Global shortage of oil after 2007

[4dsc]

http://www.energybulletin.net/5374.html

Will we miss the boat having AWOLbush as our pResident??

THE world faces a global oil supply shortage after 2007, which would threaten economic growth, according to new research by the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (Odac) which says that not enough major new fields will come on stream to offset declines .

“Our latest research confirms solidly our view that we cannot see any reasonable circumstances under which new supplies from expected mega oil projects could possibly meet world demand by 2008,” said a spokesman for London-based Odac.

Chris Skrebowski, a board member of Odac, has analysed all planned oil field projects worldwide with reserves of more than 500 million barrels and concluded that, on current timetables, output from new fields will be insufficient to offset more major oil producers moving into net production decline.

Shell, which last year faced a corporate crisis after overstating its oil reserves, recently said its reserve replacement ratio had shrunk to 19%, the lowest of any oil major. This means Shell is finding less than one-fifth of what it produces.

[rodeodance]

1. the bushco 'dig and drill' mentality is off base!!--nothing there folks!

[acmejack]

2. Some believe we are at peak oil already

We are so fossil fuel based, it is going to be very strange soon.

[4dsc]

4. Life After the Oil Crash

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global “Peak Oil.”

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html

[Donailin]

17. I'm frightened

literally. everything this administration has done makes sense in light of this revelation.

I don't know where to begin to plan. Who relaistically has resources to save them from what we are in for?

[havocmom]

20. Learn to garden, even if it is just in containers

Learn to grow and can as much of your own food as you can. Talk to neighbors about community gardens. TEACH THE KIDS to garden. It's better than video games and will help toward the need to empower them.

We are a sorry civilization when so few of us can really supply any of our own needs.

Learn to repair things. Learn to sew, can, and recycle like your life depends on it. What you teach the kids could make a world of difference. Don't need to spook them, but work with them to learn skills instead of letting the TV or video games raise them.

And garden, garden, garden. Learn to make the best of your local growing conditions. Most places have county Ag extensions. Get to know yours! Many have classes. Improve your soil. Food is gonna get pricey when it comes from down the road from you. Defray as much of that cost as you can and build lasting relationships with your kids and the kids down the street by gardening for fun and nutrition. You just might pass along a legacy which will live a long time.

Learn to really understand what you NEED as opposed to what would just be nice to have. Get as independent as you possibly can. The corporations want everyone helpless and dependent. Fuck em and learn to do for yourself as much as you possibly can.

Stop believing in marketing. We really don't need much and we had better get used to having a lot less than we have used in the past.
Do not get kids things which don't teach them anything but how to be a consumer. Stop the corporate brainwashing!

Did I mention gardening? ;)

[Gregorian]

28. It's pretty hard to live off a garden.

The only way to live a half decent life is through a community. I can't live off of kale and chard. What about flour? Or pork, if you so desire. We can't do it alone. And this is where we screwed ourselves. I have to go off on a tangent here- I just remembered the Fedex guy who came by a week ago. He said that the place I bought used to be a real farm. And as a kid, he and his dad would come to get chickens and pork. But now we rely on Safeway, which relies on fuel to move stuff around from store to store. When gas is too expensive, we are left without our infrastructure. It could take decades to regroup. Not only that, but we have forgotten how. I have everything it takes to do it, except the knowledge. Hell, I can't even get a garden going. Furthermore, one fuckup and your little garden is gone. Or any screwup and you find yourself starving. I honestly don't see any way out of this mess. If the population were half what it is, I could see answers.
I'm going to look at my tomato seedlings. Time to out to the greenhouse for a while. This is way too heavy. I'm sure we're overreacting. Nothing changes very quickly. But maybe we can learn from this. Slow down, or suffer. That's my new motto.

[theHandpuppet]

42. Learn or starve

You don't have to live off just kale and chard. Beans are easy to grow and are one of the best foods for drying and storage. If you have a small plot, try planting some dwarf fruit and nut trees and plant a grape arbor. Parsnips, carrots, and brussels sprouts (and some late broccoli) can be grown through the winter. Seeds and produce can be traded for other goods. Even potatoes can be grown in containers.

If you just throw your hands up and say you can't do something and you're going to rely on others you're defeated before you've even tried. Teach yourself how to garden and how to preserve foods. Learn to grow foods in cold frames. Anything you need to know is easily available on the internet. If you take the first steps now you can work through your mistakes. You might not get everything you need from your home garden, but it just might make all the difference in the world. But first of all you need to shed the defeatist attitude.

[Gregorian]

58. Thanks!

I needed that. I have a huge garden. I mean, it's amazing. And a greenhouse. I just moved in. But before I was here, I had a friend who was an old gardener. He lived off his garden. I'd go over there and watch. And watch. I'm dumb. I just don't get stuff. But once someone shows me, and I learn, I'm off and running like a pro. Sometimes it just takes a statement like yours. I've grown "other" things, and was prolific. So I know I can grow vegetables.
But here's part of the problem- today we've been getting big hail. I don't even want to go look at my apple orchard. This winter was like spring. And I'm guessing every blossom is gone.
BUT, your're right. Life will always have it's ups and downs. I am ready to start my garden. I have a lot of studying to do. I don't even know what to plant, when. Hm, time to go look at the gardening forums.

[theHandpuppet]

59. You just have to decide that you MUST do this

And with a positive attitude, once you've begun you'll get addicted!

As for fruit and the possible loss of your apples, always have a backup plan. Containers can be easily protected from freak storms and there are several kinds of dwarf blueberries which are ideal for container gardening. Most fruits can be dried for long storage.

Yes, you have a lot to learn but your are SO LUCKY to have the space and resources that you do. Don't waste them -- you have been fortunate. Certainly, you need to start hanging out at the Gardening Forum where folks can tutor you. Learning how to garden successfully doesn't happen overnight. But there was a time where most families had a backyard garden. As a society we've become addicted to convenience. Those days may not last much longer. A little self-sufficiency goes a long way towards erasing dread and fear. If, as you say, it takes a community to survive, then we all must consider how we plan to contribute to it as individuals. A "community" is not just some amorphous entity that exists outside the individual or to serve a collection of individuals.

Also, I'd highly recommend that you consider subscribing to Mother Earth News. I think you'll find it immensely helpful.

Good luck!! :)

[leftofthedial]

65. don't worry

the population will be less than half of what it is

getting there won't be fun.

[Delphinus]

68. Why?

What makes you say this?

[leftofthedial]

77. I think most humans will not survive the coming meltdown

massive economic dislocation

breakdows of civil authority

disruptions in the food supply

global pandemics

Other than that, though, things will be peachy

[Toots]

108. During the Depression America survived because of small farms

People had no money but food was available. They didn't starve. In today's world with Mega-Farms which depend on federal subsidies there will be no available food for the masses. There will be riots and death and the GOP will delight in the turmoil because they know after it all shakes out they will be in position to buy things up cheaply. It is all in the plan just like placing Crack Cocaine into the inner cities. That had multiple effect. First out of the hopper it raised large sums for buying weapons for the Contras. Next it had the effect of marginalizing the Black population. soon they became know as junkies and users and the cry of Crack Babies was heard across the nation. Up to twenty-five percent of male blacks were incarcerated for drug sales or usage. Guess what? Blacks no longer able to vote if convicted of feleny. The only real opportunity for young blacks to get anywhere was by selling drugs. I am sure those high up republicans who thought of this scam are still thrilled at how well it worked out for them. Bolton and Negropante are two of theose people. Ollie North is another. They imported Cocaine into America to raise illegitimate cash for their Contra cause and at the same time stuck a fork into the entire Black community and the Democratic Party which is made up in large part by minorities. This new money/oi;l scam is the same type of thing. Very long range planning for the wealthy Republicans to become unimmaginably more wealthy while burying their political opponents,The common Man There will be no way out unless America is torn apart at the seams.

[katty]

118. Use planter boxes or small garden areas

[Donailin]

39. I know I know

I'm going to start with tomatoes, then basil, then garlic, then olives. If all fails I'm going to hitch a ride to florence. <g>

[MARALE]

129. I don't grow olives

But I do grow the rest. There is nothing like fresh basil and garlic! They are very easy to grow. So are potatoes! we grow a lot of those.

[Boomer]

45. Make the most of what you have

If I were ten or twenty years younger, I'd be looking for a small farm to buy. But in lieu of that, my partner and I are making the most of our small backyard, turning as much of it as possible into working land.

