CNN Poll: Democrats make gains in battle for House [View All]

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CNN Poll: Democrats make gains in battle for House

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

Washington (CNN) - A new national poll suggests the Democrats have improved their position in this year's battle for Congress, but they still have quite a way to go before their majority status in the House of Representatives could be considered safe at the ballot box.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that if elections for Congress were held today, 50 percent of the public would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, with 46 percent supporting the Republican candidate. That's a switch from CNN's last poll, conducted in late March, when the GOP had a 4-point advantage. The margins are within the poll's sampling error.

The generic ballot question asks respondents if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district, without naming any specific candidates. The Democrats currently hold a 253-177 advantage in the House, with four seats that the Democrats once held vacant and one seat that the GOP held vacant. Republicans need to win 40 seats to take back control of the chamber.

The poll indicates the Democrats received a bump among women and people earning less than $50,000 a year.

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From Daily Kos:

At this point in the cycle, the generic ballot isn't the best predictor of November's final results, but nonetheless this is a nice trend to see:

CNN, 4/9-11. MoE 3.5% (3/28 results)
Generic ballot preference
among registered voters:
Democratic Party: 50% (45%)
Republican Party: 46% (49%)

That's an 8-point swing in the Democratic Party's direction in the wake of the passage of health care reform. It's also the first CNN generic ballot showing the Democrats leading since mid-November.

A couple of other interesting findings from the poll:

First: In the (unfortunately) unlikely event Sarah Palin were to run for president, she'd be in real trouble. 69% of registered voters think she's unqualified to be President and she trails President Obama by a 55%-42% margin.

Second: Among Republicans, Mike "The Gay Basher" Huckabee is the leader of the field. Huckabee took 24%, leading Mitt Romney (20%), Palin (15%), Newt Gingrich (24%), and Ron Paul (8%).

There's a big gulf between the GOP's elite and their rank-and-file: Although Mitt Romney won last weekend's straw poll at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Huckabee managed just 4% of the straw poll vote of GOP insiders. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in the event Huckabee runs.