Gallup continues to tighten. (-9/-14 vice 11/17) [View All]

[FBaggins]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans remain in position to win control of the House of Representatives in next week's midterm elections, although Democrats are doing slightly better now than they were early in October. Gallup's latest two-week average on its generic ballot for Congress shows Republicans retaining a 48% to 44% margin among all registered voters, a 52% to 43% margin among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario, and a 55% to 41% margin in a low-turnout scenario. These likely voter advantages for the Republicans are slightly smaller than in previous weeks, reflecting in particular increased Democratic strength over the most recent days of interviewing.

An increase in Democratic positioning in the last weeks of the midterm campaign is not historically atypical, nor is it necessarily surprising in light of the campaigning and efforts Democrats are putting forth as they work to narrow the enthusiasm gap Republicans have enjoyed all year.

However, Democrats would need to generate a substantial narrowing of the margin among likely voters over the last week of this campaign in order to prevent Republicans from gaining enough seats to take over control of Congress. Gallup's statistical estimates based on historical U.S. House-vote data by party suggest that the Republicans need a 52% share of the two-party national House vote to be in a position to win control of the House.




http://www.gallup.com/poll/127439/Election-2010-Key-Indicators.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143996/Republicans-Remain-Control-Race-House.aspx