A 'Non' From France Could Throw Europe Into Crisis

[chlamor]

How a 'Non' from France could throw Europe's future into crisis

French voters are in the mood to sink the EU constitution

Alex Duval Smith in Paris
Sunday April 10, 2005
The Observer

Once they were seen as the most loyal of all Europeans, but this week President Jacques Chirac faces one of the biggest battles of his political career as he launches a crusade to persuade the French to vote 'Oui' in next month's referendum on the EU constitution.

Chirac will use a televised debate on Thursday to lay out his arguments in favour of the draft European constitution, amid mounting hostility. Yesterday the president of the European parliament, Josep Borrell, warned the French that they would plunge Europe into crisis if they rejected the constitution. Alarmed by opinion polls which show the 'Non' campaign in the lead, Borrell warned that rejecting the treaty on 29 May would have far more serious implications for the future of Europe than they imagine.

'Everywhere in Europe I come across a feeling of serious concern. People thought the problem would come from the British, but are discovering it is coming from a founding (EU) member state without which you cannot imagine the European project continuing,' Borrell told Le Monde . 'The "no" supporters in France think their rejection will cause a salutary crisis or even salvation without a crisis. I think there will be a crisis and it will not be salutary.'

Successive opinion polls have bolstered the 'no' campaign - the latest, released last week, showed 55 per cent of the French public were opposed to the constitution, against 40 per cent a month ago - and the government and mainstream Socialists have redoubled their efforts to win over the electorate. They have resorted to gimmicks such as a tour of Casino supermarkets by astronaut-turned-minister Claudie Haigneré, visits by foreign politicians and explanatory meetings for homeless people.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1456149,00.html

[rockymountaindem]

1. How does this impact the Euro?

Could this cause the Euro to disband?

[AlamoDemoc]

3. Indeed, a "NO" referumdum by the french public will have

a major set back on EU's unification in general. I think Chirac should delay the vote until all the local union and labor issues are settled

[termo]

7. only 4/5 yes are needed

when at least 20 contries on the 25 voted yes, then the constitutional treaty becomes valid.

the 'no' team may only have choice between 'yes' or 'exit'.

[Maple]

2. All the countries get to vote on it

If any of them vote no, it causes a problem.

It means they do another draft of it...that's all.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

4. I saw an interesting debate on this the other night on French TV5

Jeremy Rifkin took part, along with several leftist leaders in France. It seems that much of the opposition is coming from the far left, including the communists, who don't feel that the constitution will provide enough protection for worker rights. The Greens seem to be in favor, on the whole. Rifkin accused opponents of nitpicking, but the opposition is saying that once a constitution is ratified, it will become very hard to change.

[aneerkoinos]

6. far left?

Yep, nobody in the left likes the neoliberal aspects of the constitution. I used to be in favour despite of those, but actually it wouldn't be such a bad deal if it was rejected because it's too right wing.

If it was rejected because of nationalism (as it will be in England, but who cares about those little ingerlanders), that would be bad, but with criticism and rejection from left there is actually hope that we can do a second round and try to make it right next time.

[Frederik]

46. I concur with the communists on this one

The EU, on the whole, has been something of a mixed blessing. I think both the internal market and the euro were good ideas, but I do think the high levels of unemployment in France and Germany can partly be attributed to the introduction of the internal market. I don't really see the need for this constitution, I think it would impinge further on the national sovereignty of the european nation-states, and cement the neo-liberal economic dogma.

In fact, I don't think it would be such a bad thing to see it rejected out of a feeling of nationalism either, as it will be in the UK. Nationalism, historically, is inextricably intertwined with democracy, and I don't know if democracy as we have known it would or will survive the demise of the nation-state. The EU is developping a more democratic decision-making process, granting more power to the Parliament, which is certainly a good thing, but the distance between the voters and the decision-making process is still much greater than in the respective nation-states. The freedom for a country to choose a different economic policy is already greatly reduced in the EU, and I don't want to see it reduced further.

The EU, and in particular this constitution, are seen by many as an elite project, conducted above the heads of "ordinary" people. These referenda are a way for the common man to have a say, and it is understandable that he would want to use that rare opportunity to say "non" to the elite.

Many fear an integration process that will lead to a common army, common trans-national police, EU taxes, etc. While I think these things are far into the future, if we'll ever see them at all, I don't think those fears are entirely unjustified. That's part of the background, I think, to the fairly extensive opposition to the constitution.

[enid602]

5. European constitution

This development might be bad news for the fundies, who view a resurgent Europe (I think they call it a snake with 13 heads or something like that) as a sign of the 'end times.' I think they believe that the anti christ is now living in and will head up a United Europe. Looks like Bush may have spent all those trillions and bankrupted our economy for nothing. Oh well.

