151.90
+14.40
(+1.27%)

10-Yr Bond
42.77
+0.66
(+1.57%)

NYSE Volume
1,296,698,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,164,300,000

[spotbird]

58. Happy days are here again.

Glad that little mess is cleared up.

[MARALE]

65. There are going to be some hangovers tomorrow

What is it called when you wake up the next day in bed with a gross partner? I can't remember.

:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

[MsTryska]

60. well yay for the NYSE going public....

that certainly put everyone in a mood to buy.


Wonder how long this will last? It's like watching Crackheads score their junk.

[RawMaterials]

61. 2:07 Marker Update and Blather

Dow 10160.66 +148.30 (+1.48%)
Nasdaq 1952.76 +39.00 (+2.04%)
S&P 500 1154.09 +16.59 (+1.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.299% +0.88

NYSE Volume 1,480,091,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,308,547,000



2:00PM: Onward and upward remains the mantra of the day, as even oil prices have found renewed buying interest... While crude oil futures ($53.45/bbl -$0.58) have recently spiked to session highs, the commodity still remains under pressure after an OPEC official said it will increase oil production capacity this year and through 2010, the commodity... NYSE Adv/Dec 2298/891, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2060/907

1:30PM: Indices continue to trade near session highs, as buying remains widespread across most areas... Treasurys, however, have touched fresh session lows in the wake of a broad-based stock rally, as the 10-year note is now off 29 ticks yielding 4.30%... Bonds have been weak all day, first losing ground after initial claims plunged to a 10-week low and then extending losses following the unexpected jump in Philly Fed... But so far, rising bond yields have been no match for the widespread bargain hunting opportunites being seized by stock market participants...NYSE Adv/Dec 2214/957, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2001/927

1:00PM: More of the same, as the major averages continue to drift sideways... Financial, however, has reversed course and inched into the green within the hour... One bright spot has been Ambac Financial Group (ABK 66.49 +4.29), rebounding after getting hammered yesterday (-16%) when it slashed FY05 EPS growth targets to 4-8% from 12-14%... Rising bond yields and disappointments from the likes of KRB and SLM, however, have kept gains at a minimum...

MBNA (KRB 19.40 -3.71), which posted a 94% drop in Q1 profits and warned that FY05 EPS will be "significantly below" its 10% growth target has been the largest laggard, erasing overnight gains on shares of rival Capital One (COF 70.31 -1.93), which beat Street estimates last night by $0.07... Also weighing on the sector has been Sallie Mae (SLM 47.57 -1.59), which missed expectations by $0.02 amid a 23% decline in Q1 profits... NYSE Adv/Dec 2205/923, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1978/925

[MARALE]

62. They are really happy, but

I don't think it will last long. The jobs report has not made up for the last couple of bad ones and it was not adjusted. the leading indicators went down by .4. I know around here, when businesses see a down time coming in the future, they will push production so they can build inventory, then lay-off for a while. A lot of factories do this in the summer, many factory workers like to take a month off and earn unemployment and work a construction cash only job on the side.
I don't buy the surge, my opinion is it won't last a long time.

JMO

[spotbird]

64. I commented above that it seems impossible

to reconcile yesterday's inventory report with today's manufacturing report. You may have the answer.

[ozymandius]

70. The markets are too schizophrenic to make long-term sense.

Profits will be had. Especially when there's this much money flooding securities.

[MARALE]

66. Treasurys hit by strong Philly Fed

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2F9A9C27%2DECCF%2D4B74%2D8A34%2DAA96C68DCB18%7D&siteid=mktw

...
In late trade the 10-year bond was down 26/32 at 97-21/32 with a 4.29% yield vs. 4.21% late Wednesday.

Treasury prices began falling in early trading on news of the sharpest drop in initial jobless claims in more than three years. Losses were extended in midmorning as Greenspan began speaking before the Senate Banking Committee.

In recent days, the bond market has been locked in debate about the pace of economic growth, with many concluding that the U.S. has entered a soft phase.

But Thursday's developments raised questions about accounts of a so-called "soft patch," sending prices lower and disappointing fixed-income investors who had hoped that further evidence of economic weakness would help keep interest rates low.
...

[MARALE]

67. Wheeeeee!!!!!!

Stocks soar higher

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCA53B869%2DD4AB%2D4940%2DB62B%2D75D5ADFBD97E%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
...
"The markets are getting a well-deserved relief rally. The question, looking ahead, is what kind of staying power today's advance will have?" said Michael Sheldon chief market strategist at Spencer Clark LLC.

Heading into the final hour of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was last up 179 points, or 1.8%, at 10,191. If the blue chip gauge can hold those gains it would be its biggest one-day point move higher since October 1, 2003.
...