We have a half-dozen raised beds, a lot of containers, three dwarf fruit trees and some grape vines. We're concentrating on learning, trying different techniques for growing, rather than worrying about the actual yield. That will come later.

This is part of a long-range plan to deal with the coming "troubles" that we expect during our lifetime. We will never be fully self-sufficient, but we'll be able to buffer ourselves from the worst of the price increases and shortages.

And we're also preparing ourselves emotionally for a future that may consist of subsistence living and few luxuries. We take nothing for granted, are grateful for what we have now, and remind ourselves that for much of human history individuals have lived on far less.

[Lindacooks]

81. Learn how to can, too.

It's possible, if necessary, to can over an open fire (if things get that bad). But you have to learn how to can safely. Find out how from your local or regional Ag Extension office. Canned food doesn't need power to keep it wholesome, unlike frozen foods.

[Pachamama]

97. Free-Range Chickens...eggs from them...great sources of protein..

and they are fairly low maintenance...they love eating vegetable and fruit scraps from the garden...

And occassionally roast chicken is good too, but I confess I'd get attached to the birds if I had them at home....

Your advice Havoc Mom is very very important....My husbands parents are retired professors of Biology...They are teaching us about gardening...I know in my heart that as they teach us and our children that this is very important to our survival down the road.

We are fortunate...we live in CA that has a very mild winter and can grow many things for longer season...assuming ofcourse that climate change does not happen sooner than that...

[havocmom]

107. Mmmm, real eggs are so tasty!

Amazes me how many people have never enjoyed them. The nice thing about free ranging fowl around the garden is they are a very safe way to keep harmful bugs under control.

Compost the poop and you help things grow.

People need to wake up to the fact that they can do stuff on their own.

Little story: When I was a young, new bride, I asked the young groom if he would like pancakes for breakfast one fine day. He said he would love some and set about opening and closing cabinets, finally looking very disappointed. He said, "Oh, we can't have pancakes, we don't have any MIX!"

So havocmom got out the ingredients and made pancakes. The young groom was astounded, literally standing with his mouth agape, as she lifted the fresh cakes off the griddle. How did she do that he asks.

'I made them from flour, baking powder, milk and eggs, you know...' says the bride.

"But you didn't have MIX!" he repeats, still thinking the bride to be a sorceress of some sort to have made pancakes appear on his plate.

"So how did you think the pioneers, going across the country in covered wagons, made pancakes?" the bride asked.

The young groom replied, with all seriousness and sincerity, "I thought they brought MIX!!!"

Havocmom has a different and much brighter groom now ;) But she is sad to know there are too many people out there who can't do anything without the MIX. They have not been well served by their society if they are so totally dependent on what Betty Crocker and General Mills have to sell them that they will go hungry before learning how to feed themselves even partially.

[katty]

117. Yes, gardening,making clothes(byhand)and communal

living skills. the hippies weren't off the mark by creating communal environments-at least they tried-after the crash many have speculated/written about the need to create urban communal living centers (no, not like your local ghetto or da hood)with rules, regs, participation, sharing and cooperation-not everyone can be in a rural area.

[Gregorian]

23. Just remember this, and you won't be scared

(By the way, you're scaring me too. Sort of. I'll tell you why, in a bit.)
We survived without oil. The only thing it has done for us is give us comfort. LOTS and lots of comfort. Travel, gadgets, power.
But now we are in a bad place. And that's scary. We are on the top of a precipice, balanced. Without power, we will tumble. So that's scary. What is scary is how I've felt about it for thirty years. I rode my bike to work. I declined to travel with my friends. All for nothing. Now that is a lot of concern. I've lived a life of concern. Just look at my sig. I'm now concerned for those who didn't care. Talk about your sig line, I have lived every day thinking about that. All of these people who didn't care, were my enemies. Now it's their turn. Maybe. There's still lots of energy. We always need a crisis to get off our butts. Now we'll see smart people in action. We might even see friendship where it didn't exist. It's pretty hard to wage world wars without oil. I see good coming from this. I'll spare my thoughts on the bad stuff. We know what that will be.
But what really scares me is that I accidentally found my most recent home. And it's totally self sufficient. I've been marveling at it. Creeks, garden, house. I have three water supplies. I told my dad that if the world came to an end I could survive here. I'm affraid there's a reason.
The only thing we should be affraid of is the population. I've been ranting for thirty years about it. Noone wanted to hear it. IT is the problem. Not the oil. I've been saying over and over that if we kept on reproducing, nature would be most unfriendly. I hate the thought of suffering, but we asked for it. Blindly.


Crap! I just reread this, and it's all scary. I'm sorry.

[Donailin]

32. Only twenty minutes ago

as I was lamenting much of what is being discussed here, but also about what the new pope ought to be like; I blurted out, "the ultimate problem is there are too many people". Birth control. The Church could have its cake (the west) and eat it too (south America and Africa)if it would just, at the very least, relax it's teachings on birth control. I don't bring this up because I believe that all of this is God's plan or anything of the sort, but rather this is man's mistake which is a result of mans greed for power and control of each other.

Back to Oil. Here is a discussion I'm having with a few friends in another forum, one of which is a Senior Science Editor for TIME:

I said, "Are you of the opinion that we haven't reached peak oil?"

the replies are thus:

"If Gold's theory is correct, and I think it just might be, then we may never reach 'peak oil'. However, we may well have reached the halfway point of cheap, easily accessible oil (not that the current price is particularly cheap, but it isn't a crippling cost. Yet.)"

And:

"Right. Gold was a fascinating guy. He went seriously agains the mainstream in all sorts of areas, and it's pretty generally agreed that he was dead wrong about the steady-state universe. Geologists have advanced some pretty good arguments against his oil theories, too, but hardly good enough to disprove them. And for what it's worth, mainstream scientists have MUCH more respect for Gold, even when they disagree with him, than they do for other maverics."

So what you say:

"There's still lots of energy. We always need a crisis to get off our butts. Now we'll see smart people in action. We might even see friendship where it didn't exist."

this gives me some ease of panic. The thing is, I'm in no position to pack up and buy some farm or even property in the near future UNLESS I do what I despise -- become a greedy self serving capitalist and exploit the very people that I normally fight for, including myself. I don't want to gain the world and lose my soul in the process.

[Gregorian]

41. We took it upon ourselves.

I believe we had it made. But we blew it. That's my biblical interpretation in two sentences.
And what a dilemma, that everything is energy. Let there be light. That's all it is.
And then there is "Be fruitful and multiply". And if every being is in the image of God, then there can never be too many.
I think of all these things. I am a strong believer. I don't think the bible is fiction. And I don't believe Jesus was a philosopher.
To me, the only thing that gives me relief from fear is the knowledge that there is a greater being.
It does say that we will survive by the sweat of our brows. I gave my father a book titled "Entropy", for Christmas one year. In that book, it describes the history of energy, and the degree of difficulty by which it is obtained. We are nearing the next stage. But having said that, I hear about natural gas reserves that could last us tens of thousands of years. So who knows if we really are nearing that next stage.
My bottom line is that we should have, and still should, take responsibility to live frugal lives that will enable the whole of human kind to live in a modicum of comfort. The sin is to hoard energy at the expense of those who can't defend themselves. Greed comes from fear combined with selfishness. Hey, I just made that last one up. And I also believe that difficulty serves to bring people together. If peak oil is what it takes, then bring it on. (Ugh. Sorry about that.)

[Donailin]

48. Gregorian

I enjoy your posts. They have a random and abstract quality. My whole life, if not my industry, is centered on entropy and the second law of thermodynamics. Everything ordered will become disordered. I see it everywhere and wonder if my energy is not better spent on things intangible, like treausre in heaven. My conflict is very much wrapped up in Gospel teachings, and Christ is without doubt, my moral compass. Can we add a single day to our lif by worrying what we are to wear and what we are to eat? And how does one do that while being the good steward of God's blessings? And how do I discern the difference?
About sweat, I know it too well. Few could walk in my shoes, I don't know of any who would want to. I don't mind work, I don't mind suffering if I could just know that my kids won't have it as hard as I do. That is my main concern. All along, I'm raising my kids to be wise beyond their years and to make a difference for their generation. They know the difference between needs and wants, and it is my hope that whatever their lot in life, it involves a labor of love and not a last resort. OTOH, they are artists (accomplished musicians) and I know from the history of man that there will always be a demand for entertainment. But still.

