STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 8 March

[ozymandius]

Tuesday March 8, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 318 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 85 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 141 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1199
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 7, 2005

Dow... 10,936.86 -3.69 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,090.21 +19.60 (+0.95%)
S&P 500... 1,225.31 +3.19 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.30% -0.01 (-0.14%)
Gold future... 435.80 +0.70 (+0.16%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[54anickel]

1. Hee-hee, nice toon again Ozy, and Good Morning to you and all!

It's another cold one here in WI, after 60 on Sunday, it's down in the teens this AM. Man, I'm itchin' for spring and getting the bike out again!

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning 54anickel and all!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's wintery in Atlanta this morning. I went out to feed the birds this morning at 7:20. The temp has obviously dropped since then.

Off to collect the wrapup...

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

2. A Liquidity-creating Juggernaut:

Last entry in the Credit Bubble Bulletin.

Check this little entry on the way down the page -

Dollar Consternation Watch:

March 2 – Financial Times (Steve Johnson): “The scale of the upward pressure on the renminbi was highlighted yesterday when the People’s bank of China revealed it spent $195bn on buying foreign currency last year. The figure was 40 per cent greater than in 2003 as hot money flows poured into China, with speculators gambling on a renminbi revaluation in spite of the country’s strict capital controls…the People’s Bank needed to counterbalance not only this hot money but booming foreign direct investment inflows.”


A Liquidity-creating Juggernaut:

snip>

I would like to refresh readers’ memories with respect to Mr. Greenspan’s recent comments on the GSEs and market distortions -

“…What concerns me is not what Fannie and Freddie have been doing in the securitization area, which they’ve been exceptionally effective – as indeed their competitors as well -- have created a very important element within the total financial system. And so let me just stipulate that that’s important, and that has got to be maintained and essentially to expand, if at all possible… they have, granted by the marketplace, a significant subsidy which enables them to sell debentures significantly -- at a significantly lower interest rate than their competition.”

I am, of course, quite sympathetic to Mr. Greenspan’s (tardy) appreciation for market distortions throughout the agency debt market. I will, however, part company with respect to his wholesome view of the securitization marketplace. Inarguably, the market’s perception of implicit government backing of GSE securitizations has and continues to play a momentous role in fostering insatiable marketplace demand. This has had a profound impact on both Credit Availability and the pricing of mortgage finance. I would argue as well that the entire arena of “structured finance” rests on the capacity for transforming pools of risky loans – especially real estate borrowings - into perceived safe and liquid securities. This incomparable championing of The Moneyness of Credit has nurtured history’s greatest marketplace distortion. Mr. Greenspan has no intention whatsoever of addressing this issue.

It has become a crowd-pleasing exercise to trumpet the economy’s hitherto resiliency to a litany of hurdles and setbacks. Flawed analysis has borne dogged complacency. And one cannot too often repeat that recognizing the commanding role played by contemporary finance and Credit system exuberance is critical to sound economic analysis. Yes, the structure of the economy has been radically altered by intense Monetary Processes. But this is much more a case of a strange service sector/finance/asset inflation economy, and certainly not some wonderful New Economy or New Paradigm. What is new is the economy’s dependency to rampant Credit growth, abundant liquidity and endemic speculation.

snip>

In the past, the Fed enjoyed monopoly power over the speculators, inciting them to purchase/leverage dollar securities almost on demand. Now, the massive pool of global speculative finance has its sights on myriad markets and asset classes. Over the past decade, the Fed and U.S. economy benefited handsomely from Credit inflation’s propensity to finance speculative buying of U.S. bonds, equities, and real estate prices. These days, Credit excess increasingly stokes global oil, energy, and commodity prices. For some time, the U.S. enjoyed an extraordinary liquidity advantage over the rest of the global economy. Today, in The Global Credit Bubble and Wildcat Finance World, we must bid for energy, commodities and things against a bevy of highly liquid competitors.

I would argue that the previous decade’s seemingly placid U.S. inflationary environment was an aberration borne of the disinflationary/asset inflation-centric/outperforming U.S. currency and markets world. Only asset inflation remains from the previous favorable backdrop, although this inflation is increasingly destablizing. Acute energy inflation (and looming shortages) and dollar fragility ensure that the era of seemingly riskless liquidity excesses has ended. And, importantly, the Fed awhile back relinquished its control over the liquidity spigot. This returns us to the securitization market, speculative finance and the issue of fragile “resiliency.”

more...


http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

[54anickel]

3. Asian Banks Reduce Share of Deposits Held in Dollars (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aQZ4mO8F8SHY&refer=asia

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Asian banks, including central banks, reduced the share of their deposits held in dollars in favor of the euro, yen and other currencies in the third quarter of last year, the Bank for International Settlements said.

The share of deposits denominated in the U.S. currency fell to 67 percent, from 81 percent in the same period in 2001, the Basel-based BIS said in its quarterly review published today. Total dollar deposits increased, it said.

``Does this signal a more general shift away from dollar exposure by the region as a whole? The evidence is far from conclusive,'' the BIS said. Dollar deposits ``continue to rise in absolute terms, suggesting, at most, that the currency shift is taking place at the margin.''

Indian and Chinese banks showed the biggest drop. The share of deposits in dollars was reduced to 43 percent of the total from 68 percent in the third quarter of 2001. Chinese lenders cut the share to 68 percent from 83 percent, the BIS said.

snip>

Formed in 1930, the BIS provides banking services for 120 financial institutions, including central banks. The figures don't include deposits made or held by Japanese banks.

more...

[54anickel]

4. U.S. Investment Income Trend Ominous for Dollar

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=TMIHH0NYYPJGKCRBAEKSFEY?type=reutersEdge&storyID=7830485

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The ongoing decline U.S. net investment income suggests further weakness for the dollar lies ahead, analysts said.

"I expect that will become a drag on the current account," and the dollar, said Binky Chadha, global head of currency research at Deutsche Bank in New York.

Net investment income is the difference between income earned by U.S. investors on assets abroad, and income on U.S. assets owned by foreigners, and is a component of the U.S. balance of payments' current account which measures income from trade, workers remittances, investment income and other items.

Even though the United States owns about $2.43 trillion fewer assets abroad than foreign investors own in the U.S., higher rates of return abroad than in the U.S. have meant net U.S. investment income has been positive in recent years.

Foreigners owned about $9.63 trillion of U.S. assets at the end of 2003, while U.S investors' holdings of foreign assets was worth $7.2 trillion.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Wall Street Chiefs' Pay Rises as Restricted Stock Awards Soar

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=azryCNxROB1I&refer=us

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street's top chief executive officers got their largest pay packages since 2000 after the five biggest independent securities firms posted record profits last year and handed out more restricted stock.

Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Stanley O'Neal was the best-paid for a second year, pulling in $32 million. Almost all of that came in restricted stock, which vests over time. Morgan Stanley's Philip Purcell, 61, got the biggest raise, a 45 percent jump to $22.5 million. Bear Stearns Cos. yesterday said James Cayne's pay fell 8.5 percent, excluding earnings from deferred compensation.

O'Neal, Cayne, Purcell, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Henry Paulson and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s Richard Fuld each have earned more than $100 million in five years, more than their counterparts at the largest industrial companies. Goldman and Merrill paid out more restricted stock in 2004 as regulators prepared to force U.S. companies to account for stock options as an expense starting this June.

``It's always good when senior executives get more stock because they're willing to put their money where their mouth is,'' said Alan Johnson, president of Johnson Associates, a New York-based compensation consultant. ``It tells you how optimistic they are about where the business is heading.'' :eyes:

More...

[54anickel]

6. GM Decline to Junk Yields Shows Waning Confidence in Automaker

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aqn29mYf1LeY&refer=us

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., struggling with declining market share and ballooning health costs, faces a growing menace that's making all its challenges more dangerous: rising interest expense on its debt.

