STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 12 April

[ozymandius]

Tuesday April 12, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 283 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 120 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 176 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1234
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 10, 2005

Dow... 10,448.56 -12.78 (-0.12%
Nasdaq... 1,992.12 -7.23 (-0.36%)
S&P 500... 1,181.21 +0.01 (+0.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.45% -0.05 (-1.02%)
Gold future... 430.40 +1.60 (+0.37%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

Derivative Debate: A Practical Primer

They’re back in the news again - a lot lately. Derivatives. They have been mentioned in relation to woes at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, G.M. and A.I.G. to name but a few high profile users of these fandangled tools of modern day high finance.

Stated simply, a derivative is a proxy – or in financial nomenclature, a synthetically engineered product that derives its value from another underlying asset(s).

-cut-

It Cuts Both Ways

Recently, many companies having ‘accounting woes’ or off balance sheet concerns is increasingly becoming a euphemism for the acknowledgement of as yet unrealized derivatives losses. So what is it about these things called “derivatives” that seem to be at the root of so many problems?

The problem is multi-faceted. One issue is the fact that derivatives – with all their leverage – tend not to be accounted for on the balance sheets of companies that use them. These leveraged assets and liabilities are most often mentioned in corporate financial statements as footnotes or not at all. Valuation of derivatives can also include sophisticated dynamic concepts such as Value-at-Risk ; a measurement utilizing statistical techniques that have evolved from physics and engineering. Auditors, when examining a company’s financial statements, generally attest to their soundness at a point in time. These complexities dictate that derivatives can, in effect, take on different ‘personalities’ – if you will – depending on evolving market conditions or how their users' financial circumstances unfold.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[fasttense]

4. Derivatives (or accounting for them) sound like an excuse

for big business to do as they damn well please.

[Tace]

6. Unregulated Derivatives Are An Experiment

Their widespread use is a phenomenon of the last 10-15 years. Central bankers have their fingers crossed that they don't implode, but it remains to be seen how things work out.

[54anickel]

26. The implosion of derivatives was one of the predictions for 2004. It

seems the day of reckoning has been postponed (perhaps by the "conundrum" in interest rates). I don't believe for one minute that the threat has been alleviated in any way.

Heh, wonder if Greenspin is eating his words on what a wonderful tool they are for providing additional liquidity to the markets yet? That additional liquidity seems to biting him in the ass these days. :evilgrin:

Couple of old interesting articles I came across while looking for the one that made that prediction for 2004.


http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest%2BCommentary&content_idx=25048

A "Behind the Curtain" Look at Fed Desperation and Intervention Wizardry

snip>

Greenspan cannot control where all the Fed's stimulus will go or whether it will be productively put to use. America's manufacturing base has dropped from 30% down to less than 15% of the work force since 1970, and real productivity growth has slowed from an average 2.5% a year from 1947 to 1973 to somewhere closer to 1% a year since then. Manufacturing and productivity growth provide a vital bedrock for the creation of jobs and for the service economy. America has changed enormously in terms of such factors as demographics (immigration since the 1960's has been massively tilted towards less skilled Third World peoples, and California is now majority Mexican in origin), its level of savings (now nearly zero), trade policy (running historically high trade deficits), size of government (growing at about two to three times the rate of the overall economy with 60 percent devoted to entitlements), and energy self-sufficiency (declining). When Americans get extra spending power, they frequently buy goods made overseas rather than "buy American" and reinvest in American industry. They keep going further out on personal and corporate debt, yet no country has ever been able to perpetually borrow its way to prosperity. Too many corporate leaders unwisely use the time that "stimulus" buys them to subsidize malinvestment and overcapacity (currently 25%) or to carve out more perks for themselves rather than pursue the disciplined and prudent investment policies required for sustainable growth. Last but no least, Greenspan's liquidity pump has major hose leaks even on the asset level. James Puplava notes the beginning of a trend similar to the 1970's, where investors started losing confidence in "paper" (to include credit-related financial instruments) and started shifting their investment focus towards "things" (commodities). (5)

Regardless of intermarket spillovers and malinvestment issues, keeping the real estate and stock market asset bubbles inflated remains a top priority for Greenspan. His lowered interest rates help to reduce market rates of return on capital and support financial models with higher valuation multiples for the stock market. The S&P 500 is trading at about 32 times trailing one year Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings, and is still more overvalued than where most bear markets in American history have begun. Housing prices are straining historical relationships to income levels and rent rolls. American banks tend to be highly leveraged, and they desperately need for real estate and the stock market prices to stay propped up. Americans have more of their wealth in their homes than in the market, and rising housing prices have somewhat offset bear market losses over the last few years. Since consumer spending constitutes about 75% of gross domestic product, the Fed is worried that a sharp drop in both home values and stock market prices could trigger a "negative wealth effect," scaring people into spending less. This could slow down the economy. This in turn could create a vicious circle involving more layoffs, more bankruptcies, and more foreclosures. This could cause more asset prices to come down, resulting in even more fear and even less spending, leading to a steady downward spiral effect. (6)

snip>

Bears worry that if Fed intervention and national media spin doctoring were to stop tomorrow, and if free markets and normal intermarket relationships were allowed to work themselves out, 30 year bonds would sink, interest rates would rise back up towards high single digit or double digit levels, gold would rise to over $600 an ounce, the S&P would drop by over 50%, housing prices nationwide would crack by at least 20%, and the dollar would slide another 20-30%. (8)

It is possible that deep down inside, Greenspan agrees with the Bear viewpoint, but is concerned that if any market corrects too quickly, it could precipitate a crash, spook the other markets, and shock the economy into a downward spiral? Greenspan, and the Wall Street firms and banks that are closely intertwined with the Fed, would all prefer a "soft landing." An example of a "soft landing" market is one that declines at a steady angle, zigzagging between parallel top and bottom channel lines on technical charts. This is the kind of bear market the S&P has in fact been through in the last three years with the help of interventions. A soft landing market allows major banks and Wall Street insiders time to adjust their most vulnerable positions, tweak some profits out of up and down market swings, and pawn their riskiest "matured" positions off on Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Misinformed Public. (9)

THERE MAY BE AN EVEN DARKER SIDE TO THE DARK SIDE

snip>

A major rogue wave detonator that could bring the markets quickly crashing down involve unregulated derivatives. Derivatives now total an estimated $127 trillion, or roughly 13 times the size of the U.S. economy. A large portion of derivatives are unregulated and unlisted, and they are typically created and valued by computer models. Derivatives are essentially time sensitive "bets" designed to leverage reward and shift risk. Their creators assume "normal" market behavior in which people and institutions act rationally without excessive fear or greed and have the financial strength to settle their contracts under all conditions. Major banks and Wall Street firms promote derivatives because under normal conditions they are extremely profitable. America's largest banks, which hold perhaps a third of all derivatives, can use unregulated credit derivatives to get around conventional reserve and margin requirements to support ever expanding lending activities. Hence, the "derivatives" lobby has enormous power on Capitol Hill. (11)

snip>

To get a truer understanding of Greenspan's predicament, one must first appreciate his contradictions. Here is a man who frequently uses the term "soft landing" in his Congressional testimonies, yet he has lobbied to keep the derivatives market unregulated and beyond the scrutiny of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). In doing this, he has defended a financial system with escalating levels of risk that encourage the opposite of soft landings. Greenspan once wrote a pro-gold and pro-hard money paper in 1966 titled "Gold and Economic Freedom" while a member of Ayn Rand's libertarian, pro-laissez-faire inner circle, yet he has helped to suppress gold in favor of pumping out more fiat money currency and has frequently used heavy-handed central bank interventionist policies while Fed Chairman. He publicly decried "irrational exuberance" in market valuations in late 1996, yet he refused to raise margin rates to constrain speculators and has presided over one of the largest credit and monetary expansions and speculative stock market bubbles in history. (13)

snip>

A review of derivates casualties in the last decade may give us a better feeling for the growing level of risk permeating the financial system, and the credibility of financial industry leaders who reassure us that they have everything under control. (The loss numbers that follow are typically rough estimates). In 1993, mismanaged derivatives caused Wisconsin's State Investment Board to lose $95 million. They lost for Japanese company Showa Shell Sekiyu over $1 billion and cost German company Metallgesellschaft $1.3 billion. In 1994, suddenly rising bond interest rates lost $1.6 billion for the leveraged bond positions managed by Orange County Treasurer Robert L Citron and put Orange County, California into bankruptcy. 1994 was also a bad year for Proctor and Gamble ($157 million derivatives loss) and Air Products and Chemicals ($122 million loss) which also made leveraged bets on interest rates. The following hedge funds took hits (estimated losses in parentheses): Askin Capital Management ($420 million), Argonaut Capital Management ($110 million), and Vairocano Limited ( lost $700 million or 60% in six months, blowing a good six year track record). In 1994 PaineWebber spent $268 million to bail out a money market fund marketed as a safe and secure investment, and Bank of America and Piper Jaffray (now owned by US Bancorp) took similar actions. In 1995, a 28 year old trader named Nick Leeson lost $1.3 billion, wiping out Barings Bank, a 233 year old British institution. In 1995, Fenchurch Capital Management lost $1.3 billion or 50% in three months, blowing a six year 21% a year track record. In 1996, the trading losses hidden by Joseph Jett at Kidder Peabody were enough to cause GE to sell his company to PaineWebber. Kidder Peabody sued Jett for nearly $100 million in damages. Following the Asian and Russian debt crises of 1997 and 1998, the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management blew up ($3.6 billion bailout required) when normal intermarket relationships went haywire; at one point the fund had $3 billion in equity leveraged to $140 billion in debt and $1.25 trillion in derivatives, totally beyond what it disclosed to its capital sources. Three Nobel laureates were on its staff. It required a Fed-orchestrated bailout by 14 banks and Wall Street firms to avoid a financial system melt down. Continuing with the casualty list: Michael Smirlock's leveraged Shetland fund ($300 million loss) in 1998; got sued for hiding $71 million in losses by the SEC. Michael Berger's leveraged Manhattan Investments lost over $400 million in 1999. During a 13% dip in the Dow in 1997, Everest Capital lost $1.3 billion or 50% of its funds. Everest burned the Brown, Yale, and Emory university endowments. In the 1997-2000 period the casualty list included some top hedge fund celebrities: Victor Niederhoffer completely blew up his $130 million fund in three trading days in Oct 1997, Julian Robertson's Tiger Management suffered a combination of losses and withdrawals that dropped his fund from $22 billion to $6 billion by 2000; Robertson had made a 32% average annual return for 18 years, then suddenly dropped 43% in less than six months and decided to retire. Soros Fund Management suffered perhaps a $3 to $5 billion loss by May 2000 blamed in part on unusual Nasdaq volatility. In 2001 Enron, which had morphed from an energy company into a derivatives trading firm and de facto hedge fund, imploded and wiped out $70 billion in shareholder equity and tens of billions in debt. In Jan 2003, a Japanese hedge fund called Eifuku Master Fund, which was up 70% in 2002, lost over 98% of its $200 million capital in only seven trading days. (15)

more...


Dragon at the Back Door
by Jim Willie CB

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/093003.html

snip>

Phase #1 of the currency market correction process was totally ineffective. The last 18 months accomplished absolutely nothing in the way of remedy. No trade imbalance of substance exists between the USA and the European Union, yet this initial completed phase was marked by a 30% appreciation in the Euro versus the USDollar. The USA endures a truly monstrous trade gap with Asia, yet adjustments to all Asian currencies have been resisted. In fact, the word “monstrous” could be substituted with "colossal", "significant" or "spectacular" and in reality serve to minimize the situation. No effect whatsoever was realized on reducing the size of the US trade gap with Asia.

Phase #2 is when the real damage is done, when severely harmful effects are felt inside the US Economy, when the press & media are awakened from slumber, when the public outcry for government action is called for, when job loss accelerates, and when dim-witted (but politically favorable) official financial and executive decisions are made. In this more dangerous phase, watch for the USDollar and USTBonds to decline together, unlike in the initial phase. The dragon is at the back door, but few have noticed.

