STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 2 March

[ozymandius]

Thursday March 3, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 323 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 80 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 136 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1194
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 2, 2005

Dow... 10,811.97 -18.03 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq... 2,067.50 -3.75 (-0.18%)
S&P 500... 1,210.08 -0.33 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.38% +0.01 (+0.16%)
Gold future... 433.80 -0.10 (-0.02%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

IGNORE THE SIGNALS

Never in my twenty years of observing the markets have so many clear strong signals been presented for view. They cover the entire spectrum. They span the globe. They are worth a quick review. It will be difficult to maintain order in their flow. Some are dire. Others offer up huge opportunity. Some qualify as omens. Most seem ignored. It is hard to know where to start. In deference, why not with our own Mr. Magoo, who gave the most important signal of all? He used to drive into guard rails. Mr. Greenspan is prone to hit the high guard rail and low guard rail.

FED CONUNDRUM: Our unjustifiably revered wise fool Fed Chairman admits he is confused. After six rate hikes on the short end, the long end has ignored his directives. Mark this event down on the bond ledger next to the Irrational Exuberance speech on the stock ledger. Greenspan is a very poor student of either economics or credit markets. His expertise is in providing liquidity in a monumental inflation era. He is the king of inflation, thus the lightning rod for its criticism. Low interest rates triggered a commodity bull market boom, which has caused a powerful cost inflation problem. That inhibits economic growth. The grandest carry trade the world has ever known has the Bank of Japan directly buying long-term US Treasury Bonds. Tokyo bankers also serve as an outsourced agent for monetizing USTBonds on order by our Federal Reserve. The US Fed has staggering inflation machinery at work in its Far East outpost. Is Greenspan so dense that he has not noticed the price inflation raging in the entire cost structure driven by the falling USDollar and nascent Chinese demand? Is Greenspan so stupid as not to notice BoJ clandestine actions in the last ten years? These factors each contribute to economic distress, lost wages, and liquidation prices. When inflation is redefined through revisionist textbooks, the bond market will occasionally contradict the Fed directives. Then again, maybe we should ignore the signal.

-cut-

FALSE SIGNALS ON USGOVT BILLBOARDS: My considered sustained analysis has that almost every single USGovt statistic is a lie, an intentional deception. Orwellian Stat Lab methods include hedonic adjustments for quality improvements, deletions in Q3 under political motives and for reasons pertaining to cost of living adjustments (federal pensions and Social Security), distortive seasonal adjustments, omissions in inflation indexes, and chain weighting. Advanced deceptive techniques have contributed to ruin each and every statistic disseminated like sheer propaganda from the USGovt. Let me repeat. Most major economic statistics are lies, and thus serve as false signals. They appear on grand billboards as pernicious advertisements. Maybe we should accept these signals, since foreign bond buyers and domestic investors are supposed do. My opinion is that official statistics should be slapped with fines for human indecency, and insult to intelligence.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Maeve]

2. I'm a bit confused, too, Mr Greenspin

How the hell am I going to survive the mess you've helped us get into?

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Maeve and everyone!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

With only nine months left in his tenure as Fed chief I suppose a letter writing campaign, begging his pardon, would be moot.

I'll check in later today with updates.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

8. Fed Tightening = Financial Crisis?

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

snip>

Automakers sold 16.3 million units on an annualized basis in February. Just slightly above the 16.2 million unit rate last month and just below last year’s 16.4 million. The refrain continued for another month, the domestic automakers, specifically Ford and GM lost ground to the Asians. GM sales declined 12.7% and Ford’s sales slipped 3.0%. Chrysler proved to be the exception, posting an increase of 5.5%. This resulted in the US manufacturers losing 190 basis points in market share to 57.9%. GM’s market share fell to an all-time low of 24.4%. The Asian automakers gained 200 basis points in market share to 36.1%. Toyota’s sales jumped 11.1% and Nissan’s increased 10.1%. Honda saw sales decline 7.2%. The lower than expected sales forced GM and Ford to further reduce production. GM now expects to build 1.18 million vehicles during the first quarter, 50,000 units below the forecasts given last month and 12% below last year’s levels. Ford lowered its projected production by another 10,000 vehicles to 910,000.

Lower production volumes are impacting the auto suppliers as well. This week, Lear Corp. announced that it now expects first quarter earnings to be breakeven v. the $0.50 to $0.70 per share it previously forecasted. Not only are the auto suppliers having to contend with lower production volumes, but raw materials have not abated from last years rapid raise. Michael Ward, an analyst at CreditSights wrote that higher raw material prices will reduce earnings in the auto supply industry by over $1.2 billion this year. Higher raw material costs do not appear to subsiding soon. China’s largest steelmaker agreed to pay 72% more for its iron ore.

On a year-over-year basis nominal GDP increased 6.4% in the fourth quarter. GDP deflator was 2.4% in the fourth quarter. This was the largest gain since December 2001, which was 2.5%. Economists have been raising their forecasts for first quarter GDP. Our friends at ISI have boosted their estimate for first quarter GDP growth by 50 basis points in each of the past three weeks. On February 7, the leading economic research firm’s first quarter estimate for GDP growth was 3.0%. Last week, they raised their forecast to 4.5% saying they are “getting out of the way of the truck.” In the same note, Ed Hyman reminded us that every Fed tightening cycle has brought a financial crisis. Here is his list.

Fed Tightening Cycle / Financial Crisis
1970 Penn Central
1974 Franklin National
1980 First Penn / Latin America
1984 Continental Illinois
1987 Black Monday
1990 S&L Crisis
1994 Mexico
1997 Pac Rim / Russia / LTCM
2000 NASDAQ

The financial crisis that transpired with the tightening cycle is usually tied to what the “hot trade” was during the economic expansion. Could mortgage finance be the financial crisis of 2005? According to the fourth quarter report from OFHEO, the average US home price rose 11.2%, the largest increase since 1979. Of course, in 1979 inflation was running at a double-digit rate.

[54anickel]

9. Greenspan Says Federal Budget Deficits Are 'Unsustainable'

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/03/politics/03deficit.html

WASHINGTON, March 2 - Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned on Wednesday that the federal budget deficits were "unsustainable," and he urged Congress to scrutinize both spending and taxes to solve the problem.

Mr. Greenspan also warned that the deficits could be driven sharply higher by costs connected to the aging of the baby boom generation, particularly entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. While reiterating his support for President Bush's plan to offer private accounts as part of overhauling Social Security, Mr. Greenspan urged lawmakers to tackle the program's problems now, rather than later.

The assessment was Mr. Greenspan's gloomiest to date about the government's budget straits. Unless Congress takes major action to reduce the deficits, preferably, he said, by deep cuts in spending, annual budgetary shortfalls will continue and closing those gaps will become even more difficult.

Though Mr. Greenspan has made similar pleas in the past, he spoke more urgently on Wednesday and disagreed more adamantly with Republican lawmakers and Mr. Bush, who have steadfastly refused to put restrictions on new tax cuts.

"Addressing the government's own imbalances will require scrutiny of both spending and taxes," Mr. Greenspan told members of the House Budget Committee. "However, tax increases of sufficient dimension to deal with our looming fiscal problems arguably pose significant risks to economic growth and the revenue base."

Lying Bastard! He's trying to protect those tax cuts.