Besides spending $5,349 per vehicle on consumer incentives last month, or 49 percent more than Toyota Motor Corp., GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner, 52, must pay more to lure investors to GM's bonds.

Interest expense at GM and its finance unit rose 26 percent to $11.9 billion last year, more than double the 11 percent gain in combined debt. By demanding higher yields, bond investors are signaling waning confidence in GM, the world's No. 2 corporate borrower outside the finance industry. Rising interest payments damage Wagoner's ability to invest in the redesigned cars, trucks and sport-utility vehicles he needs to stimulate sales and lift his credit rating, says Scott Colbert, who helps manage $7 billion in debt at Commerce Bank in St. Louis.

``We're not willing to think past five years with this company until we see a turnaround in their products, profit margins and sales,'' Colbert says. He's avoiding maturities on GM and Ford Motor Co. debt beyond 2009.

GM bonds already are trading at levels similar to companies whose debt is rated junk, the high-risk, high-yield category of corporate debt. Standard & Poor's rates GM bonds BBB-, one level above junk, because of stiffer automotive competition and rising medical costs for retirees. Bondholders like Colbert are watching for signs of a rating cut that would officially drop GM, the world's largest automaker, into junk status.

more...

[54anickel]

7. Gas prices take biggest leap since May, to $2 a gallon

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2005-03-07-gas-prices_x.htm

The price of gasoline jumped a hefty 7.1 cents a gallon the past week to a nationwide average $1.999 for regular grade, the highest in four months, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Monday.

That's the biggest one-week leap since a 7.6-cent increase in May during the run-up to a nominal record average $2.064 and was significantly more than the 4-cent rise EIA expected. (Video: Prices could go higher.)

Adjusted for inflation, gasoline would have to hit $2.973 to set a record. :eyes:

Last week's increase is the seventh largest since EIA began weekly reports in 1990. The biggest one-week increase in the nationwide average for regular gasoline is 12 cents in late-August 2003.

In the wake of the big increase, EIA now agrees with energy watchers' predictions of record gas prices this month, although the government continues to suggest it won't be as high as the analysts' predictions of $2.16 a gallon or more.

more...

[RawMaterials]

8. Wall Street Expected to Open Lower

LONDON (Reuters) - Wall Street was expected to open lower with Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN - News) seen particularly weak after the chip maker trimmed its quarterly profit.

snip...

On Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - News) closed down 3.69 points, or 0.03 percent, at 10,936.86. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) was up 3.19 points, or 0.26 percent, at 1,225.31. The Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) was up 19.60 points, or 0.95 percent, at 2,090.21.

If the Dow Jones is to breach the psychologically important resistance level at 11,000 points then volumes may have to improve.

"They (investors) must give the impression they are there for the long haul or these markets could retrench," said David Buik, a spokesman for Cantor Index.


http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050308/markets_stocks_us_europe_1.html

[54anickel]

9. We don’t need no stinkin’ renters

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

The builders, at least the builders of those houses not yet sold, must have cheered the news last week. According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise and Oversight (which is cursed, by the way, with the awkward acronym OFHEO, which instead of reminding us of the American Dream of Homeownership, sounds like something one of the Seven Dwarves might exclaim after a mining accident), home prices last year rose at their fastest rate since 1979. That’s 1979, a year so long ago it predates junk bonds, CNBC and Eminem. Who would have thought that the era of the Landau roof could make a person weepy with nostalgia?

For the record, the average price increase last year came in at more than 11%.

Other news last week solved a housing mystery, that mystery being who it is buying all these houses. So many are being sold it’s as if homes are now like cars, that is to say, every family needs more than one. And that’s exactly the case! According to the National Association of Realtors, investors and second home buyers accounted for 36% of last year’s transactions – 23% were the investors and 13% just wanted another house, ostensibly for vacations.

snip>

Despite the large numbers of newly converted real estate investors, and their absolute faith in real estate profits, a recent analysis by the Economist concludes that today’s real estate market is providing unusually poor returns. Of course those returns are based on the old-timey relationship between rents received vs. prices paid. The Economist figures that the former hardly justify the latter. In fact, home prices are at record levels vs. rents in America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. And that’s despite a certain Fed chairman’s declaration that a real estate bubble, like politics, is always local.

snip>

My own sophisticated analysis (which includes a three minute conversation with the renter down the street, two beers and a Magic 8-ball), concurs. The neighbor says that his landlord is getting killed on the house he’s renting from him. After making random repairs and increasing offerings to the tax gods, the landlord claims that there’s no “cash” in his property’s cash flow statement. The landlord confided that if he’s going to realize any return, he’s going to have to do it the new fangled way – by selling to another investor.

A few spoil sports have begun to point out that this kind of thing has happened before. Real estate trend watchers Integra Realty Resources told the New York Times that it took the South Florida market seven years to recover from the 1986 plunge in real estate values.

more...

[54anickel]

12. Risky real estate moves

Put nothing down and don't worry much about monthly payments -- what's the worst that can happen?
http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/07/real_estate/financing/riskyloans/index.htm

SALEM, Ore. (CNN/Money) – The American spirit of "buy now and pay later" - or never -- has been a driving force behind this unprecedented housing market.

Gone are the days of saving a hefty down payment and striving to pay off your house in 30 years. Today, the typical first-time home buyer or vacation-home buyer might finance the entire cost of the house and pay only the interest owed on the loan for the first several years.

The latest option? A monthly "minimum payment" that doesn't even cover the interest.

Judging by historically low default rates, homeowners have been able to handle their growing debt burdens. Then again, they've been experimenting with more aggressive financing in the best of all times, when interest rates remain low and home prices continue to appreciate.

"Mortgage markets have been so flush with cash that home buyers are able to layer one risk on top of the other," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates. "It's possible to borrow more than the value of the home, put in no money of your own and pay a minimum monthly payment."

What's the worst that can happen, you ask? Consider the danger with three increasingly popular loan structures.

Not too mention the attempt to change the bankruptcy laws going on right now. :eyes:

more...

[KayLaw]

33. Shocking article

Really, I had no idea such things were going on. Borrowing more than the houses worth with no money down and paying no principle and only part of the interest? You call that ownership?!? No wonder home "ownership" is so high, for Pete's sake! That's just plain crazy!

[RawMaterials]

14. True so true I rent my 2 bedroom

apt for 500$, a 2 bedroom house in the community i live in would go for about 170,000. I'm almost sure :eyes: that 500 a month would not cover my mortgage, insurance and taxes. so i sit and wait and save waiting for the "crash" so i can swoop in and get a house on "sale". :hi:

[happyslug]

34. For comparision, Johnstown is NOT particpating in this Housing Boom.

And my landlord can't rent his apartments for $300 a month (Plus Utiltities). A local Bar with attached Hotel has a problem renting its rooms out for $250 per month (Which includes Utilities and Cable, it is an old fashion early 1900 bar with hotel rooms, baths/Shower are communal not individual per room).

Here are some of out houses and what they are going for (yes we have habitable housing for $2000, not the latest and greatest but habitable):
http://www.johnstownrealestate.net/

[54anickel]

10. Dollar Watch (Yoo-Hoo, UIA - where the heck are you these days?)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 82.49 Change -0.30 (-0.36%)

Settle 82.79 Settle Time 00:32

Open 82.67 Previous Close 82.79

High 82.75 Low 82.44


The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.76. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8187 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.38 are needed before a short-term low can be confirmed. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.

The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low that led to a breakout above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.343. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last Friday's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 133.395 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.192 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.