[Gregorian]

90. I'm not on autopilot.

Thank you so much for your comments. I admit that I'm a bit frightened to post. But I've learned to say what I feel. I tried to think of a way to respond to your post. And finally, my title is what I had to say. I chose my life. I didn't tolerate much molding. I went to college at 30, and graduated as a mechanical engineer. It was hell. I worked for four years, and split. I left everything behind and haven't looked back yet. Unfortunately I left more than I wanted. I was a musician, and dropped that. To this day, my father says what you say to your kids. As pathetic as it may seem, people want to be entertained. He only says that because I complain about not having the ten million dollars I need for the property I dream about. I better get back to my pizza. I'm half way through another pizza production. I've given up drinking for baking. My new life is pizza, sour dough, pies.... Mmmm. But to sum up why I post the things I do, I am an observer. I am not full of intellectual facts. I'm unread. I forget what I've learned. But I watch. Well, this post isn't what I wanted. From peak oil, to a self-diagnosis. I'm just glad DU is here so we can all perform our little dances.

[Terry in Austin]

130. Abiotic oil

It's very sad to hear that the science editor of a national news magazine is giving any credence to Gold's speculations. Wow. I'm sorry, but there is so much wrong with this, it's hard to know where to begin.

Gold's status as borderline crackpot is widely enough established, as five minutes on Google will attest. His appeal is somewhere between wishful thinking and perpetual motion machine (next week: wanna buy a slightly-used bridge?).

If this editor you mention could lay any serious claim to being scientific, he would know how it works: the job is to prove your theory, not to disprove somebody else's. The burden of proof is on those making the assertion -- in this case, Gold. And he's come up way short. For the editor to frame it as he has is not just unscientific, it's actually pretty irresponsible. I'm sorry he wasted your time and raised false hopes.

He's right about one thing, though -- smart people will come in and help us get off our butts in this time of crisis. But if he's implying the outcome will be some continuation of energy-gluttony-as-usual, he's being disingenuous at best.

What the smart people will be figuring out is how to restructure things to run on a scale of energy-use that can be sustained by renewables, a scale that is necessarily a lot smaller than what we've gotten used to.

[NickB79]

135. At this point, it really doesn't matter if oil is biotic or abiotic

People who don't give any credence to Peak Oil cling to the abiotic oil hypothesis, claiming we will never run out of oil because it is always being produced deep in the Earth's crust. Fine, let's say for a second I believe that. The next question is, how fast is that deep-Earth oil bubbling up to replenish oil reserves we're extracting from? The answer: pretty damn slow, because we haven't been able to measure any appreciable refill from almost any of our oilfields around the world. Even if abiotic oil is true, it doesn't do us any good because it will take millions of years for it to refill the oil reserves we've sucked dry.

[barb162]

57. I've been ranting on overpopulation for decades too.

Right now, I think if people were smart they wouldn't have kids because they'll be bringing them up in a world where there is going to be a one hell of a lot of pain. We're at at 6 billion and still counting, the breeding continues, and there is no way this many people can live with energy supplies dwindling.

[Conservativesux]

100. Me too. but it's too late for ZPG to do any good at this point...

in time.

There is no way to keep feeding 6.2 billion people and rising on a decreasing oil supply, that is about to go into a steeper downslope in a few short years.

[Conservativesux]

99. Amen to that !!! I've lived a childless life because I knew this day would

...come in my lifetime.

I didnt want to compound the problem and have kids that would suffer long after I passed on.

No one wanted to listen 30 years ago and they dont want to hear it now.

They were too busy having more children, that use more food, that use more petroleum, that is on the downslope and ready to fall fast.

Overpopulation has insured that millions of people will suffer, starve and die when the oil crash really hits home in a few years.

[calimary]

113. Hugely scary, and you are, unfortunately, correct. Overpopulation IS

the problem. We are already outgrowing our own ability to sustain the population we have. And thanks to my lovely church, that's probably not going to change...

[MarkLewis]

37. Revelation? Hur hur hur...

People have only been talking about it for decades. Oh, of course, those people were "cultists" and "survivalists", so they don't count.

[Donailin]

43. I didn't mean it like that

I meant in light of the fact that this is now more fact than speculation by mainstream experts.

[sellitman]

85. MarkLewis...welcome to DU

Pull up a chair and grab a cold one.

[katinmn]

78. I guess this would be a good time to consider a warmer climate

We'll be freezing to death up north.

Won't be pretty.

[Conservativesux]

98. You should be frightened. Without enough oil the world economies..

will start to collapse.

2.50 a gallon for gasoline is just the beginning of the troubles we are in for.

[TheWraith]

121. Don't worry.

Many of the people who are drawn to this sort of thing are alarmists. Human civilization is resiliant and isn't going to be taken down. The world isn't ending, no matter what the Peak Oil People want to believe. See my post #120.

[Strelnikov_]

131. John? John Snow? Is That You? n/t

[antigone382]

132. chickens are cheap and easy to raise once you get the hang of it.

They're a good source of protein through both meat and eggs, and they can be sold or traded for other goods.

If it is legal to raise them where you live...and maybe even goats as well, for meat and milk, start now!

[dArKeR]

18. I saw several Discover, Animal Planet, PBS shows over the last decade

which showed interviews with scientists talking about various topics and the conversation goes into the future for whatever the topic they're talking about is and the scientist says, "well if we're alive in 100 years, most scientist don't believe so but if we are then..."

They've been saying this since the 70s so I guess we've got about 65 years left.

[Minstrel Boy]

5. "it is going to be very strange soon"

And this "new normal" has been plenty strange already.

Strange upon strange.

[radwriter0555]

10. Oil doesn't come from fossils.

Melted dinosaurs don't make oil.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. the Carboniferous Period

"There are three major forms of fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. All three were formed many hundreds of millions of years ago before the time of the dinosaurs - hence the name fossil fuels. The age they were formed is called the Carboniferous Period. It was part of the Paleozoic Era. "Carboniferous" gets its name from carbon, the basic element in coal and other fossil fuels."
http://www.energyquest.ca.gov/story/chapter08.html

[amazona]

82. oh for the love of Pete

Whoever wrote that paragraph you quoted should be arrested for fraud.

Plenty of oil and gas was formed more recently than the freakin' Carboniferous. Ever heard of the Gulf of Mexico. That's Pleistocene, for cripes' sake.

The idea that oil/gas/coal were only formed during the Carboniferous is a bit over-the-top. I haven't heard even the most extreme nutters put that one over.

Hysteria is not a good response to crisis. Our current gas prices are caused by gouging, not by lack of supply. Hysteria about "peak oil" is great for the oil industry, because it makes a product that isn't all that freakin' rare become over-valued as rare.

In another post above, a poster described how he has lived the last 30 years in fear, thinking every single day (or so he said) of "the coming crisis." What is life if you give decades over to fear?

The conservation movement is a breeding ground of communists
and other subversives. We intend to clean them out,
even if it means rounding up every birdwatcher in the country.
--John Mitchell, US Attorney General 1969-72

[megatherium]

86. The energy companies don't have that much control over the price of oil.

Why else would they have let the price collapse so much in the 1980s? That caused huge job losses in the industry, a collapse of real estate in Texas, which in turn caused the savings and loan meltdown and then a big recession. Bush senior didn't get a second term. In those days, there was surplus production capacity. The oil shocks of the 1970s made people conserve petroleum, which left the price of oil to freefall.

But now, there is very little excess production capacity left globally for petroleum, a million barrels a day (world oil production is 80 million barrels per day). Now if the world demand stayed constant, and there were a gradual shift to alternative fuels, we would avoid calamities and all of the yelling and screaming. But demand is going up rapidly -- China demand in particular is increasing 4% per year, and they already use more oil than Japan.

What happens when a critical commodity (for which demand is not very elastic) starts to become scarce? The price will zoom upwards and also be volatile. This is what has already happened to natural gas -- the US uses lots of natural gas, mainly for electricity, but domestic production has begun to go into decline. Expect the same for oil.

[robertpaulsen]

89. Boy, you completely misinterpreted Minstrel Boy's post.

He was responding to the suggestion that oil was created from dinosaur fossils, and refuted that quite succinctly. Nowhere did he suggest that oil was ONLY created before dinosaurs came into existence.

Did you even bother to read the link Minstrel Boy provided? You posted:

The idea that oil/gas/coal were only formed during the Carboniferous is a bit over-the-top. I haven't heard even the most extreme nutters put that one over.

