100m could die in flu pandemic, says WHO

[pandemic_1918]

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?cg=BreakingNews-InternationalNews&ao=126272

Up to 100 million people may die within weeks if a bird flu pandemic breaks out, a senior World Health Organisation (WHO) official warned on Monday as he urged nations to make urgent preparations to mitigate its spread.

A global outbreak is almost certain and even widescale vaccination programmes will not be enough to halt its inexorable advance, the WHO director for the Western Pacific, Shigeru Omi, said in Hong Kong.

"The most conservative estimate is that seven to 10 million people would die, but the maximum range will be more -- 50 million or even in the worst case 100 million people," Omi said in his starkest warning yet of the potential peril from a mutation of avian flu to a form that may be transmitted by humans.

"It will come," he said during a flying visit to the city where the H5N1 flu strain first mutated into a strain lethal to humans.

Omi said it was impossible to predict when a pandemic will happen but said it would not take long to reach all corners of the globe.

"Before it would have taken a year to spread around the world but thanks to globalisation it will take just weeks. If we are not prepared the consequences will be serious."

[pandemic_1918]

1. WHO Does the Math

WHO is doing the math. If 1-2 Billion people are infected with H5N1 and the case fatality rate is 70%

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

then the number dead is closer to 1 Billion than the 2-7 million WHO estimated earlier.

[Swamp Rat]

2. Is this your only point to make here at DU?

Are we supposed to be scared? :scared: Are we to listen to the freepers you quote in another thread?

Welcome to DU

[porkrind]

31. Great Graphic, Swamp Rat

Nicely sums up the hypocrisy and stupidity of the religious right.

[Stella_Artois]

3. Don't worry

God will protect the You-Essay.

[SoCalDem]

6. I'm pretty sure that "our government" is not particularly worried

Whatever the casualty number, it will mostly affect people in the world whom they consider to be "liabilities".. Less poor folks, less demand on "their money"..(which is actually OUR money, but that's another story)..

You can see the callous response to the AIDS pandemic in Africa, and recognize it as republican "compassion" in action.. Depopulation (especially of young people, who are capable of taking up arms against our policies) is a good thing in the minds of these crackpots who have weaseled their way into power...

Third-world attrition is not a bad thing from their perspective.Less hungry poor people, less money for aid..:(

[pandemic_1918]

19. Target Population Median age

>>Whatever the casualty number, it will mostly affect people in the world whom they consider to be "liabilities".. Less poor folks, less demand on "their money"..(which is actually OUR money, but that's another story)..<<

The target population is another misconception. In the 1918 pandemic most of the deaths were 18-40 and initial deaths tied to troop movements.

The 2004 H5N1 also targets children and young adults (median age of fatal cases is 13)

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

and H5N1 is an equal opportunity infecter.

All of the sub-typed H3N2 human cases in the US this year are Fujian, which is named after its origin in Fujian Province in China.

If H5N1 achieves efficient human to human transmission, it will spread worldwide by trains, planes, and automobiles in a matter of days and the pandemic potential is VERY high

http://www.recombinomics.com/pandemic_potential.html

[SoCalDem]

21. Thanks.. you made my point.. (people of fighting-back age)

and with that mid segment of any population gone, the caretakers of the very young are gone or compromised, and the care of the older ones suffers too, since they are usually not strong enough to farm..

Without the middle agers, there go the teachers, doctors, shopkeepers, farmers..

[MrMonk]

26. "fighting back age"

It seems counterintuitive that the target age range (18-40, or 25-49 in another post) contains the same age group that should successfully "fight back" against the flu. A model for bioterror?


On edit: I took back the :scared: but the scenario still causes one to think. Perhaps it would be more useful to look at flu containment methods as modules for bioterror/biowarfare responses.

[George_S]

29. It's too bad more don't know how right your are.

For "survival of the fittest" to work, science and medicine have to quit saving those who are supposed to die.

It's God's will.