Dollar Down Against Euro
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050308/euro_dollar_1.html

BERLIN (AP) -- The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro Tuesday as a lack of major U.S. economic data kept financial markets uncertain on the dollar's trend.

snip>

Currency markets are likely to continue being driven by official rhetoric throughout most of this week, with only a light lineup of U.S. data until a trade deficit report is released Friday.

The report could focus attention back on the U.S. economy's longer-term structural problems that have played a big part in driving the dollar lower.

The euro soared from about US$1.20 in September to an all-time high of US$1.3667 at the end of December on concerns over the growing U.S. budget and trade deficits.

more...


USD Drops in Data Vacuum, AUD at 13-month high
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The dollar fell across the board in a vacuum of data releases amid some bearish comments made by economists regarding the world economy in light of rallying oil prices and the comments from OPEC officials calling $80 pb oil a possibility in case of disruption to supplies. Although US crude prices are off yesterday’s 4-month high of $53.92 per barrel, traders are increasingly talking of $60 oil as early as this month. Today’s murder of an Iraqi Interior Ministry official was claimed by Al-Qaeda may also maintain oil prices supported as it further highlights the destabilizing forces to oil and order.

Traders are also lightening their hand off dollars ahead of Friday’s trade figures from the US, which could show a bounce in imports and a renewed rise in the trade imbalance at $59 billion in January, nearing a record high. Higher oil imports are once again seen as the catalyst.

Aussie breaches 79.60

Concerns of persistently high oil prices in the US combined with renewed chances of a tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, fuel the Aussie past the 79.50 resistance to 79.68 high, the highest since February 2004. Wednesday evening’s (NY Time) employment figures are expected to show the unemployment rate up at 5.2% from 5.1% with the payrolls flat. Any surprising dip in the jobless rate could trigger the Aussie past the 79.50 cent high.

A breach above 79.60 sees pressure at 79.85 followed by extreme pressure at 80.10. Support starts at 79.30, followed by 79 and 78.62—50% retracement of the drop from the 79.57 high to the 77.70 low.

USDJPY testing 104.70s

more...



Dollar Hit Despite Strong Payrolls
http://www.forexnews.com/AI/default.asp

US non-farm payrolls rose 262,000 in February from a revised 132,000 reading in January, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.4% and average hourly earnings grew 0.3% from 0.2%. The payrolls followed an aggregate downward revision of 7,000 jobs in December and January.

The payrolls figure overshot our expectations of a 170K rise due to unexpectedly broad job creation, even in the manufacturing sector, which produced its first net increase of jobs since August.

snip>

Unusual reaction in dollar and bonds

The sell off in the dollar and the rally in Treasuries were best explained by the emergence of “whisper” expectations of as much as 300K in Thursday. There was constant reference to low weekly jobless claims. Indeed, the 4-week average figures totaled 1.24 million in February, the lowest in 4 ½ years. The broad increase in both of the ISM employment indices continued to show expansion, specifically in services. This boosted “unofficial” forecasts to as high as 300K, hence the disappointing reaction. The 262,000 number was clearly above estimates of 220,000 and the highest in 4 months.

We cannot exactly attribute the dollar’s selloff in the face of the strong report to an emerging dollar weakness mainly because of the rally in the Treasuries, whose 10-year yield slipped to 4.31% from 4.37%. It would have been more of an anomaly if treasuries sold off and the dollar declined. Today’s market reaction means that traders deemed the report to be lacking sufficient strength reflected in the various employment-related data of the past 4 weeks.

Barring the element of expectations--which was mainly instrumental in the market reaction--today’s nonfarm payrolls clearly support the Fed’s intentions to raise interest rates back towards 3.00% by late summer. But we expect the dollar’s outlook to continue hinging on the trade deficit and the extent of its widening as well as the financing pace from foreign capital flows.

Good Grief!!! Did this analyst not read the actual report? The devil was again in the details. :eyes:


edit to add this post regarding the actual jobs report - easier than trying to rehash it again.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1287356&mesg_id=1288598

[54anickel]

15. The Politics Behind the US Dollar

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge030805.html

The condition of the U.S. Dollar is perhaps one of the least thoroughly reported on topics in the press today. Sure, you will read the daily article rehashing a load of ambiguous language uttered by some central banker or government official. And you may even come across the occasional news story of how a particular currency's movement has affected an industry such as tourism or textiles. But what you will never read about is the vicious clandestine battle being waged by various governments and interest groups around the world.

Because the U.S. Dollar acts as the world's reserve currency, any sudden drop or rise in its value creates winners and losers. And if the status quo (in terms of the Dollar's value) is achieved, yet another list of winners and losers is produced. This is why politicians and government officials would prefer to downplay the issue altogether - no need to make new enemies. That being said, the Dollar's drop over the last few years is slowly creeping into the national debate. What is fascinating about the topic of the Dollar is how the issue cuts across party & international lines and creates a series of strange alliances.

snip>

One last constituency who has a major stake in the future of the Dollar is the average Joe Six Pack. But his position is contradictory. On one hand, being the over-consumer that he is, Joe loves a strong Dollar because he can buy his plasma screen television at a good price. And because the strong-Dollar environment has created low interest rates over the last decade, Joe can finance his new purchase at rock-bottom rates. On the other hand, Joe is in debt up to his eyeballs and doesn't know how he'll ever be able to pay off his credit cards. Dollar weakness would help inflate Joe's debt away over the coming years with minimal pain.

So who will win and who will lose? Warren Buffett, one of our investing heroes, has just come out with his most recent annual letter where more than two full pages are devoted to warning his readers about America's alarming trade deficit. He points out that the "force-feeding of American wealth to the rest of the world is now proceeding at the rate of $1.8bn daily" and that America's trade policies are turning it into future a "sharecropper's society". Buffet, who blames both political parties for our current situation, has made a large bet against the U.S. Dollar ($21.4 billion in foreign exchange contracts at year-end spread among 12 different currencies). It's hard to argue with a man who has $40 billion reasons to think he is right. Over the long run, we agree that absent large changes in trade policies, the U.S. Dollar is toast.

more...

[54anickel]

19. Buffett deepens dollar worries

Not sure if this was posted yesterday or not, and frankly, I'm too lazy to check. :evilgrin: If it was, I apologize for the redundancy.


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/14d1fb9c-8da0-11d9-a4d2-00000e2511c8.html

Warren Buffett has warned that the US trade deficit risks creating a “sharecropper’s society” as his letter to shareholders sounded an increasingly bearish tone about the value of the dollar.

The billionaire fund manager said his own performance as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway was “lacklustre” because he struck out in his quest for new investments. Annual results showed the book value of Berkshire shares underperformed the stock market for the second year in a row while full-year profits fell 10 per cent.

snip>

“A country that is now aspiring to an “Ownership Society” will not find happiness in – and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis – a “Sharecropper’s Society,” added Mr Buffett. “But that’s precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us.”

Nevertheless, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive conceded he did not do his job very well last year in finding ways to profit from the unusual market conditions.

“My hope was to make several multi-billion dollar acquisitions that would add new and significant streams of earnings to the many we already have. But I struck out,” he said “Additionally, I found very few attractive securities to buy. Berkshire therefore ended the year with $43 billion of cash equivalents, not a happy position.”

more...