[54anickel]

26. Greenspan Walks Policy Tightrope

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff030305.html

In early morning trading the U.S dollar rallied in anticipation that Alan Greenspan's Congressional testimony would include an upbeat forecast for the U.S. economy and hope for a narrowing of its fiscal and trade imbalances. As should have surprised no one, Greenspan did not offer these soothing words, and the dollar's rally fizzled. Instead Greenspan delivered a sobering, yet still sugar-coated, assessment of the significant structural problems confronting the U.S. economy. Clearly, Greenspan has perceived the contours of the cliff over which the U.S. economy now teeters. His comments seem designed to allow him to claim "I told you so" when it finally falls off, without actually having to bear the responsibility for pushing it over the edge.

The following is a summary of some of his more interesting comments:

Greenspan said that there is no difference between federal debt owed to foreigners and debt owed to Americans. This overlooks the fact that interest payments made to foreigners represent an actual drain on national income, while interest payments made to other Americans merely represent an internal redistribution of that income.

Greenspan said that our lack of domestic savings requires us to borrow from foreigners to finance our investments. While this is true, it overlooks the fact that most of America's borrowing has been to finance consumption not investment. The difference is that debts incurred to finance capital investments are self-liquidating, as they generate the cash-flow necessary to pay the interest and retire the principle, while debts incurred to finance consumption are not, and merely further impair the solvency of the borrower.

Greenspan's claim that foreigners are buying U.S. debt because it offers superior returns completely ignores the fact that foreign private investors have actually been reducing their holdings of U.S debt. The dramatic increase in net foreign holdings is wholly a function of increased buying by foreign central banks, which are perusing political, not financial, objectives.

Greenspan testified in favor of private social security accounts because such accounts would increase national savings. This claim requires you to ignore the offsetting reduction in national savings implied by the increased budget deficits necessary to fund the transition to such accounts.

more...

[ozymandius]

50. I just learned something new about Greenscam.

http://www.counterpunch.org/lindorff03032005.html

The Weasel Behind the Curtain at the Fed

Why Do the Democrats Pamper Greenspan?

By DAVE LINDORFF

-cut-

Greenspan has always been a Republican agent at the Federal Reserve, even in the Clinton years, but his support for private Social Security funds, and his latest warning that cuts in benefits for retirees need to be considered are both scientifically unjustified and unsupported, and politically craven, especially coming from a man who himself is already collecting the maximum Social Security benefit and who stands to walk away with a $100,000/year federal pension on top of that when he finally retires as Reserve Board chairman.

-cut-

It is probably worth remembering that when Greenspan left his private career as owner of a pension management firm, Townsend Greenspan, and went into government service, he left a company run into the ground because of his poor investment advice and market forecasting abilities. By the time he left, Townsend Greenspan had lost all its clients, who had all sought more capable advisers with better records.

[54anickel]

51. BWAHAHAHAHA!!! So he's not just nuts, but truly incompetent!..n/t

[Maeve]

3. Reports coming in--Initial Claims down slightly

WASHIINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 in the latest week to 310,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The four-week average of new claims dropped by 1,500 to 307,000, the lowest since October 2000.

The figures were in line with expectations of economists, who had an average forecast in a MarketWatch survey of 311,000 for first-time claims.

Meanwhile, the number of former workers receiving benefit checks climbed by 12,000 to 2.67 million in the week ending Feb. 19.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA7760B87%2DD47B%2D4B97%2D82DD%2D9C5F69E7F1CF%7D&siteid=mktw

[Maeve]

4. Productivity up

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8B41295D%2D6BAF%2D41F3%2D93A0%2DA940FEFFC623%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Productivity growth in the U.S. nonfarm business sector was much stronger in the fourth quarter than previously estimated.
Productivity was revised to a 2.1 percent annual growth rate from the 0.8 percent estimate a month ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a revision to 1.4 percent, considering the upward revision to fourth-quarter gross domestic product
<snip>
In the short run, fast productivity gains mean companies can produce more output with fewer employees. It's been a key factor in the slow job growth of the past three years.

It now takes 88 workers to produce what 100 workers could produce in 2001

[54anickel]

5. It's that crazy "more with less" mantra! Folks continue to do it and

suffer with the burnout, rather than say no for fear of losing their job. Long hours, doing the work that used to be done by 2 or 3. Faster, faster, cheaper, cheaper, more, more, more. Of course, the quality of their product is beginning to SUCK, but that's what the rework department is for.

I hear that's how it is at what remains of my old employer, and I know that's what's going on at Dresser Industries -"hubby" has been working 10-12 hours a day, 7 days a week for the last 8 months.

[54anickel]

7. Good morning Ozy, Maeve and all. Good to "read" you again Maeve

I'll try to stop by off and on during the day while I attempt to get some other "real life" work done in between posts.

Been rather hectic around here lately again. So much to do, so little time these days. Heh, think I need to dust off those old time management skills. ;-)

[54anickel]

10. OPEC Sec-Gen Can't Rule Out $80 Oil Spike

(Edit for link)
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=LRY3ZYLSDAIW4CRBAELCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=7793440

KUWAIT (Reuters) - Oil prices may temporarily spike to $80 a barrel during the next two years in there is a major supply disruption, OPEC's Acting Secretary-General, Adnan Shihab-Eldin, was quoted as saying by a newspaper on Thursday.

"I can stress that the probability that the price of a barrel of crude rises to $80 in the near future is a low probability," Shihab-Eldin told leading Kuwaiti daily al-Qabas in an interview in Vienna.

"However, I can't rule out the rise of a barrel of oil to $80 in the coming two years," he said.

"But, if the price rises to this level for one reason or another (for example a shortage of supplies from a producer nation by one or two million barrels per day), it's not expected that this spike will last long."

Prices around $50 or $60 a barrel, if they continued for two years or more, would increase investment to expand supplies and curtail demand, pushing down prices in the end, he added.

more...

[MARALE]

13. Update 9: Oil Prices Cling to $53 Level Amid Outages

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/ap/2005/03/03/ap1859857.html

Crude futures clung to the US$53 a barrel level Thursday amid traders' worries that refinery outages in the United States would strain supplies.

...

Outages, which limit the amount of fuel that energy companies can make, plagued refineries in California and Texas. The snags jarred a market already shaken by an unexpectedly big drop in refinery run rates last week.

U.S. refineries used 89.3 percent of their capacity in the week that ended Feb. 25, the lowest level since October, when companies were performing repairs after a hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico, an Energy Department report showed Wednesday.

Victor Shum, oil analyst at Texas-based Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, said Wednesday's price surge past US$53 was due to the "speculative element as hedge funds are up."

Investors are buying oil futures, betting that demand growth will outpace supply and push prices higher.

[54anickel]

11. Japan's Bond Futures Drop; Sale Draws Fewest Bids in 10 Months

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a4xtdWv.fln4&refer=japan

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese bond futures fell for a fifth day, the longest decline since October, after a 10-year debt sale drew the lowest demand in 10 months on expectations the economy will rebound from a recession.

Ten-year bond yields have risen almost a quarter percentage point in a month as stocks rallied. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose for a sixth day, its longest winning streak in more than four years. A U.S. report tomorrow may show the fastest jobs growth since October, helping fuel demand for Japanese exports.

``I'm hesitating to buy bonds,'' said Yasunori Kuroda, who helps manage yen fixed-income investments in Tokyo at Sompo Japan Insurance Inc., which holds the equivalent of $48.3 billion in assets. ``Stocks look strong as the economy is showing a sign of recovery.'' Sompo is Japan's third-largest casualty insurer.

snip>

Demand also declined on speculation the central bank will reduce the amount of money it is pumping into the economy from April. Adding funds is the tool the bank used in March 2001 to bring its benchmark interest rate to near zero percent.

snip>

Fukui is ``basically saying `don't just load up on JGBs thinking we're going to have zero rates forever,''' said Pawan Kalia, a trader in Tokyo at West LB Securities Co., a subsidiary of Germany's third-biggest state-owned bank.