The primary characteristics of the damaging phase #2 will be many:

A) IMPORTED ASIAN PRODUCT PRICE INFLATION EFFECT

B) RISKS DUE TO ASIAN DEPENDENCE UPON CAPITAL AND MFG

C) ASIAN CENTRAL BANK RESERVE HEDGING RESPONSE

D) LAGGED FEDERAL RESERVE MONETARY EFFECT ON PRICE LEVELS

E) INCIPIENT TWO-SIDED PRICE INFLATION THREAT TO USTBONDS

F) LIKELY ERRORS WITHIN FED RESPONSE, DESPERATION SETS IN

G) MULTIPLICITY OF POSITIVE EFFECTS ON GOLD

My constant refrain has been and continues to be: the level of economic understanding, policy and counsel is so abysmal that a galloping recession (or worse) is the most probable scenario, accompanied by price inflation in certain sectors. This country does not admit its errors. It does not detect nor correct its errors. Instead, it compounds its errors by more serious errors. We have no understanding of money or inflation or currency. We regard money much the same as water in pipes to irrigate a field, rather than the output of a day’s work. Hence, our fields are flooded and we urge more water to be delivered. The costs and consequences of many years of ineptitude, speculation, fraud, and political sellouts are soon to demand correction by the powerful free markets, which are more powerful than any set of governments. Reconciliation is overdue.

snip>

In a most amazing field trip in mid-September, Treasury Secy Snow traveled to China for the expressed purpose of requesting that Chinese leaders raise the prices on their entire portfolio of exported products to the Untied States. Inept economists and workers alike harbor some deranged notion that a higher Yuan exchange rate will both reduce our bilateral trade gap and restore jobs. No such thing will occur. Instead, the trade gap will increase, even as imported products rise in price, signaling the arrival on price inflation. Over two decades of monetary inflation has been exported to Asia, which has paid for our federal deficits and trade gaps. The end result is that they now own significant portions of our entire debt structure. More importantly though, with the end of the USTBond bubble and the end of the Asian Central Bank defense of the highly overvalued USDollar, we have entered phase #2. We next import inflation. The rise of Asian imported product prices marks the beginning of the reversal of that monetary inflation export.

snip>

The financial zone is now subject to lost monetary control by the Federal Reserve, fully indicated, and very predictable, with encouraged speculation, and desperate unremitting money pumping. In time even his supporters will object to his policies. This Greenspasm knows only one response tactic, to print more money. He will respond to any USTBond threat by monetizing more purchases of the same, even as foreigners and Americans are selling. He will attempt to offset their large-scale selling. In time, I expect an all-out panic by Greenspasm and the entire Federal Reserve institution. Their power has been eroded. Their policies are fast becoming ineffective. In the future, I expect them to be widely regarded as toothless and powerless to stop the crisis. Everything they do now contributes to conditions which are due to develop into crisis, to intensify the pressure gradients, and to fan the flames of fires which will engulf the USDollar.

more...

[UpInArms]

82. here's an article about "hedge funds" and reinsurance

New role for hedge funds: reinsurance
Old-guard firms face challenge from cash-rich newcomers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFF391281%2D29D3%2D452A%2D9654%2D8BAC7D9C5FD7%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Under increasing pressure to extend a string of huge returns for their super-wealthy clients, several top hedge funds are making forays into what may seem an unlikely new business for high-flying investors: reinsurance.

And their entry into a market once dominated by a few old-guard insurance specialists has raised hackles among the industry's leading players. Established reinsurance companies fear that hedge funds, which are virtually swimming in cash, command an uncommon ability to drive down prices, in turn eroding their premiums.

In recent years, hedge funds have won over massive pools of new assets as wealthy people have grown enamored of investing with them. But while those huge assets have ballooned, managers face a steeper challenge seeking to extend their track records year after year as more money chases a finite number of investment ideas. See main story.

"Hedge funds are being increasingly drawn into the reinsurance business because they're searching for substantial returns," says Andy Barile, an independent reinsurance consultant in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. "They're flush with cash, and that money has to find investments -- or they may have to give it back to investors."

...more...

[Zynx]

2. Greenberg(AIG) won't testify

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, former chief executive of troubled insurance giant American International Group, won't answer questions at a meeting with regulators Tuesday, according to a statement issued by his legal team Monday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer are scheduled to interview Greenberg on Tuesday as part of their investigation into whether AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) used complex reinsurance transactions to manipulate its financial statements.

<snip>

Attorney David Boies of Boies, Schiller & Flexner said Greenberg hasn't had time to prepare for the April 12 testimony, because there are thousands of documents related to transactions being investigated that he hasn't been given access to, and because some of those deals took place as many as 20 years ago.

<snip>

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA3F048D0%2DF2FE%2D4EA1%2DB20F%2D6BE0A387FB4E%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[UpInArms]

77. Ex-AIG Boss Declines to Answer Questions

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=663084

Apr 12, 2005 — NEW YORK (Reuters) - The former head of American International Group Inc., Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, on Tuesday refused to answer questions from regulators looking into improper accounting by the insurance powerhouse, officials present at the meeting said.

The meeting, in New York, lasted about 45 minutes, said the officials, who declined to be named.

Greenberg's attorney David Boies had said on Monday in a statement that his client would not answer questions because he needed more time to prepare for the testimony with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer.

Investigators had denied requests to delay the testimony, Boies said, adding that the probe involves thousands of documents and relates to a "great number of transactions," some dating back as much as 20 years.

...more...

20 years!

[UpInArms]

88. California pension giants may sue to recoup AIG losses

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.6053122222-834084635&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The California Public Employees' Retirement System and the California State Teachers' Retirement System, two giant state pension funds, have lost almost $400 million because of accounting improprieties at insurer American International Group (AIG) and will likely sue the company, executives responsible and the firm's auditor PriceWaterhouseCoopers to recoup the money, according to state Treasurer Phil Angelides. As well as taking legal action, the two pension funds will push for reform at AIG that will allow shareholders to nominate independent directors to the insurer's board, Angelides said during a press conference. The pension funds will also keep pushing to make sure auditors' independence isn't compromised by doing other non-audit consulting work, Angelides added.

"no impact" :rofl:

[loudsue]

3. Great toon, Oz! Good mornin Marketeers!

:donut: Brew that coffee, and dunk those donuts! It's showtime! :hi:

:kick:

[RawMaterials]

15. Morning Ozy, UIA, 54 Loudsue and the rest of the Marketeers.

:hi: :donut:

should be an interesting day ahead.

[UpInArms]

5. Trade gap hits new record in Feb.($61.0 Billion)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7B0276B6%2D4290%2D49BF%2DBFA3%2D287EEA6B38CB%7D&siteid=mktw

Chinese textile imports up 62.4% in first two months of '05

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Continued U.S. consumer demand for imported goods and a further surge in textile imports from China boosted the trade deficit to $61.0 billion in February, a 4.3% jump from January and the largest deficit on record, the Commerce Department said.

The February trade gap was larger than economists had forecast. Economists expected the trade deficit to widen to $58.5 billion in February, according to a MarketWatch survey. See Economic Calendar.

The January trade deficit was also larger than initially estimated. The department revised the January trade deficit to $58.5 billion, compared with the previous estimate of $58.3 billion.

The widening trade deficit in February was fueled by a 1.6% rise in imports of goods and services, which totaled a record $161.5 billion in the second month of the year. Read full government release.

Exports were essentially flat, rising 0.1% at a record $100.5 billion.

Imports of goods alone rose 1.7% to $135.9 billion. Although imports of petroleum were the second largest on record, the rise in imports was not just oil. Imports of non-petroleum products were a record $117.4 billion in February.

...more...

[cthrumatrix]

7. oil going up and we are importing more...bad combo

[54anickel]

43. Trade Gap Soars To All-Time High

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/12/national/main687454.shtml

snip>

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the February imbalance was up 4.3 percent from a $58.5 billion trade gap in January as a small $50 million rise in U.S. exports of goods and services was swamped by a $2.58 billion increase in imports.

snip>

For February, imports of textiles and clothing from China rose by 9.8 percent even though America's overall trade gap with China actually narrowed to $13.9 billion, down by 9.2 percent from a January deficit of $15.3 billion. The improvement reflected an increase in U.S. exports to China and declines in other import categories outside of textiles.

For the first two months of this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $717.2 billion, :wow: a full $100 billion above the record imbalance of $617.1 billion set for all of 2004.

Trade deficits of this magnitude have raised worries among economists about America's ability to continue to attract the foreign financing needed to cover the shortfall between exports and imports. If foreigners decided to hold fewer dollar-denominated investments such as stocks and bonds, it could trigger steep declines in U.S. stock prices and a sharp increase in interest rates.

snip>

The Bush administration argues that the deficit primarily reflects the fact that the U.S. economy has been growing at a much faster pace than the economies of its major trading partners, pushing up imports while dampening demand for U.S. exports. Treasury Secretary John Snow was expected to use a Saturday meeting of finance officials from the Group of Seven major industrial countries to once again lobby for Europe and Japan to pursue more growth-oriented policies.

more...

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.33 Change +0.17 (+0.20%)

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=693&Itemid=39

Instant Insight: Trade Balance At Record High, But Deficit With China Shrinks!

The US Trade Balance widened to a new record high of $61 billion in February. Imports continued to rise by 1.6% while exports remain flat for the second consecutive month. US consumers and businesses paid more for oil, with crude oil imports rising 11.8%. The euro skyrocketed on the initial release but the details of the report were less discouraging which perfectly explains the near immediate dollar rebound. For the time being, the market may be more interested in immediate rewards of steadily rising US short term yields rather than the long term implications of a persistent trade deficit.

With oil prices beginning to retrace, future trade balances which have been particularly sensitive to oil could also fall in tandem. The key optimism from today's report is the surprisingly improvement in the trade balance with China - apparel imports only increased marginally despite the recent removal of the textile quotas. The trade deficit with China actually shrank by $1.4 billion after exploding the past two months. Year to date however, the trade deficit with China is still higher by 47.4%. It looks like the market wants to wait for Friday's TIC data before pounding the dollar based upon the proverbial deficits.

...very short article...

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=686&Itemid=39

Dollar Gearing Up For Countermove

EUR/USD - Euro continued to assault the dollar positions in the latest bout of the dollar bearishness, as the single currency bulls managed to push their way up to psychologically important 1.3000 level. After a brief scuffle with the dollar bulls, and failing hold the 1.3000 figure, euro longs fell back to their defensive positions.

In case the euro longs resume their advance they will encounter a minor resistance at 1.3007, a 20-day SMA, followed by an intermediate resistance at 1.3059, a 38.2 Fib of the 1.3481-1.2797 dollar swing. A major resistance can be seen at 1.3187, a 50.0 Fib of the Mar-Apr greenback rally, which currently defends dollar held territory. After the euro longs advanced on the dollar positions they tightened their defenses with minor support seen at 1.2957, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.3481-1.2797 dollar rally, with further support seen at 1.2902, a combination of the 5-day and 10-day SMA's. A major support at 1.2797, a Mar-Feb greenback swing low, continues to defend the 1.2730, a 2005 low and a gateway to the 1.2488, a Key 61.8 Fib of the 1.1760-1.3667 euro rally. Oscillators are mixed; with Stochastic remaining oversold on daily chart at 17.71 and overbought at 86.36 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI at 45.68 continues to slope upward toward the overbought level on the daily and is treading below the overbought level at 64.93 on the 4-hour chart. MACD made a bearish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and is treading above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

<snipping charts>

USD/JPY - Yen longs broke the consolidation range along with the uptrending channel and pushed the dollar longs back, recapturing some of the lost territory in the process. As the dollar bulls shifted their defenses, they will rely on a minor support at 106.84, a 20-day SMA, followed by an intermediate support at 106.20, a Mar 24-28 consolidation low. A major support is seen at 105.54, a Feb 23-Mar 4 consolidation range high. If the dollar bulls manage to mount a successful counter offensive they will encounter a minor resistance at 107.96, a 10-day SMA, with further defenses seen at 108.26, an intermediate support created by the 5-day SMA. A major resistance 108.87, an Apr 5-8 consolidation range high continues to defend the 109.14, an Oct 11 daily low, which protects the road to 111.48, a beginning of the Nov-Dec yen rally. Indicators remain mixed, with Stochastic extremely overbought on daily chart at 87.78 and is exceedingly oversold at 8.48 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI left the overbought territory on the daily at 62.28 and is approaching the oversold zone at 38.87 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is getting ready for the bearish crossover above the zero line on the daily and crossed below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

14. FX Anticipation Ahead of Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes

http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp?f=N20050412A.mgn

8:30 am US Trade Balance (exp -$63 bln, prev -$58.3 bln) 8:30 am Canada Merchandise Balance (exp C$4.5 bln, prev C$ 4.0 bln) 9:00 am Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (exp 2.50%, prev 2.50%) 2:00 pm Minutes of FOMC March 22 Meeting

The dollar is coming under further pressure as the morning’s release of the highly anticipated release of the US Trade Deficit report looms close, expected to show a new record figure of as high as $63 bln. Our forecast lies above the consensus forecast of $58-59 billion as we expect about a 10% rise in petroleum imports, which is likely to boost total imports by 3-4%. Any figure above $60 billion is likely to weigh on the dollar, albeit briefly, before traders pare those losses and position themselves ahead of a potentially dollar bullish FOMC minutes release at 2:00 pm NYT.

Yet, despite an expectedly record high deficit, we anticipate any dollar sell-off to be short-lived due to two reasons: 1) the subsequent 12% decline in oil prices from their $58 high tempers nervousness of an oil fuelled trade deficit; 2) dollar will be stabilized by cautiousness ahead of the FOMC minutes which are expected to convey detailed evidence of emerging hawkishness--which should overcome the negative dynamics from the dollar’s structural flaws. :rofl:

We expect the dollar to stage a considerable rally in the event that the deficit comes in at or less than $60 bln, because such a figure would be largely within expectations, thereby creating a sell on the rumor-buy-on-the fact-would dollar reaction. Traders are then likely to prolong these dollar gains ahead of the release of the minutes.

[RawMaterials]

17. Dollar Is Lower, Gold Up in Europe

LONDON (AP) -- The U.S. dollar fell Tuesday morning against other major currencies in European trading. Gold prices rose.

The euro was quoted at $1.2974, up from $1.2956 Monday.

Other dollar rates compared with late rates Monday included: 107.80 Japanese yen, down from 107.84; 1.1935 Swiss francs, down from 1.1949, and 1.2319 Canadian dollars, down from 1.2330.