I wonder what happened before and/or after that date? Seems to be a lot of 2003 records we are beating lately.
I will Google and tell if I find anything...

[RawMaterials]

68. 3:40 Market Update and Blather -- everyones happy

Dow 10208.48 +196.12 (+1.96%)
Nasdaq 1960.80 +47.04 (+2.46%)
S&P 500 1159.07 +21.57 (+1.90%)
10-Yr Bond 4.300% +0.89

NYSE Volume 2,002,864,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,752,025,000



3:30PM: Market showing no signs of slowing going into the close, as the market holds steady at sharply higher levels... Leading the charge has been the Dow Transports (+3.3%), lifted initially by stronger than expected earnings from United Parcel Service (UPS 70.61 +3.35) and Union Pacific (UNP 64.92 +1.59)... But a broad rally has lit a fire under every component and awarded investors opportunities to pick up bargains...

For instance, even though Northwest Airlines (NWAC 5.94 +0.54) lost $5.07 per share, missing analysts' Q1 estimates by $0.64, and had its secured debt rating downgraded at S&P, possible pension reform and a stock price near 52-week lows have been enough to lift the stock 11.0%... NYSE Adv/Dec 2334/938, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2137/890

3:00PM: Stocks move little over the past 30 minutes, but a bullish bias remains firmly intact... Advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a more than 2 to1 advantage over decliners, while the ratio of up to down volumes hold an even more positive 4 to 1 edge at both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the major indices continue to trade well above initial support levels, while the S&P and Nasdaq have recently pushed through resistance levels of 1155 and 1955, respectively, and the Dow has surged more than 175 points for the first time since Nov. 4, 2004...NYSE Adv/Dec 2393/862, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2111/883

[ozymandius]

69. and five before close all is well, except for bond traders

Dow
10,202.27
+189.91
(+1.90%)

Nasdaq
1,958.09
+44.33
(+2.32%)

S&P 500
1,158.30
+20.80
(+1.83%)

10-Yr Bond
4.300
+0.89
(+2.11%)

NYSE Volume
2,137,345,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,861,707,000

[ozymandius]

71. advances and declines stats

Advances
NYSE
2383
(69%)

Nasdaq
2189
(68%)

Declines
NYSE
884
(25%)

Nasdaq
860
(27%)

Unchanged
NYSE
154
(4%)

Nasdaq
130
(4%)

[daleo]

72. Um...the word volatile comes to mind.

So what's on for tomorrow? This roller-coaster looks dangerous.

[Zynx]

73. We were VERY oversold going into today.

We were due for a substantial bounce.

[daleo]

77. It certainly was substantial. n/t

[Tace]

74. Dow Likely Will Test That Support/Resistance Line At Around

10,350. I would guess.

[daleo]

76. It seems to be yoyoing between 10K and 10.5K forever.

I keep thinking the pattern will eventually break. I suppose it will, one way or another, eventually.

[customerserviceguy]

80. It's just a pump

Every time it goes up, that's working class and middle class money going in to the system and out into rich people's pockets, when it goes down, that's working class and middle class money going out, and the rich buying their way back in. If we get Social Security in on the deal, it can be poor folks' money getting pumped, too!

[daleo]

83. A sort of conveyor belt for sharks and their suckers, then. n/t

[naderzenithnow]

84. Ding! Ding, Ding, Ding!!!!

I bought some today. Toe in the water.

[AnneD]

87. I get paid 2x a month

and have payroll deduction for 403b, the money came out Tuesday and will hit the market either today or tomorrow. I have noticed it alway bumps up on the pay day week. The market looks like a classic pump and dump anymore.
I think I will stop taking the deduction out of my check for the rest of the year. I will use the money to pay off debts for the rest of the year. I have decided that for now, cash is a position that I want to hold. I think the investment waters will be choppy with a downward direction...Why, the consumers are starting to take a beating and it will continue (unemployement, oil, inflation)

[MsTryska]

81. well .....

look at it this way:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=my


how long did it take for the Dow to even reach 10,000?

[daleo]

82. I guess it is just the Bush years that make it seem like forever.

It is an interesting chart, that's for sure. It is hard to be sure from the logarithmic scale, but it looks like the market went up about 250% during the Clinton years, and hasn't actually budged during the Bush era (chimp version). There was also a good long stagnant spell from 65 to 82, so we may only be half way through the Bush doldrums. I guess Bush can blame Clinton for "hogging all the stock market growth".

[RawMaterials]

86. But if you invested during 65-82 and got lucky

with your picks, then you would have been very very rich during the Clinton years.

[MsTryska]

89. he sure does make it seem like forever! *lol*

and yeah we've been spoiled by the Clinton years.