Japan's economy will head in a ``better direction'' after it moves away from its current plateau phase, Fukui said in a parliamentary session today.

What was that phrase Greenspin used to use for the US "plateau" again? I'm thinking it's a case of "same shit, different phrase". Greenspin has mucked up the entire global economy during his tenure.

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think anyone is going to head back out of recession until we suffer a global balancing crisis. Gotta pay the fiddler sooner or later for extending the dance way past closin' time. :shrug:

[MARALE]

12. Update 1: Feb. Retail Sales Better Than Expected

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/ap/2005/03/03/ap1860360.html

Stores, particularly discounters, also benefited from the timing of the Super Bowl, which was played in February this year, after being held in January in 2004.

The International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS sales preliminary tally of 52 stores rose 4.4 percent, much better than the 3.3 percent increase it had projected. The tally is based on same-store sales, which are sales at stores opened at least a year, considered the best indicator of a retailer's health.

The strong February results came on top of a stellar 6.7 percent gain in the year-ago period. In January, the nation's retailers reported a solid 3.6 percent increase.

Wal-Mart Stores reported a 4.1 percent increase in same-store sales, surpassing the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call; it had forecast a 3.7 percent gain. Total sales rose 10.9 percent.

[54anickel]

14. Shipping derivatives gather head of steam

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b334ee50-8b68-11d9-ae03-00000e2511c8.html

Hedge funds and financial brokers are taking an increasing interest in shipping derivatives following the steep rise in freight costs prompted by the growth of the Chinese economy.

snip>

Derivatives trading on shipping rates, also known as forward freight agreements (FFAs), rose by 70 per cent last year to $30bn, said Axel Pierron, the report’s author.

Mr Pierron forecasts the market will increase by another 70 per cent this year, following growth rates of 80 per cent in 2003 and 20 per cent in 2002. Shipping derivatives trade is conducted in the over-the-counter (OTC) market and benchmarked against prices listed on the Baltic Exchange, which is based in London.

He said hedge funds were also attracted to shipping derivatives trading because of the volatility, as many investors viewed the market as an extension of the underlying physical commodity market.

But the talking heads keep saying there isn't a bull market in commodities, that you should stay in the equity markets. Bwahahahaha :evilgrin:

more...

[54anickel]

22. Congested ports warning for US importers

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ee966248-8b55-11d9-ae03-00000e2511c8.html

US importers can expect another year of supply bottlenecks and rising supply-chain costs because of congestion in west coast ports, transport industry executives and analysts have warned.

Surging trade with China is increasing the strain on Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together receive nearly 80 per cent of traffic to the western US. The Pacific Maritime Association, which represents west coast ports, predicts import volumes will increase by a further 14 per cent on average this year the same rate as last year.

Container ships bound for California last year had to wait offshore for several days before a berth became free, delaying deliveries to retailers and pushing up costs for carriers and shippers.

The ports, with their powerful labour unions, limited working hours and outdated technology, must increase investment and productivity if further disruption is to be averted, said the executives and analysts. “The congestion we faced last year is likely to be repeated this year,” David Lim, chief executive of Neptune Orient Lines, a Singapore-based ocean freight carrier, told a conference on trans-Pacific shipping this week. “There is a need for closer co-ordination between industry, government and other interested parties to make sure much-needed investment is not further delayed.”

Here comes the "more with and for less mantra" again. Damn those powerful labor unions! :eyes:

more...

[KoKo]

59. My God...they can't unload the Chinese Cheapies fast enough...

They need to resolve this fast, the buyers are waiting in long lines outside WalMart and the Malls to buy, buy, buy!!

Those McMansions need alot of crap to fill up the big rooms so the echo's aren't so deafening. And, after all, what is there left to do in America except Shop 'til you Drop?

[54anickel]

15. Fannie Mae faces billions more in new losses

Report: Regulator may force another restatement

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7076206/

NEW YORK - Fannie Mae may have to recognize as much as $2.8 billion in additional derivative losses because of new accounting concerns raised by its federal regulator, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The losses would be in addition to the estimated $9 billion in losses related to derivatives that the mortgage giant already has said it will recognize as it prepares to restate its financial results.

The Journal’s estimate of new losses comes after Fannie Mae’s statement last week that its regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), had identified new issues with its accounting. But its statement did not include specific details or indicate the likely size of losses.

The Journal based its estimate of the new losses on Fannie Mae’s second-quarter 2004 financial report, the most recent report it has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which indicated the company had $2.76 billion in cumulative losses on derivatives called mortgage commitments, or undertakings to purchase mortgages.

bit more...

Edit to add - HA! They were a strong buy on Tuesday - SUCKERS!!!!!
http://www.primezone.com/newsroom/?d=73571

[Maeve]

16. 9:52 and here's the current figures and a side of blather

Dow 10,851.29 +39.32 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,072.53 +5.03 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,214.24 +4.16 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 43.55 -0.24 (-0.55%)
NYSE Volume 125,492,000
Nasdaq Volume 186,669,000

9:40AM: Stocks open on an upbeat note following stronger than expected Feb same store sales, more M&A news and encouraging economic data... Initial jobless claims fell 1K to 310K, in line with forecasts and below 315K for the fourth straight week, pushing the four-week average to its lowest level (307K) since Oct 2000... Q4 Productivity has been revised upward to 2.1%, versus consensus of 1.5% and a prior read of +0.8%, mostly reflecting the revision to output in the GDP data of 0.7%...
While higher productivity can also act as a limiting factor for inflation, as it constrains unit labor costs, and a dip in claims suggests fewer layoffs, better overall perceptions of labor market conditions will come from tomorrow's Feb Non-farm payrolls data... Meanwhile, Feb ISM Services (consensus 60.0) will be released at 10:00 ET...

[54anickel]

19. Strange, how come M&A activity is down in Europe? In past articles we've

read that M&A mania tends to strike at the peak times in the economy - just before a downturn. Did Europe peak last year and is already on the down slope or what? :shrug:
All I know is that I really dislike all this M&A activity these days, always strikes me as the last ditch attempt to get the numbers up.


European M&A bankers have terrible start to the year
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/72287810-8b53-11d9-ae03-00000e2511c8.html

European merger and acquisition bankers have had one of their worst starts to a year in more than a decade, while watching their US counterparts gain brisk business.

January and February have been two of the slowest months for European M&A activity, with just 1,494 deals, worth $73.4bn (€55.7bn), according to data from Thomson Financial. That level of activity was last seen in 1994.

Last year there were more than 1,900 deals worth almost $140bn in the same period. The data show average deal value in the year to date is $5.4bn a week, compared with $12bn a week last year.

Paul Gibbs, head of M&A research at JPMorgan, said confidence in Europe was very low compared with the US, where a buoyant economy and a series of big deals had made people more positive. "European companies are not yet convinced of what their US counterparts are doing, but as the US continues to do large deals it will put pressure on European companies to follow."

Mr Gibbs said the fragmented nature of the European market made it harder to do cross-border deals. "In Europe, it is difficult to offer stock across borders and that is not helping the deal-making environment . . . people have to restrict themselves to cash deals."

more...

