U.S. to create a bird flu virus mutation

[Lori Price CLG]

U.S. to create a bird flu virus mutation

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has begun a series of experiments to see how likely the bird flu virus could result in a human pandemic .

The six-month series of experiments seeks to simulate the mixing and matching of genes from the H5N1 avian flu virus that has plagued Asia and a common human flu virus that public-health experts fear could turn avian flu into a pandemic, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

CDC scientists inside an ultra-secure laboratory have started swapping the genes of the H5N1 avian virus with the genes of an H3N2 virus, the strain behind most recent human flu outbreaks.

Flu 'Oddities'
http://www.legitgov.org/flu_oddities.html

Lori Price

[lovuian]

1. What makes me so damn terrified to know Bush is in control

of this stuff!!!

[Lori Price CLG]

2. Right, and what about the 20+ deaths of microbiologists, since 9/11?

BTW, 'twenty' is the conservative number. There are estimates of much, much higher...

Lori Price

[don954]

12. the scarry part isnt SINCE 9/11, its the 20 or so deaths

in the few months right after, and almost all working on or had worked on bio-wep type microbes.

[Sufi Marmot]

26. Actually, most of them weren't... n/t

[pandemic_1918]

31. Scientists and Google

The only link between the deaths was Google.

[pandemic_1918]

40. Family of 5 Hospitalized in Haiphong

If you want something to worry about, focus on the family of 5 just hospitalized in Haiphong with bird flu symptoms

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+haiphong+vietnam

If this is confirmed, it probably signals the start of the pandemic.

[Theres-a]

5. Yes!

[havocmom]

3. Take a bad thing and make it worse? There's a plan.

Wonder what population they plan to wipe out. And how do they contain it?

I do not trust any government agency at this point. Too much pressure on good people to serve bad causes.

[Theres-a]

6. How do they contain it.Good Question.

[pandemic_1918]

32. It's a Re-Run

This is just a re-run of the same experiment using H5N1 from 1997. Didn't show anything the first time, won't be any different the second time. H5N1 evolves by changing genes, not exchanging genes.

Reassortment may speed up effects of recombination, but recombination makes a pandemic virus (as well as the annual changes).

Drifts and shifts are all about recombination, not reassortment

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03230502/CDC_H5N1_Mix_Again.html

[zippy890]

38. thank you for your posts

whenever the subject is the bird flu, I look for your credible information.

[Silverhair]

42. Thank for clearing that up. NT

[Theres-a]

4. Did I read that correctly?That does it.Now I'm scared.

They shouldn't cross those two should they?It sounds like the beginning of the Stephen King movie the Stand,as was discussed here awhile back.

[Lori Price CLG]

7. Yes, it slipped through the cracks during the Terri Schiavo coverage. n/t

[Theres-a]

9. Cracks my ass,they knew we weren't looking!!

Or am I just up too late?

[pandemic_1918]

34. No, It's Both a Re-Run and Old News

These experiments have been done before (on 1997 H5N1) and the new experiments (on 2004 H5N1) were announced months ago

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/122804/CDC_WHO_Experiment_Fails.html

[Lori Price CLG]

35. The article posted, was within twelve hours of its publication, and *new.*

Please don't imply the article posted in this forum is old - it is not.

Lori Price

[pandemic_1918]

49. The News Is Old

The article may be new, but the news is old.

[DS1]

8. Someone FedEX a copy of The Stand to the CDC, please

:eyes:

[Kool Kitty]

21. Exactly what I thought-

look out, here comes Project Blue.

[ConcernedCanuk]

10. "U.S. to create a bird flu virus mutation" - umm . . mutation=bio-weapon?

.
.
.

seems to me that it is just all too possible, AND plausible, that Rummy and gang are working on more deadly weapons than Saddam ever even thought of . .

ah, maybe the BFEE 'll feck up and spill some on themselves

wishful thinking on my part I suppose . .

