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Brazilian economist Luciano Wexell Severo writes: Almost three years after the failed coup d'etat and seven months after the recall that ratified Hugo Chávez as President until 2007, Venezuela seems to have consolidated the economical reactivation that started one year ago. During the second semester of 2004, the GDP increased 13.6% compared to the same period last year, inflation dropped 4.8% and unemployment 3.6%.
The private sector also showed an increase of 16.1%, while the public sector increased 5.9%. The higher growth rates were construction (28,2%), commercial activities (27.1%) and manufacturing (25.7%).
Recovery started during the forth quarter of 2003, as a consequence of the effective nationalization of the state-owned oil company PDVSA and also due to currency exchange controls and price fixation of basic products.
The Minister of Planning & Development, Jorge Giordani, said "the national productive areas continue on a positive trend, with stability in exchange rates and increase in foreign reserves. Let's leave behind bad wishes from disaster prophets and forget their selfish interests". According to him, Venezuelan economy will have an average growth of 6% during the next two years, which is also the remaining period of President Hugo Chávez.
Unemployment rate is now the lowest in the last three years: in August, it was 14,2% of the economically active population, or 1.7 million people, with expectations for it to drop to 10% by the end of the year, together with a reduction in the informal sector. Inflation from January to August was 14.1% compared to 18.9% during the same period in 2003. On a yearly basis, prices increased 21.9%, compared to 30.4% last year. This helped food, clothing and electrical sales.
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