[54anickel]

17. High oil prices spurring Asia to seek alternative energy sources

So, how come the US isn't leading the way in this? Oh, that's right - nevermind. Don't want to offer any alternatives to the lucrative markets of the oil cronies quite yet now do we? Guess we'll just arrive a day late and a dollar short to this party.


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=3&u=/afp/20050303/bs_afp/asiaenergy_050303084835

SINGAPORE, (AFP) - High global oil prices are spurring Asian governments into accelerating their search for alternative power sources and encouraging energy conservation, regional officials said here.

Governments are increasingly diversifying their "fuel mix" to cut dependence on imported oil by developing other power sources such as natural gas, geo-thermal, hydro, liquefied natural gas and renewable fuels, they said.

Speaking at the annual Asia Power Conference here, the Southeast Asian energy officials said the region's oil-importing countries were helpless to influence soaring global prices and must learn to live with the situation.

snip>

"The key challenge for us is to get used to an era of high energy prices and get our systems right, get our generators as efficient as possible and get our home users and consumers to pursue energy conservation," Singapore Senior Minister of State for Trade and Industry Vivian Balakrishnan said.

Balakrishnan said there was also a "silver lining" in high oil prices because it was spurring investment to find cheaper and more efficient fuel alternatives.

Hey, didn't OPEC just say the higher prices would lead to more investment in finding more of that black gold? Hey Asia - you better watch your back!

more...

[chaz4jazz]

18. Your headline should read MAR 3

[ozymandius]

20. No coffee makes me sloppy. Thanks. n/t

[ozymandius]

21. 10:18 and everything's fine.... just fine...

Dow 10,858.16 +46.19 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,068.87 +1.37 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,214.37 +4.29 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 43.49 -0.30 (-0.69%)

NYSE Volume 281,761,000
Nasdaq Volume 364,598,000

[54anickel]

23. Dollar Watch (Where the heck is UIA, anyway? - It's been a long 4 weeks)

I really miss UpInArms!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 83.14 Change +0.06 (+0.07%)

Settle 83.08 Settle Time 00:35

Open 83.11 Previous Close 83.08

High 83.26 Low 82.98


The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates around the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 83.07. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. However, closes above last Tuesday's gap crossing at 83.45 are needed before a short-term low can be confirmed. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8187 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early- day session trading.

The June Euro was steady overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.08. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.668 is the next downside target. If June extends February's rally, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 133.395 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a mostly steady opening in early-day session trading.

snip>

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8078. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .8008 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at .7952. Closes above last week's high crossing at .8184 are needed to renew the short covering rebound off February's low. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The June Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9614. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at .9710 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9495 would confirm that February's a-b-c corrective rally has come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.


Dollar Awaits Services ISM, Oil Remains Above $53
http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp

The dollar is mixed as markets’ attention remains on surging oil prices amid concerns that supplies might take as much as a year to meet surging demand. Crude prices pushed to a fresh 4-month high at $53.20 after yesterday’s larger-than-expected 1.8 mln draw in US distillate oil inventories and a jump in net longs oil contracts amid speculators to their highest level in 8 months is lifting prices.

Traders will keep an eye on this morning’s ISM services sector whose index is expected edging higher to 60 from 59.2. But markets will closely watch the employment index for some clues on Friday’s labor report, which sipped to 52.2 in January from 55. Earlier in the week, the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 55.3 from 56.4.

On the jobs front, online Monster.com, reported a rise in its employment index to a record high of 122 in February from 120. The website tracks 1,500 employers is increasingly gauged as a measure for hiring.

Euro adrift at $1.3130s after PMI

EURUSD is easing off its $1.3160s high following further sign of languid economic activity. The Eurozone’s services PMI fell to 53 last month from January's 53.4, undershooting expectations of a 53.3 reading and further highlighting the slowing pace of economic expansion.

snip>

Yen steadies amid equity demand

The yen is being propped by renewed evidence of Japanese-bound capital as the latest data showed net foreign buying of Japanese equities rose for the 18th straight week at 65.65 billion yen. For the month of February, foreign net buying of Japanese stocks reached 764.2 billion yen, up for the 9th straight month.

more...


Dollar up after productivity, claims data
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BBFA5839F%2D5E78%2D4E94%2DBC21%2DFF07206627B2%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar made modest strides Thursday after revised U.S. fourth-quarter productivity growth showed unexpectedly brisk improvement and the latest weekly tally of initial jobless claims was broadly in line with expectations.

Brian Dolan, Gain Capital's currency research director, said the currency markets reacted with restraint to the latest U.S. data, noting that investors are preoccupied to an unusual degree with the nonfarm payrolls report for February due out Friday.

The average forecast of economists calls for creation of 221,000 new jobs, following the addition of 146,000 jobs in January.

Dolan said the unexpectedly strong improvement in quarterly productivity was offset to some extent by the fact that overall productivity growth in the second half of 2004 was below that of the year-earlier period.

snip>

"The dollar could drop suddenly, if hedge funds sell it off. Fund managers are tactically long dollars, but have the view that a drop of 10 to 20 percent could theoretically happen, so strategically some hedge funds remain dollar short," Umemoto said. "That's why the dollar is trapped in ranges, between cyclical and structural expectations."

more...

[ozymandius]

28. Hear! Hear!

Where is UpInArms? Shall I send out messengers?

[54anickel]

33. Perhaps Tinkerbell would be willing to go out on a search mission -

there hasn't been much call for pixie dust on the markets lately anyway.

[MARALE]

44. Tinkerbell heard you

and brought out the pixie dust. Is it just me, or have the stocks been going up and down a lot more than usual?

[Maeve]

45. Stocks do seem to be fluctuating more wildly

As if the lemmings aren't sure which way to stampede...

[MARALE]

47. lol

That animation is right on!:yourock:

[Maeve]

60. That one is by radfringe

She was the guiding force behind the Stock Watch Thread for quite a while and is also quite the artist.

[54anickel]

49. *SNARF* I love that one!...n/t

[54anickel]

24. And you thought that I was gloomy! (Mogambo)

- Foreigner central banks took some more tranquilizers, took a deep breath, and stepped up to the plate last week to throw another $22 billion bucks into buying our debt and stashing it at the Fed for "safe keeping." This has given me a great idea, as it involves the two things that a successful business needs these days; technology and government money. The great Mogambo idea (GMI) is that

I will sell an electronic device to these foreign governments. The internal working title of the project is High-Intensity Money-Sucking Machine (HIMST), although in my official proposals this fabulous new gadget is called The Great Mogambo Buying-Power Detector (TGMBPD). What you do is to carefully unpack the delicate device and assemble it, making sure that you insert Tab A into Slot B, and then aim the thing at the Federal Reserve. Through complicated programming and powerful cutting-edge computer-chip technology, you can actually see the purchasing power of your money leaking out under the doors, down the stairs, out into the gutter and finally down a storm drain. And with the Optional Sound Enhancement Component Sub-System (OSECS), you can actually hear the rats in the sewer complaining about the stinking deluge.

Almost like they were assessing this, Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser have written an interesting paper entitled "Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005-2006," which is unwieldy as a title, and if it was me, I would have shortened it to "We're Freaking Doomed!" which is both short AND highly descriptive, which ought to win me a few brownie points for productivity on my next evaluation! They opine, "The rest of the world will soon run out of the capability to absorb more dollar-denominated debt. Foreign central banks, especially China, cannot borrow enough domestically to purchase all of the bonds that they need to maintain their currency peg, so they print the rest. This is driving an inflationary boom in China that will run its course eventually and lead to a crash. The end game of this global inflationary boom will be a dollar crisis: a reduction in US consumption, higher interest rates, collapsing asset markets, and a recession."