[pandemic_1918]

63. WHO Does the Math Again!

Looks like WHO doesn't like the math that shows 1 Billion deaths. They have comments in tomorrow's NY Times

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_fatality_rate.html

[izzie]

4. I am not worried. I live in a blue state and birds do not live in Hell

Their are some perks for being evil

[The Wielding Truth]

45. Thanks, izzie. I needed a good chuckle.

O8)

[elepet]

5. Hitchcock

The Birds?

[robcon]

7. Not an ounce of credibility. Totally alarmist nonsense.

Someone who says: ""The most conservative estimate is that seven to 10 million people would die, but the maximum range will be more -- 50 million or even in the worst case 100 million people," Omi said in his starkest warning yet of the potential peril from a mutation of avian flu to a form that may be transmitted by humans.
"

The we learn: "...Avian flu, he said, appeared to be entrenched in Asia following two huge outbreaks throughout the region earlier this year that killed 32 people in Vietnam and Thailand."

HUGE outbreaks? 32 people extrapolated to 100 million? Nonsense.

[Bono71]

8. Agree.

[peacemeal]

12. Unfortunately it's not alarmist

The outbreaks in Vietnam and Thailand WERE huge - among birds - because the bird flu virus in its present form is easily spread among birds, but not humans - not yet, at least. But flu viruses mutate rapidly and recombine with each other and almost everyone agrees that it is only a matter of time before the bird flu virus mutates into a flu virus that will be easily transmittable from one person to another. The more the bird flu virus spreads and the more people who catch it, the more likely it becomes that it will recombine with a human flu virus to create a new, more deadly (because no one would have any natural immunity to it) flu. And that is when there will be a pandemic.

Read about the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 to get a taste of what a disaster a highly virulent flu strain can cause - people (and especially those between 25 & 49) were dropping dead in the streets - it killed somewhere between 20 and 40 million people in one year - and that was before commercial aviation. Imagine what would happen today, with the thousands of airplane flights that hop across the world daily - imagine how quickly such a virus would spread.

The 20th century had 3 flu pandemics - the last was in 1968-69 with Hong Kong flu. We are due.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

30. The reason for concern is that a higher than usual percentage of

infected people died from this avian flu, and most of them were young.

This mirrors the pandemic of 1918, which I heard about from my grandmother.

She was living in a small town in North Dakota at the time, and two young teachers on their first job out of college died. Also, there was a Norwegian immigrant family living out on a farm nearby, and someone realized that the family hadn't come into town for a long time, so the sheriff went out to investigate and found the parents and three children all dead from the flu.

The flu also spread through military training camps and killed more soldiers than combat did.

These days, I would be concerned about college dorms, where hundreds of young people live under crowded conditions.

[pandemic_1918]

41. A Little Recombination

To get from 32 to 100,000,000 (or 1,000,000,000) takes just one genetic cross over

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[Terry in Austin]

47. H5N1 - not your father's virus

In his book Global Brain, Howard Bloom fills in the back-story of global flu pandemics and the current focus on avian outbreaks. With the H5N1 virus, the usual vector is bird to swine to human, during which it undergoes a mutation that the human immune system "knows" and can handle. Direct bird-to-human transmission increases the danger dramatically; if the virus mutates further and develops the ability to pass from human to human, it's a recipe for pandemic.

In the 1997 Hong Kong outbreak, public health officials acted quickly and culled the entire poultry population, an estimated 1.5 million birds, within three days. This rapid response is thought by many experts to have averted an influenza pandemic. The workings of this flu virus were so unfamiliar to the immune system that according to researcher Robert Webster, it could have wiped out "half the world's population"-- that's 3 billion victims.

[pandemic_1918]

65. WHO Doesn't Like Billion's

>>Robert Webster, it could have wiped out "half the world's population"-- that's 3 billion victims.<<

Don't say Billions. Between this morning's story in the International Herald Tribune

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_recombination.html

and this evening's New York Times

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_fatality_rate.html

WHO brought out its big guns with MANY quotes to play down the B word.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

55. I see ostritch feathers. I certainly don't see ostritch heads because...

...they appear to be buried in the sands of conventional wisdom.

