"I don't believe him," "it will not work" and a relevant response from President Obama [View All]

[ProSense]

The Afghan decision

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Most importantly, he spoke effectively about the logic of a clear time horizon, generating political accountability, and converting a brief military respite into lasting political gains through a clear commitment to ultimately withdraw troops. His direct vow that the U.S. did not seek occupation or endless escalation was well said. But the problem is that such commitments are inherently non-credible. To quote that great IR theorist Drake, we hear you talking boo but we just don't believe you. I haven't heard anybody yet say that they believed that Obama would really start drawing down in June 2011, no matter what he says. And yet the strategy depends upon that commitment being credible, because that is what is supposed to generate the urgency for local actors to change.

I believe that Obama and his team really want things to work out this way, and have carefully thought through how to work it. But when things don't go their way, will they really follow through on their promises to draw down? Few people believe that. And if they don't believe it, then the mechanism of pressure doesn't operate. So it seems to me that the best way for skeptics such as myself to help this strategy to succeed is to keep a sharp focus on the proposed mechanisms of change, demanding evidence that they are actually happening, and to hold the administration to its pledges to maintaining a clear time horizon and to avoiding the iron logic of serial escalations of a failing enterprise.

More later.

UPDATE: President Obama anticipated my argument today in his lunch with columnists yesterday:

"If it doesn't work, said Obama: "I think there is going to be enormous interest on the part of the American people and on the part of Congress in keeping me to my word that this is not a constant escalation."

Generating domestic pressure to make his commitments on a time horizon and this not becoming an endless series of futile escalations credible will be one of the most important things which Obama's skeptical supporters can do over the next year. And Obama clearly understands that. Also reassuring is Secretary of Defense Gates today, telling Senators that Afghanistan and Pakistan is unique -- i.e. we aren't heading into Somalia or Yemen. One of the great benefits of the long, transparent review process is that all of these arguments have been fully thrashed out and considered. Even if I don't agree with every decision made on strategy, I at least am confident that they thought about all of these objections and reservations in advance.

(emphasis added)