And you thought that I was gloomy! Hahahaha!

But our own execrable Treasury Department is still on a campaign to drown us all in debt, and Total Public Debt is now $7.13 trillion, up $24 billion in one freaking week! And if you take a TGMBPD and aim it at your bank account, you will see the value of your money leaking out.

snip>

- Throwing my stupid two cents into the Social Security debate, I take a gratuitous and needlessly vicious exception to Thomas G. Donlan, who is the editorial page editor and occasional writer of editorials for Barron's, and who has written one this week entitled "Rope-a-Dope." He decries the idea to increase the ceiling on wages subject to the Medicare and Social Security tax on the wages of the high-income people because, and I quote because you are going to love this, "A 6.2% tax on high payrolls would afflict the nation's most productive employees, and the parallel 6.2% on payrolls would raise the cost of productive workers to the firms that hire them." What crap! Just like everybody else, bonehead! Hahahaha! For one thing, I am supposed to fall to my knees, weeping piteously, boo hoo hoo, because the rich might have to pay the same percentage tax on their incomes as poor people have to pay? And this would somehow cruelly "afflict" the high-income employees? But, at the same time, the working poor people, who can barely scrape by as it is, are NOT "afflicted" by the exact same tax at the exact same percentage?

more...

[54anickel]

27. DOH!!! Here's the link

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty030205.html

[ret5hd]

35. so what is the more liely scenario...

(in your opinion)
after the coming crash:

hyper-inflation - all those foreign owned (and newly minted)dollars floating around reducing the "value' of our money

or

deflation - nobody buying anything but necessities creating a surplus of goods with no money chasing them?

neither scenario very good but whats your (and others) opinion?

[ozymandius]

37. Any impact of any crash will not be instantaneous.

If foreign investment suddenly evaporates, precipitating a bond crash, our government will be in crisis for funding of its pet projects and essential services. You will see a bunch of milling about on the House and Senate floors.

If bond holders (creditors) demand repayment of their paper holdings, this will deepen the forementioned crisis. What effect? I do not know.

If the stock markets crash a-la 1987 and 2000 - the ripple will fuse through the economy over a period of years. Too many safeguards are in place to allow a sudden collapse of the public and private financial infrastructure. Collapse it may - but softly.

You might try asking the sages in the Economic Issues forum - particularly of papau, Roger Ashton and Rapier2. They really have it all together.

EDIT: Of course, you may want to wait a bit - because someone here at the SMW, like Maeve, Julie Nelson, 54anickel and UIA probably have a clearer picture on this issue.

[54anickel]

39. Ewww, I've got a 50/50 chance of getting this one right!

I have no idea, but I'd be willing to bet on the hyper-inflation here in the good ole USofA. I would think the buck would greatly loose its purchasing power - heck we should be in the same boat as Argentina by now, the only reason we aren't is the fact that the greenback is the world's reserve currency.

Of course there is a good argument for deflation in "assets" and big ticket items that rely on excess liquidity (debt). Our "wealth" as Greenspin likes to call it will suffer a huge deflation (homes and equities). In this new global economy, someone will have money to chase that surplus of goods, it just won't be US bucks doing the chasing.

That's just my opinion, and is worth exactly what you paid for it. B-)

[ozymandius]

41. I'm with 54anickel on this one.

Hyperinflation would be the beast incarnate. Food costs, fuel costs and interest rates will rocket.

Deflation? Probably - but mostly on the thigs we do not need like gadget electronics and other non-essentials that are constantly figured into the CPI numbers.

[KoKo]

55. Re...Home Assets..

Friends who decided they had to get into the Real Estate Boom in Florida where "flipping" seems to be the thing to do, were told by a real estate agent down there not to worry if we are in a "Bubble." Foreign Investors would pick up their property if the US buyers couldn't afford it anymore. The agent said ..."these properties will seem cheap to the Europeans because of the dollar devaluation if our economy gets into big trouble."

That's Florida and maybe California,where Asian buyers might step in, but what about the rest of us? What happens to our "home equity" in places that aren't near the water or on a lake or golf course? :eyes:

So, it sounds like for "some" the Bubble will work out, if this agents dreams come true, but the rest of us will have some big problems if we've used our "homes" to live on because of job loss or other policies of the Bushies.

Some of you might remember before Clinton when the Japanese were buying up real estate all over, and then they got stuck holding the bag? I don't know if the Japanese would go for the bait again, but maybe the Bushies can convince the Chinese they need some nice property near the shore and maybe lots of empty office buildings and shopping malls if worse comes to worse. They have to do something with all that money they've invested in us. I hear the South Koreans own alot of our debt also. Maybe the Reverend Moon can can put together a consortium to buy some more houses to indocrinate those who will be left homeless if the crash occurs and folks can't declare bankruptcy. :crazy:

[54anickel]

25. 11:08 - Where'd all those buyers head off to?

Dow 10,831.78 +19.81 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,063.57 -3.93 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,211.63 +1.55 (+0.13%)
10-yr Bond 4.357% -0.02
30-yr Bond 4.718% -0.02
NYSE Volume 509,738,000
Nasdaq Volume 620,912,000

11:00AM : Stocks show resilience at current levels but trade below their session highs... A recent upswing in crude oil futures ($53.45/bbl +$0.40), following a larger than expected decline in Natural Gas Inventories, and widespread weakness in technology, have accounted for some of the recent weakness... Semiconductor (-0.9%) has paced the way lower after Merrill Lynch cited sharp declines in memory chip prices, prompting downgrades on two Asian chip makers...
Investors have also taken note of comments from JP Morgan, which lowered its Q2 revenue forecasts for Intel (INTC 24.49 -0.03), to $9.2 bln from $9.3 bln, as order rates for analog, memory and logic chips remain depressed due to additional inventory work down and muted demand...NYSE Adv/Dec 1698/1217, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1368/1398

10:30AM : Major indices now trade in split fashion, as weakness in chip stocks has the Nasdaq trailing its blue chip counterparts... Meanwhile, the Feb ISM non-manufacturing index has shown a rebound in business activity, rising 0.6 of a point to a strong 59.8 and in line with forecasts, as new orders rose to their highest levels (61.6) since Oct and the employment component jumped 7.4 points to a record high (59.6) for the index... While the employment level doesn't provide much accuracy in estimating payroll growth, the record high does underscore improving labor conditions so far in 2005...SOX -1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1816/995, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1593/1068

10:00AM : Market continues to trade at higher levels as buying remains widespread across most areas... Homebuilding has gotten a boost following strong Q1 earnings and guidance from Hovnanian (HOV 57.05 +1.58) while retail has attracted buyers in the wake of solid Feb comps... Drug stocks have climbed after the FDA approved labeling revisions for AstraZeneca's (AZN 41.10 +1.14) Crestor and Deutsche Bank raised their view on the Healthcare sector to Overweight...