The British pound was quoted at $1.8927, up from $1.8900.

Gold traded in London at $429.15 bid per troy ounce, up from $428.60 late Monday. In Zurich, the bid was $428.75, up from $428.03. Gold rose $1.00 to close at $429.15 in Hong Kong.

Silver traded in London at $7.24 bid per troy ounce, up from $7.23



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050412/dollar_gold.html?.v=1

[54anickel]

45. China allows online gold sales to boost demand

http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp%3B:425a31fe:f0709ccfe32211?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_ZA&storyID=8139393

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China has said private investors may buy and sell gold through the Internet, its latest move to boost demand for the precious metal, industry sources said on Monday.

From late March, individuals have been able to buy gold for investment online from the Bank of China and other selected banks which are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, they said.

Earlier this year, China cut the import tax on jewellery to 21.3 percent from 23.3 percent in 2004 to help encourage foreign investors to set up jewellery factories as well as to boost consumption in one of the world's largest buyers.

"Investors in China can now buy and sell gold through Internet banking with certain banks which provide the service," said Albert Cheng, managing director Far East for the industry-backed World Gold Council.

more...

[54anickel]

18. Dollar seen boosted by minutes, shrugging Record Deficit

http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

This week the dollar shall sustain a clash between those who think the currency should rally because of higher interest rates and those expecting renewed declines due to a growing trade deficit.

We expect Tuesday’s release of the US January trade deficit to hit a new record high of $63 billion from $58.3 billion in January due to faster growth in imports of about 3.5% and a 1% rise in exports.

snip>

The dollar has proven to be largely sensitive to each and every verbal signal from the Fed allowing for the possibility of further rate hikes beyond June. We have seen most recently on Thursday evening when following remarks from Fed. St Louis Fed Chief William Poole indicating the need to be “more vigorous” in raising interest rates when inflation pressures begin building up in labor costs or the risk of them appearing to do so.

We expect the dollar to stage a modest retreat later in the week ahead of Friday’ February TICS report. We anticipate a slowdown in net capital flows to $58-60 billion from January’s $90 billion. But the impact of the Fed Minutes should give the upper hand to the dollar.

We see the dollar’s corrective rally to have been largely played out. We expect the currency to test its 200-day moving average against the euro ($1.2779) pound ($1.86) and dollar index (85.35), with a 75-80% chance of further strengthening as seen below.

more...

[RawMaterials]

24. Trade gap: Made in the USA -- worried about trade gap just get rid of it.

aprill 11 3pm

A study by the McKinsey Global Institute, a think tank arm of the business consultant firm McKinsey & Co., finds that about one-third of the nation's current account deficit would disappear if we eliminate the trade with the foreign operations of U.S. companies, according to the group. The current account deficit is a broad measure of trade and capital flows between nations.

"A large and growing share of the deficit simply reflects the international reach -- and success -- of the strongest US companies," said the recently published study. "An automaker importing cars assembled in Mexico, for example, or a bank using call centers in India ...may add to the nation's trade imbalance, but they also create significant value for U.S. customers, companies and shareholders."

The trade deficit will get new attention Tuesday when the Commerce Department releases its monthly trade report. Economists surveyed by both Briefing.com and Reuters have a consensus forecast for a $59 billion trade gap for February, up from $58.3 billion in January. But one third of the 21 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the gap to top the $59.4 billion figure from November, the current record.

The McKinsey study argues that the trade gap is overstated, and that the government should change the way it measures trade, taking an ownership-based view of trade and categorizing companies by where they are owned rather than by where goods are produced.

"Today's debate over the U.S. current-account deficit misses the mark," said the study. "Focusing on (U.S. companies' foreign operations') activities is unhelpful and distracts attention from fiscal irresponsibility in Washington—which poses a far bigger threat to the future economic health of the United States."





http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/11/news/economy/trade_walkup/index.htm

:rofl: That should help the dollar out. :rofl:

[UpInArms]

92. Dollar weaker after FOMC, trade gap news

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.6003583333-834084394&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar initially weakened slightly against the euro and yen Tuesday afternoon, as investors sifted though the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The minutes indicated that some meeting participants expect inflation to ease, "and did not provide the ammunition the dollar bulls were looking for to build a case for a stronger rates policy," in the view of Brian Dolan, head of currency reserach at Gain Capital. But, others said many members of the Federal Open Market Committee indicated they had become less certain about their prior benign inflation outlook. Separately, the Treasury Department reported that the federal government spent $71.2 billion more in March than it collected. In recent trades the euro stood at $1.2894, up from $1.2885 before the news. The dollar traded at 108.07 yen, against 108.30 yen.

[UpInArms]

9. Peruvians Assured on Dollar Bill Usage

http://www.forbes.com/business/services/feeds/ap/2005/04/11/ap1937817.html

Government officials assured Peruvians on Monday they could use U.S. dollar bills in daily transactions following the discovery of a particular series of counterfeit US$100 notes and rumors that several other series might also be fakes.

The U.S. dollar is accepted as a secondary legal tender in Peru, alongside the official currency, the Nuevo Sol.

Last week, Peruvian banks stopped accepting all US$100 bills carrying a 2001 series date and a CB-B2 serial code after the U.S. officials reported that a portion of the bills turned over by Peru to the U.S. Federal Reserve turned out to be high quality counterfeits, possibly produced in Pakistan.

<snip>

Several banks allegedly continued to distribute the questionable bills through ATMs while tellers turned away customers who tried to use US$100 notes to make deposits or pay bills.

Authorities ordered Peruvian banks and businesses to accept U.S. dollar bills, with standing orders to confiscate counterfeits

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Janus, Franklin assets slip in March

Expected $2.2 billion redemption to impact Janus in April

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B118CCF72%2D0CD9%2D4098%2D8335%2DC5DBA3BD3378%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Janus Capital Group Inc. said Monday that assets under management declined slightly in March, but the mutual fund giant reported that a previously expected $2.2 billion redemption will occur in April.

Denver-based Janus (JNS: news, chart, profile) said assets under management fell 1.6% to $132.2 billion as of March 31 from $134.4 billion a month earlier, reflecting generally weak market conditions.

Separately, San Mateo, Calif.-based rival Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN: news, chart, profile) , parent of the Franklin and Templeton fund families, on Monday reported a modest downturn in managed assets.

<snip>

While the $600 million in March outflows from the firm's stock and bond funds was unchanged from February, Janus said that an expected $2.2 billion redemption by ING will happen this month.

The performance of Janus funds remained healthy in March despite the unfavorable market climate, the company said. About two-thirds of the group finished in the top half of their categories on a 12-month period, Janus indicated, based on data from fund-tracker Lipper. In addition, Janus said that 83% of its growth stock and core equity funds ranked in Lipper's top 25% on a one- year basis.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Reidy stepping down from two Janus funds May 1

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.3903793056-834073691&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Karen Reidy said in a letter to shareholders Tuesday that she has decided to relinquish her role as portfolio manager of Janus Balanced Fund (JABAX) and Janus Core Equity Fund (JAEIX) effective May 1. Janus said Marc Pinto, who has 20 years of investment experience, and Gibson Smith, head of the firm's fixed-income department, have been named co-portfolio managers of Balanced Fund. Minyoung Sohn, a seven-year Janus veteran, has been named portfolio manager of Core Equity. Reidy is exploring an opportunity to work "in a strategic capacity" for Janus Chief Executive Officer Steve Scheid.

[UpInArms]

11. Ameritrade quarterly earnings fall - profit off 12%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEEA20678%2DDA44%2D498C%2D86BF%2DAE62FB6B5AA8%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Ameritrade Holding Corp. on Tuesday reported a 12% drop in net income amid a slowdown in trader activity, but the broker beat Wall Street's profit target by a penny per share.

Ameritrade (AMTD: news, chart, profile) said it earned $71 million, or 17 cents per share, down from $80.96 million, or 19 cents per share, last year.

A survey of analysts by Thomson First Call forecast earnings of 16 cents per share for the Omaha, Neb. firm.

"Higher commission per trade (pricing improvement), better than expected net interest revenues and continued expense control drove the EPS upside," CIBC analysts said in an early research report on the results Tuesday.

Revenue fell to $233 million from $247 million.

Commissions and clearing fees fell 17% as retail investor activity fell weaker during a quarter that was shorter than last year. Daily average revenue trades (DARTs) fell 2% from the previous quarter, to 167,209.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Trade Surplus in China Hit $5.7 Billion in March

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/12/business/worldbusiness/12yuan.html

China's trade surplus widened in March as manufacturers shipped more clothes, electronics and machinery to the United States and Europe.

The surplus reached $5.7 billion, up from $4.4 billion in February and rebounding from a $630 million deficit in March 2004. Exports rose 33 percent from a year earlier, to $60.9 billion, after gaining 37 percent in the first two months of the year, the official Xinhua news agency said yesterday.

"China's exports are benefiting from a competitive currency, outsourcing by foreign companies and the dismantling of global quotas on textiles," said Rob Subbaraman, senior Asia economist at Lehman Brothers in Tokyo.

China's imports increased 19 percent, to $55.1 billion in March, after rising 8.3 percent in the first two months of the year. Growth has slowed from 37 percent last year amid a government clampdown on industrial expansion.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

13. Global: The Danger Zone of Global Rebalancing ( Roach)

Trade tensions are spilling over into the political arena. That’s the case in Washington and it could well be the case in Europe if Asia continues to resist on the currency front. All along, the biggest risk of global rebalancing is that the onus of adjustment could shift from economic and financial forces to the politics of trade frictions and protectionism. As global imbalances mount, those risks are now rising -- pushing the world into the danger zone of global rebalancing.

The globalization of capital and trade flows is a double-edged sword. In an ideal world, the benefits of cross-border integration are the classic “win-win” of a positive-sum game for the global economy. The diffusion of production and technologies into an increasingly borderless world is a powerful spark for economic development. As high-cost industrial countries establish beachheads in low-cost developing countries, employment and income generation are boosted in emerging economies -- ultimately providing support for a new class of global consumers that offers the potential of new export markets for rich countries. At the same time, industrial countries benefit from newfound efficiencies in the global supply chain; as inflationary pressures are reduced, purchasing power and consumption in the developed world draw a new source of support that then provides further impetus to the globalized production platforms of the developing world.

The ideal world also benefits from the rapidly expanding volume of global capital flows. Over the 1990 to 2003 period, financial assets in the developed world have essentially tripled as a share of GDP, according to IMF research. Such a dramatic expansion of global capital flows serves the highly useful purpose of distributing financial assets and their associated risks to a much broader universe of investors -- thereby providing a more effective cushion for those inevitable financial shocks. In this ideal world, the globalization of trade and capital flows fits like a glove -- giving rise to the ultimate virtuous circle. Who could ask for more?

Unfortunately, that ideal world does not exist. Instead, today’s increasingly integrated global economy is beset by record imbalances. The disparity between current-account deficits (mainly the United States) and surpluses (mainly Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe) is now approaching a record 4% of world GDP. The global economy is increasingly supported by a unipolar consumption dynamic -- riding on the back of saving-short, wage-constrained, and overly-indebted American consumer. Meanwhile, job growth and unemployment remain under extraordinary pressure in the rich, developed world.

snip..

Europe could well be next to join the protectionist queue. In large part, that’s because it has already borne the brunt of the dollar depreciation that is an outgrowth of America’s gaping current account deficit. Over the past three years, the broad trade-weighted euro has risen over 22% in real terms, taking on the lion’s share of the world’s adjustment to a 15% real drop in the broad trade-weighted dollar. By contrast, Asia hasn’t budged. The broad trade-weighted yen has been essentially unchanged over this same period, and the dollar-pegged Chinese renminbi has declined about 10% since early 2002. To the extent that another downleg in the dollar is coming -- and I very much believe that will be the case in the context of the US current-account adjustment -- the onus of burden sharing needs to shift to Asia. If Asia does not accede, then the math of the dollar’s next move down will put excruciatingly further pressure on Europe -- easily capable of pushing the euro well above 1.50 versus the dollar

snip..

the IMF stresses the increased vulnerability of a system that is so heavily dependent on favorable investor sentiment toward dollar-denominated assets. Should that sentiment be shaken by any reason -- either a loss in confidence by private portfolio investors or a shift in foreign exchange reserve management practices by foreign central banks -- then all bets would be off. In light of protectionist rumblings in Washington, I worry more about the latter possibility -- a retaliatory reduction of overweight dollar positions by Asian authorities. As the political pendulum swings from trade liberalization toward trade frictions and protectionism, the possibility of a threat to sentiment needs to be taken seriously.

Two extreme scenarios bracket the wide range of global rebalancing alternatives -- the benign outcome, where the adjustments are gently spread over a long period of time, and the disruptive outcome, where the adjustments are concentrated in a relatively short period of time. Everyone favors the benign outcome. Financial markets are priced for that possibility and, not surprisingly, global policy makers express confidence in the painless fix. I fear this confidence is at odds with mounting political risks. By upping the ante on trade frictions and protectionism, politicians are shifting the odds into the danger zone of global rebalancing and the dollar crisis that might trigger. It wouldn’t be the first time a rush to globalization sowed the seeds of its own demise.


http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050411-mon.html#anchor0

[54anickel]

38. EU calls for orderly appreciation of Asian currencies

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=3&u=/afp/20050412/bs_afp/eueurozoneasiaeconomyg7forex_050412101556

LUXEMBOURG (AFP) - EU finance ministers believe an orderly appreciation of Asian currencies is "absolutely necessary", said Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, whose country currently holds the EU's presidency.