Yet here's another paragraph from the link:

Some deposits of coal can be found during the time of the dinosaurs. For example, thin carbon layers can be found during the late Cretaceous Period (65 million years ago) - the time of Tyrannosaurus Rex.


You are correct in stating that hysteria is not a good response to crisis. I say that intense research is. Do some more research on Peak Oil, you'll discover that the CIA has been studying this since at least 1977, when they predicted the Soviet Union would peak in the early 80's (it actually happened in 1987).

http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Peak Oil is not hysteria. It is a geological fact. The question is not if, but when.

[rman]

102. but rotting vegetation does make oil.

no-one actually claims oil comes from "melted dinosaurs"

and abiotic oil theory that you refer to has no credibility in the oil industry.

[cliss]

27. They can't hide it any longer.

The White House can spin all the propaganda they want. It doesn't matter. Because what's going to matter to the average American is the price at the pump.

It's going to keep steadily moving up. We don't need to wait until 2007. It's already here.

[Pachamama]

95. Husband just got back from Vietnam - said the "oil" consumption of the

scooters that everyone drives is out of control...less than a decade ago, if one was to have gone to Hanoi or any other developing Nation, people rode bicycles. Now everyone is on these polluting motor scooters. It's the same everywhere...oil consumption and dependence just keeps on rising and the taste for petro just keeps on growing...

[Conservativesux]

101. Makes sense to me. It's called "Jevons Paradox"

You can read more about it here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

[Pachamama]

105. This is why I love the DU! I learn something everyday! Thx!

"Jevon's Paradox"... a new term for me to use and concept to understand...

"This paradox illustrates how difficult it is to solve global economic problems".....global energy consumption too...

[varun]

106. scooters give very good mileage

compared to cars. I'd rather have the Vietnamese (and everyone else in the world) drive scooters than cars. The only problem is that these scooters are very polluting. I wonder if they can add a catalytic converter to reduce emissions in a scooter.

[katty]

116. Many credible sources believe @Peak Oil now

www.oilcrash.com, www.fromthewilderness and a slew of others

[Massachusetts]

3. Got ya covered...not to worry

[DoYouEverWonder]

6. There is so much we can do right now

to make the transition so much easier.

If we had some real leadership we wouldn't be concerned about societies collapse, instead we would be converting and conserving as much as possible.

Of course, trying to solve the problem isn't what the doomsayers want, so we won't talk about solutions.

[4dsc]

8. Tough decisions call for tough leadership

and right now, there are not too many politicians that are going to go out on a limb and sound the alarm about the upcoming shortages.. I believe its out of fear of sounding like a doomsayer or being labeled one by the press. The message is not mainstream because corporate America doesn't want it to be..

Congressman Bartlett sounded the alarm but is basicially alone!!

[NEOBuckeye]

31. Bush & Cheney should be Impeached and forced out of office for this.

Preferably for a new office in a 3 x 5 PRISON cell.

That they've done absolutely nothing to address Peak Oil is criminal negligence on their part.

That they KNEW about it and chose to start a murderous war on lies and deception, is TREASON and grounds for Capital Punishment.

Of course, I'm against the electric chair, not so much for humanitarian reasons, but for the fact that it's the easy way out. I say let them live and answer directly to the PEOPLE for their crimes.

[MarkLewis]

36. Bush, Clinton, Bush Sr., Reagan... and so on...

It's not one administration that ignored this problem, you know. "Survivalists" and "Gun Nuts" have been whining about it for decades, but it wasn't urgent so no one cared. Now it's urgent, and Bush and his gang are suddenly to blame for it. Don't be short-sighted. This problem should've been apparent since the 1970s.

[Donailin]

50. You're absolutely right

and welcome to DU !

[NEOBuckeye]

51. Shortsighted? Not even close, my friend.

I did happen to take the initiative in petitioning the DU Admins to open a Peak Oil discussion. I don't think that I would have done so, had I not already possessed a deeper understanding of this subject and felt that it was soon to be of critical importance to our mission here at DU.

You will forgive me, however, if my ire is mostly directed towards the current administration. I could have easily blamed Reagan, Bush I and Clinton for not addressing this problem. But let's live in the Present. The Bush Administration, by hook or by crook, are the ones in charge right now. As such, they must take full responsibility for the issues at hand, or else abdicate and make way for those who can.

Welcome to DU

[Strelnikov_]

75. It Was. That Is Why Carter Called For Transformation And Sacrifice

And the GOP were elected on "Morning In America".

Clinton/Gore came into office calling for increased efficiency and development of alternative sources. The GOP takeover in 94 effectively ended any chance of Gore's ideas being pushed forward.

So, yes, I place the entire blame for our sorry predicament on the GOP. Any other conclusion is reich-wing revisionist history.

[abelenkpe]

7. Y'know

I was talking about the whole peak oil crisis at work the other day and all of my office mates felt that there would be no problem. That society would just figure it out and the transition would be smooth. That the possibility of economic hardship was impossible this day in age. Now, being a relatively pessimistic human I thought these guys are living in a fantasy world. But really, I do hope they are right and I am wrong. Don't you?

[4dsc]

14. Try this analogy

http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/lecture.html

10. Depletion
Depletion is an easy concept to grasp.

· Think of an Irish pub full of happy people. Think of their pleasure at the first sip from a full glass

· Think of the frowns that begin to cross their faces when their glasses are half-empty. They know they have drunk more than is left. It is the turning point

· Watch them savour the last drops

· But the evening is young. When the glasses are empty, they can order another round.

· But eventually closing time comes when there are no more rounds to be had

· That is the meaning of depletion

· We need to know how big each glass - or oilfield - is, and

· We need to know how many more rounds there are - that is to say how many more oilfields are left to find

[radwriter0555]

9. It stinks. It's all PEAK OIL PEAK OIL PEAK OIL. All the people related to

the site are tied to the bush administration oil hysteria policies and are simply voicing the same opinion without any genuine background on their position.

It's frail and without validity.

I smell rotting fish.

There is no peak oil. We're not running out of oil.

We don't need to invade Iran.

[aneerkoinos]

24. Without validity?

No, the scientific background is very sound and hard to argue convincingly against - unless one is a flat-earth economist.

Net is full of info, some good, some less so. Check it out, google Colin Campbell, read, read, read, then make your judgement. That's what others did, not taking some DUers word for it but reading the material.

[jpak]

25. The US sure as hell IS running out of oil

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/blanchard/

And global production is peaking as well...

Where is all this marvelous undiscovered oil that we're not running out of??????

(clue: it ain't there...)

[Strelnikov_]

33. The Conspiracy Is The Lack Of Appropriate Action

That is, enforced efficiency improvements and development of alternative sources of energy.

Cheney as much acknowledged that peak will occur in the latter part of this decade at a speech in 1999 when he was still an 'official' oilman. Yet the reich-wing media and echo chamber spouts the party line that additional supplies will come on line. All one has to do is read about the wildly exaggerated EIA estimates to know that the facts are being covered up.

The peaking of worldwide conventional (high EROEI) petroleum is real, and will probably occur within the next few years. During the initial 10 yrs.+ following peak oil, petroleum will still be readily available. But with demand chronically outstripping supply, prices will go through the roof, and the profits for those selling the oil will be massive.

Due to the 15-20 yr. lead time required to transition our energy profile to conventional petroleum alternatives, demand destruction through high prices will be the only mitigation available. Why this transition did not begin 15 yrs. ago is the conspiracy.

[Minstrel Boy]

38. I agree in part, but I think it's a different conspiracy.

Peak oil is real, but there is also an evident lack of appropriate response to it. We need to ask why.

Read Nick Cook's credible The Hunt for Zero Point, for evidence of the covert, longstanding, deep-black pursuit of anti-gravity research. I suspect preparations are being made for a post-carbon world that doesn't involve the bulk of us. I wrote about it on my blog here:

http://rigorousintuition.blogspot.com/2005/03/is-it-future-yet.html

[Donailin]

52. O man.

Before I was a political junkie, I was a theological junkie, but before that I was an ET junkie. Anti-gravity technology most definitely exists. Something about harnessing the energy from the earths gravitational field which is practically infinite -- and ultimately FREE.

[Henny Penny]

61. Anti-gravity technolgy..."

definitely exists"- but maybe not on earth.

Do you have any links, or a hypothesis as to how it might be made to work?