[girl gone mad]

9. It sounds eerily like...

the early computer models used to predict the spread of AIDS, which time has proven wildly inaccurate. 20% of the heterosexual population was supposed to be infected by the mid-1990s. I grew up terrified that I would end up infected and dead within months.

I wonder if it's a modern phenomenon or if diseases have always been hyped to the public. It reminds me of the way advertisers use fear to sell and our government uses fear to strip us of rights. I guess the WHO needs a reason to exist, after all.

[robcon]

10. It also sounds like the hysteria about SARS and West Nile.

It sells papers, and it gets attention on the news. But the reality is much less than the hype.

[spinbaby]

11. In the case of SARS...

...the hysteria may have been a good thing. It was an extremely infectious disease with a high mortality rate. If it had been treated casually instead of energetically isolated, it could easily have turned into a worldwide pandemic. I'd far rather they overreacted to these disease threats than let them loose on the world.

[robcon]

13. I disagree about SARS. The hysteria was overblown.

It was alarmist nonsense, as shown in the NYT at the time...

Tuberculosis.. 2 million deaths per year, 8 million new cases a year
Malaria.. 1 million deaths per year, 300-500 million new cases per year
Hepatitis B Virus.. 1 million deaths per year, 10-30 million new cases per year
Diarrheal diseases.. 1.9 million deaths per year, 2.7 billion new cases per year
AIDS.. 3.1 million deaths per year, 5.5 million new cases per year
Measles.. nearly 900,0000 deaths per year, 30 million new cases per year
Dengue Fever..24,000 deaths per year, 20 million new cases per year
Influenza.. .. 250,000 deaths per year, 3-5 million new cases per year
Yellow Fever.. 30,000 deaths per year, 200,000 new cases per year

But the media hype was about...
SARS.. 353 deaths; 5,462 cases

SARS was sexy because it was new, and perhaps because there were cases in Toronto, not just Africa or Asia. Those 300+ deaths were regrettable, but among diseases, or communicable diseases, it was medically insignificant.

[pandemic_1918]

40. SARS Case Fatality Rate

The concern about SARS was the case mortality rate, which was about 15%. So far SARS hasn't escaped into the general population, in part because of quarantine efforts. SARS will be back, but for now it is not a major threat.

H5N1 however, has a much high case fatality rate and it can quickly recombine and gain efficient human to human transmission

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_SARS_case_fatality_rate.html

[Art_from_Ark]

66. Don't forget Legionnaire's Disease

potentially lurking in every heating/cooling system of big hotels back in '76.

And the swine flu scare-- remember that one? Swine flu could rival "The Big One"

And Ebola-- had the potential for killing millions

And E.coli. And the various hepatitis scares,

And has everyone already forgotten about the big smallpox scare of this past summer?

[amazona]

14. oh for cryin out loud

I'm really getting tired of scientists and fear-mongers wanting us to hate on the birds who have the mis-chance to have to migrate through Asia. <sarcasm> I'm sure all humanity will much safer when every migrating duck is safely exterminated.</sarcasm>

They issue the same warning year after year after year. You know, it gets old.

We seem to have very effective safeguards in the U.S. for fighting the spread of poultry disease. The USDA is not shy to de-populate millions of birds when they feel it is needed -- and even sometimes when some of us might feel they are going overboard. There comes a point where you have to assume that good people are on the job and there is no point living life in fear.

[depakid]

20. You don't get it

And, unfortunately- that's all too typical an attitude. Typically American I have to say. Go along your happy way and pretend nothing's wrong. "oh, they say this every year."

Well- NO THEY DON'T.