Juncker said he would voice European concerns about exchange rates at a weekend meeting in Washington of finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) most industrialised countries.

Speaking at a press conference after meeting Monday with eurozone finance ministers, he said they had agreed that he would "repeat verbatim" at the Washington gathering a message he gave in February in London at the last G7 summit.

"In other words excessive volatility and concern about exchange rates because the current position remains contrary to the objective of robust economic growth," he said.

"We also repeated that exchange rates will not cause undesirable economic imbalances. All important economies would be expected to redress global economic imbalances ... so that if appreciation has to take place, it will be orderly," he said.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Word from the World Bank

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/apr082005.html

According to the World Bank, the global economic recovery has peaked. The bank sees the best-case scenario as a mild slowdown in global economic growth over the next few years, yet warned that a new global recession is a possibility.

The bank specifically suggested that the US shrink its budget deficit, as it saw the US's need to borrow from foreign entities to finance its trade deficit as a major risk factor for the global outlook.

snip>

Foreign reserve banks, particularly those of China and Japan, have been hoarding dollars (instead of selling them into the foreign exchange markets) to prevent the renminbi and the yen from appreciating against the dollar. These surplus dollars were invested in US Treasury debt, keeping trade dollars off the market and financing the US deficits.

But now there is growing pressure on China and Japan to let their currencies appreciate against the dollar. Once they allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar we will not only see the dollar weaken on foreign currency markets, we will also see interest rates in the US rise because less trade dollars will be invested in US Treasuries. If this seems confusing, read the commentary I sent out on February 10, 2005 on my website (www.paulvaneeden.com). It is titled: "Dollar weakness and higher interest rates: how it works."

I often hear people comment that China, Japan, and other countries will not reduce their dollar holdings or their purchases of US Treasuries because there are no other currencies that can compete with the dollar. That is not the case.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. Today's Reports:

Apr 12	8:30 AM	Trade Balance	Feb	-	-$59.4B	-$59.0B	-$58.3B	-	
Apr 12	2:00 PM	FOMC Minutes	Mar 22	-	-	-	-	-	
Apr 12	2:00 PM	Treasury Budget	Mar	-	-$68.0B	-$69.8B	-$72.9B	-

[UpInArms]

79. FOMC minutes

FOMC minutes: Members uncertain about inflation outlook

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.5834956019-834083682&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee said they had become less certain about their benign inflation outlook at their meeting on March 22, according to a summary of the meeting released Tuesday. The economy looked stronger than it had at the start of the year and economic data showed that inflation could be intensifying. Some members of the FOMC pressed the case for ending the FOMC's pledge that the pace of future rate hikes could occur at a "measured pace." These members saw higher odds that the pace of rate hikes would accelerate. But the majority decided to keep the measured pace. They argued that the wording did not preclude a faster pace of rate hikes or a pause and noted that long-term yields had risen despite the measured language.

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: FED STAFF FORECAST SEES CORE INFLATION CONTAINED

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: 'MEASURED' HAD NOT STOPPED LONG TERM RATE RISE

2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH OUTLAYS $220B VS. $205.3B YR AGO

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: 'MEASURED' DOESN'T PRECLUDE FASTER PACE OR PAUSE

2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH RECEIPTS $148.7B VS. $132.4B YR AGO

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: SOME INTENSIFY CALL TO REMOVE 'MEASURED' WORDING

2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. 2005 BUDGET DEFICIT $294.6B YEAR-TO-DATE

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: SOME SAW HIGHER ODDS OF FASTER PACE OF RATE HIKES

2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH BUDGET GAP EXCEEDS $68B EXPECTED

2:00pm 04/12/05 U.S. MARCH BUDGET DEFICIT $71.2B VS. $72.9B YR AGO

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC: MANY MEMBERS SAW INFLATION RISKS TILTED TO UPSIDE

2:00pm 04/12/05 FOMC MINUTES: MEMBERS UNCERTAIN ABOUT INFLATION OUTLOOK

[UpInArms]

80. U.S. March budget gap wider than expected at $71.2B

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B24B46710-6E69-4531-8C62-7C10B0392610%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)-- The U.S. government spent $71.2 billion more in March than it collected, The Treasury Department said Tuesday. Earlier, the Congressional Budget Office had estimated the budget deficit at $68 billion. Receipts were up about 12% in March from the previous March, while outlays rose about 7%. Halfway through fiscal 2005, the government deficit totaled $294.7 billion, down from $301.4 billion this time a year ago. Year-to-date, individual income taxes are up 8.5% and corporate income taxes are up 48%. (Corrects typographical error in budget numbers)

[UpInArms]

103. filling in the Report blanks:

Apr 12 8:30 AM Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$59.4B -$59.0B -$58.5 -$58.3B
Apr 12 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Mar 22 - - - - -
Apr 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Mar -$71.2B -$68.0B -$69.8B -$72.7B -$72.9B

and just a few mumbled words back on March 22 (what the markets usually considered "dated") has bounced any sign of sanity right out the door :eyes:

[UpInArms]

19. Donation is protest of layoffs by banks

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/11371523.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

John Moore wants Charlotte's big banks to pay executives less, pay employees more and stop cutting jobs. He's putting up $100,000 to make the point.

In a largely symbolic act of protest, Moore and his wife, Patricia, plan to give $50,000 each to charities in Boston and Birmingham, largely in shares of Wachovia Corp. and Bank of America Corp. stock, to help workers in those cities let go by the Charlotte-based companies.

Both companies have failed to share their growing prosperity with their employees, he said. Instead they keep cutting jobs to increase profits for shareholders, he said.

"Shareholders are only entitled to a fair return," said Moore, who owns stock worth more than $20 million in the two banks. "We have benefited from the fruits of the labor of these people who have been terminated," and they have not, he said.

Spokespersons for both companies said Moore's critique was misplaced. They said employees and former employees were fairly compensated, at least as well as at other banks, and often better, and that executive compensation was fair, too.

...more...

[54anickel]

51. PUKE! Executive compensation was fair, too! Tell me this mentality

that seems rampant in our society today is not that of the old "Robber Baron" days!

[UpInArms]

53. Special Report: Executive Pay 2004

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2004-ceo-pay-total-chart.htm

How 225 of the USA's largest companies compensate their chief executives. USA TODAY's compensation report is based on data from Aon Consulting's eComp Data Services: www.ecomponline.com, for the 225 largest companies by revenue that filed annual proxies through March 25. Click on the top of each column to sort by category, except CEO.
Company (Ticker)
CEO
Salary
Bonus1
Potential
options value2
TOTAL PAY3
United Technologies (UTX) George David
$1,200,000
$3,500,000
$9,717,012
$98,038,622
Capital One Financial (COF) Richard D. Fairbank
$0
$0
$28,577,467
$85,062,076
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Ray R. Irani
$1,300,000
$3,380,000
$11,386,529
$77,787,694
Genentech
(DNA) Arthur D. Levinson
$894,042
$1,310,000
$31,202,127
$74,562,776
Wells Fargo
(WFC) Richard M. Kovacevich
$995,000
$7,500,000
$22,246,719
$73,615,534
KB Home
(KBH) Bruce Karatz
$1,000,000
$5,000,000
$11,396,646
$61,284,832
Oracle
(ORCL) Lawrence J. Ellison
$675,000
$3,179,000
$7,786,236
$53,590,276
Qualcomm
(QCOM) Irwin Mark Jacobs
$1,062,282
$1,701,500
$8,636,484
$52,759,062
Harley Davidson (HDI) Jeffrey L. Bleustein
$875,034
$3,531,310
$4,810,442
$51,525,478
Lehman Bros. (LEH) R S. Fuld Jr.
$750,000
$10,250,000
$13,868,632
$49,109,703
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) W. James Farrell
$1,186,308
$2,288,000
$14,780,758
$47,915,544

...more...

[54anickel]

67. Hmmm, much more interesting to read the chart from the bottom up. n/t

[UpInArms]

20. Pepsi Bottling profit falls 22%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B59A465F8%2D6994%2D4CFB%2DA1E4%2DD2F9891D65FD%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. said Tuesday first-quarter profit fell 22%, hurt by flat volume and higher raw material costs, but earnings managed to exceed its own and Wall Street's view by a significant margin.

Somers, N.Y.-based Pepsi Bottling (PBG: news, chart, profile) , the largest producer and distributor of Pepsi-Cola drinks, recorded net income of $39 million, or 15 cents a share, for the period ended March 19. That compares with earnings of $50 million, or 19 cents a share, in the same quarter a year earlier.

In late February the company forecast earnings at 11 to 13 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings, on average, of 12 cents a share.

Revenue increased 3.9% to $2.15 billion from $2.07 billion a year ago, which was also ahead of analysts' average forecasts.

Global physical case volume was flat year-over-year on a constant territory basis, as the company went up against strong comparisons in the prior-year period, Pepsi Bottling said.

In the U.S., volume fell 1%, but net revenue per case advanced 4%, helped by price increases and a greater proportion of higher margin beverages in the sales mix.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Alliance Capital sees Q1 earns below Wall St. view

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.3881881944-834073607&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Alliance Capital Management (AC) said Tuesday that it expects first-quarter results to come in below Wall Street's current consensus estimate for a profit of 66 cents per holding unit due to weak investment advisory fees, mark-to-market losses on investments related to employee compensation plans and substanially higher than expected legal fees. The company added that its assets declined $11 billion in March to $534 billion. The stock closed Monday at $46.72, down 1.3 percent.

[UpInArms]

85. Alliance Capital won't meet estimates

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1D3F01FE%2D7D72%2D4A89%2D8014%2D7339193BA001%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Alliance Capital Management Holding tumbled as much as 9% Tuesday after the asset manager said first-quarter earnings are expected to miss Wall Street's forecasts and that its assets under management fell in March.

New York-based Alliance (AC: news, chart, profile) is the third major mutual-fund firm this week to report a drop in assets under management, a key measure of profitability. Alliance cited lower advisory fees, losses on investments related to employee compensation plans and higher legal fees as reasons for the shortfall.

Seven analysts polled by Thomson First Call forecast consensus earnings of 68 cents a share, with estimates ranging from 64 cents to 72 cents.

Alliance estimated that assets under management fell $11 billion as of March 31 to $534 billion. Excluding money market funds, Alliance said assets decreased in March by about $9 billion, or 1.7%, to $507 billion. Market declines were offset in part by cash inflows from new and existing clients, the company said in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. 9:32 EST markets are open and pre-opening blather

Dow 10,426.17 -22.39 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,987.33 -4.79 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,178.54 -2.67 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.458 +0.13 (+0.29%)

NYSE Volume 22,109,000
Nasdaq Volume 38,540,000

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Still shaping up to be a lower open for the cash market, as investors find little in the way of upbeat news following the larger than expected trade deficit figure... Meanwhile, Black & Decker (BDK) has raised Q1 EPS well above expectations but BMC Software (BMC) has guided Q4 (Mar) EPS and revenues below consensus estimates, merely adding to the uncertainty ahead of more economic data and more influential earnings reports out this week

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. The Feb. Trade Deficit has widened to $61.0 bln, above expectations of $59.0 bln and surpassing November's record $59.4 bln figure... As a result, futures trade pulls back a bit, still suggesting a slightly lower open for the indices

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open for the cash market as investors digest earnings reports and rebounding oil prices ahead of economic data... Last night, Genentech (DNA) beat forecasts by $0.04, but Avastin sales came in less than expected, while this morning, Abbott Labs (ABT) has matched Q1 consensus estimates and issued in-line Q2 and FY05 guidance...

[UpInArms]

25. 9:48 EST numbers and updated blather

Dow 10,414.12 -34.44 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,978.54 -13.58 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,175.93 -5.28 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.460 +0.15 (+0.34%)

NYSE Volume 127,263,000
Nasdaq Volume 160,757,000

9:40AM: Stocks open to the downside amid reports that the trade deficit grew to record levels... Earlier, the Commerce Dept. showed that the Feb. trade deficit widened to a record $61.0 billion, up from last month's revised $58.5 bln figure and above forecasts of $59.0 bln, as imports rose 1.6% against two months of flat export growth... In response, the dollar has strengthened against major currencies, with traders focused on the fact that the trade gap with China - which accounts for about 25% of the entire deficit - fell to $13.9 bln (from $15.3 bln last month)...

Treasurys, however, have stumbled slightly following the data, as the 10-year note (-7/32) now yields 4.45%, but traders remain more focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes, which carry much greater importance...

[UpInArms]

27. SEC begins formal investigation of Mama.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.4085184606-834074589&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Mama.com (MAMA) said Tuesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission has converted its informal investigation of the company into a formal investigation. The company said that the SEC may be investigating trading activity in Mama.com's stock, its internal control policies and its financial reporting methods.

[54anickel]

41. NYSE Specialists Indicted for Fraud, Improper Trading

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=attrxLTnIS5g&refer=us

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Fifteen current and former New York Stock Exchange specialists, the traders responsible for keeping an orderly market on the world's biggest stock exchange, were indicted on criminal charges of fraudulent and improper trading.