I'm not sure what it was that made stocks soar, other than the advent of dotbombs and the internet. mixed with a good economy in gerneral of course.

[54anickel]

85. Heh, look at the futures chart - pretty early to tell for tomorrow, but

they tend to just stay sort of level after the close. Who knows? :shrug:

[ozymandius]

75. closing numbers, blather posted

Dow
10,218.60
+206.24
(+2.06%)

Nasdaq
1,962.41
+48.65
(+2.54%)

S&P 500
1,159.95
+22.45
(+1.97%)

10-Yr Bond
4.300
+0.89
(+2.11%)

NYSE Volume
2,266,613,000

Nasdaq Volume
1,951,209,000

Close: Robust earnings, optimistic economic data and promising M&A deals charged up the bulls, as huge gains across the board erased Wednesday's weakness and lifted each of the major indices at least 2.0%... Better than expected Q1 earnings from the majority S&P companies out with results today (28 of 42) was the driving force behind today's broad-based rally...

In addition to upbeat Q1 reports from Nokia (NOK 16.38 +1.04), Motorola (MOT 15.90 +0.97) and eBay (EBAY 32.96 -0.15) last night, strong reports from a multitude of blue chips this morning - from Merck (MRK 34.34 +0.27) to Marriott (MAR 63.35 +1.15) - further alleviated concerns that profit growth is not slowing... The notion that the market may be oversold, as the major averages have averaged an 8.4% loss so far in 2005, also created bargain hunting opportunities as the Dow bounced off the psychological 10,000 level and soared more than 175 points for the first time since Nov. 4, 2004... Uplifting economic data also helped underpin a bullish bias and diminish recent indications of economic softness...

Initial claims fell 36K to 296K (consensus 329K) - the largest decline in more than three years - during a key week in which the April employment survey was conducted... A stronger than expected jump in the April Philadelphia Fed's index, to 25.3 (consensus 10.0) - the highest level since December - countered the recent plunge in the April NY manufacturing index and also raised doubts about whether economic growth has actually slowed as much as the market has recently thought...

[54anickel]

78. Zowie wow-wow! Everyone made some money today. Bit bloody

over on the Treasury floor though. Hope someone brings a bucket and mop.

[ozymandius]

79. Hair and eyeballs on the bond floor.

I wonder what light crude will do tomorrow now that Rumsfeld has visited to Caspian basin nations for establishing "regional security" bases near Iran.

[ausiedownunderground]

88. Congratulations America, it was just a "fake" fall to suck you all in.

But probably not! It does appear that the American economy, with the help of our accountant friends and of course the American Bureau of Statistics is actually going "gangbusters" and you don't know it! only the "insiders" know it! You should all stop spending and start investing your money, so you can ride America's Rethuglican inspired economic resurgance!

But before you do! Nobody outside America is buying American made things! Of course the exception is "Weapons"! America is very good at that!
Your trade deficit will get worse! You don't sell anything worth buying, outside "Weapons"! Although this is slowely becoming the manufactured good of choice!
There are so many American dollars everywhere its like "conffetti". Print away Greenscam!!! Eventually "having to buy" oil in US dollars will be stopped! That will bring Washington's presses to a halt!
Like all Anglo-Saxon western democracies we are told that our inflation is within our federal reserve banks limits and our employment is "booming" if you want to "flip" burgers or serve some european or chinese tourist! Chinese tourists to OZ is "booming"!! Although we already have 105,000 chinese students filling our universities! They make up more than half our students learning ! Not a problem, they pay to do so. But more and more of them are going home. In the older days they stayed and became OZZIES. It is these ones that are warning us that the "new" chinese students are here to "steal" our "intellectual Property"! China wants Western "intellectual property"!!! It wants it to make a giant "leap forward"!! In OZ, we are quite happy to help them. They buy our resources and pay for our Education. We buy their manufactured goods in return! Several years ago we had a trade surplus with China!! Now we have a "growing" trade deficit with China! OZ investment money is no longer being spent in OZ. Its mainly being spent in China! Even our education facilities are being moved to China! China is slowly using its wealth advantage over us to buy OZ resource companies and OZ education facilities! Like all western Anglo-Saxon socities, we are slowly becoming a Chinese possesion! Now, i'm not saying that is bad!! We in OZ seem to be quite happy to move our society to the Chinese influence away from US and UK influence. The Chinese love "Soccer" and they love our "home grown" sports of OZ rules football and Rugby. But OZ is slowly becoming a "China-dependant" country! Real US & UK influence is receding amongst our latest generations. The "Die-hards" older generation's (i.e. Babyboomers) will tell you differently. But on the "ground", China is becoming the major influential power in OZ.