Charlie Cook: A Glimmer Of Hope For Democrats [View All]

[babylonsister]

Now he's walking it back? CYA? :eyes:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/po_20100717_5341.php

A Glimmer Of Hope For Democrats
A new poll suggests how House Democrats can keep their losses down in November.

by Charlie Cook

Saturday, July 17, 2010

snip//

Things got more interesting when 43 percent said that the phrase "supports a failed economic agenda" better described Democrats; 34 percent said it described Republicans. However, when people were asked whether they would prefer a candidate for office who "will stick with President Barack Obama's economic policies" or "one who will return to President George W. Bush's economic policies," the result was a 15-point advantage for the Obama approach, 49 percent to 34 percent.

In other questions, just 27 percent rated President Bush as having done an "excellent" or "good" job of "ensuring fairness in the tax code." Respondents similarly gave him a bad review on "helping the middle class," with just 28 percent saying he was excellent or good on the issue. Finally, just 14 percent said that Bush had done an excellent or good job of both "regulating Wall Street and the oil companies," and "managing the federal budget deficit."

Although some pollsters don't care for the "excellent/good" versus "fair/poor" questions because fair is neither positive nor negative, these are still ugly numbers for President Bush. However, when asked "Which is closer to your view of the economic agenda that Republicans in Congress would support if they win a majority of seats in Congress," just 25 percent said that the GOP would back "a return to George W. Bush's economic policies." A whopping 65 percent thought that the GOP would have "a new economic agenda that is different from George W. Bush's policies."

The bottom line is that even though many voters express disdain for Bush's economic policies, they do not attach those policies to a possible new GOP majority. If this midterm election is a referendum on Obama and the Democrats in Congress, the party is going to lose a lot of seats, very likely the House, and possibly the Senate. If the Democrats can frame this election as Bush versus Obama, even to a moderate degree, Democrats might be able to keep their House losses down. They don't have a great shot at succeeding, but they don't seem to have many promising alternatives.