(sigh)

[Lori Price CLG]

13. Yup, the Bush terror team is the greatest threat to the planet n/t

[ConcernedCanuk]

15. I agree - I fear no other nation EXCEPT our southern neighbor

.
.
.

sad . .

isn't it?

(sigh)

[tblue37]

22. They don't have to have evil plans even.

All they need to do is screw up.

Can you imagine the government screwing something up?

Yeah. me too.

[Silverhair]

11. Trying to make a vaccine?

How many of those posting so far are doctors or medical people?

Of course I am not either. However, for the past few weeks I have been reading up on the flu. A particular DUer is also a world class flu expert and believes that the direction of flu mutations can be predicted and that a vaccine can be prepared in advance of the flu's mutation. It sounds to me like they are testing his theory in hopes that he is right and that we will be able to have a vaccine ready before it makes the mutation naturally. I will admit that this is a guess, but it seems to fit the description.

Of course, maybe all of you would be happier if nothing was done, and then you could really be happy because you would have a lot to complain about later.

[Occulus]

14. I would *really* like that to be true

and I hope it is; the qestion becomes, do we know enough about genetics and mutations of this particular virus to predict in advance what those mutations might be? Seems to me it was not too long ago that we finally fully sequenced the human genome, and although a single virus is much simpler, it's also a very very complex thing to be playing with.

Oh, ye researchers.... do be careful. Please.

[sharonking21]

16. Yes, this is almost certainly what it is for

What everyone needs to understand is that almost any legitimate scientific research on microbes CAN potentially be used for bioweapons. That does not mean that it IS being used for that. To stop the mere potential for abuse you would have to stop all research. Believe me, you do not want that. Please see my comments in the thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1337237

I would guess that the flu is far too volatile to make a good bioweapon--whoever sets it loose will, eventually, almost certainly find themselves and their cohorts or populations dying of adult respiratory distress syndrome. Good bioweapons are controllable and the flu ain't it.

That does not mean that some idiot operating mostly alone won't try do it, but the implication here seems to be that the CDC is up to no good. I doubt it.

I used to snort when I saw episodes of the X-files that had CDC scientists engaged in nefarious plots to infect people or when they showed photos of Janet Reno hanging on the walls of the bureaucratic villains, intimating that the government was heavily involved in making people sick.

I would worry a tiny bit about Fort Dietrich, given our past record on making bioweapons, but I do not think they are engaged in nefarious plots. Much more likely to be just doing research and storing up the intellectual capability and the cultured microbes for further use later if they are given the go-ahead

But to make large stores of weaponized microbes for bioweapons you have to have factories and storage facilities; while I suppose these could be contained within Fort Dietrich, in the past we needed many more facilities than that.

[Lori Price CLG]

18. Military intelligence warns that avian flu could be used as weapon: report

Military intelligence warns that avian flu could be used as weapon: report

The military's intelligence arm has warned the federal government that avian influenza could be used as a weapon of bioterrorism, a heavily censored report suggests.

It also reveals that military planners believe a naturally occurring flu pandemic may be imminent. The report, entitled Recent Human Outbreaks of Avian Influenza and Potential Biological Warfare Implications, was obtained under the Access to Information Act by The Canadian Press.

It was prepared by the J2 Directorate of Strategic Intelligence, a secretive branch of National Defence charged with producing intelligence for the government.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/WarOnTerrorism/2005/03/08/954295-cp.html

...LOL, so much for dismissing the concept of 'nefarious plots.'

Cheers,
Lori Price

[sharonking21]

23. Actually...

If you read closely it is says more or less what I said. It says that Canadian Military Intelligence recognizes that someone who doesn't care about killing their own people could use this for economic warfare. Anyone familiar with bioweapons could come to that conclusion and undoubtedly already has.

That hardly means that this is what CDC is doing nor is it evidence for nefarious plots here. This is just another example of the media hyping a story, as they always do, when it comes to something that will run a shiver up and down your spine and sell papers. They do it all the time regarding outbreaks or any discussion of new viruses, prions, etc--whether it is something naturally-occuring or a microbe that has recognized potential as a bioweapon.