H5N1 is NOT the usual influenza A. Have a look at the CSR's.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/influenza/en/

What you'll find there is that there's a reservior of viri with human case fatality rates of over 70%. That means over 700 out of 1,000 people who contract the disease die. What should disturb rational people (and does disturb) epidemiologists is:

a) There's an entirely new strain of influenza that may break out at any time- and due to it's vector, has already crossed continents (albeit in its avian form);

b) Influenza viri mutate easly, and human to human transmission is not an "if" it's a "when;"

c) because this is avian influenza, the most common vacine process (involving chicken embryo's) doesn't work- it kills chickens- so even if there were sufficient influenza A capacity- which there's not- there's no way to manufacture vaccine until long after the pandemic killed millions;

d) public health delivery systems would quickly become overwhelmed in the face of an outbreak-

This is a serious matter that ought to taken equally seriously. Plans need to be in place- supplies of the only effective treatment- in this case tamiflu- need to be built up (although it would be a nightmare to try to distribute them to the afflicted- since they only work within 48 hours of onset) to save as many patients as possible. And contigencies need to b in place to shut down non-vital mass gatherings of people, where the disease may spread.

This is just sensible planning.

Unfortunately, sense seems to have left this country.

[amazona]

22. sensible planning...

...in China in practice will simply mean the destruction of the ducks, waterfowl, and other birds who use the flyway.

When there is nothing beautiful left in the world, there will still be flu, and it will still mutate in its human and swine hosts.

[depakid]

25. Believe me- I share your concerns about wildlife in general

The environment is close to tops on my list of priorities (I'm a dU'r, after all). But i don't think anyone's seriously proposing trying to exterminate all the waterfowl for this reason. Domestic stocks are another matter.... and in fact flocks have been massively culled both in Asia and in America (where another avian influenza H5N7, is endemic).

What i worry about is that the idiots in charge of public health policy these days don't listen to scientists- and won't take proper measures to deal with an actual threat before it happens.

Because it happens- it'll be too late. kind of like it's too late to enact responsible building codes after a hurricane.

[ilovenicepeople]

33. This year in the Fraser valley they had to destroy over 1 million birds

due to the avian flu virus.(the Fraser valley is in British Columbia,Canada)

[420inTN]

34. And how much more does WHO want in funding? n/t

[pandemic_1918]

42. Tamiflu

>>Plans need to be in place- supplies of the only effective treatment- in this case tamiflu- need to be built up (although it would be a nightmare to try to distribute them to the afflicted- since they only work within 48 hours of onset) to save as many patients as possible.<<

Although its the only anti-viral left, Tamiflu is pretty iffy

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

The situation at the tiger zoo in Thailand had much in common with a human H5N1 pandemic. I suspect the final score was

H5N1 - 147 dead tigers

Tamiflu - 0 saved even though used at 4X recommended dosage

http://www.recombinomics.com/more_tiger_deaths.html

(I doubt that the 298 tigers that survived were ever exposed)

[RPM]

15. Good, but...

... that leaves a long way down to get to a more managable 2B people that this world can probably support.

Not a bad start, though.

[heidler1]

35. You surly don't see this as an answer to the Social Security/Baby Boomer

problem. Bush would never have deliberately put this in motion by creating a vaccine shortage, or would he? If he did it's a typical Bush screwup, what with the damn flu killing off more of the productive younger people than seniors.

[RPM]

36. Social Security is the brass on the titanic, my man

That peoblem can be easily enoughed solved by ending the program or writing debt.

Feeding people is the real issue: how many people can we feed without an oil based agricultrual system?

No oil for:
- fertilizer
- tractors
- transportation
- refrigeration
- preservatives

yep - the carrying capacity for earth is 2B persons - we got a lot of excess baggage. And oil is a finite commodity

This little ant colony called earth is gettin too crowded for its own good.

And no - i would not put it past ** to pull a stunt to try to wipe the non-god-fearing portion of those other 6B off the map.

[Selteri]

38. The flu is dangerous

But so is ignorance.

Please remember that there are a number of alternatives out there that are presently being quashed.

[They_LIHOP]

60. Are you insinuating the poster is ignorant?

I WISH beyond all else that what you are saying about 'alternatives' were actually so.

But it ain't so.

There is no alternative(s) that will allow us to maintain 6Billion people, and the 2B (if that) that will remain will be living in conditions that make the dark ages seem like the renaissance.