The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, David Kelley, will unseal the indictments at 10:30 a.m., he said in a statement today. If convicted, the specialists face a maximum of 20 years in jail on each count of securities fraud and fines of $1 million to $5 million.

The charges stem from a two-year probe of specialists, who match orders to buy and sell shares on the floor of the exchange and trade for their own account. The NYSE's seven specialist firms last year agreed to pay $247 million to settle allegations that they profited on trades at the expense of their customers.

The firms are LaBranche & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Spear Leeds & Kellogg LP, Van Der Moolen Holding NV, Bear Wagner Specialists, Banc of America Specialist, SIG Specialists Inc. and Performance Specialist Group. The NYSE first said in April 2003 that it was investigating them to determine whether they illegally traded stocks ahead of their clients.

more...

[UpInArms]

46. did you see the 11:00 EST blather?

11:00AM: Sellers show some resolve as news of indictments worsens overall nervousness... Within the last half hour, US attorneys have held a news conference stating that 15 current and former NYSE specialists have been charged with fraudulent and improper trading... While the criminal probe, which initially grew out of a civil case against the seven specialist firms, has been widely known amongst the investment community, the negativity surrounding the details of such an issue on a day with little in the way of any positive news, has arguably added to market uncertainty...NYSE Adv/Dec 801/2158, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 733/1953

only known "within the investment community" makes it freakin' okie dokie??

Oh no! Now the world knows what crooks there are!

:argh:

[54anickel]

48. Thanks to the MSM cheerleaders, this has been going on for 2 freakin'

years, with barely a mention.

[UpInArms]

50. Feds Indict 15 NYSE Traders for Fraud (loud and clear) CROOKS!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8157634

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors indicted 15 former and current New York Stock Exchange floor traders on securities fraud charges, accusing them of trading on behalf of their firms at the expense of clients.

<snip>

Exchange specialists, or floor traders, buy and sell certain issues on the NYSE floor and are supposed to step into the market to dampen volatility and add liquidity.

The U.S. Attorney's Office in a statement said the 15 were charged with "violating federal securities laws through patterns of fraudulent and improper trading over approximately four years."

If convicted, the defendants could face jail terms of 10 to 20 years and fines of $1 million to $5 million, or twice the gross gain or loss resulting from the improper trades, the U.S. Attorney's Office said.

The SEC accused 20 former NYSE specialists of carrying out fraudulent and other improper trading activities between 1999 and mid-2003.

"These individuals violated the public trust by abusing the privileged position they had as specialists on the New York Stock Exchange," Stephen M. Cutler, director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement, said in a statement. "We have zero tolerance for specialists who trade for their firm's proprietary account when they should be trading for the accounts of their customers."

...more...

Do the citizens of this United States of America want these criminals to steal their retirement funds?

George Bush does :argh:

[54anickel]

58. "...violated the public trust by abusing the privileged position..."

Yeah, so welcome to Bushdom. What else is new?

WAKE UP AMERICA! Sheesh, the Idiot Son of an Asshole with the worst poll numbers ON RECORD!!! Approval rating of, what 45%? And I'd be willing to bet that number has been inflated and fudged with just like every other number coming out regarding this mal-administration.

[54anickel]

64. 2 years of deafening silence followed by screaming from the roof tops

on the exact same day as the LARGEST DEFICIT ON RECORD is announced.

Heh, no wonder the markets are in that state of immobilization. What to do, what to do?

[54anickel]

66. But thank God Martha's not getting any breaks in her sentence!

:sarcasm:

[KoKo]

69. AND...where are the names of these criminals. Martha was all over

but no names here. Now, Martha was already a big name, but should we at least see who these people are who have defrauded millions of investors by playing their own games? Even if it's "Joe Smith" that I wouldn't know at least some people would know them and they would be shamed in their communities. There IS so little shame left when scandal after scandal is reported and it's a one day blurb and then gone out of the public's memory as they are urged to stay on the bandwagon and buy, buy ,buy.

I had to rant. Reading today just has me fuming..

[UpInArms]

70. Hi KoKo!

Great to see you here at the SMW :hi:

[KoKo]

72. Hi to you all here, too.

:hi:

:toast: for all this continued reporting on the "Financial Criminals." I've been spending more time with the "Political Criminals"
lately. Have to shift back and forth because dealing with both at the same time is too much! :D

[54anickel]

73. Hey KoKo01! Good to see you again. I was hoping that either the

mention of Martha Stewart or Mama.com in light of all the scandals might bring you about today.

Hope all is well with you and yours. :hi:

[UpInArms]

76. Justice Department, SEC file charges against 20 NYSE specialists for impro

Justice Department, SEC file charges against 20 NYSE specialists for improper trading

still no names

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/050412/b041246.html

NEW YORK (AP) - Fifteen specialists who managed trades on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange were formally charged with fraudulent and improper trading practices by the Justice Department on Tuesday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil charges against 20 specialists and the NYSE as well. Federal officials said that between 1999 and mid-2003, specialists at five firms put their firms' orders ahead of customers' orders, causing those customers to get inferior prices.

The SEC also charged the NYSE with failing to enforce its own rules, charges that the NYSE has already settled. The NYSE will be censured and must spend $20 million US on regulatory audits every two years through 2011.

The criminal probe of the NYSE traders by federal prosecutors grew out of a civil case against specialist firms that employ the traders.

Specialists run the open-outcry auctions on the floor of the NYSE and keep trading orderly. They match buy and sell orders for customers of the stocks they oversee and use their firm's money to buy shares when nobody else wants to buy and to sell shares from their own inventory when nobody else wants to sell.

...more without naming a soul...

[UpInArms]

78. more info

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/12/business/12cnd-nyse.html

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

excerpt:

The 15 defendants in the criminal case, who worked for five leading specialist firms at the exchange, had a duty to investors "to execute their trades fairly and to put the investors' interests above their own," the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, David N. Kelley, said at a news conference today.

<snip>

The traders traded ahead, by buying or selling stock for their firms' accounts, at prices that would be better than the public would get, Mr. Kelley said. He added that they also engaged in what is termed inter-positioning, in which the specialists buy the stock at one price and then turn around and sell it at a profit to another client, instead of executing a direct sale between interested parties, as required by exchange and federal securities rules. "The harm to investors by each of these specialists trading ahead ranged from some $400,000 to $5 million, for a total of nearly $20 million," Mr. Kelley said.

"The defendants functioned at the heart of the New York Stock Exchange," he said.

<snip>

For almost four years, he said, the exchange failed to police the specialists, who he said "showed a disregard for their legal duty that was both profound and, at times, profane."

<snip>

Four of the defendants worked for Fleet Specialists Inc., now known as Banc of America Specialists; two worked for Bear Wagner Specialists; one worked for LaBranche & Company; another was employed by Spear Leeds & Kellogg Specialists.

Seven others worked for Van der Moolen Specialists USA.

...more...

[UpInArms]

112. naming names

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a9og1uee97Mc&refer=us

NYSE Specialists Indicted for Fraud, Improper Trading (Update7)

excerpt:

As a specialist with Fleet Specialist Inc., David Finnerty, 38, handled NYSE trading of General Electric Co. shares.

``Finnerty bought or sold stock for Fleet's dealer account at the most advantageous price available, then, after proprietary trades, executed the agency orders with which he was entrusted at a less advantageous price than he received for the dealer account,'' the indictment against him alleged.

<snip>

Seven of the 15 specialists charged worked at Van der Moolen. Five, Joseph Bongiorno, 50; Michael Hayward, 51; Michael Stern, 54, Richard Volpe, 45; and Robert Scavone, 45, had supervisory roles at the exchange. Bongiorno was among the 20 senior NYSE officials known as floor governors.

<snip>

The remaining two former Van der Moolen specialists charged are Patrick McGagh, 39, and Gerard Hayes, 44. Together, the seven conspired to break securities laws and their actions cost customers at least $5.9 million, according to the indictments.

In addition to Finnerty, Fleet employed three of the indicted specialists: Thomas Murphy Jr., 41; Scott Hunt, 36; and Donald Foley, 44. The remaining four specialists charged are Robert Johnson, 40, of Spear Leeds; Kevin Fee, 37, and Frank Delaney, 42, of Bear Wager; and Freddy DeBoer, 43 of LaBranche.

...more...

[UpInArms]

113. 2 of these crooks were CEOs of Spear Leeds

from the link above:

The SEC's suit names the same 15 specialists, as well as five more not criminally charged. The five include Todd Christie, 40, and Robert Luckow, 57, both former CEOs of Spear Leeds, the specialist firm that Goldman acquired for more than $6.1 billion in 2000.

[UpInArms]

28. Delta Air downgrade sinks shares

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.4071105324-834074553&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) fell 6.1% to $3.70 in early trading Tuesday after Fulcrum Global Partners downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and lowered the 12-month price target to $4 from $13. Reflecting the sector's morning weakness, the Amex Airline Index ($XAL) fell 1.1%.

[54anickel]

29. House to take up tougher bankruptcy bill

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1113249477-e04a0f08-41587

WASHINGTON (AFX) - It took nearly a decade, but credit card companies and other lenders are set to gain a major victory this week if the House of Representatives, as is widely expected, passes legislation that will make it tougher for consumers to avoid repaying debts by filing for bankruptcy

The House is scheduled to vote on the bill later this week. Lawmakers had planned to take up the bill last week, but action was delayed as several House members left town to attend the funeral of Pope John Paul II. The Senate passed the bill in a lopsided 74-25 vote last month

If the House passes the Senate version of the legislation with no changes, it would go to the White House; President Bush has said he would be eager to sign it

Proponents say the bill will force wealthier debtors to pay back a larger share of their debts. Opponents say it preserves some of the biggest loopholes for the well off, while cracking down too hard on poorer workers and families whose financial woes stem from layoffs or health problems

The bill's key feature is a means test that supporters say will make it more difficult for wealthy consumers and persons attempting to game the nation's bankruptcy laws to avoid repaying debts

more...

[54anickel]

30. The Debt-Peonage Society (Krugman from March 8)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/08/opinion/08krugman.html?ex=1268024400&en=6d6169df7852a01d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland

Today the Senate is expected to vote to limit debate on a bill that toughens the existing bankruptcy law, probably ensuring the bill's passage. A solid bloc of Republican senators, assisted by some Democrats, has already voted down a series of amendments that would either have closed loopholes for the rich or provided protection for some poor and middle-class families.

The bankruptcy bill was written by and for credit card companies, and the industry's political muscle is the reason it seems unstoppable. But the bill also fits into the broader context of what Jacob Hacker, a political scientist at Yale, calls "risk privatization": a steady erosion of the protection the government provides against personal misfortune, even as ordinary families face ever-growing economic insecurity.

The bill would make it much harder for families in distress to write off their debts and make a fresh start. Instead, many debtors would find themselves on an endless treadmill of payments.

The credit card companies say this is needed because people have been abusing the bankruptcy law, borrowing irresponsibly and walking away from debts. The facts say otherwise.

A vast majority of personal bankruptcies in the United States are the result of severe misfortune. One recent study found that more than half of bankruptcies are the result of medical emergencies. The rest are overwhelmingly the result either of job loss or of divorce.

more...


St. Peter don't you call me cuz I can't go
I owe my soul to the company store

[54anickel]

31. Falling Fortunes of Wage Earners

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/12/business/12wages.html?

snip>

Even though the economy added 2.2 million jobs in 2004 and produced strong growth in corporate profits, wages for the average worker fell for the year, after adjusting for inflation - the first such drop in nearly a decade.

"Pay increases are not rebounding, even though the factors normally associated with higher pay have rebounded," said Peter LeBlanc of Sibson Consulting, a division of Segal, a human resources consulting firm.

The problem is not with the jobs themselves. Most economists dismiss as overblown the widespread fear that the number of jobs will shrink in the United States because of foreign competition from China, India and other developing nations. But at the same time many of these economists argue that the increasing exposure of the American economy to globalization, along with other forces - including soaring health insurance costs that leave less money for raises - is putting pressure on wages that could leave millions of workers worse off.

"We're in for a long period where inflation-adjusted wages will be under acute pressure," said Stephen S. Roach of Morgan Stanley. "That's a most unusual development in a period of high productivity growth. Normally, real wages track productivity."

But some economists are more optimistic, saying that the wage sluggishness is temporary and that real wages have slipped only because a sudden spike in oil prices has briefly left workers behind the curve. These economists assert that wage stagnation will end soon, as normal growth brings a tighter labor market. :eyes:

more...

[54anickel]

32. SEC Investigating Mamma.com (HA! What took them so long?!)

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/tech/internet/10217086.html

Mamma.com (MAMA:Nasdaq - news - research) said the Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry into trading in its shares has become a formal investigation.

Mamma.com said the investigation is now considering disclosure matters as well as financial reporting and internal controls questions. Shares in Mamma.com were halted Tuesday morning on Nasdaq.