[Donailin]

66. google

anti-gravity technology, there's plenty. I haven't read anything recently, and haven't looked in years but I bought this little device back in the 90's called "levitron" it's an anti-gravity top that spins and hovers over a magnetic field inside a wood box. The theory is the same. "It floats by using the lifting power produced by opposed permanant magnets. The "Top" magnet is stabilized by the gyroscopic effect spinning produces"

[Minstrel Boy]

69. One example:

http://www.hutchisoneffect.com/

[bin.dare]

84. Hutchinson , Podkletnov , Li ....

IMO, there is no credible evidence for the Hutchinson effect in the scientific literature. MB if you have it i would love to read it. Meanwhile, i put Hutchinson (and Bearden) in the snake oil category.

Slightly different is Podkletnov at Tampere U. in Findland and Ning Li formerly at U. of Alabama, Huntsville. The former claims a 2% reduction in weight (altho' his paper was withdrawn from a british physics conf.), the latter agrees with the theory but says she cannot duplicate his experiments. Li had received research money from NASA as part of their propulsion program.

Li is an interesting case because it seems (after disappearing for a few years) she has started her own company called AC Gravity, Inc. Here is a funding snippet that may be of interest (the low level of funding suggests to me the research is not going very far very fast):

Department of Defense Annual Report on Cooperative Agreements and Other Transactions Entered into During FY2001 Under 10 USC 2371
Agreement Number: DAAH01-01-9-R001
Type of Agreement: Other Transaction for Prototype
Title: Gravito - Electro Magnetic Superconductivity Experiment
Awarding Office: US Army Aviation and Missile Command (AMCOM), AMSAM-AC-RD-BA
Awardee: AC Gravity, LLD
Effective Date: 25 Apr 2001
Completion Date: 25 Sep 2002
U.S. Government Dollars: $448,970

[Minstrel Boy]

88. The Hutchinson Effect doesn't really belong in scientific literature,

because even Hutchinson can't explain what it is. Still, I think it's real, which puts Hutchinson far above someone like Bearden in my books. (Again, I'd say go to The Hunt for Zero Point for a credible accounting of it.)

[bin.dare]

92. surely you mis-spoke ...

... saying anti-gravity research does not belong in scientific literature! Hutchinson claims to have raised a 70lb cannon ball!

jeez MB, removing this topic from science certainly ties my hands.

As regards the Hunt for Zero point, Nick Cook is a journalist, not a scientist. His book is very poor at explaining the science of "zero point" and so in all truth, it is not something i find credible on this subject.

On the other hand, his book is good in terms of telling a story that connects the Nazi war machine with black ops stuff today. BTW, why would anyone trust this Witkowski character? and why do so many people fall for the crap idea that Nazi Germany was so advanced that they had "alien technology"? is this just more of the german super race thing?

In any event, i am looking for decent science grounded stuff on this topic, if you come across any, please post it.

[bin.dare]

72. "harnessing" and "free" do not go together ...

... at best, you are talking about energy conversion. do you have any idea of the cost (the energy cost) of this conversion? No? neither do i. but by way of comparison do you have any idea of the total (energy) cost of nuclear power?

[Donailin]

104. i have no idea

but from my understanding, gravity is everywhere as opposed to oil which is not. But you are right, the cost to develope and the cost of transition is not free.

[Henny Penny]

63. "I suspect preparations are being made...

for a post-carbon world that doesn't involve the bulk of us."

Unfortunately I am coming round to this view myself. I am beginning to think that the people in charge of the US right now are all too interested in curbing population growth or worse.

It is certainly clear that they are willing to go to great lengths to protect the oil supply. But if this anti-gravity technology exists, why are they so concerned about oil?

[Minstrel Boy]

71. oil is a means of control

If anti-grav technology exists, as I believe it does, then the importance of oil is not that they need it, but that we need it.

[jpak]

44. Not so much a Conspiracy as it was Stupidly

It began with Reagan - he put an end to every program that would have set us on a path to energy security and prosperity in a post-petroleum world - and it's continuing today with the Chimp.

Back in 1982, if we all had driven cars that got 40 mpg (and they did exist back then), the US could have joined OPEC.

But instead, we've squandered our domestic petroleum and natural gas reserves,and never took conservation, mass transit or renewable energy seriously.

...and now the chickens are coming home to roost...

The GOP and the Moran Electorate are the guilty parties - not some unseen conspiritors...

[Strelnikov_]

60. Granted There Is No Secret Cabal Running Things

But would not suppression and manipulation of information, such as the EIA petroleum estimates, indicate "an agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful, or subversive act", ergo a conspiracy.

And would not invading another country using false rationale as a reason (WMD, terraists) to secure petroleum supplies indicate "an agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful, or subversive act", ergo a conspiracy.

And my belief is that the purpose of said conspiracy is to maintain the status quo. That is, maintenance of an economy dependent on petroleum based energy sources.

[natrat]

40. what do you think, theres an endless supply of the stuff?

if not now then 10 years. An enlightened society would plan ahead, but we bash gays.

[megatherium]

62. No, we're not running out of oil, but

world oil production appears to have already peaked, while world oil demand is still increasing. World oil production will start to slowly decline. True, we won't actually run out of oil for many years, but it is going to become very expensive (and prices will be volatile). This has already happened to natural gas in the United States; our natural gas is almost entirely from North America, and it is in decline -- prices are way up and very volatile.

Our economy is tied to readily available petroleum in many ways: agriculture (pesticides as well as fuels); manufacturing (asphalt roads, plastics, etc), as well as transportation. We don't have a good substitute at hand. The result will be recessions that come right after another, possibly worsening to depression. Or wars. Oh, hey, we're already in an oil war, and it isn't going so well (Iraq's oil production is still less than when we invaded).

It may be that after the present hysteria, oil prices will decline to the levels of a couple of years ago. But you can be sure they'll go up again. The increasing consumption of China and India will ensure that. And there are ominious indications that the Saudi oil fields have reached their peak.

[Terry in Austin]

124. no peak oil... not running out of oil

Back it up, pardner. Give us some facts, not a credo. Some links would be nice.

[BeFree]

11. Sorry, kids

We knew this was coming at us like an out of control train, yet we didn't do a dad-gum thing.

We will use up most of the oil, real soon. You kids won't live the life we did. You will have no cheap source of energy like we have had. And what have we done with most of that supply? Wasted it on frivolous and cheap desires.

I wouldn't blame you kids one bit for rising up and putting an end to our wanton destruction of your birthrights. In fact, I'd have a great deal of respect; respect I no longer have for my own generation.

[Robeysays]

94. thanks that means a lot to me but im ready i got a huge stock pile...

MREs guns and gaurd dogs. i say bring it on, im also making a farm ahahahahahaha haahahahahahah.

[Delphinus]

13. I'm glad to see

it's hitting LBN - not just the Peak Oil group.

[femme.democratique]

15. Is it true that many on DU dismiss Peak Oil?

What is it that they don't understand? No oil = no gas, shampoo, plastics, pharmaceuticals, and on and on and on

People do not realize that it isn't just about cars. When the price of oil goes up, anything that is derived from oil will become more costly. So, you have people able to spend less because basic life necessities are more expensive so people lose their jobs and even more people can spend less...a vicious cycle that spares none but the most uber-wealthy.

[4dsc]

16. I don't know!!

But no oil means no FOOD as we have it now..

I seen estimates that state organic farming at best could support about 2 billion people world wide.. Now how many people currently populate this planet?? 6-7 billion?? Somethings got to give..

[lakeguy]

wow, 2 billion seems high...

is that if everyone who is still alive is farming?

[NEOBuckeye]

35. High-Yield Farming can continue without Oil. Go ORGANIC.

It's entirely possible that high-yield Organic Farming methods could sustain the entire present human population on Earth, and then some. We will likely, however, have to bust down and revoke the corporate charters of a few companies (i.e. Monsanto) who are using their muscle to prevent it from emerging.

Damned corporations. Always getting in the way of the good stuff...

--

Can Organic Farming "Feed the World"?
by Christos Vasilikiotis, Ph.D.