[Mizmoon]

9. "I saw a beast ... with ten horns and seven heads"

*sigh*

[lanlady]

8. there will be a French govt shake-up

with Chirac probably appointing Dominique de Villepin (best known here for his speech opposing Powell at the UN in Feb 2003) as prime minister. Then Chirac will try again, and the Eurocrats will go back to re-writing the Constitution.

By the way, here's a song (in French) based on the Powell/Villepin duel:

http://www.frenchtouche.com/focus.php?feedback=1&id=2081&

[Flagg]

10. The neocons are against this constitution.

So I'll definitely vote yes.

[RogueTrooper]

11. That may be a good campaigning frame

Tell the French that if they vote 'non' they will be doing the bidding of Bush and his neo-con cohorts.

:evilgrin:

[Moderator]

12. kick to combine

[lovuian]

13. France's 'No' to EU could spark euro crisis

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=e41869e871b79067
Big News Network.com Wednesday 13th April, 2005 (UPI)

A No vote to the EU Constitution in France's May 29 referendum could result in serious economic consequences, a German economist warns.

Norbert Walter, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank, told the Financial Times Deutschland French rejection could trigger a currency crisis in the new member states.

That could cause speculative attacks on currencies of the new EU member states, Walter said. The countries concerned would then have to raise their interest rates, he said. The result would be enormous exchange rate fluctuations.

more...

Watch the Euro???

[Maple]

14. All the countries will vote on it

and any one of them could say no.

They'll just rewrite it, and have another vote.

Temporary dips only, the EU isn't going to disappear

[termo]

21. only 4/5 of votes are needed

if 20 contries or more are voting yes, then the commission will gather to decide what to do.

They can decide to have the new constitutional treaty valid from end of 2006 and then the contries which voted no will have choice to accept it or leave.

They can also decide to postpone it, then the existing treaties will stay unchanged for a decade or more waiting for a new constitutional treaty.

Since nobody wants to leave EU, there is good chance that if 20 or more are voting yes, they will push for the first option.

[cestpaspossible]

15. The headline was confusing

it makes it sound like they already voted no. But I think they will vote yes.

[lovuian]

16. France is a Big country in the EU and if it votes NO that opens

the door for a rebellion!!!

[LondonAmerican]

17. We can only hope so - nt.

[aquart]

18. Sure, hope for NO stable world currency.

[jukes]

28. your post makes little sense

you want the EU weakened? that's how i read your comment, but i can't imagine why any liberal wd feel that way.

maybe you cd elaborate; either explain why a weak EU is a good thing, or correct my misinterpretation?

[sushi]

19. I hope

the French people will vote "Yes!" I want the EU to be united, and very prosperous!

[BonjourUSA]

20. French people are very curious!.

The majority of French who are thinking to vote "NO", hope that "Yes" will win !!!????

I'm French and it's very hard for me to understand such a mind disease.

[aneerkoinos]

22. Left and EU

"The opposition Socialist party is on the brink of a permanent split over the issue: many senior members are openly advocating a no vote to what they see as a blueprint for a neo-liberal, market-driven, Anglo-Saxon Europe."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,11882,1458408,00.html

They are right, of course, when putting together the proposition for constitution the rat bastard weakling continental leaders gave in to each and every of Blair's red lines agains social issues, in favour of neoliberal market-fundamentalist ideology of corporatocracy.

So now they pay, as the people want the social model of Europe to mean more, much more, than just pretty words at election time.

UK membership in EU is expendaple, in many ways getting rid of England would be wellcome, but social model is not expendaple.

[Stella_Artois]

23. Not too sure about that

The UK is one of the wealthiest countries in the EU, and has a much lower unemployment rate than France or Germany. Its economy is growing at a healthy rate and it will be the biggest economy in the EU soon, if Germany does not recover in the next few years.

[RogueTrooper]

24. The UK is the second largest contributor

to the EU budget as well. It contributes more that France even after the rebate is taken into account.

[aneerkoinos]

25. Bullcrap

Stop reading the Murdoch press:

"In absolute terms, Germany was the largest contributor to the EU budget in 2003 (23.2% of total EU budget), followed by France (19.4%), Italy (14.6%) and the UK (10.8% after rebate). Together, these four Member States financed more than two thirds of the total EU budget. "

http://www.euractiv.com/Article?tcmuri=tcm:28-130396-16&type=News

[RogueTrooper]

26. I read the Irish Times and the Guardian

neither of which are owned by Rupert Murdoch.

Factor in the the amount of money each country received from the central funds.

In absolute terms, Spain was the largest recipient of the 77.8 billion euros of allocated EU expenditure in 2003 (20.4% of total expenditure), followed by France (16.9%), Italy (13.5%) Germany (13.5%) and the UK (7.8%).