[CoffeeCat]

25. Sharon, may I ask you a question...

...you obviously have some knowledge and expertise in this area.

Do you think that we should be worrying about bird flu?

Do you think we will have a worldwide pandemic affecting millions?

Thanks for any insight.

[sharonking21]

29. Yup.

I'm so tired right now, I cannot fully explain, but "Yes", we do have to at least worry. For a long set of comments explaining why I think so, please go to:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1337237

Sixty-two-year-old retired epidemiologist grandma's shouldn't blog all day--I'm a newbie and getting far too "into" this. I need some rest--please, someone, make me stop!.

[CoffeeCat]

30. Thanks Sharon! Get some rest...

...I'll look over your comments.

I know, blogging and posting can be addictive. Time flies and pretty soon it's 3:00 a.m. :)

Glad you're here.

Welcome to DU!

[GoddessOfGuinness]

62. Welcome to DU!

And thanks for your informative posts!

[sharonking21]

66. Thanks, Goddess

I appreciate all the folks who have made me feel welcome. Neat photo in your post--how did you get it in there? Would you loan him or her out for my kitchen? I'm in Texas and the ants in the kitchen have gotten to where they not only carry off the food and water--they've started coming after the cat as well.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

69. Haha...I've got the same problem!

Someone mentioned Grants Ant Spikes in another thread. Since I don't have an anteater, I guess I'll have to try them.

To post pictures from the web, simply type in the URL of the picture. This can be found by right-clicking on the pic, selecting "properties", and copying the URL. To post personal photos, you need an account with something like photobucket.com, which allows you to upload your pics to the web.

You can also use pictures' URLs in your signature line, found on your profile page.

Hope this helps! :hi:

[sharonking21]

70. It certainly does help. Thanks

I can't locate a help page here that would let me know this kind of stuff, so I REALLY thank you.

[ConcernedCanuk]

20. Remember the contaminated blankets the USA govt gave Native Americans?

.
.
.

They'll do it again in a heartbeat

to anyone

anywhere

count on it . .

[Name removed]

45. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Silverhair]

47. Just to say how much I appreciate you contributions.

This is a vital topic and I greatly appreciate the insights that your medical knowledge brings to DU.

[sharonking21]

59. Thank You

I appreciate the support. I am new here. Is the reference to GOP trolls intended for us? If so, just like to let people know that I am the devil's spawn of two rationalist leftist double-dog Democrats and I was probably out there fighting for one good cause or another when many of you were in diapers.

[Silverhair]

60. Probably, but don't let it bother you.

DU is very diverse. My own politics, using a football field as a standard, are about on the 45L line. But they actually varies greatly from issue to issue so that the 45L is an average. I have been accused of being to the right of Rush and Hannity by some here.

In addition to some real fruitcakes here, there are some really great thoughtful posters. And they will always be polite and strive to be informative. They are the ones that make DU a great place to spend time on. And on almost any issue, there will be somebody with some genuine expertise in it so that someone who wants to be well informed can get information, or good links to info here.

Just as the right has some people who are in the end zone, so do we. And from the perspective of the end zone, everybody else seems to be on the opposite side. In fact, we seem to have some that are playing on their own field and can't really be classified as Left or Right.

Hang in there, and if you stay as polite and as informative as you are, you will be well regarded by most of us.

I'm with you on the age thing. That's why I use the name I do. My first volunteer work was for the local JFK headquarters in 1960.

[Name removed]

63. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sharonking21]

67. Yard lines

Yeah, my first foray into politics was for JFK too. I was too young to vote, but was part of my campus Student Democrats. I think I must be on about the 33rd yard line--I suspect that my centrist Democrat friends think of me as being a radical and my progressive or populist Democrat friends suspect me of not being radical enough. And I know that a couple of my far-right Republican extended family members think I'm a "Commie-Pinko-Liberal" because they tell me so all the time. Sigh.

