Shiites, Kurds Reach Deal for Iraq Gov't

[Teaser]

Iraq's main Shiite party and a Kurdish bloc have reached a deal that sets the stage for a new government to be formed when the National Assembly convenes next week, officials from both sides said Thursday.

The deal calls for the government to begin discussion on the return of about 100,000 Kurds to the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk and talks about redrawing existing Kurdish regions to include the city in Iraq's new constitution.

This is bad news for the Sunnis. They are basically being cut out of Kirkuk now. Repatriating 100,000 Kurds will push Kirkuk's demographics back toward the Kurds, guaranteeing the Sunni's a lasting political impotence in the only city where they participate in significant oil revenue. The insurgents would be wise to put recruiting posters up all over Kirkuk.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Yeah, cuz two out of three ain't bad?

Imagine: Whites, Latinos reach deal on US government.

Oy, vey.

[GoCubsGo05]

2. It's better than the one out of three as it was before. n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. In much the same way

as sinking in a pool of quicksand is better than sinking in a pool of feces.

Congratulations!

[Inland]

3. It's the deal being cut:

Kurdish autonomy and control over oil fields in exchange for a constitution that will allow the Shiite majority to run the country without interference from minorities.

It might be freedom for the Kurds, and majority rule, but it ain't democracy.

[plasticsundance]

4. Don't forget about security and stability ...

This is the actual key issue that needs to be resolved, and one the Iraqi people are growing increasingly upset about ... as the elections have not delivered as promised. Yeah ... the people ... another key component for a Democracy.

And thus far ...

Currently on the front page of Reuters:

http://reuters.com/


Blast Kills at Least 19 at Shi'ite Mosque in Iraq

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) - An explosion that hit a Shi'ite funeral service in the mostly Sunni Muslim city of Mosul killed at least 19 people, a morgue official said.

One witness said the blast was inside a mosque. Ambulances kept bringing casualties to hospitals, witnesses said.

[alfredo]

11. Turkey will not like the Kurds in control of the oil fields

They fear that oil money will be funneled into the Kurdish resistance in Turkey.

[Inland]

13. Maybe. But what will they do, considering?

The US isn't going to allow a Turkish invasion, and once the Kurds have oil money--and they can probably secure the fields with their militia--they will be powerful enough to take care of themselves.

[alfredo]

14. The Kurds being powerful is not what the Turks want.

They have threatened to attack Kurdistan in the recent past. Just how closely allied with Iran will the Kurds be, or will there be friction between them?

[daleo]

15. Could the U.S. really stop a Turkish invasion?

Short of nuclear war, I mean. Certainly they could put plenty of pressure on Turkey, but if push came to shove I wonder what would actually happen.

[Inland]

18. I think the mere US presence is deterrent enough,

but even if not, the Kurds themselves are armed and organized into militias.

Remember, to prevent an independent Kurdistan, Turkey would have to invade AND STAY. Highly unlikely.

I am not sure what Turkey would have to gain: the Kurds have been de facto independent for over a decade, and the turks have learned to live with it.

[daleo]

20. I think it is not what they gain, as much as what they fear

The fear that the Turkish government has is that an independent Kurdistan will be the inspiration and ally of a breakaway Kurd province of their own country (and would likely join the Kurdish state carved out of northern Iraq). Fear of loss of territory and civil war can make a country act very unpredictably, as U.S. history has shown as well.

And it seems to me that a decade is the blink of an eye in middle eastern terms. Turkey fought the British Empire, Russian Empire, and Austro-Hungarian Empire among others. The American Empire would just be one more episode in their history. Recall that present day Turkey used to be the center of a pretty big empire itself.

[Wright Patman]

6. Arabs consider themselves

one nation spread across a number of artificial boundaries.

So do the Kurds, BTW.

The Sunni Arabs vastly outnumber the Kurds and Shiite Arabs if we look beyond just the imperially-drawn borders of Iraq.

It is my view that the Sunnis have only just begun to fight. There is really no way to keep Sunnis pouring over the borders for years to come as they attempt to regain control of the country they had dominated for hundreds of years.

[Chicago Democrat]

7. Breaking News: (Iraqi) Government to Be Formed

Thursday, March 10, 2005
Breaking News: Government to Be Formed
Bombing at Shiite Mosque in Mosul Kills 36

It has been announced that the Shiites and the Kurds have reached sufficient agreement to elect a government when the parliament meets on March 16. If true, this is very big news. It wasn't, however, a headline anywhere I looked on the Web. When I tried to check it at CNN I was informed for about an hour straight that Michael Jackson was late to court. I mean, it is outrageous that our supposed 24 hours a day cable news services baby-sit us this way with pablum.

In other news, a suicide bomber detonated a payload at a Shiite mosque in northeastern Mosul during a funeral, killing at least 36 persons. Elements in the guerrilla movement have been attempting to provoke a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites, but the increasingly powerful Shiites have consistently refused to be provoked in this way.

posted by Juan @ 3/10/2005 12:33:00 PM


http://juancole.com/

[Teaser]

8. Bad news for the Sunnis

if the agreement is as I presented it. Kirkuk is the match to this particular powder keg.

[ECH1969]

9. I don't exactly trust this and neither does the media

I will believe the agreement when I see it happen in a week or two.

[Gloria]

10. And what about the Turkomen in Kirkuk??

eom

[Amfortas]

12. what Bush effectively did was...........

to balkanize the region .... smart move (/sarcasm)

[daleo]

16. This may be the plan.

Same thing in Lebanon. If Arab countries are busy involved in low level civil war they can't be much threat to Israel, and can't have effective control over their oil resources. Simple disruption could be the PNAC policy, at least for the short term.

I am not saying it is a good policy, or an effective one though.

[bemildred]

17. This means civil war.

At the least.
Perhaps Turkey will choose to get involved as well.
It will be interesting to see what Muktada al Sadr does.
Yippee.
:puke:

[muriel_volestrangler]

19. Guardian link:

The redrawing of the regions will be incorporated into Iraq's new constitution, which it is hoped will be written by the end of the year.

Fuad Masoum, a member of the Kurdish coalition, said: "We agreed to solve the issue in two steps. In the first step, the new government is committed to normalising the situation in Kirkuk. The other step, regarding annexing Kirkuk to Kurdistan, is to be left until the writing of the constitution."

Ali al-Dabagh, a member of the Shia Political Council, which is part of the UIA, said: "We told them that the issues will be discussed as soon as the central government is formed."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1434947,00.html