The legacy of Industrial Agriculture

With the world population passing the 6 billion mark last October, the debate over our ability to sustain a fast growing population is heating up. Biotechnology advocates in particular are becoming very vocal in their claim that there is no alternative to using genetically modified crops in agriculture if "we want to feed the world". Actually, that quote might be true. It depends what they mean by "we." It's true if the "we can feed the world" refers to the agribusiness industry, which has brought the world to the brink of food disaster and is looking for a way out. Biotech just may be their desperation move. "We'll starve without biotech," is the title of an opinion piece by Martina McGloughlin, Director of the Biotechnology program at the University of California, Davis. Could be. Modern industrial agricultural — which forms the foundation for biotech — ranks as such a dismal failure that even Monsanto holds them up as the evil alternative.

"The commercial industrial technologies that are used in agriculture today to feed the world... are not inherently sustainable," Monsanto CEO Robert Shapiro told the Greenpeace Business Conference recently. "They have not worked well to promote either self-sufficiency or food security in developing countries." Feeding the world sustainably "is out of the question with current agricultural practice," Shapiro told the Society of Environmental Journalists in 1995. "Loss of topsoil, of salinity of soil as a result of irrigation, and ultimate reliance on petrochemicals ... are, obviously, not renewable. That clearly isn't sustainable."

Shapiro is referring to the 30-year-old "Green Revolution" which has featured an industrial farming system that biotech would build on: the breeding of new crop varieties that could effectively use massive inputs of chemical fertilizers, and the use of toxic pesticides. As Shapiro has hinted, it has led to some severe environmental consequences, including loss of topsoil, decrease in soil fertility, surface and ground water contamination, and loss of genetic diversity.

Do we really need to embark upon another risky technological fix to solve the mistakes of a previous one? Instead, we should be looking for solutions that are based on ecological and biological principles and have significantly fewer environmental costs. There is such an alternative that has been pioneered by organic farmers. In contrast to the industrial/monoculture approach advocated by the biotech industry, organic agriculture is described by the United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) as "a holistic production management system which promotes and enhances agro-ecosystem health, including biodiversity, biological cycles, and soil biological activity."

Much more -- http://www.energybulletin.net/1469.html

[Strelnikov_]

126. The Primary Result Of Industrial Agriculture Was Reduced Manpower

The following statement from the article is consistent with what I have learned from talking to older people who remember farming prior to the 'Green Revolution'.

As someone related, farming a 1/4 section farm in Iowa was a full time job in the old days, whereas today they will plant a couple of sections in a few days. One pass to plant, a couple more to apply herbicides/ pesticides/chemical fertilizer during the growing season, and one final pass to harvest.

I believe when energy costs become too high for current industrial agriculture, there will be a repopulation of the rural Midwest as sustainable agricultural on the 1/4 section farm makes a comeback.

The emphasis on small-scale family farms has the potential to revitalize rural areas and their economies. Counter to the widely held belief that industrial agriculture is more efficient and productive, small farms produce far more per acre than large farms. Industrial agriculture relies heavily on monocultures, the planting of a single crop throughout the farm, because they simplify management and allow the use of heavy machinery.

[depakid]

76. What they don't understand is math

or science.

A predictable result of 25 years of divesting in education and ridiculing intellectuals.

[TheWraith]

120. It's because of the Peak Oil People.

There's a significant contingent on DU who portray peak oil as the end of civilization as we know it, featuring mass starvation, nuclear war, dogs and cats living together, and the only survivors being the people who are growing beans in their bathtub. These people are, for lack of a better term, kooks. Yes, oil will run out sooner or later, but the various 'solutions' these people come up with are laughably underplanned and ineffectual. I see them as the far-left equivalent of the 'rapture' types on the right--walking Cassandra complexes who envision a day when everyone will be forced to live the way that they see as being right and proper.

It's not the end of the world, it's just a little change. Replacements and new technology will be found. To claim that the only way to survive the 'oil crash,' or whatever sensationalistic fringe phrase they come up with for it, is to live off a garden in your back yard is just crazy. Production of food and goods won't suddenly stop. It's like somebody in the 1850s arguing that it's impossible to grow cotton without slave labor. It's just not true. The Peak Oil People keep talking about how people have to adapt or die. True, but they never seem to consider that society will adapt to the lack of oil, rather than backsliding to the 18th century, which seems to be the fantasy life of the POP.

[Terry in Austin]

123. Got facts?

We know you've got sneer, but that doesn't really cut it, does it?

You're right, it doesn't happen suddenly, and yes, some of the scenarios are probably extreme. However, the fact remains that the modern world is premised on abundant, cheap petroleum. We're able to feed the four or five billion extra people on the planet because of petroleum-intensive food production.

Petroleum will soon be too expensive to support the basic premise. When it gets there, you can bet it's going to be "a little change." The cotton analogy doesn't even begin to cover it.

[Nihil]

127. You really haven't got a clue have you?

> Production of food and goods won't suddenly stop.

No-one is claiming that this will happen overnight but this is not
a slow process: once it starts, it accelerates due to feedback.

What will happen is that the price of raw materials will rise (due to
transportation costs) thus the price of secondary & tertiary goods
will rise. Processed food falls into this category. Imported food
falls into this category. I'm not just talking about microwave dinners
and pop-tarts: you look in the supermarket and see how much produce
comes from local farmers versus how much comes from elsewhere.
Take that stuff off the shelf. Now consider how all of the people
in the supermarket are now competing for the little that is left.
This is just one small example from the library of examples (we haven't
touched on how even the local farmer is probably using oil-derived
fertiliser, will be using oil-based fuels and will be needing to
increase his own prices to allow *his* family to buy things in the
hyperinflationary market that is developing).

> It's not the end of the world, it's just a little change.
> Replacements and new technology will be found.

Yep, just get down on your knees and pray to the LORD and have FAITH
brothers & sisters, the LORD will provide!

[4dsc]

136. It's not the end of the world, it's just a little change.??

A little change??


Because petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car. As geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer points out in his article entitled, “Eating Fossil Fuels,” approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.

The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

1. Pesticides are made from oil;

2. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from
natural gas, which is also about to peak.

3. Farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed
and powered using oil;

4. Food distribution networks are entirely dependant on oil. In the US, the average piece of food is transported 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate;

In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs.

It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.

Most of the consumer goods you buy are made with plastic, which is derived from oil.

All manufacturing processes consume voracious amounts of oil. For instance, the average car - including hybrids - consumes the energy contained in 25-50 barrels (or about 1,200-2,400 gallons) of oil during its construction, while the average computer consumes 10 times its weight in fossil fuels during its construction.

All electrical devices - including solar panels and windmills - make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, all of which are discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil-powered machinery.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html

[0007]

19. The next BIG crunch will be wars over water

Then we can put our heads between our legs and kiss our ass good bye.

[havocmom]

21. Yes indeedie! There is a reason the corporations have been getting us

used to buying bottled water. They are getting all the sources under their control and the tap is about to go dry.

Learn to garden. Collect rainwater for the garden.

[reprobate]

29. I don't think the corporations will survive the coming crunch.

Seems to me that when the very structure of our society breaks down, so will the structures of the corporations, Especially when some of the angry population start blaming them for the collapse. Then the ones in dange will be the CEOs.

[megatherium]

64. unless they stampede the public into fascism. nt

[raccoon]

109. That might be one good thing

to come out of the whole mess.

[truthisfreedom]

22. hmm. i wonder how much it would cost to have my well re-opened.

[phusion]

26. I want to find some tribe in South America...

And just go live with or alongside them while this disaster rides itself out. Anyone want to join me?

[varun]

46. come to small village, India

where people have been living as they were thousands of years ago...from their land, without the use of oil.

Also an average Indian consumes only about 1/20 oil of an average western person. They have learned to live with very little energy. Everyone knows when to switch off their lights, and carpooling (most people dont use cars anyway). Most of the country is warm, so no need for heating oil. Lots of sunshine for solar energy.

This will be good as long as Western countries do not attack India to claim its natural resources, and warm land after they start feeling the pinch...

[phusion]

47. That sounds pretty good...

Might take you up on it one of these days. :)

[aneerkoinos]

53. Closer to US

There is Cuba, with society that survived worse than Peak Oil (a sudden Collapse of Oil) but yet was able not only to maintain high standards in education and medicare, but to create out of nothing a viable and self sufficient organic agriculture, leading to a healthy diet: loads of vegies, some grains, very little meat (once a weak).

Peak Oil is not the biggest problem, capitalism is. And Cuban socialism gives us one good example where to go, how to survive.

[varun]

56. My Cuban friend agrees with you

Cubans have been ingenious in using whatever resources they could get to maintain relatively good living standards.

It helps that Cuba has great weather and natural resources though.