It's not a question of 'quashing' (although if it makes you feel better, more power to you :) ) I'm afraid, it's a question of physics and chemistry and carrying capacities and other such immutable laws. Billions are going to have to die, one way or another, and it will be begin in earnest in the next 10-20 years IMHO...

[420inTN]

37. Any flu vaccine we have now wouldn't stop avian flu.

1) Vaccines are made for/from specific strains of the flu. Even if you get a flu shot, you could still get the flu from a different strain of the virus. It definitely wouldn't prevent a mutated strain of avian flu, unless we were incredibly lucky and the avian flu strain was similar enough to the vaccine strain. However, I doubt that we would be that lucky.

2) Most victims/deaths of a mutated avain flu strain would be in third world/developing nations that have fewer healthcare resources, such as Asia, India, and Africa. Also, the epidemic is most likely to originate in Asia, so they will probably bear the brunt of the epidemic, as with SARS. If an epidemic did erupt, travel to/from the affected areas would be reduced, therefore reducing the spread of the virus epidemic.

[pandemic_1918]

46. The Whole World Is Watching

>>Most victims/deaths of a mutated avian flu strain would be in third world/developing nations<<

Not even close. Right now the H5N1 fatalities are in Vietnam and Thailand and the case fatality rate is around 70% and the median age of fatal cases is 13

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

This is not because of poor health care. It is because the birds in Vietnam and Thailand have a form of H5N1 that has picked up mammalian sequences and is particularly lethal to humans

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_human_signatures.html

This virus kills very rapidly, and patients die from organ failure because the virus quickly spreads and attacks multiple organs. The virus is much more lethal than SARS

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_SARS_case_fatality_rate.html

(and SARS patients were treated in first class hospitals in Toronto, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan and the case fatality rate was very high in all locations - the only reason the rate was lower in Taiwan was artificial - many SARS cases were cremated before they could be confirmed).

H5N1 is very lethal, but so far reported human cases have been limited to Vietnam and Thailand. When the virus acquires efficient human to human transmission, it will distribute worldwide in days and the case fatality rate in the US will be the same as Thailand and Vietnam (and may be higher because if human to human transmission is achieved, there will be no room in hospitals (or funeral parlors).

WHO has gone from 2 million to 100 million, but the real number of potential deaths is really closer to 1 Billion (with a B).

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_recombination.html

[420inTN]

49. You're right, the world is watching

"Not even close. Right now the H5N1 fatalities are in Vietnam and Thailand and the case fatality rate is around 70%"

sounds like it is currently limited to the third world/developing nations.

"This is not because of poor health care. It is because the birds in Vietnam and Thailand have a form of H5N1 that has picked up mammalian sequences and is particularly lethal to humans... "

and which nations will most likely be the ones to develop, manufacture, and distribute antiviral medicines to combat H5N1?

"H5N1 is very lethal, but so far reported human cases have been limited to Vietnam and Thailand. When the virus acquires efficient human to human transmission, it will distribute worldwide in days..."

if the whole world is watching, then any spike in H5N1 contraction will force a quarantine of that nation and its population to prevent the spread.

"but the real number of potential deaths is really closer to 1 Billion (with a B)."

as opposed to ßillion (with a ß}? ;-)

[pandemic_1918]

50. Anti-virals for Pandemic Flu

>>and which nations will most likely be the ones to develop, manufacture, and distribute antiviral medicines to combat H5N1?<<

The record on antivirals is not very reassuring. Two older medications, Amantadine and Ramantadine won't help, because the H5N1 in Vietnam and Thailand already has TWO resistant mutations in the M2 gene.

All that is really left is Tamiflu. Tamiflu has been tested against a wide range of influenza A sero-types. Although it is effective against human flu like H3N2, activity against H5N1 from Vietnam and Thailand is much weaker.

Tamiflu was "field tested" when tigers at a zoo in Thailand were infected by eating chickens fed to them. The zoo started with 441 tigers and only a subset were fed the chickens (and only some of the chickens were infected). When a handful of tigers became ill, they were tested for bird flu and placed on Tamiflu (double the recommended dose and double the frequency). Over the next several weeks more and more tigers developed flu symptoms. This was almost certainly from tiger to tiger spread

http://www.recombinomics.com/tiger_trans.html

eventually 147 tigers were dead (45 from flu and 102 euthanized because they were so sick).

