Reply #12: vs. the word of someone who doesn't HAVE the data but makes it up anyway? Yes. [View All]

[FBaggins]

It's the ultimate straw man.

The claim about the hispanic sub-sample was entirely made up. There was nothing in the Gallup data to base the claim on (other than unsupported assumptions). It isn't possible for such a claim to be "convincing" unless you're predisposed to wanting ANY explanation for why the results aren't what you want.

Charlie Cook has made enough mistakes as well ridiculous comments over the years.

He's also been right more often then just about anyone else... for several cycles now.

Up until Pew made the point about cell phones versus landlines, none of these polling organizations highlighted the impact of this omission.

Riddle me this. How many of the major polling firms do you think actually omit cell phones from their sample?

Look back in 2006 and 2008 and you can see republican posts that sound just the same way. When the polls are against you, you grasp at any straw to explain why they're wrong. For some people it helps them sleep at night. Maybe it's cell phones (as if we didn't have those two years ago), maybe it's weekend polling (when everyone just knows that republicans are out having picnics and unable to answer)... or it's daytime calling that only picks up those unemployed minorities and not the republicans who have jobs... or it's simply the bias of the "left-wing media" that wants to bias the results of the election.

The story is the same. When your team is down by two touchdowns to your biggest rival, the true-believing fans are certain that the refs are in the tank for the opponents... or the other side is cheating and getting away with it... or the instant replay official didn't have the right angle.

So don't pretend that they're above criticism.

Of course they're not (and I've pointed out at least one of them in the LV modeling)... but that doesn't mean that every straw someone grasps at is actually valid. This is the third time that someone has claimed that one poll or another is leaving out younger voters... and each time they've been flat wrong. Now we also have a claim that they're data re" hispanic support is way off... except that no such data has been reported.