[Strelnikov_]

70. Hammer Hits Nail

Peak oil will result in demand for a price inelastic commodity chasing too little, and eventually declining, supply. Price transients will wreak economic havoc to capitalist economies similar to the 70' shocks. A persistent recession will ensue.

But it is the thermodynamic aspect of peak oil that will lead to the 2nd Great Depression. As the decline in conventional oil accelerates, EROEI (thermodynamics) will at a minimum severely depress, and probably destroy, capitalist economies.

All of the post-peak supply mitigation options have net energy returns well below those of even today’s conventional oil. This means we will have to work hard just to replace the Quads of conventional oil energy lost. Growth in energy supply will not be possible, therefore the economic growth required by capitalist economies will also not be possible.

That said, there is no reason that with sound leadership through the transition a vibrant economy with sustainability and quality of life as goals cannot emerge at the other end of the ‘Long Emergency’. This economy would probably be a fusion of socialist principles on the macro scale and free market on the micro scale.

[amazona]

83. do you understand the life expectancy of people in these tribes?

I'm in my forties, so I'm already older than that! Subsistence farming is a miserable lifestyle. "Nasty, brutish, and short" is about right. I saw people in Kenya so poor they couldn't afford a clothes line and had to dry their clothes by spreading them out on the ground. Do you understand what I am saying? People so poor they couldn't afford a bit of rope. And there were a lot of them. I wouldn't assume we can just go re-locate in someone else's country and do better than they are doing once we use this one up. We've got to fix our problems here on the ground in my humble opinion.

The conservation movement is a breeding ground of communists
and other subversives. We intend to clean them out,
even if it means rounding up every birdwatcher in the country.
--John Mitchell, US Attorney General 1969-72

[phusion]

93. Who said subsistence farming?

Sure, almost all worldwide populations have been forced into subsistence farming or worse by government pressure to assimilate. But there are a handful that still practice hunting/gathering and small-scale, supplemental gardening.

Also, don't forget that typical life expectancy figures take into account infant mortality which is generally much higher w/o modern technology.

My comment was sort of tongue-in-cheek, though. I know we can't just drop it all and go live in the jungle...

:)

[LdyGuique]

30. I've maintained for some time that humans are essentially

short-sighted, self-centered, and selfish in nature and violent to boot. Nothing that I've seen posted in DU threads on peak oil and global warming has caused me to change my mind. DUers pride themselves on caring about human conditions on a worldwide basis, but anytime these topics come up, it rapidly becomes a form of "everyman for himself" type of survival reaction. Perhaps, it's within the nature of all life forms -- survive at all costs long enough to reproduce one's replacements.

The recently-released Millenium Ecosystem Assessment reports are the result of scientists from around the world's intensive research on the widely varying "state of the world" issues that all humankind is and will be facing. It's a grim picture of overpopulation taxing environmental resources beyond the ability of earth to recover -- it took us about 150 years to get here and will take us equally long to undo much of the damage. It particularly noted that the type of metro areas which have suburbs and urban centers would be hard hit.

I've posted several times a particularly draconian couple of solutions to at least stave off the immediacy of peak oil and high oil price conditions and have never received a single "reply" either for or against:

1) In all metro areas that have multi-lane freeways, make all but one lane into "diamond" lanes, i.e., requiring two or more occupants to the vehicle from 6am to 8pm. This would accomplish the following:

a) at a minimum, halve the traffic, thereby reducing gridlock;
b) at a minimum, substantially reduce the amount of gasoline being consumed on a daily basis for commuting from suburbs to urban centers;
c) reduce these same drivers' gasoline budgets substantially as a shared resource would drop below current gasoline prices;
d) reduce air pollution.

With the era of websites and computer use, it would be relatively easy to match up with fellow commuters in most cases.

2) Within the metro areas themselves, remake the city grid of streets for different types of traffic. For other than local traffic, or delivery of goods, make some streets 20-25mph absolute max that would cater to bicycles, mopeds, scooters, segways, etc.; make some streets bus and vanpool streets only. These changes, in combination with lowered commuter traffic vehicles would allow for substantially less traffic overall.

These suggestions could be enacted within a fairly short period of time to deal with immediate issues. Then, look at the longer term issues of increased mass transit.

Yesterday, Mikhail Gorbachev started a clean water campaign. Over 5 million people die annually for waterborne diseases. If cruise ships can have desaliniazation plants contained right on ship to deal fresh water needs and have treatment facilies for gray and wastewater, there is no reason that either shouldn't be part of a larger picture.

Even with global warming the the gradual loss of lockedup fresh water from the two polar zones, there are technological solutions that can be employed for converting seawater to fresh water.

Humankind is facing some grim times ahead. Our population tripled in the last 50 years from 2 billion to over 6 billion. Natural and human-caused disasters will continue to cut bigger swathes through the living. "Biggest" and "Greatest" will continue to haunt the headlines as deathtolls will rise. While some would argue that HIV/AIDs isn't a true pandemic, its statistics give little comfort to a definition. During the past 20 years, more than 20 million people have died from AIDs and over 40 million people are infected with HIV/AIDs right now.

If there is a flu-type pandemic, or several, it can be expected that similar numbers will succumb. And, those who will be hit hardest will be those already under a burden of malnutrition and/or starvation.

According to estimates from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), there are currently 852 million people on the planet living in hunger. Chronic hunger affects some 300 million children, and every year, 30 million babies are born weighing less than 2.5 kilograms, primarily as a result of maternal malnutrition, said SCN chair Catherine Bertini.

Back in 1798, Thomas Malthus wrote extensively on the topic of population. His ideas received a resurrection during the mid-20th Century. There are various adherants to "Malthusian" doctrine -- and it's worth reading. The "International Society of Malthus," has its own website and it's worth a read.

There are no simple solutions for that which faces humankind over the next several decades. Some of it is beyond our abilities to mend, but much of it can be fixed with substantial changes to outlook and social order. If we continue to hang onto beliefs formed in a much simpler time, we are doomed.

[aneerkoinos]

54. Not humans

Home Consumericus, yes, everything you say, but Homo Sapiens is not defined by one single socioeconomic model of Greed and Capitalism, but has potential (proven by many various cultures) for learning to live in a sustainable culture, in harmony with the enviroment.

[NewsHound123]

34. Oil Shortage Has Already Hit West Coast !

The local stations in Oregon are buying gasoline and diesel from Mexico. Why are prices 60 cents a gallon higher and why buy fuel from Mexico?

Because the entire West Coast is isolated away from major oil refineries in Texas, the South, mid-West and the East:

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1113645903174850.xml

The large oil refineries in the San Francisco Bay Area (Richmond) and Los Angeles County are closed down today. In the meantime, people are still buying their fuel guzzling SUV's driving prices up for everybody. (Law of Supply and Demand).

And oil company executives laugh and joke at private meetings about record high earnings?

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/news/politics/041305_politics_oil.html

Standard Oil-Texaco-Unocal have merged happily . . . Something tells me there are big storms brewing on the horizon for the oil companies. The storm may impact every political figure in the U.S. who is tied to oil company money.

High Oil prices are just beginning to impact the global economy. Already, they are causing U.S. stock markets to suffer dramatic losses.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20050416/RECON16/TPBusiness/International

Watch what happens tomorrow when the markets open.

More about high oil prices hurting global economy:

http://newspundit.net

[brokensymmetry]

49. Peak is now.

Thank you for posting this - we need to start getting our act together yesterday. Jimmy Carter tried...unfortunately, few listened.

[Matthias]

80. Not yet

Geologists think there are still fifty years worth of oil left, though it is still a pressing matter. The only thing to really do is convert entirely to nuclear power, which is quite safe, as no other alternative energy source can not meet our needs at the present. Eventually we will need to go beyond nuclear though, as we don't know what to do with all the left overs from nuclear plants.

[megatherium]

87. The problem is that the supply and demand curves are about to cross.

That's the implication of peak oil, which is where we are now. So not everyone will get the oil they want. It will get more expensive and this will cause recessions, wars, etc. If you live in the outer suburbs in a McMansion, and you commute to work in your shiny $30,000 SUV, you won't be a happy camper. If you bought a nice condo downtown and you enjoy walking to neighborhood shops and restaurants, you'll be pleased with yourself as your condo appreciates in value.

Nuclear might be good for baseline generation capacity. But solar is starting to look good; it will be cheaper (for peak power generation especially) than nuclear before long.