Energy, financial, transportation and materials have also posted modest gains while semiconductor remains the only notable sector struggling to gain traction, following estimate revisions on Intel (INTC 24.50 -0.02) and Micron Technology (MU 11.28 -0.14)... Separately, Feb ISM Services has just checked in at 59.8 (consensus 60.0), but the market holds relatively steady in response...DJTA +0.3, DJUA +0.1, SOX -0.5, XOI +2.0, NYSE Adv/Dec 1796/786, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1541/923

[ozymandius]

29. Caveat emptor. They must be reading Mogambo.

Dow 10,809.39 -2.58 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,054.74 -12.76 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,208.17 -1.91 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 43.63 -0.16 (-0.37%)

NYSE Volume 658,343,000
Nasdaq Volume 823,671,000

EDIT: 11:50 snapshot

[ozymandius]

32. 12:24 downdate

Dow 10,782.42 -29.55 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,050.79 -16.71 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,205.96 -4.12 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 43.75 -0.04 (-0.09%)

NYSE Volume 785,179,000
Nasdaq Volume 978,188,000

[MARALE]

30. Stocks Mixed Despite Strong Retail Sales

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/ap/2005/03/03/ap1861058.html

While the day's economic data was encouraging, analysts said the markets were in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the government's monthly report on jobs creation, due Friday.

"If we see a positive jobs report tomorrow, the market appears poised to move higher, to new 2000 highs," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC. "If that were to happen, as an investor, you want to keep a close eye on volume and breadth in the days ahead, as that will determine the strength of the advance."

...

Some of the pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has lagged behind the other indexes since the first of the year, came from the volatile chip sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, down 1.02 percent, has either fallen or advanced at least 1 percent each day, reflecting a great deal of uncertainty among tech investors.

Meanwhile, the favorable revision on worker productivity eased inflation worries and helped bonds rally, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.36 percent from 4.38 percent late Wednesday. Oil prices remained a source of concern, however. Light, sweet crude for April delivery was up 38 cents at $53.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

[ozymandius]

31. Federal Reserve Apparently Disowns Alan Greenspan

Update <2005-3-3 0:2:31 by Armando>: From the diaries by Armando. I am especially interested in two things here- (1) Is there a split between Greenspan and the Fed on SS?; (2) When Greenspan has spoken on his own behalf only, what has he endorsed? The 2001 tax cuts come to mind, to keep Congress from spending the surplus he said. Ha! One last point - Greenspan was on the SS Commission in 1982-3 that pushed through the big payroll tax hike - in order to save Social Security then, or so they said. Now Greenspan tells us that that was a complete fraud? There really is no Trust Fund? If that's true what Greeenspan is saying is he supported the most regressive shift in tax burden - on to working and poor Americans and off of the rich - in the history of the nation. That's a hell of a thing.

What on earth is going on here? Alan Greenspan testified before Congress today about the supposed financial crisis on the way, and tried to place the blame on squarely on Social Security obligations.  He also talked about a number of fiscal restraints that Congress had imposed in the 1990's but left basically unmentioned the effect of the ridiculous Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, the staggering costs of the Iraqi War, and the rising expenditures under the Bush regime on corporate welfare for his political donors.  In other words, Mr. Greenspan basically got up in front of Congress and acted as a shill for George Bush, in a way that should embarrass the supposedly independent Federal Reserve Board.  

But one aspect of Mr. Greenspan's testimony today was largely ignored or glossed over by the headline writers -- Mr. Greenspan made his remarks on his own behalf rather than as Fed. Chairman.   This is a fairly unusual occurrence; Mr. Greenspan seems to testify expressly on his own his own behalf only when the Bush Administration wants him to push a policy initiative that's in trouble, to shift blame from Bush for a bad economy, or to predict good economic times are just around the corner.

-cut-


Two weeks ago, Mr. Greenspan testified on behalf of the fed and did not endorse private accounts, saying only:

"Beyond the near term, benefits promised to a burgeoning retirement-age population under mandatory entitlement programs, most notably Social Security and Medicare, threaten to strain the resources of the working-age population in the years ahead. Real progress on these issues will unavoidably entail many difficult choices. But the demographics are inexorable, and call for action before the leading edge of baby boomer retirement becomes evident in 2008."

Today, Mr. Greenspan, speaking on his own behalf, said:

"In my view, a retirement system with a significant personal accounts component would provide a more credible means of ensuring that the program actually adds to overall saving and, in turn, boosts the nation's capital stock. The reason is that money allocated to the personal accounts would no longer be available to fund other government activities and--barring an offsetting reduction in private saving outside the new accounts--would, in effect, be reserved for future consumption needs."

...quite an interesting take on things...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/3/2/214436/7902

[KoKo]

40. Interesting post....Kind of puts his "whoring" in perspective.

He wears two hats. But, leaves it to the "MSM" to decide which of the hats to choose. This is really disgusting. His comments were reported with near hysteria that US economy would be bankrupt if we didn't immediately save SS. (From that idiot Jack Cafferty this morning on CNN)

If the Bushies are getting worried about their Supply Side economy tanking this Summer (some predictions are that late Summer and into '06 the "stuff's gonnna hit the fan") then it makes sense that they are setting up SS to be blamed for Market Dive. It will be because the Congress refused to deal with the crisis in the markets. Either way they are determined to win on this and bail out Wall St., it seems. Whether the vote comes before the meltdown and they lose or by waiting until the meltdown and ramming it through. The blame for their failed policies will be put on SS and Medicare expenses.
:shrug:

[54anickel]

34. Gold: The Debt Trap

http://www.safehaven.com/article-2669.htm

Deflation was yesterday's crisis. Economic growth is today's. What is tomorrow's? We believe that it could be America's large and growing record debt load. In a single presidential term, the US has gone from a creditor nation to the world's largest debtor. This crisis has been building but the lack of consequences has lulled markets into a sense of complacency. Far from being alarmed, many Americans believe their indebtedness is a good thing. It is not. It is a debt trap.

For sometime we expressed concern about the unprecedented global imbalances in the financial system sustained by the ever-widening deficits in America's budget and current account, with accompanying surpluses by the rest of the world. In the 1960s and 1970s, total debt (government, corporate and consumer) was 140 percent of GDP. In the 1980s fuelled by junk market debt, it jumped up to 180 percent of GDP. Today total debt stands at 300 percent. That means the debt to GDP expressed in a ratio stands at more than 3:1. History shows that no company or household can exist for too long at that rate.

The American Financial House of Cards

Excessive spending and borrowing, sustained by cheap interest rates, has kept the US economy afloat. Despite six rate hikes, real interest rates remain at their lowest in 15 years. Consumers borrowed against their inflated real estate values and the US government was able to borrow with impunity, thanks to foreigners willing to write blank checks and recycle their US dollars. US households do not save enough and those in Asia appear to save too much.

The obvious and important point is that the weak dollar was not only a sign of gross imbalances in the global economy but allowed the Americans to consume much more than it produces. With financial liberalization and the explosion of derivatives, central banks and governments no longer talk about money supply targets, but instead about providing enough credit to the system. As such, the printing press has been working 24/7 allowing fiscally reckless governments, consumers and businesses alike to go on the biggest spending binge in post World War II history.

But It Has Happened Before

more...

[ozymandius]

36. 12:37 update and blather

Dow 10,780.86 -31.11 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,050.03 -17.47 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,205.83 -4.25 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 43.71 -0.08 (-0.18%)

NYSE Volume 828,581,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,030,880,000

12:00PM: Major indices remain under modest pressure midday, due to higher oil prices and weakness in technology, as early gains following solid economic data and strong Feb retail sales, have been erased... Initial jobless claims fell 310K (consensus 310K), pushing the four-week average to its lowest level (307K) since Oct 2000, while an upward revision in Q4 Productivity to 2.1% (consensus 1.5%) has eased inflation concerns and a strong read of 59.8 (consensus 60.0) on Feb ISM services has further underpinned good labor conditions...