It is likely that the 298 tigers that survived were never exposed to the virus (most of the tigers were not fed chicken and tigers were segregated shortly after initial symptoms were seen).

The above sequence of events is a good model for a human pandemic. The tigers were endangered and valuable. I'm sure the zoo tried very hard to save the sick and prevent spread. The number saved by Tamiflu was probably close to zero.

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

[420inTN]

56. Possible H5N1 vaccine awaiting trials...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1100559073705_95968273?hub=Health

[prodigal_green]

16. Flu could pretty much be controlled

if people stopped keeping pigs and geese in the same area.

[depakid]

17. Are you trying to be funny?

because if so, somehow I think I miss your sense of humor-

[prodigal_green]

18. Nope

Humans cannot catch bird viruses and birds cannot catch human viruses, but pigs can catch both and spread mutated viruses to either population.

Most flus originate in Asia because pigs and fowl are kept in pens together.

Obviously, it is a lot more complicated than that, but separating these animals would go a long way toward limiting the quickly mutating viruses.

on edit: what is unique about avian flu is that it is the first recorded instance of a bird influenza jumping directly to humans.

[depakid]

24. That's more or less what I meant

H5N1 has already jumped to humans- straight to humans. No swine required- although swine are an obvious concern, since they harbor both common A strains and H5N1. The probability for genetic exchange is there alright- but that vector isn't necessarily required.

Big cats get N5N1 too.... And they also harbor A strains (apparently, they don't sick from human variants but they die from H5N1).

http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996352

WHO did issue a couple if CSR's back in August about the concerns over swine- but unfortunately, due to conditions in asia- from rural swamps to fetid slums- I think it's unrealistic to expect that swine & poultry raising habits can be changed substantially.

[pandemic_1918]

62. Humans and Bird Viruses

>>Humans cannot catch bird viruses <<

Tell that to the dead Thais and Vietnamese. The H5N1 that killed them was an avian virus and virtually identical to the virus that killed millions of birds (although the virus has picked up some mammalian sequences via recombination)

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_human_signatures.html

These mammalian sequences, such as the two Amantadine and Ramantadine resistant changes in M2 are found in H5N1 from humans and birds.

[slackmaster]

23. And they're saying this would be a BAD thing???

:shrug:

[Mr.Green93]

27. How many boards are you posting on?

What are you trying to do?

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[420inTN]

32. 6.2 billion could die in meteor strike, says NASA

Over 6 billion people may die within weeks if the Earth is struck by 5-mile wide meteor, a senior National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) official warned.

Really? Gee... thanks for the heads-up.

[goforit]

52. YAH........"Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!!!"

[Just Me]

39. Oh, well. We're ill-prepared and it's all Bush's fault!!!

Those right-wingers never did give a damn about anybody but themselves.

I suppose the only way to prove the foregoing is true is for some gawd-awful catastrophic event like this to actually happen demonstrating that the right-wing machine was so wrapped in the American flag and dollar and blood that they failed to prioritize the best interests of the American people.

[pandemic_1918]