[ConcernedCanuk]

17. NO - I would not be happy if nothing was done, but for some reason . . .

.
.
.

I DON'T TRUST THE US GOVERNMENT!!

and no apologies for the caps on that one

[Lori Price CLG]

19. You said it, C.C.!! n/t

[Silverhair]

41. Your knee-jerk cynicism is NOT a substitute for rational thought. NT

[ConcernedCanuk]

58. well well, not sure what ya mean by that SH, but I figure it's not nice

.
.
.

I HAVE noticed your posts though, and I see you knocking down all sorts of other DUer's posts with pontifications and claims of some sort of expertise

so I won't lose too much sleep over it . .

however

I rarely see your statements with links and resources to back up what I see as somewhat outrageous claims.

"knee jerk cynicism" - indeed!!

Well that statement puts you in a very special category SH!

Gotta be the closest thing I've had as an insult since I joined DU

I'm somehow not surprised it came from you . . .

[Lori Price CLG]

71. Yup, send alerts on any posts by *obvious* lurkers. Eventually, ...

the Mods will get enough complaints, and ban the poster(s).

Lori Price

[Media_Lies_Daily]

74. So, does that mean YOU trust the US Government? Is that blindly,....

...or with some reservations?

[GHOSTDANCER]

24. Ya they better spend millions studying a flu that has killed 67 people.

And I'm old enough to recall a few things the US federal government has "accidentally" released onto it's population.

[sharonking21]

28. $$ for studying

Well, what is the alternative? The flu has the potential and even a great likelihood of becoming a pandemic that could wipe out millions. Further, the small number now means almost nothing; once a new radically mutated flu becomes easily transmissible between humans, it has the capability to spread exponentially since it is an airborne disease.

I too am old enough (62) to remember things that have been "let loose" by the government (especially the Serratia marcescens being sprayed over San Franciscans and the release of Bacillus subtilis into the subway system of New York City), but the CDC was not involved in that at all that I know of. Instead it was the military and intelligence arms, not public health.

I do not trust Bush a bit either, but also, I know that scientific standards about human experimentation have changed since these things were done and and since the CDC was involved in the Tuskegee Study. (I sat on the Committee on Research on Human Subjects at my state public health agency for a long time). While the people who work at Fort Dietrich might fudge this, I have more respect for those at CDC, generally. I also know their focus is generally very much oriented towards civilian public health, not military matters. Further I have had to deal with their Committee on Human Subjects and it is a bear.

Can you cite other instances (other than the smallpox blankets, of which I am already aware)--I'm interested.

[GHOSTDANCER]

53. I'm a big fan of allowing mother nature to balance herself out.

If a pandemic arises, which by all accounts will again <http://www.geocities.com/dtmcbride/hist/disasters-war.html> we may get what is coming to us. Humans continue to take themselves out of this loop which is wrong for the planet.

Creating a vaccine isn't always the safest thing either. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/314010.stm>

[NYC]

27. Let's hope that "ultra-secure laboratory" is in Antarctica.

Or the north pole.

[Hardrada]

33. Reminds me of The Satan Bug

Good flick, similar topic.

[Psephos]

36. The level of scientific ignorance on this thread is alarming

I'm not trying to be insulting. There's nothing wrong with not being up to speed on esoteric bioscience.

However, it's a different matter entirely when your unfamiliarity with epidemiology and pathogen microbiology give you carte blanche to dream up bioweapons plots with Karl Rove waving test tubes and laughing maniacally. I'm happy to slap down the repugs any chance I get but this dog don't hunt.

Science and politics use exactly opposite systems of determining truth. Science derives conclusions from experimental data and repeatable results; politics filters data based upon preconceived conclusions. Which one do you want driving our preparations for a potential outbreak of a killer mutation of avian flu?

The ultra-secure laboratory is ultra-secure in the biological containment sense, not the Dr. Strangelove sense. It is a Biosafety Level (BSL) 3 facility, with enhancements including negative air pressure environment, controlled access double-door entry with change room and shower, use of respirators, decontamination of all wastes, and showering out of all personnel.