[54anickel]

21. U.S. dollar falls broadly against rival currencies

Ahhh, yes - March and the fiscal year end for Japanese corporations. Remember when we were watching Yenitics (or something like that)?


http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1110291272-d8260f08-30709

CHICAGO (AFX) -- The dollar remained lower against the yen Tuesday, falling beginning in Asian trading as Japanese exporters continue to repatriate profits back into their home currency ahead of the fiscal year end. Selling of euro-yen by European accounts was also said to be pressuring dollar-yen. The dollar was quoted at 104.89 yen, down 0.2 percent from where it stood in late U.S. trading Monday. The greenback fell 0.2 percent against the euro, with the common currency last fetching $1.3243. The British pound was worth $1.9223, a gain of 0.4 percent against its U.S. counterpart

[54anickel]

26. ZOWIE!!! Where the heck is the buck off to today - dropping like a rock

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 82.07 Change -0.72 (-0.87%)

Settle 82.79 Settle Time 00:32

Open 82.67 Previous Close 82.79

High 82.75 Low 82.02

[ozymandius]

37. 12:49 dollar update

Currency
Last Trade
1 U.S. $ =
104.6300 yen
0.7500 euro
1.2143 loonie

[whatelseisnew]

30. China OK's trading of foreign currencies (U.S. dollars for euros)

from NNN0LHI in LBN thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1293795

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D88MNT280.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

Mar. 8 5:29 AM EST

China will allow limited trading of foreign currencies -- such as U.S. dollars for euros -- beginning in May as it loosens tight market controls, Dow Jones Newswires reported Tuesday.

more

[ozymandius]

13. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Let's Get Fictional

Delusions, errors and lies are like huge, gaudy vessels, the rafters of which are rotten and worm-eaten, and those who embark in them are fated to be shipwrecked. Buddha

We live in the Information Age. News travels at the speed of sound and communication is instantaneous. We are bombarded each day with facts and figures about the economy, the markets, and the world around us. In this world of facts and figures one must learn to distinguish between perception and reality. Part of what we see and hear is fact, part is half truth and the rest is fictional. All is not what it appears to be.

The 1990s were described as a “new era” for the American economy. The economy grew at above-average rates driven by technological change and innovation. American companies restructured and became more efficient and productive. The result was an explosion in earnings. The public was sucked into the market by new economic theories that stood basic economics on its head. On Wall Street stocks were always a buy and according to the experts, the markets always went up. Our stock market delivered double-digit gains for the last five years of the decade, which further supported the “new era” thesis.

The 1990s “new era” turned into a bust. Much of what was heralded as a new economic paradigm turned out to be an illusion. It was created with statistical wizardry by government number crunchers and corporate accountants. Statements about the U.S. economic miracle of the 1990s omit several embarrassing details: the expansion of the nation's money supply, the explosion of consumer and corporate credit, gigantic trade deficits, and our dependence on massive amounts of foreign money.

-cut-

Myth #1  Stellar Corporate Earnings

The corporate scandals are supposedly behind us after three years of reforms. After Sarbanes Oxley, earnings are suppose to be more transparent. However, the reforms initiated by Congress and the SEC did not remedy the situation. Today earnings are as susceptible to manipulation as ever. The reason is that our present accounting system is based on accruals, which give companies wide discretion in using estimates to calculate their earnings. Accrual accounting is supposed to give shareholders a more accurate picture of what is going on in a business at a particular time. Accrual accounting allows a company to allocate revenues to a specific period to better reflect when the sales were made not when the actual sales dollars were received. In a similar way with expenses they can be allocated to a period when the sale was made and not when the money was actually spent.

-cut-

Why These Distortions?

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Too much good stuff here. One should digest Puplava's take on the major economic myths we are offered as truths.

[MARALE]

22. Thanks Ozy

I really enjoyed this report! I have heard many of these myths, but having them together is great. Notice when they started playing with the numbers? It was after 2000. I have always thought things are worse than they seem, now I know why.

[54anickel]

29. Another excellent wrap-up by Puplava today...n/t

[RawMaterials]

16. Pre-Market Blather

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Expectations for a lower start for the cash market remain intact as technology appears poised to show little follow through on the heels of TXN's disappointing mid-quarter update, mixed earnings reports, few upside catalysts and no economic releases to provide early momentum

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Futures trade ticks a bit higher but still indicates the indices will open modestly lower... While there are no major earnings releases this morning, the results have been mixed from what few S&P components have reported... Both CMS and CNP have beaten expectations, but KR has missed forecasts by $0.07 and issued downside FY06 guidance while THC has reported a narrower than expected loss but guided flat to slightly higher FY05 revenue growth

8:30AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Cash market still poised to start the day on a lower note as the futures market retains its negative bias... Reports suggest that Biogen Idec (BIIB) has been accused of providing illegal discounts to doctors to boost product sales while AIG is making headlines again regarding a transaction discrepancy... Qualcomm (QCOM) has announced a new CEO, boosted its dividend 29% and doubled stock repurchases to $2 bln while reports suggest Delta (DAL) is in talks to sell one or both of its regional subsidiaries...

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures market suggesting a lower open for the cash market as investors sift through a small batch of earnings reports and maintain a watchful eye on chip stocks but have no economic data to digest... Texas Instruments (TXN) should be in focus after narrowing the upper end of its previous revenue and EPS forecasts while Intel (INTC) has been warned by Japan's Fair Trade Commission to remove some incentive clauses from sales contracts...

Oil prices have fallen roughly 1.0% in pre-market trading but have so far failed to act as a supportive factor for stocks

6:17AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0.

6:16AM : FTSE...5016.70...-10.50...-0.2%. DAX...4418.03...-10.06...-0.2%.

6:16AM : Nikkei...11886.91...-38.45...-0.3%. Hang Seng...13881.71...+109.76...+0.8%.

[RawMaterials]

18. 9:50 EST Numbers and blather

Dow 10,929.54 -7.32 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,092.19 +1.98 (+0.09%)

S&P 500 1,223.71 -1.60 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 43.64 +0.60 (+1.39%)

NYSE Volume 125,492,000
Nasdaq Volume 181,203,000



9:40AM: Stocks open with little fanfare as yesterday's rally in technology initially stalls amid new forecasts in the chip space... Texas Instruments (TXN 26.81 -0.56) has narrowed Q1 earnings to $0.22-0.24, versus prior guidance of $0.22-0.26, and revised revenues to $2.91-3.03 bln, versus previously higher forecasts of $2.9-3.15 bln, citing lower than expected demand for chips used in TVs and projectors... The analyst community, however, has not read too much into TXN's revisions, as the shortfall appears to be isolated in the projector/TV side and in the LCD driver business which TXN plans to exit...

But buyers early on remain somewhat tentative as they await mid-quarter updates from XLNX (tonight), ALTR (tomorrow) and INTC (Thurs.)... SOX +0.4

[54anickel]

17. Privatize This (USPS)

Good Lord, don't get me started on the USPS. While my heart bleeds for the employees that may see drastic cuts and changes in their employment, I've recently lived through a nightmare with the USPS - 22 days delivery of time sensitive material that I was assured would take 5-7 days, followed by a promise of 9-13 days, followed by an explanation of 9-13 days - sometimes even longer. :eyes:


http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/ryan200503070740.asp

It's time to privatize the U.S. Postal Service. We no longer need a federal agency to deliver our junk mail. The facts are plain. Even with a locked-in monopoly, the USPS can't make ends meet. Its accounting is so murky and convoluted it makes our Enrons and WorldComs look like models of financial transparency. We mail-users — and ultimately taxpayers — end up paying through the nose for the increasingly obsolete privilege of "universal service," i.e., six-day-a-week delivery to every household in the nation.

If USPS were a private company, now would be the time to get serious about cutting costs and downsizing. Instead, the organization plans to do what it always does when the going gets tough — raise stamp prices. Last month, USPS took the first step when its board of governors directed management to file for an increase, which will probably hit stamp buyers in early 2006.

If USPS were a competitive company — as opposed to bloated federal bureaucracy — stamp prices would be falling, not rising. Despite new technology — like modern reader/sorters that process over 30,000 pieces of mail per hour — stamp prices have risen with inflation since 1970. Imagine if the price of a phone call or sending an e-mail rose with inflation for 30 years.