Then you will have your figures.

[aneerkoinos]

29. Of course

one can make stats show what one wants.

However, this is beside the point. Better related to the point I was making is e.g. the human poverty index, where UK comes very low compared to other developed European countries. In terms of inequality UK (15th) is on the same line with US (17th) and Australia (14), other European countries taking the first 14 places.

AFAIK I know UK has the worst homeless problem and worst labour standards of well developed European (EU15, Norway Switzerland) countries.

UK neoliberal Thatcher-Blair model is not an example people want to follow. Corporations do.

[aneerkoinos]

27. UK economy

is mostly built on the financial sector, the manufacturing base has been getting only weaker.

There's a huge housing bubble, with huge private debt problem.

Generally GNP/GDP is not usefull as serious economic & wellfare indicator.

[Stella_Artois]

34. Housing bubble ?

What newspapers have YOU being reading ?

This "bubble" has been predicted over and over and over again for 18 months or more.

Prices have leveled off, but not collapsed or even fallen in most regions. Its hasn't burst, and its not going to. The point where it looked likely is months passed. The economy shows few signs of faltering.

Consistant growth in GDP, low unemployment and low inflation are pretty good signs of economic health.

[RogueTrooper]

38. That bubble has been predicted for nearly

five years. People were predicting a bursting bubble when I moved to London in 2000. I left last year and people were still predicting a burst bubble.

[rfkrfk]

30. no chance, without France

My understanding is, there is a net inflow of
EU cash to France, in part due to agricultural subsidies.
Suppose France vote 'no'.
Others who vote 'yes', won't like the fact that
a non-full-participant is getting subidies.
Those others will attempt to pull the plug.
France will threaten to leave the EU, euro, or something else.
..... politicians will step in before it gets to that point,
a French vote 'yes', on this or some other version,
is absolutely needed.

[RogueTrooper]

36. Well, when the Irish voted no to the Nice agreement

things got financially dificult as the Continental 'Great Powers' vented some spleen on them.

If France votes no then I would expect a discussion about the Common Agriculturial Policy to ensue. The Germans are none to happy about having to foot the bill for French agriculture; and resentment abounds at Britain's rebate.

Also, if France votes no I would expect to see the decline in their EU influence to become far more marked. Consequently I would expect the UK to consolidate her rising influence. What changes that will make to the UK electorates' view of the EU remains to be seen.

[T_i_B]

31. MEPs veto moves to end fraud scandals

Right on cue to woo the French voters eh?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/04/13/weu13.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/04/13/ixportal.html

Members of the European Parliament rejected moves yesterday to clean up scandal-ridden arrangements for their travel allowances and expenses. Their decision prompted anger and disbelief from British MEPs, who voted for proposed reforms.

In a series of votes carried by a margin of six to four at a full session of the parliament in Strasbourg, MEPs resisted proposals for audits of their accounts and turned down calls to impose sanctions on those found to have defrauded the taxpayer.

The votes "gave an all-clear to embezzlement", said Chris Davies MEP, the leader of the British Liberal Democrats in the parliament. Mr Davies expressed particular disappointment after his fellow MEPs voted to continue a trust-based system for payments into the parliament's private pension scheme.

The scheme is wide open to fraud. MEPs who choose to join can pay up to £664 a month into their pension plans, with their contribution deducted from their office expense account, not from their salary. In theory, MEPs then reimburse their office accounts for pension contributions but no checks are carried out.

[moondust]

32. Expect some Bushco meddling.

Washington doesn't want a powerful EU posing challenges to U.S. uber alles. I'd expect some U.S. involvement in trying to foment rebellion.

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

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[moondust]

35. Ha!

Why fifteen rather than, say, fifteen hundred?

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

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[Stella_Artois]

41. Your view of history is a little short

Pretty much every single present day nation in Europe is an amalgamation of prior smaller nations.

Many of these are older than 1500 years.

France for example, was a number of seperate kingdoms, as was the present day England. The UK itself is a group of nations.

[Name removed]

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[RogueTrooper]

39. That is what the CIA predicted

15 years before the EU collapsed. :eyes:

Of course it must be true. What with the CIA's recent record of success both at intelligence gathering and keeping ideological viewpoints out of their briefings.

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

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[RogueTrooper]

42. When does this prediction start

Today? the founding of the EEC? The Maastricht treaty? The Nice Treaty? The millenium -> no reason just a clean number - but would that be the 2000 millenium or the 2001 millenium? ;)

[Name removed]

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[Frederik]

43. Scare mongering

It has been clear all along that the constitution would pass. If noone else, the British will never ratify it. And it sure looks like the French won't either.