Mar 12, 2005
China, Greenspan rub salt
in dollar wound
The US dollar was struggling near a two-month low against the euro on Friday as the market braced for fresh trade data that were likely to show a further widening of the trade gap. As if this weren't trouble enough for the besieged greenback, US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan stirred up the market Thursday night saying foreign investors would reduce their US asset holdings at some point, while new findings came to light that China is indeed doing so.
Saying he is not "overly" concerned about the record US trade gap or heavy consumer debt, Greenspan said the budget deficit gives him the shivers. The US current account deficit widened to a record US$164.7 billion from July through September, the most recent figures available, equivalent to 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). "Our current account deficit and household debt burdens do not strike me as overly worrisome, but that is certainly not the case for our fiscal deficit," Greenspan told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability, because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances."
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According to the high priest of finance, international investors have only modestly shifted their portfolios away from dollar assets so far. But he warned that they might at some point decide their portfolios are too dollar-centric, ominously adding that if the dollar keeps dropping, foreign exporters may start looking elsewhere.
Greenspan's comments came close on the heels of Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's startling remark on Thursday that Japan needs to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves, reviving fears of Asian central banks cutting their giant dollar reserves. Any move by Japan, which has the largest foreign-exchange reserve in the world ($840 billion), to reduce its dollar holdings could be disastrous for the greenback. The dollar has already been dropping against the yen for four straight weeks now. Koizumi's statement, though later qualified by his finance minister, will only prolong the agony.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GC12Dj01.html