USPS is simply unable to capitalize on its multibillion-dollar technology investments, or on its massive economies of scale. A December study by leading experts of the Postal Rate Commission notes: "The doubling of overall volume coupled with scale economies should have resulted in the average price of the stamp dropping in real terms."

more...

[54anickel]

20. ARE AMERICANS IGNORING COMPLETE FINANCIAL DISASTER?

http://www.newswithviews.com/NWVexclusive/exclusive88.htm

Economists and precious metals experts throughout the country who track market indicators and money trends worldwide, are wondering why the American people continue to ignore what they call "hard facts" that America's "recovering" economy is nothing more than a smokescreen to cover up the continued "borrowing to spend" practices of Congress. These experts warn that when the bubble finally bursts, it will make 1929 look like a walk in the park.

snip>

Tension in currency and stock markets last week were prompted over Sir Alan Greenspan's testimony in front of Congress and worries that a rise in inflation could promopt the nation's bank, the Federal Reserve to step up interest rate increases.

In his recent column, 'Four Fed Hikes and a Funeral,' Ron Kirby had this to say about one of the government's largest debt obligations:

"The myth of the social security trust fund died last week. The lack of candor not withstanding, on the part of his eminence – Easy Al Greenspan; enough layers of the onion were peeled back that it was revealed for once and for all – more rotten onion. Actually, for those who could still bear to watch and listen without crying, they learned that the system is, in fact, worse than broke. Admittedly, a heck of a lot of folks still don’t get it. This fact is pointedly articulated by Jim Puplava in his Financial Sense Newshour and his take on Alan Greenspan’s semi annual testimony to law makers up on Capitol Hill last week. Listening to the Big Easy explain the state of solvency to the esteemed Congresswoman-D, N.Y., Carolyn Maloney last week provided us all with conclusive evidence as to the lengths he will go to – to twist, pervert and otherwise obfuscate our reality. I use the term “our reality” only because I know, in my heart of hearts, the man really knows better."

snip>

Pros say their position is right on the mark and the worst is yet to come. Before the crash in 1929, the premier economists of the time who supported the monetary policies of the day, reassured the American people that all was well at Wall & Broad. History shows they were dead wrong. While most Americans believe the 1929 stock market crash caused the Great Depression of the '30s, others point to the actual cause being the Federal Reserve's manipulating the money supply during the 1920s and 1930s.

more...

[54anickel]

23. From Jobless to Wageless (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050307-mon.html#anchor0

Fully 39 months since the last recession ended in November 2001 and the American job machine finally seems to be back in gear. Hiring gains are still not spectacular when judged against earlier cycles, but as underscored by the 262,000 gain in nonfarm business payrolls in February, they have certainly been on the upswing over the past year. Unfortunately, the quality of hiring remains decidedly subpar -- dominated by those toiling at the low end of the pay spectrum. Moreover, an even bigger hole remains in the US labor market: Despite generally sharp increases in productivity since 1995, there has been no discernible pick-up in real wages. The character of America’s recovery has shifted from jobless to wageless -- with profound implications for both the economy and financial markets.

In the 12 months ending February 2005, US businesses added nearly 2.2 million workers to private nonfarm payrolls -- an average of 181,000 per month. Such vigor on the hiring front was last seen in the year of the Great Bubble -- specifically, back in September 2000, when the 12-month gain in private nonfarm payrolls was running at a 2.3 million clip. While recent job gains have been impressive, they have not exactly been concentrated in the cream of the occupational hierarchy. Industries leading the pack on the hiring front over the past year include (in descending order): administrative (temp-dominated) and waste services (385,000), health care and social assistance (332,000), construction and real estate (321,000), and restaurants (257,000). Collectively, these four industry groupings, which employed 36% of all US workers on private nonfarm payrolls a year ago, accounted for fully 60% of the total growth in private hiring over the most recent 12-month period. Apart from the obvious impact of the housing bubble on relatively high-wage employment in real-estate-related activity, the industry mix of the hiring dynamic remains skewed toward the lower end of the US pay structure.

That takes us to the missing link in the long and arduous healing of the US labor market -- the lack of any meaningful growth in real wages. Despite all the fanfare over jobs, the February labor market survey underscored an extraordinary development on the real wage front -- average hourly earnings were unchanged in current dollars for the month and up a mere 2.5% over the past 12 months. The annual increase in nominal wages falls short of the rise in the headline CPI (3.0%) and only fractionally exceeds the core inflation rate (2.3%). On an inflation-adjusted basis, average hourly earnings are no higher today than levels prevailing at the trough of the last recession in November 2001.

To be sure, the average hourly earnings sample is not the most accurate of the wage statistics in the US. The prize, in this case, has long gone to the more broadly based Employment Cost Index (ECI) tabulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ECI is a quarterly series and is only available with a lag; the monthly labor market statistics are timelier and often provide a good hint of what to expect from the ECI. And it turns out that both measures are basically telling the same story today. For workers in private industry, ECI-based wages and salaries were up only 2.4% in the 12 months ending December 2004 -- virtually identical to gains in average hourly earnings and 0.6% below the headline inflation rate. Moreover, the ECI points to a striking deceleration of wage inflation over the past year, with the current pace of 2.4% representing a marked slowing from the 3.0% pace in the prior 12-month period ending December 2003. Consequently, no matter how you cut it -- the ECI or more the more timely monthly data -- real wage stagnation is an undeniable feature of this economic recovery.

This development stands in sharp contrast with real wage patterns in earlier periods. This can best be seen by looking at cyclical patterns in average hourly earnings, a series that has a longer history than the ECI. In contrast with the real wage stagnation 39 months into the current recovery, real wages have normally risen 1-2% by this point in the past four business cycles. While that doesn’t sound like a huge bonanza for the American worker, it underscores one of the time-honored axioms of economics: Over the broad sweep of time, real wages are closely aligned with underlying productivity growth. Ironically, there was a tighter linkage in past cycles, when US productivity growth was running at only a 1.6% average pace over the 1970-95 period, than there has been in the current cycle, when productivity trends have accelerated to a more robust 3.1% annual pace in the post-1995 period. Obviously, something very unusual has gone on in the current cycle -- first a jobless recovery of record proportions and now an unprecedented degree of real wage stagnation.

more...

[54anickel]

24. The Bear's Lair: Instruments of Satan (Hedge Funds)

My apologies for the source

http://www.washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050225-020706-9695r.htm

Washington, DC, Feb. 28 (UPI) -- For anyone who DOESN'T think the stock and bond markets are currently hopelessly distorted, I recommend taking a long cold look at the hedge fund industry. It is a sobering spectacle.

Hedge funds, originally intended as unregulated investment pools for the very wealthy, have existed for decades but have increased rapidly in size since the bubble stock market of 1996-2000, with assets under management rising from $500 billion to $1 trillion since 2000, according to the Economist. The growth of hedge funds is primarily a result of the enormous computing power now devoted to arbitrage between different instruments, and the deep markets for derivatives contracts, that enable traders to take any risk position they deem appropriate. Access to hedge funds has been made easier for the only moderately well off through legally clever pooling schemes; thus the Securities and Exchange Commission dividing line, separating regulated mutual funds from unregulated hedge funds, sold only to large sophisticated investors, has become thoroughly blurred.

snip>

The next question is, why does this matter? Long Term Capital Management's collapse allegedly nearly brought down the U.S. economy in 1998, but Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan organized a bailout, so that potential disaster was avoided. No doubt if, as appears inevitable, there is another large crisis in the hedge fund industry, another bailout can be arranged, and so only the suckers who invested in the busted fund -- and their unfortunate probably unknowing fiduciary beneficiaries, if any -- will lose their shirts.

snip>

Given the amount of money involved it is likely that this investment, and not Asian central bank purchases, is the true support for the extraordinarily low yields in the Treasury bond market, now close to or even below the anticipated rate of inflation. The official consumer price index rose in the last 12 months by 3 percent; it does however significantly underreport true inflation, because of the hedonic pricing scam, so true consumer price inflation is now around 4 percent and rising -- which doesn't leave a lot of room for real yield on a 10 year Treasury yielding 4.2 percent.