The Montreal-based Internet search engine said it beleives that "as part of its investigation, the SEC may consider matters related to trading in the Company's securities and whether an individual and persons acting jointly or in concert with him may have had a significant influence on the Company in the past as a result of undisclosed shareholdings."

snip>

The stock closed Monday at $3.65. :rofl:

On edit: Whoops, just realized UIA already posted this one.
I remember when this stock was going thru the roof - posted several times on it. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

33. Ford extends slide as automakers find no relief

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.4174169444-834074886&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor shares (F) shed another 1.5% to $10.28 on Tuesday, still weighing on the broader auto sector after last week's profit warning and the subsequent departure of its top sales executive. DaimlerChrysler (DCX) , which was the only major automaker moving higher Monday, took the biggest hit, down 1.8% at $41.44, while General Motors (GM) fell almost 1% to $28.97. Nissan Motors' (NSANY) 1.7% retreat to $20.55 paced decliners among Japanese manufacturers.

[UpInArms]

34. Ford bonds extend losses, pressuring spreads

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.4171954167-834074876&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bonds issued by Ford Motor Co. (F) fell sharply again Tuesday, with the spread on its 7.0% note due 2013 widening as much as 47 basis points in early trade. The note was yielding 8.702%. Its spread has widened a full 1.3% in April so far. Ford bonds were hit hard Monday as Fitch cut its ratings outlook to negative from stable, mirroring moves already made by Standard & Poor's and Moody's following a profit warnings for 2005. Bonds issued by General Motors Corp. (GM) and DaimlerChrysler (DCX) were also under pressure.

[UpInArms]

35. Treasurys down after Feb. trade data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF42276E4%2D6A15%2D45AC%2D9AA4%2D4E640A825B35%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys were lower Tuesday morning after news that the February trade gap hit a record high of $61 billion, unleashing fears that the Federal Reserve will have to lift rates more aggressively.

The 10-year bond was last down 7/32 at 96-11/32, pushing the yield up to 4.46% from 4.45% at Monday's close.

The $61 billion February headline figure represented a 4.3% jump from January and sharply exceeded a MarketWatch forecast for a $58.5 billion deficit. The gap's widening was attributed to high consumer demand for imported goods, including Chinese textiles.

Although demand for Chinese textiles was higher in February, there was relief in the market that the overall trade gap with China fell to $13.9 billion from $15.3 billion in January, according to Action Economics economist Kim Rupert.

But the accelerating deficit also accentuated fears in the bond market that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates more aggressively to attract more foreign capital, she said

...more...

[54anickel]

40. Inflation linked 50-year bond in prospect (UK)

Didn't France recently do this as well, or at least were in the planning stages?

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/83ec965c-aac6-11d9-98d7-00000e2511c8.html

The UK government is poised to become the first in the world to issue an inflation-linked 50-year bond to satisfy rising demand for such assets from institutional investors.

The Debt Management Office which borrows on behalf of the government already plans to sell a 50-year conventional bond next month. But an ultra-long bond linked to inflation and therefore protecting investors from the risk of future price rises could come in the third quarter of the calendar year.

snip>

Pension funds are under growing pressure to improve the way they match their assets with their long-dated liabilities, partly because of regulatory requirements, but also because people are living longer.

Issuing such long-dated bonds during a time of historically low interest rates is also a cheap way for the government to reduce the cost of funding the country's rising debt.

snip>

This is particularly important because the recent period of historically low inflation may not last and many investors have liabilities that rise with inflation.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Indonesia Revives Global Bond Sale With Higher Yield

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aDAwy0QShdMg&refer=asia

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's government revived its $1 billion global bond sale, luring investors with a higher yield after a slump in emerging market debt forced it to postpone the offer three weeks ago.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, plans to price the 10-year bonds ``in the next 48 hours,'' Mulia Nasution, director general of Treasury at the Finance Ministry, told reporters in Jakarta today. The sale is the second since the nation's currency lost 86 percent of its value during the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998.

Indonesia is betting higher credit ratings and the fastest economic growth in nine years will attract investors, helping the government cover its estimated $2.1 billion budget deficit. The government postponed the sale on March 23, after emerging market borrowing costs rose to the highest in four months on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve would accelerate interest-rate increases.

``There's definitely been an improvement in sentiment in the last two weeks,'' said Carson Cole, head of DebtTraders, a Hong Kong-based firm which trades high-yield bonds. ``Bonds have been stronger.''

Indonesia may sell dollar-denominated bonds as early as today, pricing the debt in New York, an e-mail sent to investors by one of the sale's arrangers showed. The government is seeking to price the bonds to yield between 7.25 percent and 7.50 percent, the underwriter's e-mail said. Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG are managing the sale.

more...

[UpInArms]

36. 10:41 EST numbers and blather (redder)

Dow 10,385.60 -62.96 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 1,979.32 -12.80 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,173.87 -7.34 (-0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.456 +0.11 (+0.25%)

NYSE Volume 398,591,000
Nasdaq Volume 458,497,000

10:30AM: Indices continue to languish near their lows of the session despite renewed selling interest in oil... Crude oil futures ($53.10/bbl -$0.61) have continued to relinquish early gains following an IEA report that stated slowing demand from China, rising output from OPEC and higher global inventories should help lower near-record prices... But pressure on the commodity, much like the last couple of days, has had little impact on equities, as investors expect quarterly earnings over the next few weeks to set a more definitive tone for the market... NYSE Adv/Dec 685/2170, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 667/1925

10:00AM: Equities remain on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... All 10 economic sectors have traded lower, with Information Technology (-0.8%) - amid widespread weakness in everything from Semiconductor (-1.5%) to Disk Drive (-2.1%) - and Health Care (-0.8%) pacing the way to the downside... Homebuilding (+0.5%), however, has shrugged of rising bond yields and found modest buying interest while Multi-Line Insurance (+1.0%) has benefited from positive analysts comments on American International Group (AIG 52.75 +0.65)... DJTA -0.6, DJUA -0.6, XOI -0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 722/1662, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 815/1531

[54anickel]

39. Sha-zamm!!! Look at that Buck fly!

Last trade 84.72 Change +0.56 (+0.67%)


Heh-heh, the "walking eagle". I thought it was too full of poop to fly.

[54anickel]

37. Japan: The 'Unilateralist' of Asia?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, East Asia was the site of some the most costly wars during the era of the Cold War. But the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region has been a comparative bastion of peace and stability. In recent years, however, that has begun to change as old historic rivalries, whose roots lie in the era of empire and war, have erupted. The common denominator in virtually all of these disputes has been Japan, which has become involved in increasingly acrimonious conflicts with both Korea and China: these have involved Japan and South Korea over Takeshima/Tokdo Islands, and Japan and China over Taiwan, and the Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands.

In many instances, competition for natural resources’/energy security is fuelling the dispute, but more often than not, the growing bitterness appears to spring from the Koizumi administration’s increasingly strident nationalism, which has begun to mirror that of the country’s closest political ally, the US. In particular, Japan’s remilitarization appears to be introducing a new, destabilizing element in the region. In the words of Asian scholar, Chalmers Johnson, “Such a development promotes hostility between China and Japan, the two superpowers of East Asia, sabotages possible peaceful solutions in those two problem areas, Taiwan and North Korea, left over from the Chinese and Korean civil wars, and lays the foundation for a possible future Sino-American conflict that the United States would almost surely lose. It is unclear whether the ideologues and war lovers of Washington understand what they are unleashing -- a possible confrontation between the world's fastest growing industrial economy, China, and the world's second most productive, albeit declining, economy, Japan; a confrontation which the United States would have both caused and in which it might well be consumed.”

Ironically, the issues surface at a time when various initiatives are being floated to create a zone of peace and commerce in East Asia that could involve China, Japan, Korea and the ASEAN nations. But these problems surface, too, when Japan's ruling Liberal Democrat Party has dispatched SDF forces to Iraq, has issued new defence guidelines which assert a more offensive role in Asia, and is exploring an expanded Japanese military role within the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance. All of this might not matter, but for the fact that the region remains the largest repository of savings in the world. Clearly, it does not bode well for global economic stability if these disputes threaten to get out of hand, as they appear to be doing today.

Furthermore, it is questionable whether Japan’s embrace of a more strident and offensive form of nationalism/militarism is in the country’s long term interests, given that the country’s debt is a product of its efforts to help prop up America's global imperial stance. For example, in the period since the end of the Cold War, Japan has subsidized America's military bases in Japan to the staggering tune of approximately $70 billion, and has virtually destroyed country’s national balance sheet through its futile dollar support operations, which in turn has perpetuated the most egregious excesses in U.S. economic policy-making and contributes to global financial instability. Like the US, Japan’s increasingly robust nationalism is the political counterpoint to an economic policy making now running amok.

more...

[54anickel]

44. The Coming Deflation Scare

Didn't we just have an article yesterday alluding to some sort of deal between the Fed and BoJ for the US to import a bit of their deflation?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville041205.html

In the 5th January Interim Update we said: "...if the various markets do roughly what we expect them to do then another big deflation scare is probably on the cards for 2005-2006. In particular, if a) gold and gold stocks experience normal mid-cycle corrections over much of this year, b) the stock market peaks during the first quarter of this year and then declines into the next 4-year cycle bottom (due in the second half of 2006), and c) commodities trend lower between the second quarter of this year and the third quarter of 2006 in synch with reduced global growth expectations and a strengthening US$, then deflation fears will once again begin to dominate the financial landscape. However, it's a very good bet that the end result of the 2005-2006 deflation scare will be the same as the result of every other perceived deflation threat of the past 70 years -- more inflation, one of the main effects of which will be currency depreciation."

We are now into the fourth month of the year and at this stage the financial markets are doing roughly what we expected them to do, that is, the story is unfolding in a way that makes another big deflation scare a likely prospect within the next few quarters. As mentioned in previous commentaries, these deflation scares are quite useful as far as the Fed is concerned because they provide the justification for more inflation. In fact, inflation confers no benefits whatsoever -- not even the transitory kind -- if the public recognises the inflation problem and takes action to protect itself. However, when most people are unconcerned about inflation or believe deflation to be the bigger threat then the Fed is free to inflate to the fullest extent of its powers. That the Fed retains this freedom to inflate is critical because for every dollar in the world there are several dollars of debt, the result being that inflation is the lifeblood of today's monetary system. Or, putting it another way, the current monetary system is effectively the world's largest-ever "Ponzi scheme" in that new money must be continually brought in to allow earlier obligations to be met.

The main difference between genuine deflation and a deflation scare is that the former is a contraction in the total supply of money whereas the latter is a psychological reaction to falling prices. In particular, although a fall in prices that is not preceded by a reduction in the total supply of money has absolutely nothing to do with deflation, many people wrongly think that falling prices and deflation are one and the same. Therefore, whenever there's a broad-based sell-off in the commodity markets the idea that the country is headed towards deflation becomes popular and the call goes out to the Fed to inflate-away the looming threat. The Fed then answers the call even though genuine deflation was never a serious threat in the first place.

snip>

As far as the debt markets are concerned, the thing we can say with the greatest amount of confidence is that the outcome of a deflation scare would be a flight to quality. In other words, a highly probable outcome would be an across-the-board widening of credit spreads (under-performance by emerging market debt relative to US Treasury debt, high-grade corporate debt relative to US Treasury debt, and low-grade corporate debt (junk bonds) relative to high-grade corporate debt). We can also confidently predict that the Fed would make an about-face soon after the markets began to agonise over the prospect of deflation. In fact, the way things are panning out there's a good chance that the next official rate-CUTTING campaign will begin before year-end.

more...

[UpInArms]

47. 11: 50 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,379.53 -69.03 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,977.97 -14.15 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 1,173.02 -8.19 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.442 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 686,143,000
Nasdaq Volume 728,546,000

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, health care stocks have been in focus all morning following mixed earnings reports... Shares of Abbott Labs (ABT 47.28 -0.47) have been under pressure after merely matching analysts' Q1 forecasts as well as issuing in-line Q2 EPS guidance and reaffirming its FY05 outlook... Genentech (DNA 56.83 +0.23), however, has recently inched into positive territory, following better than expected Q1 earnings...

Shares of the No. 2 biotech company had initially been under pressure, as traders remained more focused on lower than expected Avastin sales, but have since found renewed buying interest...NYSE Adv/Dec 726/2315, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 704/2069

11:00AM: Sellers show some resolve as news of indictments worsens overall nervousness... Within the last half hour, US attorneys have held a news conference stating that 15 current and former NYSE specialists have been charged with fraudulent and improper trading... While the criminal probe, which initially grew out of a civil case against the seven specialist firms, has been widely known amongst the investment community, the negativity surrounding the details of such an issue on a day with little in the way of any positive news, has arguably added to market uncertainty...NYSE Adv/Dec 801/2158, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 733/1953

be vewy vewy quiet :puke:

[UpInArms]

52. 12:10 EST update and blather

Dow 10,377.99 -70.57 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,977.36 -14.76 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,172.88 -8.33 (-0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.436 -0.09 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 748,671,000
Nasdaq Volume 785,226,000

12:00PM: Market continues to chalk up widespread losses midday amid record trade deficit data coupled with mixed earnings and guidance... The Feb. trade deficit widened to a record $61.0 bln, up from last month's revised $58.5 bln and above forecasts of $59.0 bln, as imports rose 1.6% against two months of flat export growth...

