Reply #2: electoral votes [View All]

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"Hope & Change" resulted in a few EV surprises in 2008, but I don't think there's any reason to expect those next time.

That means it will come down to 5-7 states to get the necessary EVs. The rest are already guaranteed D or R unless a very charismatic candidate can get non-voters to vote or voters to switch sides. Those swing states are not liberal (or they wouldn't be up for grabs), so don't expect a liberal-focused campaign.

The liberal base can be disgusted in 20+ states and D will win. The conservative base disgusted in 20+ others and R will win. The president needs to focus on the rest and that means focusing on the middle or focusing on the candidate and downplaying policies.

Yes, he needs money and volunteers. But it sounds like he's doing ok money-wise and he can buy the "volunteers" with a billion dollars.