On the equity side, hedge funds can also achieve a guaranteed return by arbitraging between stocks and futures, and can leverage it likewise. Here, however, there is an even more attractive possibility. If there is a speculative stock like Google or Sirius Satellite Radio, with relatively little "float" and no well established valuation, hedge funds can themselves move the stock price as far as they wish to, simply by borrowing money and investing it in the stock. With $1 trillion in hedge fund money, and relatively few popular speculative plays, it's almost a no-lose scenario, at least in the short term, which is all the hedge fund manager cares about. Eventually, the stock will crash and the hedge fund investors will lose their money, but not before the fund managers have accumulated quite a few nice 20 percents of the nominal profits -- which, of course, there is no question of them paying back when the profits turn into losses.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Report: States getting stuck with $30 billion federal tab

http://www.stateline.org/live/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=136&languageId=1&contentId=16909

The federal government will force states to pick up an extra $30 billion in expenses in fiscal 2006, mostly for education programs that Congress passed without providing enough resources to pay for them, the National Conference of State Legislatures predicted in a report released today (March 8).

NCSL complained that the problem of unfunded mandates -- programs dictated by Washington but not fully funded -- is a long-term burden only made worse by President Bush's recently proposed budget.

Its latest estimates are that federal programs shifted $25.7 billion in costs to states in fiscal 2004 and $25.9 billion in fiscal 2005, comprising 5 percent of states' general revenues in each of those years. Bush's latest budget proposal would raise the burden of federal mandates even higher, NCSL predicted.

Over the coming decade, states would have to pick up at least $300 billion in costs for federal programs, including $45 billion if Congress approves Bush's proposal to cut federal contributions to Medicaid, the state-federal health care program for 53 million poor and disabled Americans, according to the report.

Nearly two-thirds of the additional costs to states would be in the area of K-12 education, which accounted for the largest single share of states' spending until being eclipsed by Medicaid in 2004.

more...

[54anickel]

27. 10:40 - Ugh!

Dow 10,909.96 -26.90 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,082.43 -7.78 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,220.37 -4.94 (-0.40%)
10-yr Bond 4.363% +0.06
30-yr Bond 4.687% +0.07
NYSE Volume 372,368,000
Nasdaq Volume 481,289,000

10:30AM : Equities are now modestly on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Homebuilding (-1.6%) has paced the way lower as supply concerns in the bond market have lifted yields while technology remains weak across the board following TXN's disappointing mid-quarter update... Selling pressure in the online brokerage space has weighed on financial early on while weakness in drug and biotech has added pressure to health care... Continued profit taking in steel has pressured materials while utility, consumer staples and consumer discretionary have also traded lower...
Airline, however, has found modest buying interest after reports suggested the possible sale of Delta Air Lines' (DAL 5.37 +0.10) regional subsidiaries while energy has benefited from higher oil prices above $54/bbl...DJUA -0.8, DOT +0.1, SOX -0.6, XOI +0.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 971/1859, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1118/1566

10:00AM : Market still unable to gain much traction this morning following a mixed batch of earnings and guidance... Even though the majority of the S&P (96%) have reported quarterly results and there are no major releases expected for this week, guidance heading into warnings season remains a focal point for investors...

Earlier, Kroger (KR 16.86 -0.86) missed Q4 forecasts by $0.07 and expects FY06 EPS to "exceed" $1.16 (consensus $1.29) while Tenet Healthcare (THC 10.85 -0.18) beat forecasts by $0.03, with a smaller than expected loss of $0.06, but anticipates that net operating revenues in 2005 will likely be flat to slightly increased from the $9.9 bln it generated in 2004 (consensus $10.1 bln)... So far, roughly 65% of S&P companies have beaten forecasts while 16% have matched expectations and 19% have missed... NYSE Adv/Dec 1125/1285, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1310/1097

9:40AM : Stocks open with little fanfare as yesterday's rally in technology initially stalls amid new forecasts in the chip space... Texas Instruments (TXN 26.81 -0.56) has narrowed Q1 earnings to $0.22-0.24, versus prior guidance of $0.22-0.26, and revised revenues to $2.91-3.03 bln, versus previously higher forecasts of $2.9-3.15 bln, citing lower than expected demand for chips used in TVs and projectors... The analyst community, however, has not read too much into TXN's revisions, as the shortfall appears to be isolated in the projector/TV side and in the LCD driver business which TXN plans to exit...

But buyers early on remain somewhat tentative as they await mid-quarter updates from XLNX (tonight), ALTR (tomorrow) and INTC (Thurs.)... SOX +0.4

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Expectations for a lower start for the cash market remain intact as technology appears poised to show little follow through on the heels of TXN's disappointing mid-quarter update, mixed earnings reports, few upside catalysts and no economic releases to provide early momentum

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 991 (32%) 1150 (39%)
Declines 1876 (60%) 1607 (55%)
Unchanged 213 (6%) 152 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 101 (36%) 152 (37%)
Down Vol* 171 (61%) 246 (61%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (2%) 5 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 125 62
New Lo's 8 25

[54anickel]

28. Intel Warned by Japan Antitrust Watchdog

Heh, offering rebates - that's a lot kinder than what they were suppposedly doing to some of our Taiwanese vendors back when I was in the "bidness".

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=NPAKGODT0ABWUCRBAE0CFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=7836643

edit to add - hmmm, that link broke rather quickly - try this one
http://www.reuters.com/audi/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=7835338

TOKYO (Reuters) - Intel Corp.'s Japan unit tried to stifle competition in microprocessors by offering unfair rebates to personal computer makers, the country's antitrust watchdog said on Tuesday in a warning against the chip giant.
The warning was the Japanese Fair Trade Commission's second such action against a computer industry giant following a similar move against Microsoft Corp. last July.

Intel, the world's biggest microchip maker, immediately disputed the warning, which came with no monetary penalty.

After the FTC announcement, the European Commission said it was investigating Intel for possible antitrust violations in cooperation with Japanese authorities.

Japan's watchdog said the unit stifled competition by offering rebates to five Japanese PC makers that agreed either not to buy or to limit their purchases of chips made by Intel's rivals Advanced Micro Devices and Transmeta.

The FTC said such practices had been going on since May 2002 after the inflow into Japan of low-priced personal computers heated up competition in the domestic market.

more...

[54anickel]

31. At 85, factory worker still setting the pace

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/mar05/307450.asp

snip>

Last week, disregarding the "R" in AARP, the American Association for Retired Persons Foundation launched a nationwide employment initiative to help people 50 and older hook up with job skills assessments, training resources and 13 selected employers committed to hiring older workers. The objectives are to help mature job seekers and promote the value of older workers.

"It's recognizing something our society hasn't done a good job at recognizing, and that's the wealth of knowledge and experience and skill sets that older adults have," says Stacy Barnes, deputy director of the Wisconsin Geriatric Education Center, a consortium of academic and health organizations based at Marquette University.

Behind the AARP campaign is the projected drop-off of available workers as baby boomers start turning 60 next year. But there's also a growing sense that work provides meaningful activity beyond a paycheck and that more retirement-age Americans want to be working.

snip>

Martha Artiles, chief diversity officer for Manpower Inc., says the nation's largest staffing company teaches its managers the virtues of mature workers, including their loyalty, their work ethic and attention to quality.