However, lighter than usual volumes, on the heels of the lightest trading day of the year, have arguably suggested that many investors are waiting on the sidelines ahead of even more influential economic data - the Fed's release (14:00 ET) of the March 22 FOMC meeting minutes, which should give the market a much better perspective on inflationary pressures and the pace of future rate hikes... Meanwhile, crude oil futures ($52.80/bbl -$0.91) have been under pressure following an IEA report that stated slowing demand from China, rising OPEC output and higher global inventories should help lower near-record prices, while Treasurys have also rebounded from early weakness, as the 10-year note is now relatively unchanaged yielding 4.42%...

However, as has been the case of late now that earnings season is underway, falling oil prices and lower (or at least stable) bond yields, have had little influence on stocks, as all 10 economic sectors continue to trade in negative territory... Pacing the way lower has been Materials (-1.4%), amid news that the trade gap with China fell to $13.9 bln from last month's read of $15.3 bln, which has provided a lift to the dollar against major currencies... Energy (-1.1%) has also been weak in the wake of declining oil prices while Information Technology (-0.6%), amid broad-based selling in everything from Semiconductor (-1.5%) to Disk Drive (-1.7%), has also been under pressure...

No mention of the criminal activity on the trading floor :argh:

[54anickel]

54. You have to go to "page 2" to get that dirt -the last entry in the blather

Health Care (-0.8%) has also been weak following mixed earnings results... Abbott Labs (ABT 47.28 -0.47) has matched analysts' Q1 expectations and issued in-line Q2 and FY05 EPS guidance while Genentech (DNA 56.83 +0.23) has beaten Q1 expectations by $0.04... Other notable guidance has come from Black & Decker (BDK 86.56 +6.89), which has raised its Q1 EPS outlook well above expectations while BMC Software (BMC 15.03 +0.38), despite guiding Q4 (Mar) EPS and revenues below consensus estimates, has found buyers in the wake of an analyst upgrade...

Financial (-0.4%) has also traded lower, as weakness in Investment Services following the indictments of 15 current and former NYSE specialists have been charged with fraudulent and improper trading and and downside Q1 guidance from Alliance Capital (AC 43.84 -2.88)... Multi-line Insurance (+1.7%), however, has been one of the only groups catching a bid after Merrill Lynch reiterated a Buy rating on American International Group (AIG 52.96 +0.86) - in the news again as former CEO Hank Greenberg will invoke his Fifth Amendment rights in today's Q&A - citing oversold conditions... DJTA -0.8, DJUA -0.6, DOT -0.8, Nasdaq 100 -0.7, Russell 2000 -0.8, S&P Midcap 400 -0.7, XOI -1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 741/2338, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 808/2044



Heh, notice the light volumes for a second day in a row. Folks are in that "deer caught in the headlights" stance this week.

[UpInArms]

56. either that or now that some of the criminals that are on the

trading floor have been yanked, the rest of those that have been manipulating prices and trading are laying very very low :think:

[54anickel]

59. You mean the markets might be left to their own devices for a day or two?

[UpInArms]

60. nah, they'll just figure out how to do it electronically

and try not to leave too many fingerprints. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

55. those economic sectors at 12:22

DJIA
10,371.40
 -77.16  
 -0.74%

Nasdaq
1,976.89
 -15.23  
 -0.76%

S&P 500
1,172.44
 -8.77  
 -0.74%

Dow Util
364.18
 -2.07  
 -0.57%

NYSE
7,128.13
 -61.29  
 -0.85%

AMEX
1,458.47
 -16.72  
 -1.13%

Russell 2000
602.38
 -4.79  
 -0.79%

Semcond
406.98
 -6.63  
 -1.60%

Gold future
428.70
 -1.70  
 -0.39%

30-Year Bond
4.73%
 -0.00  
 -0.08%

10-Year Bond
4.43%
 -0.01  
 -0.25%

[UpInArms]

57. Gannett profits off on comps, costs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEFA9C94A%2DB64A%2D4E90%2D8F2F%2DD34292BAE2F7%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Tough comparisons in broadcasting and higher costs helped nick Gannett Co.'s first quarter as the media giant reported a drop in profit.

Before the markets opened, Gannett (GCI: news, chart, profile) said it earned $265.7 million, or $1.05 a share, in the first quarter. A year earlier, the company earned $274.4 million, or $1 a share. The average estimate of analysts surveyed Thomson First Call had put earnings at $1.06 a share for the latest quarter.

Revenue at the McLean, Va., publisher rose 3.6% to $1.79 billion, in line with the analysts' estimates. Gannett said revenue growth for its newspaper business was "solid", despite softer advertising demand at the end of March. Its broadcasting business was hurt by a substantially lower level of political advertising and the absence of the Super Bowl on its six CBS affiliates.

Gannett added that its performance was tempered by higher newsprint and interest expenses, and by employee benefit costs.

...more...

[54anickel]

61. Mandelson nearly called in Blair on Airbus-Boeing row

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13130-1565374,00.html

PETER MANDELSON considered calling in the Prime Minister to intervene in negotiations over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, so concerned was he by the US Government’s tactics in the dispute.

The European Trade Commissioner told The Times that he was so alarmed by the state of the dispute that he had considered asking heads of state, including Tony Blair, to appeal to President Bush. :rofl:

Mr Mandelson accused Robert Zoellick, his US counterpart, of being bent on “war” over the dispute between aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing. He said that Mr Zoellick’s attitude would lead to the biggest transatlantic trade battle, would damage US-EU relations and would derail the Doha trade round.

Mr Mandelson hit out at the US trade chief’s tactics after a 90-day deadline to reach a settlement lapsed. The Trade Commissioner said that he was “surprised” and “disappointed” that no progress had been made, but said that if the US launched a case against it at the World Trade Organisation (WTO), then Europe would retaliate with a counter-suit.

more...

[UpInArms]

62. March sales disappointment for Deere

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B682ED7C3%2DBB78%2D4AE8%2DB8C2%2D6D74AF6BF5D5%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Disappointing retail tractor sales in March drove down shares of Deere & Co. and other farm-equipment makers Tuesday, though analysts maintained a positive view on the industry heading into the quarterly earnings reporting season.

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers' monthly survey, released Monday, showed retail demand for four-wheel-drive tractors slipped 12% on a year-over-year basis in March, with sales of large tractors falling about 2%.

Moline, Ill.-based Deere said March sales of its row crop tractors fell "in the single digits," a rate more than the 1% drop highlighted in the AEM survey. In addition, Deere said without being specific, that sales of its four-wheel-drive tractors also fell more than the industry survey showed.

...more...

bet their sales really slump when the farm subsidies cuts hit home

[54anickel]

63. Pensions: Big Holes in the Net

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/12/business/retirement/12walsh.html

snip>

"There is no federal agency enforcing participants' rights," Michael S. Gordon testified in the McDonald case in 2001. Mr. Gordon, who died in 2004, was a principal architect of the federal pension law known as Erisa, or the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, in his six years as minority counsel to the Senate Labor Committee in the 1970's.

"As a practical matter," Mr. Gordon said, "Erisa's enforcement of participants' rights has been placed entirely on the shoulders of the participants themselves."

As the number of Americans nearing retirement grows and concerns about the pension system persist, shortcomings in the law's enforcement are drawing increasing attention. In a series of recent semi-annual reports, the Labor Department's inspector general has cited evidence that many companies have miscalculated the benefits paid by certain plans. The department referred the matter to the Internal Revenue Service, which has not acted.

The inspector general has also repeatedly challenged the quality of pension-plan annual audits, to no avail, and issued a stream of warnings that the consultants who provide advisory services to pension plans may be bilking them.

"We continue to identify multimillion-dollar abuses by plan service providers whose complex financial schemes may impact more than one benefit plan," the inspector general said in the report for 2004.

more...

[ozymandius]

65. major indexes at 12:52

DJIA
10,381.92
  -66.64  
 -0.64%


Nasdaq
1,978.31
  -13.81  
 -0.69%


S&P 500
1,173.65
  -7.56  
 -0.64%

10-Year Bond
4.44%
  -0.01  
 -0.11%

Gotta get back to work folks. Thanks to all for making this thread such a great read! :yourock:

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

68. French Industry Minister says oil industry should sell in euros, not dolla

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/050410/323/fg174.html

PARIS (AFX) - French Industry Minister Patrick Devedjian said the international markets should price crude oil in euros, not dollars as at present, as it is a more stable currency.

'One could insist on an international scale, in order to have better (price) stability, that the euro become the currency for oil transactions,' Devedjian said on Radio J.

'It's a political position that Europe could support... We are suggesting Europe adopts this policy.'

But Devedjian admitted that 'we shouldn't dream, there will not be pricing only in euros' and that transactions would still take place in dollars and other currencies.

Devedjian believes speculation is behind at least 15 usd of the price of each barrel of oil.

more...


Ahh, the French are at it again B-)

[54anickel]

71. The dragon swims again

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/04/11/opinion/edchanda.html

Five hundred and ninety years after a Chinese fleet cast anchor at Hormuz, the Chinese are back in the Arabian Sea. When Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China visited Pakistan last week, one of the many deals he signed was for the deepening of the port at Gwadar, whose Chinese-built facilities symbolize China's return to an area that was, briefly, a playground for its navy.

The port's projected size and strategic location have sent ripples of anxiety through Washington, Tokyo and New Delhi about the potential establishment of a permanent Chinese naval presence near the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's oil passes.

For the sake of regional stability, Beijing should forgo any ambitions to use Gwadar for its naval vessels. Yet China has valid reasons to help develop a commercial port that other powers must accept. Its return to the Indian Ocean is the logical outcome of its blazing economic growth, which the West has encouraged, applauded and profited from. A China that depends increasingly on imported oil transported great distances can justifiably seek commercial refueling and repair facilities, just as European powers dependent on far-flung coaling stations for their ships did in the 19th century.

snip>

China's search for energy security also dovetails, however, with its long-term strategic effort to expand its regional influence and box in India. Analysts see Chinese-operated listening posts in Myanmar's Coco Islands, China's support for a port near Yangon for handling 10,000-ton ships (of which the Burmese have only a few) and another deep-water port at Kyaukpyu in western Myanmar, Chinese aid to the Bangladeshi port of Chittagong and plans to improve Cambodia's Sihanoukville as part of an incremental effort to build a "string of pearls" presence on the Indian Ocean rim.

Many believe it is only a matter of time before the Chinese Navy, much strengthened by recent purchases of ships and technology, arrives in Gwadar. Pakistani officials boast that Gwadar's Chinese connection will help to frustrate India's domination of regional waterways. A maritime presence in the area would enable China to monitor naval patrols by the United States and protect Chinese sea lines of communication. China Economic Net, an online news outlet sponsored by China's leading business paper, calls Gwadar "China's biggest harvest."

more...

[KoKo]

74. Hate to say this but given those crazies

in the WH who are bullying everyone...this is to be expected..as we here on DU who read all the time, have predicted. The Chimp is causing everyone to be armed to protect their interests because he will come and bomb you if you don't.

There are even hints in the older articles "54" posted up in this thread earlier today. One of the articles from 2003 was talking about "protectionism" sweeping the Global Economy and Steven Roach's article says the same. Paplova and others have been warning this for awhile.

We have choices but the Bullies in DC will always go for war over diplomacy. It's impossible to know what to do financially with SS and Pensions threatened, job security gone and yet it all rolls on on CNBC with music blaring and happy talk about where the next "opportunity" lies in the Global Economy, never mind that it's falling down around us, while the criminals get handslaps and fines. :-(

On Edit: Sorry for the Gloom and Doom...that's why I've stayed over in Politics. :D Don't want to come here and depress everyone.

[54anickel]

90. HA! You can't possibly depress anyone here. At least not anymore

than the articles posted do!

Yep, the world is becoming a much more dangerous place everyday. The article I posted up in 37 is pretty alarming as well. Seems the US is pushing Japan hard to give up their Pacifist Constitution.

[UpInArms]

93. come on in, the water's fine!

depression? ah, I thought that was the natural response to this unnatural situation - the corrupt junta that is bent on destroying everything good about the country we live in - coupled with the intellect and knowledge of all the the dealings and shady tradings that have led us to this place.

:grouphug:

My only consolation these days is that I'm not the only one who knows - so I keep turning up here in the SMW and LBN - what little thread of sanity I have left is a credit to other DUers that help me know that I am not alone.

[KoKo]

114. Well said...and another Group Hug to all...after hours..post but stilll

:grouphug:

[UpInArms]

75. CA cuts profit estimate on charge - repatriated cash

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC9C3038D%2D81E9%2D465E%2D9CEC%2DE255F49E8D49%7D&siteid=mktw

Software maker sees $35M charge on repatriated cash

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Computer Associates International Inc. lowered its fourth-quarter net income forecast Tuesday, saying it will take a $35 million tax charge as it brings overseas profits back to the U.S.

CA, the Islandia, N.Y., management software company (CA: news, chart, profile) , said it will take the charge, equal to 6 cents a share, in conjunction with the plans to repatriate $500 million under the American Jobs Creation Act. The law gives companies a temporary tax break for bringing overseas income back into the U.S.

CA lowered its forecast for net earnings to 1 cent to 2 cents a share due to the charge, down from a previous estimate calling for a profit of 7 cents to 8 cents a share for the period that ended on March 31.

<snip>

Shauger, however, was disappointed the company didn't provide details on its quarterly bookings or operating cash flow, which he sees as key in evaluating its financial performance.