The experiments are being conducted to determine how likely it is that the avian flu might spontaneously undergo the small mutation necessary for it to produce the hemigglutinin binding protein that would allow it to stick to host cells and destroy them (and so, kill its victims). This protein is a wild tumble of loops and chains, and can rapidly change its geometry with tiny mutations in the viral genetic code. The CDC scientists are trying to prod the avian flu to develop some similar protein configurations to the known killer flu bug of 1918. By measuring how easily these changes can be induced, they can gauge how likely it is the mutation may occur naturally. In other words, they're trying to assess the probability of an epidemic.

Furthermore, by understanding more about this protein variability, they may also be able to advance design of a possible treatment or vaccine.

Here's some (rather technical) info about hemigglutinin, with a picture of the protein, so you can see the chains.

http://www.chem.uwec.edu/Chem406_F97/Webpages97/heidi/INTRO.HTM

Here's a CDC webpage talking a bit about what they're doing.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/professional/han020405.htm

PLEASE. DO NOT use politically biased websites, whether right or left, to influence your understanding of scientific issues. Science and politics are not good bedfellows. The 1918 flu killed at least 20 million, and more likely, up to 50 million people. That's the same as dropping a hydrogen bomb on a dozen large cities. No effort should be spared to prevent another outbreak.

The CDC is about as apolitical as a government agency can get (no government agency is completely apolitical, of course), and they aren't a bioweapons lab. Bioweapons labs are run by the military.

Peace.

[truthisfreedom]

37. Absolutely, and if the military bioweapons labs were doing the same thing,

we sure as hell wouldn't be hearing about it.

[Deja Q]

39. Didn't Frankenstein's monster kill its creator, Frankenstein as well?

[Silverhair]

44. So do you want to stop all research?

What do YOU propose to be done. Get out of the knee-jerk cynics chair and give us some suggestions.

Or would you be happier if nothing was done, the flu mutated into a very contagious form, and a billion (Yes, a billion, WHO estimate) people died in a few months time? Then, if you survived, you would be able to really complain about how the CDC did nothing.

So, do we do research, or do nothing? Let's hear what you suggest.

[unhappycamper]

43. self-delete

i gotta remember to READ FIRST, STUPID!

[Megahurtz]

46. Ultra secure laboratory? Or Lab 257 at Plum Island?

I wouldn't be suprised if the U.S. is responsible for the original outbreak somehow.

http://www.nypress.com/17/11/news&columns/feature.cfm

http://www.rense.com/general28/truths.htm

http://www.gene-watch.org/genewatch/articles/14-3plumisland.html

Maybe??? Maybe not???:shrug:

[Silverhair]

48. Very, extremely, doubtful.

In what way would the US benefit from letting lose a disease that could kill a billion people? (WHO estimate) The US would not be able to escape from it. Our medical facilities would be overwhelmed and our own medical personnel would be hard it by it too. There is no motive.

Of course, to the dedicated tinfoil hatter, none of that matters. All that matters is the logic

P1. Bush is evil
P2. Something bad is happening
C. Therefore, Bush did it.

I am happy to say that W is NOT that all powerful.

[Megahurtz]

51. Sorry but,

I am not suggesting that they purposely did this. I don't see anything in my post that said this.

If you read up on Plum Island (internet searches, there's A LOT out there) you will see that possibly some germs accidently escaped there because of their lack of security of the facility. After all, Plum Island has been used as a biowarfare facility.

http://www.biomedcentral.com/news/20031022/04/

And you don't think that even the Government can be sloppy sometimes?

C,mon man! Do some reading!

[sharonking21]

68. Yes, accidental releases can happen

I am not familiar with the Plum Island material but I have read enough to know that it can happen. Many of the accidental releases in the US, not necessarily having to do with bioweapons research, occurred in academic laboratories in the past. Employees at least died as a result.