Also, more than 80% of retailers have reported better than expected Feb same store sales as well, with Wal-Mart (WMT 53.00 +1.05) and several Dept. Stores carrying much of the load in retail... But most of the market's early enthusiasm has dwindled as crude oil prices have pushed through $54/bbl following U.S. refinery outages and a larger than expected decline in Natural Gas Inventories... Taking advantage has been energy (+0.3%), following reports of a potential merger between CVX and UCL, while airline (+1.2%) has shrugged off higher energy prices and rebounded from yesterday's 2.6% drubbing...

Drug stocks have also been strong following FDA-approved labeling revisions for AstraZeneca's (AZN 40.81 +0.85) Crestor... Every other notable sector has traded lower, led by broad-based selling in semiconductor (-2.0%) which has carried over into every other area of technology... Chip stocks have sold off, following downbeat analyst comments concerning sharp declines in memory chip prices and depressed demand, while losses have also been realized in financial, health care, materials, utility and transportation... Treasurys, however, remain a bright spot for investors, as yields on the 10-year note (+3/32) have fallen to 4.36%...

more...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[ozymandius]

38. updated blather at 12:30

12:30PM: Renewed wave of selling pushes stocks to their lows of the day as oil prices continue to make new session highs... Crude oil futures ($54.70/bbl +$1.65), which have surged 14% over the last month alone on OPEC concerns and cold weather conditions, have added another 3.0% to yesterday's 2.7% surge to 4-month highs... Disruptions at some Texas oil refineries have been responsible for the commodity's most recent increase while growing demand from industrializing countries like China and India continues to weigh on overall production capacity...NYSE Adv/Dec 1413/1685, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1183/1761

[ozymandius]

42. 1:59 snapshot

Dow 10,820.84 +8.87 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,057.20 -10.30 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,209.66 -0.42 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 43.81 +0.02 (+0.05%)

NYSE Volume 1,071,187,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,291,526,000

1:30PM: Blue chips bounce off their lows and briefly abandon negative stance, as oil reverses course, but now vacillate around the flat line... After surpassing $55/bbl just over an hour ago, amid comments from OPEC's Secretary-General that didn't rule out $80/bbl oil over the next two years, the commodity has since backed off its highs and now trades at $54.38/bbl (+$1.33)... While still high by any measure, profit taking in oil futures has provided some interim relief as most of the news today has been upbeat...NYSE Adv/Dec 1475/1677, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1305/1675

1:00PM: Indices continue to languish near their lows as market internals now hold a firmly bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE hold an 17 to 13 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold an 18 to 11 margin over advancing issues... The ratio of down to up volume reflects a similarly negative tone with a nearly 2 to 1 advantage at both the Big Board and the Composite, as total volume on the latter has just surpassed the 1.0 bln mark...

Early morning strength had pushed the Dow to a new 52-week high (10869.17) while the S&P 500 closed in on a new high of its own (1215.72), but surging oil prices have kept both indices fluctuating around initial support levels of 10785 and 1206, respectively... The Nasdaq, however, has been in a downward trend since the open and has also failed to find support near the 2058 level... NYSE Adv/Dec 1322/1797, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1138/1825

[MARALE]

43. Crude above $55 amid OPEC remarks

forgot link...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Futures+Movers&siteid=mktw&dist=

The April-dated light crude contract was up 2.7 percent, or $1.41, at $54.46 a barrel. It traded as high as $55.20, bringing it close to the all-time high of $55.67 hit last October 25.

...

Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International predicts crude prices will reach $60 soon.

"There seems to be no stopping the crude oil as the multiple factors of colder weather, higher demand, refinery disruption and supply concerns for products all weigh on traders minds," he said. "I expect to see a new record high by next week unless supply concerns are somehow calmed, which is unlikely."

...

"The gasoline situation is now getting critical," Kerr said. "For weeks, many analysts have been downplaying the grave situation gasoline stocks are facing this summer but now they are...acknowledging that there may be some serious problems."

[54anickel]

46. Greenspan Urges Simplification of the Tax Code (Consumption tax)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/03/business/03cnd-tax.html

WASHINGTON, March 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today that the tax system should be simplified, perhaps with some kind of consumption tax, to encourage national economic growth and personal savings.

Mr. Greenspan, testifying before President Bush's advisory panel on tax reform, said conditions had changed greatly since the last big federal tax overhaul, in 1986, and that it was high time to set things right again.

"Changes since the 1986 act have been largely incremental without the appropriate all-encompassing context that broad reform brings to the table," Mr. Greenspan told the group. "It is perhaps inevitable that, every couple of decades, drift needs to be addressed and reversed."

President Bush has made an overhaul of the tax code one of the two overriding domestic-policy goals of his second term (the other is revamping Social Security), and White House officials and Republican allies in Congress have floated the idea of some sort of consumption tax - basically, a tax on money that people spend, such as a sales tax, rather than on what they earn.

Mr. Greenspan spoke in his typically circumspect manner, no doubt aware that his remarks, however couched in caveats, have been known to affect the markets. "I would not presume to suggest the best specific path for reforming the tax system," Mr. Greenspan told the panel, which is headed by two former senators, Connie Mack III, a Republican from Florida, and John B. Breaux, a Democrat from Louisiana.

more...

[54anickel]

48. GACK!!! Fiorina Looks to Head World Bank

http://www.expressnewsline.com/2005/05/story2005-insight-Fiorina+worldBank+race-status-73-newsID-57.html

A Bush administration official said on Wednesday that a final short-list has not yet been completed, but "Carly" Carleton Fiorina, the former CE of Hewlett-Packard Co. is a top competitor for the World Bank presidency. Fiorina, 50, was considered one of America's most powerful businesswomen until the HP board forced out her in early February after the controversial $19 billion Compaq Computer merger she directed in 2002 did not produce its promised results.

She drew both effusive praise and criticism as HP's first outside leader. Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore said while Fiorina "wasn't let go from HP without reason," she was an impressive communicator and marketer for the computer company.

According to records compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, $8,000 had been donated to U.S. President George W. Bush's reelection campaign by Fiorina and her husband Frank.

In the race of World Bank presidency, Nancy Birdsall head of the Washington-based Center for Global Development, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and former head of a top foreign policy school Wolfowitz are also strong contenders. Other names circulating for the U.S. nomination include Michigan State University President Peter McPherson, Iowa Republican Congressman Jim Leach, U.S. global AIDS coordinator Randall Tobias and U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor. The London Times and Los Angeles Times have endorsed U2 rock star Bono for the World Bank presidency, given his activism in development, but he is not considered likely to get the U.S. nod.




World Bank chief eyes 'passionate' successor, but not Wolfowitz
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/135490/1/.html

BRUSSELS : Outgoing World Bank chief James Wolfensohn said his successor must be "passionate" about fighting poverty -- and denied that US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was running for the post.

The 71-year-old, due to step down in June after a decade in office, praised Wolfowitz's skills, but said Thursday that a report in the Financial Times was incorrect.

"He's not in the game so far as I know, because he's withdrawn his name," he told reporters when asked after talks in Brussels with EU commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso.

Asked what skills were needed as head of the Washington-based bank, he said: "I would like to see my successor be passionate on the question of poverty and on the question of human development."

more...

[KoKo]

58. Just what we need! "Ms. Merger" who managed to ruin

Hewlett-Packard. Another failed businessperson is welcomed by the Bushies. What qualifications does she have,FGS?