"We believe the lackluster mainframe environment will likely continue to hamper CA's growth," the CIBC analyst, who rates the company's stock sector performer, said in an investment note.

...more...

[54anickel]

86. HAHA! Blame that measley little, what 5%, tax for their lower net income

forecast? That's just plain BS!

[UpInArms]

81. 2:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,384.86 -63.70 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,973.54 -18.58 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,173.78 -7.43 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.436 -0.09 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,121,273,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,137,483,000

2:00PM: Stocks still show little vigor, having moved little in the past hour, as the majority of blue chips remain underwater... On the Dow, Boeing (BA 58.18 -1.22), despite potentially inking a $2.1 bln Dreamliner deal from Northwest Airlines, has paced to the way lower, while Alcoa (AA 30.69 -0.48), DuPont (DD 49.40 -0.98), General Motors (GM 28.73 -0.52), Intel (INTC 22.68 -0.44) and Wal-Mart (WMT 47.91 -0.60) have all joined Boeing with losses in excess of 1.0%....

American International Group (AIG 52.68 +0.58), however, which had been the only component trading higher just over an hour ago, has remained positive, while renewed buying interest in Home Depot (HD 37.85 +0.11) has recently inched the retailer back into the green...NYSE Adv/Dec 873/2341, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 820/2143

1:30PM: Range-bound trading persists, as investors await economic data that may show inflation is accelerating... At the top of the hour (14:00 ET), the Fed will release the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting (Mar. 22) - widely anticipated information that should shed some light on inflationary pressures and the pace of future interest rate hikes... Ever since January's minutes were released, which detailed December's FOMC meeting and showed growing worries among central bankers about the threat of inflation, concerns over rising prices and higher interest rates have dominated the markets... NYSE Adv/Dec 860/2329, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 849/2101

[UpInArms]

83. 2:13 EST numbers (moving back up! doing the happy dance!)

Dow 10,419.30 -29.26 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,981.33 -10.79 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,177.59 -3.62 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.442 -0.03 (-0.07%)

NYSE Volume 1,176,962,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,198,168,000

Whee! Stocks are the place to be!

[UpInArms]

84. Nasdaq 'corrects' after FOMC minutes, then bounces

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.5925091088-834084086&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was last down 11 points at 1,981, recovering from losses of as much as 22 points following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy setting committee (Federal Open Market Committee). At its intraday low of 1,970.46, the Nasdaq had lost 10% since reaching a 3 1/2-year high of 2,191 on Jan. 3, which means the decline technically qualifies as a correction. Stocks were initially spooked by the Fed's disclosure that while the inflation outlook was uncertain, many FOMC members saw risks tilted to the upside, and some saw higher odds of a faster pace of interest rate hikes.

[loudsue]

87. LOL! The PPT couldn't allow those numbers to hold below 10,400

:rofl: silly buggers!

:kick:

[UpInArms]

89. Stocks reverse course on Fed minutes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B69C805E3%2D9DE1%2D498B%2D8D7E%2DD8486FCDFCD9%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rebounded Tuesday to trade mixed on relief that the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee did not show an escalation in inflation concerns from its prior stance.

"There is nothing in the Fed minutes that was alarming to anybody," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "By revealing their inflation concerns in the March statement, it made the minutes less likely to surprise on the hawkish side."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was up 2 points to 10,451 after falling as low as 10,360.92 prior to the release of the minutes.

...more...

"nothing alarming" everything's hunky dory! let's party!

"no criminals in our midst" Ah'm hunting wabbits! :rofl:

[54anickel]

94. Fed minutes or the 2:00 fairy dust?...eom

[UpInArms]

97. probably "fairy dust"

although I thought it was a generous spreading of manure.

[UpInArms]

91. Wal-Mart shares bottom at two-year low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.6020465162-834084453&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) hit a two-year trough of $47.77 in midday trading Tuesday, but recovered slightly in recent dealings. Shares were off 24 cents to $48.27.

[UpInArms]

95. 2:44 EST numbers and blather (YeeHaw!)

Dow 10,474.94 +26.38 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,996.05 +3.93 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,183.39 +2.18 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.370 -0.75 (-1.69%)

NYSE Volume 1,385,644,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,402,376,000

2:30PM: Major indices reverse course in noticeable fashion as the reading of the March FOMC Minutes suggests the Fed is of the belief that an accelerated pace of policy tightening (i.e. 50 bp) does not appear necessary at this time... With participants fearful ahead of the release that the Minutes would reveal more hawkish inflation commentary, the recognition that the commentary was pretty much in line with what participants already knew has encouraged the rebound effort...

Aiding in the advance has been the improvement in the Treasury market where the 10-yr note is now up 19 ticks and its yield down to 4.36%... On a related note, PIMCO's Bill Gross has been quoted as saying "a 50 basis point rate hike is out of the question."...NYSE Adv/Dec 1172/2065, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1093/1915

[54anickel]

96. Zowie, wow-wow! But the buck is coming back down off of its high for

the day:

Last trade 84.59 Change +0.43 (+0.51%)

High 84.81 Low 83.95

[UpInArms]

98. Dow bounces more than 100 points off intraday low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.6202029861-834085186&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow industrials ($INDU) was last up 37 points at 10,486, bouncing 125 points off its intraday low after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve open market committee meeting did not reveal any escalation of inflation concerns. The Dow had been down as much as 88 points at its intraday low of 10,360.92. The FOMC minutes just echoed the Fed's previous public statements that inflation was becoming a concern.

and that makes it all better :puke:

[ZR2]

100. Oil prices dropping 2 dollars a barrel today

certainly is helping the Dow as much as the meeting minutes.

[UpInArms]

101. Crude futures down more than 3% at the close ($51.78 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/archivedpulseone.asp?archive=pulsetrue&dist=ArchiveSplash&siteid=mktw&guid=&dateid=38454.6302290741-834085606&returnURL=%2Fnews%2Fnewsfinder%2Fpulseone%2Easp%3Fdateid%3D38454%2E6302290741%2D834085606%26siteID%3Dmktw%26scid%3D0%26doctype%3D806%26property%3Dsymb%26value%3D%26categories%3D%26archive%3Dpulsetrue

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark crude-oil contract closed more than 3% lower Tuesday, after the International Energy Agency suggested the peak may have come in oil prices. May crude fell 3.4%, or $1.85, to close at a 7-week low of $51.86 per barrel.

hopefully that will filter through to the pumps - but the refiners will prolly say that it costs more to make that "summer blend" :eyes:

[ZR2]

102. Refineries are probably already producing

the summer blend. However, it would not surprise me to see oil gain back all of today's losses tomorrow. Too much irrationality in the oil futures market and manipulation by financial firms to get a good gauge on it.

[UpInArms]

99. 3:04 EST numbers and blather (movin' on up)

Dow 10,511.74 +63.18 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,002.84 +10.72 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,188.36 +7.15 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.362 -0.83 (-1.87%)

NYSE Volume 1,510,660,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,520,315,000

3:00 Market continues to put together a solid advance as the market averages extend their reach into positive territory... Providing the largest lift to the indices has been a widespread recovery in interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial (+1.2%), Utility (+1.0%) and Homebuilding (+2.1%), as yields on the 10-year note (4.35%) have stabilized at levels not seen in more than a month... Also erasing a day's worth of weakness have been Technology, Health Care, Industrials and Consumer Staples while Energy (-1.1%) - as oil prices lost more than 3.0% to close below $52/bbl - and Materials (-0.1%) have been the only two economic sectors failing to turn positive... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1529/1699. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1422/1587.

[UpInArms]

104. 3:32 EST numbers and blather (not a care in the world)

Dow 10,522.31 +73.75 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 2,005.29 +13.17 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,187.98 +6.77 (+0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.360 -0.85 (-1.91%)

NYSE Volume 1,686,802,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,674,699,000

3:30 Holding steady at modestly higher levels as buyers remain in control of late-day action... Meanwhile, market breadth has recently turned slightly positive in the wake of the market's recovery... However, while the rebound has clearly improved sentiment heading into more earnings reports, the sustainability of today's bounce will arguably depend on a couple of factors - whether or not earnings and ensuing guidance check in better than expected and whether or not oil prices and bond yields can continue to trade near low levels... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1939/1316. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1613/1424.

[54anickel]

106. Yippee-i-yoooo, Yippee-i-aye

the market's in for a brighter day.

[RawMaterials]

109. Possibly last minute 2004 IRA contributions ??? n/m

[54anickel]

111. Heh-heh, I dunno. But remember, there was an article yesterday

touting that April has been the best month for the Dow since 1950.

Good a time as any for another sucker's rally, or just smoke and mirrors to put off the reckoning for a bit longer again. The technicals are at a very important level right now. Like most of what we've been reading lately, the next week or two could be quite telling. :popcorn:

[UpInArms]

105. Harris Associates discontinues use of soft dollars

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38454.6572506944-834086674&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Harris Associates, a Chicago-based investment management firm, Tuesday said it has discontinued the use of "soft dollars" to pay for third-party research and services for all client accounts, including the Oakmark Funds, effective April 1. The future cost of those services will be paid for by Harris Associates. "The traditional institutional stock brokerage arrangement - where trade execution is bundled with research and other services into one commission charge - is beginning to unravel under the pressure of market forces," John Raitt, president and CEO of Harris, said in a statement. "These trends have caused us to reassess our approach to the use of 'soft dollar' commissions to pay for third-party research and services."

ummm.... soft dollars .... ah... er... er... oh! kickbacks!

[54anickel]

107. Hey, that's OK, as long as those 3rd party firms claim the income from

the kickbacks on their taxes. B-)

[RawMaterials]

108. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10507.97 +59.41 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 2005.40 +13.28 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1187.76 +6.55 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.360% -0.85

NYSE Volume 1,956,914,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,897,575,000



Close: Stocks staged a late-day reversal, taking a bullish cue from a rebound in bonds, after minutes from the Fed's March meeting raised confidence that more aggressive policy tightening was not necessary at this time... At 2:00 ET, the March FOMC Minutes suggested the Fed is of the belief that an accelerated pace of policy tightening (i.e. 50 basis points) does not currently appear necessary... Market participants were fearful ahead of the release, under the assumption that the minutes would reveal more hawkish inflation commentary...

But when investors recognized that the commentary was relatively in line with what the market has known all along, renewed buying interest in Treasurys pushed yields on the 10-year note to levels (4.35%) not seen in over a month and, in turn, ignited broad-based buying efforts in equities... The benchmark 10-year note closed up 16 ticks to yield 4.36%, as a comment from PIMCO's Bill Gross - "a 50 basis point rate hike is out of the question" - also helped strengthen the conviction that policy makers won't accelerate the pace of further interest rate hikes...

However, the knee-jerk recovery from an overall sluggish day of trading, highlighted by a record trade deficit, mixed earnings/guidance and volatile oil prices, should arguably be taken with a grain of salt, as the sustainability of such sudden turnaround - essentially spurred by the reality that rates will continue to rise (just not as fast as many may have expected), remains in question...

Meanwhile, a widening in the Feb. trade deficit to a record $61.0 bln (consensus -$59.0 bln), up from last month's revised $58.5 bln, as imports rose 1.6% against two months of flat export growth, was largely the cause for alarm early on that underpinned the bearish sentiment that kept every major economic sector under pressure throughout much of the session... But in the end, an improved sentiment heading into more earnings reports helped 9 of the 10 economic sectors turn positive... Pacing the way higher, benefiting from falling bond yields, was Financial (+1.2%)... Earlier, however, the sector came under pressure following the indictments of 15 current and former NYSE specialists charged with fraudulent and improper trading as well as downside Q1 guidance from Alliance Capital (AC 44.16 -2.56)...

Other interest-rate sensitive areas like Utility (+1.0%) and Homebuilding (+2.7%) followed suit to the upside while Technology was also an influential leader finishing higher... Health Care (+0.6%) also recovered some lost ground despite mixed earnings results... Abbott Labs (ABT 47.90 +0.15) matched analysts' Q1 forecasts and issued in-line Q2 and FY05 EPS guidance while Genentech (DNA 57.62 +1.02) beat Q1 expectations by $0.04, which gave Biotech a boost...

Other notable guidance came from Black & Decker (BDK 87.75 +8.08), which raised its Q1 EPS outlook well above expectations while BMC Software (BMC 14.90 +0.25), despite guiding Q4 (Mar) EPS and revenues below consensus estimates, found buyers in the wake of an analyst upgrade... Energy (-1.1%), however, on the heels of a 3.4% sell off in oil prices closed lower... Crude oil futures ($51.86/bbl -$1.85) fell 3.4% following an IEA report that stated slowing demand from China, rising OPEC output and higher global inventories should help lower near-record prices... The Materials sector, which paced the way lower midday amid news that the trade gap with China fell to $13.9 bln from last month's read of $15.3 bln, finished flat...

Separately, the Mar. Treasury Budget checked in at -$71.2 bln, a slight $2 bln improvement from a year ago but larger than the -$69.8 bln economists expected; however, since the data can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, the market has paid little attention to the report... NYSE Adv/Dec 2075/1213, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1685/1395

[spotbird]

110. Strange day.

Dollar's up on bad news, stocks rally based on illusions.

I guess it was just normal.