43. Tomorrow's NY Times

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/29/news/flu.html

WHO aide warns of avian flu pandemic

By Keith Bradsher The New York Times Tuesday, November 30, 2004



HONG KONG A global pandemic of avian influenza is "very, very likely" and could kill tens of millions of people around the world, a top World Health Organization official said Monday.
.
Governments should be prepared to close schools, office buildings and factories in case of a pandemic, and should work out emergency staffing to prevent a breakdown in basic public services like electricity and transport, said Dr. Shigeru Omi, the organization's regional director for Asia and the Pacific.
.
Such arrangements may be needed if the disease infects 25 to 30 percent of the world's population, Omi said. That is the WHO's estimate for what could happen if the disease - currently found mainly in chickens, ducks and other birds - develops the ability to spread easily from person to person.
.
Deaths associated with the rapid spread of a new form of influenza would be high, he said.
.
"We are talking at least 2 to 7 million, maybe more - 20 million or 50 million, or in the worst case, 100" million, he said.
.
While many influenza experts have discussed similar figures privately, Omi's remarks represented the first time a top public health official had given such an estimate in public. But his remarks on the likelihood that the disease would start spreading easily went beyond the assessment of many scientists, who say that too little is known about the virus to gauge the odds that it will become readily transmissible.
.
Dr. Malik Peiris, a top influenza researcher at Hong Kong University, said that Omi's range of potential fatalities was realistic and consistent with current research into the A(H5N1) avian influenza virus. The biggest questions, he said, were whether the disease would develop the ability to spread easily from person to person and, if it did, whether it would retain its current deadliness.
.
"H5N1 in its present form has a pretty lethal effect on humans," he said.
.
A few analysts have suggested that the death toll could be considerably higher. Dr. Henry Niman, a medical researcher in Pittsburgh critical of WHO as too conservative, said that with more than 70 percent of the human victims of the disease dying so far, the death toll could, in theory, exceed one billion if the disease were to spread rapidly among people, with little if any reduction in the current mortality rates.....................

[Art_from_Ark]

44. Remember SARS?

Weren't they making similar claims about that?

[pandemic_1918]

48. Non-pandemic SARS

SARS came VERY close to be a major pandemic, but fell a bit short. SARS had a high case fatality rate, which was about 15% overall, but much higher in elderly (or middle age with underlying conditions).

SARS could transmit human to human, but peak levels of virus were 7-10 after symptoms, so the lag provided some time to intervene and quarantine. Moreover, SARS was spread by a small number of super spreaders. Had there no wedding in Hong Kong, there would have been no Metropole Hotel and no SARS outside of mainland China (and a few cases in Hong Kong). Had there been several super-spreaders like the physician at the Metropole Hotel, there may have been a significant pandemic.

H5N1 on the other hand, has a much higher case fatality rate and attacks young people

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

and can recombine to cause a pandemic that makes 1918 look like a walk in the park

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_recombination.html

[CAcyclist]

54. Thanks for posting this ,pandemic

Even if a lot of people here don't understand the seriousness of this threat, I do and I appreciate the information.

If we had a health care system that assured equal access and care for all and a publicly funded vaccination program instead of the corporate control we have now, the public would be better prepared and better protected and there would be a lot less suspicion of whether this is mere hype for profit-driven companies

[goforit]

51. A new weapon from Bush, eh???................

100 million???

Will Bush/Cheney chose to ethnic cleanse with
the bird flu????

Hey.....where is Judith Miller on this ....GERM?????

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

53. Are you Dr. Niman?

Is that your website in a lot of your posts? The one on recombinomics?

[flaminbats]

57. ohhh terrible!!!!

100 million out of over six trillion?

that could mean I have a 1 out of 12,800 chance of dying....ohhhhh I'mm sooooooooo scaried...just shitttting awayyyy in my panttts.

Almost as frightened as I was once without food or shelter...

Perhaps if Bush wasn't restricting the flu shots, those odds could be made better in this country.

edited because of my drunken cross multplying..

[Deja Q]

58. In America, or globally? Worse, will chimpy nuke Asia for this flu?

I mean it's the ultimate in a terra'ttack, yes?

[Liberaltarian]

59. I ALWAYS keep at least a month's worth of food in the house.

i can go on lockdown in a moment's notice.
btw- I'm retired, so going to work is not an issue.

[__Inanna__]

61. It seems like everything is going to hell

Curious...does climate play a role in transmission of a flu virus? IOW, if I live in a desert am I less likely to contract the flu vs. a very cold place? Also, from what I read, the flu shot (which I didn't get this year) would not have helped with this particular strain?

I feel like just hibernating until spring the way things are going :-(
Anyone know the symptoms?

Where's the good news these days?

[leftofthedial]

64. it would spread rapidly in crowded environments

like churches

so good