Frankly, I'd prefer Martha Stewart. At least she's paid for her "supposed crime" and is an excellent businesswoman with common sense. I'd trust her alot farther than Ms. Fiorina....:D

[KayLaw]

52. What happened to the price of oil?

I left home a bit ago to pick up my son, and when I got home, the crude price was no longer showing on CNBC! I checked the other channels but they're keeping it a secret as well. Is there anyplace on the internet I can find a minute-by-minute ticker?

[54anickel]

54. INO has a few charts

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CLJ5

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy


As to what happened, not sure - probably a bit of profit taking going on again. :shrug:

[KayLaw]

57. Very helpful

I bookmarked the first link.

But when I said what happened to the oil, I meant all day they've shown the price of crude on MSNBC, alternating it with the bond yields and the S&P, then suddenly, they stopped showing it.

[54anickel]

53. Senators portray bankruptcy bill as unfair

http://news.bostonherald.com/politics/view.bg?articleid=71401

WASHINGTON -- Stung by two days of defeat for their bids to revise a bill overhauling the bankruptcy laws, Senate Democrats are portraying the measure as making it harder for low-income, elderly and sick people to dissolve their debts while allowing the wealthy to shelter assets.

Through a day of debate Wednesday, the Democrats maintained a rhetorical accent on what they see as the inequity of the bankruptcy legislation. The Republicans, who hold the majority, maintained tight discipline. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, warned against "killer amendments" that could jeopardize the bill's acceptance by the House.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy , D-Mass., a leading opponent of the legislation as written, will try to get an increase in the minimum wage - a top priority of the Democrats - attached to it, aides said. Kennedy's proposal would lift the hourly minimum from $5.15 to $7.25 over two years.

Mostly along party lines, the Senate voted 59-40 Wednesday to reject a Democratic amendment that would have allowed older people to get special homestead exemptions to keep their homes when they file for bankruptcy. Currently, such exemptions are determined by the states.

Also rebuffed, 58-39, were two proposals focused on people whose significant medical expenses for illness force them to file for bankruptcy.

more...

[54anickel]

56. 3:12 and recovering nicely - wonder if the NAS can make it to the

waterline before the close.

Dow 10,847.15 +35.18 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,062.83 -4.67 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,211.37 +1.29 (+0.11%)
10-yr Bond 4.385% +0.01
30-yr Bond 4.74% 0.00
NYSE Volume 1,310,753,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,566,172,000

3:00PM : Stocks continue to trade at improved levels although the recent recovery effort seems to have stalled... One bright spot that continues to climb, however, is transportation, particularly airline stocks... Airline (+2.3%), which naturally has an inverse relationship to higher oil prices, since roughly 20% of total costs for air carriers are fuel related, has found renewed buying interest from investors following improved load factors, increases in traffic and an improving risk-reward profile...
Notable Dow Transports trading higher include AMR (+2.6%), LUV (+2.3%), NWAC (+2.3%), DAL (+1.9%) and CAL (+1.9%), which have offset weakness from trucking components like CHRW (-1.0%), EXPD (-1.0%), USFC (-0.4%) and YELL (-0.4%)...DJTA +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1854/1368, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1515/1530

2:30PM : Buyers return from the sidelines and turn the blue chip indices modestly positive as oil continues to relinquish early gains... Crude oil futures have recently fallen below $54/bbl, renewing sentiment for several large-cap names and turning market breadth on the NYSE slightly bullish... The Dow has witnessed the most strength after Wal-Mart (WMT 52.91 +0.96) announced a 15.4% increase in its annual dividend to $0.60 per share...

Boeing (BA 57.65 +2.35), however, has paced a limited list of gainers, hitting 3 1/2 year highs amid increasing optimism about strong demand for its commercial jets, while higher oil prices have again provided a lift ExxonMobil (XOM 62.86 +0.18)... An FDA approval for a revised label detailing risks about AZN's drug Crestor, which competes with Merck's (MRK 31.29 -0.31) Zocor, has pressured MRK shares, howver, while no other Dow components have lost more than 0.5%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1669/1553, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1437/1606

2:00PM : Little changed since the last update as stocks still trade in split fashion... Meanwhile, Treasurys have recently erased gains, as the 10-year note is now off 2 ticks to yield 4.38%... While the bond market overall has not been influenced by the rise in oil prices, uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's reported growth of Feb payrolls continues to loom... The dollar, however, has strengthened against the euro (1.3103) and the yen (105.33), with more impressive gains being realized against the latter, as traders believe higher oil prices will have a larger impact on Japan...NYSE Adv/Dec 1509/1663, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1299/1702

1:30PM : Blue chips bounce off their lows and briefly abandon negative stance, as oil reverses course, but now vacillate around the flat line... After surpassing $55/bbl just over an hour ago, amid comments from OPEC's Secretary-General that didn't rule out $80/bbl oil over the next two years, the commodity has since backed off its highs and now trades at $54.38/bbl (+$1.33)... While still high by any measure, profit taking in oil futures has provided some interim relief as most of the news today has been upbeat...NYSE Adv/Dec 1475/1677, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1305/1675

1:00PM : Indices continue to languish near their lows as market internals now hold a firmly bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE hold an 17 to 13 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold an 18 to 11 margin over advancing issues... The ratio of down to up volume reflects a similarly negative tone with a nearly 2 to 1 advantage at both the Big Board and the Composite, as total volume on the latter has just surpassed the 1.0 bln mark...

Early morning strength had pushed the Dow to a new 52-week high (10869.17) while the S&P 500 closed in on a new high of its own (1215.72), but surging oil prices have kept both indices fluctuating around initial support levels of 10785 and 1206, respectively... The Nasdaq, however, has been in a downward trend since the open and has also failed to find support near the 2058 level... NYSE Adv/Dec 1322/1797, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1138/1825

[ozymandius]

61. closing numbers and blather

 Market Summary
Dow 10,833.03 +21.06 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,058.40 -9.10 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,210.47 +0.39 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 43.83 +0.04 (+0.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,615,251,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,911,448,000

Close: Despite another surge in oil prices, blue chips found modest buying interest amid encouraging economic data and strong retail comps, while weakness in chips kept tech under pressure... Most signs early on pointed toward a healthy rebound for stocks, as the majority of catalysts were upbeat... U.S. workers were more productive than economists expected last quarter, as an upward revision in Q4 productivity to 2.1%, versus consensus of 1.5% and a prior read of +0.8%, eased inflation concerns...

Initial jobless claims fell to 310K, in line with forecasts and below 315K for the fourth straight week, pushing the four-week average to its lowest level (307K) since Oct 2000 and suggesting fewer layoffs... Then, the Feb ISM non-manufacturing index showed a rebound in business activity when it checked in at a strong 59.8 (consensus 60.0), as new orders rose to their highest levels (61.6) since Oct and the employment component jumped to a record high (59.6)... While the employment component didn't provide much accuracy in estimating payroll growth, which will be out tomorrow morning (8:30 ET), the record high did underscore improving labor conditions so far in 2005...

Couple those data with better than expected Feb same store sales from more than 80% of retailers and stable oil prices in the early going, and the underlying sentiment was bullish... But when crude oil futures surged past $54/bbl due to disruptions at U.S. refineries and gasoline shortages, and then briefly surpassed $55/bbl following comments from OPEC's Secretary-General regarding $80/bbl oil over the next two years, broad-based selling took its toll on virtually every sector...