[d_b]

55. I can hardly wait!

[SKKY]

67. Sorry folks, but for some reason this Peak Oil stuff seems like the...

...Boogey Man to me. I don't know from what, but I feel like my attention is being diverted to this when it should be elsewhere.

[katinmn]

74. Like how the economy is "wobbling" under oil prices?

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0418/p01s02-usec.html
Economy wobbles under cost of oil

Energy prices clip consumer buying and corporate earnings, sending stock market down, but recoveries often hit soft spots.

By Ron Scherer | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

NEW YORK – Higher energy prices are starting to slow the US economy.
While economists have predicted such an effect for months, it's finally here - evident in lower retail sales, growing inventories of cars, and fewer new jobs.

In the second quarter, economic growth is expected to slow from last quarter's rambunctious 4-plus percent to closer to 3 percent. The slower growth probably means the Federal Reserve Board, which has hiked interest rates by a quarter point seven consecutive times, may begin to think about backing off perhaps as early as June.

Unfortunately, a slower economy also has other ramifications. There could be fewer jobs created in the future, business may hold off on new investments, and uncertainty about the economy may cause consumers to curb buying even more.

-more-

[Terry in Austin]

128. The "elsewhere"

Good instincts, there, to be alert for that type of thing... Actually, though, it's the other way around: the elsewhere -- neocons, the "war on terra," etc. -- are what's being used to divert our attention from this issue. Americans are in a deep state of denial about it, and this administration of oilmen is doing everything they can to keep it that way.

The energy bulletin link starting this thread is a great piece to start getting some facts on the global oil problem. Highly recommended reading.

Basically, world oil production has been flat and is going to be flat (at best) for at least the rest of the decade. Beyond that, it still doesn't look good. There just isn't enough oil in the ground to keep up with world demand.

Meanwhile, that demand has been averaging an increase of 2.5% per year, and last year it was up 3.3%. So we basically have a permanent shortfall where the supply and demand curves never meet. That's the front edge of the Peak Oil problem, the economic one.

Eventually, demand and consumption will fall due to high prices and restricted availability, but then that's the nub of the situation -- the world as we know it is based on high consumption of cheap and abundant energy, which so far can only be supplied by oil. When consumption falls, that's another way of saying that the very foundation of our current way of life is diminishing.

"Structural adjustments will occur accordingly" is probably the most polite way to put it.

[clem_c_rock]

73. The PNAC forsaw all this - WAR WAS THEIR SOLUTION

They knew what was coming- peak oil, economic meltdown.

So what did they do?

1. Steal election #1. Finally the suppressed PNAC freaks are
installed in positions of the highest power.

2. Fly planes into buildings and blame it on people who live in
most Oil rich, militarily strategic positions on the globe.
In one fell swoop, EVERY single part of their agenda, is now
achievable. Before 911, the PNAC couldn't have pushed for ONE
item in their plans.

3. Invasion begins of Oil land #1.

4. Invasion of oil land # 2.

5. Steal a second election, this time w/ the untracable electronic
voting machines. 4 more years of power.

6. Oil country # 3 (Iran) in our sites.

7. Insane plan fails w/ the meltdown of the US and world economy and
possible WWIII.

[leftofthedial]

79. why is the global response to this looming crisis

so muted

and so irrational . . .

[Geo55]

91. None of them have a clue....

the only response is to control the remaining energy resources.

Like a junkie on an extended high with a fix always waiting around the corner......never a thought about the dealer not being there tomorrow.

It won't take much to tip the global economic tight wire act.
When you hear plans for 2006 or beyond as if things will always be as they are.....it's not going to happen.

[rman]

103. I don't have a source at hand, but Eu officials

are saying (just outside of hearing distance of the MSM) that measures to prevent a catastrophy would be more costly then just letting the catasrophy happen.

And most folks who care more about people's wellbeing then about profits, they simply don't know it's happening.

[lostnfound]

96. Don't know what to think but bankruptcy bill could be a nice cushion

for the banks and corporate america.
Instead of our problems (the masses losing their jobs, facing inflation, etc) becoming their problems through bankruptcies.. debtors get converted into indentured servitude?

[SKKY]

110. Hmmm. Let's see. Let me offer this scenario.

I'm a large oil producing country in the Middle East. My researchers have found, in conjunction with other "like-minded" countries that there is an absolutely huge, freakin' enormous and as of yet untapped oil reserve that very, very few know about or have discovered. I know that this cannot last forever because people are climbing all over the world looking for oil. Would I think it was prudent to create a false shortage and drive up prices before the cat is let out of the bag so I can make as much money as possible and, as a pleasant by-product, drive the worlds largest super-power to the brink? Hmmm. Just maybe I would.
I know this isn't likely, but I wonder why, such a world-shaping trend is only discussed here. I seriously never hear much serious discussion about this anywhere else.

[endarkenment]

111. OK sure that is a possibility

It just isn't a likely possibility. This all could be a huge conspiracy to commit price gouging. Or it could be exactly what it appears to be: the obvious and rational and logical consequence of exponential demand growth running headlong into a finite resource supply crunch. Infinite cornucopia theories notwithstanding, I'd place my soon to be worthless money on peak oil and occam's razor before clever opec a-rabs conspiring to hide all their oil from us.

[SKKY]

112. And I would probably be right behind you in the line to place my bet...

...but I just can't figure out why this isn't a bigger issue. Why aren't people like Green Peace and other "environmental" groups screaming bloody murder about this? Why, if the auto industry knows they're about to have a bunch of useless paperweights on their hands, do they keep producing bigger and thirstier cars and trucks? So many people who would seem to have so much to loose appear, if this theory is true, to be driving this bus off the cliff themselves. It just doesn't make sense to me.

[endarkenment]

115. bus off cliff seguay

The phrase "bus off a cliff" is exactly the phrase used by a professor at my son's college in a parent's day seminar he held on "vital fluids: oil and water in the 21st century". It was indeed the major puzzle in all of this: what are our leaders thinking? We are in fact driving global civilization over a cliff, and our leaders are all pretending that everything is just fine.

[SKKY]

119. You may very well have read this before, but this is what makes sense...

...to me. I guess the most important thing I've taken from it is that, as soon as my Mazda is paid off, I'm going to follow the trend in Europe and get a Diesel car. It's a bit long, but worth it.

http://www.commoditytrader.com/archives/000158.php

[Hobarticus]

114. Just in time for Armageddon! Outta gas, outta time. eom

Don't worry, my tongue's firmly in cheek.

[WLKjr]

122. Say it with me everyone

H-Y-D-R-O-G-E-N F-U-E-L C-E-L-L-S!!!!!!!!



(or whatever else is cleaner!)

[4dsc]

125. PEAK OIL LECTURE!! Please read

http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/lecture.html

Here's a very informative lecture that will answer alot of lingering questions many people have..

I like this example:

[screembloodymurder]

134. Read the whole thing

we're so fucked.

[martymar64]

133. My Plan for after the Oil Crash

I live in Seattle, so there is a source of fish and shellfish out in Puget Sound. I plan on investing in a boat, starting with an outrigger modified canoe or kayak and fishing and crabbing on a subsistence level with hopefully a little left over to barter. I have a good community around me at Green Lake and there are several areas in the city that can be converted to agricultural use, parking lots being a big area for conversion. Also, blackberry bushes grow through the area like wildfire and are full of nutritious berries.
I feel the Pacific Northwest will come through the Oil Crash a little softer than most, although the death toll will indeed be high nonetheless.
I see as a result of the oil crash the political dissolution of the US, breaking into smaller geographically contiguous nations, such as Texas, New England, the West Coast, etc. As the interstate transportation system collapses, historically geographic barriers such as deserts and mountain ranges will again become significant.
I definitely plan on living through this, and to help make the resulting world a better place.

[chlamor]

137. review

[4dsc]

138. Bush to the rescue..

This is too funny!!

U.S. President George W. Bush said Tuesday he will raise concerns about the effects of high energy costs on the global economy when he meets next week with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah.

"I'm going to explain to him that, you know ... high-price crude oil will hurt the international economy," Bush told CNBC's Ron Insana in an interview.

The Saudi's are near peak oil with their production accoring to many so its going to be real hard for them to make much of a difference!! LIP SERVICE is all this is!

[Megahurtz]

139. Okay now can we dump this filthy gooey shit

and go on to another energy source that won't end up killing us all??

HELLO MORONS IN CHARGE!!!

:sarcasm: