Reply #19: Actually, this time there's likely to be an increase [View All]

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Each year's COLA is based on the previous year's July-September period, so the specific number won't be available until mid-October. But this site, which tracks the potential COLA on a month-by-month basis, expects there to be one:

http://socialsecuritypotluckdotcom.wordpress.com/2011/08/19/ssa-cola-watch-august-report-updated-monthly/

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.1% in July 2011 to an index level of 222.686 (1982-84=100). . . . The 12 month change in the all items index remained at 4.1 percent for the third month in a row. The change in the index for all items less food and energy continued its upward trend, rising to 1.8 percent in July, with the shelter and apparel indexes contributing notably to the acceleration. . . .

As of July, the CPI-W supports a COLA of about 3.34%. I expect that the CPI-W will continue its increase in August, but I do not expect the rate to increase much. We are slipping back into recession, and this tends to be deflationary. I do think that the COLA will exceed 3%, but by how much is yet to be determined.

Remember, this month and the next two are the three critical months. Everything up through June was predictive but not material. Now it’s crunch time. The average CPI-W amounts for July through September actually determine the following year’s COLA.

The August report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing the August 2011 CPI-W, is scheduled to be released Thursday, September 15. Please check back here the next day.