"They come jam-packed with a lot of work and life experience that employers can really tap into," Artiles says. Older workers tend to have lower absentee and turnover rates, and they're great examples to younger workers, Artiles says.

"An experienced worker, when used correctly, returns the value 100 times over, in both productivity and professionalism," says Jeff Hynes, co-chairman of the Wisconsin Employment Lawyers Association.

In his own Wauwatosa-based practice, Hynes has seen a burgeoning caseload of older workers targeted for discharge by employers zealous to cut costs. He says he's encouraged by initiatives such as those at AARP, which includes Glendale-based Manpower as one of its featured employers.

more...

Getting us all geared up to work until we drop as no one will be able to afford to retire as inflation runs rampant and wages and social progams stagnate. :eyes:

[54anickel]

32. Rising Oil Prices Push Stocks Lower

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050308/wall_street_11.html

Rising Oil Prices, Disappointing Earnings Update From Texas Instruments Push Stocks Lower


NEW YORK (AP) -- A disappointing earnings update from Texas Instruments Inc. and rising oil prices pushed stocks lower Tuesday as investors began consolidating gains from Wall Street's recent rally.
After gaining ground in Monday's session, semiconductor stocks moved lower after Texas Instruments cut its earnings forecasts, leading investors to worry about increasing inventories and lagging sales in much of the tech sector.

With little other announcements and no economic data to report, oil prices were one of the few indicators available to investors, and the news wasn't good. Crude futures neared $55 per barrel in early trading, with a barrel of light ecrude quoted at $54.80, up 86 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"Because of the lack of other news, oil becomes the big news," said Brian Bruce, director of global investments at PanAgora Asset Management Inc. in Boston. "In aggregate, there's generally been more good news than bad news. But with nothing else going on today, you're seeing oil put a damper on everybody's enthusiasm."

snip>

Bonds fell along with stocks, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.37 percent from 4.31 percent late Monday. The dollar dropped against the euro and the Japanese yen, while gold prices edged slightly higher.

more...

[ozymandius]

38. Oil Nears $55 a Barrel on Weak Dollar

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices surged toward $55 on Tuesday as cold weather swept into the U.S. Northeast and the dollar weakened.

Growing signals that OPEC will not increase output at its meeting in Iran next week also bolstered prices.

-cut-

The dollar fell to less than $1.33 against the euro, its weakest since early January. The fall spurred speculative funds into energy and away form foreign exchange markets.

-cut-

Several OPEC ministers have said they see no need to raise output ahead of the group's meeting in the Iranian city of Isfahan next week.

-cut-

Venezuela, Qatar and Algeria have all come out against raising output, and OPEC president Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah of Kuwait said on Sunday that although prices were high, the market was well-supplied.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050308/markets_oil_4.html

[ozymandius]

35. Greetings everyone. Here's a 12:48 snapshot.

 Market Summary
Dow 10,933.15 -3.71 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,081.48 -8.73 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,221.94 -3.37 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 43.85 +0.81 (+1.88%)

NYSE Volume 788,621,000
Nasdaq Volume 941,099,000

12:30PM: More of the same as broad-based weakness in technology continues to pressure equities... Meanwhile, Qualcomm (QCOM 37.12 -0.27), which provided an impetus behind yesterday's Nasdaq rally after it raised Q2 EPS guidance, has been in focus again... The company has increased its dividend 29% (to $0.09 from $0.07), announced a $2.0 bln stock buyback program and said that Dr. Paul E. Jacobs will be promoted to CEO (effective July 1) as current CEO Dr. Irwin Mark Jacobs will step down but stay on as chairman...

12:00PM: Bearish tone persists in stocks midday as TXN's disappointing mid-quarter update, rising oil prices, higher bond yields and mixed earnings reports hold virtually every sector in negative territory... Texas Instruments (TXN 26.60 -0.77) has narrowed the upper end of its Q1 earnings and revenue forecasts, citing softer than expected demand for chips used in TVs and projectors...

The disappointment, coupled with a warning by Japan's Fair Trade Commission that Intel (INTC 24.98 -0.13) has violated antitrust laws, has taken some of the life out of the semiconductor space, as investors await mid-quarter updates from XLNX, ALTR and INTC... Yesterday, chip stocks led the charge behind a 1.0% rally in the Nasdaq... A 1.7% surge in crude oil prices to almost $55/bbl, amid ongoing uncertainty about OPEC's production plans at its upcoming meeting (Mar. 16), and a sell off bonds has underpinned a negative tone...

[54anickel]

36. 11:52AM Treasury Market Stumbles on Global Supply

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

In Play

The market hit a "supply wall," with initial price pressure coming in near assorted international and domestic bond offerings (including the $15B in 5-years tomorrow and $9B re-opened 10-yrs Thurs, and the 50-yr Italian corporate issue), while talk out of the ECB surrounded higher rates. Once the ball got rolling the technical selling kicked in and kicked the market further, selling was seen as the 10-yr yields backed up through 4.345% and look to push through to 4.385%.

That level should offer a price floor, although Federal Reserve speakers (St Louis' Poole will go 11:45ET and Gov Bernanke on the economy at 14ET) may serve as impetus to chase the market further (although 4.4% will remain a tough spot to crack). The dollar is getting hammered versus the euro, hitting a session high of 1.3363 from a NY open of 1.3254. The euro has climbed through technical levels and remains through 1.3330, a key support level. After 1.3380, 1.3440 is the next stumbling block. With no economic data to support the buck, the FX market is concentrated on US trade balance and Treasury budget reports out later this week - both usually spell trouble for the dollar. The dollar has roughly 0.5% of its value on the yen and is trading near its session low of 104.35. Gold has surged to $439.30 ( $3.70) on dollar weakness; April gold has two intraday attempts at $440 but has been unable to break through. The 10-trs are currently +15/32 yielding 4.371%.

[ozymandius]

39. GM to Customers: Buy This Car, Please

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - News), hurt by weaker U.S. sales this year and high inventories, will roll out a new consumer incentive program on Thursday that includes a $1,000 cash rebate toward vehicles that have been unsold for more than 120 days, dealers said on Tuesday.

The "March Madness" sale, which can be combined with other sales incentives, is GM's first national incentive program since the automaker named a new head of North American sales and marketing last week.

-cut-

One Michigan dealer, who described his January and February sales as "horrible," said: "We need something for momentum. I'm pretty optimistic that it will give us the momentum we need."

GM's U.S. sales so far this year have fallen more than 6 percent, and the automaker has scaled back production, as highlighted by last week's news that it would lay off 3,000 workers at a Michigan plant and cease production of the cars made there.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050308/autos_gm_incentives_1.html

[ozymandius]

40. 1:11 glance and blather

Dow 10,947.73 +10.87 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,083.77 -6.44 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,223.28 -2.03 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 43.75 +0.71 (+1.65%)

NYSE Volume 846,017,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,006,427,000

1:00PM: Little changed in the last half hour as the Nasdaq continues to trail its blue chip counterparts... On the Dow, McDonald's (MCD 33.22 -0.99) has paced the way lower amid weak same store sales results in its European restaurants while Walt Disney (DIS 28.51 -0.45) and Wal-Mart (WMT 52.51 -0.27) have also been among the worst performing blue chips... Minimizing losses have been gains in AIG (66.68 +0.86) which yesterday appointed a new director (Stephen Hammerman) with a long history of legal and regulatory experience amid an ongoing probe focusing on risk transfer...

[54anickel]

41. U.S. Treasuries Fall on Inflation View: World's Biggest Mover

Heh-heh, just in time for tomorrow's auction again. :eyes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=axkJHHsPCVbY&refer=us

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell, the biggest fluctuation of any government debt market in the world today, as some investors said yields were too low given the prospect for rising commodity prices to spark faster inflation.