For that reason, much of this kind of research in the US done for the public good and public health is now done at CDC, where they have the best biocontainment facilities. I think someone else noted that the research being done on this virus is done in their Level-Three biocontainment lab. They go up to Level Four.

My 92-year-old Auntie, who has a Master's degree in biology and is blind now and in a nursing home, still maintains her interest in science. So, I go out there and read to her; right now I am reading her Anthrax: The Investigation of a Deadly Outbreak by Jeanne Guillemin. It is about the outbreak in the then Soviet Union caused by the accidental release of anthrax in Sverdlovsk in 1979, which probably originated from a bioweapons production (not research) facility there.

[Minstrel Boy]

54. A massive die-off looms this century, one way or the other,

and I suspect certain parties hope to "manage change."

But hey, call me a crackpot.

[Frederik]

55. I agree, happily

and there's no reason to think that this is anything but a natural outbrake of a natural virus, and that they're researching for a vaccine. As for bioweapons generally, I'll add the small qualifier that even if a bioweapon should be let loose by a branch of the US govt, or people connected to one, that does not necessarily mean Bush would have much to do with it. Unlike his father, I have the impression that he's a bit like Reagan; not really in charge of the important stuff.

Regarding the possibility of manufactured diseases, I was slightly puzzled by this remark by Kofi Annan in a press conference a couple of days ago:

"a much better chance of containing the spread of new infectious diseases, whether natural or man-made"

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2005/sgsm9772.doc.htm

Only that one sentence, but from it I gather that the UN are seriously considering the scenario of having to contain the spread of a "man-made" infectious disease.

[Lori Price CLG]

56. OMG, that is amazing... thanks for the post and the URL! n/t

[sharonking21]

57. Reference to man-made

Kofi Anan was just recognizing the fact that many countries have experimented with bioengineering in order to make bioweapons more effective and more targeted. I think he was using the term "man-made" to refer to practices of genetic engineering to make microbes more virulent, hardier, etc. Other things are done (not just bioengineering) to turn regular bugs into weapons. Things like coating the agent with substances that make it disperse more readily or hang in the air longer, whatever.

In all of these discussions, I am not trying to belittle the fact that bioweapons exist nor that they represent a danger. I was on the bioterrorism response and planning team for my state health agency. Make no mistake about it: I'm thoroughly against biological warfare in any form.

However, I am trying to make people realize that (1) it is unlikely that CDC is involved, (2) you cannot shut down all research just because there is a potential there for misuse, and (3) there is no reason to resort to conspiracy theories because the abject and scary reality of bioweapons is already "out there" for anyone to see.

Further, in some ways I think that the overemphasis on terrorism and fear, (whether in relation to what some people think of as plots by Bushites, the military, whatever--or fear of countries we may or may not be friends with or to Al Qaida et. al. re: bioweapons) is leading us into a state of paranoia where we are diverted from keeping our eyes on things that represent even greater and more reality-based threats.

One of these is seeing our democratic form of government slip away from us as we cower in fear of bogeymen, within and without. Another is the distortion of funding into mad attempts to remove all risk to us from terrorism from outside the US. Further, fear makes people, unthinking people to be sure, condone things like invading Iraq.

[Frederik]

64. You make good points.

[Lori Price CLG]

50. Yuppers! I have my own suggestions on where they can build the...

...'ultra secure laboratory' --- like, (for once) maybe in their own backyard? LOL! That way, if the laboratory suddenly becomes less-than-secure, guess who is first to deal with the repercussions?

Cheers,
Lori Price

[Megahurtz]

52. Sounds like a plan.

;)

[XemaSab]

61. Wow! What a terrific idea!

/sarcasm

[LifeDuringWartime]

65. for some reason,

i am glad to be in france even more than i already was!:tinfoilhat:

[sharonking21]

72. Avian flu of some kind in North Korea now

See below:

North Korea reports outbreak of bird flu for first time, claims no spread to humans

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20050327-0625-nkorea-birdflu.html

[Theres-a]

73. kick