The decline in the note was the most in more than a week, and comes as the Reuters-CRB index, which includes oil, corn, wheat and metals, rose to the highest since December 1980. Ten- year yields, which move inversely to note prices, yesterday touched 4.29 percent, the lowest since Feb. 28 even as the U.S. plans to auction of $9 billion of the securities on March 10.

``With yields fundamentally still too low and the longer- term trend being to higher rates, strength in U.S. Treasuries will be used as an opportunity to sell,'' said Paul Calvetti, head of proprietary Treasury trading at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. The firm is one of the 22 primary U.S. government securities dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve.

snip>

Bets Reversed

Ten-year notes rose the most in a month on March 4, gaining about 1/2 of a point, after a Labor Department report showed the unemployment rate rose last month and average hourly earnings were unchanged, raising expectations inflation won't accelerate. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's fixed interest payments.

Today's decline suggests that the rally was fueled by traders reversing bets that a strong report would send yields higher, as opposed to making bets on higher prices, according to some investors.

snip>

``The fact that we're going into the auctions with higher yields suggests they should go well,'' buoying Treasuries, said Cyril Beuzit, head of interest rate strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA. Stalling wage growth signals ``inflation may not be such a big concern for the Federal Reserve, lowering the risk it will accelerate the rate tightening process.''

more....


Gotta run for the day! Have a great evening and happy tomorrow everyone. :hi:

[MARALE]

42. Oil breaches $55 on bad weather

http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/08/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

April light crude jumped $1.16 to $55.05 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dropping to an early low of $53.70. The U.S. light crude contract fell overnight on profit-taking and amid expectations of a build in crude stocks when weekly inventory data are released on Wednesday.

...

After Tuesday's rebound, it appears speculators were continuing to bet on an eventual move to new highs, technical analysts said.

"Crude prices are up on fund buying...heating oil supporting this pop up," said a NYMEX floor trader.

Heating oil rallied amid the return of cold weather in the Northeast, the world's biggest consumer of heating oil.

Temperatures should average below normal through the upcoming weekend, turning much below normal Tuesday, forecaster Meteorlogix said.

[RawMaterials]

43. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10912.62 -24.24 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2073.55 -16.66 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1219.43 -5.88 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.375% +0.71

NYSE Volume 1,522,640,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,694,521,000



Close Dow -24.24 at 10912.62, S&P -5.88 at 1219.43, Nasdaq -16.66 at 2073.55: Disappointing guidance in the chip space and rising oil prices kept equities on the defensive, market breadth bearish and closed the bulk of sector leadership lower... Texas Instruments (TXN 26.28 -1.09) narrowed the high end of its Q1 earnings and revenue forecasts to reflect weaker than expected demand for chips used in large-screen televisions... The downward revision unnerved investors, who had just one day earlier ignited a rally in technology that boosted the Nasdaq 1.0%, and fueled a sense of caution that was felt throughout the market...

Also contributing to the overall weakness was a 1.3% surge in crude oil prices ($54.59/bbl +$0.70) - roughly a dollar shy of its all-time high ($55.67/bbl) - on news of surging gasoline prices, unexpected cold weather in the Northeast and amid ongoing uncertainty about OPEC's production plans at its upcoming meeting (Mar. 16)... In fact, commodity prices hit a 24-year high as both gold ($441.10/oz.) and copper ($149.80/lb.) touched new highs for the year at the expense of a weak greenback and amid fears that economic expansion will keep eating into raw materials inventories faster than existing supplies can be replenished...

The dollar fell to a 2-month low against the euro (1.3342) after reports suggested the ECB may hike interest rates to stave off inflation and against the yen (104.72) after a government report showed that the number of full-time employees in Japan increased for the first time since 1997... Higher commodity prices also renewed fears that inflation could accelerate and prompt the Fed to raise rates at a more aggressive pace, lifting yields on the benchmark 10-year note (-16/32) to 4.37%...

Treasurys were also under pressure amid supply concerns ahead of upcoming U.S. bond auctions over the next two sessions... Technology was weak across the board, led by declines in semiconductor following TXN's disappointing mid-quarter update... Hardware was also weak after Apple Computer (AAPL 40.91 -1.84) shares plummeted amid increased competition from Napster (NAPS 7.85 +0.22) and reports that Sony (SNE 41.01 +1.70) will relaunch its Walkman music player line... Homebuilding lost nearly 2.0% in the wake of weaker than expected Q1 guidance from Ryland Group (RYL 67.50 -4.31) and a surge in bond yields while ongoing consolidation in steel closed the materials sector on a downbeat note...

Weakness in drug stocks, led by a disappointing study that showed high doses of Pfizer's (PFE 26.77 -0.41) Lipitor increased risk of death from other causes, assisted in health care's decline while retail closed lower after Circuit City Stores (CC 15.81 -0.44) rejected Highfield Capital Management's roughly $2.4 bln acquisition offer and Kroger (KR 16.83 -0.89) missed Q4 expectations and issued a disappointing FY06 outlook... Even energy, which had been strong most of the day in the wake of higher oil prices, closed slightly lower...

In company-specific news, Qualcomm (QCOM 36.29 -1.10) increased its dividend 29% (to $0.09 from $0.07), announced a $2.0 bln stock buyback program and promoted founder Dr. Irwin Mark Jacobs's son Dr. Paul E. Jacobs to CEO (effective July 1)...CRB +1.0, DJTA -0.1, DJUA -0.7, DOT -0.5, Nasdaq 100 -1.1, Russell 2000 -0.9, SOX -1.4, S&P Midcap 400 -0.8, NYSE Adv/Dec 1132/2171, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1080/2031

3:30PM : Selling remains the name of the game heading into the close as the major indices continue to chalk up losses... Steel (-3.6%), homebuilding (-1.6%) and semiconductor (-1.2%) continue to pace the way lower, offsetting strength in gold (+3.6%), natural gas (+0.4%) and defense (+0.4%)... Meanwhile, investors can again expect little in the way of earnings reports and economic data tomorrow... While there are no notable earnings from any S&P components, the Fed will release its Beige Book to be used at the Mar. 22 FOMC meeting at 14:00 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 1268/2000, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1170/1897

3:00PM : Major indices still trade in lackluster fashion as losses in technology underscore a negative bias... In addition to weakness in semiconductor, computer hardware has also lost ground... Shares of Apple Computer (AAPL 40.91 -1.84) have plummeted amid increased competition from Napster (NAPS 8.07 +0.44) and confirmed reports that Sony (SNE 41.11 +1.80) will relaunch its Walkman music player line... Internet, however, has done reasonably well following upgrades on Yahoo (YHOO 33.49 +0.40) and Google (GOOG 187.63 -1.18) at UBS... SOX -1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1294/1953, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1245/1829

[MARALE]

44. Stocks tumble on tech woes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD5A83F89%2DDAA5%2D47D7%2DB639%2D0981969F3120%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=


"The question about earnings, the continued high price of energy and the recent gains all brought together a situation whereby there's pressure on the market," said Joe Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co.

The April crude contract rose 1.3 percent to close at $54.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following comments by a Saudi oil minister suggesting that OPEC will hold the cartel's production quota steady at its next meeting March 16. The contract touched an intraday high of $55.15

...

After shrugging off recent increases in producer and intermediate prices, Metz believes Wall Street will indeed face a revived inflation scare, not just in energy but in all the commodities.

"I think this is going to be a damper on the markets, finally," he added.

...

In the currency market, the euro traded above $1.33 for the first time since early January. The euro was last 1 percent higher against its U.S. counterpart, at $1.3342. The dollar also was down 0.4 percent at 104.66 yen. See Currencies.

Playing off the dollar's weakness, gold futures closed up $5.30 at $441.10 an ounce in New York. See Metals Stocks.

...

More